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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance losses routines for the detection and classification of incidents in large‐scale photovoltaic systems

Abstract Fault detection and classification in photovoltaic (PV) systems through real‐time monitoring is a fundamental task that ensures quality of operation and significantly improves the performance and reliability of operating systems. Different statistical and comparative approaches have already been proposed in the literature for fault detection; however, accurate classification of fault and loss incidents based on PV performance time series remains a key challenge. Failure diagnosis and trend‐based performance loss routines were developed in this work for detecting PV underperformance and accurately identifying the different fault types and loss mechanisms. The proposed routines focus mainly on the differentiation of failures (e.g., inverter faults) from irreversible (e.g., degradation) and reversible (e.g., snow and soiling) performance loss factors based on statistical analysis. The proposed routines were benchmarked using historical inverter data obtained from a 1.8 MWp PV power plant. The results demonstrated the effectiveness of the routines for detecting failures and loss mechanisms and the capability of the pipeline for distinguishing underperformance issues using anomaly detection and change‐point (CP) models. Finally, a CP model was used to extract significant changes in time series data, to detect soiling and cleaning events and to estimate both the performance loss and degradation rates of fielded PV systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Automated detection of photovoltaic cleaning events: A performance comparison of techniques as applied to a broad set of labeled photovoltaic data sets

Extracting accurate soiling loss information from photovoltaic (PV) production data first requires segmenting the time series data per natural or manually occurring cleaning events. Maintenance logs are often incomplete, rain data are often unavailable, and the debate on rain thresholds for cleaning and dew or wind cleanings is still ongoing. The present work aims to overtake these issues by improving automated methods to detect these cleaning events and therefore improve extraction of soiling loss information. Time series power production data from 22 PV inverters were labeled for natural or manually occurring cleaning events. The data sets were carefully selected to include varying degrees of soiling, cleaning events, and noise. Several algorithms, including filtering logic and change point detection, were examined for efficacy at detecting the labeled cleanings. All the methods introduced except for changepoint detection showed significant improvement at detecting the labeled cleaning events per the mean F 1 score. Furthermore, the highest performing cleaning detection algorithm achieved an absolute increase in the mean F 1 score of 43% over the default version of the RdTools stochastic rate and recovery (SRR) algorithm. The highest performing algorithm included irradiance filtering and a cleaning detection threshold, adjusted based on the 40-day centered rolling median of the absolute day-to-day deviations in the daily performance index (PI). Furthermore, these improvements are promising as cleaning detection is an essential step in the automated analysis of PV soiling.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

PANDEMIC: Occupancy driven predictive ventilation control to minimize energy consumption and infection risk

During the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, governments around the world have formulated policies requiring ventilation systems to operate at a higher outdoor fresh air flow rate for a sufficient time, which has led to a sharp increase in building energy consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to identify an energy-efficient ventilation strategy to reduce the risk of infection. In this study, we developed an occupant-number-based model predictive control (OBMPC) algorithm for building ventilation systems. First, we collected the occupancy and Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system (HVAC) data from March to July 2021. Then, four different models (Auto regression moving average-based multilayer perceptron (ARMA_MLP), Recurrent neural networks (RNN), Long short-term memory networks (LSTM), and Nonhomogeneous Markov with change points detection (NH_Markov)) were used to predict the number of room occupants from 15 min to 24 h ahead with an interval output. We found that each model could predict the number of occupants with 85% accuracy using a one-person offset. Furthermore, the accuracy of 15 min of the ahead prediction could reach 95% with a one-person offset, but none of them could track abrupt changes. The occupancy prediction results were used to calculate the ventilation demand using the Wells-Riley equation, and the upper bound can maintain an infection risk lower than 2% for 93% of the day. This OBMPC model could reduce the coil load by 52.44% and shift the peak load by 3 h up to 5 kW compared with 24 × 7 h full outdoor air (OA) system when people wear masks in the space. The occupancy prediction uncertainty could cause a 9% to 26% difference in demand ventilation, a 0.3°C to 2.4°C difference in zone temperature, a 28.5% to 44.5% difference in outdoor airflow rate, and a 10.7% to 28.2% difference in coil load.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2006

Variations in the Sea Ice Edge and the Marginal Ice Zone on Different Spatial Scales as Observed from Different Satellite Sensor

