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DOE OSTI2021

Valuation of Wind Energy Turbines Using Volatility of Wind and Price

The limitedness of the nonrenewable local energy resources in Israel, even in the background of the later gas fields’ findings, continues to force the state to devote various efforts towards ‘green’ energy development. These efforts include installations, both for the solar and for wind energy, thus improving the diversity of energy sources. While the standard discounted cash flow (DCF) method using the net present value (NPV) criterion is extensively adopted to evaluate investments, the standard DCF method is inappropriate for the rapidly changing investment climate and for the managerial flexibility in investment decisions. In recent years, the real options analysis (ROA) technique has been widely applied in many studies for the valuation of renewable energy investment projects. Taking into account the above background, we apply, in this study, the real options analysis approach for the valuation of wind energy turbines and apply it to the analysis of wind energy economic potential in Israel, which is the context of our work. We hypothesize that due to nature of wind energy production uncertainties, the ROA method is better than the alternative. The novelty of this paper includes the following: real world wind statistics of the Merom Golan site in Israel (velocity 3.73 m/s, with a standard deviation of 2.03 m/s), a realistic power generation estimation (power generation of 1205.84 kW with a standard deviation of about 0.5% in annual value which is worth about 1.3 M$ per annum), and an economic model to evaluate the profitability of such a project. We thus discuss the existing challenges of diversifying renewable energy sources in Israel by adding wind installations. Our motivation is to introduce a method which will allow investors and officials to take into account uncertainties when deciding in investing in such wind installations. The outcomes of the paper, which are obtained using the method of Weibull statistics and the Black–Scholes ROA technique, include the result that market price volatility adds to the uncertainties much more than any wind fluctuations, provided that the analysis is integrated over a long enough time.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

TRISO Burnup-Dependent Failure Analysis of a HTGR Design-Basis Accident Using BISON

Here, this work assesses the failure behavior of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRIstructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles with BISON during both steady-state and transient conditions for the MHTGR-350 design by General Atomics. A one-dimensional BISON model for a uranium oxycarbide–bearing TRISO is developed to simulate a power level of 50 mW/particles up to 12.4% fissions per initial metal atom (FIMA). Stress predictions for the materials of interest are presented as a function of burnup, along with the SiC failure probability computed using Weibull statistics under the assumption of realistic SiC quality.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Status Report on ASME Code Development for Nonmetallic Core Components in 2020

The purpose of this report is to provide a status update on the progress and ongoing activities of the current ASME Boiler Pressure Vessel (BPV) Code Section III, Division 5, on nonmetallic core components and assemblies which includes the design rules for graphite and ceramic composite materials. Section III is concerned with the design and construction of nuclear reactor components and Division 5 focuses on high temperature reactors (HTR). The ASME Section III Committee’s function for nuclear items other than pressure-retaining components, is to establish rules of safety related to structural integrity. The term “construction” refers to the all-inclusive effort comprising of materials, design, fabrication, examination, inspection, testing, certification, and pressure relief. The Department of Energy (DOE) supports industry codes and standards development through focused research providing the technical basis for new or modified codes and standards and the participation of subject matter experts in codes and standards committees. The activities for the nonmetallic core components and assemblies committees are the pursuit of two working groups that meet quarterly during ASME BPV Code Week meetings. The two working groups are General Requirements for Graphite and Ceramic Composite Core Components and Assemblies (GR GCCCCA) and Nonmetallic Design and Materials (NDM). The rules on general requirements for nonmetallic core components are discussed in the articles of Subsection HA subpart B. Ceramic composites were recently incorporated within the rules, and the GR GCCCCA working group is now in the process of aligning the requirements with the subsections and articles of ASME BPV Code Section III NCA, the general requirements for Division 1 and 2 of the code. The NDM working group is concerned with the design rules for graphite and composite materials for core components and assemblies discussed in Subsection HH (Class SN Nonmetallic Core Components) subpart A and subpart B which reference graphite and composite materials respectively. The bulk of the progress and work is done within this working group. A significant undertaking, with discussion that started in 2015, is to gain endorsement of ASME Section III, Division 5, by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). In June 2018, ASME formally recommended endorsement to the NRC. The NRC has since initiated the endorsement review process, which is to be concluded early in 2021. ASME task groups on metallic structures and components, as well as non-metallic core support structures, have been formed to define potential pathways and schedules for NRC endorsement of Division 5. NRC determined to perform a review on the 2017 edition of Section III Division 5 as a baseline. As a result, the use of graphite as nonmetallic core components formed part of the review, but it excluded composite materials (which were first introduced in the 2019 edition). This report documents progress in FY 2020 directed toward ASME’s efforts to develop design codes for graphite and composites. Progress includes a major code review by NRC, the first code enquiry, and its solution, an overhaul of the treatment of Weibull Statistics, and the addition of Nonmandatory Appendices to the composites code relating to carbon-carbon composite materials.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Develop and Connect TRISO Failure Analysis and Uncertainty Quantification to Fission Product Release Calculation Capability

