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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for Analysis of Orbital Conjunction Data

We propose a Wald Sequential Probability Ratio Test for analysis of commonly available predictions associated with spacecraft conjunctions. Such predictions generally consist of a relative state and relative state error covariance at the time of closest approach, under the assumption that prediction errors are Gaussian. We show that under these circumstances, the likelihood ratio of the Wald test reduces to an especially simple form, involving the current best estimate of collision probability, and a similar estimate of collision probability that is based on prior assumptions about the likelihood of collision.

Carpenter, J. Russell↗
DOE OSTI2020

Automated Cloud Based Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network Based SWE Prediction

Snow derived water is a critical component of the US water supply. Measurements of the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and associated predictions of peak SWE and snowmelt onset are essential inputs for water management efforts. This paper aims to develop an integrated framework for real-time data ingestion, estimation, prediction and visualization of SWE based on daily snow datasets. In particular, we develop a data-driven approach for estimating and predicting SWE dynamics using the Long Short-Term Memory neural network (LSTM) method. Our approach uses historical datasets (precipitation, air temperature, SWE, and snow thickness) collected at NRCS Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations to train the LSTM network and current year data to predict SWE behavior. The performance of our prediction was compared for different prediction dates and prediction training datasets. Our results suggest that the proposed LSTM network can be an efficient tool for forecasting the SWE timeseries, as well as Peak SWE and snowmelt timing. Results showed that the window size impacts the model performance (where the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ranged from 0.96 to 0.85 and the Rooted Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 0.038 to 0.07) with an optimum number that should be calibrated for different stations and climate conditions. In addition, by implementing the LSTM prediction capability in a cloud based site-monitoring platform, we automate model-data integration. By making the data accessible through a graphical web interface and an underlying API which exposes both training and prediction capabilities. The associated results can be made easily accessible to a broad range of stakeholders.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

In-Situ Nondestructive Evaluation of Kevlar(Registered Trademark)and Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composite Micromechanics for Improved Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessel Health Monitoring

NASA has been faced with recertification and life extension issues for epoxy-impregnated Kevlar 49 (K/Ep) and carbon (C/Ep) composite overwrapped pressure vessels (COPVs) used in various systems on the Space Shuttle and International Space Station, respectively. Each COPV has varying criticality, damage and repair histories, time at pressure, and pressure cycles. COPVs are of particular concern due to the insidious and catastrophic burst-before-leak failure mode caused by stress rupture (SR) of the composite overwrap. SR life has been defined [1] as the minimum time during which the composite maintains structural integrity considering the combined effects of stress level(s), time at stress level(s), and associated environment. SR has none of the features of predictability associated with metal pressure vessels, such as crack geometry, growth rate and size, or other features that lend themselves to nondestructive evaluation (NDE). In essence, the variability or surprise factor associated with SR cannot be eliminated. C/Ep COPVs are also susceptible to impact damage that can lead to reduced burst pressure even when the amount of damage to the COPV is below the visual detection threshold [2], thus necessitating implementation of a mechanical damage control plan [1]. Last, COPVs can also fail prematurely due to material or design noncompliance. In each case (SR, impact or noncompliance), out-of-family behavior is expected leading to a higher probability of failure at a given stress, hence, greater uncertainty in performance. For these reasons, NASA has been actively engaged in research to develop NDE methods that can be used during post-manufacture qualification, in-service inspection, and in-situ structural health monitoring. Acoustic emission (AE) is one of the more promising NDE techniques for detecting and monitoring, in real-time, the strain energy release and corresponding stress-wave propagation produced by actively growing flaws and defects in composite materials [3,4,5,6,7,8]. To gain further insight into the mechanisms responsible for composite rupture, broadband modal acoustic emission analysis was used. Also, since AE data reduction proved to be very time consuming, specialized data reduction software was written to automate the process.

