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Large Satellite Bus Reliability

NASA is proposing to build a small space station in Cis-lunar orbit called Deep Space Gateway (DSG). At the heart of the DSG is the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) which is conceptually similar to previously designed and operated satellite buses. A satellite bus is composed of the satellite spacecraft infrastructure minus the payload, and generally includes power, propulsion, avionics, and guidance, navigation and control. In November of 2017, five companies were awarded contracts by NASA to research PPE designs. In order to better understand the reliability of large satellite buses which may be the starting point of the PPE, NASA used Weibull analysis to evaluate spacecraft with similar masses and design life to the PPE. In addition, a subset of the large satellites which had satellite buses manufactured by any one of the five companies was also evaluated. This paper provides the results of the reliability analysis and compares the reliability of the general population of large satellites to the reliability associated with large satellite buses manufactured by the five companies currently studying PPE options.

Bus↗

Determination of Turbine Blade Life from Engine Field Data

It is probable that no two engine companies determine the life of their engines or their components in the same way or apply the same experience and safety factors to their designs. Knowing the failure mode that is most likely to occur minimizes the amount of uncertainty and simplifies failure and life analysis. Available data regarding failure mode for aircraft engine blades, while favoring low-cycle, thermal mechanical fatigue as the controlling mode of failure, are not definitive. Sixteen high-pressure turbine (HPT) T-1 blade sets were removed from commercial aircraft engines that had been commercially flown by a single airline and inspected for damage. Each set contained 82 blades. The damage was cataloged into three categories related to their mode of failure: (1) Thermal-mechanical fatigue, (2) Oxidation/Erosion, and (3) "Other." From these field data, the turbine blade life was determined as well as the lives related to individual blade failure modes using Johnson-Weibull analysis. A simplified formula for calculating turbine blade life and reliability was formulated. The L(sub 10) blade life was calculated to be 2427 cycles (11 077 hr). The resulting blade life attributed to oxidation/erosion equaled that attributed to thermal-mechanical fatigue. The category that contributed most to blade failure was Other. If there were there no blade failures attributed to oxidation/erosion and thermal-mechanical fatigue, the overall blade L(sub 10) life would increase approximately 11 to 17 percent.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

Determination of Turbine Blade Life from Engine Field Data

It is probable that no two engine companies determine the life of their engines or their components in the same way or apply the same experience and safety factors to their designs. Knowing the failure mode that is most likely to occur minimizes the amount of uncertainty and simplifies failure and life analysis. Available data regarding failure mode for aircraft engine blades, while favoring low-cycle, thermal-mechanical fatigue (TMF) as the controlling mode of failure, are not definitive. Sixteen high-pressure turbine (HPT) T-1 blade sets were removed from commercial aircraft engines that had been commercially flown by a single airline and inspected for damage. Each set contained 82 blades. The damage was cataloged into three categories related to their mode of failure: (1) TMF, (2) Oxidation/erosion (O/E), and (3) Other. From these field data, the turbine blade life was determined as well as the lives related to individual blade failure modes using Johnson-Weibull analysis. A simplified formula for calculating turbine blade life and reliability was formulated. The L10 blade life was calculated to be 2427 cycles (11 077 hr). The resulting blade life attributed to O/E equaled that attributed to TMF. The category that contributed most to blade failure was Other. If there were no blade failures attributed to O/E and TMF, the overall blade L(sub 10) life would increase approximately 11 to 17 percent.

Zaretsky, Erwin V.↗

Producibility of fibrous refractory composite insulation, FRCI 40-20

Fibrous Refractory Composite Insulation (FRCI) is a NASA-developed, second generation, reusable heat-shield material that comprises a mixture of aluminoborosilicate fibers, silica fibers, and silicon carbide. Under NASA contract, a program was conducted to demonstrate the capability for manufacturing FRCI 40-20 billets. A detailed fabrication procedure was written and validated by testing specimens from the first two billets. The material conformed to NASA requirements for density, tensile strength, modulus of rupture, thermal expansion, cristobalite content, and uniformity. Twenty-four billets were prepared to provide 20 deliverable articles. Production billets were checked for density, modulus of rupture, cristobalite content, and uniformity. Billet density ranged from 309.48 to 332.22 kg/cu m (19.32 to 20.74 lb/cu ft) and modulus of rupture from 4690 to 10,140 kPa (680 to 1470 psi). Cristobalite content was less than 1 percent. A Weibull analysis of modulus-of-rupture data indicated a 1.5 percent probability for failure below the specified strength of 4480 kPa (650 psi).