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the development of BISON, a high-fidelity and high-resolution fuel performance tool. Stress-based failure probability has been developed and analyzed to assess the integrity of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles during fuel life cycles. While simple, stress-based approaches to failure probability leveraging the Weibull statistical distribution entails a number of drawbacks when stress concentration occurs near crack tips, including finite element mesh size dependency. In this report, we use an interaction integral approach to the computation of stress intensity factors in functionally graded materials (FGM) for axisymmetric models. The inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) cracking induced silicon carbide (SiC) failure is one of the dominated failure modes in TRISO failure analysis. In this study, we consider a crack in the IPyC layer perpendicular to the SiC layer. The interface between these two TRISO layers is considered to be porous, which we simulate considering a transition of mechanical properties over the porous length. These aspects are considered in the computation of stress intensity factor (SIF) from a fracture mechanics approach and compared with the known stress-based failure probability approach.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1967

The analysis of Gemini 7 EEG data by three different computer oriented methods

The problem in assessment of electroencephalograms has been the subject element in visual evaluations of such records as well as the need for extensive training (2 or 3 years) before suitable candidate is capable to perform this task. There have been variety of computer type analyses of EEG during the past ten years or more, and we are still searching for a reliable, inexpensive, online data processing procedure for this task. We are aware our Soviet colleagues are routinely using computer assessment of EEGs, using relatively inexpensive hardware. In our report we endeavor to show how four different assessment procedures (visual assessment, zero crossing technique, smoothing and peak counting technique, and Weibull Statistic) may be utilized, and indicate the advantages and disadvantages peculiar to each. We wish to point out that in the Gemini 7 EEG analog records supplied to the Henry Ford Hospital, Channel II (mid-line central to mid-line occipital electrodes) could not be assessed reliably after approximately 26 hours of flight. Channel I (left central to left occipital electrodes) provided the more assessable EEG up to approximately 54 hours of flight. These channels were compared during the first 26 hours of flight, and no significant difference was found by our various assessment procedures. We, therefore, have limited this report to the findings on the analyses of Channel I during its approximate 54 hours of flight.

Proctor, L. D.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Effect of production processes on the fracture strength of silicon solar cells

Fracture of Czochralski silicon wafers during processing is an important factor in solar cell yield and cost. A fracture-mechanics test and analysis program was developed to evaluate fracture strength changes in the in-process wafer-to-cell processing at different stages on a manufacturer's production line. The strength data were described by Weibull statistical analysis and can be interpreted with the surface-flaw distribution of each of the process steps.

Chen, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1985

Fracture strength of GaAs solar cells as a function of manufacturing process steps

Fracture of single crystal GaAs substrate during the solar cell processing is an important factor in solar cell yield and cost. Fracture mechanics technique was utilized to evaluate cell cracking characteristics and changes in fracture strength of GaAs solar cells in a present state-of-the-art of manufacturing process for GaAs solar cells from wafer to complete cell of a typical production line. Considerable change in the fracture strength of GaAs solar cells as a function of cell processing was found. The strength data were described by Weibull statistical analysis and can be interpreted with the change of flaw distribution of each of the manufacturing process steps.

Chen, C. P.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Monolithic ceramic analysis using the SCARE program

The Structural Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation (SCARE) computer program calculates the fast fracture reliability of monolithic ceramic components. The code is a post-processor to the MSC/NASTRAN general purpose finite element program. The SCARE program automatically accepts the MSC/NASTRAN output necessary to compute reliability. This includes element stresses, temperatures, volumes, and areas. The SCARE program computes two-parameter Weibull strength distributions from input fracture data for both volume and surface flaws. The distributions can then be used to calculate the reliability of geometrically complex components subjected to multiaxial stress states. Several fracture criteria and flaw types are available for selection by the user, including out-of-plane crack extension theories. The theoretical basis for the reliability calculations was proposed by Batdorf. These models combine linear elastic fracture mechanics (LEFM) with Weibull statistics to provide a mechanistic failure criterion. Other fracture theories included in SCARE are the normal stress averaging technique and the principle of independent action. The objective of this presentation is to summarize these theories, including their limitations and advantages, and to provide a general description of the SCARE program, along with example problems.

