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DOE OSTI2024

Navigating the obstacles of carbon-negative technologies

Nine years after the Paris Agreement was adopted, it is clear that negative-emission technologies are required to keep 1.5°C, or even 2°C, of global warming in reach. Yet carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies remain rife with political, technical, economic, environmental, and geographic challenges. Here, this Voices surveys the pitfalls of incorporating carbon-negative technologies into climate mitigation plans and asks: how can we navigate around the challenges to make CDR a reliable component of climate mitigation?

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technical and Community Foundations for High-Integrity CDR MRV Standards (Final Report)

The goal of this project (hereafter referred to as the “umbrella project”) was to establish cross-cutting technical foundations for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) accounting decisions. These cross-cutting and science driven technical foundations are necessary to increase trust in standards-setting and protocol development. According to key stakeholders in the industry, establishment of trusted standards is necessary to unlock and catalyze investment in the CDR industry as well as commercialization and deployment of verified, accepted high quality CDR technologies. Additionally, our umbrella project served as the lead coordinator of the cohort of three additional CDR pathway-focused projects funded under this award. In this role, we brought together the project teams to share insights, industry feedback, and approaches to CDR accounting standards development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model-Based Energy and Cost Analysis of Direct Air Capture Using ePTFE-Based Laminate-Structured Gas–Solid Contactors

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies will play a significant role in limiting global warming if implemented on a large scale. Direct air capture (DAC) is a scalable approach for removing atmospheric carbon, yet the true scope of its scalability remains unclear due to the early stage of technology development and high first plant costs. This study provides groundwork for understanding the technoeconomic trade-offs in developing DAC systems using laminate-structured gas–solid contactors, encompassing the analysis of both contactor and process design spaces. The robust mass transfer and process models outlined in this study provide tools for evaluating DAC processes and designing DAC plants based on cost and energy analysis. First, the key contactor geometrical parameters are identified to understand the CO 2 productivity–energy demand trade-offs, where geometries yielding higher mass transfer rates can achieve higher CO 2 productivities at the expense of energy consumption by fans and steam use. Next, a detailed process parametric study is conducted for DAC systems coupled with steam-assisted temperature-vacuum swing adsorption (S-TVSA) to visualize the trade-offs in the multidimensional design space. The main cost driver dramatically changes over different process conditions, but the operating cost prevailed on the Pareto front, with potential to operate as low as 150 $/tonne-CO 2 (within the cost range of 148–504 $/tonne-CO 2 in this study where the DAC system is coupled with industrial facilities for steam production).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biochar as a carbon dioxide removal strategy in integrated long-run mitigation scenarios

Abstract Limiting global warming to under 2 °C would require stringent mitigation and likely additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to compensate for otherwise unabated emissions. Because of its technology readiness, relatively low cost, and potential co-benefits, the application of biochar to soils could be an effective CDR strategy. We use the Global Change Analysis Model, a global multisector model, to analyze biochar deployment in the context of energy system uses of biomass with CDR under different carbon price trajectories. We find that biochar can create an annual sink of up to 2.8 GtCO 2 per year, reducing global mean temperature increases by an additional 0.5%–1.8% across scenarios by 2100 for a given carbon price path. In our scenarios, biochar’s deployment is dependent on potential crop yield gains and application rates, and the competition for resources with other CDR measures. We find that biochar can serve as a competitive CDR strategy, especially at lower carbon prices when bioenergy with carbon capture and storage is not yet economical.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Carbon Management Projects (CONNECT) Database and Explorer

