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Reaction kinetics are studied for stratospheric chlorine atoms, OH initiated degradation of carbon-chlorine compounds, the chemical decomposition of stratospheric HCl and ClONO2. A photochemical study is made of the decomposition of O3 over the wavelength range 2935 to 3165 deg A.
The paper, "Latitude-dependent vertical mixing and the tropical thermocline in a global OGCM", was revised and published in Geophysical Research Letters. It treats the new GISS mixing scheme which includes the latitudinal dependence of the interior ocean turbulence field reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel. When implemented in the 3x3 degree NCAR CSMl OGCM [NCOMl] the new mixing scheme produces an improved, sharper equatorial thermoclines in both the Atlantic and the Pacific while simultaneously maintaining the realistic meridional overturning and northward heat transports found already with the previous GISS scheme. Also the paper "Diagnostics of the oceanic thermohaline circulation in a coupled climate model" describing earlier work on the grany was published.
Nitrous oxide (N2O) is the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) and a major ozone-depleting substance (ODS). Its main sources include anthropogenic activities (mostly agriculture) and natural emissions from ocean and soils. However, emission estimates for individual sources are highly variable due to uncertainties in N2O lifetime estimates and partitioning among sources. We derive annual global N2O emissions for 1990-2019 using NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) surface N2O observations and the N2O lifetime calculated in the NASA GEOS-5 chemistry climate model (CCM). The inferred global mean N2O emissions has gradually increased from ~15.8 TgN/yr in the early 1990s to ~17.8 TgN/yr in the 2010s. This implies that anthropogenic N2O emissions have grown rapidly from ~6.7 TgN/yr in the 1990s to about ~8.7 TgN/yr in the 2010s, a ~30% increase. With specially designed N2O isotopic tracers in 3-D GEOSCCM, we estimate that, on global average, stratospheric enrichment contributes about +7.7‰/yr, +7.6‰/yr, +8.0‰/yr to tropospheric N(sup α)-δ(sup 15), N(sup β)-δ(sup 15), and O-δ(sup 18) budget, respectively. To balance the global mean isotopic signature for pre-industrial terrestrial sources of N(sup α)-δ(sup 15) ~ 6.7‰, N(sup β)-δ(sup 15) ~ -12.6‰, O-δ(sup 18) ~ 35.4‰, our 3-D isotopic budget simulation using the GEOSCCM suggests global mean anthropogenic isotopic signatures in the recent decades are N(sup α)-δ(sup 15) ~ -18‰, N(sup β)-δ(sup 15) ~ -20‰, O-δ(sup 18) ~ 19‰. These anthropogenic isotopic estimates are significantly lighter than results from one-box atmospheric model-based estimates with the largest difference seen for N(sup β)-δ(sup 15). More surface isotopic measurements are needed to better quantify the N2O isotopic signatures.
Alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau are highly sensitive to global change and have been recognized as the sentinel of climate warming. However, anthropogenic impacts in populated area are migrating to these remote areas via transporting particulate nutrients by atmospheric deposition. Whether warming and nutrient deposition would impose additive or synergistic effects on the lake ecosystem remains largely unknown. Here, we present multi-proxy (sediment pigment and geochemistry) records during the past two centuries at the Cuoqia Lake in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. We found that the lake exhibited rapid ecological changes since 1980 AD characterized by an increase in primary productivity due to algal proliferation, with more rapid growth of green algae and diatoms. These findings are in concert with many other lakes (e.g., Moon Lake and Shade Co) in the same area, suggesting a consistent pattern of ecosystem evolution at the region scale. Statistical analyses suggested that nutrient deposition and climate warming were strongly associated with the variations in primary productivity and algae composition, exerting both individual and interactive effects. In addition, scenario analyses with a well-established process-based ecosystem model further revealed that the two factors not only individually, but also synergistically promoted the algal proliferation and community succession. Such synergy is evident in that the effect of lake warming would be more pronounced under higher nutrient deposition scenario, which is potentially due to higher temperature-driven mineralization in warmer conditions, and higher efficiency of nutrient utilization under enhanced light availability attributing to declining ice thickness and duration in cold seasons. Overall, our study proposes the existence and quantifies the synergistic impacts of climate warming and anthropogenic activities in driving the ecological changes in remote alpine lakes on the Tibetan Plateau. The lake ecological consequences driven by individual factor would be worsen by such synergy, so that we cannot predict the lake ecosystem trajectory in the future based on each factor separately, and more efforts than previously expected would be needed for the lake restoration and management.
