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A Comparative Study of Contrail Frequency Indices and GOES-16 Contrail Data Set

Contrail formations have been shown to contribute to the greenhouse effect: they are practically transparent to incoming solar radiation and do little to reflect heat away from Earth but are highly effective at trapping heat within Earth’s atmosphere. To understand the impact contrails have on climate change, contrail frequency indices (CFIs) can be used as a method to quantify aircraft-induced persistent contrails. These indices are capable of tracking long-term contrail formation and identify regions of airspace with the highest contrail formation rates. In this aper, an algorithm is proposed which is capable of using NASA Sherlock and Global Forecast System (GFS) datasets and computing CFIs over large geographic regions and long temporal intervals using NASA Ames’ High-End Computing Capability (HECC) supercomputing system. CFIs are computed using nowcast weather data and previously flown flight tracks. This paper calculated the CFIs of all twenty Air Route Traffic Control Centers in the National Airspace System on October 28th, 2019 and compared the distribution of non-zero CFIs with observed contrail data collected from GOES-16 Satellite data in order to assess the accuracy of the CFI system as a contrail prediction model. It was ultimately determined that the computed CFIs were broadly distributed in the same way as the GOES-16 contrail data and that the individual CFIs computed at the latitude/longitude points at which GOES-16 contrail masks were available had high precision and recall (at 0.75 and 0.86 respectively). While these validation results bode well for the accuracy of the CFI method, the number of provided GOES-16 masks was quite small. Future work should aim to increase the size of the GOES-16 dataset in order to perform a more comprehensive comparison between these two datasets.

Contrails↗

NASA NTRS2020

Differences in Tropical High Clouds Among Reanalyses: Origins and Radiative Impacts

We examine differences among reanalysis highcloud products in the tropics, assess the impacts of these differences on radiation budgets at the top of the atmosphere and within the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS), and discuss their possible origins in the context of the reanalysis models. We focus on the ERA5 (fifthgeneration European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts – ECMWF – reanalysis), ERA-Interim (ECMWF Interim Reanalysis), JRA-55 (Japanese 55-year Reanalysis), MERRA-2 (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2), and CFSR/CFSv2 (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis/Climate Forecast System Version 2) reanalyses. As a general rule, JRA-55 produces the smallest tropical high-cloud fractions and cloud water contents among the reanalyses, while MERRA-2 produces the largest. Accordingly, long-wave cloud radiative effects are relatively weak in JRA-55 and relatively strong in MERRA-2. Only MERRA-2 and ERA5 among the reanalyses produce tropical-mean values of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) close to those observed, but ERA5 tends to underestimate cloud effects, while MERRA-2 tends to overestimate variability. ERA5 also produces distributions of longwave, short-wave, and total cloud radiative effects at the top of the atmosphere that are very consistent with those observed. The other reanalyses all exhibit substantial biases in at least one of these metrics, although compensation between the long-wave and short-wave effects helps to constrain biases in the total cloud radiative effect for most reanalyses. The vertical distribution of cloud water content emerges as a key difference between ERA-Interim and other reanalyses. Whereas ERA-Interim shows a monotonic decrease of cloud water content with increasing height, the other reanalyses all produce distinct anvil layers. The latter is in better agreement with observations and yields very different profiles of radiative heating in the UTLS. For example, whereas the altitude of the level of zero net radiative heating tends to be lower in convective regions than in the rest of the tropics in ERAInterim, the opposite is true for the other four reanalyses. Differences in cloud water content also help to explain systematic differences in radiative heating in the tropical lower stratosphere among the reanalyses. We discuss several ways in which aspects of the cloud and convection schemes impact the tropical environment. Discrepancies in the vertical profiles of temperature and specific humidity in convective regions are particularly noteworthy, as these variables are directly constrained by data assimilation, are widely used, and feed back to convective behaviour through their relationships with thermodynamic stability.

