SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Warming Levels”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 37 records · Page 2

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Storylines for the 1997 New Year’s Flood: The role of watershed antecedent conditions and future warming in shaping discharge in the Truckee River watershed

The 1997 New Year’s flood was among the most devastating floods in the Truckee River watershed located in western Nevada. This event resulted from complex interactions of flood drivers, such as extreme precipitation, wet antecedent watershed conditions, warm temperatures and rapid snowmelt. We leveraged simulated forcings from the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) and a process-based hydrological model to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood for the Truckee River watershed across four climate warming levels ranging from the current temperatures to + 4° C. For each scenario, we conducted ensemble simulations with the same forcing but with 100 different seasonal watershed antecedent conditions, which were randomly sampled from long-term hydrological simulations. The results show that the 1997 New Year’s flood can be reproduced or exceeded consistently only when the antecedent watershed conditions are wet, specifically when streamflows are above the 75th percentile of the climatological value. There is negligible change in ensemble mean peakflows for Truckee River near Reno; however, there are increases of 18% and 14% under the warming levels of + 3° C and + 4° C, respectively. The increases in peakflows under future climate warming are attributed to wetter antecedent watershed conditions and enhanced snowmelt. Furthermore, the largest increases in peakflows occur at small, high-elevation headwater basins along the Sierra Nevada crest. This study highlights that changes in extreme flood events will result from the complex interplay of multiple flood drivers. It also demonstrates the potential of storyline approaches to analyze future realizations of these extreme events under different climate scenarios.

Climate change impact study↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Droughts are typically caused by below-normal precipitation and typically terminate in response to high precipitation. In many regions, soil moisture is projected to decrease in a warmer world. At the same time, changes in both mean and extreme precipitation are expected as the global mean temperature increases. How will these precipitation changes interact with soil moisture changes to affect drought onset and termination? In this study, we use climate model projections from Phase Six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to investigate how changes in mean precipitation affect soil moisture drought in the context of future warming in the Mediterranean and Western North America. We show that the same precipitation deficits at a global warming level of 2 degrees Celsius increase the likelihood of both moderate and severe drought compared to the pre-industrial baseline. Further, we evaluate the effectiveness of a given precipitation anomaly to terminate a soil moisture drought under different warming levels. These analyses offer a better understanding of the cascading impacts of, and relationships between, precipitation, precipitation extremes, and drought termination under warmer global temperatures.

Drought↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Beginning and Ending Droughts in a Warmer World

Drought↗

DOE OSTI2021

Are 100 Ensemble Members Enough to Capture the Remote Atmospheric Response to +2°C Arctic Sea Ice Loss?

This study presents results from the Polar Amplification Multimodel Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) single-year time-slice experiments that aim to isolate the atmospheric response to Arctic sea ice loss at global warming levels of +2°C. Using two general circulation models (GCMs), the ensemble size is increased up to 300 ensemble members, beyond the recommended 100 members. After partitioning the response in groups of 100 ensemble members, the reproducibility of the results is evaluated, with a focus on the response of the midlatitude jet streams in the North Atlantic and North Pacific. Both atmosphere-only and coupled ocean–atmosphere PAMIP experiments are analyzed. Substantial differences in the midlatitude response are found among the different experiment subsets, suggesting that 100-member ensembles are still significantly influenced by internal variability, which can mislead conclusions. Despite an overall stronger response, the coupled ocean–atmosphere runs exhibit greater spread due to additional ENSO-related internal variability when the ocean is interactive. The lack of consistency in the response is true for anomalies that are statistically significant according to Student’s t and false discovery rate tests. This is problematic for the multimodel assessment of the response, as some of the spread may be attributed to different model sensitivities whereas it is due to internal variability. Here, we propose a method to overcome this consistency issue that allows for more robust conclusions when only 100 ensemble members are used.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

Using Mylar-Insulated Cryopumping Panels to Improve Vacuum Level During Warm Temperature Testing at JSCs Large Thermal Vacuum Facilities

The Johnson Space Center’s Space Environment Simulation Lab (SESL) has both Chamber A, the world’s largest purpose-built thermal vacuum chamber capable of creating deep space conditions, and Chamber B, the largest human rated thermal vacuum chamber. A unique design feature of these chambers is the gaseous helium cryopumping panels within the liquid nitrogen shroud. This shroud is used to bring the chamber to cryogenic temperatures while the cryopumping panels trap gasses using their large surface area in order to create a high vacuum environment of 5*10^-6 Torr. In preparation for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) flight test, a series of functionals required the chamber to run at higher temperatures, and therefore did not need active cooling from the liquid nitrogen shroud. During testing, cryopumping panels were used to mitigate contamination during this main shroud warm-up. One of the cryopumping panels in Chamber A was covered with several layers of aluminized mylar in order to thermally protect the zone from the warmed shroud. This strategy was effective and became part of operations during JWST testing. Currently, Chamber B has requests for both commercial and NASA space suit tests at both high and low temperatures to accurately generate thermal models. High temperature tests would greatly benefit from simultaneous shroud warming and the high vacuum environment provided by the cryopumping panels. This paper will quantitatively define the thermal loads on the panels used in previous Chamber A warm up sequences. Additionally, this report will perform a thermal analysis to judge the feasibility of adding layers of aluminized mylar to the cryopumping panels of Chamber B.

