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Results for “bottom-up cost model”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2026

Testing and Validation of Wireless Communication Architecture for Heliostat Fields: SIPS Final Report

This work focuses on the development and testing of a low-cost wireless communication system for heliostat fields, enabling significant capital costs reductions for concentrating solar thermal systems. Outputs of this work include a working demonstration of a multi-node communication system, clear reporting of system performance, and technical documentation of system development and architecture for reproducibility. Through this process, an open-source repository was created for manufacturing hardware at ~$30/heliostat. The system includes software for cybersecurity, achieving sub-second communication latencies and derisking of hardware for eventual scale-up to tens of thousands of heliostats. While the system is not currently off-the-shelf ready, there is now a clearly defined pathway for scaling up and completing the commercial development process.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sensitivity Analysis of Numerical Modeling Input Parameters on Wind Turbine Loads in Deterministic Transient Load Cases

Aero-hydro-elastic-servo numerical models used to design and analyze wind turbines are based on thousands of variable input parameters that dictate the inflow, aerodynamic, structural, and control characteristics of the system as well as sea state, hydrodynamic, and mooring characteristics for fixed-bottom and floating offshore wind turbines. Each of these parameters has some level of uncertainty, which can significantly impact the predicted loads. Understanding the uncertainty in the inputs is critical to understanding the uncertainty in the outputs. This work demonstrates a screening technique to identify which parameters ultimate loads are most sensitive to so that more focus can be given to quantifying the possible range of those parameters. This technique has been demonstrated previously for different turbine and load case types and is extended here for a floating offshore wind turbine in design load cases with transient events both in the inflow and operations. Each load case features a deterministic gust, including variations in wind speed, direction, and shear. Load cases are considered with an operating turbine as well as with prescribed fault, startup, and shutdown procedures. The study found that key input parameters with a large impact on loads include the length of the gust, the magnitude of direction change and speed in the gust, the initial wind speed, and the shape of the gust profile.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2026

Queued Up: 2026 Edition, Characteristics of Power Plants Seeking Transmission Interconnection As of the End of 2025 [Slides]

Electric transmission system operators (ISOs, RTOs, or utilities) require proposed power plants seeking to connect to the transmission grid to undergo a series of impact studies before they can be built. This process establishes what new transmission equipment or upgrades may be needed before a project can connect to the system and assigns the costs of that equipment. The lists of projects in this process are known as “interconnection queues”. In collaboration with https://www.interconnection.fyi. Berkeley Lab compiled, aggregated, and cleaned interconnection queue data from >50 transmission grid operators (7 ISO/RTOs and 50 non-ISO balancing areas), which collectively represent ~98% of currently installed U.S. electric generating capacity.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coalition for Community-Supported Affordable Geothermal Energy Systems (C2SAGES)

The C2SAGES project evaluated the feasibility of a community geothermal system for the planned Windy Ridge affordable housing development in Hinesburg, Vermont. Led by GTI Energy with Vermont Gas Systems, LN Consulting, NREL, and Frontier Energy, the work assessed technical design, energy performance, costs, business models, community engagement, maintenance, workforce development, and permitting. The proposed system was designed to serve 100% of the development’s heating, cooling, and domestic hot water loads. Compared with a baseline using air-source heat pumps and natural gas water heating, the geothermal system was estimated to reduce HVAC and domestic hot water energy use by about 45% to 48%, lower operating and maintenance costs, and reduce 30-year life-cycle costs by 37% for Phase 1 and 10% for Phase 2. Technical testing and modeling indicated that the Windy Ridge site is suitable for a community-scale geothermal system. The project also developed borehole field layouts, piping concepts, pump house designs, controls, maintenance plans, and supporting engineering drawings. The business model analysis found that first cost, ownership structure, and customer affordability remain major deployment challenges. Utility-led maintenance and operation were viewed favorably, but traditional utility cost-recovery models may require subsidy or revised financing structures to be practical for affordable housing. Community engagement highlighted the need for clear public education, transparent financing, reliable long-term maintenance, trained technicians, and the potential to pair geothermal systems with weatherization. Overall, the report concludes that community geothermal is technically feasible and offers meaningful energy, emissions, and life-cycle cost benefits, but broader deployment will depend on workable financing models and workforce readiness.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Humins-Derived Hard Carbon as a Low-Cost Material for Sodium-Ion Battery Anodes