Strauss, E. L.↗

Time dependent reliability model incorporating continuum damage mechanics for high-temperature ceramics

Presently there are many opportunities for the application of ceramic materials at elevated temperatures. In the near future ceramic materials are expected to supplant high temperature metal alloys in a number of applications. It thus becomes essential to develop a capability to predict the time-dependent response of these materials. The creep rupture phenomenon is discussed, and a time-dependent reliability model is outlined that integrates continuum damage mechanics principles and Weibull analysis. Several features of the model are presented in a qualitative fashion, including predictions of both reliability and hazard rate. In addition, a comparison of the continuum and the microstructural kinetic equations highlights a strong resemblance in the two approaches.

Duffy, Stephen F.↗

The effects of temperature gradient and growth rate on the morphology and fatigue properties of MAR-M246(Hf)

MAR-M246(Hf) is a nickel based superalloy used in the turbopump blades of the Space Shuttle main engines. The effects are considered of temperature gradient (G) and growth rate (R) on the microstructure and fatigue properties of this superalloy. The primary dendrite arm spacings were found to be inversely proportional to both temperature gradient and growth rate. Carbide and gamma - gamma prime morphology trends were related to G/R ratios. Weibull analysis of fatigue results shows the characteristic life to be larger by a factor of 10 for the low gradient/fast rate pairing of G and R, while the reliability (beta) was lower.

Schmidt, D. D.↗

The effects of multiple repairs on Inconel 718 weld mechanical properties

Inconel 718 weldments were repaired 3, 6, 9, and 13 times using the gas tungsten arc welding process. The welded panels were machined into mechanical test specimens, postweld heat treated, and nondestructively tested. Tensile properties and high cycle fatigue life were evaluated and the results compared to unrepaired weld properties. Mechanical property data were analyzed using the statistical methods of difference in means for tensile properties and difference in log means and Weibull analysis for high cycle fatigue properties. Statistical analysis performed on the data did not show a significant decrease in tensile or high cycle fatigue properties due to the repeated repairs. Some degradation was observed in all properties, however, it was minimal.

Russell, C. K.↗

A statistical comparison of two carbon fiber/epoxy fabrication techniques

A statistical comparison of the compression strengths of specimens that were fabricated by either a platen press or an autoclave were performed on IM6/3501-6 carbon/epoxy composites of 16-ply (0,+45,90,-45)(sub S2) lay-up configuration. The samples were cured with the same parameters and processing materials. It was found that the autoclaved panels were thicker than the platen press cured samples. Two hundred samples of each type of cure process were compression tested. The autoclaved samples had an average strength of 450 MPa (65.5 ksi), while the press cured samples had an average strength of 370 MPa (54.0 ksi). A Weibull analysis of the data showed that there is only a 30 pct. probability that the two types of cure systems yield specimens that can be considered from the same family.

Hodge, A. J.↗

NASA Tech Briefs, September 2005

Topivs include: Diamond-Coated Carbon Nanotubes for Efficient Field Emission; Improved Anode Coatings for Direct Methanol Fuel Cells; Advanced Ablative Insulators and Methods of Making Them; PETIs as High-Temperature Resin-Transfer-Molding Materials; Stable Polyimides for Terrestrial and Space Uses; Low-Density, Aerogel-Filled Thermal-Insulation Tiles; High-Performance Polymers Having Low Melt Viscosities; Nonflammable, Hydrophobic Aerogel Composites for Insulation; Front-Side Microstrip Line Feeding a Raised Antenna Patch; Medium-Frequency Pseudonoise Georadar; Facilitating Navigation Through Large Archives; Program for Weibull Analysis of Fatigue Data; Comprehensive Micromechanics-Analysis Code - Version 4.0; Component-Based Visualization System; Software for Engineering Simulations of a Spacecraft; LabVIEW Interface for PCI-SpaceWire Interface Card; Path Following with Slip Compensation for a Mars Rover; International Space Station Electric Power System Performance Code-SPACE; Software for Automation of Real-Time Agents, Version 2; Software for Optimizing Plans Involving Interdependent Goals; Computing Gravitational Fields of Finite-Sized Bodies; Custom Sky-Image Mosaics from NASA's Information Power Grid; ANTLR Tree Grammar Generator and Extensions; Generic Kalman Filter Software; Alignment Stage for a Cryogenic Dilatometer; Rugged Iris Mechanism; Treatments To Produce Stabilized Aluminum Mirrors for Cryogenic Uses; Making AlNx Tunnel Barriers Using a Low-Energy Nitrogen-Ion Beam; Making Wide-IF SIS Mixers with Suspended Metal-Beam Leads; Sol-Gel Glass Holographic Light-Shaping Diffusers; Automated Counting of Particles To Quantify Cleanliness; Phase Correction for GPS Antenna with Nonunique Phase Center; Compact Infrasonic Windscreen; Broadband External-Cavity Diode Laser; High-Efficiency Solar Cells Using Photonic-Bandgap Materials; Generating Solid Models from Topographical Data; Computationally Lightweight Air-Traffic-Control Simulation; Spool Valve for Switching Air Flows Between Two Beds; Partial Model of Insulator/ Insulator Contact Charging; Asymmetric Electrostatic Radiation Shielding for Spacecraft; and Reusable Hybrid Propellant Modules for Outer-Space Transport.

Source record↗

Fatigue and flexural response of advanced carbon-carbon composites at room and elevated temperatures

The flexural response of SiC-coated carbon-carbon composites (ACC-4) at room and elevated temperatures is presented. Three-point bending tests were performed on virgin and mission-cycled specimens, and the variation in flexural strength is examined. The load-deflection behavior of the material at various temperatures is investigated, and the Weibull (1939) analysis of the strength data is performed. Micrographs of various cross sections in the damaged zone were taken, and the failure mechanisms are discussed. Fatigue tests were conducted under flexural loads, and the S-N diagram with the corresponding Weibull analysis are presented. Untested as well as fractured specimens under static and dynamic loading were C-scanned to identify the damaged zone and visualize the extent of the damage. Failure analyses are presented for both static and cyclic loading on the basis of NDE, the micrographs, and the experimental data.

Mahfuz, Hassan↗

Effect of production processes on the fracture strength of silicon solar cells

Fracture of Czochralski silicon wafers during processing is an important factor in solar cell yield and cost. A fracture-mechanics test and analysis program was developed to evaluate fracture strength changes in the in-process wafer-to-cell processing at different stages on a manufacturer's production line. The strength data were described by Weibull statistical analysis and can be interpreted with the surface-flaw distribution of each of the process steps.

Chen, C. P.↗

Comparison of Weibull strength parameters from flexure and spin tests of brittle materials

Fracture data from five series of four point bend tests of beam and spin tests of flat annular disks were reanalyzed. Silicon nitride and graphite were the test materials. The experimental fracture strengths of the disks were compared with the predicted strengths based on both volume flaw and surface flaw analyses of four point bend data. Volume flaw analysis resulted in a better correlation between disks and beams in three of the five test series than did surface flaw analysis. The Weibull (moduli) and characteristic gage strengths for the disks and beams were also compared. Differences in the experimental Weibull slopes were not statistically significant. It was shown that results from the beam tests can predict the fracture strength of rotating disks.

