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At least 37 records · Page 2

Wind Forecasting Improvement Project In Complex Terrain Near the Columbia River Gorge

In 2014 a multi-institution team led by Vaisala, Inc. was selected by the Department of Energy (DOE) to partner with multiple DOE and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) laboratories on a project designed to improve the quality of wind power forecasts in areas of complex terrain. This was the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) funded by DOE and it extended from late 2014 through the middle of 2018. It encompassed an 18-month observational field campaign, numerical weather prediction (NWP) model development, extensive analysis of data and NWP output, and the creation of decision support tool algorithms to convey forecast information to end users in the wind industry. WFIP2 focused on improvements to the representation of near-surface and boundary-layer physics in NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model. Improvements to HRRR, which is run operationally over the continental United States, benefit the wind industry in multiple ways. Forecasts from the operational HRRR are used directly by wind power forecast vendors and the operators of wind plants. In addition, because HRRR is built using the widely-used Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, improvements to its parameterizations become available to commercial and research institutions using WRF for a myriad of purposes. The geographic area studied by WFIP2 was a region of the Columbia River basin located to the east of the Cascade Mountains between Oregon and Washington. Home to over 6 GW of installed capacity for wind energy production, this area also hosts a variety of atmospheric phenomena either unique to or augmented by complex topography. This makes it an attractive test-bed for the analysis of wind forecast in complex terrain, though results found are should be applicable in any area of topographic complexity. WFIP2 succeeded as a collaborative effort, and while this report focuses on the activities of the team led by Vaisala, the work described here is part of a larger whole. The Vaisala team accomplished a number of specific tasks as described in this report, while also contributing to this larger effort.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

A Hybrid Bulk Algorithm to Predict Turbulent Fluxes over Dry and Wet Bare Soils

Measurements made in the Columbia River basin (Oregon) in an area of irregular terrain during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) field campaign are used to develop an optimized hybrid bulk algorithm to predict the surface turbulent fluxes from readily measured or modeled quantities over dry and wet bare or lightly vegetated soil surfaces. The hybrid (synthetic) algorithm combines (i) an aerodynamic method for turbulent flow, which is based on the transfer coefficients (drag coefficient and Stanton number), roughness lengths, and Monin–Obukhov similarity; and (ii) a modified Priestley–Taylor (P-T) algorithm with physically based ecophysiological constraints, which is essentially based on the surface energy budget (SEB) equation. Soil heat flux in the latter case was estimated from measurements of soil temperature and soil moisture. In the framework of the hybrid algorithm, bulk estimates of the momentum flux and the sensible heat flux are derived from a traditional aerodynamic approach, whereas the latent heat flux (or moisture flux) is evaluated from a modified P-T model. Direct measurements of the surface fluxes (turbulent and radiative) and other ancillary atmospheric/soil parameters made during WFIP2 for different soil conditions (dry and wet) are used to optimize and tune the hybrid bulk algorithm. The bulk flux estimates are validated against the measured eddy-covariance fluxes. We also discuss the SEB closure over dry and wet surfaces at various time scales based on the modeled and measured fluxes. Although this bulk flux algorithm is optimized for the data collected during the WFIP2, a hybrid approach can be used for similar flux-tower sites and field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Winds of Change: Assessing Wind Energy Efficiency in Complex Terrain

