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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning with Gradient-Based Optimization of Nuclear Waste Vitrification with Uncertainties and Constraints

Gekko is an optimization suite in Python that solves optimization problems involving mixed-integer, nonlinear, and differential equations. The purpose of this study is to integrate common Machine Learning (ML) algorithms such as Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), support vector regression (SVR), and artificial neural network (ANN) models into Gekko to solve data based optimization problems. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is used alongside ML for better decision making. These methods include ensemble methods, model-specific methods, conformal predictions, and the delta method. An optimization problem involving nuclear waste vitrification is presented to demonstrate the benefit of ML in this field. ML models are compared against the current partial quadratic mixture (PQM) model in an optimization problem in Gekko. GPR with conformal uncertainty was chosen as the best substitute model as it had a lower mean squared error of 0.0025 compared to 0.018 and more confidently predicted a higher waste loading of 37.5 wt% compared to 34 wt%. The example problem shows that these tools can be used in similar industry settings where easier use and better performance is needed over classical approaches. Future works with these tools include expanding them with other regression models and UQ methods, and exploration into other optimization problems or dynamic control.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning for Mapping Multipactor Susceptibility in RF Systems: Capabilities and Generalization Constraints

Multipactor is a surface-driven electron avalanche phenomenon that degrades the performance and reliability of radio-frequency (RF) systems in particle accelerator and vacuum electronics applications. Multipactor behavior in a given device structure is conventionally assessed through susceptibility charts, which provide a parameter-space characterization of the instability. In this work, we assess the capabilities of machine-learning (ML) models to learn and predict such susceptibility charts and analyze the constraints governing their generalization across materials. Using a simulation-derived dataset spanning six distinct secondary-electron-yield material profiles in a canonical two-surface planar geometry, we train supervised regression models and artificial neural networks to predict the time-averaged electron growth rate, δavg, across the relevant parameter space. Model performance is evaluated using metrics that explicitly probe the structure of susceptibility charts, including Intersection over Union, Structural Similarity Index, and correlation analysis. Tree-based ensemble models outperform neural-network models in reconstructing susceptibility regions and in generalizing across material domains. Principal-component analysis reveals disjoint material feature distributions, indicating that the piecewise mode structure of multipactor susceptibility is difficult to represent with a single global model and that generalization is constrained by data coverage rather than by model complexity. An exhaustive reduced-coverage study further shows that sparse material-space coverage can yield mean performance in the same general range but producing large variability in the susceptibility-region overlap. These results clarify the capabilities of ML-based surrogate models for parameter-space characterization of multipactor discharge. They also provide guidance for their appropriate use in RF system design.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Reionization history constraints from neural network based predictions of high-redshift quasar continua

ABSTRACT Observations of the early Universe suggest that reionization was complete by z ∼ 6, however, the exact history of this process is still unknown. One method for measuring the evolution of the neutral fraction throughout this epoch is via observing the Lyα damping wings of high-redshift quasars. In order to constrain the neutral fraction from quasar observations, one needs an accurate model of the quasar spectrum around Lyα, after the spectrum has been processed by its host galaxy but before it is altered by absorption and damping in the intervening intergalactic medium (IGM). In this paper, we present a novel machine learning approach, using artificial neural networks, to reconstruct quasar continua around Lyα. Our Quasar Spectra from Artificial Neural Network based predictive Regression Algorithm(QSANNdRA) improves the error in this reconstruction compared to the state-of-the-art principal component analysis (PCA) based model in the literature by 14.2 per cent on average, and provides an improvement of 6.1 per cent on average when compared to an extension thereof. In comparison with the extended PCA model, QSANNdRA further achieves an improvement of 22.1 per cent and 16.8 per cent when evaluated on low-redshift quasars most similar to the two high-redshift quasars under consideration, ULAS J1120+0641 at z = 7.0851 and ULAS J1342+0928 at z = 7.5413, respectively. Using our more accurate reconstructions of these two z > 7 quasars, we estimate the neutral fraction of the IGM using a homogeneous reionization model and find $\bar{x}_\mathrm{H\, \small{I}} = 0.25^{+0.05}_{-0.05}$ at z = 7.0851 and $\bar{x}_\mathrm{H\, \small{I}} = 0.60^{+0.11}_{-0.11}$ at z = 7.5413. Our results are consistent with the literature and favour a rapid end to reionization.