ERTS-1 imagery was surveyed for cases of anthropogenic impact, similar to that in the Sinai, evidenced by the Sinai/Negev demarcation line. Reflectivities in several such cases were analyzed using ERTS computer compatible tapes. Sharp increases of surface reflectivity show the severe impact of overgrazing found in several places around the world. Agricultural cultivation can also result in pronounced change of reflectivities, as evidenced by the Montana, USA/Canada demarcation line. Such processes have probably been going on since prehistoric times, increasing with the human population and with the population of the grazing herds.
The impact of anthropogenic activities on the SO2 and sulfate aerosol levels over the Pacific region is examined in the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. We focus on the analysis of the data from the NASA Pacific Exploratory Missions (PEM) over the western North Pacific and the tropical Pacific. These missions include PEM-West A in September-October 1991, when the Asian outflow was at the minimum but the upper atmosphere was heavily influenced by the Pinatubo volcanic eruption, and PEM-West B in March-April 1994 when the Asian outflow was at the maximum, and PEM-Tropics A in August-September at a region relatively free of direct anthropogenic influences. Specifically, we will examine the relative importance of anthropogenic, volcanic and biogenic sources to the SO2 and sulfate concentrations over the Pacific, and quantify the processes controlling the distributions of SO2 and sulfate in both the boundary layer and the free troposphere. We will also assess the global impact of SO2 emission in Asia on the sulfate aerosol loading.
This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. Evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. Simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5-7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year-1. This large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.
The Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the longest-known anthropogenic impact on weather and climate. Urbanization in the 21st century has led to an amplification in UHI effects, which poses environmental concerns as well as public health risks. While the UHI is often observed in larger metropolitan areas, it is less studied in smaller or moderately-sized cities that are still developing. The population of the Augusta Metropolitan Area (AMA) has increased over 10% in the last decade. Because of increasing urban sprawl in conjunction with overall increased anthropogenic warming, it is critical to define Augusta’s UHI impact and model how it could change in the future.
Data Sources: NASA Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) (O3 profiles and columns), NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Chemistry and Transport Model (calculated O3depletion), and MERRA Tropopause Heights. Technical Description of Figures: The left graphics show MLS northern hemisphere stratospheric column ozone on Feb. 1, 2016. Very low columns are seen over the UK and Europe (<225 DU, inside dashed circle). The lower graphic shows the GMI-calculated O3 depletion. It's very small, suggesting the low O3 does not indicate significant depletion. The right graphics show how the high tropopause height in this region explains the observed low ozone. The lower panel shows that the high tropopause on Feb. 1 lifts the O3 profile compared to a typical profile found earlier in winter. This motion lifts the profile to lower pressures thus reducing the total column. The GMI Model shows only 4 Dobson Units (DU) of O3 depletion even though the column is more than 100 DU lower than one month earlier. Scientific significant and societal relevance: To quantitatively understand anthropogenic impacts to the stratospheric ozone layer, we must be able to distinguish between low ozone caused by ozone depleting substances and that caused by natural dynamical variability in the atmosphere. Observations and realistic simulations of atmospheric composition are both required in order to separate natural and anthropogenic ozone variability.
This study examined long-term, natural (i.e., excluding anthropogenic impacts) variability of groundwater storage worldwide. Groundwater storage changes were estimated by forcing three global-scale hydrological models with three 50+ year meteorological datasets. evaluation using in situ groundwater observations from the U.S. and terrestrial water storage derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate experiment (GRACe) satellites showed that these models reasonably represented inter-annual variability of water storage, as indicated by correlations greater than 0.5 in most regions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis revealed influences of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on global groundwater storage. simulated groundwater storage, including its global average, exhibited trends generally consistent with that of precipitation. Global total (natural) groundwater storage decreased over the past 5–7 decades with modeled rates ranging from 0.01 to 2.18 mm year−1. this large range can be attributed in part to groundwater’s low frequency (inter-decadal) variability, which complicates identification of real long-term trends even within a 50+ year time series. Results indicate that non-anthropogenic variability in groundwater storage is substantial, making knowledge of it fundamental to quantifying direct human impacts on groundwater storage.
Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERONET at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.
Aerosol climate forcing is one of the largest uncertainties in assessing the anthropogenic impact on the global climate system. This uncertainty arises from the poorly quantified aerosol sources, especially black carbon emissions, our limited knowledge of aerosol mixing state and optical properties, and the consequences of intercontinental transport of aerosols and their precursors. Here we use a global model GOCART to simulate atmospheric aerosols, including sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, dust, and sea salt, from anthropogenic, .biomass burning, and natural sources. We compare the model calculated aerosol extinction and absorption with those quantities from the ground-based sun photometer measurements from AERON" at several different wavelengths and the field observations from ACE-Asia, and model calculated total aerosol optical depth and fine mode fractions with the MODIS satellite retrieval. We will also estimate the intercontinental transport of pollution and dust aerosols from their source regions to other areas in different seasons.
Abstract Multiple evolutionary processes influence genome‐wide allele frequencies and quantifying effects of genetic drift, and multiple forms of selection remain challenging in natural populations. Here, we investigate variation at major effect loci in contrast to patterns of neutral drift across a wide collection of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) populations that have declined in abundance due to anthropogenic impacts. Whole‐genome resequencing of 74 populations of steelhead revealed genome‐wide patterns (~8 million SNPs) consistent with expected neutral population structure. However, allelic variation at major effect loci associated with adult migration timing (chromosome 28: GREB1L / ROCK1 ) and age at maturity (chromosome 25: SIX6 ) reflected how selection has acted on phenotypic variation in contrast with neutral structure. Variation at major effect loci was influenced by evolutionary processes with differing signals between the strongly divergent Coastal and Inland lineages, while allele frequencies within and among populations within the Inland lineage have been driven by local natural selection as well as recent anthropogenic influences. Recent anthropogenic effects appeared to have influenced the frequency of major effect alleles including artificial selection for specific traits in hatchery stocks with subsequent gene flow into natural populations. Selection from environmental factors at various scales has also likely influenced variation for major effect alleles. These results reveal evolutionary mechanisms that influence allele frequencies at major effect loci that are critical for conservation of phenotypic traits and life history variation of this protected species.
Fires affect the composition of the atmosphere and Earth’s radiation balance by emitting a suite of reactive gases and particles. An interactive fire module in an Earth system model (ESM) allows us to study the natural and anthropogenic drivers, feedbacks, and interactions of open fires. To do so, we have developed pyrE, the NASA GISS (Goddard Institute for Space Studies) interactive fire emissions *module. The pyrE module is driven by environmental variables like flammability and cloud-to-ground lightning, calculated by the GISS ModelE ESM, and parameterized by anthropogenic impacts based on population density data. Fire emissions are generated from the flaming phase in pyrE (active fires). Using pyrE, we examine fire occurrence, regional fire suppression, burned area, fire emissions, and how it all affects atmospheric composition. To do so, we evaluate pyrE by comparing it to satellite-based datasets of fire count, burned area, fire emissions, and aerosol optical depth (AOD). We demonstrate pyrE’s ability to simulate the daily and seasonal cycles of open fires and resulting emissions. Our results indicate that interactive fire emissions are biased low by 32 %–42 %, depending on emitted species, compared to the GFED4s (Global Fire Emissions Database) inventory. The bias in emissions drives underestimation in column densities, which is diluted by natural and anthropogenic emissions sources and production and loss mechanisms. Regionally, the resulting AOD of a simulation with interactive fire emissions is underestimated mostly over Indonesia compared to a simulation with GFED4s emissions and to MODIS AOD. In other parts of the world pyrE’s performance in terms of AOD is marginal to a simulation with prescribed fire emissions.
