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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Inclusion of Linearized Moist Physics in Nasa's Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

Inclusion of moist physics in the linearized version of a weather forecast model is beneficial in terms of variational data assimilation. Further, it improves the capability of important tools, such as adjoint-based observation impacts and sensitivity studies. A linearized version of the relaxed Arakawa-Schubert (RAS) convection scheme has been developed and tested in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. A previous study of the RAS scheme showed it to exhibit reasonable linearity and stability. This motivates the development of a linearization of a near-exact version of the RAS scheme. Linearized large-scale condensation is included through simple conversion of supersaturation into precipitation. The linearization of moist physics is validated against the full nonlinear model for 6- and 24-h intervals, relevant to variational data assimilation and observation impacts, respectively. For a small number of profiles, sudden large growth in the perturbation trajectory is encountered. Efficient filtering of these profiles is achieved by diagnosis of steep gradients in a reduced version of the operator of the tangent linear model. With filtering turned on, the inclusion of linearized moist physics increases the correlation between the nonlinear perturbation trajectory and the linear approximation of the perturbation trajectory. A month-long observation impact experiment is performed and the effect of including moist physics on the impacts is discussed. Impacts from moist-sensitive instruments and channels are increased. The effect of including moist physics is examined for adjoint sensitivity studies. A case study examining an intensifying Northern Hemisphere Atlantic storm is presented. The results show a significant sensitivity with respect to moisture.

Convection↗
DOE OSTI2021

Data Assimilation Methods for Dynamical Systems [Slides]

Models are not perfect. Observations are not perfect. Data assimilation combines these sources of imperfect information to provide better information. The outline for this presentation is as follows: Introduction to Data Assimilation Variational Methods 3 Kalman Filter Methods Lorenz 96 EnKF Example Data Assimilation Examples

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS2022

The Joint Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Surface Soil Moisture into a Land Surface Model

This work tests the hypothesis that jointly assimilating satellite observations of leaf area index and surface soil moisture into a land surface model improves the estimation of land vegetation and water variables. An Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to test such hypothesis across the Contiguous United States during April 2015 – December 2018. The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed for several modeled vegetation and water variables (evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and soil moisture) in terms of random errors and anomaly correlation coefficients against a set of independent validation datasets (i.e., Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model, FLUXCOM, and International Soil Moisture Network). Results show that the assimilation of leaf area index mostly improves the estimation of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange, whereas the assimilation of surface soil moisture alone improves surface soil moisture content, especially in the western US, in terms of both root mean squared error and anomaly correlation coefficient. The joint assimilation of vegetation and soil moisture information combines the results of individual vegetation and soil moisture assimilations and reduces errors (and increases correlations with the reference datasets) in evapotranspiration, net ecosystem exchange, and surface soil moisture simulated by the land surface model. However, because soil moisture satellite observations only provide information on the water content in the top 5 cm of the soil column, the impact of the proposed data assimilation technique on root zone soil moisture is limited. This work moves one step forward in the direction of improving our estimation and understanding of land surface interactions using a multi-variate data assimilation approach, which can be particularly useful in regions of the world where ground observations are sparse or missing altogether.

Data assimilation↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2003

Mesoscale Assimilation of TMI Rainfall Data with 4DVAR: Sensitivity Studies

Sensitivity studies are performed on the assimilation of TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission) Microwave Imager (TMI) derived rainfall data into a mesoscale model using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. A series of numerical experiments is conducted to evaluate the impact of TMI rainfall data on the numerical simulation of Hurricane Bonnie (1998). The results indicate that rainfall data assimilation is sensitive to the error characteristics of the data and the inclusion of physics in the adjoint and forward models. In addition, assimilating the rainfall data alone is helpful for producing a more realistic eye and rain bands in the hurricane but does not ensure improvements in hurricane intensity forecasts. Further study indicated that it is necessary to incorporate TMI rainfall data together with other types of data such as wind data into the model, in which case the inclusion of the rainfall data further improves the intensity forecast of the hurricane. This implies that proper constraints may be needed for rainfall assimilation.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2002

