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Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s

We live in an extraordinary period of discovery in astronomy and astrophysics. Six Nobel Prizes have been awarded over the past decade alone for discoveries based on astronomical data (dark energy, gravitational waves, neutrino oscillations, the discovery of exoplanets, cosmology, and supermassive black holes). Many of the ambitious scientific visions of the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons (Astro2010)1 decadal survey are being fulfilled, but momentum has only grown. We stand on the threshold of new endeavors that will transform not only our understanding of the universe and the processes and physical paradigms that govern it but also humanity’s place in it. This report of the Committee for a Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics 2020 (Astro2020) proposes a broad, integrated plan for space- and ground-based astronomy and astrophysics for the decade 2023–2032.2 It also lays the foundations for further advances in the following decade. This is the seventh in a sequence of decadal survey studies in this field from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. This survey examines the program of record, providing advice on the major projects from prior surveys that are yet to be completed. It also lays out priorities for future investments driven by scientific opportunities. The recommendations in this report advance foundational activities that support the people who drive innovation and discovery, and that promote the technologies and tools needed to carry out the science. The report also recommends sustaining activities on a broad range of cost and time scales, as well as activities that enable future visionary projects by maturing them scientifically and technically. Last, the recommendations set in motion the construction of frontier facilities that will change the view and understanding of the cosmos. The survey is bounded by plausible budget scenarios based on briefings from the sponsoring agencies— the Department of Energy (DOE), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and the National Science Foundation (NSF). Within these bounds, the survey aims high, reflecting this time of great scientific promise and progress, with opportunities to pursue some of the most compelling scientific quests of our times.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exobiology and Future Mars Missions

Scientific questions associated with exobiology on Mars were considered and how these questions should be addressed on future Mars missions was determined. The mission that provided a focus for discussions was the Mars Rover/Sample Return Mission.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

Planetary protection issues in advance of human exploration of Mars

The major planetary quarantine issues associated with human exploration of Mars, which is viewed as being more likely to harbor indigenous life than is the moon, are discussed. Special attention is given to the environmental impact of human missions to Mars due to contamination and mechanical disturbances of the local environment, the contamination issues associated with the return of humans, and the planetary quarantine strategy for a human base. It is emphasized that, in addition to the question of indigenous life, there may be some concern of returning to earth the earth microorganisms that have spent some time in the Martian environment. It is suggested that, due to the fact that a robot system can be subjected to more stringent controls and protective treatments than a mission involving humans, a robotic sample return mission can help to eliminate many planetary-quarantine concerns about returning samples.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

Motion sickness severity and physiological correlates during repeated exposures to a rotating optokinetic drum

Fifty-two subjects were exposed to a rotating optokinetic drum. Ten of these subjects who became motion sick during the first session completed two additional sessions. Subjects' symptoms of motion sickness, perception of self-motion, electrogastrograms (EGGs), heart rate, mean successive differences of R-R intervals (RRI), and skin conductance were recorded for each session. The results from the first session indicated that the development of motion sickness was accompanied by increased EGG 4-9 cpm activity (gastric tachyarrhythmia), decreased mean succesive differences of RRI, increased skin conductance levels, and increased self-motion perception. The results from the subjects who had three repeated sessions showed that 4-9 cpm EGG activity, skin conductance levels, perception of self-motion, and symptoms of motion sickness all increased significantly during the drum rotation period of the first session, but increased significantly less during the following sessions. Mean successive differences of RRI decreased significantly during the drum rotation period for the first session, but decreased significantly less during the following sessions. Results show that the development of motion sickness is accompanied by an increase in gastric tachyarrhythmia, and an increase in sympathetic activity and a decrease in parasympathetic activity, and that adaptation to motion sickness is accompanied by the recovery of autonomic nervous system balance.

Hu, Senqi↗

Duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars

The duration of ice-covered lakes after the initial freezing of the early Mars is presently estimated via a climate model whose critical parameter is the existence of peak seasonal temperatures above freezing, and in which the variability of insolation is included. Under conditions in which meltwater was supplied by an ice source, it is found that water habitats could have been maintained under relatively thin ice sheets for as many as 700 million years after the onset of below-freezing global temperatures. The duration of such habitats on the early Mars therefore exceeds the upper limit of the time envisioned for the emergence of aquatic life on earth.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

A comparison between computer-controlled and set work rate exercise based on target heart rate

Two methods are compared for observing the heart rate (HR), metabolic equivalents, and time in target HR zone (defined as the target HR + or - 5 bpm) during 20 min of exercise at a prescribed intensity of the maximum working capacity. In one method, called set-work rate exercise, the information from a graded exercise test is used to select a target HR and to calculate a corresponding constant work rate that should induce the desired HR. In the other method, the work rate is controlled by a computer algorithm to achieve and maintain a prescribed target HR. It is shown that computer-controlled exercise is an effective alternative to the traditional set work rate exercise, particularly when tight control of cardiovascular responses is necessary.

