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At least 37 records · Page 2

Aircraft Conflict Analysis and Real-Time Conflict Probing Using Probabilistic Trajectory Modeling

Methods for maintaining separation between aircraft in the current airspace system have been built from a foundation of structured routes and evolved procedures. However, as the airspace becomes more congested and the chance of failures or operational error become more problematic, automated conflict alerting systems have been proposed to help provide decision support and to serve as traffic monitoring aids. The problem of conflict detection and resolution has been tackled from a number of different ways, but in this thesis, it is recast as a problem of prediction in the presence of uncertainties. Much of the focus is concentrated on the errors and uncertainties from the working trajectory model used to estimate future aircraft positions. The more accurate the prediction, the more likely an ideal (no false alarms, no missed detections) alerting system can be designed. Additional insights into the problem were brought forth by a review of current operational and developmental approaches found in the literature. An iterative, trial and error approach to threshold design was identified. When examined from a probabilistic perspective, the threshold parameters were found to be a surrogate to probabilistic performance measures. To overcome the limitations in the current iterative design method, a new direct approach is presented where the performance measures are directly computed and used to perform the alerting decisions. The methodology is shown to handle complex encounter situations (3-D, multi-aircraft, multi-intent, with uncertainties) with relative ease. Utilizing a Monte Carlo approach, a method was devised to perform the probabilistic computations in near realtime. Not only does this greatly increase the method's potential as an analytical tool, but it also opens up the possibility for use as a real-time conflict alerting probe. A prototype alerting logic was developed and has been utilized in several NASA Ames Research Center experimental studies.

Yang, Lee C.

Performance of Trajectory Models with Wind Uncertainty

Typical aircraft trajectory predictors use wind forecasts but do not account for the forecast uncertainty. A method for generating estimates of wind prediction uncertainty is described and its effect on aircraft trajectory prediction uncertainty is investigated. The procedure for estimating the wind prediction uncertainty relies uses a time-lagged ensemble of weather model forecasts from the hourly updated Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) weather prediction system. Forecast uncertainty is estimated using measures of the spread amongst various RUC time-lagged ensemble forecasts. This proof of concept study illustrates the estimated uncertainty and the actual wind errors, and documents the validity of the assumed ensemble-forecast accuracy relationship. Aircraft trajectory predictions are made using RUC winds with provision for the estimated uncertainty. Results for a set of simulated flights indicate this simple approach effectively translates the wind uncertainty estimate into an aircraft trajectory uncertainty. A key strength of the method is the ability to relate uncertainty to specific weather phenomena (contained in the various ensemble members) allowing identification of regional variations in uncertainty.

Lee, Alan G.

A new thermal and trajectory model for high altitude balloons

A new computer model for the prediction of the trajectory and thermal behavior of high altitude balloons has been developed. In accord with flight data, the model permits radiative emission and absorption of the lifting gas and daytime gas temperatures above that of the balloon film. It also includes ballasting, venting, and valving. Predictions obtained with the model are compared with flight data and newly discovered features are discussed.

Carlson, L. A.

A unified thermal and vertical trajectory model for the prediction of high altitude balloon performance

A computer model for the prediction of the trajectory and thermal behavior of zero-pressure high altitude balloon was developed. In accord with flight data, the model permits radiative emission and absorption of the lifting gas and daytime gas temperatures above that of the balloon film. It also includes ballasting, venting, and valving. Predictions obtained with the model are compared with flight data from several flights and newly discovered features are discussed.

Carlson, L. A.

Trajectory Model of Lunar Dust Particles

The goal of this work was to predict the trajectories of blowing lunar regolith (soil) particles when a spacecraft lands on or launches from the Moon. The blown regolith is known to travel at very high velocity and to damage any hardware located nearby on the Moon. It is important to understand the trajectories so we can develop technologies to mitigate the blast effects for the launch and landing zones at a lunar outpost. A mathematical model was implemented in software to predict the trajectory of a single spherical mass acted on by the gas jet from the nozzle of a lunar lander.