Waller, Jess↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Abstract Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantified uncertainties in fission yields from machine learning

As machine learning methods gain traction in the nuclear physics community, especially those methods that aim to propagate uncertainties to unmeasured quantities, it is important to understand how the uncertainty in the training data coming either from theory or experiment propagates to the uncertainty in the predicted values. Gaussian Processes and Bayesian Neural Networks are being more and more widely used, in particular to extrapolate beyond measured data. However, studies are typically not performed on the impact of the experimental errors on these extrapolated values. In this work, we focus on understanding how uncertainties propagate from input to prediction when using machine learning methods. We use a Mixture Density Network (MDN) to incorporate experimental error into the training of the network and construct uncertainties for the associated predicted quantities. Systematically, we study the effect of the size of the experimental error, both on the reproduced training data and extrapolated predictions for fission yields of actinides.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of genotype-calling methodologies on genome-wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids

This dataset contains all data used in the paper "Impact of genotype-calling methodologies on genome-wide association and genomic prediction in polyploids". The dataset includes genotypes and phenotypic data from two autotetraploid species Miscanthus sacchariflorus and Vaccinium corymbosum that was used used for genome wide association studies and genomic prediction and the scripts used in the analysis. In this V2, 2 files have the raw data are added: "Miscanthus_sacchariflorus_RADSeq.vcf" is the VCF file with the raw SNP calls of the Miscanthus sacchariflorus data used for genotype calling using the 6 genotype calling methods. "Blueberry_data_read_depths.RData" is the a RData file with the read depth data that was used for genotype calling in the Blueberry dataset.

allelic dosage↗
NASA NTRS1993

Chemical differentiation, thermal evolution, and catastrophic overturn on Venus: Predictions and geologic observations

Observations from Magellan show that: (1) the surface of Venus is generally geologically young, (2) there is no evidence for widespread recent crustal spreading or subduction, (3) the crater population permits the hypothesis that the surface is in production, and (4) relatively few impact craters appear to be embayed by volcanic deposits suggesting that the volcanic flux has drastically decreased as a function of time. These observations have led to consideration of hypotheses suggesting that the geological history of Venus may have changed dramatically as a function of time due to general thermal evolution, and/or thermal and chemical evolution of a depleted mantle layer, perhaps punctuated by catastrophic overturn of upper layers or episodic plate tectonics. We have previously examined the geological implications of some of these models, and here we review the predictions associated with two periods of Venus history. Stationary thick lithosphere and depleted mantle layer, and development of regional to global development of regional to global instabilities, and compare these predictions to the geological characteristics of Venus revealed by Magellan.

Head, James W.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Soil Moisture Memory in Climate Models

Water balance considerations at the soil surface lead to an equation that relates the autocorrelation of soil moisture in climate models to (1) seasonality in the statistics of the atmospheric forcing, (2) the variation of evaporation with soil moisture, (3) the variation of runoff with soil moisture, and (4) persistence in the atmospheric forcing, as perhaps induced by land atmosphere feedback. Geographical variations in the relative strengths of these factors, which can be established through analysis of model diagnostics and which can be validated to a certain extent against observations, lead to geographical variations in simulated soil moisture memory and thus, in effect, to geographical variations in seasonal precipitation predictability associated with soil moisture. The use of the equation to characterize controls on soil moisture memory is demonstrated with data from the modeling system of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project.

Koster, Randal D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

High-resolution modeling of indoor radon exposure with uncertainty quantification in Utah

Indoor radon accounts for 37% of population-level exposure to ionizing radiation in the United States. However, radon metrics are typically reported at coarse spatial scales, potentially obscuring meaningful local variation. We developed a high-resolution modeling framework to estimate indoor radon concentrations across Utah while explicitly quantifying predictive uncertainty. A total of 19,497 residential radon measurements collected between 2006 and 2017 were combined with environmental and housing characteristics and analyzed using a geospatial neural network that accommodates spatial dependence and nonlinear associations. Predictions were generated on a uniform hexagonal grid at 0.73 km2 resolution (H3 level 8). Out-of-sample predictions aggregated to the H3 level 8 grid showed good agreement with observed concentrations (Pearson r=0.64), while household-level predictions exhibited more moderate agreement (r=0.45). The model produced well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, with 24.1% of held-out observations exceeding the predicted 75th-percentile threshold. Maps of predicted radon concentrations and the probability of exceeding the U.S. EPA action level of 148 Bq/m3 (4 pCi/L) revealed substantial fine-scale spatial heterogeneity that was not apparent in conventional coarse-resolution summaries, with greater local variability observed in densely monitored urban counties than in sparsely sampled regions. High-resolution radon models that explicitly quantify uncertainty provide a useful framework for characterizing the spatial distribution of indoor radon and identifying areas of elevated exceedance risk. These findings highlight the value of fine-scale monitoring data and uncertainty-aware modeling approaches for radon exposure assessment, environmental risk characterization, and radon-related health research.