The growing demand for sodium-ion batteries (SIBs) in grid storage underscores the need for electrode materials that balance performance and cost, including sustainable and robust carbon sources. The equitable and abundant distribution of materials for SIBs, along with their superior low-temperature performance, safety, and fast-charging capability, further distinguishes them from lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Hard carbon (HC) is the state-of-the-art anode for SIBs, but current commercial HC production is localized mostly to one region of the world, raising concerns about supply chain vulnerability, critical material dependency, and environmental aspects. Here, the first demonstration of humins, an abundant biorefinery byproduct, as a precursor for HC anodes for sodium-ion storage is reported. Humins were carbonized at 1100 degrees C-1300 degrees C, and the resulting materials were subjected to comprehensive materials and electrochemical characterization. Among the temperatures studied, humins-derived hard carbon synthesized at 1200 degrees C delivers an initial reversible capacity 270mA h g-1 , with stable cycling performance up to 500 cycles and excellent rate capability, representing the optimal performance. This study establishes humins as a promising and low-cost carbon source that provides a route to mitigate supply chain risks and valorizes an underutilized biorefinery waste stream for high-performance SIB anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Prime Time for Model-Predictive Control? Assessing the Technical and Market Readiness of Advanced Controls in Buildings

Despite three decades of extensive research and field testing that have consistently validated the benefits of Model Predictive Control (MPC) in building applications, the technology has seen limited market adoption. This paper evaluates the readiness of MPC for widespread deployment, showcases recent demonstrations and field tests across diverse building types, including residential, small commercial, large commercial, and campus settings. Our results demonstrate that MPC can optimize system operations to achieve load shifting, minimize curtailment of on-site generation, and reduce energy costs by up to 80 %, while maintaining or improving occupant comfort. We also show that MPC can effectively control large assets, such as MW-sized thermal storage systems, and respond to dynamic pricing signals. However, achieving scale remains difficult due to labor-intensive workflows, reliance on a “PhD-in-the-loop” for MPC design and maintenance, susceptibility to fragile data infrastructure, and persistent workforce education and acceptance barriers. To bridge this gap, we outline a transition from bespoke, labor intensive prototypes toward streamlined, segment-targeted deployment strategies that leverage model templates, semantic tools, and generative AI. By automating control configuration and reducing engineering effort, these recommendations provide a pathway for transforming successful research demonstrations into scalable, market ready solutions for MPC-based controls.

Pritoni, Marco↗
DOE OSTI2026

Refractory-based thermal energy storage for industrial process heat: one-dimensional modeling, control, and optimization

The variable and weather-dependent output of wind and solar power plants present a substantial challenge for planning and operating electricity-systems, particularly in the absence of cost-effective and dispatchable energy storage technologies. This study investigates a high-temperature, electrically heated, refractory-based thermal energy storage (RTES) system that stores electrical energy as sensible heat in dense ceramic bricks over the 950–1800 °C range. The stored heat can be discharged as a controlled hot-gas stream for industrial heating, fuel substitution in high-temperature processes, or electricity generation. The main novelty is a comprehensive modelling, control, mapping, and optimization framework that integrates one-dimensional transient gas–solid heat transfer, fan-assisted discharge, bypass-flow regulation, reheating logic, fan-power evaluation, insulation-loss assessment, and genetic-algorithm-based design optimization. The model uses feedback from outlet temperature and delivered power to regulate discharge, while a two-stage genetic algorithm optimizes brick-channel geometry, gas-flow operation, and multilayer insulation thicknesses. Storage capacities below 50 MWh and discharge powers of 5–30 MW are analyzed to evaluate hold time, thermal delivery, fan-power penalty, heat loss, state-of-charge evolution, and indicative capital cost. Results demonstrate that optimized and well-insulated refractory-based thermal energy storage units can provide stable, efficient, and repeatable heat delivery over multiple discharge cycles. The generated performance and cost maps support modular refractory thermal energy storage as a practical option for large-scale integration of wind and solar generation and for high-temperature industrial process heat.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surface deposition of nanometer scale carbon structures on Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ using a low-cost scanning electron microscope

In this work, we investigate optically active nanostructures on Bi 2 Sr 2 CaCu 2 O 8+δ (BSCCO). The nanostructures are constructed from carbon nanocrystals formed using the electron beam of a scanning electron microscope to locally decompose residual hydrocarbons at the BSCCO surface. Atomic force microscopy is used to characterize the dimensions of these structures as a function of beam exposure time. This technique has been used to induce localized intercalation to form carbon nanoparticles up to tens of nanometers into a variety of 2D materials. Cross-sectional scanning transmission electron microscopy in BSCCO shows the presence of these carbon deposits on the surface, but there is no evidence they penetrate into the BSCCO substrate. Therefore, this technique is not suitable for localized intercalation in BSCCO, and it does have promise as a cost-effective approach to pattern nanometer scale etch stops.

