Impact Risk Assessment Dashboard: 2024 PDC25 Hypothetical Asteroid Impact Exercise, Epoch 1
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The Manson impact crater: Estimation of the energy of formation, possible size of the impacting asteroid or comet, and ejecta volume and mass
A research program on the Manson impact structure has substantially improved our knowledge of the detailed features of this eroded crater. As part of our structural studies, we have derived a value of 21 km for the diameter of the final transient cavity formed during crater excavation. With this information, we can estimate the energy of formation of the Manson crater and the possible size of the impacting asteroid or comet. In addition, we have estimated the near- and far-field ejecta volumes and masses.
Roddy, D. J.↗
Introduction to Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment
This presentation provides an introductory overview of key factors involved in the asteroid impact threat assessment and risk modeling performed for the Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical impact exercises.
ATAP↗
Laboratory simulation of pelagic asteroidal impact Atmospheric injection, benthic topography, and the surface wave radiation field
The hypervelocity impact (1.25-6 km/s) of projectiles into water overlying unconsolidated strata is reported for a variety of water depths. Variation of the background atmospheric pressure is found to be an important additional parameter. The relation of these exploratory experiments to pelagic impact of asteroidal-sized objects is discussed from the standpoint of atmospheric injection of sea water, the modification of bottom (benthic) topography, and the generation of a field of mega-amplitude sea waves and their propagation away from the source.
Gault, D. E.↗
ASTEROID-IMPACT HYPOTHESIS OF TEKTITE ORIGIN III. THE SOUTHEAST ASIAN STREWN FIELDS
Geographical distribution in southeast asian strewn field of tektites used to prove asteroid impact hypothesis of tektite origin
EXTRATERRESTRIAL MATTER↗
Evacuation and Shelter Plans for Asteroid Impacts
Lessons from Analogs - Hurricanes - Forecasting in time to take action - Large scale evacuations - Risk tolerance - Nuclear Explosions - Effects of large blast waves - Shelters - Fatality rates Application to Asteroid Impacts - PDC 2021: small, little warning, poorly constrained - PDC 2023: large, well characterized
ATAP↗
An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time
To develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation technique for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (i.e., when we don't have sufficient warning times for a deflection mission).
NEO Impact threat↗
Impact winter and the Cretaceous/Tertiary extinctions: Results of a Chicxulub asteroid impact model
The Chicxulub impact crater in Mexico is the site of the impact purported to have caused mass extinctions at the Cretaceous/Tertiary (K/T) boundary. 2-D hydrocode modeling of the impact, coupled with studies of the impact site geology, indiate that between 0.4 and 7.0 x 10(exp 17) g of sulfur were vaporized by the impact into anhydrite target rocks. A small portion of the sulfur was released as SO3 or SO4, which converted rapidly into H2SO4 aerosol and fell as acid rain. A radiative transfer model, coupled with a model of coagulation indicates that the aerosol prolonged the initial blackout period caused by impact dust only if the aerosol contained impurities. A larger portion of sulfur was released as SO2, which converted to aerosol slowly, due to the rate-limiting oxidation of SO2. Our radiative transfer calculations, combined with rates of acid production, coagulation, and diffusion indicate that solar transmission was reduced to 10-20% of normal for a period of 8-13 yr. This reduction produced a climate forcing (cooling) of -300 W/sq.m, which far exceeded the +8 W/sq.m greenhouse warming, caused by the CO2 released through the vaporization of carbonates, and therefore produced a decade of freezing and near-freezing temperatures. Several decades of moderate warming followed the decade of severe cooling due to the long residence time of CO2. The prolonged impact winter may have been a major cause of the K/T extinctions.
