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NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of trend analyses for Umkehr data using new and previous inversion algorithms

Ozone vertical profile Umkehr data for layers 3-9 obtained from 12 stations, using both previous and new inversion algorithms, were analyzed for trends. The trends estimated for the Umkehr data from the two algorithms were compared using two data periods, 1968-1991 and 1977-1991. Both nonseasonal and seasonal trend models were fitted. The overall annual trends are found to be significantly negative, of the order of -5% per decade, for layers 7 and 8 using both inversion algorithms. The largest negative trends occur in these layers under the new algorithm, whereas in the previous algorithm the most negative trend occurs in layer 9. The trend estimates, both annual and seasonal, are substantially different between the two algorithms mainly for layers 3, 4, and 9, where trends from the new algorithm data are about 2% per decade less negative, with less appreciable differences in layers 7 and 8. The trend results from the two data periods are similar, except for layer 3 where trends become more negative, by about -2% per decade, for 1977-1991.

Reinsel, Gregory C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Northern middle-latitude ozone profile features and trends observed by SBUV and Umkehr, 1979-1990

A comparison of Umkehr ozone profile data with the reprocessed solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone data in the northern middle-latitude region, 30 deg to 50 deg N, is reported. Although significant biases exist between the two types of observations, the long-term variations and least squares linear regression trends agree remarkably well over the comparison period of 1979 to 1990. The ozone trend in the upper stratosphere is of the order of -0.9%/yr. Near 25 km, little if any trend appears, but a larger negative trend is seen in the lower stratosphere near 15 km. Comparisons show that the average annual ozone cycles in the profiles also agree well. The upper stratospheric ozone results are consistent with photochemical model predictions of ozone depletion near 40 km that are due to the release of anthropogenically produced chlorofluorocarbons. The lower stratospheric ozone trend results are in reasonable agreement with published ozonesonde data trends. It is shown that the ozone trends in the lower stratospheric layers impact significantly on the total ozone trend of the order of -0.47%/yr. The good agreement now seen between the two types of observations suggest that the combined ground-based and satellite approach could provide a valuable database for long-term monitoring of stratospheric ozone for trends and extraordinary variations.

Deluisi, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Upper Stratospheric Ozone Trends from 1979 to 1996

The time series of differences in coincident measurements of ozone by Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) and by Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV), SBUV/2, Umkehr and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) are analyzed, and the slopes in the differences are calculated. SAGE ozone measurements are also compared against those by HALOE. The purpose of these comparisons is to look for statistically significant nonzero slopes which could indicate long-term calibration problems in one or more of the measurement systems. It is found that the slopes are remarkably similar between the Northern and Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, and, apart from a few exceptions, the slopes are also similar in the tropics. Slopes of MLS-SAGE differences and HALOE-SAGE trends from approximately 1992 to 1996 have values of approximately -0.5 +/- 0.4%/yr (95% confidence limits) in Umkehr layers 7-9 (which are centered at approx. 37, 42, and 47 km altitude). Umkehr-SAGE slopes for 1979-1996, however, are almost all positive and in the range -0.1 - 0.41%/yr for Umkehr layers 4 - 8, while SBUV-SAGE slopes for 1979-1989 are essentially zero in layers 4 - 7 and 0.3-0.4%/yr in layers 8 and 9. Averaging all these results with SBUV-SAGE 11 slopes from 1985 to 1989, the other sensors minus SAGE slopes are most likely between 0.2 and -0.2%/yr1 from approx. 20 to 40 km altitude. The results indicate slightly negative slopes in Umkehr layers 5-7 and positive slopes in the other three layers. There thus appears to be no overall drift in the SAGE ozone measurements from 1979 to 1996, but SAGE sunrise/sunset trend differences greater than 40 km altitude, combined with the more accurate SBUV-SAGE slopes for 1979-1989, suggest a most likely slope range of 0.4 to -0.4%/yr between 40 and 50 km altitude. SBUV/2 measurements from 1989 to 1994 have an upward trend with respect to SAGE measurements of approx. 0.7% /yr with some altitudinal structure; this slope exceeds the estimated 95% uncertainties on the SBUV/2 trends.

