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The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

Abell, Paul A.↗

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul↗

Risk Estimation of Threatening Asteroids

When faced with the question of designing an asteroid deflection mission or with the decision of launching it, significant uncertainties are present in the asteroid’s physical properties, and its orbit solution. The success of the deflection mission relies heavily on these aspects. For example, a heavier than expected asteroid will reduce the imparted deflection DV. So will a larger porosity value by reducing the beta factor [1]. Here, we present a new capability that estimates asteroid impact risk under consideration of these uncertainties. The new method samples the uncertainty space along multiple dimensions, performs a predetermined deflection, propagates the deflected samples to the Earth, models the impact damage, and estimates the overall risk outcome. The work builds on the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment tool [2] by including orbital uncertainty and deflection capabilities. We demonstrate this risk estimation approach for threatening asteroids using the example of the fictitious impactor 2019 PDC. Such analysis provides a quantitative basis for the work of decision makers and disaster managers. It may further find application in areas such as mitigation mission planning where projected post-mitigation risk can be compared to premitigation levels as a means of cost-benefit analysis formitigation options.

Rumpf, Clemens↗

Ion Beam Deflection (AKA Push-Me/Pull-You)

The Ion Beam Deflection provides the following potential advantages over other asteroid deflection systems. Like the gravity tractor, it doesn't require despinning of the asteroid. Unlike the gravity tractor, it provides a significantly higher coupling force that is independent of the asteroid size. The concept could be tested as part of the baseline Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission. The thrust and total impulse are entirely within the design of the SEP vehicle. The total impulse is potentially competitive with kinetic impactors and eliminates the need for a second rendezvous spacecraft.Gridded ion thrusters provide beam divergence angles of a few degrees enabling long stand-off distances from the asteroid. Mitigating control issues. Minimizing back-sputter contamination risks

high-power, low-beam-divergence ion thruster (NEXI↗

Predicting Asteroid Material Properties from a DART-like Kinetic Impact

Abstract NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission is the first full-scale test of the kinetic impactor method for asteroid deflection, in which a spacecraft intentionally impacts an asteroid to change its trajectory. DART represents an important first step for planetary defense technology demonstration, providing a realistic assessment of the effectiveness of the kinetic impact approach on a near-Earth asteroid. The momentum imparted to the asteroid is transferred from the impacting spacecraft and enhanced by the momentum of material ejected from the impact site. However, the magnitude of the ejecta contribution is dependent on the material properties of the target. These properties, such as strength and shear modulus, are unknown for the DART target asteroid, Dimorphos, as well as most asteroids since such properties are difficult to characterize remotely. This study examines how hydrocode simulations can be used to estimate material properties from information available post-impact, specifically the asteroid size and shape, the velocity and properties of the impacting spacecraft, and the final velocity change imparted to the asteroid. Across >300 three-dimensional simulations varying seven material parameters describing the asteroid, we found many combinations of properties could reproduce a particular asteroid velocity. Additional observations, such as asteroid mass or crater size, are required to further constrain properties like asteroid strength or outcomes like the momentum enhancement provided by impact ejecta. Our results demonstrate the vital importance of having as much knowledge as possible prior to an impact mission, with key material parameters being the asteroid’s mass, porosity, strength, and elastic properties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Key Challenges in Capturing a Boulder for the Asteroid Redirect Robotic Mission

NASA's proposed Asteroid Redirect Mission planned to demonstrate the capability to collect a large boulder from the surface of a Near Earth Asteroid, use that mass of the boulder to demonstrated enhanced asteroid deflection, and return the boulder for future exploration as part of the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission. In June of 2017 NASA decided not to continue the Asteroid Redirect Mission. Prior to this decision, the team had made tremendous progress on detailed designs for precision landing, active touchdown, boulder collection, and formation-flying planetary defense

Redirect↗

Conceptual Design of a Flight Validation Mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle

Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are asteroids and comets whose orbits approach or cross Earth s orbit. NEOs have collided with our planet in the past, sometimes to devastating effect, and continue to do so today. Collisions with NEOs large enough to do significant damage to the ground are fortunately infrequent, but such events can occur at any time and we therefore need to develop and validate the techniques and technologies necessary to prevent the Earth impact of an incoming NEO. In this paper we provide background on the hazard posed to Earth by NEOs and present the results of a recent study performed by the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center s Mission Design Lab (MDL) in collaboration with Iowa State University s Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) to design a flight validation mission for a Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) as part of a Phase 2 NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) research project. The HAIV is a two-body vehicle consisting of a leading kinetic impactor and trailing follower carrying a Nuclear Explosive Device (NED) payload. The HAIV detonates the NED inside the crater in the NEO s surface created by the lead kinetic impactor portion of the vehicle, effecting a powerful subsurface detonation to disrupt the NEO. For the flight validation mission, only a simple mass proxy for the NED is carried in the HAIV. Ongoing and future research topics are discussed following the presentation of the detailed flight validation mission design results produced in the MDL.

Barbee, Brent W.↗

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

This final technical report describes the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable solution to the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The technical materials contained in this final report are based on numerous technical papers, which have been previously published by the project team of the NIAC Phase 1 and 2 studies during the past three years. Those technical papers as well as a NIAC Phase 2 Executive Summary report can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

NEO↗

An Innovative Solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (< 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results. Detailed technical descriptions of the study results are provided in a separate final technical report, which can be downloaded from the ADRC website (www.adrc.iastate.edu).

NEO Impact Threat Mitigation↗

An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time

This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.

NEO Impact threat↗

After DART: Using the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor to inform a future planetary defense mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is the first full-scale test of an asteroid deflection technology. Results from the hypervelocity kinetic impact and Earth-based observations, coupled with LICIACube and the later Hera mission, will result in measurement of the momentum transfer efficiency accurate to ~10% and characterization of the Didymos binary system. But DART is a single experiment; how could these results be used in a future planetary defense necessity involving a different asteroid? We examine what aspects of Dimorphos’s response to kinetic impact will be constrained by DART results; how these constraints will help refine knowledge of the physical properties of asteroidal materials and predictive power of impact simulations; what information about a potential Earth impactor could be acquired before a deflection effort; and how design of a deflection mission should be informed by this understanding. We generalize the momentum enhancement factor β, showing that a particular direction-specific β will be directly determined by the DART results, and that a related direction-specific β is a figure of merit for a kinetic impact mission. The DART β determination constrains the ejecta momentum vector, which, with hydrodynamic simulations, constrains the physical properties of Dimorphos’s near-surface. In a hypothetical planetary defense exigency, extrapolating these constraints to a newly discovered asteroid will require Earth-based observations and benefit from in-situ reconnaissance. We show representative predictions for momentum transfer based on different levels of reconnaissance and discuss strategic targeting to optimize the deflection and reduce the risk of a counterproductive deflection in the wrong direction.

Asteroids↗

Achievement of the Planetary Defense Investigations of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission

NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was the first to demonstrate asteroid deflection, and the mission's Level 1 requirements guided its planetary defense investigations. Here, we summarize DART's achievement of those requirements. On 2022 September 26, the DART spacecraft impacted Dimorphos, the secondary member of the Didymos near-Earth asteroid binary system, demonstrating an autonomously navigated kinetic impact into an asteroid with limited prior knowledge for planetary defense. Months of subsequent Earth-based observations showed that the binary orbital period was changed by –33.24 minutes, with two independent analysis methods each reporting a 1 σ uncertainty of 1.4 s. Dynamical models determined that the momentum enhancement factor, β , resulting from DART's kinetic impact test is between 2.4 and 4.9, depending on the mass of Dimorphos, which remains the largest source of uncertainty. Over five dozen telescopes across the globe and in space, along with the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids, have contributed to DART's investigations. These combined investigations have addressed topics related to the ejecta, dynamics, impact event, and properties of both asteroids in the binary system. A year following DART's successful impact into Dimorphos, the mission has achieved its planetary defense requirements, although work to further understand DART's kinetic impact test and the Didymos system will continue. In particular, ESA's Hera mission is planned to perform extensive measurements in 2027 during its rendezvous with the Didymos–Dimorphos system, building on DART to advance our knowledge and continue the ongoing international collaboration for planetary defense.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Mission Analysis for the Don Quijote Phase-A Study