Manderscheid, Jane M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewel theory

A method to estimate the frequency of transmission overhauls is presented. This method is based on the two-parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life. A second method is presented to estimate the number of replacement components needed to support the transmission overhaul pattern. The second method is based on renewal theory. Confidence statistics are applied with both methods to improve the statistical estimate of sample behavior. A transmission example is also presented to illustrate the use of the methods. Transmission overhaul frequency and component replacement calculations are included in the example.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Transmission overhaul and replacement predictions using Weibull and renewal theory

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

Savage, M.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scale effects on the transverse tensile strength of graphite epoxy composites

The influence of material volume on the transverse tensile strength of AS4/3501-6 graphite epoxy composites was investigated. Tensile tests of 90 degree laminates with 3 different widths and 5 different thicknesses were conducted. A finite element analysis was performed to determine the influence of the grip on the stress distribution in the coupons and explain the tendency for the distribution of failure locations to be skewed toward the grip. Specimens were instrumented with strain gages and extensometers to insure good alignment and to measure failure strains. Data indicated that matrix dominated strength properties varied with the volume of material that was stressed, with the strength decreasing as volume increased. Transverse strength data were used in a volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics to predict the strength of 90 degree laminates loaded in three point bending. Comparisons were also made between transverse strength measurements and out-of-plane interlaminar tensile strength measurements from curved beam bending tests. The significance of observed scale effects on the use of tests for material screening, quality assurance, and design allowables is discussed.

Obrien, T. Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1992

Long-life assessment of graphite epoxy materials for Space Station Freedom pressure vessels

Graphite/epoxy composite overwrapped pressure vessels are being considered for use on Space Station Freedom because of their light weight and high efficiency. These composite pressure vessels weigh roughly one-third of comparable all-metal aluminum pressure vessels, and could result in a 15,000-lb weight saving for the propulsion and fluid management and distribution systems. These vessels must resist failures under sustained pressure loads for crew safety considerations and adequate protection of the space structure during their 30-yr life. Weibull statistical analysis techniques have been applied, and a model developed, for predicting long-term stress-rupture behavior based on published short-term test data on composite strands and pressure vessels. Graphite/epoxy materials are calculated to have a 99.99-percent probability of surviving stress rupture for 30 yr under a sustained load of 50 percent ultimate failure strength. Stress-rupture lifetimes are predicted to increase as the size of the pressure vessels increases in support of the viscoelastic load-transfer mechanism proposed for stress rupture of fiber/epoxy composite materials.

Thomas, Donald A.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Evaluation of some scale effects in the response and failure of composite beams

The feasibility of using scale model testing for predicting full-scale behavior of composite beams loaded in tension and flexure was investigated. Classical laws of similitude were applied to fabricate and test replica model beams to identify scaling effects in the load response, strength, and mode of failure. Experiments were conducted using graphite-epoxy composite beams having different laminate stacking sequences and a range of scaled sizes. Results indicated that the elastic response of scaled composite beams was independent of specimen size. However, a significant scale effect in strength was observed. In addition, a transition in failure mode was observed among scaled beams of certain laminate stacking sequences. Weibull statistical and fracture mechanics based models were applied to predict the strength scale effect since standard failure criteria cannot account for the influence of absolute specimen size in failure.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Scale effects in the response and failure of fiber reinforced composite laminates loaded in tension and in flexure

The feasibility of using scale model testing for predicting the full-scale behavior of flat composite coupons loaded in tension and beam-columns loaded in flexure is examined. Classical laws of similitude are applied to fabricate and test replica model specimens to identify scaling effects in the load response, strength, and mode of failure. Experiments were performed on graphite-epoxy composite specimens having different laminate stacking sequences and a range of scaled sizes. From the experiments it was deduced that the elastic response of scaled composite specimens was independent of size. However, a significant scale effect in strength was observed. In addition, a transition in failure mode was observed among scaled specimens of certain laminate stacking sequences. A Weibull statistical model and a fracture mechanics based model were applied to predict the strength scale effect since standard failure criteria cannot account for the influence of absolute specimen size on strength.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Damage and strength of composite materials: Trends, predictions, and challenges

Research on damage mechanisms and ultimate strength of composite materials relevant to scaling issues will be addressed in this viewgraph presentation. The use of fracture mechanics and Weibull statistics to predict scaling effects for the onset of isolated damage mechanisms will be highlighted. The ability of simple fracture mechanics models to predict trends that are useful in parametric or preliminary designs studies will be reviewed. The limitations of these simple models for complex loading conditions will also be noted. The difficulty in developing generic criteria for the growth of these mechanisms needed in progressive damage models to predict strength will be addressed. A specific example for a problem where failure is a direct consequence of progressive delamination will be explored. A damage threshold/fail-safety concept for addressing composite damage tolerance will be discussed.

