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DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Dioxide Removal Measurement, Reporting, and Verification Simulation toolkit (CDR MRVSim) v0.1

CDR MRVSim is a statistical software toolkit for techno-economic analysis of measurement, reporting, and verification of multiple carbon dioxide removal technologies. The current version applies Monte Carlo simulation to existing datasets estimate the cost and uncertainty of measuring the soil organic carbon (SOC) content of agricultural land, accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty, using data from field measurements. We are planning to incorporate enhanced rock weathering and other technologies into the software. The current model leverages existing data to characterize underlying variability in soil organic carbon and related parameters, including bulk density, in an agricultural field attempting to increase its SOC. We then simulate baseline and post-intervention "measurement campaigns" in which some number of SOC and bulk density measurements are conducted using a selected technology. This enables estimates of the cost and accuracy of measuring changes in SOC in the simulated field. The primary advantages over similar software are: 1) ability to quantify tradeoffs between cost and uncertainty in MRV across a range of possible MRV approaches 2) focus on guiding development of novel sensors by determining desirable sets of characteristics

Sherwin, Evan [Lawrence Berkeley National Laborato↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizeable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of Value at Risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and to assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. The paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verification of the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. The results of this paper present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying Investment Risk: Analysis of the Purchase Decision of a Nuclear Power Plant (Presentation)

Cost overruns are an ill-fated part of the deployment history of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in the United States, and yet studies increasingly show the important role nuclear technologies must play in decarbonizing the U.S. economy. Paradoxically, then, a key piece of a coherent decarbonization strategy depends on attracting investor action to a purchase where historical cost overruns have been sizable. To address this challenge, this study aims to develop a financial model that quantifies the risk of cost overruns in the decision-making process for purchasing advanced reactor concepts. Using the concept of value at risk (VaR), the model is built to evaluate financial risk nuclear construction with the aim to identify risk mitigation strategies. The objective is to identify strategies to mitigate cost-risk challenges and assess the potential reduction in investor risk exposure. This paper presents the initial development and preliminary verification of the financial risk analysis model. The development of this model involved a comprehensive approach to estimating financial risk over the operating life of NPP that stems from construction uncertainties. By utilizing net present value (NPV) with discounted cash flows, the model captures the complex interconnections of project costs, construction timelines, revenue, and uncertainties. Verifying the model involved testing historical data from previous reactor construction projects against the construction project of Vogtle 3 and 4. This paper’s results present the comparison of the preconstruction cost overrun prediction with the current cost estimates from a nearly complete Vogtle 3 and 4.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Summary of the 5th IAEA technical meeting on fusion data processing, validation and analysis (FDPVA)

The purpose of the 5th International Atomic Energy Agency technical meeting on fusion data processing, validation and analysis (FDPVA) (Ghent University, Ghent, Belgium, 12–15 June 2023) was to provide a platform during which a set of topics relevant to FDPVA were discussed with the view of meeting the needs of next step fusion devices such as ITER. The validation and analysis of experimental data obtained from diagnostics used to characterize fusion plasmas are crucial for a knowledge-based understanding of the physical processes governing the dynamics of these plasmas. This paper presents the recent progress and achievements in the domain of plasma diagnostics data analysis and synthetic diagnostics reported at the meeting, including concept description of new devices; fusion databases; integrated data analysis; inverse problems; uncertainty propagation, verification and validation; probabilistic methods and machine learning. The relevant results underline trends observed in the current major fusion confinement devices.

fusion databases↗

DOE OSTI2024

Replication Package for "Union-Find and Usability: A Case Study and Analysis of Rust Formal Verifier

This replication package is a case study on automated deductive verification for Rust for practical programs. It is a companion artifact to a corresponding usability study on verification titled "Union-Find and Usability: A Case Study and Analysis of Rust Formal Verifiers". It seeks to answer the question "Can Rust developers today use Rust verifiers to verify their code?". To answer this question, the study contrasts the verification experience of two mature Rust verifiers, Creusot and Prusti, by using the tools to develop a verified implementation of union-find in Rust. The union-find implementation is based on real-world code as used in the popular egg E-graph library. The artifact consists of two different verified libraries, one using Creusot and one using Prusti. The libraries have similar Rust interfaces and high-level proofs but differ in their details: Creusot and Prusti have different annotation languages and support different proof styles. Each implementation can be verified with its respective tool and compiles as a traditional Rust development.