Source record

A Technology Pathway for Airbreathing, Combined-Cycle, Horizontal Space Launch Through SR-71 Based Trajectory Modeling

Access to space is in the early stages of commercialization. Private enterprises, mainly under direct or indirect subsidy by the government, have been making headway into the LEO launch systems infrastructure, of small-weight-class payloads of approximately 1000 lbs. These moderate gains have emboldened the launch industry and they are poised to move into the middle-weight class (roughly 5000 lbs). These commercially successful systems are based on relatively straightforward LOX-RP, two-stage, bi-propellant rocket technology developed by the government 40 years ago, accompanied by many technology improvements. In this paper we examine a known generic LOX-RP system with the focus on the booster stage (1st stage). The booster stage is then compared to modeled Rocket-Based and Turbine-Based Combined Cycle booster stages. The air-breathing propulsion stages are based on/or extrapolated from known performance parameters of ground tested RBCC (the Marquardt Ejector Ramjet) and TBCC (the SR-71/J-58 engine) data. Validated engine models using GECAT and SCCREAM are coupled with trajectory optimization and analysis in POST-II to explore viable launch scenarios using hypothetical aerospaceplane platform obeying the aerodynamic model of the SR-71. Finally, and assessment is made of the requisite research technology advances necessary for successful commercial and government adoption of combined-cycle engine systems for space access.

Kloesel, Kurt J.

Trajectory modeling of emissions from lower stratospheric aircraft

A series of isentropic trajectory calculations has been performed for emissions by stratospheric aircraft moving across the northern midlatitude oceanic flight corridors. Emission of exhaust is simulated by the daily initialization of air parcels along a flight path on the 500 K isentropic surface. Parcels are tracked during the first three weeks of each January from 1980 to 1994 in order to determine the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of the exhaust and the likelihood of exposure to cold temperatures. Few parcels emitted along these flight paths at this time of year had experienced nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) formation temperatures, except for the particularly cold Januarys 1986, 1987, and 1992. Large zonal fluctuations in the distribution of the emissions are typical for this time year and are strongly dependent on flight path. An extended 6-month (January-June) run in which parcels were released daily along the New York-London route shows that emissions in the flight corridor increase at a time-averaged rate which is nearly twice the rate at which the zonal average increases. In addition, local fluctuations of pollutant density can be several times higher than the zonal average and can persist for several weeks. A rapid buildup of emissions occurred during the summer months. These elevated emission levels must be considered in the interpretation of environmental impact assessments based on two-dimensional transport models.

Sparling, Lynn C.

Dynamic Modeling, Trajectory Optimization, and Linear Control of Cable-Driven Parallel Robots for Automated Panelized Building Retrofits

The construction industry faces a growing need for automation to reduce costs, improve accuracy and productivity, and address labor shortages. One area that stands to benefit significantly from automation is panelized prefabricated building envelope retrofits, which can improve a building’s energy efficiency in heating and cooling interior spaces. In this paper, we propose using cable-driven parallel robots (CDPRs), which can effectively lift and handle large objects, to install these panels. However, implementing CDPRs presents significant challenges because of their nonlinear dynamics, complex trajectory planning, and precise control requirements. To tackle these challenges, this work focuses on a new application of established control and trajectory optimization theories in a CDPR simulation of a building envelope retrofit under real-world conditions. We first model the dynamics of CDPRs, highlighting the critical role of damping in system behavior. Building on this dynamic model, we formulate a trajectory optimization problem to generate feasible and efficient motion plans for the robot under operational and environmental constraints. Given the high precision required in the construction industry, accurately tracking the optimized trajectory is essential. However, challenges such as partial observability and external vibrations complicate this task. To address these issues, a Linear Quadratic Gaussian control framework is applied, enabling the robot to track the optimized trajectories with precision. Simulation results show that the proposed controller enables precise end effector positioning with errors under 4 mm, even in the presence of external wind disturbances. Through comprehensive simulations, our approach allows for an in-depth exploration of the system’s nonlinear dynamics, trajectory optimization, and control strategies under controlled yet highly realistic conditions. The results demonstrate the feasibility of CDPRs for automating panel installation and provide insights into their practical deployment.

CDPR

Implicit Formulations of Bounded-Impulse Trajectory Models for Preliminary Interplanetary Low-Thrust Analysis

The bounded-impulse approach to low-thrust interplanetary trajectory optimization is widely used. In an effort to efficiently implement this approach using NASA’s OpenMDAO optimization software, the authors have implemented implicit formulations of the forward shooting/backwards-shooting methods commonly used in bounded-impulse models. These implicit approaches allow for vectorization of the underlying calculations which can significantly reduce runtime in interpreted languages. An implicit approach may be either converged by using an underlying nonlinear solver to converge the state propagation, or as a constraint in an optimizer-driven multiple-shooting approach. Significant computational efficiency gains are realized through the utilization of the modular approach to unified derivatives. Further computational efficiency is achieved by capitalizing on the sparsity of the constraint Jacobian matrix. This work demonstrates that a vectorized multiple-shooting approach for propagating a state-time history is superior in terms of computational efficiency as the number of segments in the state-propagation is increased.

