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Results for “causal reasoning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1990

A diagnosis system using object-oriented fault tree models

Spaceborne computing systems must provide reliable, continuous operation for extended periods. Due to weight, power, and volume constraints, these systems must manage resources very effectively. A fault diagnosis algorithm is described which enables fast and flexible diagnoses in the dynamic distributed computing environments planned for future space missions. The algorithm uses a knowledge base that is easily changed and updated to reflect current system status. Augmented fault trees represented in an object-oriented form provide deep system knowledge that is easy to access and revise as a system changes. Given such a fault tree, a set of failure events that have occurred, and a set of failure events that have not occurred, this diagnosis system uses forward and backward chaining to propagate causal and temporal information about other failure events in the system being diagnosed. Once the system has established temporal and causal constraints, it reasons backward from heuristically selected failure events to find a set of basic failure events which are a likely cause of the occurrence of the top failure event in the fault tree. The diagnosis system has been implemented in common LISP using Flavors.

Iverson, David L.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Automatic determination of fault effects on aircraft functionality

The problem of determining the behavior of physical systems subsequent to the occurrence of malfunctions is discussed. It is established that while it was reasonable to assume that the most important fault behavior modes of primitive components and simple subsystems could be known and predicted, interactions within composite systems reached levels of complexity that precluded the use of traditional rule-based expert system techniques. Reasoning from first principles, i.e., on the basis of causal models of the physical system, was required. The first question that arises is, of course, how the causal information required for such reasoning should be represented. The bond graphs presented here occupy a position intermediate between qualitative and quantitative models, allowing the automatic derivation of Kuipers-like qualitative constraint models as well as state equations. Their most salient feature, however, is that entities corresponding to components and interactions in the physical system are explicitly represented in the bond graph model, thus permitting systematic model updates to reflect malfunctions. Researchers show how this is done, as well as presenting a number of techniques for obtaining qualitative information from the state equations derivable from bond graph models. One insight is the fact that one of the most important advantages of the bond graph ontology is the highly systematic approach to model construction it imposes on the modeler, who is forced to classify the relevant physical entities into a small number of categories, and to look for two highly specific types of interactions among them. The systematic nature of bond graph model construction facilitates the process to the point where the guidelines are sufficiently specific to be followed by modelers who are not domain experts. As a result, models of a given system constructed by different modelers will have extensive similarities. Researchers conclude by pointing out that the ease of updating bond graph models to reflect malfunctions is a manifestation of the systematic nature of bond graph construction, and the regularity of the relationship between bond graph models and physical reality.

Feyock, Stefan↗
DOE OSTI2022

Causality guided machine learning model on wetland CH 4 emissions across global wetlands

Wetland CH 4 emissions are among the most uncertain components of the global CH 4 budget. The complex nature of wetland CH 4 processes makes it challenging to identify causal relationships for improving our understanding and predictability of CH 4 emissions. In this study, we used the flux measurements of CH 4 from eddy covariance towers (30 sites from 4 wetlands types: bog, fen, marsh, and wet tundra) to construct a causality-constrained machine learning (ML) framework to explain the regulative factors and to capture CH 4 emissions at sub-seasonal scale. We found that soil temperature is the dominant factor for CH 4 emissions in all studied wetland types. Ecosystem respiration (CO 2 ) and gross primary productivity exert controls at bog, fen, and marsh sites with lagged responses of days to weeks. Integrating these asynchronous environmental and biological causal relationships in predictive models significantly improved model performance. More importantly, modeled CH 4 emissions differed by up to a factor of 4 under a +1°C warming scenario when causality constraints were considered. These results highlight the significant role of causality in modeling wetland CH 4 emissions especially under future warming conditions, while traditional data-driven ML models may reproduce observations for the wrong reasons. Our proposed causality-guided model could benefit predictive modeling, large-scale upscaling, data gap-filling, and surrogate modeling of wetland CH 4 emissions within earth system land models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1988

A knowledge-based approach to identification and adaptation in dynamical systems control

Artificial intelligence techniques are applied to the problems of model form and parameter identification of large-scale dynamic systems. The object-oriented knowledge representation is discussed in the context of causal modeling and qualitative reasoning. Structured sets of rules are used for implementing qualitative component simulations, for catching qualitative discrepancies and quantitative bound violations, and for making reconfiguration and control decisions that affect the physical system. These decisions are executed by backward-chaining through a knowledge base of control action tasks. This approach was implemented for two examples: a triple quadrupole mass spectrometer and a two-phase thermal testbed. Results of tests with both of these systems demonstrate that the software replicates some or most of the functionality of a human operator, thereby reducing the need for a human-in-the-loop in the lower levels of control of these complex systems.

