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NASA NTRS2012

Improvement to Airport Throughput Using Intelligent Arrival Scheduling and an Expanded Planning Horizon

The first phase of this study investigated the amount of time a flight can be delayed or expedited within the Terminal Airspace using only speed changes. The Arrival Capacity Calculator analysis tool was used to predict the time adjustment envelope for standard descent arrivals and then for CDA arrivals. Results ranged from 0.77 to 5.38 minutes. STAR routes were configured for the ACES simulation, and a validation of the ACC results was conducted comparing the maximum predicted time adjustments to those seen in ACES. The final phase investigated full runway-to-runway trajectories using ACES. The radial distance used by the arrival scheduler was incrementally increased from 50 to 150 nautical miles (nmi). The increased Planning Horizon radii allowed the arrival scheduler to arrange, path stretch, and speed-adjust flights to more fully load the arrival stream. The average throughput for the high volume portion of the day increased from 30 aircraft per runway for the 50 nmi radius to 40 aircraft per runway for the 150 nmi radius for a traffic set representative of high volume 2018. The recommended radius for the arrival scheduler s Planning Horizon was found to be 130 nmi, which allowed more than 95% loading of the arrival stream.

Glaab, Patricia C.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Verification of Real-Time WSA-ENLIL+Cone Simulations of CME Arrival-Time at the CCMC from 2010 to 2016

The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-ENLIL+Cone model is used extensively in space weather operations world-wide to model coronal mass ejection (CME) propagation. As such, it is important to assess its performance. We present validation results of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) and executed in real-time by the CCMC space weather team. CCMC uses the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model to predict CME arrivals at NASA missions throughout the inner heliosphere. In this work we compare model predicted CME arrival-times to in situ interplanetary coronal mass ejection leading edge measurements at Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Ahead (STEREO-A), Solar TErrestrial RElations Observatory-Behind (STEREO-B), and Earth (Wind and ACE) for simulations completed between March 2010 and December 2016 (over 1,800 CMEs). We report hit, miss, false alarm, and correct rejection statistics for all three locations. For all predicted CME arrivals, the hit rate is 0.5, and the false alarm rate is 0.1. For the 273 events where the CME was predicted to arrive at Earth, STEREO-A, or STEREO-B, and was actually observed (hit event), the mean absolute arrival-time prediction error was 10.4 +/- 0.9 h, with a tendency to early prediction error of -4.0 h. We show the dependence of the arrival-time error on CME input parameters. We also explore the impact of the multi-spacecraft observations used to initialize the model CME inputs by comparing model verification results before and after the STEREO-B communication loss (since September 2014) and STEREO-A sidelobe operations (August 2014- December 2015). There is an increase of 1.7 h in the CME arrival time error during single, or limited two-viewpoint periods, compared to the three-spacecraft viewpoint period. This trend would apply to a future space weather mission at L5 or L4 as another coronagraph viewpoint to reduce CME arrival time errors compared to a single L1 viewpoint.

MHD / modeling / validation / forecasting / corona↗

NASA NTRS2014

Precision Arrival Scheduling for Tactical Reconfiguration

This research adapts the concept of precision arrival scheduling to accommodate reconfiguration operations between two sets of fixed arrival routes modeled for Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD). Integrated fixed path routing from en-route to runways was modeled for ORD's top two peak traffic configurations, as well as transition routing between the two configurations. A first-come-first-served multi-point scheduler was adapted to the reconfiguration problem by prioritizing the rescheduling of aircraft within the terminal airspace at the time of reconfiguration notification. Arrival rescheduling was then tested for a range of arrival rates and reconfiguration notification lead-times in fasttime simulation. Reconfigurations with lead-times as short as 10 minutes at a nominal static configuration arrival rate (~25 arrivals per quarter hour) could be accommodated with little impact to throughput. However, as lead-time shortened below 25 minutes, individual aircraft efficiency quickly degraded due to extra flight time at lower altitude and speed. In general, first-come-first-served arrival scheduling on fixed routing for this sample reconfiguration problem is promising if at least 10-15 minutes lead-time is given before the reconfiguration is in effect.

