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Enhanced Groundwater Recharge Rates and Altered Recharge Sensitivity to Climate Variability Through Subsurface Heterogeneity

Our environment is heterogeneous. In hydrological sciences, the heterogeneity of subsurface properties, such as hydraulic conductivities or porosities, exerts an important control on water balance. This notably includes groundwater recharge, which is an important variable for efficient and sustainable groundwater resources management. Current large-scale hydrological models do not adequately consider this subsurface heterogeneity. Here we show that regions with strong subsurface heterogeneity have enhanced present and future recharge rates due to a different sensitivity of recharge to climate variability compared with regions with homogeneous subsurface properties. Our study domain comprises the carbonate rock regions of Europe, Northern Africa, and the Middle East, which cover 25 of the total land area. We compare the simulations of two large-scale hydrological models, one of them accounting for subsurface heterogeneity. Carbonate rock regions strongly exhibit karstification, which is known to produce particularly strong subsurface heterogeneity. Aquifers from these regions contribute up to half of the drinking water supply for some European countries. Our results suggest that water management for these regions cannot rely on most of the presently available projections of groundwater recharge because spatially variable storages and spatial concentration of recharge result in actual recharge rates that are up to four times larger for present conditions and changes up to five times larger for potential future conditions than previously estimated. These differences in recharge rates for strongly heterogeneous regions suggest a need for groundwater management strategies that are adapted to the fast transit of water from the surface to the aquifers.

water resources

Strategies for Near Real Time Estimation of Precipitable Water Vapor

Traditionally used for high precision geodesy, the GPS system has recently emerged as an equally powerful tool in atmospheric studies, in particular, climatology and meteorology. There are several products of GPS-based systems that are of interest to climatologists and meteorologists. One of the most useful is the GPS-based estimate of the amount of Precipitable Water Vapor (PWV) in the troposphere. Water vapor is an important variable in the study of climate changes and atmospheric convection (Yuan et al., 1993), and is of crucial importance for severe weather forecasting and operational numerical weather prediction (Kuo et al., 1993).

Bar-Sever, Yoaz E.

Diurnal variability of regional cloud and clear-sky radiative parameters derived from GOES data. I - Analysis method. II - November 1978 cloud distributions. III - November 1978 radiative parameters

Cloud cover is one of the most important variables affecting the earth radiation budget (ERB) and, ultimately, the global climate. The present investigation is concerned with several aspects of the effects of extended cloudiness, taking into account hourly visible and infrared data from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satelite (GOES). A methodology called the hybrid bispectral threshold method is developed to extract regional cloud amounts at three levels in the atmosphere, effective cloud-top temperatures, clear-sky temperature and cloud and clear-sky visible reflectance characteristics from GOES data. The diurnal variations are examined in low, middle, high, and total cloudiness determined with this methodology for November 1978. The bulk, broadband radiative properties of the resultant cloud and clear-sky data are estimated to determine the possible effect of the diurnal variability of regional cloudiness on the interpretation of ERB measurements.

Minnis, P.

Effect of forest canopy closure on incoming solar radiance

In order to better understand the physical processes involved in defoliation assessment from remotely sensed data, a field study was designed to investigate the effect of forest canopy closure and other environmental variables on incoming solar radiation. Diffuse radiation measurements were recorded in red, infrared, and middle infrared wavelengths using the Mark 2 three band field radiometer. Results to date indicate that the percent canopy closure is the single most important variable affecting incoming solar radiation. In the visible and near infrared regions, interaction between time of day and date (defined later as solar zenith angle) also affect radiometric response. Aspect has only limited influence on radiance response. These same variables do not influence middle infrared response, however. Uniformity of the forest canopy appears to be more important. These results are compared to LANDSAT MSS classification results of gypsy moth defoliation.

Dottavio, C. L.