Cryogenics↗

NASA NTRS2023

Using Mylar-Insulated Cryopumping Panels to Improve Vacuum Level During Warm Temperature Testing at JSC's Large Thermal Vacuum Facilities

Cryogenics↗

NASA NTRS2023

Using Mylar-Insulated Cryopumping Panels to Improve Vacuum Level During Warm Temperature Testing at JSC's Large Thermal Vacuum Facilities

Johnson Space Center’s Space Environment Simulation Lab (SESL) has both Chamber A, the world’s largest purpose-built thermal vacuum chamber capable of creating deep space conditions, and Chamber B, the largest human rated thermal vacuum chamber. A unique design feature of these chambers is the gaseous helium cryopumping panels within the liquid nitrogen shroud. This shroud is used to bring the chamber to cryogenic temperatures while the cryopumping panels trap gasses on its surface area to create a high vacuum environment of 5*10-6 Torr. In preparation for the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) flight test, a series of functionals required the chamber to run at higher temperatures, and therefore did not need active cooling from the liquid nitrogen shroud. During testing, cryopumping panels were used to mitigate contamination during this main shroud warm-up. One of the cryopumping panels in Chamber A was covered with several layers of aluminized mylar to thermally protect the zone from the warmed shroud. This strategy was effective and became part of operations during JWST testing. Currently, Chamber B has requests for both commercial and NASA space suit tests at both high and low temperatures to validate thermal models. High temperature tests could benefit from reduced heater demand with an insulated shroud while still sustaining the high vacuum environment provided by the cryopumping panels. This paper will quantitatively define the thermal loads on the panels used in previous Chamber A warm up sequences. Additionally, this report will perform thermal analyses to assess the feasibility of adding layers of aluminized mylar to the cryopumping panels of Chamber B.

Cryogenics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydrological projections over the Upper Indus Basin at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C temperature increase

We analyse an ensemble of statistically downscaled Global Climate Models (GCMs) to investigate future water availability in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan for the time horizons when the global and/or regional warming levels cross Paris Agreement (PA) targets. The GCMs data is obtained from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the five best performing GCMs, we note that global 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming thresholds are projected in 2026 and 2047 under RCP4.5 and 2022 and 3036 under RCP8.5 respectively while these thresholds are reached much earlier over Pakistan i.e. 2016 and 2030 under RCP4.5 and 2012 and 2025 under RCP8.5 respectively. Interestingly, the GCMs with the earliest emergence at the global scale are not necessarily the ones with the earliest emergence over Pakistan, highlighting spatial non-linearity in GCMs response. The emergence of 2.0 °C warming at global scale across 5 GCMs ranges from 2031 (CCSM4) to 2049 (NorESM) under RCP8.5. Precipitation generally exhibits a progressive increasing trend with stronger changes at higher warming or radiative forcing levels. Hydrological simulations representing the historical, 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global and region warming time horizons indicate a robust but seasonally varying increase in the inflows. The highest inflows in the baseline and future are witnessed in July. However, the highest future increase in inflows is projected in October under RCP4.5 (37.99% and 65.11% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C) and in April under RCP8.5 (37% and 62.05% at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C). These hydrological changes are driven by increases in the snow and glacial melt contribution, which are more pronounced at 2.0 °C warming level. These findings should help for effective water management in Pakistan over the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Experimental Warming Changes Phenology and Shortens Growing Season of the Dominant Invasive Plant Bromus tectorum (Cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum’s phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments’ legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

NASA NTRS2006

Vertical Moist Thermodynamic Structure and Spatial-Temporal Evolution of the MJO in AIRS Observations