Pratt, Wanda M.↗

Liquid water habitats on early Mars

Although the Viking results may indicate that Mars has no life today, the possibility exists that Mars may hold the best record of the events that led to the origin of life. There is direct geomorphological evidence that in the past Mars had large amounts of liquid water on its surface. Atmospheric models would suggest that this early period of hydrological activity was due to the presence of a thick atmosphere and the resulting warmer temperatures. From a biological perspective the existence of liquid water by itself motivates the question of the origin of life on Mars. From studies of the Earth's earliest biosphere, we know that by 3.5 Gyr ago life had originated on Earth and reached a fair degree of biological sophistication. Surface activity and erosion on Earth make it difficult to trace the history of life before the 3.5 Gyr timeframe. If Mars did maintain a clement environment for longer than it took for life to originate on Earth, then the question of the origin of life on Mars follows naturally. Based upon simple models of the evolution of the Martian climate, we divide the history of liquid water habitats on the Martian surface into four epochs based upon the atmospheric temperature and pressure.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

History of water on Mars - A biological perspective

A general scenario is developed for the history of liquid water on the surface of Mars, according to which the history of water on Mars can be divided into four epochs based on the fundamental temperature and pressure characteristics. In Epoch I, the mean annual temperature is assumed to have been above freezing and the pressure to have been above 1 atm; liquid water was widespread and life could have arisen and become abundant. In Epoch II, the mean annual temperature fell below freezing, but peak temperatures were above freezing; In Epoch II ice-covered lakes could have provided a habitat for life. In Epoch III, both the mean and the peak temperatures were below freezing, and only transient liquid water would be possible; under these conditions, microbial ecosystems living in endolithic rock 'greenhouses' could have continued to survive. Finally, in Epoch IV, the pressure dropped to near the triple point pressure of water; at this stage, life on the surface of Mars would have become extinct.

Mckay, Christopher P.↗

Total quality management: It works for aerospace information services

Today we are in the midst of information and 'total quality' revolutions. At the NASA STI Program's Center for AeroSpace Information (CASI), we are focused on using continuous improvements techniques to enrich today's services and products and to ensure that tomorrow's technology supports the TQM-based improvement of future STI program products and services. The Continuous Improvements Program at CASI is the foundation for Total Quality Management in products and services. The focus is customer-driven; its goal, to identify processes and procedures that can be improved and new technologies that can be integrated with the processes to gain efficiencies, provide effectiveness, and promote customer satisfaction. This Program seeks to establish quality through an iterative defect prevention approach that is based on the incorporation of standards and measurements into the processing cycle. Four projects are described that utilize cross-functional, problem-solving teams for identifying requirements and defining tasks and task standards, management participation, attention to critical processes, and measurable long-term goals. The implementation of these projects provides the customer with measurably improved access to information that is provided through several channels: the NASA STI Database, document requests for microfiche and hardcopy, and the Centralized Help Desk.

Erwin, James↗

Total quality management - It works for aerospace information services

Today we are in the midst of information and 'total quality' revolutions. At the NASA STI Program's Center for AeroSpace Information (CASI), we are focused on using continuous improvements techniques to enrich today's services and products and to ensure that tomorrow's technology supports the TQM-based improvement of future STI program products and services. The Continuous Improvements Program at CASI is the foundation for Total Quality Management in products and services. The focus is customer-driven; its goal, to identify processes and procedures that can be improved and new technologies that can be integrated with the processes to gain efficiencies, provide effectiveness, and promote customer satisfaction. This Program seeks to establish quality through an iterative defect prevention approach that is based on the incorporation of standards and measurements into the processing cycle.