Cunnold, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature and ozone profile data for trends and model comparison

Work performed during the project period July 1, 1990 to June 30, 1992 on the statistical analysis of stratospheric temperature data, rawinsonde temperature data, and ozone profile data for the detection of trends is described. Our principal topics of research are trend analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data over the period 1978-1989; trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data for the period 1964-1988; trend analysis of Umkehr ozone profile data for the period 1977-1991; and comparison of observed ozone and temperature trends in the lower stratosphere. Analysis of NOAA stratospheric temperature data indicates the existence of large negative trends at 0.4 mb level, with magnitudes increasing with latitudes away from the equator. Trend analysis of rawinsonde temperature data over 184 stations shows significant positive trends about 0.2 C per decade at surface to 500 mb range, decreasing to negative trends about -0.3 C at 100 to 50 mb range, and increasing slightly at 30 mb level. There is little evidence of seasonal variation in trends. Analysis of Umkehr ozone data for 12 northern hemispheric stations shows significant negative trends about -.5 percent per year in Umkehr layers 7-9 and layer 3, but somewhat less negative trends in layers 4-6. There is no pronounced seasonal variation in trends, especially in layers 4-9. A comparison was made of empirical temperature trends from rawinsonde data in the lower stratosphere with temperature changes determined from a one-dimensional radiative transfer calculation that prescribed a given ozone change over the altitude region, surface to 50 km, obtained from trend analysis of ozonsonde and Umkehr profile data. The empirical and calculated temperature trends are found in substantive agreement in profile shape and magnitude.

Tiao, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Critical Evaluation of 0-30 km Profile Information in Ground-Based Zenith-Sky and Satellite-Measured Backscattered UV Radiation

We now have several decades of experience in deriving vertical ozone profiles from the measurements of diffuse ultraviolet radiation by both ground and satellite-based instruments using Umkehr and BUV techniques. Continuing technological advances are pushing the state-of-the-art of these measurements to high spectral resolution and broader wavelength coverage. These modern instruments include the ground-based Brewer and satellite-based Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME) instruments, as well as advanced instruments being developed by ESA(SCIAMACHY), Netherlands(OMI) and Japan(ODUS). However, one of the issues that remains unresolved is the 0-30 km ozone profile information retrievable from these measurements. Though it is commonly believed that both the Umkehr and the satellite-based BUV techniques have very limited profile information below 30 km, there are those who argue that the data from these instruments should continue to be reported in this altitude range for they compare well with ozonesondes and hence there is useful scientific information. Others claim that the limitations of the Umkehr and BUV techniques are largely due to their low spectral resolution, and that the profile information below 30 km can be greatly improved by going to high spectral resolution instruments, such as Brewer and GOME. The purpose of this paper is to provide a critical evaluation of the 0-30 km ozone profile information in the various UV remote sensing techniques. We use a database of individual ozone profiles created using ozonesondes and SAGE and 4D ozone fields generated by data assimilation techniques to simulate radiances measured by the various techniques. We then apply a common inversion approach to all the methods to systematically examine how much profile information is available simply from the knowledge of total ozone, how much additional profile information is added by the traditional Dobson Umkehr and satellite buv techniques, and how much better one can do by adding additional wavelengths and by going to higher spectral resolution. An open and honest discussion of these issues is critical to provide the ozone science community a realistic assessment of the quality of data in the lower stratosphere and troposphere expected from both past and future instruments.

Bhartia, Pawan↗
NASA NTRS1989

Trends in ozone profile measurements

From an examination of the agreements and differences between different satellite instruments, it is difficult to believe that existing satellite instruments determine upper stratospheric ozone much better than 4 pct.; by extension, it probably would require at least a 4 pct. change to be reliably detected as a change. The best estimates of the vertical profiles of ozone change in the upper stratosphere between 1979 and 1986 are judged to be those given by the two SAGE satellite instruments. SAGE-2 minus SAGE-1 gives a much lower ozone reduction than that given by the archived Solar Backscatter UV data. The average SAGE profiles of ozone changes between 20 and 50 degs north and between 20 and 50 degs south are given. The SAGE-1 and SAGE-2 comparison gives an ozone reduction of about 4 pct. at 25 km over temperate latitudes. Five ground based Umkehr stations between 36 and 52 degs north, corrected for the effects of volcanic aerosols, report an ozone reduction between 1979 and 1987 at Umkehr layer 8 of 9 + or - 5 pct. The central estimate of upper stratospheric ozone reduction given by SAGE at 40 km is less than the central value estimated by the Umkehr method at layer 8.

Johnston, H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles: Implications for ozone trends

Solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) ozone profiles have been compared with Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II profiles over the period October 1984 through June 1990, when data are available from both instruments. SBUV measurements were selected to closely match the SAGE II latitude/longitude measurement pattern. There are significant differences between the SAGE II sunrise and the sunset zonal mean ozone profiles in the equatorial zone, particularly in the upper stratosphere, that may be connected with extreme SAGE II solar azimuth angles for tropical sunrise measurements. Calculation of the average sunset bias between SBUV and SAGE II ozone profiles shows that allowing for diurnal variation in Umkehr layer 10, SBUV and SAGE II agree to within +/- 5% for the entire stratosphere in the northern midlatitude zone. The worst agreement is seen at southern midlatitudes near the ozone peak (disagreements of +/- 10%), apparently the result of the SBUV ozone profile peaking at a lower altitude than SAGE. The integrated ozone columns (cumulative above 15 km) agree very well, to within +/- 2.3% in all zones for both sunset and sunrise measurements. A comparison of the time dependence of SBUV and SAGE II shows that there was less than +/- 5% relative drift over the 5.5 years for all altitudes except below 25 km, where the SBUV vertical resolution is poor. The best agreement with SAGE is seen in the integrated column ozone (cumulative above 15 km), where SAGE II has a 1% negative trend relative to SBUV over the comparison period. There is a persistent disagreement of the two instruments in Umkehr layers 9 and 10 of +/- 4% over the 5.5-year comparison period. In the equatorial zone this disagreement may be caused in part by a large positive trend (0.8 K per year) in the National Meteorologica Center temperatures used to convert the SAGE II measurement of ozone density versus altitude to a pressure scale for comparison with SBUV. In the middle stratosphere (30-40 km), SBUV shows a 2-4% negative drift relative to SAGE II. If the actual ozone trends are considered, SBUV and SAGE II agree in showing little ozone change (less than 2%) between 1984 and 1990, except in layer 3 where SAGE II measures a large ozone decrease. But over 11 years, SBUV measured a 7% per decade ozone decrease between 40 and 50 km, decreasing in magnitude at lower altitudes, in good agreement with 11-year trends derived from the average of 5 Umkehr stations.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evaluating the Information Content of Newly Retrieved SAGEII NO2 Measurements in the Lower Stratosphere

The objective of this research project is: to calculate ozone trends in the stratosphere from Dobson Umkehr measurements, to determine the vertical profile of trends at Arosa by using a sophisticated statistical model (MARCH) to separate solar, aerosol, and QBO effects on Dobson Umkehr measurements, and to compare Umkehr trends with SBUV and SAGE I/II trends in the stratosphere.

Newchurch, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Average ozone profiles for 1979 from the Nimbus 7 SBUV instrument

Monthly average ozone profiles from the first year of operation of the solar backscattered ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument on the Nimbus 7 satellite (November 1978 through October 1979) are tabulated for 10 deg latitude bands from 80 deg S to 80 deg N. For each month and latitude zone layer ozone amounts, standard deviations for 12 Umkehr layers (approximately 0-60 km), and the average total ozone for each zone are listed. The ozone mixing ratio and number density at the center of each layer are also given. It is found that the average SBUV profiles agree with average Umkehr profiles measured at Boulder to within 10 percent over most of the range. The Krueger-Minizner model is found to be a good representative ozone model for 45 deg N, agreeing with an annual average of measured profiles to better than 10 percent between 20 and 60 km.

Mcpeters, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

The latitudinal distribution of ozone to 35 km altitude from ECC ozonesonde observations, 1982-1990

Electrochemical concentration cell (ECC) ozone-sonde observations, made in recent years at ten stations whose locations range from the Arctic to Antarctica, have yielded a self-consistent ozone data base from which mean seasonal and annual latitudinal ozone vertical distributions to 35 km have been derived. Ozone measurement uncertainties are estimated, and results are presented in the Bass-Paur (1985) ozone absorption coefficient scale adopted for use with Dobson ozone spectrophotometers January 1, 1992. The data should be useful for comparison with model calculations of the global distribution of atmospheric ozone, for serving as apriori statistical information in deriving ozone vertical distributions from satellite and Umkehr observations, and for improving the satellite and Umkehr ozone inversion algorithms. Attention is drawn to similar results based on a less comprehensive data set published in Ozone in the Atmosphere, Proceedings of the 1988 Quadrennial Ozone Symposium where errors in data tabulations occurred for three of the stations due to inadvertent transposition of ozone partial pressure and air temperature values.

Komhyr, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Upper-Stratospheric Ozone Trends 1979-1998

Extensive analyses of ozone observations between 1978 and 1998 measured by Dobson Umkehr, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) I and II, and Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) and (SBUV)/2 indicate continued significant ozone decline throughout the extratropical upper stratosphere from 30-45 km altitude. The maximum annual linear decline of -0.8 +/- 0.2 %/yr(2sigma) occurs at 40 km and is well described in terms of a linear decline modulated by the 11-year solar variation. The minimum decline of -0.110.1% yr-1(2o) occurs at 25 km in midlatitudes, with remarkable symmetry between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres at 40 km altitude. Midlatitude upper-stratospheric zonal trends exhibit significant seasonal variation (+/- 30% in the Northern Hemisphere, +/- 40% in the Southern Hemisphere) with the most negative trends of -1.2%/yr occurring in the winter. Significant seasonal trends of -0.7 to -0.9%/yr occur at 40 km in the tropics between April and September. Subjecting the statistical models used to calculate the ozone trends to intercomparison tests on a variety of common data sets yields results that indicate the standard deviation between trends estimated by 10 different statistical models is less than 0.1%/yr in the annual-mean trend for SAGE data and less than 0.2%/yr in the most demanding conditions (seasons with irregular, sparse data) [World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1998]. These consistent trend results between statistical models together with extensive consistency between the independent measurement-system trend observations by Dobson Umkehr, SAGE I and II, and SBUV and SBUV/2 provide a high degree of confidence in the accuracy of the declining ozone amounts reported here. Additional details of ozone trend results from 1978 to 1996 (2 years shorter than reported here) along with lower-stratospheric and tropospheric ozone trends, extensive intercomparisons to assess relative instrument drifts, and retrieval algorithm details are given by WMO [1998].