The atmospheric moisture and temperature profiles from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS)/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit on the NASA Aqua mission, in combination with the precipitation from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), are employed to study the vertical moist thermodynamic structure and spatial-temporal evolution of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). The AIRS data indicate that, in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the temperature anomaly exhibits a trimodal vertical structure: a warm (cold) anomaly in the free troposphere (800-250 hPa) and a cold (warm) anomaly near the tropopause (above 250 hPa) and in the lower troposphere (below 800 hPa) associated with enhanced (suppressed) convection. The AIRS moisture anomaly also shows markedly different vertical structures as a function of longitude and the strength of convection anomaly. Most significantly, the AIRS data demonstrate that, over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, the enhanced (suppressed) convection is generally preceded in both time and space by a low-level warm and moist (cold and dry) anomaly and followed by a low-level cold and dry (warm and moist) anomaly. The MJO vertical moist thermodynamic structure from the AIRS data is in general agreement, particularly in the free troposphere, with previous studies based on global reanalysis and limited radiosonde data. However, major differences in the lower-troposphere moisture and temperature structure between the AIRS observations and the NCEP reanalysis are found over the Indian and Pacific Oceans, where there are very few conventional data to constrain the reanalysis. Specifically, the anomalous lower-troposphere temperature structure is much less well defined in NCEP than in AIRS for the western Pacific, and even has the opposite sign anomalies compared to AIRS relative to the wet/dry phase of the MJO in the Indian Ocean. Moreover, there are well-defined eastward-tilting variations of moisture with height in AIRS over the central and eastern Pacific that are less well defined, and in some cases absent, in NCEP. In addition, the correlation between MJO-related mid-tropospheric water vapor anomalies and TRMM precipitation anomalies is considerably more robust in AIRS than in NCEP, especially over the Indian Ocean. Overall, the AIRS results are quite consistent with those predicted by the frictional Kelvin-Rossby wave/conditional instability of the second kind (CISK) theory for the MJO.

troposhere↗

DOE OSTI2024

Changes in Four Decades of Near‐CONUS Tropical Cyclones in an Ensemble of 12 km Thermodynamic Global Warming Simulations

We evaluate tropical cyclones (TCs) in a set of thermodynamic global warming (TGW) simulations over the continental United States (CONUS). A 12 km simulation forced by ERA5 provides a 40‐year historical (1980–2019) control. Four complimentary future scenarios are generated using thermodynamic deltas applied to lateral boundary, interior, and surface forcing. We curate a data set of 4,498 6‐hourly TC snapshots in the control and find a corresponding “twin” in each counterfactual, permitting a paired comparison. Warming results in an increase in mean dynamical TC intensity and moisture‐related quantities, with the latter being more pronounced. TC inner cores contract slightly but outer storm size remains unchanged. The frequency with which TCs become more intense is only moderately consistent, with snapshots having increased hazards ranging from 50% to 80% depending on warming level. The fractions of TCs undergoing rapid intensification and weakening both increase across all warming simulations, suggesting elevated short‐term intensity variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

A storyline analysis of Hurricane Irma’s precipitation under various levels of climate warming

Abstract Understanding how extreme weather, such as tropical cyclones, will change with future climate warming is an interesting computational challenge. Here, the hindcast approach is used to create different storylines of a particular tropical cyclone, Hurricane Irma (2017). Using the community atmosphere model, we explore how Irma’s precipitation would change under various levels of climate warming. Analysis is focused on a 48 h period where the simulated hurricane tracks reasonably represent Irma’s observed track. Under future scenarios of 2 K, 3 K, and 4 K global average surface temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, the mean 3-hourly rainfall rates in the simulated storms increase by 3–7% K −1 compared to present. This change increases in magnitude for the 95th and 99th percentile 3-hourly rates, which intensify by 10–13% K −1 and 17–21% K −1 , respectively. Over Florida, the simulated mean rainfall accumulations increase by 16–26% K −1 , with local maxima increasing by 18–43% K −1 . All percent changes increase monotonically with warming level.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2019

Episodes of Warm-Air Advection Causing Cloud-Surface Decoupling During the MARCUS

It has been understood for decades that advection of a cloud-topped marine boundary layer (CTBL) over warmer sea surface causes the stratification (or decoupling) of the CTBL via the entrainment feedback, a mechanism commonly known as “deepening-warming” decoupling that is typical in subtropics. This study focuses on the opposite direction of advection, that is, low-level warm air advection (LLWAA), and its impacts on the decoupling degree of a CTBL. Our hypothesis is that LLWAA stabilizes a CTBL, causing a decoupling of the CTBL. It is tested for three LLWAA episodes observed during the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and CloUds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) field campaign between the Hobart (43°S, 147°E), Australia, and several Antarctic coast stations. By synthesizing the shipborne measurements of CTBL structure, Himawari-8 satellite imagery of cloud fields, and reanalysis of meteorological field, four common characteristics of CTBLs under the LLWAA are found: (1) CTBLs are highly stratified to the extent that penetrations of cumulus into main temperature inversions, which are common for subtropical decoupled CTBLs, do not exist; (2) sea surface temperature is 1–2 K lower than the near-surface air temperature; (3) clouds manifest stratiform with lifetime as long as several tens of hours; and (4) they locate in warm sectors of middle-latitude cyclones. Possible mechanisms for the maintenance of decoupled clouds under LLWAA are discussed in terms of dynamic and thermodynamic factors. Lapse rates of the decoupled CTBLs are markedly lower than those commonly used for passive satellite estimation of cloud top heights.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Climatic warming destabilizes forest ant communities