Overview The Carbon Management Projects (CONNECT) Toolkit is an online exploratory visualization tool developed by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) with support from other federal agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT). It provides a single point of access to authoritative information on federal agency investment in a portfolio of research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) projects that have been publicly announced to advance technologies for point source carbon capture, carbon dioxide removal, transport, storage, and conversion, collectively referred to as carbon management. The RD&D programs covered in this tool are authorized by annual congressional appropriations ("Base Program") and the 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). The tool also incorporates public information on other federal initiatives, such as the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs, and public information released by other government agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) and Primacy States’ Underground Injection Control Class VI permits and EPA’s facility level greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Developed in a geographic information system, the tool organizes carbon management projects into five groups based on the primary technology that a project aims to advance, each visually represented as a digital layer ("carbon management project layer"). Only federally funded projects are included, which can be awarded projects that are completed or ongoing, or projects that have been selected but are currently under negotiation. Project information can be viewed in the map or in the attribute table below it when turned on. In the map view, each project is displayed at either its host site (for field work), where available, or its performer site (project lead's location, further explained in the table below). Host sites and performer sites are represented in distinct icons. Several reference layers offer additional public information on infrastructural and natural resource environment for carbon management. These reference layers, combined with multiple geographical basemaps, enable users to visualize the carbon management project layers in context. Carbon management project information will be updated monthly based on feedback and information availability. Carbon management project layers Point Source Carbon Capture (PSC) This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) from power plants or industrial facilities. Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on capturing CO2 from the atmosphere, including direct air capture (DAC) and DAC hubs, direct ocean capture, enhanced mineralization, and biomass carbon removal and storage. For projects with multiple host sites, each of the sites are displayed individually with the project cost and cost sharing information representing the total for the entire project. Carbon Transport This layer contains DOE- and DOT-funded projects focused on CO2 transport. The Transport Research and Development sublayer contains projects that do not involve physical infrastructure; the Proposed Transport Corridor sublayer contains projects for which either a route for the transport infrastructure has been proposed or a general area for the transport infrastructure has been identified. Carbon Storage This layer contains DOE-funded key projects focused on CO2 storage. For projects with multiple field-work sites, each of the sites are displayed individually on the map with the project cost and cost sharing information representing the overall total for the entire project. Carbon Conversion This layer contains DOE-funded projects focused on converting CO2 into economically valuable products. Reference layers The following layers provide additional information in the geographic proximity of carbon management projects. Users should reference the original sources for more details (weblinks provided below and in pop-up windows on the map). Regional Clean Hydrogen Hub and Facility These layers illustrate the approximate areas of the Regional Clean Hydrogen Hubs announced by DOE's Office of Clean Energy Demonstrations (OCED) and the approximate locations of individual facilities that constitute the hubs (see "Where are the H2Hubs located?" on the webpage linked above). EPA Facility Level GHG Emissions (direct emitter) This layer shows direct CO2 emissions from stationary sources in 2022, using data extracted from EPA's Facility Level Information on GreenHouse gases Tool (FLIGHT). Captured and injected CO2 are not deducted from direct emitters’ total emissions. Contact EPA for additional details. Underground Injection Control Class VI permit/permit application This layer shows the locations of CO2 injection wells that are granted or in the process of applying for an Underground Injection Control Class VI permit by EPA or a Primacy State (currently Louisiana, North Dakota, and Wyoming). The URLs for the permits or permit applications are provided in the pop-up windows associated with the well locations. Contact EPA for additional details. Carbon Storage Resource This layer contains information on prospective CO2 storage resources in saline formations and oil and gas reservoirs provided by the National Carbon Sequestration Database and Geographic Information System (NATCARB) spatial database. Contact NETL for additional details. Existing CO2 pipeline This layer shows active CO2 pipelines based on information digitized from the map issued by the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA). Contact PHMSA for additional details.

