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NASA NTRS2024

Trade Space Analyses: Balancing Crew and Mission Design Parameters

In 2020, the Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations and the Agency’s Federated Board requested an assessment to develop a methodology for trade space analysis comparing crew size for Mars missions against mission design parameters. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conducted an assessment to develop a methodology for systematic, repeatable trade space analysis for crew size and developed an initial set of human performance models and a list of candidate crew tasks for NASA’s first mission to Mars. This report contains the results of the NESC assessment.

Humans to Mars↗
NASA NTRS2025

Trade Space Analyses: Balancing Crew and Mission Design Parameters-Candidate Mars Master Task List

In 2020, the Associate Administrator for Human Exploration and Operations and the Agency’s Federated Board requested an assessment to develop a methodology for trade space analysis comparing crew size for Mars missions against mission design parameters. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) conducted an assessment to develop a methodology for systematic, repeatable trade space analysis for crew size and developed an initial set of human performance models and a list of candidate crew tasks for NASA’s first mission to Mars. This report contains list of candidate crew tasks for Mars.

Crew Duties and Tasks↗
NASA NTRS2006

Trade Space Assessment for Human Exploration Mission Design

Many human space exploration mission architecture assessments have been performed over the years by diverse organizations and individuals. Direct comparison of metrics among these studies is extremely difficult due to widely varying assumptions involving projected technology readiness, mission goals, acceptable risk criteria, and socio-political environments. However, constant over the years have been the physical laws of celestial dynamics and rocket propulsion systems. A finite diverse yet finite architecture trade space should exist which captures methods of human exploration - particularly of the Moon and Mars - by delineating technical trades and cataloging the physically realizable options of each. A particular architectural approach should then have a traceable path through this "trade tree". It should be pointed out that not every permutation of paths will result in a physically realizable mission approach, but cataloging options that have been examined by past studies should help guide future analysis. This effort was undertaken in two phases by multi-center NASA working groups in the spring and summer of 2004 using more than thirty years of past studies to "flesh out" the Moon-Mars human exploration trade space. The results are presented, not as a "trade tree", which would be unwieldy, but as a "menu" of potential technical options as a function of mission phases. This is envisioned as a tool to aid future mission designers by offering guidance to relevant past analyses.

Joosten, B. Kent↗
NASA NTRS2002

Global Precipitation Measurement - Report 9 Core Coverage Trade Space Analysis

This paper summarizes the GPM-Core coverage trade space analysis. The goal of this analysis was to determine the GPM-Core sensitivity to changes in altitude and inclination for the three onboard instruments: the radiometer, the KU band radar and the KA band radar. This study will enable a better choice of the nominal GPM-Core orbit as well as the optimal size of the maintenance box (+/-1 km, +/-5 km..). For this work, we used two different figures-of-merit: (1) the time required to cover 100% of the +/-65 deg latitude band and (2) the coverage obtained for a given propagation time (7 days and 30 days). The first figure-of-merit is used for the radiometer as it has a sensor cone half-angle between 3 to 5 times bigger than the radars. Thus, we anticipate that for this instrument the period of the orbit (i.e. altitude) will be the main driver and that the 100% coverage value will be reached within less than a week. The second figure-of-merit is used for the radar instruments as they have small sensor cone half-angle and will, in some cases, never reach the 100% coverage threshold point.

Mailhe, Laurie↗
NASA NTRS2024

Assessing the Number of Crew for Mars Against Trade Space Parameters

Missions to Mars will differ from all previous human spaceflight missions in that the onboard crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner given the long communication delays on Mars missions. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk in that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, the crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise in the Mission Control Central (MCC) team on which NASA has come to rely. We present a framework for trade space analysis along with results from human-performance models developed in IMPRINT. We discuss the implications of model results on the trade space for number of crew for missions to Mars. This work was funded by the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) with support from NASA’s Human Research Program (HRP).

Donna Dempsey↗
NASA NTRS2024

Development of a Single Level Assessment Module for Simulating the Human Factors Concept Trade Space

This paper is a synopsis of the design and development of the Single Level Assessment Module (SLAM), a habitation mockup aimed at simulating volumetric conditions for astronauts in transit to Mars. Utilizing repurposed materials to enable low cost and constrained by various other design requirements from its parent vehicle, the SLAM embodies a critical step towards understanding human/habitat dynamics and interactions within the framework of the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) concept trade space. The synopsis begins by outlining the design constraints and goals, focusing on material availability and functional area volume requirements. Through various 3D design solutions, the SLAM emerges as a versatile habitat prototype, capable of accommodating various functional areas within its reconfigurable framework. The construction phase is then explored, highlighting the practical challenges and solutions encountered in assembling the SLAM's components. From panel assembly to outfitting functional areas, the construction process demonstrates a methodical approach to realizing the habitat's design intent. Looking ahead, the paper outlines future work, emphasizing the SLAM's adaptability for analysis and its potential to inform the design trade space future habitation concepts across the Moon to Mars architecture. By incorporating hinges for reconfigurability and facilitating volume assessments, the SLAM emerges as a crucial tool in advancing NASA’s ability to assess focused habitation configurations in conjunction with the development of the Moon to Mars architecture. In conclusion, this paper showcases the iterative process of habitat design, from conceptualization to construction.