A primary goal of the NASA Tropospheric Chemistry Program (TCP) is to "contribute substantially to scientific understanding of human impacts on the global troposphere". In order to analyze global or regional trends and factors of the troposphere chemistry, for example, its oxidation capacity or composition, a continuous global/regional data coverage as well as model simulations are needed. The Global Tropospheric Experiment (GTE), a major component of the TCP, provides data vital to these questions via aircraft measurement of key trace chemical species in various remote regions of the world. Another component in NASA's effort are satellite projects for exploration of tropospheric chemistry and dynamics. A unique data product is the Tropospheric Ozone Residual (TOR) utilizing global tropospheric ozone data. Another key research tool are simulation studies of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics for the theoretical understanding of the atmosphere, the extrapolation of observed trends, and for sensitivity studies assessing a changing anthropogenic impact to air chemistry and climate. In the context with model simulations, field data derived from satellites or (airborne) field missions are needed for two purposes: 1. To initialize and validate model simulations, and 2., to interpret field data by comparison to model simulation results in order to analyze global or regional trends and deviations from standard tropospheric chemistry and transport conditions as defined by the simulations. Currently, there is neither a sufficient global data coverage available nor are existing well established global circulation models. The NASA LARC CTM model is currently not yet in a state to accomplish a sufficient tropospheric chemistry simulation, so that the current research under this cooperative agreement focuses on utilizing field data products for direct interpretation. They will be also available for model testing and a later interpretation with a finally utilized model.
Evaluation of goals is crucial for effective management to conserve viable and diverse fish populations and to support harvest. Management of wild Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha in the Snake River basin exemplifies the struggle to meet fisheries goals. Considering contemporary production of juvenile emigrants, it is imperative to determine the survival from emigration to adult ( S e‐a ) required to meet abundance goals. Increased anthropogenic impact on spawning and rearing habitats leads to higher S e‐a required to attain goals. Wilderness populations exhibit viability and could sustain fisheries with S e‐a lower than required elsewhere. Conversely, populations targeted for habitat restoration demand higher S e‐a to fulfill goals, indicating a need to enhance egg‐to‐smolt survival. However, S e‐a has fallen below the threshold needed for replacement in all populations, even at current low abundances. Despite these challenges, most populations still possess the potential to achieve abundance goals, emphasizing the importance of strategic interventions to bolster their resilience.
Understanding anthropogenic impacts on water storage and water flow pathways in catchments is an ongoing challenge in hydrology. Here, we study the dynamics of subsurface storage and residence time of water in a catchment in Berkeley, California, that is within a regional park but contains diverse land use within its perimeter, including a periodically irrigated golf course. Our study combines several isotopic tracers with water budget data to examine sources of water in a stream draining the site. Irrigation water, applied to a small area of the watershed, is a minor component of the water budget. However, geochemical tracers reveal that irrigation water is a significant fraction of stream flow downstream of the golf course during baseflow and during precipitation events. Isotopic tracers indicate that the watershed has a preference to release young water for stream flow generation, resulting in contrasting tritium ages for stream water and groundwater of 1.3 ± 0.5 year and 8.2 ± 1.7 year, respectively. We determined that the older water is a very small component (0.7%) of the stream water in the tail of an assumed exponential distribution. We used the seasonal variation of stable water isotopes in precipitation and stream water over two water years to explain the damping of the isotopic signature of stream water, which yields information about the catchment's response to the input signal. In conclusion, the methods described here may be applicable to other urban or suburban headwater catchments in areas with a component of non-natural recharge from, for example, leaky infrastructure, storm water routing or dry season irrigation.
Abstract We analyzed and compared productivity and survival rates of populations of stream-type Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha from the upper and middle ranges of their distribution in the Columbia River basin. These two groups of populations undergo vastly different exposures during migration through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Declines of the Snake River populations, listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, have been associated with the development and operation of the FCRPS. In contrast, John Day River stream-type Chinook Salmon populations, which were less affected by the FCRPS, have declined to a lesser extent and are not listed. Smolt-to-adult survival rates (SARs) accounted for a majority of the variation in life cycle survival rates of Snake River Chinook Salmon. Productivity declined to 13% and 44% of historical productivity levels for Snake River and John Day River populations, respectively. A synthesis of previous studies contrasting anthropogenic impacts between the two regions supports the conclusion that FCRPS impacts explain the large difference in population productivity. Our results suggest that SARs of 4% would result in an expected productivity of up to 70% of historical levels (a SAR level consistent with regional restoration objectives). The SARs have been shown to be highly influenced by conditions within the FCRPS (e.g., water velocity and passage through dam powerhouses). Marine conditions also influence SARs; however, meaningful management actions are only available to affect conditions within the FCRPS. Given the importance of SARs to overall life cycle productivity, recovery and restoration strategies need to prioritize actions that have potential to substantially increase SARs by addressing the significant impacts of main-stem dams. This study highlights the importance of considering river management options in the face of increasingly variable and warming ocean conditions.