Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Top-down process modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

32 records · Page 2

PathTrace and MPVEASI: A Path Analysis Comparative Validation Study

Developed in 2018, PathTrace is a software package built with the intention of making path analysis simple and intuitive. PathTrace is a top-down pathway analysis software where a user is able to explore vulnerable pathways into a facility. The intention of utilizing a software tool like PathTrace is to characterize an existing physical protection system (PPS) and to upgrade the system to achieve a high level of response interruption, or probability of interruption (P I ) of the adversary. There are four steps for conducting path analysis using PathTrace. The first step is to identify an image to use to build the model and scale the model within PathTrace using a section of known distance (wall or fence perimeter, for example). The scaling process will produce a grid of cells through which the user is able to build a model. The second step is to fill out the grid of cells with four categories of materials: Barriers, Detection Areas, Jumps, and Targets. These materials apply associated delay and detection values to the cells in which they are applied. The third step is to represent the adversary and response forces. The adversaries are represented by their capabilities in interacting with the materials identified in step two, and the response is represented by how quickly they will be able to respond to an adversary attack. Finally, the user is able to take all of the information from the previous three steps and perform a Most Vulnerable Path (MVP) analysis. In this stage, the user is able to visualize vulnerable adversary pathways and reason about how to upgrade these pathways to provide a high level of P I .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Towards understanding the formation of internal fragments generated by collisionally activated dissociation for top-down mass spectrometry

Top-down mass spectrometry (TD-MS) generates fragment ions that returns information on the polypeptide amino acid sequence. In addition to terminal fragments, internal fragments that result from multiple cleavage events can also be formed. Traditionally, internal fragments are largely ignored due to a lack of available software to reliably assign them, mainly caused by a poor understanding of their formation mechanism. To accurately assign internal fragments, their formation process needs to be better understood. Here we applied a statistical method to compare fragmentation patterns of internal and terminal fragments of peptides and proteins generated by collisionally activated dissociation (CAD). Internal fragments share similar fragmentation propensities with terminal fragments (e.g., enhanced cleavages N-terminal to proline and C-terminal to acidic residues), suggesting that their formation follows conventional CAD pathways. Internal fragments should be generated by subsequent cleavages of terminal fragments and their formation can be explained by the well-known mobile proton model. Additionally, internal fragments can be coupled with terminal fragments to form complementary product ions that span the entire protein sequence. These enhance our understanding of internal fragment formation and can help improve sequencing algorithms to accurately assign internal fragments, which will ultimately lead to more efficient and comprehensive TD-MS analysis of proteins and proteoforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Code and Solution Verification Assessment of the CTF Thermal Hydraulic Subchannel Code

CTF is a thermal-hydraulics subchannel code jointly developed by Oak Ridge National Laboratory and North Carolina State University. Over the past seven years, the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) has made a significant investment in developing CTF so it can be used to model light water reactors, including nominal operating conditions, departure from nucleate boiling analysis, and transients ranging from loss of flow to reactivity insertion accidents. In addition to implementing new modeling capabilities and developing the user input and output interface, extensive work has been performed to improve the code’s quality assurance program, resulting in a development process that conforms with NQA-1 requirements. The CASL program follows the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) approach for assessing code quality, which emphasizes performing code verification(ensuring the code converges to the correct answer) and solution verification (ensuring the code converges for the intended application). Code and solution verification are used to identify uncertainty errors introduced by numerical approximations in the code and are important for demonstrating that the model is coded without error, which is an important aspect of the Best Estimate plus Uncertainty method. This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the code and solution verification testing that has been performed on CTF. A top-down approach is taken in which the intended CTF applications are presented, followed by the code features required for their modeling. These features are then linked to the applicable code and solution verification tests that demonstrate proper functioning. Past testing efforts are summarized, and new tests are added to help close gaps in the presented test matrix. Rather than performing “one-off” exercises, these tests are added to the automated CTF regression test suite to ensure continual code quality.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 4: Lessons Learned and Options for Community Engagement in Los Angeles