Ďurovčíková, Dominika↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning-Based Process Control for Injection Molding of Recycled Polypropylene

The increased interest in artificial intelligence in manufacturing has driven the adoption of machine learning to optimize processes and improve efficiency. A key challenge in injection molding is the variability of recycled materials, which affects part quality and processing stability. This study presents a novel closed-loop process control approach for injection molding, leveraging machine learning to adaptively predict processing inputs and quality outcomes. The methodology was tested on five blends of recycled polypropylene (rPP), using artificial neural networks (ANNs), linear regression, and polynomial regression to model the relationships between material properties and process parameters. The dataset was split 80/20 into training and testing sets. The ANN model was implemented using TensorFlow and Keras, with six hidden layers of 32 neurons per layer, ReLU activation, and an Adam optimizer. Empirical tuning and early stopping were used to optimize performance and prevent overfitting. Predictions were evaluated based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and percentage error. The results showed that yield stress, ultimate elongation, and part weight were accurately predicted within a 5% error for linear and polynomial regression models and within a 10% error for the ANN. However, modulus predictions were less reliable, with errors of ~11% for ANN and linear regression and ~40% for polynomial regression, reflecting the inherent variability of this property in rPP blends. Predictions of processing inputs had errors ranging from 3% to 25%, depending on the model and response variable. No single modeling approach was consistently superior across all responses, highlighting the complexity of the relationship between material properties, process parameters, and quality metrics. Overall, the work demonstrates that closed-loop process control, powered by machine learning, can effectively predict key quality parameters in injection molding of recycled materials. The proposed approach can improve process stability and material utilization, facilitating increased adoption of sustainable materials.

Krantz, Joshua↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Short–Term Forecasting of Wind Gusts at Airports Across CONUS Using Machine Learning

Short–term forecasting of wind gusts, particularly those of higher intensity, is of great societal importance but is challenging due to the presence of multiple gust generation mechanisms. Wind gust observations from eight high–passenger–volume airports across the continental United States (CONUS) are summarized and used to develop predictive models of wind gust occurrence and magnitude. These short–term (same hour) forecast models are built using multiple logistic and linear regression, as well as artificial neural networks (ANNs) of varying complexity. A suite of 19 upper–air predictors drawn from the ERA5 reanalysis and an autoregressive (AR) term are used. Stepwise procedures instruct predictor selection, and resampling is used to quantify model stability. All models are developed separately for the warm (April–September) and cold (October–March) seasons. Results show that ANNs of 3–5 hidden layers (HLs) generally exhibit higher hit rates than logistic regression models and also improve skill with respect to wind gust magnitudes. However, deeper networks with more HLs increase false alarm rates in occurrence models and mean absolute error in magnitude models due to model overfitting. For model skill, inclusion of the AR term is critical while the majority of the remaining skill derives from wind speeds and lapse rates. A predictive ceiling is also clearly demonstrated, particularly for the strong and damaging gust magnitudes, which appears to be partially due to ERA5 predictor characteristics and the presence of mixed wind climates.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis testing via AI: Generating physically interpretable models of scientific data with machine learning (Full Technical Report)

Deep learning has demonstrated an exceptional ability to solve complex tasks (an engineering success); however, it has done so at the expense of the ability to generate new knowledge (a scientific failure). We propose an alternative framework—entitled Deep Symbolic Regression (DSR)—in which artificial neural networks (NNs) rapidly generate hypotheses about physical relationships among inputs. This framework bypasses the need to interpret an NN altogether, while still leveraging the representational power of deep learning. The resulting models are tractable mathematical expressions, which are inherently and readily human interpretable and can provide insights into underlying physical phenomena. Further, we fold this methodology into the scientific process by allowing the scientist to directly integrate a priori knowledge and beliefs to accelerate learning. We demonstrate this methodology on symbolic regression—the problem of rediscovering underlying expressions describing a dataset—and achieve state-of-the-art performance across a wide variety of symbolic regression problems. Further, we generalize our DSR framework to apply to the more general class of symbolic optimization problems, in which one seeks to optimize a sequence of symbols or “tokens” under a black-box reward function. Examples of other symbolic optimization problems include neural architecture search and computational antibody design. Our generalized tool, Deep Symbolic Optimization (DSO), has been demonstrated on the task of learning symbolic control policies for reinforcement learning environments, and has been adopted as an enabling capability for computational antibody design.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Navigating Transition-Metal Chemical Space: Artificial Intelligence for First-Principles Design

