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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

What Does Global Land Climate Look Like at 2°C Warming?

Constraining an increase in global mean temperature below 2°C compared to pre-industrial levels is critical to limiting dangerous and cascading impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Understanding future climatic changes and their spatial heterogeneity at 2°C warming is thus important for policy makers to prepare actionable adaptation and mitigation plans by identifying where and to what extent lives and livelihoods will be impacted. This study uses the recently released NASA Earth eXchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) CMIP6 data to provide a broad overview of projected changes in six key climate variables and two climate impact indicators at a time when warming exceeds 2°C. Analysis of global mean temperature changes indicates the 2040s as the decade when most CMIP6 models reach 2°C warming with respect to a pre-industrial period (1850–1900). During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8°C, +22.4 mm/year, −0.73%, −2.23 , +15.9 W/m 2 , and −0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2°C goal is achieved. Our results highlight the urgent need for further studies focused on identifying key hotspots and advancing region-specific actionable adaptation and mitigation plans.

GDDP↗

Prebiotic Chemistry and Atmospheric Warming of Early Earth by an Active Young Sun

Nitrogen is a critical ingredient of complex biological molecules. Molecular nitrogen, however, which was outgassed Into the Earth's early atmosphere, is relatively chemically inert and nitrogen fixation into more chemically reactive compounds requires high temperatures. Possible mechanisms of nitrogen fixation include lightning, atmospheric shock heating by meteorites, and solar ultraviolet radiation. Here we show that nitrogen fixation in the early terrestrial atmosphere can be explained by frequent and powerful coronal mass ejection events from the young Sun -- so-called superflares. Using magnetohydrodynamic simulations constrained by Kepler Space Telescope observations, we find that successive superflare ejections produce shocks that accelerate energetic particles, which would have compressed the early Earth's magnetosphere. The resulting extended polar cap openings provide pathways for energetic particles to penetrate into the atmosphere and, according to our atmospheric chemistry simulations, initiate reactions converting molecular nitrogen, carbon dioxide and methane to the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide as well as hydrogen cyanide, an essential compound for life. Furthermore, the destruction of N2, C02 and CH, suggests that these greenhouse gases cannot explain the stability of liquid water on the early Earth. Instead, we propose that the efficient formation of nitrous oxide could explain a warm early Earth.

Airapetian, V. S.↗

Numerical simulation of sudden stratospheric warmings

The paper presents a mechanistic, quasi-geostrophic, semi-spectral model with a self-consistent calculation of the mean zonal flow fields used to numerically simulate sudden stratospheric warmings generated by a single zonal harmonic (m) planetary wave. The development of a warming depends on the strength of the westerly winds in the lower stratosphere, and the growth rate of a m=2 warming is accelerated during the westerly zonal wind phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation. An m=1 warming is characterized by oscillation of wave amplitude and mean flow from resonantly trapped, westward, propagating planetary waves moving in and out of phase with the tropospherically forced stationary planetary wave. An m=2 critical level develops in the equatorial region and advances poleward, and its warming is characterized by a sudden intensification after an initially slow growth in contrast to slowly developing m=1 warmings.

Schoeberl, M. R.↗

Non-thermoregulatory modulation of sweating in humans

Sweating in humans is critical for appropriate thermoregulation during exercise and/or exposure to warm environmental temperatures. In addition to thermal controllers of sweating, a number of non-thermal factors modulate the sweating response. This review summarizes the primary non-thermal neural modifiers of sweating in humans.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Highly Restricted Near‐Surface Permafrost Extent During the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period

To better understand how near‐surface permafrost may respond to future warming, we explore the equilibrium spatial extent of near‐surface permafrost during the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP), which shares characteristics of the projected future climate. Our simulations, which are constrained by proxy records, suggest highly restricted near‐surface permafrost extent during the mPWP, akin to future large-scale permafrost degradation projections of our model for the end of this century. Our study indicates dramatically smaller-than-present near‐surface permafrost extent in the geological past under climate conditions analogous to those expected if global warming continues unabated. This absence in permafrost will come with critical implications for the global carbon cycle, human livelihoods and infrastructures, and surface and subsurface hydrology.