In 2015, the Department of Energy (DOE) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initiated a four-year study, the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which aims to improve the accuracy of meteorological models that forecast wind speed in complex terrain for applications in wind energy (Wilczak et al.2019). As a part of WFIP2, a dataset was collected in the Columbian River and Basin regions of Oregon and Washington which led to significant wind forecast model improvements (Kenyon et al.2018). Similar to the observations performed in Oregon and Washington, Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) systems were deployed at three observation points at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Site 300 Experimental Test Site as part of WFIP2. Site 300, located in the rolling hills approximately ten kilometers from the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area, represents a second complex terrain location for validating and evaluating the model improvements made using the original Columbian River dataset. The three LiDARsystems continuously collected wind speed and direction data at heights ranging from 10 meters to 150 meters. The data were used to better understand how wind flow is modified over hills and valleys in the Altamont Pass Wind Resource Area and to determine the optimal hub height for new turbine installations in the region. We observed five popular turbine models that are installed in the Altamont Wind Resource Area Using the collected data and comparisons of existing turbine models in the area, the most efficient turbine model for the Altamont Wind ResourceArea based on power output was determined to be the Mitsubishi 1.0MW. Future work related to this research includes further comparing turbine models based on factors including overall cost and effects on wildlife as well as determining optimal spacing between turbine units.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Comparison of Observations and Predictions of Daytime Planetary-Boundary-Layer Heights and Surface Meteorological Variables in the Columbia River Gorge and Basin During the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project

The second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is an 18-month field campaign in the Pacific Northwest U.S.A., whose goal is to improve the accuracy of numerical-weather-prediction forecasts in complex terrain. The WFIP2 campaign involved the deployment of a large suite of in situ and remote sensing instrumentation, including eight 915-MHz wind-profiling radars, and surface meteorological stations. The evolution and annual variability of the daytime convective planetary-boundary-layer (PBL) height is investigated using the wind-profiling radars. Three models with different horizontal grid spacing are evaluated: the Rapid Refresh, the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh, and its nested version. The results are used to assess errors in the prediction of PBL height within the experimental and control versions of the models, with the experimental versions including changes and additions to the model parametrizations developed during the field campaign, and the control version using the parametrizations present in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Prediction operational version of the models at the start of the project. Results show that the high-resolution models outperform the low-resolution versions, the experimental versions perform better compared with the control versions, model PBL height estimations are more accurate on cloud-free days, and model estimates of the PBL height growth rate are more accurate than model estimates of the rate of decay. Finally, using surface sensors, we assess surface meteorological variables, finding improved surface irradiance and, to a lesser extent, improved 2-m temperature in the experimental version of the model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification and Characterization of Persistent Cold Pool Events from Temperature and Wind Profilers in the Columbia River Basin

Cold pool events occur when deep layers of stable, cold air remain trapped in a valley or basin for multiple days, without mixing out from daytime heating. With large impacts on air quality, freezing events, and es-pecially on wind energy production, they are often poorly forecast by modern mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Understanding the characteristics of cold pools is, therefore, important to provide more accurate forecasts. This study analyzes cold pool characteristics with data collected during the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), which took place in the Columbia River basin and Gorge of Oregon and Washington from fall 2015 until spring 2017. A subset of the instrumentation included three microwave radiometer pro?lers, six radar wind pro?lers with radio acoustic sounding systems, and seven sodars, which together provided seven sites with collocated vertical pro?les of temperature, humidity, wind speed, and wind direction. Using these collocated observations, we developed a set of criteria to determine if a cold pool was present based on stability, wind speed, direction, and temporal continuity, and then developed an automated algorithm based on these criteria to identify all cold pool events over the 18 months of the ?eld project. Characteristics of these events are described, including statistics of the wind speed distributions and pro?les, stability conditions, cold pool depths, and descent rates of the cold pool top. The goal of this study is a better understanding of these characteristics and their processes to ultimately lead to improved physical parameterizations in NWP models, and consequently improve forecasts of cold pool events in the study region as well at other locations that experiences similar events.

McCaffrey, Katherine L.↗

Characterizing NWP Model Errors Using Doppler-Lidar Measurements of Recurrent Regional Diurnal Flows: Marine-Air Intrusions into the Columbia-River Basin