The Marginal sea Ice Zone (MIZ) and the sea ice edge are the most dynamic areas of the sea ice cover. Knowledge of the sea ice edge location is vital for routing shipping in the polar regions. The ice edge is the location of recurrent plankton blooms, and is the habitat for a number of animals, including several which are under severe ecological threat. Polar lows are known to preferentially form along the sea ice edge because of induced atmospheric baroclinicity, and the ice edge is also the location of both vertical and horizontal ocean currents driven by thermal and salinity gradients. Finally, sea ice is both a driver and indicator of climate change and monitoring the position of the ice edge accurately over long time periods enables assessment of the impact of global and regional warming near the poles. Several sensors are currently in orbit that can monitor the sea ice edge. These sensors, though, have different spatial resolutions, different limitations, and different repeat frequencies. Satellite passive microwave sensors can monitor the ice edge on a daily or even twice-daily basis, albeit with low spatial resolution - 25 km for the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) or 12.5 km for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E). Although special methods exist that allow the detection of the sea ice edge at a quarter of that nominal resolution (PSSM). Visible and infrared data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) provide daily coverage at 1 km and 250 m, respectively, but the surface observations me limited to cloud-free periods. The Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper (ETM+) has a resolution of 15 to 30 m but is limited to cloud-free periods as well, and does not provide daily coverage. Imagery from Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) instruments has resolutions of tens of meters to 100 m, and can be used to distinguish open water and sea ice on the basis of surface and volume scattering characteristics. The Canadian RADARSAT C-band SAR provides data that cover the Arctic Ocean and the MIZ every 3 days. A change-point detection approach was utilized to obtain an ice edge estimate from the RADARSAT data The Quickscat scatterometer provides ice edge information with a resolution of a few kilometers on a near-daily basis. During portions of March and April of 2003 a series of aircraft flights were conducted over the ice edge in the Bering Sea carrying the Polarimetric Scanning Radiometer (PSR), which provides spectral coverage identical with the AMSR-E instrument at a resolution of 500 meters. In this study we investigated these different data sets and analyzed differences in their definition of the sea ice edge and the marginal ice zone and how these differences as well as their individual limitations affect the monitoring of the ice edge dynamics. We also examined how the nature of the sea ice edge, including its location, compactness and shape, changes over the seasons. Our approach was based on calculation of distances between ice edges derived from the satellite and aircraft data sets listed above as well as spectral coherence methods and shape parameters such as tortuosity, curvature, and fractional dimension.

Markus, Thorsten↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Unsupervised Change Detection for Space Habitats Using 3D Point Clouds

This work presents an algorithm for scene change detection from point clouds to enable autonomous robotic caretaking in future space habitats. Autonomous robotic systems will help maintain future deep-space habitats, such as the Gateway space station, which will be uncrewed for extended periods. Existing scene analysis software used on the International Space Station (ISS) relies on manually-labeled images for detecting changes. In contrast, the algorithm presented in this work uses raw, unlabeled point clouds as inputs. The algorithm first applies modified Expectation-Maximization Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) clustering to two input point clouds. It then performs change detection by comparing the GMMs using the Earth Mover’s Distance. The algorithm is validated quantitatively and qualitatively using a test dataset collected by an Astrobee robot in the NASA Ames Granite Lab comprising single frame depth images taken directly by Astrobee and full-scene reconstructed maps built with RGB-D and pose data from Astrobee. The runtimes of the approach are also analyzed in depth. The source code is publicly released to promote further development.

robotics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying the effects of urbanization on floods in a changing environment to promote water security — A case study of two adjacent basins in Texas

The increased occurrence of flood events resulting from urbanization and global climate change is a great threat to water security. To systematically evaluate the impacts of urbanization on floods, here we applied a paired catchments approach to two adjacent river basins in south-central Texas — the San Antonio River Basin (SARB), with fast urbanization; and the Guadalupe River Basin (GRB), with little land cover change. A physics-based distributed hydrological model — the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, embedded with a multi-purpose reservoir module (DHSVM-Res) — was used to simulate streamflow and reservoir storage. The simulations were conducted under different land cover scenarios, including a newly developed continuous land cover series (CLCS). Holistic analyses were then conducted for the paired basins using three methods: analyzing the selected flood events, detecting change points (CP) of monthly floods, and testing the elasticity of long-term flood regimes. The results suggest that: (1) urbanization may reduce lag time and elevate flood peaks significantly by 3–30% in our study area; (2) when there is little land cover change, changing climate is the major driver of variations in the monthly maximum streamflow (MMS); (3) fast urbanization can amplify streamflow variability, increase MMS significantly, and thus alter the timing of CP; and (4) the mean MMS of observed streamflow in the SARB has increased by as much as 75.7% from the pre-CP to post-CP periods. This comprehensive study fills in a gap in our current understanding of the isolated impacts of urbanization on flooding and is expected to support future explorations of anthropogenic influences on floods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Impact of duration and missing data on the long-term photovoltaic degradation rate estimation