Keith Lindsey↗
NASA NTRS2025

Humans to Mars, but How Many? Trade Space Analyses for Mars Mission Crew Size

Missions to Mars will differ from previous human spaceflight missions in that the crew of astronauts will be required to operate in an Earth-independent manner due to the long communication delays. Without a systematic, repeatable process to determine the number and composition of crew necessary to successfully accomplish these missions, NASA increases the risk that crew sizes may be too small to meet primary mission objectives under nominal conditions and, more consequentially, that crewmembers may not have the expertise needed to successfully respond to unforeseen failures without the real-time expertise of the Mission Control Central (MCC) team NASA currently relies upon. The NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) developed a methodology for assessing the trade space of factors that affect the number of crew for Mars missions based on human performance and expertise modeling. This methodology includes the consideration of results from three human performance models developed using the Improved Performance Research and Integration Tool (IMPRINT) modeling platform as well as a custom-built model on expertise trained within the crew based on NASA’s crew qualification and responsibilities matrix (CQRM). We present example model results and discuss implications on trade space analyses for Mars mission crew size.

Mars Mission↗
NASA NTRS2020

Efficient Trade Space Exploration

This paper describes the process and tools that have led to a factor of nine improvement in the efficiency of trade space exploration of space systems in Team-X at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

Nash, Alfred E↗
NASA NTRS2013

Small Launch Vehicle Trade Space Definition: Development of a Zero Level Mass Estimation Tool with Trajectory Validation

Recent high level interest in the capability of small launch vehicles has placed significant demand on determining the trade space these vehicles occupy. This has led to the development of a zero level analysis tool that can quickly determine the minimum expected vehicle gross liftoff weight (GLOW) in terms of vehicle stage specific impulse (Isp) and propellant mass fraction (pmf) for any given payload value. Utilizing an extensive background in Earth to orbit trajectory experience a total necessary delta v the vehicle must achieve can be estimated including relevant loss terms. This foresight into expected losses allows for more specific assumptions relating to the initial estimates of thrust to weight values for each stage. This tool was further validated against a trajectory model, in this case the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), to determine if the initial sizing delta v was adequate to meet payload expectations. Presented here is a description of how the tool is setup and the approach the analyst must take when using the tool. Also, expected outputs which are dependent on the type of small launch vehicle being sized will be displayed. The method of validation will be discussed as well as where the sizing tool fits into the vehicle design process.

Waters, Eric D.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Trade-Space Analysis for Safe Human Expeditions to Mars

We assessed the integrated safety, health, and performance risk to crews on long-duration missions, specifically to Mars. Using a systems approach rather than one focused on individual countermeasures, we examined the trade space around several such risks to identify high-potential risk mitigation strategies and characterize aspects of Mars mission architectures that could lower aggregated risk. Current Mars Design Reference missions would require durations well over two years and would increase crew exposure to radiation and microgravity well beyond ISS levels, likely resulting in significantly reduced performance beyond our current capability to mitigate that could jeopardize mission success. A “fast Mars transit” round-trip mission concept was studied using an innovative flight dynamics approach to quantify the minimum total mission energy required for a Mars transit with total mission duration less than 400 days. This approach holds promise for sending humans to Mars and returning them safely with acceptable, potentially mitigatable, exposure to microgravity and radiation using current or near-term technologies. The fast transit concept would also result in fewer time-driven vehicle failures and enable sustainable deployment of humans and infrastructure to Mars on a regular cadence, allowing steady exploration and colonization of Mars. Finally, we conclude that reliance on the Low Earth Orbit (LEO) mission operations paradigm – i.e., one of near-complete real-time dependence on experts at Mission Control to manage the combined state of the mission, vehicle, and crew – is high risk given the communication delays and limited resupply of any Mars mission, and this risk is not eliminated by the shorter missions durations of fast transit scenarios. Based on historical trends, it is highly likely that the crew will face a high-consequence problem of uncertain origin during Mars transit when ground support will be greatly reduced. While it may be possible to reduce anomaly rates through improved reliability analysis and testing, and to reduce anomaly impacts through added robustness, such mitigations address only known failure modes and known uncertainties. Therefore, a radical shift in the Human-Systems Integration Architecture (HSIA) that defines the operational paradigm, systems design, and human-systems interactions is required to improve the risk posture to an acceptable level regardless of mission duration.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2018

Trade-Space Analysis Tool for Designing Constellations (TAT-C)

While there is growing interest in implementing future NASA Earth Science missions as Distributed Spacecraft Missions (DSMs), there are currently no tool to help in the design of DSMs. The objective of our project is to provide a framework that facilitates DSM Pre-Phase A investigations and optimizes DSM designs with respect to a-priori Science goals. Our Trade-space Analysis Tool for Constellations (TAT-C) allows to investigate questions such as: "Which type of constellations should be chosen? How many spacecraft should be included in the constellation? Which design has the best cost/risk value?" This paper provides a description of the TAT-C tool and its components.