Glass, B. J.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Determining the Loci of Anomalies Using Minimal Causal Models

A new technique is described for attention focusing for use in anomaly detection in complex physical systems. The technique involves reasoning about the distance between two frequency distributions, and it is used to detect both anomalous system parameters and 'broken' causal dependencies. These two forms of information together isolate the locus of anomalous behavior in the system being monitored.

qualitative reasoning naive physics causal reasoni↗
NASA NTRS1988

Faultfinder: A diagnostic expert system with graceful degradation for onboard aircraft applications

A research effort was conducted to explore the application of artificial intelligence technology to automation of fault monitoring and diagnosis as an aid to the flight crew. Human diagnostic reasoning was analyzed and actual accident and incident cases were reconstructed. Based on this analysis and reconstruction, diagnostic concepts were conceived and implemented for an aircraft's engine and hydraulic subsystems. These concepts are embedded within a multistage approach to diagnosis that reasons about time-based, causal, and qualitative information, and enables a certain amount of graceful degradation. The diagnostic concepts are implemented in a computer program called Faultfinder that serves as a research prototype.

Abbott, Kathy H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Building intelligent systems - Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a 'truly' autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, Peter↗
NASA NTRS1987

An evaluation of a real-time fault diagnosis expert system for aircraft applications

A fault monitoring and diagnosis expert system called Faultfinder was conceived and developed to detect and diagnose in-flight failures in an aircraft. Faultfinder is an automated intelligent aid whose purpose is to assist the flight crew in fault monitoring, fault diagnosis, and recovery planning. The present implementation of this concept performs monitoring and diagnosis for a generic aircraft's propulsion and hydraulic subsystems. This implementation is capable of detecting and diagnosing failures of known and unknown (i.e., unforseeable) type in a real-time environment. Faultfinder uses both rule-based and model-based reasoning strategies which operate on causal, temporal, and qualitative information. A preliminary evaluation is made of the diagnostic concepts implemented in Faultfinder. The evaluation used actual aircraft accident and incident cases which were simulated to assess the effectiveness of Faultfinder in detecting and diagnosing failures. Results of this evaluation, together with the description of the current Faultfinder implementation, are presented.

Schutte, Paul C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Building intelligent systems: Artificial intelligence research at NASA Ames Research Center

The basic components that make up the goal of building autonomous intelligent systems are discussed, and ongoing work at the NASA Ames Research Center is described. It is noted that a clear progression of systems can be seen through research settings (both within and external to NASA) to Space Station testbeds to systems which actually fly on the Space Station. The starting point for the discussion is a truly autonomous Space Station intelligent system, responsible for a major portion of Space Station control. Attention is given to research in fiscal 1987, including reasoning under uncertainty, machine learning, causal modeling and simulation, knowledge from design through operations, advanced planning work, validation methodologies, and hierarchical control of and distributed cooperation among multiple knowledge-based systems.

Friedland, P.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Final Fugitive Dust Control NOV Causal Report

On June 30, 2020, a Notice of Violation (NOV) was issued by the City of Albuquerque (COA) Environmental Health Department, Air Quality Program. The NOV identified two violations of New Mexico Administrative Code (NMAC) 20.11.20, Fugitive Dust Control, stemming from an August 30, 2019 inspection of the construction site at Sandia/New Mexico (SNL/NM) Building 812. After the August 30 inspection, a Post-Instruction Notification (PIN) was issued to the SNL Construction Facilities Manager. The PIN was acknowledged by Department 4722 and sent to the COA on September 13, 2020 via email. The PIN "Comply by" date was September 13, 2019 was transmitted by National Nuclear Security Administration/ Sandia Field Office (NNSA/SFO) to COA offices on November 12, 2019. The PIN response was 48 business days past due for various reasons which were explored during the causal analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Comparing the Identification of Recommendations by Different Accident Investigators Using a Common Methodology

Accident reports play a key role in the safety of complex systems. These reports present the recommendations that are intended to help avoid any recurrence of past failures. However, the value of these findings depends upon the causal analysis that helps to identify the reasons why an accident occurred. Various techniques have been developed to help investigators distinguish root causes from contributory factors and contextual information. This paper presents the results from a study into the individual differences that can arise when a group of investigators independently apply the same technique to identify the causes of an accident. This work is important if we are to increase the consistency and coherence of investigations following major accidents.

Johnson, Chris W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Causal modeling and event-driven simulation for monitoring of continuous systems

We describe extensions to the traditional techniques for anomaly detection, as well as new anomaly detection techniques based on alternate models of what distinguishes normal from abnormal behavior. Some of these techniques are designed to capture anomalies at individual sensors; some detect anomalies across collections of sensors. To assist in reasoning about complex global behaviors, we construct and simulate a causal model of the physical system being monitored. These techniques have been tested on data from the ECLSS of Space Station Freedom (SSF) and are being applied in advanced monitoring prototypes for the SSF External Active Thermal Control System of SSF and the Environmental Emergency and Consumables Management subsystem of the Space Shuttle.