The Impact of TRMM Data on Numerical Forecast of Mesoscale Systems

The impact of surface rainfall data derived from the TRMM Microwave Image (TMI) on the numerical forecast of mesoscale systems is evaluated. A series of numerical experiments are performed that assimilate TMI rainfall data into the Penn State University/National Centers for Atmospheric Research (PSU/NCAR) Mesoscale Model version 5 (MM5) using a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) technique. Experiments are conducted incorporating TMI rainfall data into the mesoscale model to improve hurricane initialization. It is found that assimilation of rainfall data into the model is beneficial in producing a more realistic eye and rain bands and also helps to improve the intensity forecast for the hurricane. Further 4DVAR experiments are performed on mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Detailed results and related issues will be presented during the conference.

Pu, Zhao-Xia↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Representation of Aerosols in GMAO’s Newest Reanalyses

Over the past few years, NASA’s Global Modelling and Assimilation Office has been working on the configuration and production of three new reanalysis products, GEOS-IT, GiOcean, and MERRA-21C. GEOS-IT, or the Goddard Earth Observing System for Instrument Teams, is a 3D variational data assimilation system that runs in a near real time framework however retrospectively provides data back through 1998 to deliver a consistent view of the Earth-atmosphere system for the production of observational NASA products. Retrospective production for GEOS-IT is complete and the meteorology has since been used to produce the one way weakly coupled GiOcean reanalysis. Due to differences in the atmospheric model, particularly related to scavenging, aerosols are not identical in GEOS-IT and GiOcean. MERRA-21C, or the Modern Era Restrospective analysis for Research and Applications in the 21st century, is a hybrid 4D ensemble variational system at a finer horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees. Although different in their intended use, and therefore configuration, these systems prominently feature coupling between meteorology and aerosols. The differences and similarities in the aerosol configuration between the three systems will be discussed, covering biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions as well as observations used for the assimilation of aerosol optical depth. A large emphasis will be placed on the version of the underlying aerosol module, GOCART, which underwent a complete refactoring and the addition of radiatively active brown carbon between GEOS-IT and MERRA-21C. Independent observations will be used to evaluate the performance of aerosols in both reanalyses, focusing on aerosol optical depth, surface particulate matter, and vertical profiles of aerosol backscatter.

Allison Collow↗
NASA NTRS2013

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Blankenship, Clay↗
NASA NTRS1988

Application of satellite data in variational analysis for global cyclonic systems

The goal of the research is a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity were defined. The research performed during the second year fall into four areas: sensitivity studies involving Model 1; evaluation of Model 2; reformation of Model 1 for greater compatibility with Model 2; development of Model 3 (radiative transfer equation); and making the model more responsive to the observations.

Achtemeier, G. L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

A Variational Formalism for the Radiative Transfer Equation: Prelude to Model 3

The MODEL III variational data assimilation model is the third of four general assimilation models designed to blend weather data measured from space based platforms in the meteorological data mainstream in a way that maximizes the information content of the satellite data. Because there are many different observation locations and there are many instruments with different measurement error characteristics, it is also necessary to require that the blending be done to maximize the information content of the data and simultaneously to retain a dynamically consistent and reasonably accurate description of the state of the atmosphere. This is ideally a variational problem for which the data receive relative weights that are inversely proportional to measurement error and are adjusted to satisfy a set of dynamical equations that govern atmospheric processes. The advantage of MODEL III over the previous two models is that radiance, the atmospheric variable measured by satellite, becomes a dependent variable. In the previous versions, mean layer temperatures that had been retrieved from the radiances by some method, were included in the assimilation by substituting them in place of the rawinsonde temperatures. Now both rawinsonde temperatures and satellite radiances are included independently in the assimilation.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Application of satellite data in variational analysis for global cyclonic systems

The research goal was a variational data assimilation method that incorporates as dynamical constraints, the primitive equations for a moist, convectively unstable atmosphere and the radiative transfer equation. Variables to be adjusted include the three-dimensional vector wind, height, temperature, and moisture from rawinsonde data, and cloud-wind vectors, moisture, and radiance from satellite data. This presents a formidable mathematical problem. In order to facilitate thorough analysis of each of the model components, four variational models that divide the problem naturally according to increasing complexity are defined. Each model is summarized.