Wu, Yunhan [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000178842994)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Synthesis of Mg2IrH5: A potential pathway to high-Tc hydride superconductivity at ambient pressure

Following long-standing predictions associated with hydrogen, high-temperature superconductivity has recently been observed in several hydride-based materials. Nevertheless, these high-Tc phases only exist at extremely high pressures, and achieving high transition temperatures at ambient pressure remains a major challenge. Recent predictions of the complex hydride Mg2IrH6 may help overcome this challenge with calculations of high-Tc superconductivity (65K

High-temperature superconductors↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating and Refining BISON TRISO Assessment

Several advanced reactor concepts consider tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel in their designs. To support the advanced reactor industry, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing modeling and simulation capabilities within the BISON fuel performance code. Assessment of these capabilities against available experi- mental data, such as the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program, is essential in instilling confidence in the code predictions. Associated uncertainties in model inadequacy, experimental measurements, and manufacturing are also of importance. This report discusses the updating and standardization of the existing assessment suite in BISON for TRISO fuel performance analysis. The cases considered the AGR-1, AGR-2, and AGR-3/4 experimental programs. The report also includes a preliminary investigation into the sources of model inadequacy associated with silver (Ag) release fractions using the AGR-2 Compact 2-1-2 as a case study. The results indicate that uncertainties in the operating temperatures supplied to the model and the form of those temperature conditions (spatially averaged versus spatially resolved) both affect Ag release predictions. This suggests that previously observed model inadequacy can be attributed to both physical models and the operating conditions supplied to them. These findings will be leveraged to guide development of assessment cases for additional experiments and refinement of physical models for behaviors that potentially influence Ag release, such as palladium penetration.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS1981

Some effects of thermal-cycle-induced deformation in rocket thrust chambers

The deformation process observed in the hot gas side wall of rocket combustion chambers was investigaged for three different liner materials. Five thrust chambers were cycled to failure by using hydrogen and oxygen as propellants at a chamber pressure of 4.14 MN/cu m. The deformation was observed nondestructively at midlife points and destructively after failure occurred. The cyclic life results are presented with an accompanying discussion about the problems of life prediction associated with the types of failures encountered in the present work. Data indicating the deformation of the thrust chamber liner as cycles are accumulated are presented for each of the test thrust chambers. From these deformation data and observation of the failure sites it is evident that modeling the failure process as classic low cycle thermal fatigue is inadequate as a life prediction method.

Hannum, N. P.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Water mass age structures the auxiliary metabolic gene content of free-living and particle-attached deep ocean viral communities

Viruses play important roles in the ocean’s biogeochemical cycles. Yet, deep ocean viruses are one of the most under-explored fractions of the global biosphere. Little is known about the environmental factors that control the composition and functioning of their communities or how they interact with their free-living or particle-attached microbial hosts. We analysed 58 viral communities associated with size-fractionated free-living (0.2–0.8 μm) and particle-attached (0.8–20 μm) cellular metagenomes from bathypelagic (2150–4018 m deep) microbiomes obtained during the Malaspina expedition. These metagenomes yielded 6631 viral sequences, 91% of which were novel, and 67 represented high-quality genomes. Taxonomic classification assigned 53% of the viral sequences to families of tailed viruses from the order Caudovirales. Computational host prediction associated 886 viral sequences to dominant members of the deep ocean microbiome, such as Alphaproteobacteria (284), Gammaproteobacteria (241), SAR324 (23), Marinisomatota (39), and Chloroflexota (61). Free-living and particle-attached viral communities had markedly distinct taxonomic composition, host prevalence, and auxiliary metabolic gene content, which led to the discovery of novel viral-encoded metabolic genes involved in the folate and nucleotide metabolisms. Water mass age emerged as an important factor driving viral community composition. We postulated this was due to changes in quality and concentration of dissolved organic matter acting on the host communities, leading to an increase of viral auxiliary metabolic genes associated with energy metabolism among older water masses. These results shed light on the mechanisms by which environmental gradients of deep ocean ecosystems structure the composition and functioning of free-living and particle-attached viral communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1997

Paleobiology of the Mesoproterozoic-Neoproterozoic transition: the Sukhaya Tunguska Formation, Turukhansk Uplift, Siberia