airport reconfiguration↗

NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System for Performance-Based Navigation Arrivals

The growth of global demand for air transportation has put increasing strain on the nation's air traffic management system. To relieve this strain, the International Civil Aviation Organization has urged all nations to adopt Performance-Based Navigation (PBN), which can help to reduce air traffic congestion, decrease aviation fuel consumption, and protect the environment. NASA has developed a Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system that can support increased use of PBN during periods of high traffic, while supporting fuel-efficient, continuous descent approaches. In the original development of this system, arrival aircraft are assigned fuel-efficient Area Navigation (RNAV) Standard Terminal Arrival Routes before their initial descent from cruise, with routing defined to a specific runway. The system also determines precise schedules for these aircraft that facilitate continuous descent through the assigned routes. To meet these schedules, controllers are given a set of advisory tools to precisely control aircraft. The TAPSS system has been evaluated in a series of human-in-the-loop (HITL) air traffic simulations during 2010 and 2011. Results indicated increased airport arrival throughput up to 10 over current operations, and maintained fuel-efficient aircraft decent profiles from the initial descent to landing with reduced controller workload. This paper focuses on results from a joint NASA and FAA HITL simulation conducted in 2012. Due to the FAA rollout of the advance terminal area PBN procedures at mid-sized airports first, the TAPSS system was modified to manage arrival aircraft as they entered Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON). Dallas-Love Field airport (DAL) was selected by the FAA as a representative mid-sized airport within a constrained TRACON airspace due to the close proximity of a major airport, in this case Dallas-Ft Worth International Airport, one of the busiest in the world. To address this constraint, RNAV routes and Required Navigation Performance with the particular capability known as Radius-to-Fix (RNP-RF) approaches to a short final were used. The purpose of this simulation was to get feedback on how current operations could benefit with the TAPSS system and also to evaluate the efficacy of the advisory tools to support the broader use of PBN in the US National Airspace System. For this NASA-FAA joint experiment, an Air Traffic Control laboratory at NASA Ames was arranged to simulate arrivals into DAL in Instrument Meteorological Conditions utilizing parallel dependent approaches, with two feeder positions that handed off traffic to one final position. Four FAA controllers participated, alternately covering these three positions. All participants were Full-Performance Level terminal controllers and members of the National Air Traffic Controllers Association. During the simulation, PBN arrival operations were compared and contrasted in three conditions. They were the Baseline, where none of the TAPSS systems TRACON controller decision support advisories were provided, the Limited Advisories, reflecting the existing but dormant capabilities of the current terminal automation equipment with providing a subset of the TAPSS systems advisories; numerical delay, landing sequence, and runway assignment information, and the Full Advisories, with providing the following in addition to the ones in the Limited condition; trajectory slot markers, timelines of estimated times of arrivals and sched

Performance based navigation↗

NASA NTRS2011

Estimating Controller Intervention Probabilities for Optimized Profile Descent Arrivals

Simulations of arrival traffic at Dallas/Fort-Worth and Denver airports were conducted to evaluate incorporating scheduling and separation constraints into advisories that define continuous descent approaches. The goal was to reduce the number of controller interventions required to ensure flights maintain minimum separation distances of 5 nmi horizontally and 1000 ft vertically. It was shown that simply incorporating arrival meter fix crossing-time constraints into the advisory generation could eliminate over half of the all predicted separation violations and more than 80% of the predicted violations between two arrival flights. Predicted separation violations between arrivals and non-arrivals were 32% of all predicted separation violations at Denver and 41% at Dallas/Fort-Worth. A probabilistic analysis of meter fix crossing-time errors is included which shows that some controller interventions will still be required even when the predicted crossing-times of the advisories are set to add a 1 or 2 nmi buffer above the minimum in-trail separation of 5 nmi. The 2 nmi buffer was shown to increase average flight delays by up to 30 sec when compared to the 1 nmi buffer, but it only resulted in a maximum decrease in average arrival throughput of one flight per hour.