Conspectus The variability of chemical bonding in open-shell transition-metal complexes not only motivates their study as functional materials and catalysts but also challenges conventional computational modeling tools. Here, tailoring ligand chemistry can alter preferred spin or oxidation states as well as electronic structure properties and reactivity, creating vast regions of chemical space to explore when designing new materials atom by atom. Although first-principles density functional theory (DFT) remains the workhorse of computational chemistry in mechanism deduction and property prediction, it is of limited use here. DFT is both far too computationally costly for widespread exploration of transition-metal chemical space and also prone to inaccuracies that limit its predictive performance for localized d electrons in transition-metal complexes. These challenges starkly contrast with the well-trodden regions of small-organic-molecule chemical space, where the analytical forms of molecular mechanics force fields and semiempirical theories have for decades accelerated the discovery of new molecules, accurate DFT functional performance has been demonstrated, and gold-standard methods from correlated wavefunction theory can predict experimental results to chemical accuracy. The combined promise of transition-metal chemical space exploration and lack of established tools has mandated a distinct approach. In this Account, we outline the path we charted in exploration of transition-metal chemical space starting from the first machine learning (ML) models (i.e., artificial neural network and kernel ridge regression) and representations for the prediction of open-shell transition-metal complex properties. The distinct importance of the immediate coordination environment of the metal center as well as the lack of low-level methods to accurately predict structural properties in this coordination environment first motivated and then benefited from these ML models and representations. Once developed, the recipe for prediction of geometric, spin state, and redox potential properties was straightforwardly extended to a diverse range of other properties, including in catalysis, computational “feasibility”, and the gas separation properties of periodic metal–organic frameworks. Interpretation of selected features most important for model prediction revealed new ways to encapsulate design rules and confirmed that models were robustly mapping essential structure–property relationships. Encountering the special challenge of ensuring that good model performance could generalize to new discovery targets motivated investigation of how to best carry out model uncertainty quantification. Distance-based approaches, whether in model latent space or in carefully engineered feature space, provided intuitive measures of the domain of applicability. With all of these pieces together, ML can be harnessed as an engine to tackle the large-scale exploration of transition-metal chemical space needed to satisfy multiple objectives using efficient global optimization methods. In practical terms, bringing these artificial intelligence tools to bear on the problems of transition-metal chemical space exploration has resulted in ML-model assessments of large, multimillion compound spaces in minutes and validated new design leads in weeks instead of decades.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Efficient bifurcation and tabulation of multi-dimensional combustion manifolds using deep mixture of experts: An a priori study

This work describes and validates an approach for autonomously bifurcating turbulent combustion man-ifolds to divide regression tasks amongst specialized artificial neural networks (ANNs). This approach relies on the mixture of experts (MoE) framework, where each neural network is trained to be specialized in a given portion of the input space. The assignment of different input regions to the experts is determined by a gating network, which is a neural network classifier. In some previous studies, it has been demonstrated that bifurcation of a complex combustion manifold and fitting different ANNs for each part leads to better fits or faster inference speeds. However, the manner of bifurcation in these studies was based on heuristic approaches or clustering techniques. In contrast, the proposed technique enables automatic bifurcation using non-linear planes in high-dimensional turbulent combustion manifolds that are often associated with complex behavior due to different dominating physics in various zones. Furthermore, the proposed concept is validated using 4-dimensional (4D) and 5D flamelet tables, showing that the errors obtained with a given network size, or conversely the network size required to achieve a given accuracy, is considerably reduced. The effect of the number of experts on inference speed is also investigated, showing that by increasing the number of experts from 1 to 8, the inference time can be approximately reduced by a factor of two. Moreover, it is shown that the MoE approach divides the input manifold in a physically intuitive manner, suggesting that the MoE framework can elucidate high-dimensional datasets in a physically meaningful way.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Numerical Investigation of a Central Fuel Property Hypothesis Under Boosted Spark-Ignition Conditions