near‐surface permafrost↗

Thermocapillary Flow and Aggregation of Bubbles on a Solid Wall

During the electrolytic evolution of oxygen bubbles forming on a vertically oriented transparent tin oxide electrode, bubbles were found to be mutually attractive. The mechanism of the aggregation had never been explained satisfactorily until Guelcher et al. attributed it to thermocapillary flow. The gradient of surface tension of the liquid at the bubble's surface, which was established because of reaction heat and ohmic heat loss at the electrode wall, drives flow of the liquid adjacent to each bubble; the bubble "pumps" fluid along its surface away from the wall. Fluid flows toward the bubble to conserve mass and entrains nearby bubbles in the flow pattern. The same logic would apply when two bubbles of equal size are adjacent to each other on a warm wall. Each bubble drives thermocapillary flow and hence entrains the other in its flow pattern, which drives the aggregation. Our objective here is to perform experiments where the temperature gradient at the wall is well known and controlled. The theory can be quantitatively tested by studying aggregation of bubble pairs of equal size, and by varying system parameters such as temperature gradient, bubble size and fluid viscosity. The results are then compared with the theory in a quantitatively rigorous manner. We demonstrate that the theory without adjustable parameters is capable of quantitatively modeling the rate of aggregation of two bubbles. The equations governing the thermocapillary flow around a single stationary bubble on a heated or cooled wall in a semi-infinite domain were solved. Both Reynolds number and Marangoni number were much less than unity. The critical result is that liquid in the vicinity of a warm wall flows toward a stationary collector bubble. Consequently the thermocapillary flow around the stationary bubble entrains another bubble toward itself. The bubbles undergo hindered translation parallel to the wall with velocity U while the fluid flow field is described with u. Two velocities were equated by using a wall hindrance parameter q: U = qu [1] which shows the velocity of bubble is proportional to the entraining velocity. The hindrance parameter q can experimentally be measured independently. q can also be calculated by solving the equations of motion for a bubble translating parallel to a solid wall. The experimental cell is cylindrical with an ID of 10 cm and consists of a 1 cm deep main cell filled with silicone oil and flanked by two thermal reservoirs. The upper thermal reservoir was heated and the lower thermal reservoir was cooled so that the bubbles aggregate. Two types of silicone oil (eta = 0.02 and 0.50 Pa s) were used. Two equal sized air bubbles were injected into the cell with a syringe. The center-to-center distance of bubbles was observed through a microscope. Bubble radius ranged from 0.40 mm to 0.65 mm and the temperature gradients along with the cell ranged from 1400 to 5000 K/m. The bubbles aggregated when heat flows from the wall to the fluid. The velocities of bubbles were in the range of 1 - 10 microns/s. The separation r decreased more quickly when the temperature gradient was higher, bubble size was larger, and the oil viscosity was lower. r decreased more rapidly as the bubbles approached each other. Dimensionless time was arbitrarily set to be zero when the dimensionless center-to-center distance between the bubbles was 4. All the bubble trajectories fall onto one line, especially in the range of dimensionless distance from 4 to 3. This means the relative movement of the bubble pair is proportional to the temperature gradient and bubble size and it is inversely proportional to the viscosity of the oil. This result strongly suggests that the thermocapillary flow-based aggregation mechanism is correct. A value of q can be estimated by fitting the scaled data to Eq. [1]. A best fit value of q was obtained as q = 0.26 with a standard deviation of 0.03. Independent experimental results for q for a 0.5 mm radius bubble, give values of q in the range 0.11 to 0.23. The value of q obtained from solving the equations of motion reveals q has values in the range 0.23 - 0.30. Since the full scale of possible values of q is zero to one, the maximum deviation of independently determined values of q from the best fit value was 15% of this full scale. Thus reasonable quantitative agreement between theory and experiment has been obtained.

Kasumi, Hiroki↗

K-shell Photoabsorption of Oxygen Ions

The high spectral resolutions of the Chandra and XMM-Newton X-ray observatories have unveiled the useful diagnostic possibilities of oxygen K absorption. To mention a few, strong O VII and O VIII edges are almost ubiquitous in the spectra of Seyfert 1 galaxies which have been used by Lee et al. (2001) to predict of a warm dust absorber along the line of sight; although this conclusion has been criticized in the light of a data reanalysis (SA0 et al. 2003), Steenbrugge et al. (2003) have detected inner-shell transitions of O III-O VI in the spectrum of NGC 5548 that point to a warm absorber that spans three orders of magnitude in ionization parameter. Moreover, Behar et al. (2003) have stressed that, in the case of both Seyfert 1 and Seyfert 2 galaxies, a broad range of oxygen charge states are usually observed along the line of sight that must be fitted simultaneously, and may imply strong density gradients of 2-4 orders of magnitude over short distances.