2D materials↗
DOE OSTI2026

Evaluating alternative steam generation pathways in the food industry

Steam generation in the food sector requires substantial energy and cost expenditures, requiring nearly half of its energy intake. Here, we used life cycle assessment and life cycle cost assessment to investigate the cost and energy impacts of steam generating alternatives: NG, biomass and hydrogen boilers and grid-supplied and self-generated electric steam generation systems (electric boilers, renewable thermal energy storage and industrial heat pumps). The analysis starts with a set of average U.S. conditions, where biomass boilers are the most cost-competitive alternative to NG. In a series of scenarios beyond average conditions, the analysis shows energy procurement costs dominate the total life cycle cost for all technologies and, unfortunately, are highly variable geographically and temporally, significantly affecting the viability of the alternatives. Results show that site-energy consumption ranges from 0.3 MMBtu/klb for industrial heat pumps to 1.6 MMBtu/klb for biomass boilers, with heat pumps achieving up to 78% lower energy use compared to natural gas systems. For the steam costs, the results show a range between $\$$8 and $\$$50/klb for NG, with biomass following closely ($\$$11 – $\$$44/klb) and grey hydrogen and IHP next ($\$$13 – $\$$33/klb and $\$$6 - $\$$78/klb), with cost reductions if IHP's cooling is utilized. Factors like operating hours, the need for cooling, and the ability to negotiate utility rates complicate the decision, making site-specific analyses critical. Therefore, we present a decision-making matrix to help manufacturers identify which steam generating technology is the best business decision for their situation. Overall, these results highlight the importance of steam generation for the facility's organizational goals, as well as the criticality of conducting individual site analyses.

Biomass boilers↗
DOE OSTI2026

Process-level cost analysis of hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace structural components

Hybrid manufacturing is a promising route for producing complex aerospace components, yet systematic cost benchmarking across multiple additive-subtractive pathways remains limited. This study presents a comprehensive process-based cost analysis of seven hybrid manufacturing routes, including laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF), powder- and wire-directed energy deposition (DED), wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), additive friction stir deposition (AFSD), metal binder jetting (MBJ), and agility forging, followed by scanning and finish machining. Parametric cost models incorporating direct material, labor, and energy costs were developed. L-PBF results are discussed in detail for a pickle fork component and directly compared with commercial pricing. Across all hybrid routes, labor emerged as the dominant cost driver, contributing more than 70% of total manufacturing cost in some cases. AFSD exhibited the lowest cost for aluminum components, with MBJ being its 316 L stainless steel counterpart, after accounting for geometric scaling. Benchmarking against industrial quotes suggests that hybrid manufacturing can achieve cost levels comparable to those of commercial services, although labor-intensive processes exhibit greater deviation. The analysis highlights automation of material handling, setup, and supervision as key opportunities for improving economic competitiveness. Overall, the proposed framework provides a quantitative basis for evaluating and optimizing hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace applications.

Baruah, Sweta [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000174256207)↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Practical Tips for Setting Up an LS-DYNA MAT_213 Analysis

Since 2012, NASA has actively contributed to the development and application of the LS-DYNA MAT_213 material model to predict responses under dynamic loading events. This presentation provides a high-level overview of MAT_213 and captures practical tips and suggestions for using it.

MAT_213↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Time-dependent scenario modeling for the ST-E1 fusion power plant

ST-E1 is a low aspect ratio fusion power plant being designed by Tokamak Energy targeting 1.5 GW of fusion power. Characterization of the ST-E1 flat-top scenario is described elsewhere McNamara et al (2026 Nucl. Fusion 66 086008); here we focus on addressing the question of how to ramp-up the ST-E1 plasma from an initial state following breakdown and flux-surface formation to the target flat-top state. Being low-aspect ratio, the available solenoid flux of ST-E1 is limited. Therefore, particular consideration is placed on developing ramp-up scenarios that predominantly use inductive flux provided by external vertical field coils. Through time-dependent modeling with METIS, we show that this is possible when the ramp-up is performed at relatively high plasma density: although auxiliary current drive efficiency is reduced, this is significantly outweighed by (1) higher electron-ion collisional equilibration, (2) higher fusion power once ions become sufficiently hot, (3) higher poloidal beta for increased vertical-field flux, and (4) potentially favorable exhaust compatibilities. Ultimately, we show the target ST-E1 flat-top performance can be reached after a ramp-up period lasting 150 s using less than 40 Vs of solenoid flux (with vertical field providing ∼ 90 Vs of flux). The sensitivity to model assumptions are presented, with the general observation that deleterious effects can be mitigated through minor alterations of the auxiliary power temporal waveform and/or total auxiliary power level. The impact of a solenoid and the auxiliary power mix (electron cyclotron heating only versus electron and ion cyclotron heating) on the ST-E1 ramp-up success are also discussed in appendices. On this latter topic, we show that the effect of direct-ion heating during ramp-up is obscured by the uncertainty in the pedestal dynamics, identifying a clear line of future work required to make a definite decision on the ST-E1 auxiliary power mix.