The Don Quijote Phase-A study is a definition study funded by ESA and devoted to the analysis of the possibilities to deflect a Near Earth Object (NEO) in the range of 300-800 m diameter. DEIMOS Space S.L. and EADS Astrium have teamed up within this study to form one of the three consortia that have analyzed these aspects for ESA. Target asteroids for the mission are 1989 ML, 2002 AT4 and Apophis. This paper presents the mission analysis activities within the consortium providing: low-thrust interplanetary rendezvous Orbiter trajectories to the target asteroids, ballistic interplanetary trajectories for the Impactor, Orbiter arrival description at the asteroids, Orbiter stable orbits characterization at the asteroid, deflection determination by means of a Radio Science Experiment (RSE) as well as the mission timelines and overall mission scenarios.

Cano, Juan L.↗

Optimal Fragmentation and Dispersion of Hazardous Near-Earth Objects

The complex problem of protecting the Earth from the possibility of a catastrophic impact by a hazardous near-Earth object (NEO) has been recently reassessed in [1]. In a letter on NEOs from the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) to the U.S. Senate and Congress in 2010, the White House OSTP strongly recommended that NASA take the lead in conducting research activities for NEO detection, characterization, and deflection technologies. Furthermore, President Obama's new National Space Policy specifically directs NASA to "pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments, agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize NEOs to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet." The Planetary Defense Task Force of the NASA Advisory Council also recommended that the NASA Office of the Chief Technologist (OCT) begin efforts to investigate asteroid deflection techniques. With national interest growing in the United States, the NEO threat detection and mitigation problem was recently identified as one of NASA's Space Technology Grand Challenges. An innovative solution to NASA's NEO Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge problem was developed through a NIAC Phase I study (9/16/11 - 9/15/12), and it will be further investigated for a NIAC Phase II study (9/10/12 - 9/9/14). Various NEO deflection technologies, including nuclear explosions, kinetic impactors, and slow-pull gravity tractors, have been proposed and examined during the past two decades. Still, there is no consensus on how to reliably deflect or disrupt hazardous NEOs in a timely manner. It is expected that the most probable mission scenarios will have a mission lead time much shorter than 10 years, so the use of nuclear explosives becomes the most feasible method for planetary defense. Direct intercept missions with a short warning time will result in arrival closing velocities of 10-30 kilometers per second with respect to the target asteroid. Given such a large arrival delta V requirement, a rendezvous mission to the target asteroid is infeasible with existing launch vehicles. Furthermore, state-of-the-art penetrating subsurface nuclear explosion technology limits the penetrator's impact velocity to less than approximately 300 meters per second because higher impact velocities prematurely destroy the nuclear fuzing mechanisms. Therefore, significant advances in hypervelocity nuclear interceptor/ penetrator technology must be achieved to enable a last-minute nuclear disruption mission with intercept velocities as high as 30 kilometers per second. Consequently, a HAIV (Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle) mission architecture (Figure 1.1), which blends a hypervelocity kinetic impactor with a subsurface nuclear explosion for optimal fragmentation and dispersion of hazardous NEOs, has been developed through a Phase I study, and it will be further developed and validated through a Phase II study.

Asteroid↗

Characteristics of a high-power ion beam deflection system necessary to deflect the hypothetical asteroid 2017 PD

The July 2027 impact date for the hypothetical asteroid 2017 PDC, that is the subject of an emergency response exercise, leaves just over ten years to implement a deflection approach. The analyses herein allocates four years to the design, fabrication, assembly, test and launch of a notional high-power Ion Beam Deflection (IBD) vehicle to meet a launch readiness date no later than May 2021. Using this launch date along with estimates for the vehicle mass and performance characteristics of the electric propulsion system, low-thrust trajectory analyses indicate a 2.56-year flight time to rendezvous with 2017 PDC. This would leave 3.6 years to execute the actual deflection phase. A 160-kW IBD vehicle could deflect 2017 PDC by at least one Earth radius within this time provided the asteroid’s actual diameter was less than about 140 m and its density was 2 g/cm3 or less. Larger diameters and/or higher densities would require a higher power IBD vehicle, multiple IBD vehicles, or a longer deflection phase. Ion beam deflection is largely independent of the characteristics of the threat object, but its effectiveness, like all deflection approaches, is sensitive to both the asteroid mass and the time available for deflection. The characteristics of IBD, i.e., large standoff distance between the spacecraft and the asteroid surface, as well as ion beam divergence angles of a few degrees, facilitates the possible simultaneous use of multiple IBD vehicles to improve the performance and robustness of the asteroid deflection. The 65-cm diameter, 20-kW NEXIS ion thruster developed in support of the Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter mission concept is particularly well suited for application to a high-power IBD system. It has demonstrated an ion beam divergence angle of approximately 2 degrees and operation at 20 kW for over 2,000 hours. Completion of the development and flight qualification of this technology would significantly reduce the risk and time necessary to respond to the discovery of potentially hazardous asteroid in the size range of 50- to 100-m diameter.

Reeves, David↗

Moon - Possible nature of the body that produced the Imbrian Basin, from the composition of Apollo 14 samples.

Soils from the Apollo 14 site contain nearly three times as much meteoritic material as soils from the Apollo 11, Apollo 12, and Luna 16 sites. Part of this material consists of the ubiquitous micrometeorite component, of primitive (carbonaceous-chondrite-like) composition. The remainder, seen most conspicuously in coarse glass and norite fragments, has a decidedly fractionated composition, with volatile elements less than one-tenth as abundant as siderophiles. This material seems to be debris of the Cyprus-sized planetesimal that produced the Imbrian Basin. Compositionally this planetesimal has no exact counterpart among known meteorite classes, though group IVA irons come close. It also resembles the initial composition of the earth as postulated by the two-component model. Apparently the Imbrian planetesimal was an earth satellite swept up by the moon during tidal recession or capture, or an asteroid deflected by Mars into terrestrial space.

Ganapathy, R.↗

A possible comet and asteroid link in the formation of comets

IRAS data on particles in the asteroid belt and 'cirrus' clouds at large heliocentric distances are used as the bases for a model of ongoing comet production. It is noted that many particles in the solar system have a radiation pressure/gravitational attraction ratio of 0.5, a condition that holds true for particles in the asteroid belt. Collisionally disturbed into eccentric orbits, the particles could collect frosty grains in the outermost solar system. IRAS revealed the presence of many of these grains in the asteroid belt. It is numerically shown that the agglomeration of many subkilometer radius asteroids deflected into the outer solar system by orbital perturbations induced by Jupiter could provide a nucleating location for the outwardly-migrated grains. Techniques which could be employed to test the hypothesis are discussed.

Odell, C. R.↗

A Space-Based Near-Earth Object Survey Telescope in Support of Human Exploration, Solar System Science, and Planetary Defense

Human exploration of near-Earth objects (NEOs) beginning in 2025 is one of the stated objectives of U.S. National Space Policy. Piloted missions to these bodies would further development of deep space mission systems and technologies, obtain better understanding of the origin and evolution of our Solar System, and support research for asteroid deflection and hazard mitigation strategies. As such, mission concepts have received much interest from the exploration, science, and planetary defense communities. One particular system that has been suggested by all three of these communities is a space-based NEO survey telescope. Such an asset is crucial for enabling affordable human missions to NEOs circa 2025 and learning about the primordial population of objects that could present a hazard to the Earth in the future.

Abell, Paul A.↗