Accurate quantification of photovoltaic (PV) system degradation rate (R D ) is essential for lifetime yield predictions. Although R D is a critical parameter, its estimation lacks a standardized methodology that can be applied on outdoor field data. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of time period duration and missing data on R D by analyzing the performance of different techniques applied to synthetic PV system data at different linear R D patterns and known noise conditions. The analysis includes the application of different techniques to a 10-year synthetic dataset of a crystalline Silicon PV system, with emulated degradation levels and imputed missing data. Here, the analysis demonstrated that the accuracy of ordinary least squares (OLS), year-on-year (YOY), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and robust principal component analysis (RPCA) techniques is affected by the evaluation duration with all techniques converging to lower R D deviations over the 10-year evaluation, apart from RPCA at high degradation levels. Moreover, the estimated R D is strongly affected by the amount of missing data. Filtering out the corrupted data yielded more accurate R D results for all techniques. It is proven that the application of a change-point detection stage is necessary and guidelines for accurate R D estimation are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating Sea Breezes and Associated Convective Cloud Evolution in the Model Gray Zone

We characterize convective clouds associated with sea‐breeze circulations (SBC) using multi‐agency observations and multi‐case ensemble model simulations. The focus is on assessing convective cloud lifecycle properties and their merging behavior, as well as the environmental conditions they are embedded in, particularly SBC features. In total, 46 SBC days over the Houston‐Galveston region are selected and simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model at a gray zone scale with a forecast‐like parameterization setup. Advanced techniques, including change‐point detection, a Lagrangian cloud tracking method, and a newly developed cell merging and splitting detection algorithm, are applied and/or developed for this study. Our findings indicate that the WRF model at 1 km grid spacing well represents the thermodynamic conditions over the region, as well as SBC timing and intensity. However, for the associated convective cells, WRF overestimates the 30‐dBZ echo top height, cell area, and maximum radar reflectivity compared to radar observations. This overestimation is potentially due to under‐resolved entrainment processes, an overestimated merging frequency, and the overestimation of updraft intensity. Furthermore, the model exhibits a deficiency in simulating congestus clouds, showing a more rapid transition from shallow to deep convection compared to observed behavior. Moreover, observations indicate stronger, deeper, and wider clouds when merging happens. Conversely, in simulations, the merging process does not necessarily lead to higher or longer‐lived cells, as many cases experience rapid and frequent merging and splitting which may result in more variance in convective updraft velocity during the convection lifetime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Poisson-response Tensor-on-Tensor Regression and Applications

We introduce Poisson-response tensor-on-tensor regression (PToTR), a novel regression framework designed to handle tensor responses composed element-wise of random Poisson-distributed counts. Tensors, or multi-dimensional arrays, composed of counts are common data in fields such as inter national relations, social networks, epidemiology, and medical imaging, where events occur across multiple dimensions like time, location, and dyads. PToTR accommodates such tensor responses alongside tensor covariates, providing a versatile tool for multi dimensional data analysis. We propose algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation under a canonical polyadic (CP) structure on the regression coefficient tensor that satisfy the positivity of Poisson parameters and then provide an initial theoretical error analysis for PToTR estimators. We also demonstrate the utility of PToTR through three concrete applications: longitudinal data analysis of the Integrated Crisis Early Warning System database, positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction, and change-point detection of communication patterns in longitudinal dyadic data. These applications highlight the versatility of PToTR in addressing complex, structured count data across various domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

