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Modeling the Salar de Uyuni, Bolivia as an Equipotential Surface of Earth's Gravity Field

The salar de Uyuni is a massive dry salt lake that lies at the lowest point of an internal/drainage basin in the Bolivian Altiplano. Its topography is remarkable for its extraordinary flatness over almost a full degree of latitude and longitude. We surveyed a 54 x 45 km region of the salar with kinematic GPS in September, 2002 and found a topographic range of only 80 cm over the entire surveyed area. Furthermore, the survey revealed distinct surface features with several dominant wavelengths and orientations. Some of these appear to be aligned with orographic features that intersect the salar, leading us to conjecture that they are the surface expression of high-density mountains that have been buried by low-density basin sediments. Over the oceans, a similar correspondence between basin bathymetry and surface topography is exploited to map the seafloor using sea-surface satellite altimetry measurements, with the sea surface following geoid undulations due to the underwater mass distribution. On the salar, annual flooding creates a shallow lake whose surface also lies on a equipotential surface shaped by the distribution of underlying mass. The link to the actual salar surface is via the dissolution and redeposition of salt by the lake waters, which appears to push the system to an equilibrium of constant water depth and the coincidence of the shapes of the lake surface and bottom. To test our hypothesis about the origin of the surface features on the salar, we compare our GPS survey elevations with the equipotential surface generated from local gravity measurements in conjunction with gravity and potential values from the EGM96 global geopotential model. 50% of the variance of the GPS elevations can be explained by equipotential surface undulations from the EGM96 model alone, and an additional 40% is explained by the shorter-wavelength equipotential surface derived from local gravity. We examine the unexplained 10% of elevation variance from the standpoint of errors in the equipotential surface calculation and possible unmodelled surface processes.

Borsa, Adrian↗

Lunar basin formation and highland stratigraphy

Multiring impact basins, formed after solidification of the lunar crust, account for most or all premare regional deposits and structures expressed in the lunar landscape and for major topographic and gravity variations. A fresh basin has two or more concentric mountain rings, a lineated ejecta blanket, and secondary impact craters. Crackled material on the floor may be impact melt. The ejecta blanket was emplaced at least partly as a ground-hugging flow and was probably hot. A suggested model of basin formation is that the center lifts up and the rings form by inward collapse during evisceration. The resulting basin is shallow and has a central uplift of the mantle. This results in a central gravity high and a ring low. Later flooding by mare basalt has since modified most near side basins. Highland deposits of plains, furrowed and pitted terrain, and various hills, domes, and craters that were interpreted before the Apollo missions as being volcanic can now be interpreted as being basin related.

Howard, K. A.↗

Comparison of Land Cover Information from LANDSAT MSS and Airborne TMS for Hydrological Applications: Preliminary Results

Land cover information for the Clinton River Basin (Michigan) derived from LANDSAT multispectral scanner (MSS) data was compared with that from airborne thematic mapper simulator (TMS) to investigate the probable capabilities of the thematic mapper (TM) launched aboard LANDSAT-4 in July 1982. The preliminary findings for one 7.5 minute topographic map, Mt. Clemens West, are reported. Significant improvements in land cover classification accuracy were obtained using TMS data as compared with MSS data. Overall mapping accuracy increased from 49 to 61 percent with an improvement from 71 to 84 percent in the residential category. A combination of four bands with one band in each major region of the spectrum (visible, near IR, middle IR and thermal IR) provided as good a discrimination of land cover as all seven TM bands. Based on the improved land cover classification accuracy of TM, TM data has the potential to provide more useful and effective input to US Army Corps of Engineers flood forecasting and flood damage prediction/assessment models.

