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NASA NTRS2022

Directed Acyclic Graphs: A Tool for Understanding the NASA Human Spaceflight System Risks - Human System Risk Board

For over a decade, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has tracked and configuration-managed approximately 30 risks to astronaut health and performance that occur before, during and after spaceflight. The Human System Risk Board (HSRB), a Health and Medical Technical Authority (HMTA) Board at NASA Johnson Space Center, is the entity responsible for identifying, assessing, analyzing, and monitoring the official understanding of the risk or risk posture for each of the Human System Risks and determining – based on evaluation of the available evidence – when that risk posture changes. The ultimate purpose of tracking and researching these risks is to find ways to reduce the risk that astronaut crews face during spaceflight. Historically, research, development and operations relevant to one risk have been conducted in isolation from other risks; these individual risk ‘silos’ enabled initial characterization of each specific risk. In spaceflight however, the impact of exposure to risk for astronaut crews is cumulative, and not independent of exposures or other risks, as all the adverse effects of the spaceflight environment begin at launch, continue throughout the duration of the mission and in some cases across the lifetime of the crews. In January of 2020, the HSRB at NASA embarked on a pilot project designed to assess the potential value of causal diagramming as a tool to facilitate understanding of these cumulative and interdependent effects as applied within Human System Risk management. This process uses directed acyclic graphs as a means of formalizing a shared mental model of the causal flow of risk among Risk Board stakeholders. Initially this model was to improve communication among those stakeholders, but the potential value exceeds communication alone. The causal diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to function as a type of knowledge graph for reference for the board and its stakeholders. This document is a sister document to NASA/TM 20220006812 Directed Acyclic Graph Guidance Documentation (1). In that document, the basic guidance for creating and standardizing directed acyclic graphs as tools for cross-risk analysis is provided. This document contains the initial configuration managed DAGs that were created as a result of applying those principles. These initial versions were accepted by the HSRB in January of 2022. Each of the Human System Risks are represented by a DAG that has been reviewed by the larger Human Health and Performance community at NASA including life scientists, physical scientists, physicians, nurses, pharmacists, exercise specialists and more. These results show the starting point for Human System Risk DAGs as shared mental models and communication aids across the boundaries of the various expertise needed to understand and mitigate the human risks in spaceflight. Because they are a starting point, each of these DAGs can be expected to change over time as new or refined evidence becomes available. The process for updating these DAGs can be found in the JSC-66705 Human System Risk Management Plan (2) that is publicly available on the NASA Technical Reports Server.

Erik L. Antonsen↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., > or = 22 days) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes. Whether these sensorimotor changes may be related to structural and functional brain changes is yet unknown. However, experimental studies revealed changes in the gray matter (GM) of the brain after simulated microgravity. Thus, it is possible that spaceflight may affect brain structure and thereby cognitive functioning and motor behavior. Long duration head-down tilt bed rest has been suggested as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both in- and post-flight, we are conducting a prospective longitudinal 70-day bed rest study as an analog to investigate the effects of microgravity on the brain. VBM analysis revealed a progressive decrease from pre- to in- bed rest in GM volume in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate. Over the same time period, there was a progressive increase in GM volume in the cerebellum, occipital-, and parietal cortex, including the precuneus. The majority of these changes did not fully recover during the post-bed rest period. Analysis of lobular GM volumes obtained with BRAINS showed significantly increased volume from pre-bed rest to in-bed rest in GM of the parietal lobe and the third ventricle. Temporal GM volume at 70 days in bed rest was smaller than that at the first pre-bed rest measurement. Trend analysis showed significant positive linear and negative quadratic relationships between parietal GM and time, a positive linear relationship between third ventricle volume and time, and a negative linear relationship between cerebellar GM volume and time. FM performance improved from pre-bed rest session 1 to session 2. From the second pre-bed rest measure to the last-day-in-bed rest, there was a significant decrease in performance that only partially recovered post-bed rest. No significant association was observed between changes in brain volume and changes in functional mobility. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in local volumetric GM increase and decrease and adversely affect functional mobility. These changes in brain structure and performance were not related in this sample. Whether the effects of bed rest dissipate at longer times post-bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research including more subjects and longer follow-up times.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS1971