ILRS Analysis Activities After the Adoption of ITRF2020

"The contribution of the International Laser Ranging Service (ILRS) to the most recent realization of the International Terrestrial Reference System (ITRS) was the result of an analysis strategy with two major modifications compared to the operational products: a modeling for stations long-term systematic errors (biases reported in the ILRS Data Handling File) and an updated model of the target signature error (satellite Centre of Mass model). Both refined models were used as input information for the ILRS contribution to the ITRF2020 (International Terrestrial Reference Frame 2020). Thereafter, the ILRS Analysis Standing Committee (ASC) focused its effort on implementing the new reference frame in its operational products, define a strategy to improve the ongoing monitoring of the systematic errors, compute the ILRS contribution to the planned ITRF2020 update, and to include LARES-2 among the considered satellites for the operational products. The ILRS ASC implemented the ITRF2020/SLRF2020 into all its official operational products (TRF, Earth Orientation Parameters, predicted and combined satellite orbits) and its impact was evaluated. The operational products benefit from the continuous monitoring of the station systematic errors and the frequent updates of the Data Handling File whenever a significant change in the station systematic error is observed. In the future, a change-point detection algorithm, jointly estimating the times and the number of discontinuities, will be implemented to detect potential new discontinuities in the range bias series. The inclusion of LARES-2 among the satellites whose data are operationally analyzed will furtherly increase the robustness of the estimated parameters. Finally, the ILRS ASC activities include the benchmarking of a new analysis center (CNES) which will formally begin its own contribution in 2024."

Satellite Laser Ranging↗
NASA NTRS2011

Method for Measuring Collimator-Pointing Sensitivity to Temperature Changes

For a variety of applications, it is important to measure the sensitivity of the pointing of a beam emerging from a collimator, as a function of temperature changes. A straightforward method for carrying out this measurement is based on using interferometry for monitoring the changes in beam pointing, which presents its own problems. The added temperature dependence and complexity issues relating to using an interferometer are addressed by not using an interferometer in the first place. Instead, the collimator is made part of an arrangement that uses a minimum number of low-cost, off-the-shelf materials and by using a quad diode to measure changes in beam pointing. In order to minimize the influence of the test arrangement on the outcome of the measurement, several steps are taken. The collimator assembly is placed on top of a vertical, 1-m-long, fused silica tube. The quad diode is bonded to a fused silica bar, which, in turn, is bonded to the lower end of the fused silica tube. The lower end of the tube rests on a self-aligning support piece, while the upper end of the tube is kept against two rounded setscrew tips, using a soft rubber string. This ensures that very little stress is applied to the tube as the support structure changes dimensions due to thermal expansion. Light is delivered to the collimator through a bare fiber in order to minimize variable bending torque caused by a randomly relaxing, rigid fiber jacket. In order to separate the effect of temperature on the collimator assembly from the effect temperature has on the rest of the setup, multiple measurements are taken with the collimator assembly rotated from measurement to measurement. Laboratory testing, with 1-m spacing between the collimator and the quad diode, has shown that the sensitivity of the arrangement is better than 100 nm rms, over time spans of at least one hour, if the beam path is protected from atmospheric turbulence by a tube. The equivalent sensitivity to detecting changes in pointing angle is 100 nanoradians.

Abramovici, Alex↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Ocular Outcomes Comparison Between 14- and 70-day Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

INTRODUCTION: Ophthalmological changes, including optic disc edema with optic nerve sheath distension, posterior globe flattening with hyperopic shift, choroidal folds and cotton wool spots have been detected in some astronauts involved in long-duration spaceflights. (sup 1) It is hypothesized that elevated intracranial pressure resulting from microgravity-induced cephalad fluid shifts may be responsible for most of these findings. Head-down tilt bed rest (HTDBR) is a ground-based microgravity analog which also produces cephalad fluid shifts. It is conceivable that prolonged HDTBR exposure may induce ocular changes similar to those experienced in microgravity. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to compare structural and functional ocular outcomes between 14- and 70-day HDTBR in healthy human subjects. It is hypothesized that 70-d HDTBR induced ocular changes of greater magnitude as compared to 14-d HDTBR. METHODS: Two HDTBR studies were conducted at the NASA Flight Analogs Research Unit, located at The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, TX. Identical NASA standard screening procedures and BR conditions (e.g., strict sleep-wake cycle, standardized diet, continuous video monitoring) were implemented in both studies. Participants spent 14 and/or 70 consecutive days in a 6deg HDT position and did not engage in exercise. Subjects received weekly ocular examinations before, during, and after HDTBR. Ocular testing included: distance and near best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), cycloplegic refraction, intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement, color vision, red dot test, modified Amsler grid test, confrontational visual field, color fundus photography and Spectral-domain OCT scans of the macula and the optic disc. Pre/post HDTBR differences between the two studies will be evaluated for BCVA, spherical equivalent, IOP, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and macular OCT parameters. RESULTS: 16 (12 males and 4 females) and 6 (5 males and 1 female) subjects participated in the 14 and 70-day HDTBR studies, respectively. One subject participated in both studies. The demographic and ophthalmological characteristics of the 14-day HDTBR study have been presented elsewhere.2 In the 70- day study, subjects age averaged 39.5 +/- 7.8 years; pre- and post-HDTBR Goldmann IOP were, on average, 15.4 and 14.6 mmHg in the right eye, and 15.3 and 14.4 mmHg in the left eye, respectively; preand post-HDTBR Spectralis OCT (Heidelberg Engineering, GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany) average RNFL thickness were 103.8 and 106 μm in the right eye, and 103 and 104.3 μm in the left eye, respectively. In both studies, color vision, red dot test, modified Amsler grid test and confrontational visual field were within normal limits at all time points; no changes were detected on stereoscopic color optic disc photography. For the above outcomes, preliminary results of the pre/post HDTBR differences between the two studies will be presented at the 2015 Human Research Program Investigators' Workshop. CONCLUSIONS: Although 14-day HDTBR did not seem to induce clinically relevant ocular changes, (sup 2) a systematic evaluation and comparison with the 70-day HDTBR study results will elucidate whether the magnitude of ocular structural and functional changes is affected by the time spent in the recumbent position. Further research will also address the effects of integrated resistance and aerobic training during HDTBR on the ocular outcomes. REFERENCES: 1. Mader TH et al. Optic disc edema, globe flattening, choroidal folds, and hyperopic shifts observed in astronauts after long-duration space flight. Ophthalmology. 2011;118(10):2058-69. 2. Taibbi G et al. Ocular outcomes evaluation in a 14-day head-down bed rest study. Aviat Space Environ Med. 2014;85(10):983-92.