continous descent arrivals↗

NASA NTRS2019

ATD-3 Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) Operational Concept, V2.0

NASA's Airspace Technology Demonstration-3 (ATD-3) is the applied traffic flow management activity, and third in the series of ATD projects. ATD-3 provides a suite of en route automation tools, both ground and flight-deck based, that focus on improving the efficiency of en route operation from initial cruise to arrival into the Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON). Dynamic Routes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) is a technology in the ATD-3 suite that is designed to provide Traffic Managers with a capability to efficiently manage arrival traffic flow and help sustain metering operations when weather is impacting arrivals into major airports. DRAW mitigates convective weather impact on arrival metering operations by providing tools to Traffic Managers that enable efficient reroutes free of convective weather conflicts, and integrated with the arrival metering schedule(s).

terminal airspace↗

NASA NTRS2004

A Fast-Time Simulation Tool for Analysis of Airport Arrival Traffic

The basic objective of arrival sequencing in air traffic control automation is to match traffic demand and airport capacity while minimizing delays. The performance of an automated arrival scheduling system, such as the Traffic Management Advisor developed by NASA for the FAA, can be studied by a fast-time simulation that does not involve running expensive and time-consuming real-time simulations. The fast-time simulation models runway configurations, the characteristics of arrival traffic, deviations from predicted arrival times, as well as the arrival sequencing and scheduling algorithm. This report reviews the development of the fast-time simulation method used originally by NASA in the design of the sequencing and scheduling algorithm for the Traffic Management Advisor. The utility of this method of simulation is demonstrated by examining the effect on delays of altering arrival schedules at a hub airport.

Erzberger, Heinz↗

NASA NTRS2012

Anchorage Arrival Scheduling Under Off-Nominal Weather Conditions

Weather can cause flight diversions, passenger delays, additional fuel consumption and schedule disruptions at any high volume airport. The impacts are particularly acute at the Ted Stevens Anchorage International Airport in Anchorage, Alaska due to its importance as a major international portal. To minimize the impacts due to weather, a multi-stage scheduling process is employed that is iteratively executed, as updated aircraft demand and/or airport capacity data become available. The strategic scheduling algorithm assigns speed adjustments for flights that originate outside of Anchorage Center to achieve the proper demand and capacity balance. Similarly, an internal departure-scheduling algorithm assigns ground holds for pre-departure flights that originate from within Anchorage Center. Tactical flight controls in the form of airborne holding are employed to reactively account for system uncertainties. Real-world scenarios that were derived from the January 16, 2012 Anchorage visibility observations and the January 12, 2012 Anchorage arrival schedule were used to test the initial implementation of the scheduling algorithm in fast-time simulation experiments. Although over 90% of the flights in the scenarios arrived at Anchorage without requiring any delay, pre-departure scheduling was the dominant form of control for Anchorage arrivals. Additionally, tactical scheduling was used extensively in conjunction with the pre-departure scheduling to reactively compensate for uncertainties in the arrival demand. For long-haul flights, the strategic scheduling algorithm performed best when the scheduling horizon was greater than 1,000 nmi. With these long scheduling horizons, it was possible to absorb between ten and 12 minutes of delay through speed control alone. Unfortunately, the use of tactical scheduling, which resulted in airborne holding, was found to increase as the strategic scheduling horizon increased because of the additional uncertainty in the arrival times of the aircraft. Findings from these initial experiments indicate that it is possible to schedule arrivals into Anchorage with minimal delays under low-visibility conditions with less disruption to high-cost, international flights.