Carbon Conversion↗
DOE OSTI2025

Transforming US agriculture for carbon removal with enhanced weathering

Abstract Enhanced weathering (EW) with agriculture uses crushed silicate rocks to drive carbon dioxide removal (CDR) 1,2 . If widely adopted on farmlands, it could help achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 2–4 . Here we show, with a detailed US state-specific carbon cycle analysis constrained by resource provision, that EW deployed on agricultural land could sequester 0.16–0.30 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2050, rising to 0.25–0.49 GtCO 2 yr −1 by 2070. Geochemical assessment of rivers and oceans suggests effective transport of dissolved products from EW from soils, offering CDR on intergenerational timescales. Our analysis further indicates that EW may temporarily help lower ground-level ozone and concentrations of secondary aerosols in agricultural regions. Geospatially mapped CDR costs show heterogeneity across the USA, reflecting a combination of cropland distance from basalt source regions, timing of EW deployment and evolving CDR rates. CDR costs are highest in the first two decades before declining to about US$100–150 tCO 2 −1 by 2050, including for states that contribute most to total national CDR. Although EW cannot be a substitute for emission reductions, our assessment strengthens the case for EW as an overlooked practical innovation for helping the USA meet net-zero 2050 goals 5,6 . Public awareness of EW and equity impacts of EW deployment across the USA require further exploration 7,8 and we note that mobilizing an EW industry at the necessary scale could take decades.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Methods for Measuring Carbon Dioxide Uptake and Permanence: Review and Implications for Macroalgae Aquaculture

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is gaining recognition as a necessary action in addition to emissions reduction to prevent some of the worst effects of climate change. Macroalgae aquaculture has been identified as a potential CDR strategy and significant research investments have been made in this area. This article reviews current methods for monitoring carbon to assess the potential for application in the context of macroalgae aquaculture as a CDR strategy. In total, 382 papers were included in the review and categorized by carbon uptake methods, carbon permanence methods, and comprehensive frameworks for assessing carbon capture. While methods for measuring carbon uptake are well established, methods to assess the permanence of carbon in the natural life cycle of macroalgae and in products following harvest are lacking. To achieve the full benefit of macroalgae cultivation as a climate solution, monitoring, reporting, and verification standards and improved methods for assessing carbon uptake and permanence need to be developed.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Framework to Evaluate the Costs and Potential of Bioenergy in Decarbonization of the U.S. Economy

The long-term strategy of the United States targets reaching economy-wide net-zero emissions by 2050 and a carbon-neutral electricity grid by 2035 (U.S. Department of State and U.S. Executive Office of the President, 2021). Meeting these targets would require considerable changes to the energy system. Some key characteristics of illustrative net-zero energy systems include increased penetration of renewable energy and carbon sources, use of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-abate sectors, and a greater role for energy carriers such as electricity and hydrogen (Davis et al, 2018). Another common feature of such energy systems is the need for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches (Horowitz et al, 2022). Across all these characteristics of net-zero energy systems, bioenergy and biomass feedstock is anticipated to play an important role. Biomass feedstock serves as a renewable carbon source. This can enable conversion of such feedstock into fuels and energy carriers for hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation. Indeed, the U.S. Government has a target to meet all jet fuel demand by 2050 from sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), where biofuel pathways are likely to have an important role (EERE, 2020). Bioenergy is also highly versatile with the possibility to convert feedstock into electricity, hydrogen, liquid fuels, heat or high-value products, based on biomass type, demand and technology availability (Clarke et al, 2022). Combination of bioenergy with CCS can also nominally deliver CDR (Fuhrman et al, 2023). As such, the share of bioenergy is expected to grow by at least five time across scenarios studied for the long-term strategy of the U.S. between 2020 and 2050 (Horowitz et al, 2022). Notwithstanding the role of bioenergy in the energy systems, its deployment, costs and scalability are influenced by a number of factors. Some of these factors pertain to policy interventions such as imposition of a binding decarbonization target either at an economy-wide level or the sectoral level. Resource availability and type of biomass feedstock also varies considerably across regions. From a technological perspective, the readiness of bioenergy conversion pathways is subject to high variability. This influences the costs of deployment. Moreover, the sourcing of feedstock, grid carbon intensity, and co-product handling approaches all affect the life cycle efficacy of bioenergy. The latter, in turn, is particularly important in determining the extent to which bioenergy with CCS or BECCS can effectively deliver CDR (Fajardy and Mac Dowell, 2017).

air emission↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying atmospheric carbon removal at pulp and paper mills: a life cycle assessment across system boundaries

The pulp and paper industry is a promising yet underexplored platform for large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its use of biogenic feedstocks and production of concentrated CO 2 emissions from point sources. This study presents the first comprehensive life cycle assessment (LCA) of retrofitting an amine-based carbon capture and storage (CCS) system into a representative virgin kraft pulp and paper mill in the Southeastern U.S. We evaluate carbon removal across five system configurations, applying both static and dynamic LCA methods under multiple functional units: CO 2 captured, biomass input, and paper output. Results show that CCS retrofits can convert a conventional mill from a net emitter into a net carbon sink, with total removal efficiencies from 17% to 92% (metric tonnes of CO 2 removed per metric tonne of CO 2 available for removal under selected boundary conditions). When carbon removal is normalized to the quantity of biogenic CO 2 captured—a narrow, gate-to-gate system boundary that considers only CCS facility emissions—removal efficiencies reached as high as 92%. The use of such narrow boundaries aligns with precedents in traditional LCA methodology, where gate-to-gate assessments are commonly applied to isolate process-level performance and allocate emissions accordingly, providing a consistent basis for comparison across technologies. Under broader cradle-to-grave boundaries—which begin tracking carbon at the point of its physical removal from the atmosphere via photosynthesis in the forest, and extend to include upstream forest operations, mill-wide emissions, and downstream product decomposition—efficiencies declined, ranging from 17% to 46% under static assumptions and dropping to 12% when accounting for dynamic biogenic carbon fluxes over time. These results underscore how system boundary definitions influence reported outcomes, while also illustrating the complementary roles of narrow and broad perspectives for different decision-making contexts.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs

Limiting the rise in global temperature to 1.5 °C will rely, in part, on technologies to remove CO 2 from the atmosphere. However, many carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are in the early stages of development, and there is limited data to inform predictions of their future adoption. Here, we present an approach to model adoption of early-stage technologies such as CDR and apply it to direct air carbon capture and storage (DACCS). Our approach combines empirical data on historical technology analogs and early adoption indicators to model a range of feasible growth pathways. We use these pathways as inputs to an integrated assessment model (the Global Change Analysis Model, GCAM) and evaluate their effects under an emissions policy to limit end-of-century temperature change to 1.5 °C. Adoption varies widely across analogs, which share different strategic similarities with DACCS. If DACCS growth mirrors high-growth analogs (e.g., solar photovoltaics), it can reach up to 4.9 GtCO 2 removal by midcentury, compared to as low as 0.2 GtCO 2 for low-growth analogs (e.g., natural gas pipelines). For these slower growing analogs, unabated fossil fuel generation in 2050 is reduced by 44% compared to high-growth analogs, with implications for energy investments and stranded assets. Residual emissions at the end of the century are also substantially lower (by up to 43% and 34% in transportation and industry) under lower DACCS scenarios. The large variation in growth rates observed for different analogs can also point to policy takeaways for enabling DACCS.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Reversible Carbon Storage in a Zero-Emissions World

Atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is required to stabilize global temperature. CDR can be achieved via ecosystem-based approaches that are cost-effective but reversible (e.g., soil and forest management) or by more durable but expensive approaches (e.g., direct air capture coupled with geologic storage). Here, we examine trade-offs between these approaches, focusing on timing, climate impacts, and cost. We simulated reversible carbon accrual for a range of CDR contract structures using a general minimalist model of ecosystem carbon cycling, and parameterized it to simulate US agricultural soil management─specifically cover cropping─as a case study. We then quantified the resulting impact on atmospheric carbon and global temperature using a climate model emulator. We find that maintaining a patchwork of reversible CDR projects by replacing lapsed projects with new projects can reduce warming by 22–195 μ°C in 2100 and that the magnitude of this cooling effect depends on how effectively the patchwork is maintained. Long-term maintenance of reversible CDR projects requires institutional stability that cannot be guaranteed over multiple decades. Consequently, effective CDR ultimately requires replacing reversible projects with durable projects. To address this problem, we modeled the cost of replacing reversible agricultural soil CDR with geologic CDR. We found that using reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR is potentially more cost-effective as a global cooling strategy (0.20–0.81 billion USD per μ°C avoided) than perpetual maintenance of reversible CDR (0.32–1.31 billion USD per μ°C avoided) or an immediate transition to durable CDR (1.37–2.19 billion USD per μ°C avoided). However, we emphasize that institutional commitments to maintain reversible CDR projects cannot be guaranteed. Reliance on reversible CDR as a bridge to durable CDR therefore carries an unknown amount of risk and will only function if efforts to maintain reversible CDR are robust.

