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Results for “causal reasoning”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Causal modeling and event-driven simulation for monitoring of continuous systems

We describe extensions to the traditional techniques for anomaly detection, as well as new anomaly detection techniques based on alternate models of what distinguishes normal from abnormal behavior. Some of these techniques are designed to capture anomalies at individual sensors; some detect anomalies across collections of sensors. To assist in reasoning about complex global behaviors, we construct and simulate a causal model of the physical system being monitored. These techniques have been tested on data from the ECLSS of Space Station Freedom (SSF) and are being applied in advanced monitoring prototypes for the SSF External Active Thermal Control System of SSF and the Environmental Emergency and Consumables Management subsystem of the Space Shuttle.

Doyle, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2000

Evidence for Doppler-Shifted Iron Emission Lines in Black Hole Candidate 4U 1630-47

We report the first detection of a pair of correlated the X-ray spectrum of black hole candidate 4U 1630-47 outburst, based on Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) emission lines in during its 1996 observations of the source. At the peak plateau of the outburst, the emission lines are detected, centered mostly at approx. 5.7 and approx. 7.7 keV, respectively, while the line energies exhibit random variability approx. 5%. Interestingly, the lines move in a concerted manner to keep their separation roughly constant. The lines also vary greatly in strength, but with the lower energy line always much stronger than the higher energy one. The measured equivalent width ranges from approx. 50 to approx. 270 eV for the former, and from insignificant detection to approx. 140 eV for the latter; the two are reasonably correlated. The correlation between the lines implies a causal connection; perhaps they share a common origin. Both lines may arise from a single K & alpha; line of highly ionized iron that is Doppler shifted either in a Keplerian accretion disk or in a bipolar outflow or even both. In both scenarios, a change in the line energy might simply reflect a change in the ionization state of line-emitting matter. We discuss the implication of the results and also raise some questions about such interpretations.

Cui, Wei↗
NASA NTRS1978

Supernovae and the formation of the solar system

The evidence that a supernova explosion may have triggered the formation of the solar system is reviewed. It cannot be said on the basis of the investigation that the supernova trigger is absolutely necessary for planetary system formation. However, it does appear according to the isotopic evidence that a supernova did blow up within a few million years of the solidification of objects in the solar system. If such an event occurred, it is reasonable to assume that the resultant supernova shock had a causal connection with the formation of the solar system and that a supernova may be one stimulus for formation of low-mass stars.

Schramm, D. N.↗
NASA NTRS1994

MESA: An Interactive Modeling and Simulation Environment for Intelligent Systems Automation

This report describes MESA, a software environment for creating applications that automate NASA mission opterations. MESA enables intelligent automation by utilizing model-based reasoning techniques developed in the field of Artificial Intelligence. Model-based reasoning techniques are realized in Mesa through native support of causal modeling and discrete event simulation.

Intelligent Systems↗
NASA NTRS2002

Information Theoretic Approaches to Rapid Discovery of Relationships in Large Climate Data Sets

Mutual information as the asymptotic Bayesian measure of independence is an excellent starting point for investigating the existence of possible relationships among climate-relevant variables in large data sets, As mutual information is a nonlinear function of of its arguments, it is not beholden to the assumption of a linear relationship between the variables in question and can reveal features missed in linear correlation analyses. However, as mutual information is symmetric in its arguments, it only has the ability to reveal the probability that two variables are related. it provides no information as to how they are related; specifically, causal interactions or a relation based on a common cause cannot be detected. For this reason we also investigate the utility of a related quantity called the transfer entropy. The transfer entropy can be written as a difference between mutual informations and has the capability to reveal whether and how the variables are causally related. The application of these information theoretic measures is rested on some familiar examples using data from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) to identify relation between global cloud cover and other variables, including equatorial pacific sea surface temperature (SST), over seasonal and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycles.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Intelligent Resource Management for Local Area Networks: Approach and Evolution

The Data Management System network is a complex and important part of manned space platforms. Its efficient operation is vital to crew, subsystems and experiments. AI is being considered to aid in the initial design of the network and to augment the management of its operation. The Intelligent Resource Management for Local Area Networks (IRMA-LAN) project is concerned with the application of AI techniques to network configuration and management. A network simulation was constructed employing real time process scheduling for realistic loads, and utilizing the IEEE 802.4 token passing scheme. This simulation is an integral part of the construction of the IRMA-LAN system. From it, a causal model is being constructed for use in prediction and deep reasoning about the system configuration. An AI network design advisor is being added to help in the design of an efficient network. The AI portion of the system is planned to evolve into a dynamic network management aid. The approach, the integrated simulation, project evolution, and some initial results are described.

Meike, Roger↗
NASA NTRS1994

Attention focusing and anomaly detection in systems monitoring

Any attempt to introduce automation into the monitoring of complex physical systems must start from a robust anomaly detection capability. This task is far from straightforward, for a single definition of what constitutes an anomaly is difficult to come by. In addition, to make the monitoring process efficient, and to avoid the potential for information overload on human operators, attention focusing must also be addressed. When an anomaly occurs, more often than not several sensors are affected, and the partially redundant information they provide can be confusing, particularly in a crisis situation where a response is needed quickly. The focus of this paper is a new technique for attention focusing. The technique involves reasoning about the distance between two frequency distributions, and is used to detect both anomalous system parameters and 'broken' causal dependencies. These two forms of information together isolate the locus of anomalous behavior in the system being monitored.

Doyle, Richard J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

A Bayesian Framework for Landing Site Selection During Autonomous Spacecraft Descent

The success of a landed space exploration mission depends largely on the final landing site. Factors influencing site selection include safety, fuel-consumption, and scientific return. This paper addresses the problem of selecting the best available landing site based on these factors in real-time during autonomous spacecraft descent onto a planetary surface. The problem is modeled probabilistically using Bayesian Networks (BNs). BNs provide a means of representing the causal relationships between variables that impact the quality of a landing site. The final landing site is determined via probabilistic reasoning based on terrain safety derived from on-board sensors, available fuel based on spacecraft descent dynamics, and regions of interest defined by mission scientists.

entry, descent, landing (EDL)↗
NASA NTRS2002

Properties of the Residual Stress of the Temporally Filtered Navier-Stokes Equations

The development of a unifying framework among direct numerical simulations, large-eddy simulations, and statistically averaged formulations of the Navier-Stokes equations, is of current interest. Toward that goal, the properties of the residual (subgrid-scale) stress of the temporally filtered Navier-Stokes equations are carefully examined. Causal time-domain filters, parameterized by a temporal filter width 0 less than Delta less than infinity, are considered. For several reasons, the differential forms of such filters are preferred to their corresponding integral forms; among these, storage requirements for differential forms are typically much less than for integral forms and, for some filters, are independent of Delta. The behavior of the residual stress in the limits of both vanishing and in infinite filter widths is examined. It is shown analytically that, in the limit Delta to 0, the residual stress vanishes, in which case the Navier-Stokes equations are recovered from the temporally filtered equations. Alternately, in the limit Delta to infinity, the residual stress is equivalent to the long-time averaged stress, and the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are recovered from the temporally filtered equations. The predicted behavior at the asymptotic limits of filter width is further validated by numerical simulations of the temporally filtered forced, viscous Burger's equation. Finally, finite filter widths are also considered, and a priori analyses of temporal similarity and temporal approximate deconvolution models of the residual stress are conducted.

Pruett, C. D.↗
NASA NTRS1992

An architecture for the development of real-time fault diagnosis systems using model-based reasoning

Presented here is an architecture for implementing real-time telemetry based diagnostic systems using model-based reasoning. First, we describe Paragon, a knowledge acquisition tool for offline entry and validation of physical system models. Paragon provides domain experts with a structured editing capability to capture the physical component's structure, behavior, and causal relationships. We next describe the architecture of the run time diagnostic system. The diagnostic system, written entirely in Ada, uses the behavioral model developed offline by Paragon to simulate expected component states as reflected in the telemetry stream. The diagnostic algorithm traces causal relationships contained within the model to isolate system faults. Since the diagnostic process relies exclusively on the behavioral model and is implemented without the use of heuristic rules, it can be used to isolate unpredicted faults in a wide variety of systems. Finally, we discuss the implementation of a prototype system constructed using this technique for diagnosing faults in a science instrument. The prototype demonstrates the use of model-based reasoning to develop maintainable systems with greater diagnostic capabilities at a lower cost.

Hall, Gardiner A.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Space Shuttle RTOS Bayesian Network

With shrinking budgets and the requirements to increase reliability and operational life of the existing orbiter fleet, NASA has proposed various upgrades for the Space Shuttle that are consistent with national space policy. The cockpit avionics upgrade (CAU), a high priority item, has been selected as the next major upgrade. The primary functions of cockpit avionics include flight control, guidance and navigation, communication, and orbiter landing support. Secondary functions include the provision of operational services for non-avionics systems such as data handling for the payloads and caution and warning alerts to the crew. Recently, a process to selection the optimal commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) real-time operating system (RTOS) for the CAU was conducted by United Space Alliance (USA) Corporation, which is a joint venture between Boeing and Lockheed Martin, the prime contractor for space shuttle operations. In order to independently assess the RTOS selection, NASA has used the Bayesian network-based scoring methodology described in this paper. Our two-stage methodology addresses the issue of RTOS acceptability by incorporating functional, performance and non-functional software measures related to reliability, interoperability, certifiability, efficiency, correctness, business, legal, product history, cost and life cycle. The first stage of the methodology involves obtaining scores for the various measures using a Bayesian network. The Bayesian network incorporates the causal relationships between the various and often competing measures of interest while also assisting the inherently complex decision analysis process with its ability to reason under uncertainty. The structure and selection of prior probabilities for the network is extracted from experts in the field of real-time operating systems. Scores for the various measures are computed using Bayesian probability. In the second stage, multi-criteria trade-off analyses are performed between the scores. Using a prioritization of measures from the decision-maker, trade-offs between the scores are used to rank order the available set of RTOS candidates.

