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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

The Prediction Model of Risk Factors for COVID-19 Developing into Severe Illness Based on 1046 Patients with COVID-19

This study analyzed the risk factors for patients with COVID-19 developing severe illnesses and explored the value of applying the logistic model combined with ROC curve analysis to predict the risk of severe illnesses at COVID-19 patients’ admissions. The clinical data of 1046 COVID-19 patients admitted to a designated hospital in a certain city from July to September 2020 were retrospectively analyzed, the clinical characteristics of the patients were collected, and a multivariate unconditional logistic regression analysis was used to determine the risk factors for severe illnesses in COVID-19 patients during hospitalization. Based on the analysis results, a prediction model for severe conditions and the ROC curve were constructed, and the predictive value of the model was assessed. Logistic regression analysis showed that age (OR = 3.257, 95% CI 10.466–18.584), complications with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (OR = 7.337, 95% CI 0.227–87.021), cough (OR = 5517, 95% CI 0.258–65.024), and venous thrombosis (OR = 7322, 95% CI 0.278–95.020) were risk factors for COVID-19 patients developing severe conditions during hospitalization. When complications were not taken into consideration, COVID-19 patients’ ages, number of diseases, and underlying diseases were risk factors influencing the development of severe illnesses. The ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC that predicted the severity of COVID-19 patients at admission was 0.943, the optimal threshold was −3.24, and the specificity was 0.824, while the sensitivity was 0.827. The changes in the condition of severe COVID-19 patients are related to many factors such as age, clinical symptoms, and underlying diseases. This study has a certain value in predicting COVID-19 patients that develop from mild to severe conditions, and this prediction model is a useful tool in the quick prediction of the changes in patients’ conditions and providing early intervention for those with risk factors.

Lian, Zhichuang↗
DOE OSTI2021

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic surveillance indicates clonal replacement of hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae ST881 and ST29 lineage strains in vivo

The emergence of hypervirulent Klebsiella pneumoniae (hvKp) poses a significant public health threat, particularly regarding its carriage in the healthy population. However, the genomic epidemiological characteristics and population dynamics of hvKp within a single patient across distinct infection episodes remain largely unknown. This study aimed to investigate the clonal replacement of hvKp K2-ST881 and K54-ST29 lineage strains in a single patient experiencing multiple-site infections during two independent episodes. Two strains, designated EDhvKp-1 and EDhvKp-2, were obtained from blood and cerebrospinal fluid during the first admission, and the strain isolated from blood on the second admission was named EDhvKp-3. Whole-genome sequencing, utilizing both short-read Illumina and long-read Oxford Nanopore platforms, was conducted. In silico multilocus sequence typing (MLST), identification of antimicrobial resistance and virulence genes, and the phylogenetic relationship between our strains and other K. pneumoniae ST881 and ST29 genomes retrieved from the public database were performed. Virulence potentials were assessed through a mouse lethality assay. Our study indicated that the strains were highly susceptible to multiple antimicrobial agents. Plasmid sequence analysis confirmed that both virulence plasmids, pEDhvKp-1 (166,008 bp) and pEDhvKp-3 (210,948 bp), belonged to IncFIB type. Multiple virulence genes, including rmpA , rmpA2 , rmpC , rmpD , iroBCDN , iucABCD , and iutA , were identified. EDhvKp-1 and EDhvKp-2 showed the closest relationship to strain 502 (differing by 51 SNPs), while EDhvKp-3 exhibited 69 SNPs differences compared to strain TAKPN-1, which all recovered from Chinese patients in 2020. In the mouse infection experiment, both ST881 EDhvKp-1 and ST29 EDhvKp-3 displayed similar virulence traits, causing 90 and 100% of the mice to die within 72 h after intraperitoneal infection, respectively. Our study expands the spectrum of hvKp lineages and highlights genomic alterations associated with clonal switching between two distinct lineages of hvKP that successively replaced each other in vivo . The development of novel strategies for the surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment of high-risk hvKp is urgently needed.