Image Processing↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Towards a Common Basis of Comparison Across a Broad Trade Space of Mars Architecture Options

Humanity’s fascination with Mars predates the advent of space access, but the coming-of-age of rocket propulsion in the mid-20th century provided the technological foundation for considering a human visit to the red planet. Werner von Braun’s “The Mars Project,” published in 1953, is acknowledged as the first integrated Mars mission architecture plan [1]; since then, the reformulation and refinement of Mars architectures and system concepts has been an ongoing activity, as continued study and planning for human Mars missions is necessary in order to incorporate evolving mission objectives, technology advancements, and the increasing body of knowledge regarding human factors and the various environments of space. Historical Mars architecture studies represent an enormous body of work, but apart from a couple of high-level reviews [2], tapping into the findings and philosophies of these varied works entails a tedious and time-consuming individual effort. The unfortunate result of the widely scattered corpus of Mars architectures is that knowledge and understanding acquired in previous studies is not consistently and effectively brought to bear in the studies of today. The primary vehicle for bringing forward past learning is human recall, which both is imperfect and experiences significant attrition. An effort is underway in the Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center to recapture and re-baseline previous architecture studies in order to establish a broad basis of comparison for future Mars architecture studies. Recapturing involves gathering and organizing data and documentation from previous efforts; re-baselining entails developing models capable of reproducing the original results, and then utilizing these models to implement a common set of ground rules and assumptions across the resulting trade space of Mars architecture options. This paper will present the methodology ACO is employing in performing this architecture meta-study, including a discussion on the challenges involved in re-baselining without losing the intent behind previous concepts. As part of this discussion some initial results will be presented, along with a list of studies targeted for inclusion. It is expected that the completed basis of comparison results will be presented as a follow-on paper in the following year.

Stephen James Edwards↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of the Trade Space Between UAS Maneuver Performance and SAA System Performance Requirements

A need exists to safely integrate Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the National Airspace System. Replacing manned aircraft's see-and-avoid capability in the absence of an onboard pilot is one of the key challenges associated with safe integration. Sense-and-avoid (SAA) systems will have to achieve yet-to-be-determined required separation distances for a wide range of encounters. They will also need to account for the maneuver performance of the UAS they are paired with. The work described in this paper is aimed at developing an understanding of the trade space between UAS maneuver performance and SAA system performance requirements. An assessment of current manned and unmanned aircraft performance was used to establish potential UAS performance test matrix bounds. Then, nearterm UAS integration work was used to narrow down the scope. A simulator was developed with sufficient fidelity to assess SAA system performance requirements for a wide range of encounters. The simulator generates closest-point-of-approach (CPA) data from the wide range of UAS performance models maneuvering against a single intruder with various encounter geometries. The simulator is described herein and has both a graphical user interface and batch interface to support detailed analysis of individual UAS encounters and macro analysis of a very large set of UAS and encounter models, respectively. Results from the simulator using approximate performance data from a well-known manned aircraft is presented to provide insight into the problem and as verification and validation of the simulator. Analysis of climb, descent, and level turn maneuvers to avoid a collision is presented. Noting the diversity of backgrounds in the UAS community, a description of the UAS aerodynamic and propulsive design and performance parameters is included. Initial attempts to model the results made it clear that developing maneuver performance groups is required. Discussion of the performance groups developed and how to know in which group an aircraft belongs for a given flight condition and encounter is included. The groups are specific to airplane, flight condition, and encounter, rather than airplane-only specific. Results and methodology for developing UAS maneuver performance requirements are presented for each maneuver as well. Results for the vertical maneuver indicate that a minimum specific excess power value can assure a minimum CPA for a given time-to-go prediction. However, smaller values of specific excess power may achieve or exceed the same CPA if the UAS has sufficient speed to trade for altitude. Level turn results are less impacted by specific excess power and are presented as a function of turn rate. The effect of altitude is also discussed for the turns. Next steps and future work are discussed. Future studies will lead to better quantification of the preliminary results and cover the remainder of the proposed test matrix. It is anticipated that this will be done in conjunction with RTCA SC-228 over the next few months.