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. Building on the community-identified problems and solutions, and the analysis of the 11 strategies described in Chapter 3, this chapter continues to focus on the solution space through the lens of recognition and procedural justice. It centers the role of community engagement in energy utility planning and project development with a specific focus on how the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) can engage and work equitably with Los Angeles communities to cocreate a clean and just energy future for LA. LA100 Equity Strategies is rooted in the crucial role community engagement plays in restructuring the energy systems of cities, states, and nations. Scholarship on wind, solar, and other transitional energy technologies and projects has documented that such engagement is commonly used as a top-down mechanism for adapting social practices to fit new technological innovations. Yet, understanding how the clean energy transition - with related changes in technologies, infrastructures, practices, and costs - will fit equitably into the existing socio-political context is a challenge that requires substantive collaboration with local communities. Any form of community engagement opens up government officials and utilities to opposition from their public. Meaningful engagement methods turn such dissent into a strength, embracing critical feedback - particularly from communities historically excluded from decision-making - as contributing to more grounded design and effective implementation. Leveraging this collaborative model to further rectify past and ongoing inequities in the social, cultural, and institutional scaffolding of LA, this chapter presents options and methods to support LADWP in launching a just and equitable clean energy transition. We approach community engagement as a critical process linking recognition, procedural, and distributional justice, outlining how LADWP could learn from past engagement, coordinate such knowledge organization-wide, and use engagement as a key tool for achieving energy justice and equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

LA100 Equity Strategies. Chapter 5: Low-Income Energy Bill Equity and Affordability

The LA100 Equity Strategies project synthesizes community guidance with robust research, modeling, and analysis to identify strategy options that can increase equitable outcomes in Los Angeles' clean energy transition. Grounded in the analysis of past and ongoing energy inequities and engagement with underserved communities, the project presents community-guided strategies that aim to operationalize recognition and procedural justice. Building on the community-identified problems and solutions, and the analysis of the 11 strategies described in Chapter 3, this chapter continues to focus on the solution space through the lens of recognition and procedural justice. It centers the role of community engagement in energy utility planning and project development with a specific focus on how the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (LADWP) can engage and work equitably with Los Angeles communities to cocreate a clean and just energy future for LA. LA100 Equity Strategies is rooted in the crucial role community engagement plays in restructuring the energy systems of cities, states, and nations. Scholarship on wind, solar, and other transitional energy technologies and projects has documented that such engagement is commonly used as a top-down mechanism for adapting social practices to fit new technological innovations. Yet, understanding how the clean energy transition - with related changes in technologies, infrastructures, practices, and costs - will fit equitably into the existing socio-political context is a challenge that requires substantive collaboration with local communities. Any form of community engagement opens up government officials and utilities to opposition from their public. Meaningful engagement methods turn such dissent into a strength, embracing critical feedback - particularly from communities historically excluded from decision-making - as contributing to more grounded design and effective implementation. Leveraging this collaborative model to further rectify past and ongoing inequities in the social, cultural, and institutional scaffolding of LA, this chapter presents options and methods to support LADWP in launching a just and equitable clean energy transition. We approach community engagement as a critical process linking recognition, procedural, and distributional justice, outlining how LADWP could learn from past engagement, coordinate such knowledge organization-wide, and use engagement as a key tool for achieving energy justice and equity.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review: 2.1.0.100 - Biochemical Platform Analysis

The objective of this project is to perform techno-economic analysis (TEA) to guide Biochemical Platform efforts, utilizing models for purposes of setting future R&D targets and tracking performance progress against those targets. Outcomes of our work are leveraged by BETO to guide program plans, as well as by other NREL/partner projects to quantify the impact of research on key technology barriers and to prioritize future efforts. This project provides high impact and relevance through establishing “bottom-up” TEA models as a basis for understanding the technical feasibility to meet “top-down” BETO cost targets. By providing a framework to translate technical performance to cost reductions in a biorefinery, our TEA models may be leveraged to maximize the efficiency of research funding towards the most economically impactful priorities, ultimately in support of BETO’s 2030 fuel cost targets below $2.5/GGE. In order to mitigate a key risk/challenge to this project in overly-constraining our analyses to a singular technology focus or TEA metric, our approach continuously re-assesses opportunities for better optimization and alternative technology pathway options, while maintaining close interaction with other BETO analysis partners. We have made numerous recent accomplishments rooted around identifying and working with the researchers to solve key technical and TEA/LCA challenges, reflected through notable improvements in State-of-Technology (SOT) updates over prior benchmarks.