Holland, Frederic A., Jr.↗

Fracture strength of GaAs solar cells as a function of manufacturing process steps

Fracture of single crystal GaAs substrate during the solar cell processing is an important factor in solar cell yield and cost. Fracture mechanics technique was utilized to evaluate cell cracking characteristics and changes in fracture strength of GaAs solar cells in a present state-of-the-art of manufacturing process for GaAs solar cells from wafer to complete cell of a typical production line. Considerable change in the fracture strength of GaAs solar cells as a function of cell processing was found. The strength data were described by Weibull statistical analysis and can be interpreted with the change of flaw distribution of each of the manufacturing process steps.

Chen, C. P.↗

Long-life assessment of graphite epoxy materials for Space Station Freedom pressure vessels

Graphite/epoxy composite overwrapped pressure vessels are being considered for use on Space Station Freedom because of their light weight and high efficiency. These composite pressure vessels weigh roughly one-third of comparable all-metal aluminum pressure vessels, and could result in a 15,000-lb weight saving for the propulsion and fluid management and distribution systems. These vessels must resist failures under sustained pressure loads for crew safety considerations and adequate protection of the space structure during their 30-yr life. Weibull statistical analysis techniques have been applied, and a model developed, for predicting long-term stress-rupture behavior based on published short-term test data on composite strands and pressure vessels. Graphite/epoxy materials are calculated to have a 99.99-percent probability of surviving stress rupture for 30 yr under a sustained load of 50 percent ultimate failure strength. Stress-rupture lifetimes are predicted to increase as the size of the pressure vessels increases in support of the viscoelastic load-transfer mechanism proposed for stress rupture of fiber/epoxy composite materials.

Thomas, Donald A.↗

Basis for the thermal-vacuum hot dwell test duration

This work suggests that the hot dwell duration for each test should be determined in two steps: a minimum hot duration of 80 hours be required and then followed by specific tailoring be conducted to arrive at the proper test duration.

early test failure distribution Weibull analysis r↗

Pharmaceuticals Exposed to the Space Environment: Problems and Prospects

The NASA Human Research Program (HRP) Health Countermeasures Element maintains ongoing efforts to inform detailed risks, gaps, and further questions associated with the use of pharmaceuticals in space. Most recently, the Pharmacology Risk Report, released in 2010, illustrates the problems associated with maintaining pharmaceutical efficacy. Since the report, one key publication includes evaluation of pharmaceutical products stored on the International Space Station (ISS). This study shows that selected pharmaceuticals on ISS have a shorter shelf-life in space than corresponding terrestrial controls. The HRP Human Research Roadmap for planetary exploration identifies the risk of ineffective or toxic medications due to long-term storage during missions to Mars. The roadmap also identifies the need to understand and predict how pharmaceuticals will behave when exposed to radiation for long durations. Terrestrial studies of returned samples offer a start for predictive modeling. This paper shows that pharmaceuticals returned to Earth for post-flight analyses are amenable to a Weibull distribution analysis in order to support probabilistic risk assessment modeling. The paper also considers the prospect of passive payloads of key pharmaceuticals on sample return missions outside of Earth's magnetic field to gather additional statistics. Ongoing work in radiation chemistry suggests possible mitigation strategies where future work could be done at cryogenic temperatures to explore methods for preserving the strength of pharmaceuticals in the space radiation environment, perhaps one day leading to an architecture where pharmaceuticals are cached on the Martian surface and preserved cryogenically.

pharmacology↗

Rolling-Bearing Service Life Based on Probable Cause for Removal: A Tutorial

In 1947 and 1952, Gustaf Lundberg and Arvid Palmgren developed what is now referred to as the Lundberg-Palmgren Model for Rolling Bearing Life Prediction based on classical rolling-element fatigue. Today, bearing fatigue probably accounts for less than 5 percent of bearings removed from service for cause. A bearing service life prediction methodology and tutorial indexed to eight probable causes for bearing removal, including fatigue, are presented, which incorporate strict series reliability; Weibull statistical analysis; available published field data from the Naval Air Rework Facility; and 224,000 rolling-element bearings removed for rework from commercial aircraft engines.

Life prediction↗