Jack, Devin P.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Exploration of the Trade Space Between Unmanned Aircraft Systems Descent Maneuver Performance and Sense-and-Avoid System Performance Requirements

A need exists to safely integrate Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) into the United States' National Airspace System. Replacing manned aircraft's see-and-avoid capability in the absence of an onboard pilot is one of the key challenges associated with safe integration. Sense-and-avoid (SAA) systems will have to achieve yet-to-be-determined required separation distances for a wide range of encounters. They will also need to account for the maneuver performance of the UAS they are paired with. The work described in this paper is aimed at developing an understanding of the trade space between UAS maneuver performance and SAA system performance requirements, focusing on a descent avoidance maneuver. An assessment of current manned and unmanned aircraft performance was used to establish potential UAS performance test matrix bounds. Then, near-term UAS integration work was used to narrow down the scope. A simulator was developed with sufficient fidelity to assess SAA system performance requirements. The simulator generates closest-point-of-approach (CPA) data from the wide range of UAS performance models maneuvering against a single intruder with various encounter geometries. Initial attempts to model the results made it clear that developing maneuver performance groups is required. Discussion of the performance groups developed and how to know in which group an aircraft belongs for a given flight condition and encounter is included. The groups are airplane, flight condition, and encounter specific, rather than airplane-only specific. Results and methodology for developing UAS maneuver performance requirements are presented for a descent avoidance maneuver. Results for the descent maneuver indicate that a minimum specific excess power magnitude can assure a minimum CPA for a given time-to-go prediction. However, smaller amounts of specific excess power may achieve or exceed the same CPA if the UAS has sufficient speed to trade for altitude. The results of this study will support UAS maneuver performance requirements development for integrating UAS in the NAS. The methods described are being used to help RTCA Special Committee 228 develop requirements.

Jack, Devin P.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from milli-second pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar lightcurve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

PULSAR↗
NASA NTRS2016

Application of X-Ray Pulsar Navigation: A Characterization of the Earth Orbit Trade Space

The potential for pulsars as a navigation source has been studied since their discovery in 1967. X-ray pulsar navigation (XNAV) is a celestial navigation system that uses the consistent timing nature of x-ray photons from millisecond pulsars (MSP) to perform space navigation. By comparing the detected arrival of x-ray photons to a reference database of expected pulsar light-curve timing models, one can infer a range and range rate measurement based on light time delay. Much of the challenge of XNAV comes from the faint signal, availability, and distant nature of pulsars. This is a study of potential pulsar XNAV measurements to measure extended Kalman filter (EKF) tracking performance with a wide trade space of bounded Earth orbits, using a simulation of existing x-ray detector space hardware. An example of an x-ray detector for XNAV is the NASA Station Explorer for X-ray Timing and Navigation (SEXTANT) mission, a technology demonstration of XNAV set to perform on the International Space Station (ISS) in late 2016early 2017. XNAV hardware implementation is driven by trajectory and environmental influences which add noise to the x-ray pulse signal. In a closed Earth orbit, the radiation environment can exponentially increase the signal noise from x-ray pulsar sources, decreasing the quality and frequency of measurements. The SEXTANT mission in particular improves on the signal to noise ratio by focusing an array of 56 x-ray silicon drift detectors at one pulsar target at a time. This reduces timing glitches and other timing noise contributions from ambient x-ray sources to within a 100 nanosecond resolution. This study also considers the SEXTANT scheduling challenges inherent in a single target observation. Finally, as the navigation sources are now relatively inertial targets, XNAV measurements are also subject to periods of occultation from various celestial bodies. This study focuses on the characterization of these drivers in closed Earth orbits and is not a tuning analysis of the EKF. The study shows that the closed Earth orbit for XNAV performance is reliant on the orbit semi-major axis and eccentricity as well as orbit inclination. These parameters are the primary drivers of pulsar measurement availability and significantly influence the natural spacecraft orbit dynamics. Sensitivity to initial orbit determination error growth due to the scarcity of XNAV measurements within an orbital period require appropriate timing of initial XNAV measurements. The orbit angles of argument of perigee and right ascension of the ascending node, alongside the other orbit parameters, complete the initial cadence of XNAV measurements. The performance of initial XNAV measurements then propagates throughout the experimental period. The study provides a basis to missions who wish to consider XNAV as a potential navigation source in a closed Earth orbit design. It provides a family of orbit trajectories as well as other modeling considerations needed to effectively evaluate if XNAV is an effective navigation source for a potential mission. As an EKF is sensitive to a linearized estimated state, this study has a direct benefit of providing effective XNAV measurements to maintain spacecraft tracking, independent of other navigation sources. In the particular use case of the SEXTANT mission, it also provides a novel scheduling algorithm which addresses the need to prioritize and manage pulsar observations for effective navigation.

x-ray↗