Gervin, J. C.↗

Surface Freshwater Storage and Variability in the Amazon Basin from Multi-Satellite Observations, 1993-2007

The amount of water stored and moving through the surface water bodies of large river basins (river, floodplains, wetlands) plays a major role in the global water and biochemical cycles and is a critical parameter for water resources management. However, the spatio-temporal variations of these freshwater reservoirs are still widely unknown at the global scale. Here, we propose a hypsographic curve approach to estimate surface freshwater storage variations over the Amazon basin combining surface water extent from a multi-satellite-technique with topographic data from the Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) from Advance Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER). Monthly surface water storage variations for 1993-2007 are presented, showing a strong seasonal and interannual variability, and are evaluated against in situ river discharge and precipitation. The basin-scale mean annual amplitude of approx. 1200 cu km is in the range of previous estimates and contributes to about half of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) total water storage variations. For the first time, we map the surface water volume anomaly during the extreme droughts of 1997 (October-November) and 2005 (September-October) and found that during these dry events the water stored in the river and flood-plains of the Amazon basin was, respectively, approx. 230 (approx. 40%) and 210 (approx. 50%) cu km below the 1993-2007 average. This new 15year data set of surface water volume represents an unprecedented source of information for future hydrological or climate modeling of the Amazon. It is also a first step toward the development of such database at the global scale.

Storage↗

Planetary Geophysics and Tectonics

We have carried out several studies that explore explanations for the role of chemical density variations in Moon s evolution. Meaningful models for the evolution of the Moon must explain a number of important magmatic characteristics. Volcanic activity subsequent to the formation of its anorthositic crust was dominated by the eruption of mare basalt. 1) The main phase of mare volcanism began approx. 500 Myr after the crystallization of the anorthositic crust and continued for approx. l Gyr. 2) The picitic glasses, considered to be representative of mare basalt least affected by low pressure, near-surface fractionation, were generated by melting, at 400-600 km depth, of a source containing components that, on the basis of the magma ocean hypothesis, should have crystallized at much shallower depth during fractionation of the anorthositic crust. 3) Mare basalts occur primarily in one region of the Moon. Recent topographic data demonstrate that the earlier idea that mare basalt flooded areas of low elevation is not correct. Large areas of very low elevation do not contain mare basalt. The hemispheric asymmetry of mare basalt distribution on the lunar surface must be explained in some other way. 4) A region of the surface roughly correlating with that containing mare basalts also is thought to contain high subsurface concentrations of KREEP which was excavated during the formation of large impact basins. This so-called Procellarum KREEP Terrane (PKT) is responsible for the Imbrium basin-centered thorium anomaly mapped by Lunar Prospector.

Parmentier, E. Marc↗

Ma'adim Vallis Estuarine Delta in Elysium Basin and Its Relevance as a Landing Site for Exobiology Exploration on Mars