Sarracino, John↗

DOE OSTI2025

New developments and verification of fusion blanket simulation capabilities in the MOOSE framework

Multiphysics modeling capabilities have a crucial role to play in the accelerated deployment of fusion energy. To that end, we developed new multiphysics fusion blanket simulation capabilities in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE). Firstly, we expanded on the existing capabilities of the previously published work, by coupling 3D tritium transport modeling capabilities using the Tritium Migration Analysis Program, version 8 (TMAP8) to an existing tool including thermal hydraulics, fully three-dimensional (3D) heat transfer, and loosely coupled neutronics analysis. Secondly, we performed a thorough verification of the new capabilities and increased testing code coverage to meet MOOSE’s software quality standards. The MOOSE framework follows a strict software quality assurance plan to be Nuclear Quality Assurance, Level 1 compliant. The new multiphysics fusion blanket simulation capabilities are now held to the same standard. Thirdly, to demonstrate MOOSE’s new fusion blanket modeling capabilities, we performed a fully integrated, multiphysics simulation of a 3D solid ceramic breeder blanket design. This proof-of-concept simulation provides the temperature and tritium distribution across the blanket. In conclusion, the combined efforts towards software quality and the development of multiphysics coupling capabilities provide an effective and reliable framework for modeling solid ceramic fusion blankets using MOOSE.

modeling and simulation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Eucalyptus – An Analysis Suite for Fault Trees with Uncertainty Quantification

Eucalyptus is a novel code developed at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to incorporate uncertainty quantification into Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). This tool addresses the challenge of imperfect knowledge in “grey-box” systems by allowing analysts to incorporate and propagate uncertainty from component-level assessments to system-level effects. Eucalyptus facilitates a consistent evaluation of the impact of subject matter expert judgment and knowledge gaps on overall system response by Monte Carlo generation of possible system fault trees, sampling probabilities of the existence of subsystems and components. Here, the code supports the specification of fault trees through text and allows export to various formats, including auto-generated images, easing analysis and reducing errors. It has undergone extensive verification testing, demonstrating its reliability and readiness for deployment, and leverages on-node parallelism for rapid analysis. Example analyses are shown that include the identification of system failure paths and quantification of the value of further information about system components.

Fault Tree Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

Finite element procedure for thermomechanical and structural integrity analysis of beam intercepting devices subjected to free electron laser

High-energy particles, including photons (x-ray, γ-ray, bremsstrahlung), electrons, and protons, possess the capability to penetrate materials and deposit energy within them. The degree of absorption depends on both the energy and type of particles, as well as the properties of the materials with which they interact. This energy deposition can manifest either at the material's surface or throughout its volume, potentially resulting in various failure modes. The primary aim of this paper is to establish a structured analysis methodology for evaluating the structural integrity of beam-intercepting devices when subjected to high-energy particles. Here, the paper also reviews some of the underlying physics, pertinent to the scope of the thermomechanical analysis, potential failure modes, and introduces verification and validation methodologies. Engineers and researchers can utilize the guidelines presented in this paper to effectively plan the development of beam intercepting devices, thereby ensuring their reliability and performance in the presence of high-energy particle exposure.

Finite element analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adopting Code Verification Methodology Based on Model Form

Code verification is an essential part of credibility analysis for computational models. It assesses whether the mathematical model is implemented correctly into the code and whether the numerical methods behave consistently, and is done before solution verification and validation. Robust guidance for code verification exists in the literature. However, there is no known, concise guide for selecting the approach based on the model form that also presents an overview of the common elements. This document was written to address this gap as an accessible reference for beginning a code-verification effort.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adapting Code Verification Methodology to Model Form

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applied radiation tags for warhead dismantlement transparency