In the present work, a central fuel property hypothesis (CFPH), which states that fuel properties are sufficient to provide an indication of a fuel’s performance irrespective of its chemical composition, was numerically investigated. In particular, the objective of the study was to determine whether Research Octane Number (RON) and Motor Octane Number (MON), as fuel properties, are sufficient to describe a fuel’s knock-limited performance under boosted spark-ignition (SI) conditions within the framework of CFPH. To this end, four TPRF-bioblendstock surrogates having different compositions but matched RON (=98) and MON (=90), were first generated using a non-linear regression model based on artificial neural network (ANN). Additionally, three unconventional bioblendstocks were included in the analysis: di-isobutylene (DIB), isobutanol, and Anisole. Skeletal reaction mechanisms were generated for the TPRF-DIB, TPRF-isobutanol, and TPRF-anisole blends from a detailed kinetic mechanism. Thereafter, numerical simulations were performed for the fuel surrogates using the skeletal mechanisms and a virtual cooperative fuel research (CFR) engine model, under a representative boosted operating condition. In the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model, the G-equation approach was employed to track the turbulent flame front and the well-stirred reactor model combined with the multi-zone binning strategy was used to capture auto-ignition in the end-gas. In addition, laminar flame speed (LFS) was tabulated for each blend as a function of pressure, temperature, and equivalence ratio a priori, and the lookup tables were used to prescribe laminar flame speed as an input to the G-equation model. Parametric spark timing sweeps were performed for each fuel blend to determine the corresponding knock-limited spark advance (KLSA) and 50% burn point (CA50) at the respective KLSA timing. It was observed that despite same RON, MON, and engine operating conditions, the TPRF-anisole blend exhibited markedly different knock-limited performance from the other three blends. This deviation from the octane index (OI) expectation was shown to be caused by differences in laminar flame speed. However, it was found that relatively large fuel-specific differences in LFS (>20%) would have to be present to cause any appreciable deviation from the OI framework. Otherwise, RON and MON would still be robust enough to predict a fuel’s knock-limited performance.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Role of underlying surface, rainstorm and antecedent wetness condition on flood responses in small and medium sized watersheds in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

Floods are becoming more frequent and are hard to control due to the shortage of water conservancy projects in small and medium sized basins, especially in developing regions. Understanding the hydrologic responses and estimated flood characteristics to storm events can help to predict flood disasters and form better effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, using observations of several representative watersheds and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Principal Component Regression (PCR) models, we conducted data-driven analyses to examine the flood responding characteristics. We quantified the relative contributions of the influencing factors to the variation of each flood characteristic. Statistical analysis of the observations shows that the drainage area plays a key role in determining the distribution of lag time and peak discharge. Rainstorm variability has direct influence on floods, and typhoon-induced rainstorms with high total rainfall and rainfall intensity generate higher lag time, flood peak, unit discharge and runoff depth, but lower runoff coefficient. The ANN and PCR models accurately predicted the variations of flood features using the driving factors including physical geographical characteristics, rainstorm features, and antecedent condition. Physical geographic characteristics are key influential factors of lag time, flood peak and runoff coefficient, while the rainstorm features control the magnitude of unit discharge and runoff depth. These results indicate that floods are mainly affected by rainstorm features and physical geographic characteristics in the Yangtze River delta, and it might become more damaging with the increasing rainfall extremes and sprawling impervious surfaces in a changing environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sivers extraction with Neural Network

Pseudo-data with simulated experimental errors can be generated to train an ensemble of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) implemented on a regression to extract Transverse Momentum-dependent Distributions (TMDs). A preliminary analysis is presented on the reliability in extraction of the Sivers function imposed in the pseudo-data given the bounds on the experimental errors, data sparsity, and complexity of phase-space.