The debouche of Ma'adim Vallis in the Elysium Basin generated a transitional transported sediment structure, which planimetric shape is controlled by the enclosing topography of a deep reentrant gulf of the Basin into the highland. We defined it as an estuarine delta. The location and the importance of this estuarine delta is supported by the theoretical model of graded profile constructed for Ma'adim Vallis, and by two approaches: (i) the reconstruction of Ma'adim Vallis downstream course from Gusev to Elysium Basin, and (ii) the survey of the sediment deposit in the alleged estuary. The longitudinal graded profile of Ma'adim Vallis finds its base-level in the Elysium Basin, at a about 1000 m elevation, which is in agreement with the observed Basin shoreline. This model is supported by observational evidence of flow between the northern rim of Gusev crater, and the Elysium Basin shoreline. This downstream course of Ma'adim Vallis can be divided into three hydrogeologic regions. into three hydrogeologic regions. (a) The first region is a flooded plain (Zephiria Mensae), consisting in chaotic terrain formed by highland rocks, and disintegrated lava of the western flank of Apollinaris. Morphologic indicators of the flood process are: (1) the sediment deposit over the Gusev crater northern rim that reflects the overspilling of the crater-lake water through a 40-km wide gap provided by an ancient impact crater, (2) the tear-drop shaped feature on the northeastern flank of Apollinaris Patera, and (3) the chaotic terrain that suggest the emergence of ground water generated by the seepage of the crater lake through high-permeable broken rampart material. This underground water circulation sustained by the hydrostatic pressure of the crater-lake has likely generated a hydrothermal system in the volcanic environment of Apollinaris Patera. The stratigraphy of the flooded area is identified as Hesperian age, with occurrences of Noachian hilly individual features, and as Amazonian flooded plain and chaotic material, (b) The second region is located on the western flank of Apollinaris Patera. It is surrounded by relics of deep valleys that suggest a former downstream course of Ma'adim Vallis. The geologic setting of this region (Lucus Planum) is interpreted to be an Amazonian formation composed by the middle and lower members of the Medusae Formation., c) The third region corresponds to the convergence of the west and east branches of Ma'adirn Vallis into a deep re-entrant wide gulf that penetrates about 100 km into the highland. This topographic depression is delineated by the 1000 in elevation contour. This gulf has formed an estuarine configuration centered at 3S/190W within the Elysium Basin. This configuration has favored the formation of a estuarine sedimentary delta, because of topographically controlled lateral migration. This estuarine structure is strongly dominated by the incoming supply of Ma'adim Vallis fluvial sediment extracted from Zephiria Mensae and Lucus Planum. The obtuse-angle geometry of the estuary increases the sedimentation rate, which is higher than in the course of the channel. The sediment deposition process is governed by the estuarine water circulation. The inflowing loaded fluvial water enters the estuary as a bottom current, and mixes with the relatively less-loaded water of the receiving basin. When they mixed. the inflowing fluvial material, and the landward basin circulating water generate an accumulation of highly-diversified estuarine deposit stratification. This accumulation of material is mostly centered in the transitional zone of the delta. The sediment trapping efficiency of the estuary is function of the energy balance between the inflowing fluvial water, and the ingoing basin current. The submergence of the delta by the rising of the water-level increases the estuary water-depth, and consequently the sediment entrapment is favored. The locus of sediment accumulation moves landward in the zone of inflowing fluvial water. This results in the rising of the channel base-level, thus in the increase of the length of the longitudinal graded-profile. The sediment deposit facies of the zone A shows a generally smooth surface. The longitudinal deposit is bordered by alluvial terraces that reflect the variations of the channel level. The waning of the Elysium Basin caused the erosion of the Basin estuarine zone by small channels, this episode being characterized by dissected tear-drop shaped mesa-like morphologies in the delta. Our estuarine delta model predicts a lithostratigraphic depositional sequence associated with the water submergence and the transgression of Elysium Basin. The thickness of the estuarine sediment corresponds to the Elysium Basin levels changes relatively to the bed floor of the estuary, The depositional sequence of Ma'adim Vallis are described: (1) a pro-current filled region (A), where fluvial are longitudinally accumulated by the inflowing water, (2) inverse current from Elysium Basin (B), where fluvial and lacustrine sediments are accumulated, and (3) zone of current equilibrium (C), where the sediments are distributed as a shoreline at the boundary of the estuarine delta. The estuary sedimentology dynamics collects and keeps the record of the geologic unit material crossed by Ma'adim Vallis, and those of the lakebed deposit of Elysium Basin. The predicted mixed stratigraphic sequence from fluvial and lacustrine sediment makes this site an exceptional environment to concentrate potential multi-origin biologic records. We envision four possible strategies to explore this sedimentologic record: (1) longitudinal surface and subsurface traverses in region A to investigate outcrop levees, (2) exploration of the mesa walls in region B, (3) deep drilling hole lodging of the sequential deposits in the zones A and B, and (4) surface and subsurface exploration of the shoreline delta. The expected results for each of these strategies are: (1) in the deepest layers of region A are predicted frequent and abundant coarse material, sandy lenses lamination grading downward from sand to cobbles. Volcanic debris from the Noachian crustal Plateau unit material, hydrothermal altered rocks, carbonates, Hesperian and possibly Amazonian volcanic material, from Apollinaris Patera, altered rocks and carbonates from Zephiria Mensae are expected. As a favorable environment for inception of life, possible biological records are expected in transported rock, (2) At the surface, and subsurface (<=100 m), large deposits sandy to silted material from Elysium paleolake basin mixed with fine-grained sediments from Ma'adim Vallis are expected mostly in the upstream part of region B, (3) on the shoreline of the estuarine delta, abundant fine material from Elysium paleolake basin (evaporites, carbonates), mostly Amazonian in age are expected. The Ma'adini estuary is a favorable landing site for all the above mentioned science aspects, and .for its location. The site lies near the equator, which is favorable for the rover solar power supply, and at 1000m elevation, which is a favorable configuration for the descent system braking. Another advantage is the extent of the area of high scientific interest (33,000 sq km), which provides a good ellipse, and potential long study traverses.