The generation of Liapunov functions for input-output stable systems

Liapunov functions generation for input-output stability of dynamical systems, using causal operator and state space realization

Willems, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS1975

Current-driven plasma instabilities at high latitudes

Earlier Ogo 5 discussions of high-latitude magnetospheric wave-particle interaction phenomena associated with field aligned current systems are extended by considering some September 7, 1968, out-bound measurements and corresponding March 11, 1969, observations, when the spacecraft was traversing auroral L shells in midafternoon. It is shown that during moderate magnetospheric disturbances the most intense waves and currents were detected near sharp boundaries in the density of polar cleft electrons, and it is possible that local wave-particle interactions produced anomalous resistivity. Some observed changes in the electron distribution functions might be explained in terms of local acceleration, but significant causal questions about the dynamics remain open if one can use only local data from a single spacecraft in this region.

Scarf, F. L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

Koppelmans, Vincent↗

NASA NTRS1985

Management behavior, group climate and performance appraisal at NASA

The relationships among manager behavior, group climate and managerial effectiveness are examined. Survey data were collected from 435 GM14-15 managers and their subordinates at NASA concerning management practices and perceptions of the group environment. Performance ratings of managers were obtained from their superiors. The results strongly supported a causal model in which subordinates' climate perceptions mediate the effects of manager behavior on performance. That is, the development of group climate provides the process through which the effects of manager practices may be understood. Analyses also revealed that the function performed by a manager and his group (e.g., research) influenced the specific nature of the causal dynamics. Some implications of the results for management training and development are discussed.

Manderlink, G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning for the Validation of Expert-Elicited Causal Risk Diagrams

Exposure to spaceflight poses risk to human health in complex ways. To help manage this risk, the Human Systems Risk Board (HSRB) at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) maintains a set of causal diagrams that attempt to explain how spaceflight hazards generate health risks and lead to adverse outcomes both in-mission, immediately post-mission, and over the long term. These causal risk diagrams are formulated as directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and can function as knowledge graphs of connected risks and outcomes. These DAGs have proven useful for communication, and, through network analysis, have allowed for the identification of structurally important factors in the risk network. However, the utility these DAGs provide is directly proportional to their verisimilitude, making assessment of this trait using empirical data – whether from actual human spaceflight or various spaceflight analogue exposures and model organisms – a high priority. In this research we explore the use of machine learning algorithms to learn DAG structure from empirical data as a means of evaluating human-elicited DAG structures. To do so, we test several different graph structure-learning algorithms on data concerning changes in the bones of rats and mice after exposure to either spaceflight or a spaceflight analogue. We explore potential methods for indexing the similarity between each algorithm’s output DAG with all the others and with that of the expert-elicited DAG. We discuss next steps in this ongoing line of research and open science initiatives underway to complete them.

directed acyclic graphs↗

NASA NTRS1995

Radio properties of optically selected quasars

Approximately one-quarter (256 objects) of the Large Bright Quasar Survey (LBQS) has been observed with the VLA at 8.4 GHz, resulting in 44 detections (17%) with a median 3 sigma noise limit of 0.29 mJy. Quasars with radio luminosity detectable at this limit are underrepresented at faint absolute blue magnitudes (M(sub B) greater than or equal to -24), an effect which cannot be explained by a potential LBQS selection bias against quasars which have large radio luminosities and small optical luminosities. The radio-loud (8 GHz luminosity greater than 10(exp 25) W/Hz) fraction is observed to change as a function of redshift and M(sub B), for M(sub B) less than -24, although the causal variable is ambiguous. The description most consistent with the available data is that radio-loud fraction is approximately constant over the range -27.5 less than or equal to M(sub B) less than or equal to -24 and increases at brighter absolute magnitudes. The radio-loud fraction as a function of redshift reaches a local maximum at z approximately equal to 1, and, aside from the effects of icreased radio-loud fraction at bright M(sub B), remains roughly constant to redshifts approaching 5. The log R(sub 8.4) distribution (radio-to-optical luminosity ratio) of the current LBQS sample may be bimodal, but the results of statistical tests are ambiguous, requiring a larger sample size to become definite.

Hooper, Eric J.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Analysis and retracking of continental ice sheet radar altimeter waveforms

The Seasat-1 radar altimeter data set acquired over both the Antarctic and Greenland continental ice sheets is analyzed to obtain corrected ranges to the ice surface. The radar altimeter functional response over the continental ice sheets is considerably more complex than over the oceans. Causal factors identified in this complicated response include sloping surfaces, undulating ice surfaces with characteristic wavelengths on the same spatial scale as the altimeter beam-limited footprint, off-track reflections, and dynamic lag of the altimeter tracking circuit. Retracking methods using the altimeter return pulse waveforms give range corrections that are typically several meters. The entire set of Seasat-1 altimetry over the continental ice sheets is being retracked by fitting a multi-parameter function to each waveform. Many waveforms have double ramps indicating near-normal reflections from two distinct portions of the ice surface within the altimeter beam. Two independent range measurements differing by less than 25 m are obtained from retracking the double-ramp waveforms.

Martin, T. V.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Going through a quantum phase

Phase measurements on a single-mode radiation field are examined from a system-theoretic viewpoint. Quantum estimation theory is used to establish the primacy of the Susskind-Glogower (SG) phase operator; its phase eigenkets generate the probability operator measure (POM) for maximum likelihood phase estimation. A commuting observables description for the SG-POM on a signal x apparatus state space is derived. It is analogous to the signal-band x image-band formulation for optical heterodyne detection. Because heterodyning realizes the annihilation operator POM, this analogy may help realize the SG-POM. The wave function representation associated with the SG POM is then used to prove the duality between the phase measurement and the number operator measurement, from which a number-phase uncertainty principle is obtained, via Fourier theory, without recourse to linearization. Fourier theory is also employed to establish the principle of number-ket causality, leading to a Paley-Wiener condition that must be satisfied by the phase-measurement probability density function (PDF) for a single-mode field in an arbitrary quantum state. Finally, a two-mode phase measurement is shown to afford phase-conjugate quantum communication at zero error probability with finite average photon number. Application of this construct to interferometric precision measurements is briefly discussed.

Shapiro, Jeffrey H.↗

NASA NTRS1977

An overview of aviation weather services

Safety of flight is the first concern of the aviation weather service, the economics of air transportation is a second major interest. Weather is a significant causal factor impacting on the efficiency of air transportation. A discussion is presented on the functions of various weather service agencies as they relate to one another in the dissemination of information to the pilot and to the air traffic controller. Improvements in the aviation weather service and weather knowledge are cited as future goals. The weather service at the present time is an efficient system but future aviation objectives dictate more improvements are needed (especially in automation technology) to enhance flight planning and for safe and efficient flight execution.

Connolly, J. W.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach for Defining IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.

In-Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

NASA NTRS2004

The Role of Instability Waves in Predicting Jet Noise

There has been an ongoing debate about the role of linear instability waves in the prediction of jet noise. Parallel mean flow models, such as the one proposed by Lilley, usually neglect these waves because they cause the solution to become infinite. The resulting solution is then non-causal and can, therefore, be quite different from the true causal solution for the chaotic flows being considered here. The present paper solves the relevant acoustic equations for a non-parallel mean flow by using a vector Green s function approach and assuming the mean flow to be weakly non-parallel, i.e., assuming the spread rate to be small. It demonstrates that linear instability waves must be accounted for in order to construct a proper causal solution to the jet noise problem. . Recent experimental results (e.g., see Tam, Golebiowski, and Seiner,1996) show that the small angle spectra radiated by supersonic jets are quite different from those radiated at larger angles (say, at 90deg) and even exhibit dissimilar frequency scalings (i.e., they scale with Helmholtz number as opposed to Strouhal number). The present solution is (among other things )able to explain this rather puzzling experimental result.