carbon capture and storage↗
DOE OSTI2024

Abstract for CRADA between Mati Car bon PBC and NETL

The National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) will assist Mati Carbon PBC (participant) in the design and execution of their community benefits plan (CBP) for scaling Enhanced Rock Weathering (ERW) carbon dioxide removal (CDR) in Arkansas. ERW involves spreading finely crushed rocks in agricultural fields to speed up the dissolution and release of certain minerals that amend soil acidity, replenish soil nutrients, and simultaneously converting CO 2 from the atmosphere to Dissolved Inorganic Carbon (DIC). ERW not only removes CO 2 from the atmosphere but also has the potential to generate co-benefits for famers through cost reductions and increased crop yields. The collaboration between NETL and Mati Carbon, PBC (participant) will entail a detailed review of the economic, environmental and community impact of ERW in agricultural settings. This review will guide all project related decisions. It will provide a better understanding of the scale of these potential co-benefits and quantify community needs that ERW can address.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Effects of Iron and Manganese Doping on the Carbonation of Brucite [Mg(OH) 2 ]

Brucite [Mg(OH) 2 ] is a promising sorbent for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) due to its availability and low calcination temperatures. However, natural and synthetic brucites tend to contain metal impurities, such as iron or manganese, and how these impurities affect the interfacial chemical reactivity is uncertain. Here, in this study, the impact of low concentrations of iron and manganese impurities on the carbonation efficiency of Mg(OH) 2 was examined. Mg(OH) 2 with small amounts (1–5 mol %) of Fe and Mn was synthesized. The increasing substitution of Fe into Mg(OH) 2 was accompanied by the oxidation of Fe. The phase transformation sequence during the carbonation was found to be brucite [Mg(OH) 2 ] → amorphous magnesium carbonate (MgCO 3 ·nH 2 O) → nesquehonite (MgCO 3 ·3H 2 O), regardless of impurity concentration. Both the Fe- and Mn-doped Mg(OH) 2 samples were more reactive than endmember Mg(OH) 2 , possibly due to their higher surface areas and lower stabilities. During carbonation, 3 mol % Fe- and Mn-doped Mg(OH) 2 showed the highest reactivity. The variance in reactivity for Mn-doped Mg(OH) 2 was less than that of Fe-doped Mg(OH) 2 . These results suggest that natural or industrial waste Mg(OH) 2 with less than 5 mol % Fe and Mn impurities may be targeted as more effective CDR sorbents than endmember Mg(OH) 2 .

Carbon dioxide removal↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mission Analysis for Marine Renewable Energy to Provide Power for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal

The mission of this project was to provide a preliminary feasibility assessment of powering different marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR), marine carbon capture, and marine carbon sequestration strategies with marine energy. In this report, carbon capture refers to methods that can separate or capture carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the air or ocean; carbon sequestration refers to methods that store CO 2 obtained by capture methods out of the atmosphere for long periods of time; and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) refers to methods that do both. The project found that mCDR powered by marine energy and offshore wind energy available in the United States could meet global CDR scales needed by 2040 and 2050 to limit warming to 1.5 degrees C by 2100. Note that this preliminary estimate assumes that it is possible to harvest all the marine and offshore wind resources available in the United States with existing technology options, and it does not account for the power needed for monitoring these methods, as these power needs are not yet well defined and require further research. Additionally, these CDR scales will still require emissions reductions.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty in determining carbon dioxide removal potential of biochar