Grin, E. A.↗

Modeling the Hydrodynamics, Sediment Transport, and Valley Incision of Outlet-forming Floods from Martian Crater Lakes

Open-basin lakes that have outlets, formed where the stored water breached the basin-confining topography (e.g., crater rims), have been recognized on Mars for decades. However, the mechanics involved in formation of these outlets has not been studied in detail. Here, we study this outlet formation process through a series of numerical experiments accomplished by adding erosion and sediment transport routines to an existing hydrodynamic simulation, ANUGA. These experiments are consistent with outlets being carved in single flood events, at least if sediment was available throughout outlet formation as in a transport-limited regime. Peak discharges from these open-basin lakes, including from Jezero crater, were 10^4–10^6 m^3/s, and the outlet-forming floods lasted for days to weeks, depending on lake size. Moreover, we find that sediment transport by suspension was likely important during these floods – outlets could not have reached their observed sizes if flow was limited to bedload transport alone. This in turn may explain why small open-basin lakes are less commonly recognized on Mars, as small lakes had less inherent capacity to transport sediment in suspension and thus incise confining topography catastrophically. Geometry, topographic setting, and earlier fluvial valley development may have played a significant role in influencing the magnitude of outlet-forming floods and resulting outlet canyon incision.

Mars↗

The circum-Chryse region as a possible example of a hydrologic cycle on Mars: Geologic observations and theoretical evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approx. 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approx. 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approx. 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scarp or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

The Circum-Chryse Region as a Possible Example of a Hydrologic Cycle on Mars: Geologic Observations and Theoretical Evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approximately 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approximately 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approximately 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scrap or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mantle plumes on Venus revisited

The Equatorial Highlands of Venus consist of a series of quasicircular regions of high topography, rising up to about 5 km above the mean planetary radius. These highlands are strongly correlated with positive geoid anomalies, with a peak amplitude of 120 m at Atla Regio. Shield volcanism is observed at Beta, Eistla, Bell, and Atla Regiones and in the Hathor Mons-Innini Mons-Ushas Mons region of the southern hemisphere. Volcanos have also been mapped in Phoebe Regio and flood volcanism is observed in Ovda and Thetis Regiones. Extensional tectonism is also observed in Ovda and Thetis Regiones. Extensional tectonism is also observed in many of these regions. It is now widely accepted that at least Beta, Atla, Eistla, and Bell Regiones are the surface expressions of hot, rising mantel plumes. Upwelling plumes are consistent with both the volcanism and the extensional tectonism observed in these regions. The geoid anomalies and topography of these four regions show considerable variation. Peak geoid anomalies exceed 90 m at Beta and Atla, but are only 40 m at Eistla and 24 m at Bell. Similarly, the peak topography is greater at Beta and Atla than at Eistla and Bell. Such a range of values is not surprising because terrestrial hotspot swells also have a side range of geoid anomalies and topographic uplifts. Kiefer and Hager used cylindrical axisymmetric, steady-state convection calculations to show that mantle plumes can quantitatively account for both the amplitude and the shape of the long-wavelength geoid and topography at Beta and Atla. In these models, most of the topography of these highlands is due to uplift by the vertical normal stress associated with the rising plume. Additional topography may also be present due to crustal thickening by volcanism and crustal thinning by rifting. Smrekar and Phillips have also considered the geoid and topography of plumes on Venus, but they restricted themselves to considering only the geoid-topography ratio and did not examine either the geoid and topography amplitudes separately or the shapes of anomalies.