Morris, A. Terry↗
NASA NTRS1993

Case-based approach to handling aircraft malfunctions

Reasoning about physical systems in operation is a difficult task, and any attempt to automate the process must overcome the problems of modeling normal behavior, diagnosing faults, and predicting future behavior. This paper describes a prototypical case-based reasoner (CBR) that operates in the domain of in-flight fault diagnosis and prognosis of aviation subsystems, particularly jet engines. The reasoner operates on the observation that the ability of a CBR program to reason about physical systems can be significantly enhanced by the addition to the CBR program of a model of the physical system to describe the system's structural, functional, and causal behavior.

Karamouzis, Stamos T.↗
NASA NTRS2005

PlanWorks: A Debugging Environment for Constraint Based Planning Systems

Numerous planning and scheduling systems employ underlying constraint reasoning systems. Debugging such systems involves the search for errors in model rules, constraint reasoning algorithms, search heuristics, and the problem instance (initial state and goals). In order to effectively find such problems, users must see why each state or action is in a plan by tracking causal chains back to part of the initial problem instance. They must be able to visualize complex relationships among many different entities and distinguish between those entities easily. For example, a variable can be in the scope of several constraints, as well as part of a state or activity in a plan; the activity can arise as a consequence of another activity and a model rule. Finally, they must be able to track each logical inference made during planning. We have developed PlanWorks, a comprehensive system for debugging constraint-based planning and scheduling systems. PlanWorks assumes a strong transaction model of the entire planning process, including adding and removing parts of the constraint network, variable assignment, and constraint propagation. A planner logs all transactions to a relational database that is tailored to support queries for of specialized views to display different forms of data (e.g. constraints, activities, resources, and causal links). PlanWorks was specifically developed for the Extensible Universal Remote Operations Planning Architecture (EUROPA(sub 2)) developed at NASA, but the underlying principles behind PlanWorks make it useful for many constraint-based planning systems. The paper is organized as follows. We first describe some fundamentals of EUROPA(sub 2). We then describe PlanWorks' principal components. We then discuss each component in detail, and then describe inter-component navigation features. We close with a discussion of how PlanWorks is used to find model flaws.

Daley, Patrick↗
NASA NTRS2019

Radar Detection of High Concentrations of Ice Particles - Methodology and Preliminary Flight Test Results

High Ice Water Content (HIWC) has been identified as a primary causal factor in numerous engine events over the past two decades. Previous attempts to develop a remote detection process utilizing modern commercial radars have failed to produce reliable results. This paper discusses the reasons for previous failures and describes a new technique that has shown very encouraging accuracy and range performance without the need for any hardware modifications to industry’s current radar designs. The performance of this new process was evaluated during the joint NASA/FAA HIWC RADAR II Flight Campaign in August of 2018. Results from that evaluation are discussed, along with the potential for commercial application, and development of minimum operational performance standards for a future commercial radar product.

Harrah, Steven D.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Science observed: The mass-extinction debates

The upheaval triggered in 1980 by the Alvarez-Berkeley group impact hypothesis transformed the literature of mass extinctions from an unfocused, sporadic collection of papers that virtually ignored extraterrestrial causes and treated endogenous ones only sparingly better to an integrated, diverse body of literature. Research programs organized seemingly overnight spawned collaborative teams whose members, often from distant, isolated disciplines, redirected their careers in order to address the captivating, high-stakes issues. The initial, generally skeptical, cool reception of the impact hypothesis might have been predicted for any of a number of reasons: such an instantaneous catastrophe contravened earth science's reigning philosophy of uniformitarianism; it was formulated from a form of evidence - siderophile element anomalies - alien to the community charged with its appraisal; it advanced a causal mechanism that was improbable in terms of canonical knowledge; and it was proffered mainly by specialists alien to earth and biological science, especially paleobiology. Early on it became clear that irrespective of which causal hypothesis was chosen, the chosen one would be the strongest predictor of how the chooser would select and apply standards in assessing evidence bearing on all such hypothesis. Less strong correlation also appeared between disciplinary speciality and the assessment of evidence. Such correlations varied with the level of specialization; the most robust correlations appeared in the broadest areas of science practice. The gestalt (mindset) seemingly engendered by the embrace of an extinction hypothesis overrode, or was stronger than, the intellectual predispositions attributable to disciplinary specialty.