Fernando, Ishara↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Order Models Generation for HTGRs Pebble Shuffling Procedure Optimization Studies

This report provides an initial study for producing reduced-order models (ROMs) of pebble-bed high temperature gas reactor (HTGR) models for the purposes of design optimization. As an initial study, this work is meant to be exploratory---identifying useful workflows and methods for ROM generation---and not meant to be a catch-all analysis of HTGR ROM generation and usage for optimization. This report summarizes three tasks performed in Fiscal Year 2022: 1) the creation of HTGR model, 2) the sensitivity analysis of model design parameters, and 3) an introduction to ROM generation techniques. The representative HTGR model created in this work is a multiphysics equilibrium-core using the BlueCRAB (comprehensive reactor analysis bundle) reactor analysis application, coupling four physical phenomena: neutronics, streamline depletion, porous flow thermal hydraulics, and pebble heat conduction. Part of the model creation was identifying some design parameters and quantities of interest that are relevant in an optimization analysis and adjustable in the model. The sensitivity analysis utilized a polynomial chaos expansion methodology to compute global sensitivity metrics. This analysis showed that thermal hydraulics parameters and quantities of interest had a relatively small impact on simulation results. Finally, the ROM generation work involved exploring three different ROM methodologies: polynomial regression, a Gaussian process, and artificial neural networks. Using a cross-validation technique to characterize ROM performance, the Gaussian process and single-layer artificial neural networks showed the most promising results. Overall, this study was insightful and the lessons learned will be invaluable for the eventual development of an HTGR design optimization workflow.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Invariant surface elastic properties in FCC metals and their correlation to bulk properties revealed by machine learning methods

In this work, we present a combination of machine-learned models that predicts the surface elastic properties of general free surfaces in face-centered cubic (FCC) metals. These models are built by combining a semi-analytical method based on atomistic simulations to calculate surface properties with the artificial neural network (ANN) method or the boosted regression tree (BRT) method. The latter is also used to link bulk properties and surface orientation to surface properties. The surface elastic properties are represented by their invariants considering plane elasticity within a polar method. The resulting models are shown to accurately predict the surface elastic properties of seven pure FCC metals (Cu, Ni, Ag, Au, Al, Pd, Pt). The BRT model reveals the correlations between bulk and corresponding surface properties in terms of invariants, which can be used to guide the design of complex nano-sized particles, wires and films. Finally, by expressing the surface excess energy density as a function of surface elastic invariants, fast predictions of surface energy as a function of in-plane deformations can be made from these model constructs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine Learning Surrogates of a Fuel Matrix Degradation Process Model for Performance Assessment of a Nuclear Waste Repository

Spent nuclear fuel repository simulations are currently not able to incorporate detailed fuel matrix degradation (FMD) process models due to their computational cost, especially when large numbers of waste packages breach. The current paper uses machine learning to develop artificial neural network and k-nearest neighbor regression surrogate models that approximate the detailed FMD process model while being computationally much faster to evaluate. Further, using fuel cask temperature, dose rate, and the environmental concentrations of CO 3 2- , O 2 , Fe 2+ , and H 2 as inputs, these surrogates show good agreement with the FMD process model predictions of the UO 2 degradation rate for conditions within the range of the training data. A demonstration in a full-scale shale repository reference case simulation shows that the incorporation of the surrogate models captures local and temporal environmental effects on fuel degradation rates while retaining good computational efficiency.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Accurate Prediction of Algal Biomass Lipid, Protein, and Carbohydrate Composition with Machine Learning Regression Modelling of Near-IR Spectra

During large scale algal biomass cultivation, it is difficult to reliably control relative composition to target levels. Rapid determination of chemical composition is feasible by using near infrared (NIR) spectral data. We sought to build and improve on reliable high-throughput screening prediction method based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) by the application of artificial neural networks (ANN) and associated optimization strategies. The algal biomass sample set was designed and created in an iterative process of culturing in physiologically diverse conditions at the GAI field site, followed by compositional analyses at NREL. The workflow allowed us to identify gaps in compositional space for informing the subsequent cultivation and sampling efforts and generated a high quality set of 210 unique samples with chemical analysis results, spectral scanning data, and cultivation metadata. We observed a significant improvement in the performance of carbohydrate content predictions using an optimized ANN model compared to PLSR, with > 16% reduction in mean absolute percent error (MAPE) when tested on the same set of reserved data. The optimized ANN models for FAME and protein prediction performed exceptionally well with 5.99% and 5.09% MAPE, respectively. Application of these methods to detection and quantification of minor biomass constituents that are relevant to certain product streams has shown positive preliminary results, opening the possibility for extensions to the outputs of this powerful data type. All models are accompanied by prediction uncertainties and unsupervised spectral outlier detection to alert an operator to unreliable spectral data. These tools can be deployed for rapid determination of algal culture status, and cultivation and biomass quality improvement.

algal biofuels↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