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NASA NTRS2014

The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids

The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.

Abell, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Robotic Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration and Planetary Defense

Introduction: Robotic missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration and planetary defense. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. These data can also be applied for gaining an understanding of pertinent small body physical characteristics that would also be beneficial for formulating future impact mitigation procedures. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Of these four SKG themes, the first three have significant overlap with planetary defense considerations. The data obtained from investigations of small body physical characteristics under these three themes can be directly applicable to planetary defense initiatives. Conclusions: Missions to investigate small bodies can address small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids and the Martian moons. In addition, such reconnaissance of small bodies can also provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs.

Abell, Paul A.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry/breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity’s four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity's four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Life and Death on Mars and Earth

Failure to discover life on Mars has led a great many experts to conclude that it must be hiding. Where? The likeliest hiding places are deep beneath the surface, where geothermal heat could permit liquid water. In this the search for life on Mars parallels the search for water on Mars. Liquid water has been, at least on occasion, a geologically significant presence on the surface. Channels were cut and plains dissected. This water is now hidden, in all likelihood having drained to the base of the porous regolith, where it fills possibly frozen aquifers. Presumably any surviving biota has followed the water from the surface to its hiding places in the deep. Accordingly, we have extended our environmental impact assessment of the environmental hazards posed by large asteroid and comet impacts to Mars, and compare its case to Earth's. In particular, we address the continuous habitability of surface and subsurface environments.

Zahnle, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Ground Footprint Eccentricity Model For Asteroid Airbursts

Uncertainties in early observations of potentially hazardous asteroids result in preliminary impact corridors that can stretch across large portions of the Earth’s surface. At this early stage of detection, the corridor width and potential for damage are typically estimated using techniques from nuclear weapons research. These estimates often employ spherical blast assumptions resulting in a constant width impact corridor. In actuality, however, the ground damage footprint of obliquely entering asteroids is generally roughly elliptical or “butterfly” shaped, with the major axis extending in the cross range direction and the minor axis aligned with ground-track of the meteoroid. Since actual ground footprints for oblique entries may have aspect ratios greater than two or three, the assumption of a circular blast may significantly underestimate the area of the impact swath and the at-risk population. This work develops an engineering model that can be used to quickly estimate the eccentricity of the ground footprint as a function of local impact parameters. This yields vastly improved local estimates of the corridor width and can significantly enhance the accuracy of risk analysis.

Aftosmis, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1993

(abstract) Scientific Objectivity and the Impact Hazard: Responsible Reporting Versus Crying Wolf

f comets and asteroids on the Earth pose a real hazard, comparable in probability to other hazards which society deems worthy of concern. As such, it is prudent and reasonable to investigate and institute means for evaluation of the exact nature of the hazard and possible means of mitigating the effects of impacts, primarily by preventing their occurrence through orbital deflection. Decisions as to the hazard and possible detection and deflection programs must be made through a rational public discussion of the issues, provided with the best possible information. Unfortunately, some individuals have tended to overstate the problem either in terms of the probability of impact or the expected effects of impacts. The net result of such actions is often to undermine public confidence in those attempting to promote an informal discussion of the impact hazard. This is particularily true in a time of declining budgets for both science and defense, and increased competition for federal R&D dollars. It is thus important that the community find means of promoting responsible actions by the members of the community, and for dealing with public release of information, within the bounds of academic and individual freedom. The purpose of this abstract is to promote a discussion of these issues within the community and to invite additional suggestions for methods to improve the providing of accurate information to the public, the media, and most importantly, to decision makers.

comets asteroids impacts dangers effects scientifi↗
NASA NTRS2005

Satellite and Ground System Solutions at Your Fingertips

In the summer of 1998, the blockbuster action movie Armageddon captivated audiences with a thrilling doomsday plot about a meteor the size of Texas that was racing towards the Earth. Though the premise of the movie was purely fictional, the unfortunate reality is that near-Earth asteroids such as the one portrayed in the film do exist. On December 23, 2004, NASA announced that an asteroid it anticipated to pass near the Earth on April 13, 2029, had been assigned the highest score to date on the universally used Torino Impact Hazard Scale. At first, the flyby distance for the asteroid, dubbed MN4, was uncertain and an Earth impact could not be ruled out. The odds of impact were initially believed to be 1 in 300, high enough to merit special monitoring by astronomers around the world, but were then escalated to 1 in 37 on December 27. NASA officials noted, however, that these odds should not be of public concern, since they were likely to change on a day-to-day basis as new data were received. The officials were correct in their assertion, as any chances of an impact with Earth in 2029 were completely ruled out later that same day. Integral Systems, Inc., a leading provider of satellite ground systems and the first company to offer an integrated suite of commercial-off-the-shelf software products for satellite command and control, is helping NASA keep a careful watch for any close-encountering asteroids with its tracking technology. The company supported the first NASA Discovery mission, the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) program, back in 1996, and has expanded its business by building more ground systems for a greater variety of satellites than any other company in the world. (NASA has since launched seven more Discovery missions, with the eighth lifting off earlier this year.) The experience gained from the company s participation in developing satellite command and control ground systems for the NEAR program has bolstered its flagship product line, the EPOCH Integrated Product Suite (IPS), first featured in Spinoff 1997, and led to the creation of its latest product, the Skylight Direct Broadcast Ground Terminal.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Impact Hazard

The Earth has been subject to hypervelocity impacts from comets and asteroids since its formation, and such impacts have played an important role in the evolution of life on our planet. We now recognize not only the historical role of impacts, but the contemporary hazard posed by such events. In the absence of a complete census of potentially threatening Earth-crossing asteroids or comets (called collectively Near Earth Objects, or NEOs), or even of a comprehensive cur-rent search program to identify NEOs, we can consider the hazard only from a probabilistic perspective. We know the steep power-law relationship between NEO numbers and size, with many more small bodies than large ones. We also know that few objects less than about 50 m in diameter (with kinetic energy near 10 megatons) penetrate the atmosphere and are capable of doing surface damage. But there is a spectrum of possible impact hazards associated with objects from this 10-megaton threshold all the way up to NEOs 5 km or larger in diameter, which are capable of inflicting severe damage on the environment, leading to mass extinction's of species. Detailed analysis has shown that, in general, the larger the object the greater the hazard, even when allowance is made for the infrequency of large impacts. Most of the danger to human life is associated with impacts by objects roughly 2 km or larger (energy greater than 1 million megatons), which can inject sufficient submicrometer dust into the atmosphere to produce a severe short-term global cooling with subsequent loss of crops, leading to starvation. Hazard estimates suggest that the chance of such an event occurring during a human lifetime is about 1:5000, and the global probability of death from such impacts is of the order of 1:20000, values that can be compared with risks associated with other natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and severe storms. However, the impact hazard differs from the others in that it can be largely prevented by a comprehensive survey for threatening objects and the application of technological solutions to deflect or destroy objects that are found to have orbits that will lead to collision with the Earth.

Morrison, David↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 PDC hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2024

Sensitivity Study of Impact Risk Model Results to Thermal Radiation Damage Model for Large Objects

NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessment model assesses the likelihood of potential damage for asteroid impact scenarios. Fast-running models are used to capture the effects of different hazards. This paper looks specifically at local ground damage hazards, including blast overpressure and thermal radiation damage, for large object impact scenarios. A sensitivity study is conducted to determine which parameters, and over what ranges, cause impact risks to become sensitive to thermal damage. Two additional thermal models with different approaches are used for comparison. The study determined the current thermal model is most sensitive to the luminous efficiency parameter that reflects the model’s uncertainty in the amount of energy contributing to the thermal radiation damage. This sensitivity was most apparent for the highest severity damage levels. Comparisons of the three models showed that in addition to sensitivities within the models, the impact risks are also sensitive to the choice of thermal model. The study results were applied to the 2023 Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact scenario and parameter ranges of interest determined. At the serious damage level, luminous efficiencies above 0.006 showed a small chance of thermal playing an important role, while luminous efficiencies above 0.0008 led to thermal playing a significant role at the unsurvivable damage severity level. Study results are used to identify key areas where additional model refinement and better knowledge of asteroid properties may be important for improving damage estimates.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2003