Erwin, James↗

A model for the evolution of CO2 on Mars

We have constructed a model that predicts the evolution of CO2 on Mars from the end of the heavy bombardment period to the present. The model draws on published estimates of the main processes believed to affect the fate of CO2 during this period: chemical weathering, regolith uptake, polar cap formation, and atmospheric escape. Except for escape, the rate at which these processes act is controlled by surface temperatures which we calculate using a modified version of the Gierasch and Toon energy balance model. The modifications account for the change in solar luminosity with time, the greenhouse effect, and a polar and equatorial energy budget. Using published estimates for the main parameters, we find no evolutionary scenario in which CO2 is capable of producing a warm (global mean temperatures greater than 250 K) and wet (surface pressures greater than 30 mbar) early climate, and then evolves to present conditions with approximately 7 mbar in the atmosphere, less than 300 mbar in the regolith, and less than 5 mbar in the caps. Such scenarios would only exist if the early sun were brighter than standard solar models suggest, if greenhouse gases other than CO2 were present in the early atmosphere, or if the polar albedo were significantly lower than 0.75. However, these scenarios generally require the storage of large amounts of CO2 (greater than 1 bar) in the carbonate reservoir. If the warm and wet early Mars constraint is relaxed, then we find best overall agreement with present day reservoirs for initial CO2 inventories of 0.5-1.0 bar. We also find that the polar caps can have a profound effect on how the system evolves. If the initial amount of CO2 is less than some critical value, then there is not enough heating of the poles to prevent permanent caps from forming. Once formed, these caps control how the system evolves, because they set the surface pressure and, hence, the thermal environment. If the initial amount of CO2 is greater than this critical value, then caps do not form initially, but can form later on, when weathering and escape lower the surface pressure to a point at which polar heating is no longer sufficient to prevent cap formation and the collapse of the climate system. Our modeling suggests this critical initial amount of CO2 is between 1 and 2 bar, but its true value will depend on all factors affecting the polar heat budget.

Haberle, Robert M.↗

The circum-Chryse region as a possible example of a hydrologic cycle on Mars: Geologic observations and theoretical evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progresssive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of these two hypotheses formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

Liquid Water on Early Mars

We have used a simple climate model to determine the duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars following up on the previous work of McKay and Davis. We used the weathering model of Pollack et al. to compute the pressure and temperature evolution of the atmosphere. We included the variability of the solar luminosity. Recent results which have considered the influence of CO2 condensation suggest that Mars could not have been kept warm (above 0 C) with only a dense CO2 atmosphere. New stellar evolution theories have suggested a more massive early sun to explain the lithium depletion in the sun and predict a warmer climate for early Mars. We have therefore modified the model of McKay and Davis to include the effects of CO2 condensation and the effect of a more massive early sun. Here we present the results of these additional effects on the duration of liquid water habitats on early Mars. We find that the increased luminosity suggested for the early sun when mass loss is taken into account can provide a climate on early Mars that results in fluvial features existing over 500 million years.

Davis, Wanda L.↗

Comparison of Gait During Treadmill Exercise While Supine in Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP), Supine with Bungee Resistance and Upright in Normal Gravity

The purpose of this study is to compare footward forces, gait kinematics, and muscle activation patterns (EMG) generated during supine treadmill exercise against LBNP with the same parameters during supine bungee resistance exercise and upright treadmill exercise. We hypothesize that the three conditions will be similar. These results will help validate treadmill exercise during LBNP as a viable technique to simulate gravity during space flight. We are evaluating LBNP as a means to load the musculoskeletal and cardiovascular systems without gravity. Such loading should help prevent physiologic deconditioning during space flight. The best ground-based simulation of LBNP treadmill exercise in microgravity is supine LBNP treadmill exercise on Earth because the supine footward force vector is neither directed nor supplemented by Earth's gravity.

Boda, Wanda↗

The circum-Chryse region as a possible example of a hydrologic cycle on Mars: Geologic observations and theoretical evaluation

The transection and superposition relationships among channels, chaos, surface materials units, and other features in the circum-Chryse region of Mars were used to evaluate relative age relationships and evolution of flood events. Channels and chaos in contact (with one another) were treated as single discrete flood-carved systems. Some outflow channel systems form networks and are inferred to have been created by multiple flood events. Within some outflow channel networks, several separate individual channel systems can be traced to a specific chaos which acted as flood-source area to that specific flood channel. Individual flood-carved systems were related to widespread materials units or other surface features that served as stratigraphic horizons. Chryse outflow channels are inferred to have formed over most of the perceivable history of Mars. Outflow channels are inferred to become younger with increasing proximity to the Chryse basin. In addition, outflow channels closer to the basin show a greater diversity in age. The relationship of subsequent outflow channel sources to the sources of earlier floods is inferred to disfavor episodic flooding due to the progressive tapping of a juvenile near-surface water supply. Instead, we propose the circum-Chryse region as a candidate site of past hydrological recycling. The discharge rates necessary to carve the circum-Chryse outflow channels would have inevitably formed temporary standing bodies of H2O on the Martian surface where the flood-waters stagnated and pooled (the Chryse basin is topographically enclosed). These observations and inferences have led us to formulate and evaluate two hypotheses: (1) large amounts of the sublimated H2O off the Chryse basin flood lakes precipitated (snowed) onto the flood-source highlands and this H2O was incorporated into the near surface, recharging the H2O sources, making possible subsequent deluges; and (2) ponded flood-water in Chryse basin drained back down an anti basinward dipping subsurface layer accessed along the southern edge of the lake, recharging the flood-source aquifers. H2O not redeposited in the flood-source region was largely lost to the hydrologic cycle. This loss progressively lowered the vitality of the cycle, probably by now killing it. Our numerical evaluations indicate that of the two hypotheses we formulated, the groundwater seep cycle seems by far the more viable. Optimally, approx. 3/4 of the original mass of an ice-covered cylindrical lake (albedo 0.5, 1 km deep, 100-km radius, draining along its rim for one quarter of its circumference into substrata with a permeability of 3000 darcies) can be modeled to have moved underground (on timescales of the order of 10(exp 3) years) before the competing mechanisms of sublimation and freeze down choked off further water removal. Once underground, this water can travel distances equal to the separation between Chryse basin and flood-source sites in geologically short (approx. 10(exp 6) year-scale) times. Conversely, we calculate that optimally only approx. 40% of the H2O carried from Chryse can condense at the highlands, and most of the precipitate would either collect at the base of the highlands/lowlands scarp or sublimate at rates greater than it would accumulate over the flood-source sites. Further observations from forthcoming missions may permit the determination of which mechanisms may have operated to recycle the Chryse flood-waters.

Moore, Jeffrey M.↗

Degradation of Hubble Space Telescope Metallized Teflon(trademark) FEP Thermal Control Materials

The mechanical and optical properties of the metallized Teflon Fluorinated Ethylene Propylene (FEP) thermal control materials on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) have degraded over the seven years the telescope has been in orbit. Astronaut observations and photographic documentation from the Second Servicing Mission revealed severe cracks of the multi-layer insulation (MLI) blanket outer layer in many locations around the telescope, particularly on solar facing surfaces. Two samples, the outer Teflon FEP MLI layer and radiator surfaces, were characterized post- mission through exhaustive mechanical, thermal, chemical, and optical testing. The observed damage to the thermal control materials, the sample retrieval and handling, and the significant changes to the radiator surfaces of HST will be discussed. Each of these issues is addressed with respect to current and future mission requirements.

Hansen, Patricia A.↗

Tailoring Thin Film-Lacquer Coatings for Space Applications

Thin film coatings have the capability of obtaining a wide range of thermal radiative properties, but the development of thin film coatings can sometimes be difficult and costly when trying to achieve highly specular surfaces. Given any space mission's then-nal control requirements, there is often a need for a variation of solar absorptance (alpha(sub s)), emittance (epsilon) and/or highly specular surfaces. The utilization of thin film coatings is one process of choice for meeting challenging thermal control requirements because of its ability to provide a wide variety of alpha(sub s)/epsilon ratios. Thin film coatings' radiative properties can be tailored to meet specific thermal control requirements through the use of different metals and the variation of dielectric layer thickness. Surface coatings can be spectrally selective to enhance radiative coupling and decoupling. The application of lacquer to a surface can also provide suitable specularity for thin film application without the cost and difficulty associated with polishing.

Peters, Wanda C.↗

Comparison of Gait During Treadmill Exercise While Supine in Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP), Supine with Bungee Resistance and Upright in Normal Gravity

The purpose of this study is to compare footward forces, gait kinematics, and muscle activation patterns (EMG) generated during supine treadmill exercise against LBNP with the same parameters during supine bungee resistance exercise and upright treadmill exercise. We hypothesize that the three conditions will be similar. These results will help validate treadmill exercise during LBNP as a viable technique to simulate gravity during space flight. We are evaluating LBNP as a means to load the musculoskeletal and cardiovascular systems without gravity. Such loading should help prevent physiologic deconditioning during space flight. The best ground-based simulation of LBNP treadmill exercise in microgravity is supine LBNP treadmill exercise on Earth because the supine footward force vector is neither directed nor supplemented by Earth's gravity. Previous results from HR-95 ("Dynamics of footward force and leg intramuscular pressure during exercise against supine LBNP and upright standing in normal gravity") indicate that supine plantar-/dorsiflexion exercise in LBNP at 100 mm Hg produces similar ground reaction forces, musculoskeletal stress, and VO2 to those during upright exercise against Earth's gravity. However, elevations of leg volume and heart rate indicate that cardiovascular stress during 100 mm Hg LBNP exercise exceeds that during 1 g exercise. Therefore, the need arose to reduce the cardiovascular stress of LBNP, while maintaining LBNP-induced reaction forces. To this end, we determined that mild plantar-/dorsiflexion exercise during LBNP significantly improves tolerance to LBNP via musculovenous pumping and sympathoexcitation; more intense exercise such as walking and running may further improve LBNP tolerance. In addition, two methodological advances have permited us to simulate upright 1 g exercise better with supine LBNP exercise. First, a newly-designed waist seal allows decreased levels of LBNP (50-60 mm Hg) to produce a footward force equaling one body weight

Boda, Wanda↗