biochemical↗

GeoTGo: AI/ML software for development of community geothermal resources

For effective and equitable outcomes in achieving the national goal of net-zero carbon emissions, communities must be not only included, but even lead the implementation of innovative green-energy technologies. Collaborations with communities should happen through informed decision-making, community-centered research and engagement of stakeholders at the local, state, and regional levels. Community-led research and implementation are fundamental to achieving success. These collaborations include rule makers, environmental regulators, clean energy industries, and technology researchers and developers. Unfortunately, many green infrastructure initiatives still adhere to a top-down and expert-driven process of site selection and design without awareness and acknowledgment of public engagement needs. This can lead to costly delays, including lawsuits, and ultimately less than desired or lacking outcomes as well as missed opportunities1. Geothermal, like many new technologies whose social and economic impacts are not fully understood, often cause disproportionately high adverse effects on disadvantaged communities. These effects can be related to human health, environmental, climate, and other cumulative impacts, as well as the accompanying economic challenges of these impacts. We are focusing our work on the needs of the New Mexico Native American Pueblos and Tribes (NMP&T). To address these needs, we are developing a novel web-based interactive software and user friendly interface called GeoTGO (https://geotgo.com) that provides everything that is needed for communities to better understand and develop their geothermal resources. We will bridge the gap between technology advancements and community needs by facilitating the interactions between the geothermal industry, regulators, stakeholders, and end-users. GeoTGO will merge data, software (including data analysis, text mining, artificial intelligence, and modeling tools), knowledge, expertise, and experience to provide fast processing and dissemination of the latest information about cutting-edge geothermal technologies to users and communities. More information about the project is available at https://envitrace.com/projects/geotgo.html.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Permafrost, Peatland, and Cropland Regions Are Key to Reconciling North American Carbon Sink Estimates

Persistent discrepancies between bottom-up, terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), and top-down, atmospheric inversions, have made it difficult to quantify the magnitude of the North American terrestrial carbon sink. Previous studies have compared aggregated continent-scale estimates of carbon fluxes from TBMs and inversions for all of North America, but this provides limited insights into finer-scale mismatches that contribute to the overall discrepancies. Here we evaluate agreement between TBM and inversion carbon flux estimates at 1° × 1° resolution to provide more direct insights into where models disagree and what underlying factors drive discrepancies. We find that the additional carbon uptake estimated by inversions, in just 16% of the area of North America, is large enough to account for the discrepancy between TBMs and inversions across the whole continent. The majority of these differences occur in permafrost, peatland, and cropland regions. In these regions, we find a higher likelihood of potential biases in the weaker sink estimates from TBMs, suggesting that the stronger sink implied by inversions is more likely to be realistic. However, the current observational coverage is insufficient for fully assessing the causes of discrepancies or the magnitude of biases in either approach. Encouragingly, improved representation of agricultural processes in a TBM led to better agreement with inversions in croplands. Efforts to accurately model cropland dynamics will help improve agreement between TBMs and inversions. Overall, this work presents a clear path for reconciling the discrepancies between inversion and TBM estimates of the North American carbon sink that have persisted for two decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Drivers of Phytoplankton Variability in and Near the Pearl River Estuary, South China Sea During Typhoon Hato (2017): A Numerical Study