Pope, Kevin O.↗
The Comet and Asteroid Impact Hazard in Perspective
This paper describes two aspects to the comet and asteroid hazard problem.
comet asteroid impact↗
Dealing with the Asteroid Impact Hazard
The small fraction of the asteroids with Earth-crossing or Earth-approaching orbits is of special interest to us because many will eventually impact our planet. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics, although we have little information on the possible variability of this flux over time. The effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts (such as the KT impactor 65 million years ago), nuclear explosive testing, and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile roughly 15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near one million megatons energy. The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. These include the relative risk of different impact scenarios and the associated costs and probability of success of countermeasures. It is generally agreed that the first step is to survey and catalogue the thousand-or-so Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs), and we review the status of the Spaceguard NEA Survey. We compare the efficiency of various ground and space-based approaches and consider the challenges of international coordination and the problems and opportunities associated with communicating the results with the press and the public. It is also important to reflect on how the impact hazard might be dealt with by both national governments and international decision-making bodies, and to anticipate ways of mitigating the danger if a NEA were located on an apparent Earth-impact trajectory. As the most extreme known example of a natural hazard with low probability but severe global consequences. the NEA impact hazard calls for the most careful consideration and planning.
Morrison, David↗
An Optimal Mitigation Strategy Against the Asteroid Impact Threat with Short Warning Time
This paper presents the results of a NASA Innovative Advanced Concept (NIAC) Phase 2 study entitled "An Innovative Solution to NASA's Near-Earth Object (NEO) Impact Threat Mitigation Grand Challenge and Flight Validation Mission Architecture Development." This NIAC Phase 2 study was conducted at the Asteroid Deflection Research Center (ADRC) of Iowa State University in 2012-2014. The study objective was to develop an innovative yet practically implementable mitigation strategy for the most probable impact threat of an asteroid or comet with short warning time (less than 5 years). The mitigation strategy described in this paper is intended to optimally reduce the severity and catastrophic damage of the NEO impact event, especially when we don't have sufficient warning times for non-disruptive deflection of a hazardous NEO. This paper provides an executive summary of the NIAC Phase 2 study results.
NEO Impact threat↗
Computer modeling of large asteroid impacts into continental and oceanic sites: Atmospheric, cratering, and ejecta dynamics
Numerous impact cratering events have occurred on the Earth during the last several billion years that have seriously affected our planet and its atmosphere. The largest cratering events, which were caused by asteroids and comets with kinetic energies equivalent to tens of millions of megatons of TNT, have distributed substantial quantities of terrestrial and extraterrestrial material over much or all of the Earth. In order to study a large-scale impact event in detail, computer simulations were completed that model the passage of a 10 km-diameter asteroid through the Earth's atmosphere and the subsequent cratering and ejecta dynamics associated with impact of the asteroid into two different targets, i.e., an oceanic site and a continental site. The calcuations were designed to broadly represent giant impact events that have occurred on the Earth since its formation and specifically represent an impact cratering event proposed to have occurred at the end of Cretaceous time. Calculation of the passage of the asteroid through a U.S. Standard Atmosphere showed development of a strong bow shock that expanded radially outward. Behind the shock front was a region of highly shock compressed and intensely heated air. Behind the asteroid, rapid expansion of this shocked air created a large region of very low density that also expanded away from the impact area. Calculations of the cratering events in both the continental and oceanic targets were carried to 120 s. Despite geologic differences, impacts in both targets developed comparable dynamic flow fields, and by approx. 29 s similar-sized transient craters approx. 39 km deep and approx. 62 km across had formed. For all practical purposes, the atmosphere was nearly completely removed from the impact area for tens of seconds, i.e., air pressures were less than fractions of a bar out to ranges of over 50 km. Consequently, much of the asteroid and target materials were ejected upward into a near vacuum. Effects of secondary volcanism and return of the ocean over hot oceanic crater floor could also be expected to add substantial solid and vaporized material to the atmosphere, but these conditions were not studied.
Roddy, D. J.↗
High Resolution Calculations of Asteroid Impacts into the Venusian Atmosphere
We present results from a number of 2-D high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations of asteroids striking the atmosphere of Venus, using the numerical code ZEUS.