Ground-based Doppler-lidar instrumentation provides atmospheric wind data at dramatically improved accuracies and spatial/temporal resolutions. These capabilities have provided new insights into atmospheric flow phenomena, but they also should have a strong role in NWP model improvement. Insight into the nature of model errors can be gained by studying recurrent atmospheric flows, here a regional summertime diurnal sea breeze and subsequent marine-air intrusion into the arid interior of Oregon-Washington, where these winds are an important windenergy resource. These marine intrusions were sampled by three scanning Doppler lidars in the Columbia-River Basin as part of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), using data from summer 2016. Lidar time-height cross sections of wind speed identified eight days when the diurnal-flow cycle, (peak wind speeds at midnight, afternoon minima) was obvious and strong. Eight-day composite time-height cross sections of lidar wind speeds are used to validate those generated by the operational NCEP-HRRR model. HRRR simulated the diurnal wind cycle, but produced errors in the timing of onset and significant errors due to a premature nighttime demise of the intrusion flow, producing low-bias errors of 6 m s-1 . Day-to-day and in the composite, whenever a marine intrusion occurred, HRRR made these same errors. The errors occurred under a range of gradient wind conditions indicating that they resulted from the misrepresentation of physical processes within a limited region around the measurement locations. Because of their generation within a limited geographical area, field-measurement programs can be designed to find and address the sources of these NWP errors.

Banta, Robert M.↗

Quantifying the Impacts of Land Surface Modeling on Hub-Height Wind Speed under Different Soil Conditions

We investigate the impact of three land surface models (LSMs) on hub-height wind speed under three different soil regimes (dry, wet, and frozen) to understand and improve the physics of wind energy forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A six-day representative period is selected for each soil condition. The simulated wind speed, surface energy budget and soil properties are compared with the observations collected from the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). For the selected cases, our simulation results suggest that, the impact of LSMs on hub-height wind speed are sensitive to the soil states but not so much to the choice of LSM. The simulated hub-height wind speed is in much better agreement with the observations for the dry soil case than the wet and frozen soil cases. Over the dry soil, there is a strong physical connection between the land surface and hub-height wind speed through near-surface turbulent mixing. Over the wet soil, the simulated hub-height wind speed is less impacted by land surface due to weaker surface fluxes and more dominated by large-scale synoptic disturbances. Over the frozen soil, the land surface model seems to have limited impact on hub-height wind speed variability due to the decoupling of the land surface with the overlying atmosphere. Two main sources of modeling uncertainties are proposed. The first are the insufficient model physics representing the surface energy budget, especially the ground heat flux, and the second are the inaccurate initial soil states such as soil temperature and soil moisture.

Xia, Geng↗

Lidar - ND Halo Scanning Doppler, Boardman - Processed Data

The University of Notre Dame (ND) scanning LiDAR dataset used for the WFIP2 Campaign is provided. The LiDAR is a Halo Photonics Stream Line Scanning Doppler LiDAR. **It is highly recommended to discuss any planned use of these data with University of Notre Dame scientists**. For more information refer to the attached "WFIP2 Project (lidar.z07)" Readme file.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Lidar - ND Halo Scanning Doppler, Boardman - Derived Data

The University of Notre Dame (ND) scanning LiDAR dataset used for the WFIP2 Campaign is provided. The LiDAR is a Halo Photonics Stream Line Scanning Doppler LiDAR. **It is highly recommended to discuss any planned use of these data with University of Notre Dame scientists**. For more information refer to the attached "WFIP2 Project (lidar.z07)" Readme file.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Lidar - ND Halo Scanning Doppler, Boardman - Reviewed Data

The University of Notre Dame (ND) scanning LiDAR dataset used for the WFIP2 Campaign is provided. The LiDAR is a Halo Photonics Stream Line Scanning Doppler LiDAR. **It is highly recommended to discuss any planned use of these data with University of Notre Dame scientists**. For more information refer to Section 4.c) in the updated version of the "WFIP2 Project (lidar.z07)" Readme file, where the lidar.z07.b0 dataset is fully explained.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Model: Year-Long Reforecast, Forecast 02, Domain 01

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_esrl.graphics.01 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_wfip2.graphics.02 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_esrl.icbc.01 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_wfip2.icbc.02 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

wfip2.model/realtime.rap_esrl.icbc.01 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Model: Year-Long Reforecast, Forecast, Domain 02

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