The Pearl River estuary-coastal system in the Northern South China Sea is frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs) every year. Previous in-situ and remote sensing studies have found typhoons can enhance phytoplankton biomass and induce blooms in this region. However, the mechanistic links between phytoplankton blooms and typhoons have not been well elucidated due to the interplay of multiple processes along the land-ocean-atmosphere interfaces. Unravelling these interactions will have to rely on an integrated modelling system. In this work, we constructed a realistic, 3-dimensional, land-ocean-atmosphere modelling system with the marine ecosystem and sediment components for the China Great Bay Area. By using the integrated modelling system, we quantitatively investigated phytoplankton response to hydrological conditions variations under Typhoon Hato (2017), a strong typhoon case. Passive tracer experiments showed that with high river discharge induced by heavy rainfall, the residence time of Lingding Bay is as short as 15-day, less than half of that under the climatological discharge. The increase in freshwater pulse washed out the phytoplankton biomass within Lingding Bay. While for the offshore region, the source and sink terms analysis showed that the increase of phytoplankton biomass in the first week was because of the uplift of nutrient-rich subsurface water, while in the second week was because of the seaward propagated nearshore high phytoplankton biomass water. While riverine nutrients support phytoplankton growth in the third week, a large part of phytoplankton biomass was lost to zooplankton grazing, showing the system shifted from the bottom-up control to the top-down control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning. Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities. Regenerating the commons includes creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape community resilience decisions and experience related benefits. Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities or offices of community engagement. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings.

Callaham, Shannon↗

SMEFT ATLAS: The landscape beyond the Standard Model

The Standard Model Effective Field Theory (SMEFT) based on the unbroken gauge group SU(3) 𝐶 ⊗SU(2) 𝐿 ⊗U(1) 𝑌 and containing only particles of the Standard Model (SM) has developed in the last decade to a mature field. It is the framework to be used in the energy gap from scales sufficiently higher than the electroweak scale up to the lowest energy scale at which new particles show up. We summarize the present status of this theory with a particular emphasize on its role in the indirect search for new physics (NP). While flavour physics of both quarks and leptons is the main topic of our review, we also discuss electric dipole moments, anomalous magnetic moments (𝑔−2) 𝜇,𝑒 , 𝑍-pole observables, Higgs observables and high-𝑝𝑇 scattering processes within the SMEFT. We group the observables into ten classes and list for each class the most relevant operators and the corresponding renormalization group equations (RGEs). We exhibit the correlations between different classes implied both by the operator mixing and the SU(2) 𝐿 gauge symmetry. Our main goal is to provide an insight into the complicated operator structure of this framework which hopefully will facilitate the identification of valid ultraviolet completions behind possible anomalies observed in future data. Numerous colourful charts, and 85 tables, while representing rather complicated RG evolution from the NP scale down to the electroweak scale, beautify the involved SMEFT landscape. Over 1000 references to the literature underline the importance and the popularity of this field. We discuss both top-down and bottom-up approaches as well as their interplay. This allows us eventually to present an atlas of different landscapes beyond the SM that includes heavy gauge bosons and scalars, vector-like quarks and leptons and leptoquarks.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Accelerating Biomimetic Solar - Energy Harvesting: Mapping the Interaction Landscape of Plasmonic-Excitonic Hybrid Nanosystems (Final Report)