Towards an MHD Theory for the Standoff Distance of Earth's Bow Shock

A magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) theory is developed for the standoff distance a(s) of the bow shock and the thickness Delta(ms) of the magnetosheath, using the empirical Spreiter et al. relation Delta(ms) = kX and the MHD density ratio X across the shock. The theory includes as special cases the well-known gasdynamic theory and associated phenomenological MHD-like models for Delta(ms) and As. In general, however, MHD effects produce major differences from previous models, especially at low Alfev (Ma) and Sonic (Ms) Mach numbers. The magnetic field orientation Ma, Ms and the ratio of specific heats gamma are all important variables of the theory. In contrast, the fast mode Mach number need play no direct role. Three principle conclusions are reached. First the gasdynamic and phenomenological models miss important dependences of field orientation and Ms generally provide poor approximations to the MHD results. Second, changes in field orientation and Ms are predicted to cause factor of approximately 4 changes in Delta(ms) at low Ma. These effects should be important when predicting the shock's location or calculating gramma from observations. Third, using Spreiter et al.'s value for k in the MHD theory leads to maxima a(s) values at low Ma and nominal Ms that are much smaller than observations and MHD simulations require. Resolving this problem requires either the modified Spreiter-like relation and larger k found in recent MHD simulations and/or a breakdown in the Spreiter-like relation at very low Ma.

Carins, Iver H.

Relationships between pediatric asthma and socioeconomic/urban variables in Baltimore, Maryland

Spatial relationships between clinical data for pediatric asthmatics (hospital and emergency department utilization rates), and socioeconomic and urban characteristics in Baltimore City were analyzed with the aim of identifying factors that contribute to increased asthma rates. Socioeconomic variables and urban characteristics derived from satellite data explained 95% of the spatial variation in hospital rates. The proportion of families headed by a single female was the most important variable accounting for 89% of the spatial variation. Evidence suggests that the high rates of hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits may partially be due to the difficulty of single parents with limited resources managing their child's asthma condition properly. This knowledge can be used for education towards mitigating ED and hospital events in Baltimore City.

Emergency Service, Hospital/utilization

Estimation of Surface Air Temperature from MODIS 1km Resolution Land Surface Temperature Over Northern China

Surface air temperature is a critical variable to describe the energy and water cycle of the Earth-atmosphere system and is a key input element for hydrology and land surface models. It is a very important variable in agricultural applications and climate change studies. This is a preliminary study to examine statistical relationships between ground meteorological station measured surface daily maximum/minimum air temperature and satellite remotely sensed land surface temperature from MODIS over the dry and semiarid regions of northern China. Studies were conducted for both MODIS-Terra and MODIS-Aqua by using year 2009 data. Results indicate that the relationships between surface air temperature and remotely sensed land surface temperature are statistically significant. The relationships between the maximum air temperature and daytime land surface temperature depends significantly on land surface types and vegetation index, but the minimum air temperature and nighttime land surface temperature has little dependence on the surface conditions. Based on linear regression relationship between surface air temperature and MODIS land surface temperature, surface maximum and minimum air temperatures are estimated from 1km MODIS land surface temperature under clear sky conditions. The statistical errors (sigma) of the estimated daily maximum (minimum) air temperature is about 3.8 C(3.7 C).

Shen, Suhung

Wind tunnel investigation of nacelle-airframe interference at Mach numbers of 0.9 to 1.4 - pressure data, volume 1

Detailed interference force and pressure data were obtained on a representative wing-body nacelle combination at Mach numbers of 0.9 to 1.4. The model consisted of a delta wing-body aerodynamic force model with four independently supported nacelles located beneath the wing-body combination. The model was mounted on a six component force balance, and the left hand wing was pressure instrumented. Each of the two right hand nacelles was mounted on a six component force balance housed in the thickness of the nacelle, while each of the left hand nacelles was pressure instrumented. The primary variables examined included Mach number, angle of attack, nacelle position, and nacelle mass flow ratio. Nacelle axial location, relative to both the wing-body combination and to each other, was the most important variable in determining the net interference among the components.

Bencze, D. P.