Goldstein, M. E.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Log-Based Recovery in Asynchronous Distributed Systems

A log-based mechanism is described for restoring consistent states to replicated data objects after failures. Preserving a causal form of consistency based on the notion of virtual time is focused upon in this report. Causal consistency has been shown to apply to a variety of applications, including distributed simulation, task decomposition, and mail delivery systems. Several mechanisms have been proposed for implementing causally consistent recovery, most notably those of Strom and Yemini, and Johnson and Zwaenepoel. The mechanism proposed here differs from these in two major respects. First, a roll-forward style of recovery is implemented. A functioning process is never required to roll-back its state in order to achieve consistency with a recovering process. Second, the mechanism does not require any explicit information about the causal dependencies between updates. Instead, all necessary dependency information is inferred from the orders in which updates are logged by the object servers. This basic recovery technique appears to be applicable to forms of consistency other than causal consistency. In particular, it is shown how the recovery technique can be modified to support an atomic form of consistency (grouping consistency). By combining grouping consistency with casual consistency, it may even be possible to implement serializable consistency within this mechanism.

Kane, Kenneth Paul↗

NASA NTRS2014

Focal Gray Matter Plasticity as a Function of Long Duration Head Down Tilted Bed Rest: Preliminary Results

Long duration spaceflight (i.e., 22 days or longer) has been associated with changes in sensorimotor systems, resulting in difficulties that astronauts experience with posture control, locomotion, and manual control. The microgravity environment is an important causal factor for spaceflight induced sensorimotor changes. Whether these sensorimotor changes are solely related to peripheral changes from reduced vestibular stimulation, body unloading, body fluid shifts or that they may be related to structural and functional brain changes is yet unknown. However, a recent study reported associations between microgravity and flattening of the posterior eye globe and protrusion of the optic nerve [1] possibly as the result of increased intracranial pressure due to microgravity induced bodily fluid shifts [3]. Moreover, elevated intracranial pressure has been related to white matter microstructural damage [2]. Thus, it is possible that spaceflight may affect brain structure and thereby cognitive functioning. Long duration head down tilt bed rest has been suggested as an exclusionary analog to study microgravity effects on the sensorimotor system [4]. Bed rest mimics microgravity in body unloading and bodily fluid shifts. In consideration of the health and performance of crewmembers both in- and post-flight, we are conducting a prospective longitudinal 70-day bed rest study as an analog to investigate the effects of microgravity on brain structure [5]. Here we present results of the first six subjects. Six subjects were assessed at 12 and 7 days before-, at 7, 30, and ~70 days in-, and at 8 and 12 days post 70 days of bed rest at the NASA bed rest facility in UTMB, Galveston, TX, USA. At each time point structural MRI scans (i.e., high resolution T1-weighted imaging and Diffusion Tensor Imaging (DTI)) were obtained using a 3T Siemens scanner. Focal changes over time in gray matter density were assessed using the voxel based morphometry 8 (VBM8) toolbox under SPM. Longitudinal processing in VBM8 includes linear registration of each scan to the mean of the subject and subsequently transforming all scans in to MNI space by applying the warp from the mean subject to MNI to the individual gray matter segmentations. Modulation was applied so that all images represented the volume of the original structure in native space. Voxel wise analysis was carried out on the gray matter images after smoothing, using a flexible factorial design with family wise error correction. Focal changes in white matter microstructural integrity were assessed using tract based spatial statistics (TBSS) as part of FMRIB software library (FSL). TBSS registers all DTI scans to standard space. It subsequently creates a study specific white matter skeleton of the major white matter tracts. For each subject, for each DTI metric (i.e. fractional anisotropy (FA), mean diffusivity (MD), axial diffusivity (AD), and radial diffusivity (RD)), the maximum value in a line perpendicular to the skeleton tract is projected to the skeleton. Non-parametric permutation based t-tests and ANOVA's were used for voxel-wise comparison of the skeletons. For both VBM and TBSS, comparison of pre bed rest measurements did not show significant differences. VBM analysis revealed decreased gray matter density in bilateral areas including the frontal medial cortex, the insular cortex and the caudate (see Figure) from 'pre to in bed rest'. Over the same time period, there was an increase in gray matter density in the cerebellum, occipital-, and parietal cortex, including the precuneus (see Figure). The majority of these changes did not recover from 'during to post bed rest'. TBSS analysis did not reveal significant changes in white matter microstructural integrity after correction for multiple comparisons. Uncorrected analyses (p<.015) revealed an increase in RD in the cerebellum and brainstem from pre bed rest to the first week in bed rest that did not recover post bed rest. Extended bed rest, which is an analog for microgravity, can result in gray matter changes and potentially in microstructural white matter changes in areas that are important for neuro motor behavior and cognition. These changes did not recover at two weeks post bed rest. Whether the effects of bed rest wear off at longer times post bed rest, and if they are associated with behavior are important questions that warrant further research.

Koppelmans, V.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Information Systems Technology for NASA Earth Systems Digital Twins (ESDT)

The term “Digital Twin” was first used in 2002 for product lifecycle management. Since then, Digital Twin concepts have been proposed in various domains until very recently for Earth Science. For NASA’s Advanced Information Systems Technology (AIST) Program, an Earth System Digital Twin (ESDT) is defined as composed of three components: 1. A Digital Replica, i.e., an integrated picture of the past and current states of Earth systems 2. Forecasting capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems will evolve in the future from the current state 3. Impact Assessment capabilities, providing an integrated picture of how Earth systems could evolve under different hypothetical what-if scenarios. Developing such a vision will require technologies related to: integrating continuous observations from various disparate sources; developing frameworks that builds on inter-connected models; improving the speed and accuracy of integrated prediction, analysis and visualization capabilities (e.g., by using machine learning); and utilizing causality and uncertainty quantification to improve our understanding of the evolution of Earth Science systems as a function of their interactions with other Earth and human systems. In addition, AIST is also investigating interoperability standards to federate multiple Digital Twins, as well as computational resources required by those systems.

Earth Science Remote Sensing; Information Systems↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach for Identifying IASMS Services, Functions, and Capabilities From Data Sources

Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants that are part of Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using semi-autonomous/autonomous vehicles. Overcoming these AAM safety assurance challenges is the focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS). The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs)designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system design to mitigate risk. This paper describes a broad approach for identifying SFCs involving technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach leverages these sources to identify potential SFCs that enable the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M)functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS.

Kyle Ellis↗

NASA NTRS1981

Alternative formulations of magnetospheric plasma electrodynamics

The fundamental equations of magnetospheric plasma electrodynamics are considered from a theoretical standpoint that stresses the basic equivalence of various seemingly different formal representations. The mathematical properties of vector fields are reviewed, and their implications in electrodynamics are studied. The irrotational and solenoidal parts of the electric field are associated with two physically distinct types of sources. Relativistic covariance and gauge invariance in electromagnetic theory are reviewed and discussed in the context of an approach in which the mathematical properties of vector fields are taken as primary concepts. Special attention is given to the use and interpretation of the Coulomb gauge potential functions. This choice of gauge is sometimes regarded with undue suspicion, possibly because of a certain paradox concerning causality. The paradox is discussed and resolved. Useful properties of the Coulomb gauge are identified. These need not be limited to the case of slow time variations and can extend beyond the limits of validity of ideal MHD theory.

Cragin, B. L.↗