Here, this study explores the feasibility of applying radiation tags as a Chain of Custody tool to confirm the dismantlement of individual warheads by investigating time dependent emissions from special nuclear material. Precedents of photon and neutron sources that have been used to irradiate warhead components are presented. Measurements of irradiated Highly Enriched Uranium (HEU) are used to benchmark simulations with the CINDER90 library for MCNP. Delayed gamma emissions are simulated as a function of time since irradiation of moderated HEU and Weapons Grade Plutonium with photon and neutron sources. Models of commercial 9 MV and 15 MV linacs were found to induce ~10 9 fissions/g and ~10 11 fissions/g, respectively, creating 3 to 4 orders of magnitude more delayed gammas than neutron sources, modeled at 10 10 n/s. However, a DT neutron source was found to induce sufficient fissions, ~10 7 fissions/g, to create quantifiable signatures relative to intrinsic emissions. Applied radiation tagging is determined to be technically feasible, but its operational context and practical implementation requires significant development.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Digital Twin Framework for Liquid-cooled Supercomputers as Demonstrated at Exascale

We present ExaDigiT, an open-source framework for developing comprehensive digital twins of liquid-cooled supercomputers. It integrates three main modules: (1) a resource allocator and power simulator, (2) a transient thermo-fluidic cooling model, and (3) an augmented reality model of the supercomputer and central energy plant. The framework enables the study of "what-if" scenarios, system optimizations, and virtual prototyping of future systems. Using Frontier as a case study, we demonstrate the framework's capabilities by replaying six months of system telemetry for systematic verification and validation. Such a comprehensive analysis of a liquid-cooled exascale supercomputer is the first of its kind. ExaDigiT elucidates complex transient cooling system dynamics, runs synthetic or real workloads, and predicts energy losses due to rectification and voltage conversion. Throughout our paper, we present lessons learned to benefit HPC practitioners developing similar digital twins. We envision the digital twin will be a key enabler for sustainable, energy-efficient supercomputing.

Brewer, Wes↗

DOE OSTI2024

Black Box Equations of State: Creating Semi-analytic Solutions to the Noh Problem and Verifying Equation of State Interfaces

The objective of this report is threefold. First, it details a method for deriving a semi-analytic solution to the Noh Problem when using a “black-box” equation of state. Such capability allows us to perform verification on complicated, more realistic equations of state. Examples include Steinberg equations of state for materials and tabulated equations of state. The second objective is to apply the methodology to verify the singularity-eos equation of state library. We do so by solving the Rankine-Hugoinot jump conditions for the Noh Problem, ensuring singularity derives the correct solution and comparing the error to an exact implementation of the equation of state. The third objective is to perform verification of the xRAGE Eulerian hydrodynamics code when interfaced with singularity. We provide the theory, analysis, documentation for a python implementation of the proposed solver, and verification results.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

A deep learning-guided automated workflow in LipidOz for detailed characterization of fungal fatty acid unsaturation by ozonolysis

Understanding fungal lipid biology and metabolism is critical for antifungal target discovery as lipids play central roles in cellular processes. Nuances in lipid structural differences can significantly impact their functions, making it necessary to characterize lipids in detail to enable and understanding of their roles in these complex systems. In particular, lipid double bond (DB) locations are an important component of lipid structure that can only be determined using a few specialized analytical techniques. Ozone-induced dissociation mass spectrometry (OzID-MS) is one such technique that uses ozone to break lipid DBs, producing pairs of characteristic fragments that allow the determination of DB positions. In this work we apply OzID-MS and LipidOz software to analyze the complex lipids of Saccharomyces cerevisiae yeast strains transfected with different fatty acid desaturases from Histoplasma capsulatum to determine the specific unsaturated lipids produce. The automated data analysis in LipidOz made the determination of DB positions from this large dataset more practical, but manual verification for all targets was still time-consuming. The DL model reduces manual involvement in data analysis, but since it was trained using mammalian lipid extracts, the prediction accuracy on yeast-derived data was reduced. We addressed both shortcomings by retraining the DL model to act as a pre-filter to prioritize targets for automated analysis, providing confident manually verified results but requiring less computational time and manual effort. Our workflow resulted in the determination of novel DB positions and enzymatic specificity.

mass spectrometry, deep learning, Lipidomics, doub↗

DOE OSTI2025

Analysis of the impact of parallel magnetic fluctuations on linear gyrokinetic stability in NSTX-U and verification of gyro-fluid models