Newchurch, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

User's guide for the Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument first year ozone-S data set

Total-ozone and ozone vertical profile results for Solar Backscattered Ultraviolet/Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (SBUV/TOMS) Nimbus 7 operation from November 1978 to November 1979 are available. The algorithm used have been thoroughly tested, the instrument performance has been examined in details, and the ozone results have been compared with Dobson, Umkehr, balloon, and rocket observations. The accuracy and precision of the satellite ozone data are good to at least within the ability of the ground truth to check and are self-consistent to within the specifications of the instrument. The 'SBUV User's Guide' describes the SBUV experiment and algorithms used. Detailed information on the data available on computer tape is provided including how to order tapes from the National Space Science Data Center.

Fleig, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Periodic and aperiodic ozone variations in the middle and upper stratosphere

Umkehr, ozonesonde and satellite observations are used to determine the height/latitude distribution of the amplitude and phase of the periodic components of the variation in the ozone mixing ratio in the middle and upper stratosphere. The amplitude of the first (annual) harmonic is found to be small in the subtropics and to increase to a maximum at polar latitudes. In addition, it increases with height in the mid and upper stratosphere to an apparent maximum just below the stratosphere. The second (semi-annual) harmonic possesses an amplitude that is largest in tropical regions and in subpolar regions at a level of about 40 km. Very little ozone variation is seen above 30 km with dominant periods close to the quasi-biennial period of total ozone observed in the tropics. The percentage of the total variance of the ozone mixing ratio accounted for by the first harmonic is found to be larger than 60 percent at all heights from 20 deg to 60 deg latitude in both hemispheres (except near 40 km in the Northern Hemisphere).

London, J.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Ozone profile intercomparison based on simultaneous observations between 20 and 40 km

The vertical distribution of stratospheric ozone has been simultaneously measured by means of five different instruments carried on the same balloon payload. The launches were performed from Gap during the intercomparison campaign conducted in June 1981 in southern France. Data obtained between altitudes of 20 and 40 km are compared and discussed. Vertical profiles deduced from Electrochemical Concentration Cell sondes launched from the same location by small balloons and from short Umkehr measurements made at Mt Chiran (France) are also included in this comparison. Systematic differences of the order of 20 percent between ozone profiles deduced from solar u.v. absorption and in situ techniques are found.

Aimedieu, P.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Standard ozone profiles from balloon and satellite data sets

Standard profiles based on upper level averaged profiles from BUV and lower level averaged profiles from balloon measurements are presented in a parametric representation as a function of time of year and latitude. The representation is a simple 4-parameter function representing the ozone amount (m-atm-cm) in each of 12 atmospheric layers defined following the standard Umkehr convention. The same parameterization is applied to the Nimbus-7 SBUV data and is compared to the BUV/balloon parameterization. The ozone variance unaccounted for by the representation is presented and discussed. The season-latitude representation reduces considerably the ozone variance at all levels and explains much of the correlation between layers. This simple representation and corresponding covariance matrix have been used as a priori information in the ozone vertical profile inversion of the Nimbus-7 SBUV experimental measurements.

Klenk, K. F.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The validation of Nimbus 7 LIMS measurements of ozone

Approximately seven and one half months of stratospheric ozone profiles have been processed from the LIMS (Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere) experiment on the Nimbus 7 satellite. Data profiles cover the stratosphere and mesosphere from 100 to 0.1 mbar and from 84 degrees N to 64 degrees S latitude. Topics covered include the ozone channel characteristics, precision, systematic uncertainties, and comparisons with data from balloon and rocket underflights, Umkehr soundings, and Dobson measurements. Comparisons with Dobson total ozone are made by integrating combined LIMS plus balloon profiles. The estimated on-orbit precision is 0.02-0.16 ppmv. Simulations of the experiment indicate potential systematic uncertainties ranging from 15 percent in the 1-mbar region to an upper limit of 40 percent at 100 mbar and 0.1 mbar. Results are well within the uncertainties for the correlative sensors themselves. LIMS detects significant vertical structure in the ozone profile even below the ozone mixing ratio peak. Several other comparisons showing good agreement are noted.

Remsberg, E. E.↗