Impacts and evolution: future prospects

The discipline of astrobiology includes the dynamics of biological evolution. One of the major ways that the cosmos influences life is through the catastrophic environmental disruptions caused when comets and asteroids collide with a planet. We now recognize that such impacts have caused mass extinctions and played a major role in determining the evolution of life on Earth. The time-averaged impact flux as a function of projectile energy can be derived from lunar cratering statistics as well as the current population of near Earth asteroids (NEAs). Effects of impacts of various energies can be modeled, using data from historic impacts [such as the Cretaceous-Tertiary (KT) impactor 65 million years ago] and the observed 1994 bombardment of Jupiter by fragments of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9. It is of particular interest to find from such models that the terrestrial environment is highly vulnerable to perturbation from impacts, so that even such a small event as the KT impact (by a projectile 10-15 km in diameter) can lead to a mass extinction. Similar considerations allow us to model the effects of still smaller (and much more likely) impacts, down to the size of the asteroid that exploded over Tunguska in 1908 (energy approximately 10 megatons). Combining the impact flux with estimates of environmental and ecological effects reveals that the greatest contemporary hazard is associated with impactors near 1 million megatons in energy (approximately 2 km in diameter for an asteroid). The current impact hazard is significant relative to other natural hazards, and arguments can be developed to illuminate a variety of public policy issues. The first priority in any plan for defense against impactors is to survey the population of Earth-crossing NEAs and project their orbits forward in time. This is the purpose of the Spaceguard Survey, which has already found more than half of the NEAs >1 km in diameter. If there is an NEA on a collision course with Earth, it can be discovered and the impact predicted with decades or more of warning. It is then possible to consider how to deflect or disrupt the NEA. Unlike other natural hazards, the impact risk can be largely eliminated, given sufficient advanced knowledge to take action against the threatening projectile.

Directed Molecular Evolution↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗
NASA NTRS2002

A Summary of the NASA ISS Space Debris Collision Avoidance Program

Creating and implementing a process for the mitigation of the impact hazards due to cornets and asteroids will prove to be a complex and involved process. The closest similar program is the collision avoidance process currently used for protection of the International Space Station (ISS). This process, in operation for over three years, has many similarities to the NEG risk problem. By reviewing the ISS program, a broader perspective on the complications of and requirements for a NEO risk mitigation program might be obtained. Specifically, any lessons learned and continuing issues of concern might prove useful in the development of a NEO risk assessment and mitigation program.

Frisbee, Joseph↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airburst & Blast Damage Modeling Sensitivities for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Blast overpressure from a high-energy airburst or surface impact is the primary source of damage from potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. There are many sources of uncertainty in evaluating these potential damage risks, both in the approaches used to model the entry, breakup, and airburst behaviors of diverse asteroid properties, and in the blast modeling approaches used to estimate the ground damage from these very large-scale, high-energy events. In this study, we use NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate trends and sensitivities in asteroid airburst altitudes and the resulting blast damage estimates across a range of asteroid sizes. In particular, we show how uncertainties in asteroid breakup behavior and effective airburst altitudes combine with height-of-burst (HOB) blast damage models to produce key sensitivities and trends in the amount of damage expected from different asteroid sizes and airburst altitudes. We show airburst altitude ranges and probabilities stemming from asteroid entry and breakup modeling uncertainties, compare differences between traditional nuclear-based HOB blast models and simulation-based HOB models for larger asteroid energies, and show how the resulting interplay between likely burst altitudes and optimal burst heights affects blast damage trends across different asteroid sizes. Finally, we combine the relative likelihoods of asteroid sizes, airburst altitudes, and resulting blast damage severity to evaluate what airburst regimes pose the highest overall level of risk (when considering both the relative likelihood and scale of potential damage) for a mid-sized asteroid threat scenario. Results show what asteroid size regimes are most sensitive to airburst and blast modeling uncertainties, provide insight into nonintuitive trends in the size and severity of blast damage expected from different airburst events, and highlight where additional blast modeling studies or refinements may help improve future impact risk estimates

ATAP↗
NASA NTRS1996

Planetary Perspective on Life on Early Mars and the Early Earth

Impacts of asteroids and comets posed a major hazard to the continuous existence of early life on Mars as on the Earth. The chief danger was presented by globally distributed ejecta, which for very large impacts takes the form of transient thick rock vapor atmospheres; both planets suffered such impacts repeatedly. The exposed surface on both planets was sterilized when it was quickly heated to the temperature of condensed rock vapor by radiation and rock rain. Shallow water bodies were quickly evaporated and sterilized. Any surviving life must have been either in deep water or well below the surface.

Sleep, Norman H.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Brecciated Chely Abinsk Near-Earth Asteroid and its Catastrophic Air Burst

Determining the hazards of near-Earth asteroid (NEA) impacts has been vexed by a paucity of precise data. Existing estimates of blast damage (e.g., [1]), for example, rely on uncertain impact energies for events like Sikhote-Alin, Tunguska, and Barringer Meteorite Crater. The Chelyabinsk air burst event of 15 February 2013, involving an LL-type NEA, provides an excellent calibration point for enhancing those assessments.

Kring, D. A.↗