A quantitative and systematic assessment of uncertainty in life-cycle assessment is critical to informing sustainable development of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. Biochar is the most commonly sold form of CDR to date and it can be used in applications ranging from concrete to agricultural soil amendments. Previous analyses of biochar rely on modeled or estimated life-cycle data and suggest a cradle-to-gate range of 0.20–1.3 kg CO 2 net removal per kg of biomass feedstock, with the range reported driven by differences in energy consumption, pyrolysis temperature, and feedstock sourcing. Herein, we quantify the distribution of CDR possible for biochar production with a compositional life-cycle inventory model paired with scenario-aware Monte Carlo simulation in a 'best practice' (incorporating lower transportation distances, high pyrolysis temperatures, high energy efficiency, recapture of energy for drying and pyrolysis energy requirements, and co-generation of heat and electricity) and 'poor practice' (higher transportation distances, lower pyrolysis temperatures, low energy efficiency, natural gas for energy requirements, and no energy recovery) scenarios. In the best-practice scenario, cradle-to-gate CDR (which is representative of the upper limit of removal across the entire life cycle) is highly certain, with a median removal of 1.4 kg of CO 2 e/kg biomass and results in net removal across the entire distribution. In contrast, the poor-practice scenario results in median net emissions of 0.090 kg CO 2 e/kg biomass. Whether this scenario emits (66% likelihood) or removes (34% likelihood) carbon dioxide is highly uncertain. The emission intensity of energy inputs to the pyrolysis process and whether the bio-oil co-product is used as a chemical feedstock or combusted are critical factors impacting the net carbon dioxide emissions of biochar production, together responsible for 98% of the difference between the best- and poor-practice scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Land-based resources for engineered carbon dioxide removal in the United States exceed the expected needs

Gigatonne-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR), alongside deep emission cuts, is critical to stabilizing the climate. However, some of the most scalable CDR technologies are also the most land intensive. Here, we examine whether adequate land resources exist in the contiguous United States to meet CDR targets when prioritizing grid emissions reduction, food production, and the protection of sensitive ecosystems. We focus on biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS) and show that suitable lands exceed the expected needs: 37.6 million hectares of land are available for BiCRS, resulting in 0.26 GtCO 2 of CDR/year, and 34 million hectares are suitable for wind- and solar-powered DACS, resulting in 4.8 GtCO 2 of CDR/year if facilities are co-located with geologic CO 2 storage. We identify biomass and energy supply hotspots to meet CDR targets while ensuring land protection and minimizing land competition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data for "Land-based Resources for Engineered Carbon Dioxide Removal in the United States Exceed the Expected Needs"

Gigatonne-scale atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR), alongside deep emission cuts, is critical to stabilizing the climate. However, some of the most scalable CDR technologies are also the most land intensive. Here, we examine whether adequate land resources exist in the contiguous United States to meet CDR targets when prioritizing grid emissions reduction, food production, and the protection of sensitive ecosystems. We focus on biomass carbon removal and storage (BiCRS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS) and show that suitable lands exceed the expected needs: 37.6 million hectares of land are available for BiCRS, resulting in 0.26 GtCO2 of CDR/year, and 34 million hectares are suitable for wind- and solar-powered DACS, resulting in 4.8 GtCO2 of CDR/year if facilities are co-located with geologic CO2 storage. We identify biomass and energy supply hotspots to meet CDR targets while ensuring land protection and minimizing land competition.

carbon↗
DOE OSTI2023

The cost of direct air capture and storage can be reduced via strategic deployment but is unlikely to fall below stated cost targets

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is necessary to minimize the impact of climate change by tackling hard-toabate sectors and historical emissions. Direct air capture and storage (DACS) is an important CDR technology, but it remains unclear when and how DACS can be economically viable. Here, we use a bottom-up engineering-economic model together with top-down technological learning projections to calculate plant-level cost trajectories for four DACS technologies. Our analysis demonstrates that the costs of these technologies can plateau by 2050 at around $\$$100-600 t-CO 2 -1 mainly via capital cost reduction through aggressive deployment, but still exceed the optimistic targets defined by countries such as the US (i.e., $\$$100 t-CO 2 -1 ). A further analysis of existing policy mechanisms indicates that strong, project-catered policy support will be required to create market opportunities, accelerate DACS scale-up and lower the costs further. Our work suggests that strategic DACS deployment and operation must be coupled with strong policies to minimise the cost of DACS and maximise the opportunity to make a planet-scale climate impact.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