Silicified carbonates of the latest Mesoproterozoic Sukhaya Tunguska Formation, northwestern Siberia, contain abundant and diverse permineralized microfossils. Peritidal environments are dominated by microbial mats built by filamentous cyanobacteria comparable to modern species of Lyngbya and Phormidium. In subtidal to lower intertidal settings, mat-dwelling microbenthos and possible coastal microplankton are abundant. In contrast, densely woven mat populations with few associated taxa characterize more restricted parts of tidal flats; the preservation of vertically oriented sheath bundles and primary fenestrae indicates that in these mats carbonate cementation was commonly penecontemporaneous with mat growth. Eoentophysalis mats are limited to restricted environments where microlaminated carbonate precipitates formed on or just beneath the sediment surface. Most microbenthic populations are cyanobacterial, although eukaryotic microfossils may occur among the simple spheroidal cells interpreted as coastal plankton. Protists are more securely represented by large (up to 320 micrometers in diameter) but poorly preserved acritarchs in basinal facies. The Sukhaya Tunguska assemblage contains 27 species in 18 genera. By virtue of their stratigraphic longevity and their close and predictable association with specific paleoenvironmental conditions, including substrates, Proterozoic cyanobacteria support a model of bacterial evolution in which populations adapt rapidly to novel environments and, thereafter, resist competitive replacement. The resulting evolutionary pattern is one of accumulation and stasis rather than the turnover and replacement characteristic of Phanerozoic plants and animals.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS2006

Design Tools for Cost-Effective Implementation of Planetary Protection Requirements

Since the Viking missions to Mars in the 1970s, accounting for the costs associated with planetary protection implementation has not been done systematically during early project formulation phases, leading to unanticipated costs during subsequent implementation phases of flight projects. The simultaneous development of more stringent planetary protection requirements, resulting from new knowledge about the limits of life on Earth, together with current plans to conduct life-detection experiments on a number of different solar system target bodies motivates a systematic approach to integrating planetary protection requirements and mission design. A current development effort at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is aimed at integrating planetary protection requirements more fully into the early phases of mission architecture formulation and at developing tools to more rigorously predict associated cost and schedule impacts of architecture options chosen to meet planetary protection requirements.

mission architecture↗
NASA NTRS2003

Understanding the Effect of Land Cover Classification on Model Estimates of Regional Carbon Cycling in the Boreal Forest Biome

The original objectives of this proposed 3-year project were to: 1) quantify the respective contributions of land cover and disturbance (i.e., wild fire) to uncertainty associated with regional carbon source/sink estimates produced by a variety of boreal ecosystem models; 2) identify the model processes responsible for differences in simulated carbon source/sink patterns for the boreal forest; 3) validate model outputs using tower and field- based estimates of NEP and NPP; and 4) recommend/prioritize improvements to boreal ecosystem carbon models, which will better constrain regional source/sink estimates for atmospheric C02. These original objectives were subsequently distilled to fit within the constraints of a 1 -year study. This revised study involved a regional model intercomparison over the BOREAS study region involving Biome-BGC, and TEM (A.D. McGuire, UAF) ecosystem models. The major focus of these revised activities involved quantifying the sensitivity of regional model predictions associated with land cover classification uncertainties. We also evaluated the individual and combined effects of historical fire activity, historical atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and climate change on carbon and water flux simulations within the BOREAS study region.

Kimball, John↗
NASA NTRS1979

Natural sampling strategy

A natural stratum-based sampling scheme and the aggregation procedures for estimating wheat area, yield, and production and their associated prediction error estimates are described. The methodology utilizes LANDSAT imagery and agrophysical data to permit an improved stratification in foreign areas by ignoring political boundaries and restratifying along boundaries that are more homogeneous with respect to the distribution of agricultural density, soil characteristics, and average climatic conditions. A summary of test results is given including a discussion of the various problems encountered.

Hallum, C. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Submillimeter, millimeter, and microwave spectral line catalogue

A computer accessible catalogue of submillimeter, millimeter, and microwave spectral lines in the frequency range between O and 3000 GHz (such as; wavelengths longer than 100 m) is discussed. The catalogue was used as a planning guide and as an aid in the identification and analysis of observed spectral lines. The information listed for each spectral line includes the frequency and its estimated error, the intensity, lower state energy, and quantum number assignment. The catalogue was constructed by using theoretical least squares fits of published spectral lines to accepted molecular models. The associated predictions and their estimated errors are based upon the resultant fitted parameters and their covariances.

Poynter, R. L.↗