Falck, Robert D

Lagrangian Trajectory Modeling of Lunar Dust Particles

Apollo landing videos shot from inside the right LEM window, provide a quantitative measure of the characteristics and dynamics of the ejecta spray of lunar regolith particles beneath the Lander during the final 10 [m] or so of descent. Photogrammetry analysis gives an estimate of the thickness of the dust layer and angle of trajectory. In addition, Apollo landing video analysis divulges valuable information on the regolith ejecta interactions with lunar surface topography. For example, dense dust streaks are seen to originate at the outer rims of craters within a critical radius of the Lander during descent. The primary intent of this work was to develop a mathematical model and software implementation for the trajectory simulation of lunar dust particles acted on by gas jets originating from the nozzle of a lunar Lander, where the particle sizes typically range from 10 micron to 500 micron. The high temperature, supersonic jet of gas that is exhausted from a rocket engine can propel dust, soil, gravel, as well as small rocks to high velocities. The lunar vacuum allows ejected particles to travel great distances unimpeded, and in the case of smaller particles, escape velocities may be reached. The particle size distributions and kinetic energies of ejected particles can lead to damage to the landing spacecraft or to other hardware that has previously been deployed in the vicinity. Thus the primary motivation behind this work is to seek a better understanding for the purpose of modeling and predicting the behavior of regolith dust particle trajectories during powered rocket descent and ascent.

Lane, John E.

FATE: The drifting Fish Aggregating Device (dFAD) TrajEctory Modeling Tool for Marine Protected Area Management

Drifting fish aggregating devices (dFADs) routinely enter marine protected areas (MPAs) and may undermine MPA protections by drifting out of the MPA with the aggregated fish biomass, or grounding and damaging sensitive coral reef habitats. MPA managers must decide whether to deploy resources in response to dFAD intrusions. To address this issue, we propose to quantify dFAD activity in relation to ocean currents, fish biomass, and animal telemetry at Palmyra Atoll, part of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument in the central Pacific Ocean. Specifically, we propose to develop the dFAD TrajEctory Tool (FATE). FATE is an innovative decision support tool that will use NASA observations and numerical models to predict future dFAD trajectories and inform TNC and USFWS whether they should deploy tactical resources (boats, personnel) to monitor, intercept, or retrieve dFADs that have entered the Refuge. The objectives are to use NASA observational constraints on ocean winds and currents to assist with the ecological management of the Palmyra Atoll NWR and MPA. Specifically, we will deliver an operational software tool that quantifies the grounding risk associated with each tracked dFAD and decision support for grounding risk mitigation via intercept at sea. This project addresses Element 3.3: Protected area management of the 2022 Ecological Conservation Solicitation by developing a tool needed by MPA managers to make tactical and strategic decisions focused on improving the effectiveness of MPAs. By quantifying the riskof dFADs, this project will help monitor and better inform the deployment of tactical (ships/personnel) and strategic (legislative) resources to better manage MPAs. This project is a collaboration between The Nature Conservancy, who operate long-term projects within the Palmyra MPA, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, who have the authority to make decisions related to its management. We expect that the results of our proposal will benefit marine resources within the Palmyra MPA and could be transferred to other remote MPAs within the US and other island nations within the Pacific Ocean.

TrajEctory

Enabling Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling During Early Phases of Design

