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Results for “bayesian methodology”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Risk-Informed Condition Evaluation of Solar-centered Energy Generation and Distribution Networks through Bayesian Learning and Inference

We develop a methodology based on Bayesian inference over Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGMs) to understand and quantify risk in solar-centered grids using targeted measurements and learned system behavior. Being non-prescriptive but, rather, able to infer system behavior and, ultimately, address risk queries from data, our machine learning-type paradigm is tailored for diverse topologies and threat scenarios often associated with distributed energy generation and photovoltaic distributed energy resources (PV-DERs) in particular. We describe algorithmic processes for: (i) learning the structure of PGMs that result from attack-prone PV-DER-proliferated distribution systems, (ii) quantifying cause-effect relationships, and (iii) evaluating risk queries based on diverse evidence. The contributions are illustrated on a residential grid subject to output impairment attacks on its PV-DER infrastructure.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Contaminant Source Identification from Finite Sensor Data: Perron–Frobenius Operator and Bayesian Inference

Sensors in the built environment ensure safety and comfort by tracking contaminants in the occupied space. In the event of contaminant release, it is important to use the limited sensor data to rapidly and accurately identify the release location of the contaminant. Identification of the release location will enable subsequent remediation as well as evacuation decision-making. In previous work, we used an operator theoretic approach—based on the Perron–Frobenius (PF) operator—to estimate the contaminant concentration distribution in the domain given a finite amount of streaming sensor data. In the current work, the approach is extended to identify the most probable contaminant release location. The release location identification is framed as a Bayesian inference problem. The Bayesian inference approach requires considering multiple release location scenarios, which is done efficiently using the discrete PF operator. The discrete PF operator provides a fast, effective and accurate model for contaminant transport modeling. The utility of our PF-based Bayesian inference methodology is illustrated using single-point release scenarios in both two and three-dimensional cases. The method provides a fast, accurate, and efficient framework for real-time identification of contaminant source location.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian analysis for estimating statistical parameter distributions of elasto-viscoplastic material models

High temperature design methods rely on constitutive models for inelastic deformation and failure typically calibrated against the mean of experimental data without considering the associated scatter. Variability may arise from the experimental data acquisition process, from heat-to-heat material property variations, or both and need to be accurately captured to predict parameter bounds leading to efficient component design. Applying the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to produce statistical models capturing the underlying uncertainty in the experimental data is an area of ongoing research interest. This work varies aspects of the Bayesian MCMC method and explores their effect on the posterior parameter distributions for a uniaxial elasto-viscoplastic damage model using synthetically generated reference data. From our analysis with the uniaxial inelastic model we determine that an informed prior distribution including different types of test conditions results in more accurate posterior parameter distributions. The parameter posterior distributions, however, do not improve when increasing the number of similar experimental data. Additionally, changing the amount of scatter in the data affects the quality of the posterior distributions, especially for the less sensitive model parameters. Moreover, we perform a sensitivity study of the model parameters against the likelihood function prior to the Bayesian analysis. The results of the sensitivity analysis help to determine the reliability of the posterior distributions and reduce the dimensionality of the problem by fixing the insensitive parameters. The comprehensive study described in this work demonstrates how to efficiently apply the Bayesian MCMC methodology to capture parameter uncertainties in high temperature inelastic material models. Quantifying these uncertainties in inelastic models will improve high temperature engineering design practices and lead to safer, more effective component designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling multi-fidelity xRAGE with machine learning for graded inner shell design optimization in double shell capsules