Obrien, T. Kevin↗

NASA NTRS1995

Flexure fatigue testing of 90 deg graphite/epoxy composites

A great deal of research has been performed characterizing the in-plane fiber-dominated properties, under both static and fatigue loading, of advanced composite materials. To the author's knowledge, no study has been performed to date investigating fatigue characteristics in the transverse direction. This information is important in the design of bonded composite airframe structure where repeated, cyclic out-of-plane bending may occur. Recent tests characterizing skin/stringer debond failures in reinforced composite panels where the dominant loading in the skin is flexure along the edge of the frame indicate failure initiated either in the skin or else the flange, near the flange tip. When failure initiated in the skin, transverse matrix cracks formed in the surface skin ply closest to the flange and either initiated delaminations or created matrix cracks in the next lower ply, which in turn initiated delaminations. When failure initiated in the flanges, transverse cracks formed in the flange angle ply closest to the skin and initiated delamination. In no configuration did failure propagate through the adhesive bond layer. For the examined skin/flange configurations, the maximum transverse tension stress at failure correlates very well with the transverse tension strength of the composites. Transverse tension strength (static) data of graphite epoxy composites have been shown to vary with the volume of material stressed. As the volume of material stressed increased, the strength decreased. A volumetric scaling law based on Weibull statistics can be used to predict the transverse strength measurements. The volume dependence reflects the presence of inherent flaws in the microstructure of the lamina. A similar approach may be taken to determine a volume scale effect on the transverse tension fatigue behavior of graphite/epoxy composites. The objective of this work is to generate transverse tension strength and fatigue S-N characteristics for composite materials using 3-point flexure tests of 90 deg graphite/epoxy specimens. Investigations will include the volume scale effect as well as frequency and span-to-thickness ratio effects. Prior to the start of the experimental study, an analytical study using finite element modeling will be performed to investigate the span-to-thickness effect. The ratio of transverse flexure stress to shear stress will be monitored and its values predicted by the FEM analysis compared with the value obtained using a 'strength of materials' based approach.

Peck, Ann Nancy W.↗

NASA NTRS1998

High Temperature Mechanical Characterization of Ceramic Matrix Composites

A high temperature mechanical characterization laboratory has been assembled at NASA Lewis Research Center. One contribution of this work is to test ceramic matrix composite specimens in tension in environmental extremes. Two high temperature tensile testing systems were assembled. The systems were assembled based on the performance and experience of other laboratories and meeting projected service conditions for the materials in question. The systems use frames with an electric actuator and a center screw. A PC based data acquisition and analysis system is used to collect and analyze the data. Mechanical extensometers are used to measure specimen strain. Thermocouples, placed near the specimen, are used to measure the specimen gage section temperature. The system for testing in air has a resistance element furnace with molybdenum disilicide elements and pneumatic grips with water cooling attached to hydraulic alignment devices. The system for testing in an inert gas has a graphite resistance element furnace in a chamber with rigidly mounted, water cooled, hydraulically actuated grips. Unidirectional SiC fiber reinforced reaction bonded Si3N4 and triaxially woven, two dimensional, SiC fiber reinforced enhanced SiC composites were tested in unidirectional tension. Theories for predicting the Young's modulus, modulus near the ultimate strength, first matrix cracking stress, and ultimate strength were applied and evaluated for suitability in predicting the mechanical behavior of SiC/RBSN and enhanced SiC/SiC composites. The SiC/RBSN composite exhibited pseudo tough behavior (increased area under the stress/strain curve) from 22 C to 1500 C. The rule of mixtures provides a good estimate of the Young's modulus of the SiC/RBSN composite using the constituent properties from room temperature to 1440 C for short term static tensile tests in air or nitrogen. The rule of mixtures significantly overestimates the secondary modulus near the ultimate strength. The ACK theory provides the best approximation of the first matrix cracking stress when residual stresses are ignored. The theory of Cao and Thouless, based on Weibull statistics, gave the best prediction for the composite ultimate strength. The enhanced SiC/SiC composite exhibited nonlinear stress/strain behavior from 24 C to 1370 C in air with increased ultimate strain when compared to monolithic SiC. The theory of Yang and Chou with the assumption of a frictional fiber/matrix interface provided the best estimate of the Young's modulus. The theory of Cao and Thouless gave the best estimate for the ultimate strength.

Gyekenyesi, John Z.↗