Liu, Ning↗
DOE OSTI2024

Gaseous fuel engine system operating strategy including hydrogen fueling amount based on performance target

Operating a gaseous fuel engine system includes outputting control commands to a first fuel admission valve and a second fuel admission valve to admit, respectively, a gaseous fuel blend containing a gaseous hydrogen fuel (H 2 ), and additional H 2 , into a gaseous fuel engine. An amount of the additional H 2 is determined by way of the respective control command based on a performance target for an engine parameter varying on the basis of a relative amount of H 2 in a combustion charge. Related apparatus and control logic is also disclosed.

Singh, Jaswinder↗
DOE OSTI2020

Voltage positioning using co-optimization of controllable grid assets in radial networks

With increasing penetration of solar PV, some distribution feeders are experiencing highly variable net-load flows and even reverse flows. To optimize distribution systems under such conditions, the scheduling of mechanical devices, such as OLTCs and capacitor banks, needs to take into account forecasted solar PV and actual grid conditions. However, these legacy switching assets are operated on a daily or hourly timescale, due to the wear and tear associated with mechanical switching, which makes them unsuitable for real-time control. Therefore, there is a natural timescale- separation between these slower mechanical assets and the responsive nature of inverter-based resources. In this paper, we present a network admissible convex formulation for holistically scheduling controllable grid assets to position voltage optimally against solar PV. An optimal hourly schedule is presented that utilizes mechanical resources to position the predicted voltages close to nominal values, while minimizing the use of inverter-based resources (i.e., DERs), making them available for control at a faster time-scale (after the uncertainty reveals itself). A convex, inner approximation of the OPF problem is adapted to a mixed-integer linear program that minimizes voltage deviations from nominal (i.e., maximizes voltage margins). Here, the resulting OPF solution respects all the network constraints and is, hence, robust against modeling simplifications. Simulation based analysis on IEEE distribution feeders validates the approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

A least-squares finite element method based on the Helmholtz decomposition for hyperbolic balance laws

In this paper, a least-squares finite element method for scalar nonlinear hyperbolic balance laws is proposed and studied. The approach is based on a formulation that utilizes an appropriate Helmholtz decomposition of the flux vector and is related to the standard notion of a weak solution. This relationship, together with a corresponding connection to negative-norm least-squares, is described in detail. As a consequence, an important numerical conservation theorem is obtained, similar to the famous Lax–Wendroff theorem. The numerical conservation properties of the method in this paper do not fall precisely in the framework introduced by Lax and Wendroff, but they are similar in spirit as they guarantee that when L 2 convergence holds, the resulting approximations approach a weak solution to the hyperbolic problem. The least-squares functional is continuous and coercive in an H -1 -type norm, but not L 2 -coercive. Nevertheless, the L 2 convergence properties of the method are discussed. Convergence can be obtained either by an explicit regularization of the functional, that provides control of the L 2 norm, or by properly choosing the finite element spaces, providing implicit control of the L 2 norm. Numerical results for the inviscid Burgers equation with discontinuous source terms are shown, demonstrating the L 2 convergence of the obtained approximations to the physically admissible solution. The numerical method utilizes a least-squares functional, minimized on finite element spaces, and a Gauss–Newton technique with nested iteration. Finally, we believe that the linear systems encountered with this formulation are amenable to multigrid techniques and combining the method with adaptive mesh refinement would make this approach an efficient tool for solving balance laws (this is the focus of a future study).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Fun with F24

We study some special features of F 24 , the holomorphic c = 12 superconformal field theory (SCFT) given by 24 chiral free fermions. We construct eight different Lie superalgebras of “physical” states of a chiral superstring compactified on F 24 , and we prove that they all have the structure of Borcherds-Kac-Moody superalgebras. This produces a family of new examples of such superalgebras. The models depend on the choice of an \( \mathcal{N} \) = 1 supercurrent on F 24 , with the admissible choices labeled by the semisimple Lie algebras of dimension 24. We also discuss how F 24 , with any such choice of supercurrent, can be obtained via orbifolding from another distinguished c = 12 holomorphic SCFT, the \( \mathcal{N} \) = 1 supersymmetric version of the chiral CFT based on the E 8 lattice.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bootstrapping boundaries and branes

The study of conformal boundary conditions for two-dimensional conformal field theories (CFTs) has a long history, ranging from the description of impurities in one-dimensional quantum chains to the formulation of D-branes in string theory. Nevertheless, the landscape of conformal boundaries is largely unknown, including in rational CFTs, where the local operator data is completely determined. We initiate a systematic bootstrap study of conformal boundaries in 2d CFTs by investigating the bootstrap equation that arises from the open-closed consistency condition of the annulus partition function with identical boundaries. We find that this deceivingly simple bootstrap equation, when combined with unitarity, leads to surprisingly strong constraints on admissible boundary states. In particular, we derive universal bounds on the tension (boundary entropy) of stable boundary conditions, which provide a rigorous diagnostic for potential D-brane decays. We also find unique solutions to the bootstrap problem of stable branes in a number of rational CFTs. Along the way, we observe a curious connection between the annulus bootstrap and the sphere packing problem, which is a natural extension of previous work on the modular bootstrap. We also derive bounds on the boundary entropy at large central charge. These potentially have implications for end-of-the-world branes in pure gravity on AdS 3 .

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A simple introduction to the SiMPL method for density-based topology optimization

We introduce a novel method for solving density-based topology optimization problems: Sigmoidal Mirror descent with a Projected Latent variable (SiMPL). The SiMPL method (pronounced as “the simple method”) optimizes a design using only first-order derivative information of the objective function. The bound constraints on the density field are enforced with the help of the (negative) Fermi–Dirac entropy, which is also used to define a non-symmetric distance function called a Bregman divergence on the set of admissible designs. This Bregman divergence leads to a simple update rule that is further simplified with the help of a so-called latent variable. Because the SiMPL method involves discretizing the latent variable, it produces a sequence of pointwise-feasible iterates, even when high-order finite elements are used in the discretization. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the method outperforms other popular first-order optimization algorithms. In conclusion, to outline the general applicability of the technique, we include examples with (self-load) compliance minimization and compliant mechanism optimization problems.

Calculus of Variations and Optimization↗
DOE OSTI2019

On a Question About Generalized Congruence Subgroups. I

A set of additive subgroups σ = (σ{sub ij}), 1 ≤ i, j ≤ n, of a field (or ring) K is called a net of order n over K if σ{sub ir}σ{sub rj} ⊆ σ{sub ij} for all values of the indices i, r, j. The same system, but without diagonal, is called an elementary net. A full or elementary net σ = (σ{sub ij}) is said to be irreducible if all the additive subgroups σ{sub ij} are different from zero. An elementary net σ is closed if the subgroup E(σ) does not contain new elementary transvections. The present paper is related to a question posed by Y. N. Nuzhin in connection with V. M. Levchuk’s question No. 15.46 from the Kourovka notebook about the admissibility (closure) of elementary net (carpet) σ = (σ{sub ij}) over a field K. Let J be an arbitrary subset of {1, . . . , n}, n ≥ 3, and the cardinality m of J satisfies the condition 2 ≤ m ≤ n − 1. Let R be a commutative integral domain (non-field) with identity, and let K be the quotient field of R. An example of a net σ = (σ{sub ij}) of order n over K, for which the group E(σ) ∩ 〈t{sub ij}(K) : i, j ∈ J〉 is not contained in the group 〈t{sub ij}(σ{sub ij}) : i, j ∈ J〉, is constructed.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A general kinetic framework for dislocation mobility derived from probabilistic cellular automaton simulations of the kink-pair mechanism

Dislocation mobility laws are essential components of dislocation-density-based crystal plasticity models. For dislocations governed by the kink-pair mechanism, however, existing formulations are typically limited to specific regimes due to the com plex interplay between stochastic kink-pair nucleation and lateral kink migration. In this work, we develop a general kinetic framework that expresses the average dislocation velocity as a function of mechanism-level variables: positive/negative kink pair nucleation rates, kink migration velocity, dislocation segment length, critical kink-pair width, and kink height. Probabilis tic cellular automaton simulations are used to capture the behavior of conceptual dislocation segments between the limiting conditions of migration outpacing nucleation on the one end and nucleation outpacing migration on the other. An elemen tary functional form that captures the system dynamics is suggested and fitted against the simulation results. This framework remains valid for arbitrary combinations of the six variables and is, therefore, compatible with any admissible constitutive re lations that describe their stress and temperature dependence. Comparisons with established approaches and experimental results confirm the robustness and physical consistency of the formulation, making it broadly applicable to material systems in which dislocation motion is governed by the kink-pair mechanism.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Denoising diffusion algorithm for inverse design of microstructures with fine-tuned nonlinear material properties

Here we introduce a denoising diffusion algorithm to discover microstructures with nonlinear fine-tuned properties. Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are generative models that use diffusion-based dynamics to gradually denoise images and generate realistic synthetic samples. By learning the reverse of a Markov diffusion process, we design an artificial intelligence to efficiently manipulate the topology of microstructures to generate a massive number of prototypes that exhibit constitutive responses sufficiently close to designated nonlinear constitutive behaviors. To identify the subset of microcstructures with sufficiently precise fine-tuned properties, a convolutional neural network surrogate is trained to replace high-fidelity finite element simulations to filter out prototypes outside the admissible range. Results of this study indicate that the denoising diffusion process is capable of creating microstructures of fine-tuned nonlinear material properties within the latent space of the training data. More importantly, this denoising diffusion algorithm can be easily extended to incorporate additional topological and geometric modifications by introducing high-dimensional structures embedded in the latent space. Numerical experiments are conducted on the open-source mechanical MNIST data set (Lejeune, 2020). Consequently, this algorithm is not only capable of performing inverse design of nonlinear effective media, but also learns the nonlinear structure–property map to quantitatively understand the multiscale interplay among the geometry, topology, and their effective macroscopic properties.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

An evaluation of the demand response potential of integrated dynamic window and HVAC systems

Demand response (DR) increases the flexibility and reliability of the electricity grid as use of intermittent renewable energy sources increases. HVAC and envelope DR measures present the largest aggregate energy and peak demand savings potential of all commercial building end uses because their net demand savings occur during critical peak demand periods. Controllable envelope measures include switchable electrochromic windows, operable window attachments such as outdoor louvers, roller shades, and awnings, as well as other innovative facade technologies that can modulate both solar heat gain and daylight admission over a broad solar-optical range. This study evaluated the technical potential of DR-enabled dynamic windows to reduce critical peak demand for a prototypical medium office building situated in all 16 U.S. climates. Model predictive control (MPC) algorithms were designed to minimize electricity cost in daylit perimeter office zones through control of an electrochromic window with and without HVAC thermostat setpoint control. Conventional and time-of-use rates were used to shape the degree of DR. Median annual peak demand savings with window and thermostat control across all climate zones were 24.3 kW (4.4 W/m 2 ) per building or 15.9 W/m 2 for non-north perimeter zones. Resource adequacy at the whole building level was estimated to be 13.1 to 43.4 $/kW per year over the 30-year life of the installation. Co-benefits were increased energy efficiency, and reduced electricity cost and emissions. Visual and thermal comfort requirements were met at all times. Dynamic facades controlled by MPC have substantial technical potential for DR across all U.S. climates and warrant serious consideration for inclusion in DR portfolios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-based modeling and information-theoretic sensor and settings selection for tool wear detection in precision machining

Precision machining of metals is an energy intensive process with applications and impacts across the manufacturing industry. The energy efficiency, product yield, and maintenance of the precision machine require a digital twin that can assist with prognostics and health management. In this report a physics-based model is developed and validated against face milling data, and then used for the timely and precise inference of machining faults that cannot be measured directly. Computer numerical control (CNC) measurements of power and force are used through this physics-based machining model to predict deviations of the outputs of power consumption and cutting forces during normal operation. A model-based fault detection and isolation methodology is applied to determine the optimal (traditional and available) sensor suite and the test settings (admissible input values) that improve the inference of tool wear in face milling. The optimal sensor suite and input test settings are obtained by solving a mixed integer non-linear program that optimizes information-theoretic metrics relevant to the detection and isolation of tool wear from steady-state or transient machining measurements. Dynamic time warping and k—NN classification are then used to validate the robustness of the optimal design for fault detection test design, including the optimal sensor suite.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Model-based evaluation of school- and non-school-related measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic

The role of school-based contacts in the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 is incompletely understood. We use an age-structured transmission model fitted to age-specific seroprevalence and hospital admission data to assess the effects of school-based measures at different time points during the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands. Our analyses suggest that the impact of measures reducing school-based contacts depends on the remaining opportunities to reduce non-school-based contacts. If opportunities to reduce the effective reproduction number (R e ) with non-school-based measures are exhausted or undesired and R e is still close to 1, the additional benefit of school-based measures may be considerable, particularly among older school children. As two examples, we demonstrate that keeping schools closed after the summer holidays in 2020, in the absence of other measures, would not have prevented the second pandemic wave in autumn 2020 but closing schools in November 2020 could have reduced R e below 1, with unchanged non-school-based contacts.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout

There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it is not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during the rollout of vaccination programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model that has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, and projected vaccination coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest that the pressing need to restart socioeconomic activities could lead to new pandemic waves, and that substantial control efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on control measures introduced in 2020, we anticipate that relaxing measures completely or to the extent as in autumn 2020 could launch a wave starting in April 2021. Additional waves could be prevented altogether if measures are relaxed as in summer 2020 or in a step-wise manner throughout 2021. We discuss at which point the control of COVID-19 would be achieved for each scenario.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Accurate forecasts can enable more effective public health responses during seasonal influenza epidemics. For the 2021–22 and 2022–23 influenza seasons, 26 forecasting teams provided national and jurisdiction-specific probabilistic predictions of weekly confirmed influenza hospital admissions for one-to-four weeks ahead. Forecast skill is evaluated using the Weighted Interval Score (WIS), relative WIS, and coverage. Six out of 23 models outperform the baseline model across forecast weeks and locations in 2021–22 and 12 out of 18 models in 2022–23. Averaging across all forecast targets, the FluSight ensemble is the 2nd most accurate model measured by WIS in 2021–22 and the 5th most accurate in the 2022–23 season. Forecast skill and 95% coverage for the FluSight ensemble and most component models degrade over longer forecast horizons. In this work we demonstrate that while the FluSight ensemble was a robust predictor, even ensembles face challenges during periods of rapid change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Preparing for the next pandemic via transfer learning from existing diseases with hierarchical multi-modal BERT: a study on COVID-19 outcome prediction

Abstract Developing prediction models for emerging infectious diseases from relatively small numbers of cases is a critical need for improving pandemic preparedness. Using COVID-19 as an exemplar, we propose a transfer learning methodology for developing predictive models from multi-modal electronic healthcare records by leveraging information from more prevalent diseases with shared clinical characteristics. Our novel hierarchical, multi-modal model ( $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ) integrates baseline risk factors from the natural language processing of clinical notes at admission, time-series measurements of biomarkers obtained from laboratory tests, and discrete diagnostic, procedure and drug codes. We demonstrate the alignment of $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s predictions with well-established clinical knowledge about COVID-19 through univariate and multivariate risk factor driven sub-cohort analysis. $${\textsc {TransMED}}$$ T R A N S MED ’s superior performance over state-of-the-art methods shows that leveraging patient data across modalities and transferring prior knowledge from similar disorders is critical for accurate prediction of patient outcomes, and this approach may serve as an important tool in the early response to future pandemics.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