In this work, we use the CGYRO gyrokinetic code to analyze two L- and one H-mode discharges from the National Spherical Torus Experiment (NSTX) and NSTX-Upgrade (NSTX-U) selected due to their different mix of ion-scale driftwaves, ion temperature gradient (ITG) mode and trapped electron mode (TEM), and electromagnetic instabilities, kinetic ballooning mode (KBM), and micro-tearing mode (MTM) in the plasma core. It is found that the effect of parallel magnetic fluctuations is strongly destabilizing to the unstable KBMs compared to calculations with only perpendicular magnetic fluctuations. Two discharges have a mix of ITG/TEM and MTMs that are predicted to be dominant instability across the plasma radius. The parallel magnetic fluctuations are found to have little effect on the MTM stability but are destabilizing to ITG/TEM modes. To test the validity of the gyro-fluid linear stability codes TGLF and GFS at low aspect ratio, a database of linear growth rates has been created using the CGYRO gyrokinetic code. The database is comprised of various parameter scans around a standardized set of NSTX-U core parameters. It contains a group of electrostatic cases and an electromagnetic group that includes the effects of perpendicular and parallel magnetic fluctuations. Comparing the results from the GFS and TGLF models, we find that GFS exhibits the best agreement with the database of CGYRO linear growth rates. Comparing the model results for the electromagnetic scans shows that GFS captures the effects of parallel magnetic fluctuations accurately, while the TGLF model does not, as it lacks sufficient perpendicular energy resolution.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ as an improved oxygen storage material for chemical looping air separation: a computational and experimental study

Chemical looping air separation (CLAS) is a promising technology to generate oxygen-rich gas streams to enable efficient carbon dioxide capture during fossil fuel combustion or gasification. CLAS relies on the capture and release of oxygen from the atmosphere using the redox properties of an oxygen-selective solid oxide carrier. This study investigates the redox characteristics of Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ (0.0 ≤ x ≤ 0.417, 0.0 ≤ δ ≤ 0.5) using a combination of density functional theory (DFT) calculations and experimental verification using X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, and oxygen-temperature-programmed desorption. The DFT computed energies of the Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ perovskites reveal a composition-dependent transition from hexagonal to cubic phases as the Sr-concentration or oxygen vacancy concentration increases. Oxygen vacancy formation energies of the cubic perovskites are found to be lower than those of their hexagonal counterparts. A low oxygen diffusion barrier of ∼1 eV combined with the thermodynamic preference of Ba 1−x Sr x FeO 3−δ compositions that form in a cubic phase suggests them as promising candidates for oxygen storage applications. The experimental results corroborate this finding by identifying Ba 0.75 Sr 0.25 FeO 3−δ in the cubic phase as an optimal composition offering low-temperature oxygen storage capacities comparable to that of the state-of-the-art Sr 0.75 Ca 0.25 FeO 3−δ perovskite oxygen storage material at 325 °C and 350 °C.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimizing Geospatial Assessments for Nuclear Safeguards Applications with Large Language Models

A multidisciplinary team at Argonne National Laboratory evaluated the ability of large language models (LLMs) to identify geographic locations from open-source text and assessed post-processing measures to strengthen the reliability of those extractions in support of international nuclear safeguards. The study focused on addressing challenges such as toponym ambiguity, imprecise descriptions, and misinformation, which often undermine the accuracy of LLM-derived geospatial assessments. By integrating authoritative geospatial datasets, employing rigorous validation techniques, and leveraging human-in-the-loop processes, the project aimed to enhance the precision, transparency, and reproducibility of geospatial localization workflows. The findings demonstrate that while LLMs exhibit significant potential for accelerating geospatial analysis, their outputs require systematic grounding and verification to ensure reliability in high-stakes applications. This work contributes to the broader field of geospatial intelligence and supports strategic objectives of international organizations such as the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

ECAR-8055 Rev 0 Verification and Validation of Star-CCM+ for Computational Fluid Dynamics Analyses for the MARVEL Microreactor

The objective of this Engineering Calculations and Analysis Report (ECAR) is to provide documentation and highlight relevant information regarding the verification and validation (V&V) of the commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code STAR-CCM+ for the thermal and fluids analyses performed for the MARVEL microreactor.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