During the early phases of engineering design, the costs committed are high, costs incurred are low, and the design freedom is high. It is well documented that decisions made in these early design phases drive the entire design's life cycle. In a traditional paradigm, key design decisions are made when little is known about the design. As the design matures, design changes become more difficult -- in both cost and schedule -- to enact. Indeed, the current capability-based paradigm that has emerged because of the constrained economic environment calls for the infusion of knowledge acquired during later design phases into earlier design phases, i.e. bring knowledge acquired during preliminary and detailed design into pre-conceptual and conceptual design. An area of critical importance to launch vehicle design is the optimization of its ascent trajectory, as the optimal trajectory will be able to take full advantage of the launch vehicle's capability to deliver a maximum amount of payload into orbit. Hence, the optimal ascent trajectory plays an important role in the vehicle's affordability posture as the need for more economically viable access to space solutions are needed in today's constrained economic environment. The problem of ascent trajectory optimization is not a new one. There are several programs that are widely used in industry that allows trajectory analysts to, based on detailed vehicle and insertion orbit parameters, determine the optimal ascent trajectory. Yet, little information is known about the launch vehicle early in the design phase - information that is required of many different disciplines in order to successfully optimize the ascent trajectory. Thus, the current paradigm of optimizing ascent trajectories involves generating point solutions for every change in a vehicle's design parameters. This is often a very tedious, manual, and time-consuming task for the analysts. Moreover, the trajectory design space is highly non-linear and multi-modal due to the interaction of various constraints. Additionally, when these obstacles are coupled with The Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories [1] (POST), an industry standard program to optimize ascent trajectories that is difficult to use, it requires expert trajectory analysts to effectively optimize a vehicle's ascent trajectory. As it has been pointed out, the paradigm of trajectory optimization is still a very manual one because using modern computational resources on POST is still a challenging problem. The nuances and difficulties involved in correctly utilizing, and therefore automating, the program presents a large problem. In order to address these issues, the authors will discuss a methodology that has been developed. The methodology is two-fold: first, a set of heuristics will be introduced and discussed that were captured while working with expert analysts to replicate the current state-of-the-art; secondly, leveraging the power of modern computing to evaluate multiple trajectories simultaneously, and therefore, enable the exploration of the trajectory's design space early during the pre-conceptual and conceptual phases of design. When this methodology is coupled with design of experiments in order to train surrogate models, the authors were able to visualize the trajectory design space, enabling parametric optimal ascent trajectory information to be introduced with other pre-conceptual and conceptual design tools. The potential impact of this methodology's success would be a fully automated POST evaluation suite for the purpose of conceptual and preliminary design trade studies. This will enable engineers to characterize the ascent trajectory's sensitivity to design changes in an arbitrary number of dimensions and for finding settings for trajectory specific variables, which result in optimal performance for a "dialed-in" launch vehicle design. The effort described in this paper was developed for the Advanced Concepts Office [2] at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

Holt, James B.

A trajectory modeling investigation of the biomass burning-tropical ozone relationship

The hypothesis that tropical total O3 maxima seen by the TOMS satellite derive from African biomass burning has been tested using isentropic trajectory analyses with global meteorological data fields. Two case studies from the 1989 biomass burning season demonstrate that a large fraction of the air arriving at the location of TOMS O3 maxima passed over regions of intense burning. Other trajectories initiated at a series of points over Africa and the Atlantic suggest flight strategies for field studies to be conducted in September 1992.

Pickering, Kenneth E.

A Modification and Analysis of Lagrangian Trajectory Modeling and Granular Dynamics of Lunar Dust Particles

A previously developed mathematical model is amended to more accurately incorporate the effects of lift and drag on single dust particles in order to predict their behavior in the wake of high velocity gas flow. The model utilizes output from a CFD or DSMC simulation of exhaust from a rocket nozzle hot gas jet. An extension of the Saffman equation for lift based on the research of McLaughlin (1991) and Mei (1992) is used, while an equation for the Magnus force modeled after the work of Oesterle (1994) and Tsuji et al (1985) is applied. A relationship for drag utilizing a particle shape factor (phi = 0.8) is taken from the work of Haider and Levenspiel (1989) for application to non-spherical particle dynamics. The drag equation is further adjusted to account for rarefaction and compressibility effects in rarefied and high Mach number flows according to the work of Davies (1945) and Loth (2007) respectively. Simulations using a more accurate model with the correction factor (Epsilon = 0.8 in a 20% particle concentration gas flow) given by Richardson and Zaki (1954) and Rowe (1961) show that particles have lower ejection angles than those that were previously calculated. This is more prevalent in smaller particles, which are shown through velocity and trajectory comparison to be more influenced by the flow of the surrounding gas. It is shown that particles are more affected by minor changes to drag forces than larger adjustments to lift forces, demanding a closer analysis of the shape and behavior of lunar dust particles and the composition of the surrounding gas flow.

Long, Jason M.