Garcia, J.↗

Land-Use Emissions Play a Critical Role in Land Based Mitigation for Paris Climate Targets

Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 degrees Centigrade by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 degrees Centigrade climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS.

Harper, Anna B.↗

Photoperiod Decelerates the Advance of Spring Phenology of Six Deciduous Tree Species under Climate Warming

Vegetation phenology in spring has substantially advanced under climate warming, consequently shifting the seasonality of ecosystem process and altering biosphere-atmosphere feedbacks. However, whether and to what extent photoperiod (i.e., daylength) affects the phenological advancement is unclear, leading to large uncertainties in projecting future phenological changes. Here we examined the photoperiod effect on spring phenology at a regional scale using in situ observation of six deciduous tree species from the Pan European Phenological Network during 1980-2016. We disentangled the photoperiod effect from the temperature effect (i.e., forcing and chilling) by utilizing the unique topography of the northern Alps of Europe (i.e., varying daylength but uniform temperature distribution across latitudes) and examining phenological changes across latitudes. We found prominent photoperiod-induced shifts in spring leaf-out across latitudes (up to 1.7 daysper latitudinal degree). Photoperiod regulates spring phenology by delaying early leaf-out and advancing late leaf-out caused by temperature variations. Based on these findings, we proposed two phenological models that consider the photoperiod effect through different mechanisms and compared them with a chilling model. We found that photoperiod regulation would slow down the advance in spring leaf-out under projected climate warming and thus mitigate the increasing frost risk in spring that deciduous forests will face in the future. Our findings identify photoperiod as a critical but understudied factor influencing spring phenology, suggesting that the responses of terrestrial ecosystem processes to climate warming are likely to be overestimated without adequately considering the photoperiod effect.

Lin Meng↗

Model Evaluation of Short-Lived Climate Forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: A Multi-Species, Multi-Model Study

While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008-2009 and 2014-2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, 03, BC, and SO(sup 2-)(sub 4)), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for C"4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models.

Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme↗

Light Absorption of Stratospheric Aerosols: Long-Term Trend and Contribution by Aircraft

Measurements of aerosol light-absorption coefficients are useful for studies of radiative transfer and heating rates. Ogren appears to have published the first light- absorption coefficients in the stratosphere in 1981, followed by Clarke in 1983 and Pueschel in 1992. Because most stratospheric soot appears to be due to aircraft operations, application of an aircraft soot aerosol emission index to projected fuel consumption suggests a threefold increase of soot loading and light absorption by 2025. Together, those four data sets indicate an increase in mid-visible light extinction at a rate of 6 % per year. This trend is similar to the increase per year of sulfuric acid aerosol and of commercial fleet size. The proportionality between stepped-up aircraft operations above the tropopause and increases in stratospheric soot and sulfuric acid aerosol implicate aircraft as a source of stratospheric pollution. Because the strongly light-absorbing soot and the predominantly light-scattering sulfuric acid aerosol increase at similar rates, however, the mid-visible stratospheric aerosol single scatter albedo is expected to remain constant and not approach a critical value of 0.98 at which stratospheric cooling could change to warming.

Pueschel , R. F.↗

Soot and Sulfuric Acid from Aircraft: Is There Enough to Cause Detrimental Environmental E-kCTSs?

Aerosol from aircraft can affect the environment in three ways: First, soot aerosol has been implicated to cause Icing-tern ozone depletion at mid-latitudes in the lower stratosphere at a rate of approx. 5% per decade. This effect is in addition and unrelated to the polar ozone holes which are strongly influenced by heterogeneous chemistry on polar stratospheric clouds. Second, the most obvious effect of jet aircraft is the formation of visible contrails in the upper troposphere. The Salt Lake City region experienced an 8% increase in cirrus cloud cover over a 15-year period which covariates with an increase in regional commercial air traffic. If soot particles act as freezing nuclei to cause contrail formation heterogeneously, they would be linked to a secondary effect to cloud modification that very likely is climatologically important. Third, a buildup of soot aerosol could reduce the single scatter albedo of stratospheric aerosol from 0.993+0.004 to 0.98, a critical value that has been postulated to separate stratospheric cooling from warming. Thus arises an important question: Do aircraft emit sufficient amounts of soot to have detrimental effects and warrant emission controls? During the 1996 SUCCESS field campaign, we sampled aerosols in the exhaust wake of a Boeing 757 aircraft and determined emission indices for sulfuric acid (EI(sub H2SO4) = 9.0E-2 and 5.0E-1 g/kg (sub FUEL) for 75 and 675 ppm fuel-sulfur, respectively) and soot aerosol (2.2E-3 less than EI(sub SOOT) = l.lE-2 g/kg (sub FUEL)). The soot particle analysis accounted for their fractal nature, determined electron-microscopically, which enhanced the surface area by a factor of 26 and the volume 11-fold over equivalent-volume spheres. The corresponding fuel-sulfur to H2SO4 conversion efficiency was 10% (for 675 ppmm fuel-S) and 37% (for 75 ppmm fuel-S). Applying the H2SO4 emission index to the 1990 fuel use by the worlds commercial fleets of 1.3E11 kg, a conversion efficiency of 30% of 500 ppmm fuel-S would have led to an annual contribution to the atmospheric sulfur budget by aircraft of 2.E7 kg H2SO4. This is about one part in 1.E4 of anthropogenic sulfate from other sources. The soot emission index given above yielded a 1990 injection of soot aerosol by aircraft of 1.E6 kg. Thus, soot amounts to only five percent of the aerosol generated by aircraft. Its reactivity with ozone would have to be 20 times that of sulfuric acid particles to make it chemically significant. Nevertheless, the findings, of stratospheric soot loadings commensurate with aircraft fuel consumption, based on the emission index given above and the assumption of stratospheric residence times of the order of one year implicate aircraft as stratospheric polluters. A trend similar to soot of H2SO4 aerosol loading could not be deciphered, neither from in situ measurements nor SAGE II satellite extinction, against the "noise" due to volcanic eruptions. Observation of soot particles at 20 km altitude which, if emitted by aircraft were generated at 10-12 km altitude, suggests a displacement of those particles against gravity. Because eddy mixing is virtually absent in the lower stratosphere and isentropic mixing explains lofting to only about 15 km, radiometric forces acting on morphologically and chemically asymmetric soot particles must be considered a possibility. The consequence could be an extended residence time of soot against that of sulfuric acid aerosol that would lower the single scatter albedo with time.

Pueschel, R. F.↗

Microwave sounding units and global warming

A recent work of Spencer and Christy (1990) on precise monitoring of global temperature trends from satellites is critically examined. It is tentatively concluded in the present comment that remote sensing using satellite microwave radiometers can in fact provide a means for the monitoring of troposphere-averaged air temperature. However, for this to be successful more than one decade of data will be required to overcome the apparent inherent variability of global average air temperature. It is argued that the data set reported by Spencer and Christy should be subjected to careful review before it is interpreted as evidence of the presence or absence of global warming. In a reply, Christy provides specific responses to the commenters' objections.

Gary, Bruce L.↗

Above-Cloud Aerosol Radiative Effects based on ORACLES 2016 and ORACLES 2017 Aircraft Experiments

Determining the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) of absorbing aerosols above clouds from satellite observations alone is a challenging task, in part because the radiative signal of the aerosol layer is not easily untangled from that of the clouds below. In this study, we use aircraft measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of CLouds above Aerosols and their intEractionS (ORACLES) project in the southeastern Atlantic to derive it with as few assumptions as possible. This is accomplished by using spectral irradiance measurements (Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer, SSFR) and aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals (Spectrometer for Sky-Scanning, Sun-Tracking Atmospheric Research, 4STAR) during vertical profiles (spirals) that minimize the albedo variability of the underlying cloud field – thus isolating aerosol radiative effects from those of the cloud field below. For two representative cases, we retrieve spectral aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) and the asymmetry parameter (g) from these profile measurements and calculate DARE given the albedo range measured by SSFR on horizontal legs above clouds. For mid-visible wavelengths, we find SSA values from 0.80 to 0.85 and a significant spectral dependence of g. As the cloud albedo increases, the aerosol increasingly warms the column. The transition from a cooling to a warming top-of-aerosol radiative effect occurs at an albedo value (critical albedo) just above 0.2 in the mid-visible wavelength range. In a companion paper, we use the techniques introduced here to generalize our findings to all 2016 and 2017 measurements and parameterize aerosol radiative effects.

Cloud aerosol↗

Analyzing Seasonal Forcing Mechanisms of the Martian Polar Warming with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

The meridional transport of heat, momentum, water, dust, trace species and gases is critical for the control of Mars’ climate. Though the nature and structure of the mean meridional circulation has been previously studied, questions remain regarding the seasonal forcing mechanisms, and the implications on the combined thermal and dynamical response for Mars’ climate. A useful diagnostic of the mean meridional circulation and transport in the middle atmosphere is polar warming.

Brecht, A. S.↗

Water Ice Cloud Feedbacks over the North Polar Residual Cap at Moderate Obliquity

Several global climate modeling studies have now shown that water ice clouds can warm the surface 10s of K at moderate obliquities [1,2,3]. Significant greenhouse warming occurs because the predicted clouds are optically thick, the cloud particles are large enough to efficiently interact with infrared radiation, and the clouds either form at or are transported to high altitudes where the atmosphere is cold. Radiativedynamic feedbacks play a critical role in producing the conditions needed for a strong cloud greenhouse. Two feedbacks have been identified: one involves atmospheric warming by clouds aloft at lower latitudes. These clouds are generally associated with the global Hadley circulation. The second feedback involves clouds that form over the North Polar Residual Cap (NPRC) during summer. These clouds are more closely associated with the regional polar circulation. We focus here on the second of these feedbacks with the goal of understanding the details of the interactions between sublimation, cloud formation and transport in the north polar region. We show that these feedbacks strongly control the wetness of the atmosphere and the strength of the cloud greenhouse at moderate obliquity.

Kahre, M. A.↗

Tropicalization of Temperate Ecosystems in North America: The Northward Range Expansion of Tropical Organisms in Response to Warming Winter Temperatures

Tropicalization is a term used to describe the transformation of temperate ecosystems by poleward-moving tropical organisms in response to warming temperatures. In North America, decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme winter cold events are expected to allow the poleward range expansion of many cold-sensitive tropical organisms, sometimes at the expense of temperate organisms. Although ecologists have long noted the critical ecological role of winter cold temperature extremes in tropical–temperate transition zones, the ecological effects of extreme cold events have been understudied, and the influence of warming winter temperatures has too often been left out of climate change vulnerability assessments. Here, we examine the influence of extreme cold events on the northward range limits of a diverse group of tropical organisms, including terrestrial plants, coastal wetland plants, coastal fishes, sea turtles, terrestrial reptiles, amphibians, manatees, and insects. For these organisms, extreme cold events can lead to major physiological damage or landscape-scale mass mortality. Conversely, the absence of extreme cold events can foster population growth, range expansion, and ecological regime shifts. We discuss the effects of warming winters on species and ecosystems in tropical–temperate transition zones. In the 21st century, climate change-induced decreases in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events are expected to facilitate the poleward range expansion of many tropical species. Our review highlights critical knowledge gaps for advancing understanding of the ecological implications of the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems in North America.

climate change↗

Projectile-target mixing in melted ejecta formed during a hypervelocity impact cratering event

Tektites contain little to no projectile contamination while, in contrast, some distal ejecta deposits can be relatively projectile-rich (e.g. the Cretaceous-Tertiary (K-T) boundary clay). This compositional difference motivated an experimental study of hypervelocity target-projectile mixing processes. We hope to scale up the results from these experiments and apply them to terrestrial impact structures like the Chicxulub Crater, Yucutan, Mexico, the leading contender as the site for the impact that caused the mass extinction that marks the K-T boundary. Shock decomposition of the approximately 500m thickness of anhydrite, or greater thickness of limestone, in the target rocks at Chicxulub may have been a critical mechanism for either global cooling via SO3, and subsequently H2SO4, formation, or possibly, global warming via increased CO2 formation. Understanding target-projectile mixing processes during hypervelocity impact may permit more accurate estimates of the amount of potentially toxic, target-derived material reaching stratospheric heights.

Evans, Noreen Joyce↗