Grabbe, Shon↗

NASA NTRS2013

Modeling Weather Impact on Airport Arrival Miles-in-Trail Restrictions

When the demand for either a region of airspace or an airport approaches or exceeds the available capacity, miles-in-trail (MIT) restrictions are the most frequently issued traffic management initiatives (TMIs) that are used to mitigate these imbalances. Miles-intrail operations require aircraft in a traffic stream to meet a specific inter-aircraft separation in exchange for maintaining a safe and orderly flow within the stream. This stream of aircraft can be departing an airport, over a common fix, through a sector, on a specific route or arriving at an airport. This study begins by providing a high-level overview of the distribution and causes of arrival MIT restrictions for the top ten airports in the United States. This is followed by an in-depth analysis of the frequency, duration and cause of MIT restrictions impacting the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport (ATL) from 2009 through 2011. Then, machine-learning methods for predicting (1) situations in which MIT restrictions for ATL arrivals are implemented under low demand scenarios, and (2) days in which a large number of MIT restrictions are required to properly manage and control ATL arrivals are presented. More specifically, these predictions were accomplished by using an ensemble of decision trees with Bootstrap aggregation (BDT) and supervised machine learning was used to train the BDT binary classification models. The models were subsequently validated using data cross validation methods. When predicting the occurrence of arrival MIT restrictions under low demand situations, the model was able to achieve over all accuracy rates ranging from 84% to 90%, with false alarm ratios ranging from 10% to 15%. In the second set of studies designed to predict days on which a high number of MIT restrictions were required, overall accuracy rates of 80% were achieved with false alarm ratios of 20%. Overall, the predictions proposed by the model give better MIT usage information than what has been currently provided under current day operations. Traffic flow managers can use these predictions to identify potential MIT restrictions to eliminate (e.g., those occurring during low arrival demand periods), and to determine the days in which a significant number of restrictions may be required

Operation↗

NASA NTRS2015

A Stochastic Scheduler for Integrated Arrival, Departure and Surface Operations in Los Angeles

In terminal airspace, integrating arrivals, departures, and surface operations with competing resources provides the potential of improving operational efficiency by removing barriers between different operations. This work develops a centralized stochastic scheduler for operations in a terminal area including airborne and surface operations using Non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm and Monte Carlo simulations. The scheduler handles completing resources between different flows, such as runway allocations, runway crossing, departure fixes, and other interaction way points between arrivals and departures. Meanwhile, the scheduler also takes time-varied uncertainties into account when optimizing schedules. The scheduler is run sequentially to identify the best and robust schedule for the next planning window. Resulting schedules decide the routes, speed or delays, and runway assignments with separation constraints at mergingdiverging waypoints in the air and crossing and separations on runways. The Los Angels terminal area was used as an example. The implementation of this stochastic scheduler for integrated arrival, departure and surface operations is completed. And several preliminary runs are finished for over 1,200 flights in LAX in a typical day. Sensitivity studies on various planning window sizes are presented, which shows that trade-off exits between planning window size and achievable minimum delay. Preliminary results on runway usage are also presented in this abstract. Because arrivals on the outer runways have to be followed by crossings on the inner runways, algorithmic runway allocation prefers inner runways for arrivals and outer runways for departures. More results will be presented in the final paper. And current terminal arrival and departure procedures based on first-come-first-serve procedure will also be set up and used as a baseline for comparison.

integrated scheduler↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of a Dynamic Weather-Avoidance Rerouting Tool in Adjacent-Center Arrival Metering

Dynamic Reroutes for Arrivals in Weather (DRAW) is a NASA-developed decision-support tool for Traffic Management Coordinators (TMCs) at the Federal Aviation Administration's Air Route Traffic Control Centers ("Centers"). DRAW proposes weather-avoidance reroutes for en route arrival flights subject to metering restrictions when transitioning into a busy terminal airspace. The prior DRAW study demonstrated that TMCs' use of DRAW promotes earlier reroutes of arrivals, and reduces the number of routes conflicting with weather in the Center. The present paper focuses on how DRAW benefits metering delivery accuracy when schedule freeze horizon distance was altered. A human-in-the-loop simulation was conducted at NASA Ames Research Center in October-November 2018, where retired TMCs and controllers performed simulated metering operations for southeast arrivals through the Atlanta and Jacksonville Centers to the Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport during convective weather periods. Results demonstrated that DRAW use reduced the frequency of manual adjustments of Scheduled Times of Arrival and lowered TMC workload. DRAW use also made the metering accuracy, the number of reroute amendments after the freeze horizon, and the en route sector controller workload more robust to the effect of different freeze horizon distance.

Air Traffic Management (ATM)↗

NASA NTRS2006

Mars Science Laboratory Launch-Arrival Space Study: A Pork Chop Plot Analysis

Launch-Arrival, or "pork chop", plot analysis can provide mission designers with valuable information and insight into a specific launch and arrival space selected for a mission. The study begins with the array of entry states for each pair of selected Earth launch and Mars arrival dates, and nominal entry, descent and landing trajectories are simulated for each pair. Parameters of interest, such as maximum heat rate, are plotted in launch-arrival space. The plots help to quickly identify launch and arrival regions that are not feasible under current constraints or technology and also provide information as to what technologies may need to be developed to reach a desired region. This paper provides a discussion of the development, application, and results of a pork chop plot analysis to the Mars Science Laboratory mission. This technique is easily applicable to other missions at Mars and other destinations.

Cianciolo, Alicia Dwyer↗

NASA NTRS2011

Research Of Airborne Precision Spacing to Improve Airport Arrival Operations

In September 2004, the European Organization for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL) and the United States Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) signed a Memorandum of Cooperation to mutually develop, modify, test, and evaluate systems, procedures, facilities, and devices to meet the need for safe and efficient air navigation and air traffic control in the future. In the United States and Europe, these efforts are defined within the architectures of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) Program and Single European Sky Air Traffic Management Research (SESAR) Program respectively. Both programs have identified Airborne Spacing as a critical component, with Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast (ADS-B) as a key enabler. Increased interest in reducing airport community noise and the escalating cost of aviation fuel has led to the use of Continuous Descent Arrival (CDA) procedures to reduce noise, emissions, and fuel usage compared to current procedures. To provide these operational enhancements, arrival flight paths into terminal areas are planned around continuous vertical descents that are closer to an optimum trajectory than those in use today. The profiles are designed to be near-idle descents from cruise altitude to the Final Approach Fix (FAF) and are typically without any level segments. By staying higher and faster than conventional arrivals, CDAs also save flight time for the aircraft operator. The drawback is that the variation of optimized trajectories for different types and weights of aircraft requires the Air Traffic Controller to provide more airspace around an aircraft on a CDA than on a conventional arrival procedure. This additional space decreases the throughput rate of the destination airport. Airborne self-spacing concepts have been developed to increase the throughput at high-demand airports by managing the inter-arrival spacing to be more precise and consistent using on-board guidance. It has been proposed that the additional space needed around an aircraft performing a CDA could be reduced or eliminated when using airborne spacing techniques.

Barmore, Bryan E.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Feasibility Criteria for Interval Management Operations as Part of Arrival Management Operations

Interval Management (IM) is a future airborne spacing concept that aims to provide more precise inter-aircraft spacing to yield throughput improvements and greater use of fuel efficient trajectories for arrival and approach operations. To participate in an IM operation, an aircraft must be equipped with avionics that provide speeds to achieve and maintain an assigned spacing interval relative to another aircraft. It is not expected that all aircraft will be equipped with the necessary avionics, but rather that IM fits into a larger arrival management concept developed to support the broader mixed-equipage environment. Arrival management concepts are comprised of three parts: a ground-based sequencing and scheduling function to develop an overall arrival strategy, ground-based tools to support the management of aircraft to that schedule, and the IM tools necessary for the IM operation (i.e., ground-based set-up, initiation, and monitoring, and the flight-deck tools to conduct the IM operation). The Federal Aviation Administration is deploying a near-term ground-automation system to support metering operations in the National Airspace System, which falls within the first two components of the arrival management concept. This paper develops a methodology for determining the required delivery precision at controlled meter points for aircraft that are being managed to a schedule and aircraft being managed to a relative spacing interval in order to achieve desired flow rates and adequate separation at the meter points.