Achtemeier, G. L.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate FourCastNet, a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 data. Our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Adrian, Melissa [Univ. of Chicago, IL (United Stat↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Inversion Analysis of Recent Variability in Natural CO2 Fluxes Using GOSAT and In Situ Observations

About one-half of the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and deforestation accumulates in the atmosphere, where it contributes to global warming. The rest is taken up by vegetation and the ocean. The precise contribution of the two sinks, and their location and year-to-year variability are, however, not well understood. We use two different approaches, batch Bayesian synthesis inversion and variational data assimilation, to deduce the global spatiotemporal distributions of CO2 fluxes during 2009-2010. One of our objectives is to assess different sources of uncertainties in inferred fluxes, including uncertainties in prior flux estimates and observations, and differences in inversion techniques. For prior constraints, we utilize fluxes and uncertainties from the CASA-GFED model of the terrestrial biosphere and biomass burning driven by satellite observations and interannually varying meteorology. We also use measurement-based ocean flux estimates and two sets of fixed fossil CO2 emissions. Here, our inversions incorporate column CO2 measurements from the GOSAT satellite (ACOS retrieval, filtered and bias-corrected) and in situ observations (individual flask and afternoon-average continuous observations) to estimate fluxes in 108 regions over 8-day intervals for the batch inversion and at 3 x 3.75 weekly for the variational system. Relationships between fluxes and atmospheric concentrations are derived consistently for the two inversion systems using the PCTM atmospheric transport model driven by meteorology from the MERRA reanalysis. We compare the posterior fluxes and uncertainties derived using different data sets and the two inversion approaches, and evaluate the posterior atmospheric concentrations against independent data including aircraft measurements. The optimized fluxes generally resemble those from other studies. For example, the results indicate that the terrestrial biosphere is a net CO2 sink, and a GOSAT-only inversion suggests a shift in the global sink from the tropics south to the north relative to the prior and to an in-situ-only inversion. We also find a smaller terrestrial sink in higher-latitude northern regions in boreal summer of 2010 relative to 2009.

Carbon dioxide↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Assimilation with Machine Learning Surrogate Models: A Case Study with FourCastNet

Modern data-driven surrogate models for weather forecasting provide accurate short-term predictions but inaccurate and nonphysical long-term forecasts. This paper investigates online weather prediction using machine learning surrogates supplemented with partial and noisy observations. We empirically demonstrate and theoretically justify that, despite the long-time instability of the surrogates and the sparsity of the observations, filtering estimates can remain accurate in the long-time horizon. As a case study, we integrate the Fourier Forecasting Neural Network (FourCastNet), a weather surrogate model, within a variational data assimilation framework using partial, noisy ERA5 global reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Here, our results show that filtering estimates remain accurate over a year-long assimilation window and provide effective initial conditions for forecasting tasks, including extreme event prediction.

Data assimilation↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using MERRA Gridded Innovations for Quantifying Uncertainties in Analysis Fields and Diagnosing Observing System Inhomogeneities

MERRA is a NASA reanalysis for the satellite era using a major new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5). The project focuses on historical analyses of the hydrological cycle on a broad range of weather and climate time scales and places the NASA EOS suite of observations in a climate context. The characterization of uncertainty in reanalysis fields is a commonly requested feature by users of such data. While intercomparison with reference data sets is common practice for ascertaining the realism of the datasets, such studies typically are restricted to long term climatological statistics and seldom provide state dependent measures of the uncertainties involved. In principle, variational data assimilation algorithms have the ability of producing error estimates for the analysis variables (typically surface pressure, winds, temperature, moisture and ozone) consistent with the assumed background and observation error statistics. However, these "perceived error estimates" are expensive to obtain and are limited by the somewhat simplistic errors assumed in the algorithm. The observation minus forecast residuals (innovations) by-product of any assimilation system constitutes a powerful tool for estimating the systematic and random errors in the analysis fields. Unfortunately, such data is usually not readily available with reanalysis products, often requiring the tedious decoding of large datasets and not so-user friendly file formats. With MERRA we have introduced a gridded version of the observations/innovations used in the assimilation process, using the same grid and data formats as the regular datasets. Such dataset empowers the user with the ability of conveniently performing observing system related analysis and error estimates. The scope of this dataset will be briefly described. We will present a systematic analysis of MERRA innovation time series for the conventional observing system, including maximum-likelihood estimates of background and observation errors, as well as global bias estimates. Starting with the joint PDF of innovations and analysis increments at observation locations we propose a technique for diagnosing bias among the observing systems, and document how these contextual biases have evolved during the satellite era covered by MERRA.