Korycansky, D. G.↗
Nanoscale Mineralogy and Composition of Experimental Regolith Agglutinates Produced under Asteroidal Impact Conditions
On the Moon, the energetics of smaller impactors and the physical/chemical characteristics of the granular regolith target combine to form a key product of lunar space weathering: chemically reduced shock melts containing optically-active nanophase Fe metal grains (npFe0) [1]. In addition to forming the optically dark glassy matrix phase in lunar agglutinitic soil particles [1], these shock melts are becoming increasingly recognized for their contribution to optically active patina coatings on a wide range of exposed rock and grain surfaces in the lunar regolith [2]. In applying the lessons of lunar space weathering to asteroids, the potential similarities and differences in regolith-hosted shock melts on the Moon compared to those on asteroids has become a topic of increasing interest [3,4]. In a series of impact experiments performed at velocities applicable to the asteroid belt [5], Horz et al. [6] and See and Horz [7] have previously shown that repeated impacts into a gabbroic regolith analog target can produce melt-welded grain aggregates morphologically very similar to lunar agglutinates [6,7]. Although these agglutinate-like particles were extensively analyzed by electron microprobe and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) as part of the original study [7], a microstructural and compositional comparison of these aggregates to lunar soil agglutinates at sub-micron scales has yet to be made. To close this gap, we characterized a representative set of these aggregates using a JEOL 7600 field-emission scanning electron microscope (FE-SEM), and JEOL 2500SE field-emission scanning transmission electron microscope (FE-STEM) both optimized for energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX) compositional spectrum imaging at respective analytical spatial resolutions of 0.5 to 1 micron, and 2 to 4 nm.
Christoffersen, Roy↗
Computer simulations of 10-km-diameter asteroid impacts into oceanic and continental sites: Preliminary results on atmospheric passage, cratering and ejecta dynamics
A series of analytical calculations of large scale cratering events for both oceanic and continental sites were made in order to examine their effects on the target media and atmosphere. The first analytical studies that were completed consists of computer simulations of the dynamics of: (1) the passage of a 10 km diameter asteroid moving at 20 km/sec through the Earth's atmosphere, and (2) the impact cratering events in both oceanic and continental environments. Calculation of the dynamics associated with the passage of the asteroid through the atmosphere showed strong effects on the surrounding air mass. The calculations of the impact cratering events showed equally dramatic effects on the oceanic and continental environments. These effects are briefly discussed.
Roddy, D. J.↗
Thinking of biology: asteroid impacts, microbes, and the cooling of the atmosphere
The authors examine the cooling of the Earth's surface from 3.75 to 1 billion years ago. Three effects of the bombardment of Earth by asteroids and comets that may have delayed surface cooling include time to form continents, volatilization of carbonate rocks which released carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and inability of microbes to inhabit land masses during large impact events. Continental microbes may have helped reduce high temperatures from 3.75 to 3.5 billion years ago. If so, the evolutionary sequence of microbes is proposed to be anaerobic heterotrophs, chemoautotrophs, and then photoautotrophs.
Non-NASA Center↗
Asteroid Impacts, Microbes, and the Cooling of the Atmosphere
Earth's surface temperature constrained microbial evolution, according to Schwartzman et al. (1993). Their hypothesis states that the maximal temperature that extant organisms of a given type tolerate is the surface temperature occurring when that type of organism arose. Schwartzman and his colleagues concluded that the temperature changed from 100 C to 50 C between 3.75 billion years ago (BYA) and 1 BYA. These temperatures are consistent with those derived from oxygen isotope ratios in ancient sediments (Karhu and Epstein 1986, Knauth and Lowe 1978). The 100 C surface temperature they derive for 3.75 BYA is also the same as Earth's surface temperature 4.4 BYA (Kosting and Ackerman 1986). In this article, we address the cause of the delay in surface cooling until 3.75 BYA, and we explore the implications for microbial evolution of a high temperature on early Earth. We propose that three effects of the early heavy bombardment of Earth by asteroids and comets, until 3.8 BYA, could have delayed onset of surface cooling.
Oberbeck, Verne R.↗