Kiefer, Walter S.↗

Western Rainier Seismic Zone Airborne Laser Swath Mapping

Airborne laser swath mapping (ALSM) of the Puget Lowland conducted by TerraPoint LLC for the Purget Sound Lidar Concortium (PSLC), has been successful in revealing Holocene fault scarps and lendsliders hidden beneath the dense, temperate rain forest cover and in quantifying shoreline terrace uplift. Expanding the PSLC efforts, NASA-USGS collaboration is now focusing on topographic mapping of seismogenic zones adjacent to volcanois in the western Cascades range in order to assess the presence of active faulting and tectonic deformation, better define the extend of lahars and understand their flow processes, and characterize landslide occurrence. Mapping of the western Rainier zone (WRZ) was conducted by TerraPoint in late 2002, after leaf fall and before snow accumulation. The WRZ is a NNW-trending, approx. 30 km-long zone of seismicity west of Mount Rainier National Park. The Puget Lowland ALSM methods were modified to accommodate challenges posed by the steep, high relief terrian. The laser data, acquired with a density of approx. 2 pulses /sq m, was filtered to identify returns from the ground from which a bare Earth digital elevation model (DEM) was produced with a grid size of 1.8 m. The RMS elevation accuracy of the DEM in flat, unvegetated areas is approx. 10cm based on consistency between overlapping flight swaths and comparisons to ground control points. The resulting DEM substantially improves upon Shuttle Radar Topography Mission and USGS photogrammetric mapping. For example, the DEM defines the size and spatial distribution of flood erratics left by the Electron lahar and of megaclasts within the Round Pass lahar, important for characterizing the lahar hydraulics. A previously unknown lateral levee on the Round Pass lahar is also revealed. In addition, to illustrating geomorfic feature within the WRZ, future plans for laser mapping of the Saint Helens and Darrington seismic zones will be described.

Harding, David J.↗

GRAIL-Identified Gravity Anomalies in Oceanus Procellarum: Insight into Subsurface Impact and Magmatic Structures on the Moon

Four, quasi-circular, positive Bouguer gravity anomalies (PBGAs) that are similar in diameter (~90-190 km) and gravitational amplitude (> 140 mGal contrast) are identified within the central Oceanus Procellarum region of the Moon. These spatially associated PBGAs are located south of Aristarchus Plateau, north of Flamsteed crater, and two are within the Marius Hills volcanic complex (north and south). Each is characterized by distinct surface geologic features suggestive of ancient impact craters and/or volcanic/plutonic activity. Here, we combine geologic analyses with forward modeling of high-resolution gravity data from the Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory (GRAIL) mission in order to constrain the subsurface structures that contribute to these four PBGAs. The GRAIL data presented here, at spherical harmonic degrees 6–660, permit higher resolution analyses of these anomalies than previously reported, and reveal new information about subsurface structures. Specifically, we find that the amplitudes of the four PBGAs cannot be explained solely by mare-flooded craters, as suggested in previous work; an additional density contrast is required to explain the high-amplitude of the PBGAs. For Northern Flamsteed (190 km diameter), the additional density contrast may be provided by impact-related mantle uplift. If the local crust has a density ~2800 kg/cu.m, then ~7 km of uplift is required for this anomaly, although less uplift is required if the local crust has a lower mean density of ~2500 kg/cu.m. For the Northern and Southern Marius Hills anomalies, the additional density contrast is consistent with the presence of a crustal complex of vertical dikes that occupies up to ~50% of the regionally thin crust. The structure of Southern Aristarchus Plateau (90 km diameter), an anomaly with crater-related topographic structures, remains ambiguous. Based on the relatively small size of the anomaly, we do not favor mantle uplift; however, understanding mantle response in a region of especially thin crust needs to be better resolved. It is more likely that this anomaly is due to subsurface magmatic material given the abundance of volcanic material in the surrounding region. Overall, the four PBGAs analyzed here are important in understanding the impact and volcanic/plutonic history of the Moon, specifically in a region of thin crust and elevated temperatures characteristic of the Procellarum KREEP Terrane.

Deutsch, Ariel N.↗

Quantifying Groundwater Response and Uncertainty in Beaver‐Influenced Mountainous Floodplains Using Machine Learning‐Based Model Calibration