Doyle, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evidence for Doppler-Shifted Iron Emission Lines in Black Hole Candidate 4U 1630-47

We report the first detection of a pair of correlated the X-ray spectrum of black hole candidate 4U 1630-47 outburst, based on Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) emission lines in during its 1996 observations of the source. At the peak plateau of the outburst, the emission lines are detected, centered mostly at approx. 5.7 and approx. 7.7 keV, respectively, while the line energies exhibit random variability approx. 5%. Interestingly, the lines move in a concerted manner to keep their separation roughly constant. The lines also vary greatly in strength, but with the lower energy line always much stronger than the higher energy one. The measured equivalent width ranges from approx. 50 to approx. 270 eV for the former, and from insignificant detection to approx. 140 eV for the latter; the two are reasonably correlated. The correlation between the lines implies a causal connection; perhaps they share a common origin. Both lines may arise from a single K & alpha; line of highly ionized iron that is Doppler shifted either in a Keplerian accretion disk or in a bipolar outflow or even both. In both scenarios, a change in the line energy might simply reflect a change in the ionization state of line-emitting matter. We discuss the implication of the results and also raise some questions about such interpretations.

Cui, Wei↗
NASA NTRS1978

Supernovae and the formation of the solar system

The evidence that a supernova explosion may have triggered the formation of the solar system is reviewed. It cannot be said on the basis of the investigation that the supernova trigger is absolutely necessary for planetary system formation. However, it does appear according to the isotopic evidence that a supernova did blow up within a few million years of the solidification of objects in the solar system. If such an event occurred, it is reasonable to assume that the resultant supernova shock had a causal connection with the formation of the solar system and that a supernova may be one stimulus for formation of low-mass stars.

Schramm, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS1994

MESA: An Interactive Modeling and Simulation Environment for Intelligent Systems Automation

This report describes MESA, a software environment for creating applications that automate NASA mission opterations. MESA enables intelligent automation by utilizing model-based reasoning techniques developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence. Model-based reasoning techniques are realized in Mesa through native support of causal modeling and discrete event simulation.

Intelligent Systems↗
NASA NTRS2002

Information Theoretic Approaches to Rapid Discovery of Relationships in Large Climate Data Sets

Mutual information as the asymptotic Bayesian measure of independence is an excellent starting point for investigating the existence of possible relationships among climate-relevant variables in large data sets, As mutual information is a nonlinear function of of its arguments, it is not beholden to the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables in question and can reveal features missed in linear correlation analyses. However, as mutual information is symmetric in its arguments, it only has the ability to reveal the probability that two variables are related. it provides no information as to how they are related; specifically, causal interactions or a relation based on a common cause cannot be detected. For this reason we also investigate the utility of a related quantity called the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy can be written as a difference between mutual informations and has the capability to reveal whether and how the variables are causally related. The application of these information theoretic measures is rested on some familiar examples using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify relation between global cloud cover and other variables, including equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (SST), over seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Intelligent Resource Management for Local Area Networks: Approach and Evolution

The Data Management System network is a complex and important part of manned space platforms. Its efficient operation is vital to crew, subsystems and experiments. AI is being considered to aid in the initial design of the network and to augment the management of its operation. The Intelligent Resource Management for Local Area Networks (IRMA-LAN) project is concerned with the application of AI techniques to network configuration and management. A network simulation was constructed employing real time process scheduling for realistic loads, and utilizing the IEEE 802.4 token passing scheme. This simulation is an integral part of the construction of the IRMA-LAN system. From it, a causal model is being constructed for use in prediction and deep reasoning about the system configuration. An AI network design advisor is being added to help in the design of an efficient network. The AI portion of the system is planned to evolve into a dynamic network management aid. The approach, the integrated simulation, project evolution, and some initial results are described.

Meike, Roger↗
NASA NTRS1994

Attention focusing and anomaly detection in systems monitoring

Any attempt to introduce automation into the monitoring of complex physical systems must start from a robust anomaly detection capability. This task is far from straightforward, for a single definition of what constitutes an anomaly is difficult to come by. In addition, to make the monitoring process efficient, and to avoid the potential for information overload on human operators, attention focusing must also be addressed. When an anomaly occurs, more often than not several sensors are affected, and the partially redundant information they provide can be confusing, particularly in a crisis situation where a response is needed quickly. The focus of this paper is a new technique for attention focusing. The technique involves reasoning about the distance between two frequency distributions, and is used to detect both anomalous system parameters and 'broken' causal dependencies. These two forms of information together isolate the locus of anomalous behavior in the system being monitored.

Doyle, Richard J.↗