Utilization of the graded universal testing system to increase the efficiency for assessing aerobic and anaerobic capacity

The in-flight exercise test performed by cosmonauts as part of the Russian Exercise Countermeasure Program is limited to 5 minutes due to communication restrictions. During a recent graded exercise test on a U.S. Shuttle flight, the test was terminated early due to an upcoming loss of signal (LOS) with the ground. This exercise test was a traditional test where the subject's exercise capacity dictates the length of the test. For example, one crew member may take 15 minutes to complete the test, while another may take 18 minutes. The traditional exercise test limits the flight schedulers to large blocks of space flight time in order to provide medical and research personnel information on the fitness capacity (maximal oxygen uptake: VO2max) of crew members during flight. A graded exercise test that would take a finite amount of time and a set preparation and recovery time would ease this problem by allowing flight schedulers to plan exercise tests in advance of LOS. The Graded Universal Testing System (GUTS) was designed to meet this goal. Fitness testing of astronauts before and after flight provides pertinent data on many variables. The Detailed Supplemental Objective (DSO608) protocol (6) is one of the graded exercise tests (GXT) currently used in astronaut testing before and after flight. Test times for this protocol have lasted from 11 to 18 minutes. Anaerobic capacity is an important variable that is currently not being evaluated before and after flight. Recent reports (1,2,5) from the literature have suggested that the oxygen deficit at supramaximal exercise is a measure of anaerobic capacity. We postulated that the oxygen deficit at maximal exercise would be an indication of anaerobic capacity. If this postulate can be accepted, then the efficiency of acquiring data from a graded exercise test would increase at least twofold. To examine this hypothesis anaerobic capacity was measured using a modified treadmill test (3,4) designed to exhaust the anaerobic systems in approximately 45 to 75 seconds. Lactate concentration in the blood was analyzed after all tests, since lactate is the end-product of anaerobic energy production. Therefore, the peak lactate response is an additional indication of anaerobic capacity. A preliminary comparison of the GUTS and the DSO608 suggests that the GUTS protocol would increase the efficiency of VO2max testing of astronauts before and after flight. Results for anaerobic capacity have not been tabulated.

Rodgers, Sandra L.

Relative toxicity of products of pyrolysis and combustion of polymeric materials using various test conditions

Relative toxicity data for a large number of natural and synthetic polymeric materials are presented which were obtained by 11 pyrolysis and three flaming-combustion test methods. The materials tested include flexible and rigid polyurethane foams, different kinds of fabrics and woods, and a variety of commodity polymers such as polyethylene. Animal exposure chambers of different volumes containing mice, rats, or rabbits were used in the tests, which were performed over the temperature range from ambient to 800 C with and without air flow or recirculation. The test results are found to be sensitive to such variables as exposure mode, temperature, air flow and dilution, material concentration, and animal species, but relative toxicity rankings appear to be similar for many methods and materials. It is concluded that times to incapacitance and to death provide a more suitable basis for relative toxicity rankings than percent mortality alone, that temperature is the most important variable in the tests reported, and that variables such as chamber volume and animal species may not significantly affect the rankings.

Hilado, C. J.

A New Approach to Monitoring Coastal Marshes for Persistent Flooding

Many areas in coastal Louisiana are below sea level and protected from flooding by a system of natural and man-made levees. Flooding is common when the levees are overtopped by storm surge or rising rivers. Many levees in this region are further stressed by erosion and subsidence. The floodwaters can become constricted by levees and trapped, causing prolonged inundation. Vegetative communities in coastal regions, from fresh swamp forest to saline marsh, can be negatively affected by inundation and changes in salinity. As saltwater persists, it can have a toxic effect upon marsh vegetation causing die off and conversion to open water types, destroying valuable species habitats. The length of time the water persists and the average annual salinity are important variables in modeling habitat switching (cover type change). Marsh type habitat switching affects fish, shellfish, and wildlife inhabitants, and can affect the regional ecosystem and economy. There are numerous restoration and revitalization projects underway in the coastal region, and their effects on the entire ecosystem need to be understood. For these reasons, monitoring persistent saltwater intrusion and inundation is important. For this study, persistent flooding in Louisiana coastal marshes was mapped using MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) time series of a Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI). The time series data were derived for 2000 through 2009, including flooding due to Hurricane Rita in 2005 and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Using the NDWI, duration and extent of flooding can be inferred. The Time Series Product Tool (TSPT), developed at NASA SSC, is a suite of software developed in MATLAB(R) that enables improved-quality time series images to be computed using advanced temporal processing techniques. This software has been used to compute time series for monitoring temporal changes in environmental phenomena, (e.g. NDVI times series from MODIS), and was modified and used to compute the NDWI indices and also the Normalized Difference Soil Index (NDSI). Coastwide Reference Monitoring System (CRMS) water levels from various hydrologic monitoring stations and aerial photography were used to optimize thresholds for MODIS-derived time series of NDWI and to validate resulting flood maps. In most of the profiles produced for post-hurricane assessment, the increase in the NDWI index (from storm surge) is accompanied by a decrease in the vegetation index (NDVI) and then a period of declining water. The NDSI index represents non-green or dead vegetation and increases after the hurricane s destruction of the marsh vegetation. Behavior of these indices over time is indicative of which areas remain flooded, which areas recover to their former levels of vegetative vigor, and which areas are stressed or in transition. Tracking these indices over time shows the recovery rate of vegetation and the relative behavior to inundation persistence. The results from this study demonstrated that identification of persistent marsh flooding, utilizing the tools developed in this study, provided an approximate 70-80 percent accuracy rate when compared to the actual days flooded at the CRMS stations.