How will ecological communities change in response to climate warming? Direct effects of temperature and indirect cascading effects of species interactions are already altering the structure of local communities, but the dynamics of community change are still poorly understood. We explore the cumulative effects of warming on the dynamics and turnover of forest ant communities that were warmed as part of a 5-year climate manipulation experiment at two sites in eastern North America. At the community level, warming consistently increased occupancy of nests and decreased extinction and nest abandonment. This consistency was largely driven by strong responses of a subset of thermophilic species at each site. As colonies of thermophilic species persisted in nests for longer periods of time under warmer temperatures, turnover was diminished, and species interactions were likely altered. We found that dynamical (Lyapunov) community stability decreased with warming both within and between sites. These results refute null expectations of simple temperature-driven increases in the activity and movement of thermophilic ectotherms. The reduction in stability under warming contrasts with the findings of previous studies that suggest resilience of species interactions to experimental and natural warming. In the face of warmer, no-analog climates, communities of the future may become increasingly fragile and unstable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution mountain topography can inform global snow vulnerability estimates

Snow is changing globally. Computationally intensive snow reanalysis products and downscaled climate model projections allow for the estimation of historical and projected changes in snow over ∼4–10 km resolutions, but these resolutions are coarse relative to the scales needed for water supply and flood planning. Fine-scale digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely available but are underutilized to make first-order assessments of snow vulnerability. Here, we leverage DEMs at a 7.5 arc s (∼250 m) resolution, combining these with historical freezing level height estimates from ERA-5 to derive estimates of changes in the snow-receiving area (SRA) and its variability across global mountain ranges. Results show estimated SRA declines in 29% (1.9 million km2) of the global mountain area from 1982–2020; 66% of the mountainous areas had no change over the historical period. At +1.5 °C of warming relative to the pre-industrial control, global mountain SRA would decline by 9.5% (1.0 million km2) relative to recent conditions. This loss would be approximately doubled with +2 °C of warming. In a +4 °C warming scenario, an additional 34% (3.6 million km2) of SRA would be lost beyond the +2 °C case. Across individual mountain ranges, SRA losses can occur nonlinearly with warming, with some locations that have historically had relatively minor SRA losses at risk of substantially larger losses in warmer climates. Analysis using coarser-resolution DEMs can underestimate or overestimate SRA and its rate of loss, with the largest impacts in relatively warm, low-elevation mountain ranges. Results of this work provide estimates of projected loss in SRA at policy-relevant warming levels; inform the resolutions needed for process-based snow modeling; identify snow vulnerability hotspots; and provide a new integrated approach to snow vulnerability assessment that is achievable at global scales and highlights potential nonlinearities from recent trends to a variety of future warming scenarios.

climate, mountains↗

DOE OSTI2022

Seasonally and Regionally Dependent Shifts of the Atmospheric Westerly Jets under Global Warming

A distinct feature of the atmospheric circulation response to increasing greenhouse gas forcing is the poleward shift of the zonal-mean westerly jet. The dynamical mechanisms of the zonal-mean poleward jet shift have been extensively studied in literature. At seasonal/regional scales, however, the westerly jets can shift equatorward, such as in the early-summer Asia–Pacific region, the late-winter America–Atlantic region, and the winter/spring east Pacific. These equatorward jet shifts imply climate impacts distinct from those of the poleward shifts, yet their causes are not well understood. In this work, based on a hierarchy of coupled, prescribed-SST, and aquaplanet simulations, we attribute the seasonal/regional equatorward jet shifts to the enhanced tropical upper-level warming (ETUW), which arises from both the tropical moist adiabat and the enhanced equatorial surface warming. By steepening the meridional temperature gradient in the subtropical upper-to-middle level and assisted by positive eddy feedback, the ETUW increases the zonal wind equatorward of the climatological jet. When the regional/seasonal meridional temperature gradients (or equivalently the westerly jets) are weak and peak close to the tropics, the ETUW effect overcomes the poleward jet-shift mechanisms and leads to the equatorward jet shifts. This climatological-state dependency is consistently seen in the decomposed jet responses to uniform warming and surface warming pattern, and further demonstrated through idealized aquaplanet experiments with designed climatological states. For uniform warming, the ETUW arising from moist adiabat makes the general poleward jet shifts insignificant in the aforementioned favorable regions/seasons. For warming pattern, the ETUW from enhanced equatorial warming drives substantial equatorward jet shifts in these favorable seasons/regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