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22 records · Page 2

AERO-MAP: a data compilation and modeling approach to understand spatial variability in fine- and coarse-mode aerosol composition

Abstract. Aerosol particles are an important part of the Earth climate system, and their concentrations are spatially and temporally heterogeneous, as well as being variable in size and composition. Particles can interact with incoming solar radiation and outgoing longwave radiation, change cloud properties, affect photochemistry, impact surface air quality, change the albedo of snow and ice, and modulate carbon dioxide uptake by the land and ocean. High particulate matter concentrations at the surface represent an important public health hazard. There are substantial data sets describing aerosol particles in the literature or in public health databases, but they have not been compiled for easy use by the climate and air quality modeling community. Here, we present a new compilation of PM2.5 and PM10 surface observations, including measurements of aerosol composition, focusing on the spatial variability across different observational stations. Climate modelers are constantly looking for multiple independent lines of evidence to verify their models, and in situ surface concentration measurements, taken at the level of human settlement, present a valuable source of information about aerosols and their human impacts complementarily to the column averages or integrals often retrieved from satellites. We demonstrate a method for comparing the data sets to outputs from global climate models that are the basis for projections of future climate and large-scale aerosol transport patterns that influence local air quality. Annual trends and seasonal cycles are discussed briefly and are included in the compilation. Overall, most of the planet or even the land fraction does not have sufficient observations of surface concentrations – and, especially, particle composition – to characterize and understand the current distribution of particles. Climate models without ammonium nitrate aerosols omit ∼ 10 % of the globally averaged surface concentration of aerosol particles in both PM2.5 and PM10 size fractions, with up to 50 % of the surface concentrations not being included in some regions. In these regions, climate model aerosol forcing projections are likely to be incorrect as they do not include important trends in short-lived climate forcers.

Mahowald, Natalie M. (ORCID:000000022873997X)↗

Applying Gaussian Process Machine Learning and Modern Probabilistic Programming to Satellite Data to Infer CO 2 Emissions

Satellite data provides essential insights into the spatiotemporal distribution of CO 2 concentrations. However, many atmospheric inverse models fail to adequately incorporate the spatial and temporal correlations inherent in satellite observations and often lack rigorous methods for estimating parameters like spatial length scales. We introduce an inference model that processes the spatiotemporal covariance in satellite data and estimates hyperparameters such as covariance length scales. Our approach uses the Gaussian process (GP) machine learning (ML) and modern probabilistic programming languages (PPLs) to perform atmospheric inversions of emissions from satellite data. We develop a GP ML inversion system based on modern PPLs and the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, simulating atmospheric CO 2 concentrations corresponding to the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2/3 (OCO-2/3) data for July 2020. In our supervised learning framework, we treat the GEOS-Chem simulated data set as the target, with predictors derived by scaling the target with sector-specific factors hidden from the GP machine. Our results show that the GP model, combined with GPU-enabled PPLs, effectively retrieves true emission scaling factors and infers noise levels concealed within the data. This suggests that our method could be applied over larger areas with more complex covariance structures, enabling comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns observed in OCO-2/3 and similar satellite data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Transmission Spectroscopy for the Warm Sub-Neptune HD 3167c: Evidence for Molecular Absorption and a Possible High-metallicity Atmosphere

We present a transmission spectrum for the warm (500−600 K) sub-Neptune HD 3167c obtained using the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 infrared spectrograph. We combine these data, which span the 1.125–1.643 μm wavelength range, with broadband transit measurements made using Kepler/K2 (0.6–0.9 μm) and Spitzer/IRAC (4–5 μm). We find evidence for absorption by at least one of H{sub 2}O, HCN, CO{sub 2}, and CH{sub 4} (Bayes factor 7.4; 2.5σ significance), although the data precision does not allow us to unambiguously discriminate between these molecules. The transmission spectrum rules out cloud-free hydrogen-dominated atmospheres with metallicities ≤100× solar at >5.8σ confidence. In contrast, good agreement with the data is obtained for cloud-free models assuming metallicities >700× solar. However, for retrieval analyses that include the effect of clouds, a much broader range of metallicities (including subsolar) is consistent with the data, due to the degeneracy with cloud-top pressure. Self-consistent chemistry models that account for photochemistry and vertical mixing are presented for the atmosphere of HD 3167c. The predictions of these models are broadly consistent with our abundance constraints, although this is primarily due to the large uncertainties on the latter. Interior structure models suggest that the core mass fraction is >40%, independent of a rock or water core composition, and independent of atmospheric envelope metallicity up to 1000× solar. We also report abundance measurements for 15 elements in the host star, showing that it has a very nearly solar composition.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Where Is the Water? Jupiter-like C/H Ratio but Strong H{sub 2}O Depletion Found on τ Boötis b Using SPIRou

The present-day envelope of gaseous planets is a relic of how these giant planets originated and evolved. Measuring their elemental composition therefore presents a powerful opportunity to answer long-standing questions regarding planet formation. Obtaining precise observational constraints on the elemental inventory of giant exoplanets has, however, remained challenging owing to the limited simultaneous wavelength coverage of current space-based instruments. Here, we present thermal emission observations of the nontransiting hot Jupiter τ Boo b using the new wide wavelength coverage (0.95–2.50 μm) and high spectral resolution (R = 70,000) CFHT/SPIRou spectrograph. By combining a total of 20 hr of SPIRou data obtained over five nights in a full atmospheric retrieval framework designed for high-resolution data, we constrain the abundances of all the major oxygen- and carbon-bearing molecules and recover a noninverted temperature structure using a new free-shape, nonparametric temperature–pressure profile retrieval approach. We find a volume mixing ratio of log(CO) = -2.46{sub -0.29}{sup +0.25} and a highly depleted water abundance of less than 0.0072 times the expected value for a solar composition envelope. Combined with upper limits on the abundances of CH{sub 4}, CO{sub 2}, HCN, TiO, and C{sub 2}H{sub 2}, this results in a gas-phase C/H ratio of 5.85{sub -2.82}{sup +4.44} × solar, consistent with the value of Jupiter, and an envelope C/O ratio robustly greater than 0.60, even when taking into account the oxygen that may be sequestered out of the gas phase. Combined, the inferred supersolar C/H, O/H, and C/O ratios on τ Boo b support a formation scenario beyond the water snowline in a disk enriched in CO owing to pebble drift.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