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The mutual refinement theory, a method for refining world models in a reactive system, is described. The method detects failures, explains their causes, and repairs the approximate models which cause the failures. The approach focuses on using one approximate model to refine another.
We have constructed a series of models of Alpha Centauri A and Alpha Centauri B for the purposes of testing the effects of convection modeling both by means of the mixing-length theory (MLT), and by means of parameterization of energy fluxes based upon numerical simulations of turbulent compressible convection. We demonstrate that while MLT, through its adjustable parameter alpha, can be used to match any given values of luminosities and radii, our treatment of convection, which lacks any adjustable parameters, makes specific predictions of stellar radii. Since the predicted radii of the Alpha Centauri system fall within the errors of the observed radii, our treatment of convection is applicable to other stars in the H-R diagram in addition to the sun. A second set of models is constructed using MLT, adjusting alpha to yield not the 'measured' radii but, instead, the radii predictions of our revised treatment of convection. We conclude by assessing the appropriateness of using a single value of alpha to model a wide variety of stars.
Fluctuations are observed during occultations of both stars and spacecraft by planetary atmospheres. Existing treatments of spacecraft scintillations ignore a major effect unique to occultations: the severe flattening of the Fresnel zone or source image by defocusing. Other large effects, due to 'saturation' of the scintillation, have also been ignored. The deeper portions of atmospheric temperature and density profiles inferred from occultation data are seriously in error if other planets' atmospheres are as turbulent as our own. Thus, profiles obtained from entry probes (e.g., the Soviet Venera series) are probably more accurate than those from radio occultation (Mariner 5 and 10) data. Scintillation greatly reduces the information obtainable from occultation observations; much of the detail attributed to layering in published profiles is probably due to aliasing of turbulence. This paper gives an approximately correct theoretical treatment that is a substantial improvement over published theories, and shows how a more accurate theory could be constructed. Some methods for a more accurate determination of atmospheric structure are proposed.
Proposal of a new concept of model testing which makes use of imperfect models and is based on the heuristic argument of representing the error states in a multidimensional Euclidean space when the errors in the modeling parameter are sufficiently small. By a separation of these errors into positive and negative groups, and from a consideration of the error paths in the hyperspaces, it is shown that the global effect of these errors may be evaluated with a good degree of approximation. Conditions under which the procedure would yield satisfactory results are discussed. To test the usefulness of the theory a computer experiment was conducted for the prediction of both transient and steady state thermal behavior of a hypothetical spacecraft using perfect, as well as imperfect, models.
The basic concepts of influencing boundary layers are summarized, especially the prevention of flow detachment and the reduction of frictional resistance. A mathematical analysis of suction through a slit is presented with two parameters, for thickness and for shape of the boundary layer, being introduced to specify the flow's velocity profile behind the slit. An approximation of the shape parameter produces a useful formula, which can be used to determine the most favorable position of the slit. An aerodynamic example is given.
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Prediction-comparison system for data compression, noting nonlinear error feedback and advantage of closed-loop predictor
Transverse shear deformation and rotary inertia effects in vibrating beams
Scintillations observed during occultations of both stars and spacecraft by planetary atmospheres are discussed theoretically. The effects of severe flattening of the Fresnel zone or source image by defocusing on occultations are presented, along with temporal power spectra. Other topics discussed include atmospheric turbulence, saturation of scintillation, effects of saturation on occultation curves, and some methods for a more accurate determination of atmospheric structure.
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The problem of treating convective energy transport without MLT approximations is approached here by formulating the results of numerical simulations of convection in terms of energy fluxes. This revised treatment of convective transport can be easily incorporated within existing stellar structure codes. As an example, the technique is applied to the sun. The treatment does not include any free parameters, making the models extremely sensitive to the accuracy of the treatments of opacities, chemical abundances, treatments of the solar atmosphere, and the equation of state.
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Comparison of panel flutter results from approximate aerodynamic theory with results from exact inviscid theory and experiment
This report develops: (1) a refined approximate theory for the static and dynamic analyses of finite, laminated, composite, circular cylindrical shells with general boundary conditions; (2) an exact three-dimensional analysis of simply supported, laminated, composite, circular cylindrical shells, and (3) a thin-shell theory for laminated, composite, circular cylindrical shells. In the refined approximate theory the displacements are assumed piecewise linear across the thickness and the effects of transverse shear deformations and transverse normal stress are included. A variational approach is followed to obtain the governing differential equations and boundary conditions. A general solution of the governing differential equations is also presented. The results obtained by using the refined approximate theory and the thin-shell theory are compared with the exact results for the case of free vibrations of simply supported, laminated, composite, circular cylindrical shells. The refined approximate theory is very accurate, even for thick shells with short nodal distances, whereas thin-shell theory is reasonably accurate only for thin shells at moderate nodal distances and wave number less than 2.
Approximate minimum mean square error estimates of Markovian state vector observed in nonlinearly imbedded stochastic signal, noting analog communication theory
The paper presents a methodology for quantifying, propagating, and managing the uncertainty in the data required to initialize computer simulations of complex phenomena. The purpose of the methodology is to permit the quantitative assessment of a certification level to be associated with the predictions from the simulations, as well as the design of a data acquisition strategy to achieve a target level of certification. The value of a methodology that can address the above issues is obvious, specially in light of the trend in the availability of computational resources, as well as the trend in sensor technology. These two trends make it possible to probe physical phenomena both with physical sensors, as well as with complex models, at previously inconceivable levels. With these new abilities arises the need to develop the knowledge to integrate the information from sensors and computer simulations. This is achieved in the present work by tracing both activities back to a level of abstraction that highlights their commonalities, thus allowing them to be manipulated in a mathematically consistent fashion. In particular, the mathematical theory underlying computer simulations has long been associated with partial differential equations and functional analysis concepts such as Hilbert spares and orthogonal projections. By relying on a probabilistic framework for the modeling of data, a Hilbert space framework emerges that permits the modeling of coefficients in the governing equations as random variables, or equivalently, as elements in a Hilbert space. This permits the development of an approximation theory for probabilistic problems that parallels that of deterministic approximation theory. According to this formalism, the solution of the problem is identified by its projection on a basis in the Hilbert space of random variables, as opposed to more traditional techniques where the solution is approximated by its first or second-order statistics. The present representation, in addition to capturing significantly more information than the traditional approach, facilitates the linkage between different interacting stochastic systems as is typically observed in real-life situations.
The nonlinear discrete vortex method is extended to treat the problem of asymmetric flows past a wing with leading edge separation, including steady and unsteady flows. The problem is formulated in terms of a body fixed frame of reference and the nonlinear-discrete vortex method is modified accordingly. Although the method is general, only examples of flows past delta wings are presented due to the availability of experimental data as well as approximate theories. Comparison of results with experimental results for a delta wing undergoing a steady rolling motion at zero angle of attack demonstrate the superiority of the present method over existing approximate theories in obtaining highly accurate loads. Numerical results for yawed wings at large angles of attack are also presented. In all cases, total load coefficients, pressure distributions, and shapes of the free vortex sheets are shown.