Bayesian optimization has shown promise for the design optimization of inertial confinement fusion targets. Specifically, in Vazirani et al. [Phys. Plasmas 28 , 122709 (2021)], optimal designs for double shell capsules with graded inner shells were identified using one-dimensional xRAGE simulation yield calculations. While the machine learning models were able to accurately learn and predict one-dimensional simulation target performance, using simulations with higher fidelity would improve design optimization and better match with the expected experimental performance. However, higher fidelity physics modeling, i.e., two-dimensional xRAGE simulations, requires significantly larger computational time/cost, usually at least an order of magnitude, in comparison with one-dimensional simulations. This study presents a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization, in which the machine learning model leverages low-fidelity (one-dimensional xRAGE) and high-fidelity (two-dimensional xRAGE) simulations to more accurately predict “pre-shot” target performance with respect to the expected experimental performance. By building a multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization framework coupled with xRAGE, the low-fidelity and high-fidelity simulations are able to inform one another, such that we have: (1) improved physics modeling in comparison with using low-fidelity simulations alone, (2) reduced computational time/cost in comparison with using high-fidelity simulations alone, and (3) more confidence in the expected performance of optimized targets during real-world experiments. In the future, we plan to use this robust multi-fidelity Bayesian optimization methodology to expedite the design of graded inner shells further and eventually full capsules as a part of the current double shell campaign at the National Ignition Facility.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deterministic and Monte Carlo Nuclear Data Adjustment Methods [Slides]

For the Bayesian Monte Carlo methodology, a need to understand convergence of the posterior moments as a function of the number of parameter realizations is required. In high-dimensional systems, it can be very costly to sample entire parameter space and perform functional evaluation for every realization. Bayesian Monte Carlo allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and prior/posterior PDF shape. The Bayesian Stochastic Collocation Method is a deterministic approach to “sample” the parameter space. It allows one to relax the GLLS approximations of model linearity and posterior PDF shape. Higher-order posterior moments (i.e., skewness, kurtosis, etc.) can be studied through polynomial expansion. Tensor product quadrature scales poorly and can use sparse grid quadrature methods.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Kβ X-ray Emission Spectra Analysis Using Bayesian Optimization

The Kβ X-ray emission spectrum of 3 d transition metals is rich with electronic and structural information due to strong exchange interactions with the valence shell of the metal, and has become crucial for understanding their spin and oxidation states. The spectrum is commonly treated using crystal-field multiplet theory, a semi-empirical theory that uses tunable parameters to control the strength of the effects present in X-ray emission spectroscopy (XES). However, determining the experimental values of these parameters remains a challenge. We present a methodology that applies Bayesian optimization to crystal-field multiplet theory to determine parameter values. The algorithm is tested on the X-ray emission spectra of a collection of Mn, Co, and Ni oxides. We are able to find optimal values for the four most impactful parameters: Slater−Condon reduction factors F dd , F pd , and G pd , and crystal field splitting 10 Dq . The algorithm produces significantly improved accuracy compared to current analysis methods, and probes interparameter dependencies by modeling the error landscape. This advancement enhances XES analysis by offering an approach of obtaining quantitative electronic structural information on 3 d transition metal valence shells, facilitating applications across various scientific fields.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2026

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian experimental design and parameter estimation for ultrafast spin dynamics

Abstract Advanced experimental measurements are crucial for driving theoretical developments and unveiling novel phenomena in condensed matter and materials physics, which often suffer from the scarcity of large-scale facility resources, such as x-ray or neutron scattering centers. To address these limitations, we introduce a methodology that leverages the Bayesian optimal experimental design paradigm to efficiently uncover key quantum spin fluctuation parameters from x-ray photon fluctuation spectroscopy (XPFS) data. Our method is compatible with existing theoretical simulation pipelines and can also be used in combination with fast machine learning surrogate models in the event that real-time simulations are unfeasible. Our numerical benchmarks demonstrate the superior performance in predicting model parameters and in delivering more informative measurements within limited experimental time. Our method can be adapted to many different types of experiments beyond XPFS and spin fluctuation studies, facilitating more efficient data collection and accelerating scientific discoveries.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Selecting Critical Scenarios of DER Adoption in Distribution Grids Using Bayesian Optimization

We develop a new methodology to select scenarios of DER adoption most critical for distribution grids. Anticipating risks of future voltage and line flow violations due to additional PV adopters is central for utility investment planning but continues to rely on deterministic or ad hoc scenario selection. We propose a highly efficient search framework based on multi-objective Bayesian Optimization. We treat underlying grid stress metrics as computationally expensive black-box functions, approximated via Gaussian Process surrogates and design an acquisition function based on probability of scenarios being Pareto-critical across a collection of line- and bus-based violation objectives. Our approach provides a statistical guarantee and offers an order of magnitude speed-up relative to a conservative exhaustive search. Case studies on realistic feeders with 200-400 buses demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of our approach.