Abstract Beavers ( Castor canadensis ) alter river corridor hydrology by creating ponds and inundating floodplains, and thereby improving surface water storage. However, the impact of inundation on groundwater, particularly in mountainous alluvial floodplains with permeable gravel/cobble layers overlain by a soil layer, remains uncertain. Numerical modeling across various floodplain structures considers topographic and sediment complexity and multidirectional flow, linking inundation to groundwater response. This study develops a model‐data integration workflow to address uncertainty in groundwater response to beaver‐induced inundations in a mountainous alluvial floodplain in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Uncertain factors include seasonal hydrologic dynamics, hydraulic conductivities, floodplain structures, and meteorological forcings. We employed an ensemble of groundwater models, based on geophysical and hydrologic data, with machine learning‐based calibration using a neural density estimator. This allowed us to quantify the vertical flux from the soil layer to the permeable gravel bed, the down‐valley underflow within the gravel bed, and their ratios. Results show a significant increase in the vertical flux relative to down‐valley underflow, from 2 during dry pond periods to 20 during wet periods, serving as an analogy for conditions without and with beaver ponds. The study highlights the influence of floodplain structure on groundwater storage, water balance, and water quality impacted by beaver ponds. A thick gravel bed layer, with a large down‐valley underflow, minimizes the effect of beaver‐induced inundation on water quality. We emphasize the need for field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure and improved characterization of evapotranspiration changes to reduce uncertainty in groundwater response. Plain Language Summary Beavers change the flow of water in river corridors by creating ponds, expanding wetlands, and flooding floodplains. This increases surface water area, promotes plant growth, and enhances biodiversity. However, the impact of this flooding on groundwater flow is not well understood, especially in mountainous areas with gravel layers where water moves easily beneath soil. In this study, we used numerical modeling to investigate how beaver ponds influence groundwater in a mountainous floodplain of the Upper Colorado River Basin. We adapted a machine learning method to validate our numerical models using multiple field data sets. Our findings show that beaver ponds significantly increase vertical water flow from the soil to the gravel during wet periods, compared to when the ponds are fully drained. The study also highlights the importance of floodplain structure in controlling both water flow in gravel layers along the river direction and vertical flow from the soil to the gravel with the presence of beavers. To reduce uncertainty in groundwater response, we emphasize the need for more field‐scale measurements of floodplain structure, hydraulic properties, and evapotranspiration changes. Key Points Floodplain structures and hydraulic conductivities are important for groundwater response with beaver ponds in mountainous floodplains Large down‐valley underflow in permeability‐stratified floodplains reduces beaver‐induced impacts on groundwater storage and water quality Machine learning‐based model calibration methods are effective for estimating posterior distributions of groundwater model parameters

Wang, Lijing↗

Constraints on the rate of discharge and duration of the Mangala Valles flood

Interest in Mangala Valles remains high within the planetary science community. This is justified because the survey mission images provide us with nearly complete coverage of the system at high resolution. Upcoming high resolution topography from the Mars Observer Laser Altimeter will enable the application of flood discharge models with an unprecedented level of detail. Previous work on the Mangala Valles problem has relied on the available low resolution topography. This has limited the ability of workers to constrain discharge calculations to only within several-order-of-magnitude estimates. Local determinations of channel depths via shadow length measurements and photoclinometric profiling are much more accurate, but can only be applied to steep slopes (and/or low sun elevations) in the case of shadow measurements, or across relatively short distances (to avoid changes in albedo along asymmetric photoclinometric profiles). We are taking stereo parallax measurements from medium resolution Viking Orbiter images, which provide a valuable intermediate check of the topography between those measurements made thus far and the upcoming Mars Observer data. The images used are from orbits 034A and 637A, and cover Mangala Valles from the source graben in Memnonia Fossae to the beginning of the bifurcated reach (at 9.5 deg lat., 151.5 deg lon.). These images are about 300 m/pixel and 250 m/pixel, respectively. Both sets of images were orthographically projected to 250 m/pixel. The separation angle between left-right pairs is approximately 52 degrees. This results in a vertical accuracy on the order of plus or minus 260 m. Though this is still somewhat coarse, the channel relief is clearly resolved. Preliminary profiles across Mangala Valles and the large topographic ridge to the east are shown on the following page. An east-west regional tilt that resulted from slight scaling differences in the digital data has been 'removed' by visually estimating a regional datum on the stereo pairs. North-south variations in scale have not yet been adjusted for, so the zero datum for each profile was simply taken to be the high water line of the channel itself. Our depth measurement for the source breach of about 750 m agrees reasonably well with values of 700-1000 m determined from shadow measurements.