Augmenting Parametric Optimal Ascent Trajectory Modeling with Graph Theory

It has been well documented that decisions made in the early stages of Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design commit up to 80% of total Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) while engineers know the least about the product they are designing [1]. Once within Preliminary and Detailed design however, making changes to the design becomes far more difficult to enact in both cost and schedule. Primarily this has been due to a lack of detailed data usually uncovered later during the Preliminary and Detailed design phases. In our current budget-constrained environment, making decisions within Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design which minimize LCC while meeting requirements is paramount to a program's success. Within the arena of launch vehicle design, optimizing the ascent trajectory is critical for minimizing the costs present within such concerns as propellant, aerodynamic, aeroheating, and acceleration loads while meeting requirements such as payload delivered to a desired orbit. In order to optimize the vehicle design its constraints and requirements must be known, however as the design cycle proceeds it is all but inevitable that the conditions will change. Upon that change, the previously optimized trajectory may no longer be optimal, or meet design requirements. The current paradigm for adjusting to these updates is generating point solutions for every change in the design's requirements [2]. This can be a tedious, time-consuming task as changes in virtually any piece of a launch vehicle's design can have a disproportionately large effect on the ascent trajectory, as the solution space of the trajectory optimization problem is both non-linear and multimodal [3]. In addition, an industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), requires an expert analyst to produce simulated trajectories that are feasible and optimal [4]. In a previous publication the authors presented a method for combatting these challenges [5]. In order to bring more detailed information into Conceptual and Pre-Conceptual design, knowledge of the effects originating from changes to the vehicle must be calculated. In order to do this, a model capable of quantitatively describing any vehicle within the entire design space under consideration must be constructed. This model must be based upon analysis of acceptable fidelity, which in this work comes from POST. Design space interrogation can be achieved with surrogate modeling, a parametric, polynomial equation representing a tool. A surrogate model must be informed by data from the tool with enough points to represent the solution space for the chosen number of variables with an acceptable level of error. Therefore, Design Of Experiments (DOE) is used to select points within the design space to maximize information gained on the design space while minimizing number of data points required. To represent a design space with a non-trivial number of variable parameters the number of points required still represent an amount of work which would take an inordinate amount of time via the current paradigm of manual analysis, and so an automated method was developed. The best practices of expert trajectory analysts working within NASA Marshall's Advanced Concepts Office (ACO) were implemented within a tool called multiPOST. These practices include how to use the output data from a previous run of POST to inform the next, determining whether a trajectory solution is feasible from a real-world perspective, and how to handle program execution errors. The tool was then augmented with multiprocessing capability to enable analysis on multiple trajectories simultaneously, allowing throughput to scale with available computational resources. In this update to the previous work the authors discuss issues with the method and solutions.

Patrick D Dees

Coupled Solid Rocket Motor Ballistics and Trajectory Modeling for Higher Fidelity Launch Vehicle Design

Multi-stage launch vehicles with solid rocket motors (SRMs) face design optimization challenges, especially when the mission scope changes frequently. Significant performance benefits can be realized if the solid rocket motors are optimized to the changing requirements. While SRMs represent a fixed performance at launch, rapid design iterations enable flexibility at design time, yielding significant performance gains. The streamlining and integration of SRM design and analysis can be achieved with improved analysis tools. While powerful and versatile, the Solid Performance Program (SPP) is not conducive to rapid design iteration. Performing a design iteration with SPP and a trajectory solver is a labor intensive process. To enable a better workflow, SPP, the Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST), and the interfaces between them have been improved and automated, and a graphical user interface (GUI) has been developed. The GUI enables real-time visual feedback of grain and nozzle design inputs, enforces parameter dependencies, removes redundancies, and simplifies manipulation of SPP and POST's numerous options. Automating the analysis also simplifies batch analyses and trade studies. Finally, the GUI provides post-processing, visualization, and comparison of results. Wrapping legacy high-fidelity analysis codes with modern software provides the improved interface necessary to enable rapid coupled SRM ballistics and vehicle trajectory analysis. Low cost trade studies demonstrate the sensitivities of flight performance metrics to propulsion characteristics. Incorporating high fidelity analysis from SPP into vehicle design reduces performance margins and improves reliability. By flying an SRM designed with the same assumptions as the rest of the vehicle, accurate comparisons can be made between competing architectures. In summary, this flexible workflow is a critical component to designing a versatile launch vehicle model that can accommodate a volatile mission scope.

Ables, Brett

Dawn Orbit Determination Team : Trajectory Modeling and Reconstruction Processes at Vesta

The NASA Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27, 2007 on a mission to study the asteroid belt's two largest objects, Vesta and Ceres. It is the first deep space orbiting mission to demonstrate solar-electric ion propulsion, providing the necessary delta-V to enable capture and escape from two extraterrestrial bodies. At this time, Dawn has completed its science campaign at Vesta and is currently on its journey to Ceres, where it will arrive in mid-2015. The spacecraft spent over a year in orbit around Vesta from July 2011 through August 2012, capturing science data during four dedicated orbit phases. In order to maintain the reference orbits necessary for science and enable the transfers between those orbits, precise and timely orbit determination was required. The constraints associated with low-thrust ion propulsion coupled with the relatively unknown a priori gravity and rotation models for Vesta presented unique challenges for the Dawn orbit determination team. While [1] discusses the prediction performance of the orbit determination products, this paper discusses the dynamics models, filter configuration, and data processing implemented to deliver a rapid orbit determination capability to the Dawn project.

Vesta