Kalcic, M. T.

The effects of forced air flow and oxygen concentration on flammability, smoke density, and pyrolytic toxicity

The question is posed whether forced air flow should be incorporated into flammability tests as a relevant variable. A test apparatus is described which permits tests to be conducted on small test specimens in a forced flow which is (continuously) variable over flow velocities from zero to 300 feet per minute (1.52 m/s). The effects of air-flow rate and oxygen concentration on flame propagation rate, maximum smoke density, and pyrolytic product toxicity were measured for a single material and were statistically evaluated. Regression analysis was used to graph the resulting relationships. It is concluded that air velocity is an important variable for laboratory flammability testing.

Sauers, D. G.

Demonstration of the Application of Composite Load Spectra (CLS) and Probabilistic Structural Analysis (PSAM) Codes to SSME Heat Exchanger Turnaround Vane

This report describes a probabilistic structural analysis performed to determine the probabilistic structural response under fluctuating random pressure loads for the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) turnaround vane. It uses a newly developed frequency and distance dependent correlation model that has features to model the decay phenomena along the flow and across the flow with the capability to introduce a phase delay. The analytical results are compared using two computer codes SAFER (Spectral Analysis of Finite Element Responses) and NESSUS (Numerical Evaluation of Stochastic Structures Under Stress) and with experimentally observed strain gage data. The computer code NESSUS with an interface to a sub set of Composite Load Spectra (CLS) code is used for the probabilistic analysis. A Fatigue code was used to calculate fatigue damage due to the random pressure excitation. The random variables modeled include engine system primitive variables that influence the operating conditions, convection velocity coefficient, stress concentration factor, structural damping, and thickness of the inner and outer vanes. The need for an appropriate correlation model in addition to magnitude of the PSD is emphasized. The study demonstrates that correlation characteristics even under random pressure loads are capable of causing resonance like effects for some modes. The study identifies the important variables that contribute to structural alternate stress response and drive the fatigue damage for the new design. Since the alternate stress for the new redesign is less than the endurance limit for the material, the damage due high cycle fatigue is negligible.

Rajagopal, Kadambi R.

Wind tunnel investigation of Nacelle-Airframe interference at Mach numbers of 0.9 to 1.4-pressure data, volume 2

Detailed interference force and pressure data were obtained on a representative wing-body nacelle combination at Mach numbers of 0.9 to 1.4. The model consisted of a delta wing-body aerodynamic force model with four independently supported nacelles located beneath the wing-body combination. The primary variables examined included Mach number, angle of attack, nacelle position, and nacelle mass flow ratio. Four different configurations were tested to identify various interference forces and pressures on each component; these included tests of the isolated nacelle, the isolated wing-body combination, the four nacelles as a unit, and the total wing-body-nacelle combination. Nacelle axial location, relative to both the wing-body combination and to each other, was the most important variable in determining the net interference among the components. The overall interference effects were found to be essentially constant over the operating angle-of-attack range of the configuration, and nearly independent of nacelle mass flow ratio.