High Clouds↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP): Results, Status and Future

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is one of a number of long-term, satellite-based, global analyses routinely produced under the auspices of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) and its Global Energy and Watercycle EXperiment (GEWEX) program. The research quality analyses are produced a few months after real-time through the efforts of scientists at various national agencies and universities in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The primary product is a monthly analysis of surface precipitation that is globally complete and spans the period 1979-present. There are also pentad analyses for the same period and a daily analysis for the 1997-present period. Although generated with somewhat different data sets and analysis schemes, the pentad and daily data sets are forced to agree with the primary monthly analysis on a grid box by grid box basis. The primary input data sets are from low-orbit passive microwave observations, geostationary infrared observations and surface raingauge information. Examples of research with the data sets are discussed, focusing on tropical (25N-25s) rainfall variations and possible long-term changes in the 28-year (1979-2006) monthly dataset. Techniques are used to discriminate among the variations due to ENSO, volcanic events and possible long-term changes for rainfall over both land and ocean. The impact of the two major volcanic eruptions over the past 25 years is estimated to be about a 5% maximum reduction in tropical rainfall during each event. Although the global change of precipitation in the data set is near zero, a small upward linear change over tropical ocean (0.06 mm/day/l0yr) and a slight downward linear change over tropical land (-0.03 mm/day/l0yr) are examined to understand the impact of the inhomogeneity in the data record and the length of the data set. These positive changes correspond to about a 5% increase (ocean) and 3% increase (ocean plus land) during this time period. Relations between variations in surface temperature and precipitation are analyzed on seasonal to inter-decadal time scales. A new, version 3 of GPCP is being planned to incorporate new satellite information (e.g., TRMM) and provide higher spatial and temporal resolution for at least part of the data record. The goals and plans for that GPCP re-processing will be outlined.

Adler, Robert F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

The Late Pliocene Eltanin Impact: Documentation From Sediment Core Analyses

The expeditions ANT-XII/4 (1995) and ANT-XVIII/5a (2001) of the RV POLARSTERN collected extensive bathymetric and seismic data sets as well as sediment cores from an area in the Bellingshausen Sea (eastern Pacific Southern Ocean) that allow the first comprehensive geoscientific documentation of an asteroid impact into a deep ocean (approx. 5 km) basin, named the Eltanin impact. Impact deposits have now been recovered from a total of more than 20 sediment cores collected in an area covering about 80,000 km2. Combined biomagnetostratigraphic dating places the impact event into the earliest Matuyama Chron, a period of enhanced climate variability. Sediment texture analyses and studies of sediment composition including grain size and microfossil distribution reveal the pattern of impact- related sediment disturbance and the sedimentary processes immediately following the impact event. The pattern is complicated by the San Martin Seamounts (approx. 57.5 S, 91 W), a large topographic elevation that rises up to 3000 m above the surrounding abyssal plain in the area affected by the Eltanin impact. The impact ripped up sediments as old as Eocene and probably Paleocene that have been redeposited in a chaotic assemblage. This is followed by a sequence sedimented from a turbulent flow at the sea floor, overprinted by fall-out of airborne meteoritic ejecta that settled trough the water column. Grain size distribution reveals the timing and interaction of the different sedimentary processes. The gathered estimate of ejecta mass deposited over the studied area, composed of shock-melted asteroidal material and unmelted meteorites including fragments up to 2.5 cm in diameter, point to an Eltanin asteroid larger than the 1 km in diameter size originally suggested as a minimum based on the ANT-XII/4 results. This places the energy released by the impact at the threshold of those considered to cause environmental disturbance at a global scale and it makes the impact a likely transport mechanism explaining the presence of extinct Cenozoic microfossils in the transantarctic Sirius Unit. Although a crater structure representing Eltanin ground zero has not been discovered, the distribution pattern of sediment disturbance and ejecta deposits now allows to better determine the central target area north of the San Martin Seamounts.

Gersonde, R.↗