Cromwell, R.L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Extreme metrics from large ensembles: investigating the effects of ensemble size on their estimates

Abstract. We consider the problem of estimating the ensemble sizes required to characterize the forced component and the internal variability of a number of extreme metrics. While we exploit existing large ensembles, our perspective is that of a modeling center wanting to estimate a priori such sizes on the basis of an existing small ensemble (we assume the availability of only five members here). We therefore ask if such a small-size ensemble is sufficient to estimate accurately the population variance (i.e., the ensemble internal variability) and then apply a well-established formula that quantifies the expected error in the estimation of the population mean (i.e., the forced component) as a function of the sample size n, here taken to mean the ensemble size. We find that indeed we can anticipate errors in the estimation of the forced component for temperature and precipitation extremes as a function of n by plugging into the formula an estimate of the population variance derived on the basis of five members. For a range of spatial and temporal scales, forcing levels (we use simulations under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) and two models considered here as our proof of concept, it appears that an ensemble size of 20 or 25 members can provide estimates of the forced component for the extreme metrics considered that remain within small absolute and percentage errors. Additional members beyond 20 or 25 add only marginal precision to the estimate, and this remains true when statistical inference through extreme value analysis is used. We then ask about the ensemble size required to estimate the ensemble variance (a measure of internal variability) along the length of the simulation and – importantly – about the ensemble size required to detect significant changes in such variance along the simulation with increased external forcings. Using the F test, we find that estimates on the basis of only 5 or 10 ensemble members accurately represent the full ensemble variance even when the analysis is conducted at the grid-point scale. The detection of changes in the variance when comparing different times along the simulation, especially for the precipitation-based metrics, requires larger sizes but not larger than 15 or 20 members. While we recognize that there will always exist applications and metric definitions requiring larger statistical power and therefore ensemble sizes, our results suggest that for a wide range of analysis targets and scales an effective estimate of both forced component and internal variability can be achieved with sizes below 30 members. This invites consideration of the possibility of exploring additional sources of uncertainty, such as physics parameter settings, when designing ensemble simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1973

Utilization of ERTS-1 data in the Houston area

The author has identified the following significant results. Using clustering techniques, several large lakes in Texas have been accurately delineated in computer printout graymaps. It was also found that small bodies of water (one to two acres in size) could be detected by searching for small reflectance values in the infrared data. A graymap printout of a lake described a shore outline that was not consistent with available maps. Field examination revealed that the actual level of the lake was below that for which the map was drawn. The current lake configuration agrees in shape and relative size with the ERTS-1 data printout. Water turbidity causes reflectance changes which are detectable in ERTS-1 band 7 data. A comparison has been made of the Monterey Bay, California area using 1971 aerial color infrared photography and a 1972 ERTS-1 band 7 infrared image. This comparison revealed that some event has occurred to impound a significant amount of water in the area since the infrared photography was taken. Data values in the ERTS-1 infrared image exhibit detectable changes in brightness at inflow points, where high turbidity would be present. