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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2018

Tunguska Workshop: Applying Modern Tools to Understand the 1908 Tunguska Impact

A one-day workshop was held at NASA Ames Research Center, January 16, 2018, to re-examine the 1908 Tunguska impact using modern computational tools, many of them developed in response to the 2013 Chelyabinsk airburst. Twelve international experts gave presentations, with another 40 attending in-person or remotely. The most likely models for Tunguska converged on an energy of 10-20 Megatons, released in an airburst at a height of about 10 km. If the Tunguska impactor was a stony asteroid similar to Chelyabinsk, the diameter was roughly 50-80m. A comparison with current understanding of the population of asteroids in this size range indicates that the interval between such events is millennia, not centuries as had been concluded previously. The primary constraints on our understanding of Tunguska are the dearth of quantitative data, not weakness of the computational models. The workshop was sponsored by the NASA Ames Asteroid Threat Assessment Project and supported the NASA Planetary Defense Coordination Office.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRS2018

Probabilistic Assessment of Tunguska-Scale Asteroid Impacts

The Tunguska meteor airburst that felled trees across >2000 sq km of Siberian forest in 1908 has been extensively studied and modeled in attempts to deduce its size, properties, and impact characteristics. However, most of the existing modeling and simulation studies have investigated a small subset of cases based on assumptions of representative densities, velocities, or other properties. In this study, we use the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to assess 50 million Tunguska-scale asteroid impacts, covering a full range of potential impactor properties. The impact cases are sampled from probabilistic distributions representing our current knowledge of asteroid properties, entry trajectories, and size frequencies, and the entry, airburst, and resulting ground damage are modeled for each case. The results provide a broader characterization of the range and relative likelihood of asteroid properties that could yield Tunguska-scale impacts. The full results of this study and a companion study on impact frequencies are pending publication in an upcoming Tunguska special edition of Icarus [1,2].

Wheeler, Lorien↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Fragment-Cloud Model for Breakup of Asteroids with Varied Internal Structures

As an asteroid descends toward Earth, it deposits energy in the atmosphere through aerodynamic drag and ablation. Asteroid impact risk assessments rely on energy deposition estimates to predict blast overpressures and ground damage that may result from an airburst, such as the one that occurred over Chelyabinsk, Russia in 2013. The rates and altitudes at which energy is deposited along the entry trajectory depend upon how the bolide fragments, which in turn depends upon its internal structure and composition. In this work, we have developed an analytic asteroid fragmentation model to assess the atmospheric energy deposition of asteroids with a range of structures and compositions. The modeling approach combines successive fragmentation of larger independent pieces with aggregate debris clouds released with each fragmentation event. The model can vary the number and masses of fragments produced, the amount of mass released as debris clouds, the size-strength scaling used to increase the robustness of smaller fragments, and other parameters. The initial asteroid body can be seeded with a distribution of independent fragment sizes amid a remaining debris mass to represent loose rubble pile conglomerations, can be given an outer regolith later, or can be defined as a coherent or fractured monolith. This approach enables the model to represent a range of breakup behaviors and reproduce detailed energy deposition features such as multiple flares due to successive burst events, high-altitude regolith blow-off, or initial disruption of rubble piles followed by more energetic breakup of the constituent boulders. These capabilities provide a means to investigate sensitivities of ground damage to potential variations in asteroid structure.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2017

Asteroid Generated Tsunami Workshop: Summary of NASA/NOAA Workshop

A two-day workshop on tsunami generated by asteroid impacts in the ocean resulted in a broad consensus that the asteroid impact tsunami threat is not as great as previously thought, that airburst events in particular are unlikely to produce significant damage by tsunami, and that the tsunami contribution to the global ensemble impact hazard is substantially less than the contribution from land impacts. The workshop, led by Ethiraj Venkatapathy and David Morrison of NASA Ames, was organized into three sessions: 1) Near-field wave generation by the impact; 2) Long distance wave propagation; 3) Damage from coastal run-up and inundation, and associated hazard. Workshop approaches were to compare simulations to understand differences in the results and gain confidence in the modeling for both formation and propagation of tsunami from asteroid impacts, and to use this information for preliminary global risk assessment. The workshop focus was on smaller asteroids (diameter less than 250m), which represent the most frequent impacts.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2016

Asteroid Fragmentation Approaches for Modeling Atmospheric Energy Deposition

During asteroid entry, energy is deposited in the atmosphere through thermal ablation and momentum-loss due to aerodynamic drag. Analytic models of asteroid entry and breakup physics are used to compute the energy deposition, which can then be compared against measured light curves and used to estimate ground damage due to airburst events. This work assesses and compares energy deposition results from four existing approaches to asteroid breakup modeling, and presents a new model that combines key elements of those approaches. The existing approaches considered include a liquid drop or "pancake" model where the object is treated as a single deforming body, and a set of discrete fragment models where the object breaks progressively into individual fragments. The new model incorporates both independent fragments and aggregate debris clouds to represent a broader range of fragmentation behaviors and reproduce more detailed light curve features. All five models are used to estimate the energy deposition rate versus altitude for the Chelyabinsk meteor impact, and results are compared with an observationally derived energy deposition curve. Comparisons show that four of the five approaches are able to match the overall observed energy deposition profile, but the features of the combined model are needed to better replicate both the primary and secondary peaks of the Chelyabinsk curve.

Modeling↗
NASA NTRS2018

Arcjet Ablation of Stony and Iron Meteorites

A test campaign was conducted placing meteorites in the 60 MW plasma Arcjet Interaction Heating Facility at NASA Ames Research Center, with the aim to achieve flight-relevant conditions for asteroid impacts in Earth's atmosphere and to provide insight into how meteoritic materials respond to extreme entry heating environments. The test conditions at heat flux of 4000 W/m2 and 140 kPa stagnation pressure are comparable to those experienced by a 30-meter diameter asteroid moving at 20 km/s velocity at 65 km altitude in the Earth's atmosphere. Test objects were a stony type H5 ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht) and an iron type IAB-MG meteorite (Campo Del Cielo), and included the terrestrial analogs Dense Flood Basalt and Fused Silica. All samples were exposed for only a few seconds in the plasma stream. Significant melt flow and vaporization was observed for both the stony and iron meteorites during exposure. Mass loss from spallation of fragments was also observed. Vapor emitted atomic lines from alkali metals and iron, but did not emit the expected MgO molecular band emissions. The meteoritic melts flowed more rapidly, indicating lower viscosity, than those of Fused Silica. The surface recession was mapped. The effective heat of ablation derived from this showed that ablation under these conditions occurred in the melt-dominated regime. Ablation parameters have an effect on ground damage estimates. A bias in ablation parameters towards the melt-dominated regime would imply that impacting asteroids survive to lower altitude, and therefore could possibly have airbursts with a larger ground damage footprint.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Issues in Asteroid-Generated Tsunamis

This report studies tsunamis caused by asteroids, both those that arise from atmospheric blast waves moving across the water surface from airburst asteroids, and those that arise when the asteroid reaches the water and forms a crater. We perform numerical experiments that compare simulations using depth-averaged models (shallow water and several forms of Boussinesq) with linearized Euler (acoustics plus gravity) and ALE hydrocode simulations. We find that neither of the depth-averaged models do a good job of initiating the tsunami, but in some cases can be used to propagate a solution generated by a higher-fidelity method. A list of our conclusions and recommendations for further study is given in Section 5.

Berger, Marsha J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Arcjet Ablation of Stony and Iron Meteorites

A test campaign was conducted placing meteorites in the 60 MW plasma Arcjet Interaction Heating Facility at NASA Ames Research Center, with the aim to achieve flight-relevant conditions for asteroid impacts in Earth's atmosphere and to provide insight into how meteoritic materials respond to extreme entry heating environments. The test conditions at heat flux of 4000 W/m2 and 140 kPa stagnation pressure are comparable to those experienced by a 30-meter diameter asteroid moving at 20 km/s velocity at 65 km altitude in the Earth's atmosphere. Test objects were a stony type H5 ordinary chondrite (Tamdakht) and an iron type IAB-MG meteorite (Campo Del Cielo), and included the terrestrial analogs Dense Flood Basalt and Fused Silica. All samples were exposed for only a few seconds in the plasma stream. Significant melt flow and vaporization was observed for both the stony and iron meteorites during exposure. Mass loss from spallation of fragments was also observed. Vapor emitted atomic lines from alkali metals and iron, but did not emit the expected MgO molecular band emissions. The meteoritic melts flowed more rapidly, indicating lower viscosity, than those of Fused Silica. The surface recession was mapped. The effective heat of ablation derived from this showed that ablation under these conditions occurred in the melt-dominated regime. Ablation parameters have an effect on ground damage estimates. A bias in ablation parameters towards the melt-dominated regime would imply that impacting asteroids survive to lower altitude, and therefore could possibly have airbursts with a larger ground damage footprint.

Arcjet↗
NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry/breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity’s four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity's four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Integrated Physics-Based Risk Model for Assessing the Asteroid Threat

Although most asteroids and other near-Earth objects (NEOs) do not pose a threat to Earth’s inhabitants, impacts from objects that are just tens of meters in diameter can cause significant damage if they occur over a populated area. This paper forms the foundation of an effort at NASA Ames Research Center to quantify these risks and identify the greatest risk-driving parameters and uncertainties. An integrated risk model that couples dynamic probabilistic simulations of strike occurrences with physics-based models of NEO impact damage factors has been developed to generate casualty estimates for a range of NEO impact properties. Currently, the model focuses on the risk due to blast overpressure damage from airbursts and impacts on land. The model is first used to reproduce results from established sources, and then is extended to perform sensitivity studies that yield greater insights into risk driving parameters. Results show that meteor strength and entry angle play a role for small to mid-size NEOs, and that accounting for the specific target location significantly affects casualty estimates and dominates the risk. Future work will continue to refine and expand the models to better characterize key impact risk factors, include additional types of threats such as tsunamis and climate effects, and ultimately support assessments of potential asteroid mitigation strategies.

Asteroid Threat↗
NASA NTRS2019

PDC19 Impact Exercise: Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) - PDC (Planetary Defense Conference) 2019 Hypothetical Exercise, NASA Ames, Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) - Characterization Summary and Updates: Assessment date: 19 April 2027; Impact date: 29 April 2027 (10 days); Earth impact probability: 100 percent, New York Area; Diameter (meters): 60 plus or minus 10 (1 minus sigma), range 26–93; Energy: mean 11 megatons, range 650 kilotons to 46 megatons; Type: S class, remaining chunk of disrupted contact binary. Risk Summary: Affected population: mean 2.4 million, range zero to 10.2 million; Likely airburst at approximately16 kilometers altitude (8 to 29 kilometers); Blast overpressure is primary hazard; Damage out to approximately 70 kilometers if larger, lower burst; Little-to-no damage if burst is small and high.

Wheeler, Lorien↗
NASA NTRS2019

Scaling Laws for Impact Craters in Water

Tsunami waves from asteroid impacts into water are of concern from asteroids in the 200 m to 1 km diameter range because this spans the range from asteroids that will likely hit the surface and not airburst, but also be small enough that global climate effects will hopefully be minimal. Current estimates of impact tsunamis depend on either hydrocode simulations or on semi-analytical models. Unfortunately there is significant disagreement between these methods. One of the main reasons for the disparity is that the semi-analytical models such as Holsapple (1993) rely on experimental impacts into deep water. However for asteroids in the 200 - 1000 m range even the deep ocean basins can appear as shallow water impacts where the crater formed in the water reaches all the way to the sea floor. Another reason for the disparity arises from the linear interpolation of data across many orders of magnitude difference between Froude number (ratio of kinetic to gravitational energy) used in the laboratory experiments and what would be seen in an asteroid impact. The Gault & Sonett (1982) experiment shot millimeter sized glass spheres into water at 1 to 6 km/s and the Olevson (1969) experiment dropped millimeter sized water drops at a few meters per second. The goal of this work was to fill in the gaps and conduct experiments and simulations at the correct Froude numbers of interest, and in both deep and shallow water, to help resolve the disparity and extend the semi-analytical models.

Robertson, Darrel↗
NASA NTRS2018

Impact-Seismic Investigations of the InSight Mission

Impact investigations will be an important aspect of the InSight mission. One of the scientific goals of the mission is a measurement of the current impact rate at Mars. Impacts will additionally inform the major goal of investigating the interior structure of Mars. In this paper, we review the current state of knowledge about seismic signals from impacts on the Earth, Moon, and laboratory experiments. We describe the generalized physical models that can be used to explain these signals. A discussion of the appropriate source time function for impacts is presented, along with spectral characteristics including the cutoff frequency and its dependence on impact momentum. Estimates of the seismic efficiency (ratio between seismic and impact energies) vary widely. Our preferred value for the seismic efficiency at Mars is 5 × 10−4, which we recommend using until we can measure it during the InSight mission, when seismic moments are not used directly. Effects of the material properties at the impact point and at the seismometer location are considered. We also discuss the processes by which airbursts and acoustic waves emanate from bolides, and the feasibility of detecting such signals. We then consider the case of impacts on Mars. A review is given of the current knowledge of present-day cratering on Mars: the current impact rate, characteristics of those impactors such as velocity and directions, and the morphologies of the craters those impactors create. Several methods of scaling crater size to impact energy are presented. The Martian atmosphere, although thin, will cause fragmentation of impactors, with implications for the resulting seismic signals. We also benchmark several different seismic modeling codes to be used in analysis of impact detections, and those codes are used to explore the seismic amplitude of impactinduced signals as a function of distance from the impact site. We predict a measurement of the current impact flux will be possible within the timeframe of the prime mission (one Mars year) with the detection of ∼ a few to several tens of impacts. However, the error bars on these predictions are large. Specific to the InSight mission, we list discriminators of seismic signals from impacts that will be used to distinguish them from marsquakes. We describe the role of the InSight Impacts Science Theme Group during mission operations, including a plan for possible night-time meteor imaging. The impacts detected by these methods during the InSight mission will be used to improve interior structure models, measure the seismic efficiency, and calculate the size frequency distribution of current impacts.

Ingrid Daubar↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