Mulkin, Olivier↗
DOE OSTI2020

Transfer Learning for HVAC System Fault Detection

Faults in HVAC systems degrade thermal comfort and energy efficiency in buildings and have received significant attention from the research community, with data driven methods gaining in popularity. Yet the lack of labeled data, such as normal versus faulty operational status, has slowed the application of machine learning to HVAC systems. In addition, for any particular building, there may be an insufficient number of observed faults over a reasonable amount of time for training. To overcome these challenges, we present a transfer methodology for a novel Bayesian classifier designed to distinguish between normal operations and faulty operations. The key is to train this classifier on a building with a large amount of sensor and fault data (for example, via simulation or standard test data) then transfer the classifier to a new building using a small amount of normal operations data from the new building. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept for transferring a classifier between architecturally similar buildings in different climates and show few samples are required to maintain classification precision and recall.

transfer learning, Building HVAC, Bayesian framewo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimating reaction parameters in mechanism-enabled population balance models of nanoparticle size distributions: A Bayesian inverse problem approach

In order to quantitatively predict nano- as well as other particle-size distributions, one needs to have both a mathematical model and estimates of the parameters that appear in these models. Here, we show how one can use Bayesian inversion to obtain statistical estimates for the parameters that appear in recently derived mechanism-enabled population balance models (ME-PBM) of nanoparticle growth. The Bayesian approach addresses the question of “how well do we know our parameters, along with their uncertainties?.” The results reveal that Bayesian inversion statistical analysis on an example, prototype $\mathrm{lr(0)_n}$ nanoparticle formation system allows one to estimate not just the most likely rate constants and other parameter values, but also their SDs, confidence intervals, and other statistical information. Moreover, knowing the reliability of the mechanistic model's parameters in turn helps inform one about the reliability of the proposed mechanism, as well as the reliability of its predictions. Importantly, the paper can also be seen as a tutorial with the additional goal of achieving a “Gold Standard” Bayesian inversion ME-PBM benchmark that others can use as a control to check their own use of this methodology for other systems of interest throughout nature. Overall, the results provide strong support for the hypothesis that there is substantial value in using a Bayesian inversion methodology for parameter estimation in particle formation systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Development of a framework for sequential Bayesian design of experiments: Application to a pilot-scale solvent-based CO 2 capture process

In this paper, a methodology is developed for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) for process systems and applied to a solvent-based CO 2 capture system. In this approach, the prior knowledge of the system is used to prioritize process data collection at specific operating conditions. These data are then incorporated into a Bayesian inference methodology for updating a stochastic model by refining estimations of its underlying parameters, and the updated model is then used to generate the next set of test runs. Thus, the new knowledge obtained from the data is used to guide subsequent iterations of the experimental runs, ensuring that the overall data collection is maximally informative given that most experimental campaigns, especially at pilot or higher-scale plants, are costly, time-consuming, and resource-limited. The test run objective for this work was to minimize the maximum model prediction uncertainty for key output variables, but the methodology is generic and can be readily applied to other test run objectives. This methodology is applied to an aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA) pilot plant campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama, USA. The SDoE framework was utilized for two iterations, while collecting 18 sets of data representing different process conditions, and this resulted in an overall average reduction in uncertainty of approximately 50% in the prediction of CO 2 capture percentage. Moreover, 11 additional data sets were obtained with variation of absorber packing height for further model validation. This work shows the capability of the SDoE framework to maximize learning given limited resources, allowing for the reduction of model uncertainty, which is of great importance for many applications including reduction of technical risk associated with scale-up and economic analysis.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Fast increased fidelity samplers for approximate Bayesian Gaussian process regression