current ramp-up↗
DOE OSTI2026

Netload Range Cost Curves for Coordinated Transmission-Distribution Planning Under DER Growth Uncertainty

The increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) requires better coordination between transmission and distribution (T&D) planning to ensure system security and cost efficiency. However, misaligned planning horizons, computational burdens, and privacy concerns hinder effective coordination, leading to either underutilized resources caused by overinvestments or reliability risks due to underinvestment. To address this challenge, we introduce netload range cost curves (NRCCs), a novel approach for managing long-term DER growth uncertainty through T&D coordination, while preserving existing data-sharing and regulatory structures. NRCCs provide pairs of (i) peak substation netload guarantees and (ii) corresponding distribution upgrade options and costs, enabling their seamless integration into transmission planning workflows. To compute NRCCs efficiently, we develop a transmission-aware distribution network planning (TADNP), which is subsequently integrated to an iterative computation procedure. These NRCCs are then embedded into an NRCC-informed transmission planning model to enable resource-efficient coordination. We illustrate our proposed approach with a case study based on realistic distribution and transmission systems in the San Francisco Bay Area, California. Our results indicate the possibility of dramatic savings in transmission investments by incorporating the proposed NRCC-integrated T&D coordination framework.

Li, Yujia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Developing affordable and efficient heating devices for enhanced live cell imaging in confocal microscopy

Temperature control is crucial for live cell imaging, particularly in studies involving plant responses to high ambient temperatures and thermal stress. This study presents the design, development, and testing of two cost-effective heating devices tailored for confocal microscopy applications: an aluminum heat plate and a wireless mini-heater. The aluminum heat plate, engineered to integrate seamlessly with the standard 160 mm × 110 mm microscope stage, supports temperatures up to 36°C, suitable for studies in the range of non-stressful warm temperatures (e.g., 25-27°C forArabidopsis thaliana) and moderate heat stress (e.g., 30-36°C forA. thaliana). We also developed a wireless mini-heater that offers rapid, precise heating directly at the sample slide, with a temperature increase rate over 30 times faster than the heat plate. The wireless heater effectively maintained target temperatures up to 50°C, ideal for investigating severe heat stress and heat shock responses in plants. Both devices performed well in controlled studies, including the real-time analysis of heat shock protein accumulation and stress granule formation inA. thaliana. Our designs are effective and affordable, with total construction costs lower than $300. This accessibility makes them particularly valuable for small laboratories with limited funding. Future improvements could include enhanced heat uniformity, humidity control to mitigate evaporation, and more robust thermal management to minimize focus drift during extended imaging sessions. These modifications would further solidify the utility of our heating devices in live cell imaging, offering researchers reliable, budget-friendly tools for exploring plant thermal biology.

Plant Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantum mechanical dataset of 836k neutral closed-shell molecules with up to 5 heavy atoms from C, N, O, F, Si, P, S, Cl, Br

Abstract We introduce the Vector-QM24 (VQM24) dataset comprehensively covering all possible neutral closed-shell small organic and inorganic molecules with up to five heavy (p-block) atoms: C, N, O, F, Si, P, S, Cl, Br. All valid stoichiometries, Lewis-rule-consistent graphs, and stable conformers (identified via GFN2-xTB) were enumerated combinatorially, yielding 577k conformational isomers spanning 258k constitutional isomers and 5,599 unique stoichiometries. DFT (ωB97X-D3/cc-pVDZ) optimizations were performed for all, and diffusion quantum Monte Carlo (DMC@PBE0(ccECP/cc-pVQZ)) energies are provided for 10,793 lowest-energy conformers with up to 4 heavy atoms. VQM24 includes structures, vibrational modes, rotational constants, thermodynamic properties (Gibbs free energies, enthalpies, ZPVEs, entropies, heat capacities), and electronic properties such as atomization, electron interaction, exchange-correlation, dispersion energies, multipole moments (dipole to hexadecapole), alchemical potentials, Mulliken charges, and wavefunctions. Machine learning models of atomization energies on this dataset reveal significantly higher complexity than QM9, with none achieving chemical accuracy. VQM24 offers a rigorous, high-fidelity benchmark for evaluating quantum machine learning models.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