Bencze, D. P.

Wind tunnel investigation of Nacelle-Airframe interference at Mach numbers of 0.9 to 1.4-force data

Detailed interference force and pressure data were obtained on a representative wing-body-nacelle combination at Mach numbers of 0.9 to 1.4. The model consisted of a delta wing-body aerodynamic force model with four independently supported nacelles located beneath the wing-body combination. The model was mounted on a six-component force balance, and the left-hand wing was pressure-instrumented. Each of the two right-hand nacelles was mounted on a six-component force balance housed in the thickness of the nacelle, while each of the left-hand nacelles was pressure-instrumented. The primary variables examined included Mach number, angle of attack, nacelle position, and nacelle mass-flow ratio. Four different configurations were tested to identify various interference forces and pressures on each component; these included tests of the isolated nacelle, the isolated wing-body combination, the four nacelles as a unit, and the total wing-body-nacelle combination. Nacelle axial location, relative to both the wing-body combination and to each other, was the most important variable in determining the net interference among the components.

Bencze, D. P.

Sea Ice Floe Distribution in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas Measured by ERS-1 SAR

This study examines the spatial and temporal character of sea ice floe size distribution during summer melt, important variables for understanding the summer heat and mass budgets and the distribution of heat between the vertical and horizontal ice melt. Preliminary results are presented that indicate the gradual decrease in medium size floes (1-5 km diameters) and a fairly steady maintenance of floes smaller than 1 km in diameter over the primary summer months within the central pack ice region. The latter result indicates that smaller floes continue to melt or decay rather than accumulate, indicating the importance of dynamics in affecting ice melt.

sea ice floes SAR imagery Beaufort Sea Chukchi Sea

An analysis of job placement patterns of black and non-black male and female undergraduates at the University of Virginia and Hampton Institute

Research questions were proposed to determine the relationship between independent variables (race, sex, and institution attended) and dependent variables (number of job offers received, salary received, and willingness to recommend source of employer contact). The control variables were academic major, grade point average, placement registration, nonemployment activity, employer, and source of employer contact. An analysis of the results revealed no statistical significance of the institution attended as a predictor of job offers or salary, although significant relationships were found between race and sex and number of job offers received. It was found that academic major, grade point average, and source of employer contact were more useful than race in the prediction of salary. Sex and nonemployment activity were found to be the most important variables in the model. The analysis also indicated that Black students received more job offers than non-Black students.

Anderson, A. F.

Signatures of aerosol-cloud interactions in GiOcean: a coupled global reanalysis with two-moment cloud microphysics

Aerosols influence the Earth's radiative balance through direct interactions with radiation and by affecting cloud properties. Anthropogenic aerosols have led to cooling during the industrial era through aerosol–cloud interactions (ACI), including aerosol effects on cloud microphysical properties and the subsequent adjustments. However, large uncertainties remain in Earth system models (ESMs) regarding the magnitude of this cooling. In part, ESMs substantially disagree on cloud properties, thermodynamics, the hydrological cycle, and general circulation. Reanalysis provides a useful avenue for exploring the impact of ACI on clouds and radiation because its atmosphere is forced to match realistic conditions through the assimilation of observations. Here, we explore the impact of ACI on clouds in the GiOcean reanalysis – the first to incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. We contrast variables important for ACI between GiOcean and satellite observations and develop 2-dimensional lookup tables of ACI for both using a source-sink budget perspective to attribute the changes in cloud droplet number (Nd) and liquid water path (LWP) to aerosol and meteorology. A compositing analysis using lookup tables shows that GiOcean captures key aspects of aerosol–cloud–precipitation interactions, including (1) activation of aerosol into cloud droplets, (2) effective precipitation scavenging of Nd, (3) suppression of precipitation by high Nd in regions with heavy aerosol emissions. In contrast, satellite observations do not exhibit clear patterns for processes (2) and (3). Random Forest analysis shows that interannual variability in Nd and LWP over the Northern Hemisphere ocean in GiOcean is primarily driven by precipitation, consistent with satellite observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH