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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Sound speed and Grüneisen parameter up to three terapascal in shock-compressed iron

This paper presents the first sound speed and Grüneisen parameter data for fluid iron compressed to 3 TPa (30 million atmospheres) and 20 g/cm 3 on the Hugoniot. Both the sound speed and Grüneisen parameter are derivatives of the equation of state (EOS), and thus tightly constrain the contours of the EOS surface. The sound speed data are systematically lower than expected from a simple extrapolation of previous data. The Grüneisen parameter shows a 30% drop at pressures and temperatures above the melt transition. Furthermore, while some models compare well with either the sound speed or Grüneisen parameter, none of today’s state-of-the-art models can explain both sets of data. Furthermore these new data will provide pivotal benchmarks for both future theoretical EOSs of warm dense iron and modeling planetary states and processes.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Benchmarking boron carbide equation of state using computation and experiment

Boron carbide ( B 4 C ) is of both fundamental scientific and practical interest due to its structural complexity and how it changes upon compression, as well as its many industrial uses and potential for use in inertial confinement fusion (ICF) and high-energy density physics experiments. Here, we report the results of a comprehensive computational study of the equation of state (EOS) of B 4 C in the liquid, warm dense matter, and plasma phases. Our calculations are cross-validated by comparisons with Hugoniot measurements up to 61 megabar from planar shock experiments performed at the National Ignition Facility (NIF). Our computational methods include path integral Monte Carlo, activity expansion, as well as all-electron Green's function Korringa-Kohn-Rostoker and molecular dynamics that are both based on density functional theory. We calculate the pressure-internal energy EOS of B 4 C over a broad range of temperatures ( ~ 6 × 10 3 – 5 × 10 8 K) and densities (0.025–50 g / cm 3 ). We assess that the largest discrepancies between theoretical predictions are ≲ 5 % near the compression maximum at 1– 2 × 10 6 K. This is the warm-dense state in which the K shell significantly ionizes and has posed grand challenges to theory and experiment. By comparing with different EOS models, we find a Purgatorio model (LEOS 2122) that agrees with our calculations. The maximum discrepancies in pressure between our first-principles predictions and LEOS 2122 are ~ 18 % and occur at temperatures between 6 × 10 3 – 2 × 10 5 K, which we believe originate from differences in the ion thermal term and the cold curve that are modeled in LEOS 2122 in comparison with our first-principles calculations. To account for potential differences in the ion thermal term, we have developed three new equation-of-state models that are consistent with theoretical calculations and experiment. We apply these new models to 1D hydrodynamic simulations of a polar direct-drive NIF implosion, demonstrating that these new models are now available for future ICF design studies.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Disentangling the mechanism of temperature and water vapor modulation on ozone under a warming climate

Temperature and water vapor have been considered as important factors affecting ozone concentrations, however, their synergistic effect on ozone, as well as its response to a warming climate remains unclear. Here, numerical experiments with different combinations of climate and emissions highlighted opposite changes of annual ozone over the contiguous U.S. under scenarios with high vs. low ozone precursor emissions in the future with warming. Comparing the occurrence of heat waves on higher vs. lower ozone days, we found significant suppression of the heat wave exacerbation of ozone by anthropogenic emissions reductions. Variations of ozone with temperature (T) and water vapor (Q) over the western U.S. and southeastern U.S. in the simulations are clearly revealed through the construction of an O 3 -T-Q diagram. Based on the diagram, we further identified a T-dominant regime at higher temperatures where ozone increases with temperature increase, and a Q-dominant regime at lower temperatures where ozone decreases with temperature increase due to the negative effect of water vapor. With larger anthropogenic emission reductions, ozone may increase at a lower rate with temperature in the T-dominant regime, or even decrease with temperature in the Q-dominant regime. Our results show that with large emission reductions, substantial ozone pollution due to warming and increasing heat waves may be counteracted by water vapor, partly turning the ‘climate penalty’ on ozone into ‘climate benefit’. Hence controlling anthropogenic emissions may be an increasingly important strategy in a warmer and wetter climate to improve air quality and public health.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Proper orthogonal decomposition based reduced-order modeling of flux-Limited gray thermal radiation

Here, in this work, a proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) based reduced-order model (ROM) is developed to solve gray, flux-limited thermal radiation diffusion. We focus on the variable opacity radiation penetration benchmark posed by Olson, Auer, and Hall. The T -3 relationship for opacity in conjunction with high-temperature radiation penetrating an initially cold material produces a strong thermal radiation shock. This class of problems is particularly challenging for standard POD-based reduced-order modeling due to the nonlinearities presented by 1) the T 4 source term, and 2) flux-limited diffusion operator. To address these challenges and develop a cost competitive ROM, we employ a “hyper-reduction” technique through discrete empirical interpolation (DEIM) and allow for adaptive reduced-order projections through principal interval decomposition (PID). Performance of the proposed methodology is quantified by comparing the cost savings and accuracy relative to a full-order computation. Reference solutions and snapshot data are obtained through a full-order calculation performed by the University of Chicago maintained astrophysics code, FLASH. For consistency and potential extensibility, the developed ROM is also implemented in FLASH. We find that in the initialization regime, where the thermal radiation wave is initially created by the warming of the material, this class of problems is highly reducible and suitable for POD-based ROMs. However, the strong convective nature of the wave propagation regime is less reducible and more challenging to create an efficient ROM.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Development of a new quantum trajectory molecular dynamics framework

An extension to the wave packet description of quantum plasmas is presented, where the wave packet can be elongated in arbitrary directions. A generalized Ewald summation is constructed for the wave packet models accounting for long-range Coulomb interactions and fermionic effects are approximated by purpose-built Pauli potentials, self-consistent with the wave packets used. We demonstrate its numerical implementation with good parallel support and close to linear scaling in particle number, used for comparisons with the more common wave packet employing isotropic states. Ground state and thermal properties are compared between the models with differences occurring primarily in the electronic subsystem. Especially, the electrical conductivity of dense hydrogen is investigated where a 15% increase in DC conductivity can be seen in our wave packet model compared with other models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stable Positron Acceleration in Thin, Warm, Hollow Plasma Channels

Hollow plasma channels are attractive for lepton acceleration for providing intrinsic emittance preservation regimes. However, beam breakup instabilities dominate the dynamics. Here, we show that thin, warm hollow channels can sustain large-amplitude plasma waves ready for high-quality positron acceleration. We verify that the combination of warm electrons and thin hollow channels enables positron focusing structures. Such focusing wakefields unlock beam breakup damping mechanisms. We demonstrate that such channels emerge self-consistently during the long-term plasma dynamics in the blowout's regime aftermath, allowing for experimental demonstration.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

The substantial role of May soil temperature over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China

The slowly varying soil temperature can exert local and nonlocal influences on regional climate system, and may thus provide a critical source of subseasonal-to-seasonal climate prediction. In this study, we identify that soil temperature in May over the key region of Central Asia (42 °N–50 °N, 62 °E–80 °E, KRCA) from Noah, Mosaic, CLM and ERA-interim datasets is closely linked to variations of the surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in summer (June-July-August), with correlation coefficients of regional average detrended time series ranging from 0.42 to 0.54, and all significant at the 99% confidence level for the period of 1979-2018. The possible physical mechanism behind the substantial downstream impacts of soil temperature over Central Asia are explored via diagnostical analysis combined with regional climate model experiments. Warmer soil temperature in May over the KRCA tends to cause positive anomalies of geopotential height in summer over Northeastern China through the Rossby wave propagation, and associated stronger subsidence warming, less cloud cover, more solar radiation reaching the surface, higher planetary boundary layer, and stronger thermal advection at 850 hPa, which provide favorable conditions for warmer surface air temperature particularly in the daytime as well as more hot days. Here this study further reveals that soil temperature over Central Asia in May makes important contribution to prediction of summer surface air temperature, daily maximum temperature and hot days over Northeastern China in terms of regional average time series and spatial patterns. Our findings highlight the previously-unknown substantial role of antecedent soil temperature condition over Central Asia for summer surface air temperature variation and prediction over Northeastern China.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experiments and Simulations of the Dusty Properties of Hypervelocity Impact Plasmas

Hypervelocity impacts, referring to impacts occurring at several times the speed of sound in the target, result in inertial stresses greatly exceeding the material strength and produce behavior that is not fully understood. These impact phenomena are seen in space through impacts of orbital debris and meteoroids on spacecraft and airless natural bodies but can also be produced in laboratory environments using light-gas guns and electrostatic dust accelerators. When a hypervelocity impact occurs, plasma is generated both from thermal ionization and from pressure ionization, producing a wide range of plasma densities depending on the impactor’s velocity. This plasma is initially formed in the warm dense matter (WDM) regime and governed by high energy density (HED) hydrodynamics before it rapidly expands and dissipates, spanning many orders of magnitude in density and length scale. The plasma can also contain a dust component, which is particularly relevant for the lower-velocity range of hypervelocity impacts with parameters that are particularly relevant to Tokamak plasmas. Therefore, the properties and dynamics of these plasmas cannot be fully characterized without considering dusty plasma effects, which are ubiquitous but poorly understood.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Transition Path Analysis Yields a Statistical Understanding of Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in an Idealized Model

Abstract Atmospheric regime transitions are highly impactful as drivers of extreme weather events, but pose two formidable modeling challenges: predicting the next event (weather forecasting) and characterizing the statistics of events of a given severity (the risk climatology). Each event has a different duration and spatial structure, making it hard to define an objective “average event.” We argue here that transition path theory (TPT), a stochastic process framework, is an appropriate tool for the task. We demonstrate TPT’s capacities on a wave–mean flow model of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) developed by Holton and Mass, which is idealized enough for transparent TPT analysis but complex enough to demonstrate computational scalability. Whereas a recent article (Finkel et al. 2021) studied near-term SSW predictability, the present article uses TPT to link predictability to long-term SSW frequency. This requires not only forecasting forward in time from an initial condition, but also backward in time to assess the probability of the initial conditions themselves. TPT enables one to condition the dynamics on the regime transition occurring, and thus visualize its physical drivers with a vector field called the reactive current . The reactive current shows that before an SSW, dissipation and stochastic forcing drive a slow decay of vortex strength at lower altitudes. The response of upper-level winds is late and sudden, occurring only after the transition is almost complete from a probabilistic point of view. This case study demonstrates that TPT quantities, visualized in a space of physically meaningful variables, can help one understand the dynamics of regime transitions.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Response of the Polar Vortex to Tropospheric Temperature Eddies in an Idealized General Circulation Model

Abstract A dry-core idealized general circulation model with a stratospheric polar vortex in the Northern Hemisphere is run with a combination of simplified topography and imposed tropospheric temperature perturbations, each located in the Northern Hemisphere with a zonal wavenumber of 1. The phase difference between the imposed temperature wave and the topography is varied to understand what effect this has on the occurrence of polar vortex displacements. Geometric moments are used to identify the centroid of the polar vortex for the purposes of classifying whether or not the polar vortex is displaced. Displacements of the polar vortex are a response to increased tropospheric wave activity. Compared to a model run with only topography, the likelihood of the polar vortex being displaced increases when the warm region is located west of the topography peak, and decreases when the cold region is west of the topography peak. This response from the polar vortex is due to the modulation of vertically propagating wave activity by the temperature forcing. When the southerly winds on the western side of the topographically forced anticyclone are collocated with warm- or cold-temperature forcing, the vertical wave activity flux in the troposphere becomes more positive or negative, respectively. This is in line with recent reanalysis studies that showed that anomalous warming west of the surface pressure high, in the climatological standing wave, precedes polar vortex disturbances.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Plasma production and ion heating systems for the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment

Plasma production and ion heating in the Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX), whose design is nearing completion, is accomplished using continuous wave RF power with average power density up to 1.6 MW/m2 at the plasma interface. Plasma is produced using helicon waves coupled through a single helical antenna at 13.56 MHz with power supplied by three 100 kW fixed-frequency RF generators feeding a power combiner network followed by the matching network and launcher. The helicon source can utilize various gasses including hydrogen, deuterium, and helium, with a magnetic field strength in the source region up to 0.2 T, and maximum device |B| of 2.5 T. Power is coupled to ions via ion cyclotron heating at the fundamental resonance using a pair of phased helical antennas operating in the frequency range 4-9 MHz, that launch waves towards the resonance from the antenna region where ω > ωci. ICH power is supplied by a single 500 kW tunable RF transmitter through a 90° power splitter and matching/decoupling network. In the case of both the helicon and ICH systems the antennas are located external to the vacuum, with power transferred through novel water-cooled coaxial vacuum windows consisting of fused quartz outer cylinders and silicon nitride inner cylinders with forced convection water cooling between them. The antenna enclosures are pressurized with dry air to 3 bar absolute for voltage standoff.Several 3-D COMSOL models have been created to simulate the two systems. A model of the helicon region utilizing a cold plasma dielectric tensor with accurate magnetic field and realistic plasma density profiles has been used to calculate the plasma loading/complex antenna input impedance at the launcher feed for various ne and |B| values, for the purpose of estimating power handling. It also incorporates the geometry of all launcher structures relevant to this determination. A still more detailed model of the launcher together with a lossy dielectric plasma surrogate has been used to determine RF electric field values and power losses in the device components.Similar models have been produced to predict the performance and power handling of the ICH launcher. For this device the impedance matrix of the two-element antenna array is calculated using a warm plasma model, necessary to properly determine the wave propagation and absorption.

Goulding, Richard↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prokaryotic responses to a warm temperature anomaly in northeast subarctic Pacific waters

Recent studies on marine heat waves describe water temperature anomalies causing changes in food web structure, bloom dynamics, biodiversity loss, and increased plant and animal mortality. However, little information is available on how water temperature anomalies impact prokaryotes (bacteria and archaea) inhabiting ocean waters. This is a nontrivial omission given their integral roles in driving major biogeochemical fluxes that influence ocean productivity and the climate system. Here we present a time-resolved study on the impact of a large-scale warm water surface anomaly in the northeast subarctic Pacific Ocean, colloquially known as the Blob, on prokaryotic community compositions. Multivariate statistical analyses identified significant depth- and season-dependent trends that were accentuated during the Blob. Moreover, network and indicator analyses identified shifts in specific prokaryotic assemblages from typically particle-associated before the Blob to taxa considered free-living and chemoautotrophic during the Blob, with potential implications for primary production and organic carbon conversion and export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ion cyclotron heating at high plasma density in Proto-MPEX

The physics of ion cyclotron heating (ICH) relevant to the steady-state linear machine MPEX (Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment) has been explored in its predecessor, short-pulse device: Proto-MPEX. MPEX will utilize fundamental ICH to increase heat flux at the target and produce ion temperatures and velocity distributions with improved fidelity to those found in a tokamak divertor region, in comparison to those produced by substrate biasing. In the experiments on Proto-MPEX described here, bulk ion temperatures up to ~15 eV have been achieved with 20 kW net ICH power at 6.5 MHz, using ICH heating of a deuterium plasma produced by a helicon plasma source. The heat flux at the target has been observed to increase throughout the plasma cross section, including in the core region. Core $T_i$ and target heat flux are observed to scale linearly with injected ICH power. Further, measurements of plasma loading and target heat flux as a function of the magnetic field strength at the antenna, together with modeling of the wave propagation from the antenna to the ion cyclotron resonance using the ANTENA and COMSOL codes with a warm plasma dielectric tensor, indicate that power is coupled to the core plasma via fast wave excitation of a kinetic Alfvén wave.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Assessing Impacts of Waves on Hub-Height Winds off the U.S. West Coast Using Lidar Buoys and Coupled Modeling Approaches

Given the importance of offshore wind energy development to the U.S. clean energy targets, it is vital to be able to characterize the wind resource in that environment accurately. Toward that end, two Bureau of Ocean Energy Management buoys equipped with Doppler lidar are being maintained by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory on behalf of the Department of Energy and deployed to regions of potential offshore wind development. In addition to standard meteorological and oceanographic measurements, the buoys document the wind profile between about 40 m and 250 m above the sea surface through Doppler lidar retrievals. After a multiyear deployment of two buoys along the U.S. East Coast, the buoys were redeployed to the U.S. West coast from 2020 – 2022 to locations near the Humboldt and Morro Bay lease areas. The buoys provide nearly continuous, multiyear datasets that can be used to evaluate predictions of hub-height (~100 m) wind speed for standard atmospheric models in the region. In the absence of measurements at the study site, offshore wind developers rely on model-based data to assess site conditions. Potential sources of model error in this environment include under-resolution or misrepresentation of coastal topographically forced flows, marine boundary layer dynamics and the evolution of their associated cloud and turbulence fields, the role of upwelling and other currents on surface heat fluxes into the boundary layer, and the impact of wave fields on surface momentum fluxes and thus the wind speed profile. In particular, most predictive models of wind speed do not predict wave fields at all, relying on parameterizations to represent their effects. In thus study, we focus on evaluating the role of wind / wave interactions on modeled hub-height wind speed and error by using the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere–Wave–Sediment–Transport Modeling System to capture two-way interactions between an atmospheric model (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)) and a wave model (WAVEWATCHIII (WW3)) and compare to both stand-alone WRF and one-way coupled WRF / WW3 configurations. Our approach is similar to that used in Gaudet et al. (2022) to evaluate wind / wave coupling over the U.S. East Coast, but applied to the very different environment of the U.S. West Coast. We show examples for two cases, a cold-season frontal case and a warm-season low-level jet case. We find that wind / wave coupling makes little impact on model error for these cases at the location of the lidar buoys, for which other misrepresentations of model physics seems to be responsible for model-observation discrepancies. However, domain-wide evaluations, which also make use of the National Buoy Data Center network, show that a two-way coupling approach is less prone to systematic errors in the hub-height wind field than the one-way coupled approach. WRF resolution of kilometer-scale or less is needed to properly capture the sharp wind speed gradients that can be found along the coastline, and WW3 simulations driven by the downscaled WRF produce better bulk and spectral wave fields when compared to observations. Implications of the results for wind resource characterization are then discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Extraordinary March 2022 East Antarctica “Heat” Wave. Part I: Observations and Meteorological Drivers

Abstract Between 15 and 19 March 2022, East Antarctica experienced an exceptional heat wave with widespread 30°–40°C temperature anomalies across the ice sheet. This record-shattering event saw numerous monthly temperature records being broken including a new all-time temperature record of −9.4°C on 18 March at Concordia Station despite March typically being a transition month to the Antarctic coreless winter. The driver for these temperature extremes was an intense atmospheric river advecting subtropical/midlatitude heat and moisture deep into the Antarctic interior. The scope of the temperature records spurred a large, diverse collaborative effort to study the heat wave’s meteorological drivers, impacts, and historical climate context. Here we focus on describing those temperature records along with the intricate meteorological drivers that led to the most intense atmospheric river observed over East Antarctica. These efforts describe the Rossby wave activity forced from intense tropical convection over the Indian Ocean. This led to an atmospheric river and warm conveyor belt intensification near the coastline, which reinforced atmospheric blocking deep into East Antarctica. The resulting moisture flux and upper-level warm-air advection eroded the typical surface temperature inversions over the ice sheet. At the peak of the heat wave, an area of 3.3 million km 2 in East Antarctica exceeded previous March monthly temperature records. Despite a temperature anomaly return time of about 100 years, a closer recurrence of such an event is possible under future climate projections. In Part II we describe the various impacts this extreme event had on the East Antarctic cryosphere. Significance Statement In March 2022, a heat wave and atmospheric river caused some of the highest temperature anomalies ever observed globally and captured the attention of the Antarctic science community. Using our diverse collective expertise, we explored the causes of the event and have placed it within a historical climate context. One key takeaway is that Antarctic climate extremes are highly sensitive to perturbations in the midlatitudes and subtropics. This heat wave redefined our expectations of the Antarctic climate. Despite the rare chance of occurrence based on past climate, a future temperature extreme event of similar magnitude is possible, especially given anthropogenic climate change.

