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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2016

Defining Baconian Probability for Use in Assurance Argumentation

The use of assurance cases (e.g., safety cases) in certification raises questions about confidence in assurance argument claims. Some researchers propose to assess confidence in assurance cases using Baconian induction. That is, a writer or analyst (1) identifies defeaters that might rebut or undermine each proposition in the assurance argument and (2) determines whether each defeater can be dismissed or ignored and why. Some researchers also propose denoting confidence using the counts of defeaters identified and eliminated-which they call Baconian probability-and performing arithmetic on these measures. But Baconian probabilities were first defined as ordinal rankings which cannot be manipulated arithmetically. In this paper, we recount noteworthy definitions of Baconian induction, review proposals to assess confidence in assurance claims using Baconian probability, analyze how these comport with or diverge from the original definition, and make recommendations for future practice.

Graydon, Patrick J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

A Primer on Argument (Overarching Properties Edition)

The purpose of this document is to establish for the Overarching Properties Working Group (OPWG) a common understanding of the terms, concepts, principles, and uses of argument. It emphasizes the practical over the theoretical and the simple over the complicated.

argument↗
NASA NTRS2021

A Primer on Argument

The purpose of this document is to provide a common understanding of terms, concepts, principles, and uses of argument. It emphasizes the practical over the theoretical and the simple over the complicated.

argument↗
DOE OSTI2022

Local Group timing argument and virial theorem mass estimators from cosmological simulations

ABSTRACT We identify Local Group (LG) analogues in the IllustrisTNG cosmological simulation, and use these to study two-mass estimators for the LG: One based on the timing argument (TA) and one based on the virial theorem (VT). Including updated measurements of the Milky Way-M31 tangential velocity and the cosmological constant, we show that the TA mass estimator slightly overestimates the true median LG-mass, though the ratio of the TA to the true mass is consistent at the approximate 90 per cent c.l.. These are in broad agreement with previous results using dark matter-only simulations. We show that the VT estimator better estimates the true LG-mass, though there is a larger scatter in the virial mass to true mass ratio relative to the corresponding ratio for the TA. We attribute the broader scatter in the VT estimator to several factors, including the predominantly radial orbits for LG satellite galaxies, which differs from the VT assumption of isotropic orbits. With the systematic uncertainties we derive, the updated measurements of the LG mass at 90 per cent c.l. are $4.75_{-2.41}^{+2.22} \times 10^{12}$ M⊙ from the TA and $2.0_{-1.5}^{+2.1} \times 10^{12}$ M⊙ from the VT. We consider the LMC’s effect on the TA and VT LG mass estimates, and do not find exact LMC–MW–M31 analogues in the Illustris simulations. However, in LG simulations with satellite companions as massive as the LMC, we find that the effect on the TA and VT estimators is small, though we need further studies on a larger sample of LMC–MW–M31 systems to confirm these results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

RECONCILING AGN-STAR FORMATION, THE SOLTAN ARGUMENT, AND MEIER’S PARADOX

We provide a theoretical context for understanding the recent work of Kalfountzou et al. showing that star formation is enhanced at lower optical luminosity in radio-loud quasars. Our proposal for coupling the assumption of collimated FRII quasar-jet-induced star formation with lower accretion optical luminosity also explains the observed jet power peak in active galaxies at higher redshift compared to the peak in accretion power, doing so in a way that predicts the existence of a family of radio-quiet active galactic nuclei associated with rapidly spinning supermassive black holes at low redshift, as mounting observations suggest. The relevance of this work lies in its promise to explain the observed cosmological evolution of accretion power, jet power, and star formation in a way that is both compatible with the Soltan argument and resolves the so-called “Meier Paradox.”.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1976

New treatment of the critical argument in resonance problems

Traditional methods for isolating the critical argument in Hamiltonian mechanics involve the introduction of a special set of action variables which are both complicated in form and arbitrary in nature. The new variables are in general obscure in their interpretation. This paper introduces a new canonical system corresponding to the original one, but with one more degree of freedom, in which all the variables of the original Hamiltonian can be treated on the same footing. It appears to have significant advantages for machine calculations.

Jefferys, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Eccentricity and argument of perigee control for orbits with repeat ground tracks

In order to gain an understanding into the problem of eccentricity (e) and argument of perigee (omega) control for TOPEX/Poseidon, the two cases where the highest latitude crossing time and one of the equator crossings are held constant are investigated. Variations in e and omega cause a significant effect on the satellite's ground-track repeatability. Maintaining e and omega near their frozen values will minimize this variation. Analytical expressions are found to express this relationship while keeping an arbitrary point of the ground track fixed. The initial offset of the ground track from its nominal path determines the subsequent evolution of e and omega about their frozen values. This long-term behavior is numerically determined using an earth gravitational field including the first 17 zonal harmonics. The numerical results are plotted together with the analytical constraints to see if the later values of e and omega cause unacceptable deviation in the ground track.

Vincent, Mark A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Argumentation for coordinating shared activities

an increasing need for space missions to be able to collaboratively (and competitively) develop plans both within and across missions. In addition, interacting spacecraft that interleave onboard planning and execution must reach consensus on their commitments to each other prior to execution. In domains where missions have varying degrees of interaction and different constraints on communication and computation, the missions will require different coordination protocols in order to efficiently reach consensus with in their imposed deadlines. We describe a Shared Activity Coordination (SHAC) framework that provides a decentralized algorithm for negotiating the scheduling of shared activities over the lifetimes of multiple agents and a foundation for customizing protocols for negotiating planner interactions. We investigate variations of a few simple protocols based on argumentation and distributed constraints satisfaction techniques and evaluate their abilities to reach consistent solutions according to computation, time, and communication costs in an abstract domain where spacecraft propose joint measurements.

Mars↗
NASA NTRS2015

Argument-Based Airworthiness Assurance of Small UAS

Presently, there are three avenues by which Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) operations are authorized in the U.S. National Airspace System (NAS): obtaining either (i) a certificate of authorization (COA), or (ii) a special airworthiness certificate (SAC) in either the experimental, or the restricted category, or (iii) an exemption from an airworthiness certificate together with a civil COA. The first is meant primarily for public entities, such as NASA; the remaining two are the only available means for civil UAS operations. Recently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has also proposed a regulatory framework targeted for certain small UAS, specifically those weighing 55 pounds or less, although final rulemaking remains pending. We have previously shown how an assurance case can aggregate heterogeneous reasoning and safety evidence, with application to UAS safety. In this paper, we describe how assurance cases can serve as a common framework to justify overall system safety, unifying both operational aspects and airworthiness, in particular system design assurance. We also show how this approach can coexist with, and augment, existing safety analysis processes and best-practices, by transforming the artifacts they produce into structured assurance arguments. To illustrate the applicability and utility of our approach, we have been applying it for the design assurance of an unmanned rotorcraft system, intended for precision agriculture operations, as part of the NASA Unmanned Aircraft System (UAS) Integration in the National Airspace System (NAS) project.

Rotocraft↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Safety Argumentation Schools of Thought

Safety cases have been produced and researched for decades. Definitions of `safety case' agree on both the need to generate suitable evidence and the central role of argument. But the relevant literature seems to exhibit multiple schools of thought that are largely unrecognized and somewhat at odds with each other. This paper presents preliminary results from research to identify and characterize the safety case schools of thought so as to reduce confusion and discord in research and practice.

Graydon, Patrick John↗