Gaussian processes (GPs) are common components in Bayesian non-parametric models having a rich methodological literature and strong theoretical grounding. The use of exact GPs in Bayesian models is limited to problems containing several thousand observations due to their prohibitive computational demands. We develop a posterior sampling algorithm using H-matrix approximations that scales at O(n log 2 n). We show that this approximation’s Kullback-Leibler divergence to the true posterior can be made arbitrarily small. Though multidimensional GPs could be used with our algorithm, d-dimensional surfaces are modeled as tensor products of univariate GPs to minimize the cost of matrix construction and maximize computational efficiency. We illustrate the performance of this fast increased fidelity approximate GP, FIFA-GP, using both simulated and non-synthetic data sets

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Variational Inference Approach to Inverse Problems with Gamma Hyperpriors

Hierarchical models with gamma hyperpriors provide a flexible, sparse-promoting framework to bridge L 1 and L 2 regularizations in Bayesian formulations to inverse problems. Despite the Bayesian motivation for these models, existing methodologies are limited to maximum a posteriori estimation. The potential to perform uncertainty quantification has not yet been realized. This paper introduces a variational iterative alternating scheme for hierarchical inverse problems with gamma hyperpriors. The proposed variational inference approach yields accurate reconstruction, provides meaningful uncertainty quantification, and is easy to implement. In addition, it lends itself naturally to conduct model selection for the choice of hyperparameters. Here, we illustrate the performance of our methodology in several computed examples, including a deconvolution problem and sparse identification of dynamical systems from time series data.

Bayesian shrinkage↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Review of Bayesian Networks for Spatial Data

We report Bayesian networks are a popular class of multivariate probabilistic models as they allow for the translation of prior beliefs about conditional dependencies between variables to be easily encoded into their model structure. Due to their widespread usage, they are often applied to spatial data for inferring properties of the systems under study and also generating predictions for how these systems may behave in the future. We review published research on methodologies for representing spatial data with Bayesian networks and also summarize the application areas for which Bayesian networks are employed in the modeling of spatial data. We find that a wide variety of perspectives are taken, including a GIS-centric focus on efficiently generating geospatial predictions, a statistical focus on rigorously constructing graphical models controlling for spatial correlation, as well as a range of problem-specific heuristics for mitigating the effects of spatial correlation and dependency arising in spatial data analysis. Special attention is also paid to potential future directions for integration of Bayesian networks with spatial processes.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of stagnation performance metrics in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments using Bayesian data assimilation

Here we present a new analysis methodology that allows for the self-consistent integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear measurements, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power detectors to determine the primary stagnation parameters, such as temperature, pressure, stagnation volume, and mix fraction in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. The analysis uses a simplified model of the stagnation plasma in conjunction with a Bayesian inference framework to determine the most probable configuration that describes the experimental observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. We validate the approach by using a range of tests including analytic and three-dimensional MHD models. An ensemble of MagLIF experiments is analyzed, and the generalized Lawson criterion χ is estimated for all experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Privacy policy robustness to reverse engineering

Differential privacy policies allow one to preserve data privacy while sharing and analyzing data. However, these policies are susceptible to an array of attacks. In particular, often a portion of the data desired to be privacy protected is exposed online. Access to these pre-privacy protected data samples can then be used to reverse engineer the privacy policy. With knowledge of the generating privacy policy, an attacker can use machine learning to approximate the full set of originating data. Bayesian inference is one method for reverse engineering both model and model parameters. We present a methodology for evaluating and ranking privacy policy robustness to Bayesian inference-based reverse engineering, and demonstrated this method across data with a variety of temporal trends.

Kusne, Aaron Gilad↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty-aware photovoltaic generation estimation through fusion of physics with harmonics information using Bayesian neural networks

We develop an aggregate photovoltaic generation estimation methodology that uses diverse inputs and can reason on its current input-dependent predictive uncertainty. Named PVPHEst, for PhotoVoltaic Physics- & Harmonics-driven Estimator, the resulting tool is intelligently weighing and fusing information carried by the output of physics models, harmonics, and line sensors, using Bayesian neural networks and related techniques aimed at solving machine learning problems with intrinsic uncertainty quantification. As each of the three input classes carries heterogeneous information that only sheds light on one facet of the estimation problem but its value can diminish in the face of diverse grid phenomena, PV-PHEst with its estimation and uncertainty reasoning capabilities perform a nontrivial and potentially mission-critical task of value to grid operators.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