In general, excitonic and plasmonic nanoscale materials in close proximity show high potential for significant breakthroughs in energy related materials research. The interactions between these two kinds of materials result in coupled optical transitions (plexcitons), distinct from those of both the individual exciton and plasmon as well as from those of the sum of their constituents (synergistic effects). By linking together materials-research and physical-research approaches, this project contributes to a concerted approach on nanomaterials energy research. The project’s overall goal is to accelerate the development of well-defined plexcitonic model systems consisting of carefully engineered plasmonic and excitonic nanomaterial— essential for both gaining a fundamental understanding of plexcitonic nanomaterials and the development of novel design principles for biomimetic solar energy harvesting. During the 3-year project period and the terminal renewal with limited support for a 12-month period, we successfully synthesized and characterized (1) a robust excitonic nanomaterial and (2) a library of plasmonic nanoparticles as well as developed (3) a microfluidic platform for homogenous nanosynthesis as summarized below: (1) Robust Excitonic Nanomaterial. Supramolecular assemblies are Nature’s most successful material system for solar energy harvesting. However, photovoltaic devices based on artificial supramolecular assemblies continue to be stymied by disappointing efficiencies and poor stability. The conceptual failure may lie in current solar cell architectures, which rely on solidifying supramolecular assemblies as an ensemble into a solid matrix, neglecting the intrinsic fragility of the assemblies’ internal structure, thus disrupting or even destroying their delicate optoelectronic properties, that is, delicate Frenkel excitonic properties. Supramolecular assemblies may finally serve as usable light harvesting material systems for solar energy conversion technologies, only if they meet the following criteria: (a) Stability, that is, the fragile structure including its delicate Frenkel excitonic character needs to be stable, (b) Robustness, that is, resistant against elevated and fluctuating temperatures, and (c) Viability for device integration, that is, capable of being immobilized onto solid substrates. Here, by developing a nanocomposite via a tunable, cage-like scaffold design, we successfully provided stable supramolecular nanocomposites, that inhabit robust Frenkel excitons despite harming environmental conditions such as extreme heat stress. (2) Library of Plasmonic Nanoparticles. Naturally, current models describing plasmonic hybrid quantum states—plasmonic hybridizations—parallel those developed for molecular orbitals, equating individual plasmonic nanostructures with “atoms” and the plasmonic nanoassemblies with “molecules.” In analogy to organic synthesis, a suitably robust fabrication method would allow for “atom-like” manipulation of “molecule-like” plasmonic nanoassemblies; of high value for next-generation energy nanotechnologies. Despite this frequent comparison, current plasmonic nanoassembly fabrication methods favor top-down templating over wet-chemical synthesis, however, achieving precise control over nanostructure’s geometry and surface characteristics remain an art and a scientific challenge. The conceptual failure may lie in the current wet-chemical synthesis paradigm, as it relies on the accessibility of a multi-dimensional synthesis parameter space through limited, rather one-dimensional synthesis procedures by employing step-by-step approaches. Solution-based nanoarchitectonics for rational design of precisely built plasmonic nanoassemblies via solution-based fabrication may finally be possible only if multi-dimensional syntheses approaches are available that allow for comprehensive control over the plasmonic nanomaterials’ (a) Structural Properties and (b) Surface Properties. Here, by developing an innovative multidimensional 1,3-propanediol based polyol synthesis, we successfully provided control over the plasmonic building-block’s geometry (size and shape) together with its surface characteristics. Our results present a critical step toward the vision of a “periodic table-like” system for plasmonic materials based on straightforward wet-chemical syntheses for energy nanotechnologies. Developing deliberate modifications on this synthesis, we generated a library of plasmonic nanostructures covering the vast parameter space—opening the door for fundamental investigation of plexcitonic model systems. (3) Microfluidic Platform for Homogenous Nanosynthesis. Control over structural properties of plexcitonic nanocomposites remains a challenge due to current limitations in nanosynthesis techniques. Slight variations in nanostructure’s geometry impact their optoelectronic properties, demanding precise synthesis beyond the capabilities of solution-based (batch) synthesis processes. In contrast, the small, confined liquid volumes used in microfluidics—a reaction technique where the manipulation of fluids takes place in channels with dimensions of tens of micrometers—allows for homogenous synthesis conditions, providing excellent control of the reaction and, as a result, of the materials’ geopmetry and composition. However, thus far, the majority of plexcitonic systems has been developed via batch synthesis. Here, by successfully developing a two-channel microreactor, our microfluidic-supported synthesis approach combines the advantages of both microfluidics and batch platforms, allowing for precise spatio-temporal control over all synthesis parameters opening the possibility for homogenous nanosythnesis of well-defined plexcitonic model systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Equity-Centered Engagement Through Climate Resilience Policy in Massachusetts