Glen, W.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A cloud/particle model of the interstellar medium - Galactic spiral structure

A cloud/particle model for gas flow in galaxies is developed that incorporates cloud-cloud collisions and supernovae as dominant local processes. Cloud-cloud collisions are the main means of dissipation. To counter this dissipation and maintain local dispersion, supernova explosions in the medium administer radial snowplow pushes to all nearby clouds. The causal link between these processes is that cloud-cloud collisions will form stars and that these stars will rapidly become supernovae. The cloud/particle model is tested and used to investigate the gas dynamics and spiral structures in galaxies where these assumptions may be reasonable. Particular attention is given to whether large-scale galactic shock waves, which are thought to underlie the regular well-delineated spiral structure in some galaxies, form and persist in a cloud-supernova dominated interstellar medium; this question is answered in the affirmative.

Levinson, F. H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Investigation Organizer

Contents include the folloving:Overview of the Application; Input Data; Analytical Process; Tool's Output; and Application of the Results of the Analysis.The tool enables the first element through a Web-based application that can be accessed by distributed teams to store and retrieve any type of digital investigation material in a secure environment. The second is accomplished by making the relationships between information explicit through the use of a semantic network-a structure that literally allows an investigator or team to "connect -the-dots." The third element, the significance of the correlated information, is established through causality and consistency tests using a number of different methods embedded within the tool, including fault trees, event sequences, and other accident models. And finally, the evidence gathered and structured within the tool can be directly, electronically archived to preserve the evidence and investigative reasoning.

Panontin, Tina↗
NASA NTRS2007

Systems Modeling to Implement Integrated System Health Management Capability

ISHM capability includes: detection of anomalies, diagnosis of causes of anomalies, prediction of future anomalies, and user interfaces that enable integrated awareness (past, present, and future) by users. This is achieved by focused management of data, information and knowledge (DIaK) that will likely be distributed across networks. Management of DIaK implies storage, sharing (timely availability), maintaining, evolving, and processing. Processing of DIaK encapsulates strategies, methodologies, algorithms, etc. focused on achieving high ISHM Functional Capability Level (FCL). High FCL means a high degree of success in detecting anomalies, diagnosing causes, predicting future anomalies, and enabling health integrated awareness by the user. A model that enables ISHM capability, and hence, DIaK management, is denominated the ISHM Model of the System (IMS). We describe aspects of the IMS that focus on processing of DIaK. Strategies, methodologies, and algorithms require proper context. We describe an approach to define and use contexts, implementation in an object-oriented software environment (G2), and validation using actual test data from a methane thruster test program at NASA SSC. Context is linked to existence of relationships among elements of a system. For example, the context to use a strategy to detect leak is to identify closed subsystems (e.g. bounded by closed valves and by tanks) that include pressure sensors, and check if the pressure is changing. We call these subsystems Pressurizable Subsystems. If pressure changes are detected, then all members of the closed subsystem become suspect of leakage. In this case, the context is defined by identifying a subsystem that is suitable for applying a strategy. Contexts are defined in many ways. Often, a context is defined by relationships of function (e.g. liquid flow, maintaining pressure, etc.), form (e.g. part of the same component, connected to other components, etc.), or space (e.g. physically close, touching the same common element, etc.). The context might be defined dynamically (if conditions for the context appear and disappear dynamically) or statically. Although this approach is akin to case-based reasoning, we are implementing it using a software environment that embodies tools to define and manage relationships (of any nature) among objects in a very intuitive manner. Context for higher level inferences (that use detected anomalies or events), primarily for diagnosis and prognosis, are related to causal relationships. This is useful to develop root-cause analysis trees showing an event linked to its possible causes and effects. The innovation pertaining to RCA trees encompasses use of previously defined subsystems as well as individual elements in the tree. This approach allows more powerful implementations of RCA capability in object-oriented environments. For example, if a pressurizable subsystem is leaking, its root-cause representation within an RCA tree will show that the cause is that all elements of that subsystem are suspect of leak. Such a tree would apply to all instances of leak-events detected and all elements in all pressurizable subsystems in the system. Example subsystems in our environment to build IMS include: Pressurizable Subsystem, Fluid-Fill Subsystem, Flow-Thru-Valve Subsystem, and Fluid Supply Subsystem. The software environment for IMS is designed to potentially allow definition of any relationship suitable to create a context to achieve ISHM capability.

Figueroa, Jorge F.↗