Wille, Jonathan D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Simulation of East Asian Summer Monsoon in the High-resolution CESM1 and Its Causes

Based on the high- and low-resolution Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), and corresponding simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we compare the interannual variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The EASM interannual variability is characterized by the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) circulation and the dipole rainfall pattern with a negative southern lobe over the western North Pacific and a positive northern lobe along the Meiyu–Baiu region, which is better reproduced by the high-resolution models. Here, the reason for the improvement in the high-resolution models has been attributed to the better simulation of the warm temperature advection from the wind anomalies on the climatological temperature gradient. Positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean are the key to the improved wind anomalies featuring a WNPAC in the high-resolution models. The warm SST anomalies over the tropical Indian Ocean strengthen the WNPAC by triggering a Kelvin-wave response to the enhanced heat release induced by the increased precipitation. Based on the mixed-layer heat budget analysis, the warm SST anomalies over the western Indian Ocean in the high-resolution CESM1 are tied to the anomalous easterly wind along the equator, which reduces surface evaporation and upwelling. Therefore, the better simulations of air-sea feedback and the oceanic mesoscale eddy over the western Indian Ocean are the key for the improved simulation of the EASM interannual variations in the high-resolution CESM1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Oceanic fronts shape hemispheric contrasts in polar stratospheric extremes

Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) and Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) exhibit striking inter-hemispheric asymmetries: SSWs are frequent in the Arctic but rare in the Antarctic, while PSCs are more persistent in the Antarctic. Although land–sea thermal contrast and orography (LSCO) have been traditionally invoked to explain these asymmetries, here we show using semi-idealized model experiments that even though LSCO strongly impacts the mean state of SSWs and PSCs, it alone cannot fully account for the observed differences. Using model experiments, we reveal that midlatitude oceanic sea surface temperature (SST) fronts represent a crucial supporting additional driver of the hemispheric stratospheric differences. Like LSCO, SST fronts enhance stratospheric convergence of resolved waves, strengthening the Brewer–Dobson Circulation and inducing high-latitude adiabatic warming. This warming significantly enhances Arctic SSW frequency and strongly suppresses PSC formation. Sub-grid-scale non–resolved wave forcing modulates the stratospheric resolved waves effect. The oceanic impact is dominated by North Pacific SST fronts. Our results highlight the indispensable role of SST fronts in shaping Arctic–Antarctic asymmetries in stratospheric dynamics and associated extremes.

Omrani, Nour-Eddine [Univ. of Bergen (Norway)] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hierarchical Testing of a Hybrid Machine Learning‐Physics Global Atmosphere Model

Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated high skill and computational efficiency, often outperforming conventional physics-based models in weather and subseasonal predictions. While prior studies have assessed their fidelity in capturing synoptic-scale atmospheric dynamics, their performance across timescales and under out-of-distribution forcing, such as +3K or +4K uniform-warming forcings, and the sources of biases remain elusive, to establish the model's reliability for Earth science. Here, we design three sets of experiments targeting synoptic-scale phenomena, interannual variability, and out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings. We evaluate the Neural General Circulation Model (NeuralGCM), a hybrid model integrating a dynamical core with ML-based component, against observations and physics-based Earth system models (ESMs). At the synoptic scale, NeuralGCM captures the evolution and propagation of extratropical cyclones with performance comparable to ESMs. At the interannual scale, when forced by El Niño-Southern Oscillation sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, NeuralGCM successfully reproduces associated teleconnection patterns but exhibits deficiencies in capturing nonlinear response. Under out-of-distribution uniform-warming forcings, NeuralGCM simulates similar responses in global-average temperature and precipitation and reproduces large-scale tropospheric circulation features similar to those in ESMs. Notable weaknesses include overestimating the tracks and spatial extent of extratropical cyclones, biases in the teleconnected wave train triggered by tropical SST anomalies, and differences in upper-level warming and stratospheric circulation responses to SST warming compared to physics-based ESMs. The causes of these weaknesses were explored. Despite the noted weaknesses, NeuralGCM reproduces responses across experiments reasonably and performs comparably to ESMs. By integrating a dynamical core with ML, NeuralGCM shows potential for developing ML-based ESMs.

global warming↗