Communities who experience disproportionate climate change impacts tend to be excluded from resilience planning (Vale, 2014). Those efforts typically follow top-down processes within established governance practices that are inaccessible to marginalized folks and reinforce inequalities (Malloy & Ashcraft, 2020; Adger, 2003). Such participatory planning processes may offer the public little opportunity to influence the process itself or the outcomes (Smith & McDonough, 2001). They might ignore important public values or alternative ways of knowing which can be critical assets in resilience (Few et al., 2007). Designing communities for climate action and resilience means creating opportunities for everyone to meaningfully shape those decisions and experience related benefits. Having the opportunity to shape one’s community is necessary for human flourishing (Allen, 2016). Resilience planning that shifts power into communities and focuses on social vulnerability can affect how people survive and thrive in a climate changed world. The Massachusetts Municipal Vulnerability Preparedness (MVP) 2.0 program is an attempt to change the status quo in resilience planning by bringing new voices into decision-making power, recognizing their labor, addressing root causes of vulnerability, and investing in social infrastructure. It aspires to build capacity for equity-focused community engagement within teams of municipal staff and community liaisons, and ultimately build social capital and community cohesion. My mixed methods research investigates implementation of this state grant program in several western Massachusetts towns. I am using document review, participant observation, and interviews to understand the MVP 2.0 process as written, how different towns navigate it, and how individuals make sense of their experiences in it. I seek to understand how those experiences explain relationships between engagement approaches, mediating factors, and process outcomes. I am interested in the conditions that allow for community empowerment and how a model like MVP 2.0 can shift conditions that hold systems in place. In a practical sense, our findings will help municipalities reflect on their work during MVP 2.0 and plan for future community engagement. They may be informative for designing future iterations of the MVP program and for other municipalities, offices of community engagement, and practitioners. The findings will also contribute to the participation, resilience, and climate justice literatures, by adding perspectives on equity-centered resilience and community engagement approaches in smaller towns and rural settings. References: Adger, W. N. (2003). Social capital, collective action, and adaptation to climate change. Economic Geography, 79, 387-404. Allen, D. (2016). Toward a connected society. Our compelling interests: The value of diversity for democracy and a prosperous society, 71-105. Few, R., Brown, K., & Tompkins, E. L. (2007). Public participation and climate change adaptation: avoiding the illusion of inclusion. Climate Policy, 7(1), 46–59. Malloy, J. T., & Ashcraft, C. M. (2020). A framework for implementing socially just climate adaptation. Climatic Change, 160(1), 1–14. Smith, P. D., & McDonough, M. H. (2001). Beyond public participation: Fairness in natural resource decision making. Society & natural resources, 14(3), 239-249. Vale, L. J. (2014). The politics of resilient cities: whose resilience and whose city? Building Research & Information, 42(2), 191–201.

Callaham, Shannon↗

Regional trends and drivers of the global methane budget

Abstract The ongoing development of the Global Carbon Project (GCP) global methane (CH 4 ) budget shows a continuation of increasing CH 4 emissions and CH 4 accumulation in the atmosphere during 2000–2017. Here, we decompose the global budget into 19 regions (18 land and 1 oceanic) and five key source sectors to spatially attribute the observed global trends. A comparison of top‐down (TD) (atmospheric and transport model‐based) and bottom‐up (BU) (inventory‐ and process model‐based) CH 4 emission estimates demonstrates robust temporal trends with CH 4 emissions increasing in 16 of the 19 regions. Five regions—China, Southeast Asia, USA, South Asia, and Brazil—account for >40% of the global total emissions (their anthropogenic and natural sources together totaling >270 Tg CH 4 yr −1 in 2008–2017). Two of these regions, China and South Asia, emit predominantly anthropogenic emissions (>75%) and together emit more than 25% of global anthropogenic emissions. China and the Middle East show the largest increases in total emission rates over the 2000 to 2017 period with regional emissions increasing by >20%. In contrast, Europe and Korea and Japan show a steady decline in CH 4 emission rates, with total emissions decreasing by ~10% between 2000 and 2017. Coal mining, waste (predominantly solid waste disposal) and livestock (especially enteric fermentation) are dominant drivers of observed emissions increases while declines appear driven by a combination of waste and fossil emission reductions. As such, together these sectors present the greatest risks of further increasing the atmospheric CH 4 burden and the greatest opportunities for greenhouse gas abatement.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