Levitt, Ian M.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Separation Assurance and Scheduling Coordination in the Arrival Environment

Separation assurance (SA) automation has been proposed as either a ground-based or airborne paradigm. The arrival environment is complex because aircraft are being sequenced and spaced to the arrival fix. This paper examines the effect of the allocation of the SA and scheduling functions on the performance of the system. Two coordination configurations between an SA and an arrival management system are tested using both ground and airborne implementations. All configurations have a conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) system and either an integrated or separated scheduler. Performance metrics are presented for the ground and airborne systems based on arrival traffic headed to Dallas/ Fort Worth International airport. The total delay, time-spacing conformance, and schedule conformance are used to measure efficiency. The goal of the analysis is to use the metrics to identify performance differences between the configurations that are based on different function allocations. A surveillance range limitation of 100 nmi and a time delay for sharing updated trajectory intent of 30 seconds were implemented for the airborne system. Overall, these results indicate that the surveillance range and the sharing of trajectories and aircraft schedules are important factors in determining the efficiency of an airborne arrival management system. These parameters are not relevant to the ground-based system as modeled for this study because it has instantaneous access to all aircraft trajectories and intent. Creating a schedule external to the CD&R and the scheduling conformance system was seen to reduce total delays for the airborne system, and had a minor effect on the ground-based system. The effect of an external scheduler on other metrics was mixed.

function allocation↗

NASA NTRS2019

Evaluation of a Dynamic Weather-Avoidance Rerouting Tool in Adjacent-Center Arrival Metering

Hayashi, Miwa↗

NASA NTRS2019

Benchmarking CME Arrival Time and Impact: Progress on Metadata, Metrics, and Events

Accurate forecasting of the arrival time and subsequent geomagnetic impacts of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at Earth is an important objective for space weather forecasting agencies. Recently, the CME Arrival and Impact working team has made significant progress toward defining communit yagreed metrics and validation methods to assess the current state of CME modeling capabilities. This will allow the community to quantify our current capabilities and track progress in models over time. First, it is crucial that the community focuses on the collection of the necessary metadata for transparency and reproducibility of results. Concerning CME arrival and impact we have identified six different metadata types: 3D CME measurement, model description, model input, CME (non)arrival observation, model output data, and metrics and validation methods. Second, the working team has also identified a validation time period, where all events within the following two periods will be considered: 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2012 and January 2015 to 31 December 2015. Those two periods amount to a total of about 100 hit events at Earth and a large amount of misses. Considering a time period will remove any bias in selecting events and the event set will represent a sample set that will not be biased by user selection. Lastly, we have defined the basic metrics and skill scores that the CME Arrival and Impact working team will focus on.

Verbeke, C.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Enabling Performance-Based Navigation Arrivals: Development and Simulation Testing of the Terminal Sequencing and Spacing System

NASA has developed an advanced arrival management capability for terminal controllers, known as Terminal Sequencing and Spacing (TSS). TSS increases use of performance-based navigation (PBN) arrival procedures during periods of high traffic demand. It extends two Federal Aviation Administration's operational systems with terminal metering and controller spacing tools. Sixteen high-fidelity human-in-the-loop simulations, involving more than five hundred hours of evaluation time, were conducted to mature TSS from proof-of- concept design to fully functional prototype. These simulations modeled arrival procedures at several U.S. airports, incorporated a broad range of traffic demand profiles and wind conditions, and used controllers with extensive operational experience. Two fundamental metrics are evaluated for these simulations: PBN Success Rate and Inter-Arrival Spacing Error. The PBN Success Rate shows a definitive trend when TSS is used. It increases from 42 percent for today's operations to 68 percent for terminal metering only and 92 percent for terminal metering with controller-managed spacing tools. Meanwhile, the Inter-Arrival Spacing Error improves 25 to 35 percent when TSS is used compared to not used. The TSS technology was transferred to the FAA and, and it is targeted for deployment to several busy airports in the U.S. starting in 2018.

terminal metering↗