da Silva, Arlindo↗
DOE OSTI2023

A step towards the final frontier: Lessons learned from acceptance testing of the first HPE/Cray EX 3000 system at ORNL

Summary In this article, we summarize the deployment of the Air Force Weather (AFW) HPC11 system at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) including the process followed to successfully complete acceptance testing of the system. HPC11 is the first HPE/Cray EX 3000 system that has been successfully released to its user community in a federal facility. HPC11 consists of two identical 800‐node supercomputers, Fawbush and Miller, with access to two independent and identical lustre parallel file systems. HPC11 is equipped with Slingshot 10 interconnect technology and relies on the HPE Performance Cluster Manager software for system configuration. ORNL has a clearly defined acceptance testing process used to ensure that every new system deployed can provide the necessary capabilities to support user workloads. We worked closely with HPE and AFW to develop a set of tests that used the United Kingdom's Meteorological Office's Unified Model and 4‐dimensional variational data assimilation. We also included benchmarks and applications from the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility portfolio to fully exercise the HPE/Cray programming environment and evaluate the functionality and performance of the system. Acceptance testing of HPC11 required parallel execution of each element on Fawbush and Miller. In addition, careful coordination was needed to ensure successful acceptance of the newly deployed lustre file systems alongside the compute resources. In this work, we present test results from specific system components and provide an overview of the issues identified, challenges encountered, and the lessons learned along the way.

Melesse Vergara, Verónica G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Representations of Precipitation Diurnal Cycle in the Amazon as Simulated by Observationally Constrained Cloud‐System Resolving and Global Climate Models

Abstract The ability of an observationally‐constrained cloud‐system resolving model (Weather Research and Forecasting; WRF, 4‐km grid spacing) and a global climate model (Energy Exascale Earth System Model; E3SM, 1‐degree grid spacing) to represent the precipitation diurnal cycle over the Amazon basin during the 2014 wet season is assessed. The WRF model coupled with a 3‐D variational data assimilation scheme reproduces the spatial variability of the precipitation diurnal cycle over the basin and the lifecycle of westward propagating MCSs initiated by the coastal sea‐breeze front. In contrast, a single morning peak in rainfall is produced by E3SM for simulations despite the nudging of large‐scale winds toward global reanalysis, indicating precipitation in E3SM is largely controlled by local convection associated with diurnal heating. The role of propagating MCS on the environment are discussed by using a multivariate perturbation analysis. We also find that the advection of moisture perturbations from ocean to inland regions have a higher correlation with the occurrence of MCSs in the Amazon than the intensity of colder air intrusion associated with sea breezes along the coast. Moreover, the presence of large cold pools over the central Amazon basin are responsible for the maintenance of propagating deep convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

On the dual advantage of placing observations through forward sensitivity analysis

The four-dimensional variational data assimilation methodology for assimilating noisy observations into a deterministic model has been the workhorse in forecasting centres for over three decades. While this method provides a computationally efficient framework for dynamic data assimilation, it is largely silent on the important question concerning the minimum number and placement of observations. To answer this question, we demonstrate the dual advantage of placing the observations where the square of the sensitivity of the model solution with respect to the unknown control variables, called forward sensitivities, attains its maximum. By following this approach, we can force the observability Gramian to be of full rank, which in turn guarantees efficient recovery of the optimal values of the control variables, which is the first of the two advantages of this strategy. We further show that the proposed strategy of placing observations has another inherent optimality: the square of the sensitivity of the optimal estimates of the control with respect to the observations (used to obtain these estimates) attains its minimum value, a second advantage that is a direct consequence of the above strategy for placing observations. Our analytical framework and numerical experiments on linear and nonlinear systems confirm the effectiveness of our proposed strategy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