Parker, T. J.↗

An Ecosystem Simulation Model for Methane Production and Emission from Wetlands

Previous experimental studies suggest that methane emission from wetland is influenced by multiple interactive pathways of gas production and transport through soil and sediment layers to the atmosphere. The objective of this study is to evaluate a new simulation model of methane production and emission in wetland soils that was developed initially to help identify key processes that regulate methanogenesis and net flux of CH4 to the air, but which is designed ultimately for regional simulation using remotely sensed inputs for land cover characteristics. The foundation for these computer simulations is based on a well-documented model (CASA) of ecosystem production and carbon cycling in the terrestrial blaspheme. Modifications to represent flooded wetland soils and anaerobic decomposition include three new sub-models for: (1) layered soil temperature and water table depth (WTD) as a function of daily climate drivers, (2) CH4 production within the anoxic soil layer as a function of WTD and CO2 production under poorly drained conditions, and (3) CH4 gaseous transport pathways (molecular diffusion, ebullition, and plant vascular transport) as a function of WTD and ecosystem type. The model was applied and tested using climate and ecological data to characterize tundra wetland sites near Fairbanks, Alaska studied previously by Whalen and Reeburgh. Comparison of model predictions to measurements of soil temperature and thaw depth, water-table depth, and CH4 emissions over a two year period suggest that inter-site differences in soil physical conditions and methane fluxes could be reproduced accurately for selected periods. Day-to-day comparison of predicted emissions to measured CH4 flux rates reveals good agreement during the early part of the thaw season, but the model tends to underestimate production of CH4 during the months of July and August in both test years. Important seasonal effects, including that of falling WTD during these periods, are apparently overlooked in the model formulation. Nevertheless, reasonably close agreement was achieved between the model's mean daily and seasonal estimates of CH4 flux and observed emission rates for northern wetland ecosystems. Several features of the model are identified as crucial to more accurate prediction of wetland methane emission, including the capacity to incorporate influences of localized topographic and hydrologic features on site-specific soil temperature and WTD dynamics, and mechanistic simulation of methane emission transport pathways from within the soil profile.

Potter, C. S.↗

Forecasting of Storm-Surge Floods Using ADCIRC and Optimized DEMs

Increasing the accuracy of storm-surge flood forecasts is essential for improving preparedness for hurricanes and other severe storms and, in particular, for optimizing evacuation scenarios. An interactive database, developed by WorldWinds, Inc., contains atlases of storm-surge flood levels for the Louisiana/Mississippi gulf coast region. These atlases were developed to improve forecasting of flooding along the coastline and estuaries and in adjacent inland areas. Storm-surge heights depend on a complex interaction of several factors, including: storm size, central minimum pressure, forward speed of motion, bottom topography near the point of landfall, astronomical tides, and, most importantly, maximum wind speed. The information in the atlases was generated in over 100 computational simulations, partly by use of a parallel-processing version of the ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model. ADCIRC is a nonlinear computational model of hydrodynamics, developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the US Navy, as a family of two- and three-dimensional finite-element-based codes. It affords a capability for simulating tidal circulation and storm-surge propagation over very large computational domains, while simultaneously providing high-resolution output in areas of complex shoreline and bathymetry. The ADCIRC finite-element grid for this project covered the Gulf of Mexico and contiguous basins, extending into the deep Atlantic Ocean with progressively higher resolution approaching the study area. The advantage of using ADCIRC over other storm-surge models, such as SLOSH, is that input conditions can include all or part of wind stress, tides, wave stress, and river discharge, which serve to make the model output more accurate. To keep the computational load manageable, this work was conducted using only the wind stress, calculated by using historical data from Hurricane Camille, as the input condition for the model. Hurricane storm-surge simulations were performed on an eight-node Linux computer cluster. Each node contained dual 2-GHz processors, 2GB of memory, and a 40GB hard drive. The digital elevation model (DEM) for this region was specified using a combination of Navy data (over water), NOAA data (for the coastline), and optimized Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data (over land). This high-resolution topographical data of the Mississippi coastal region provided the ADCIRC model with improved input with which to calculate improved storm-surge forecasts.

Valenti, Elizabeth↗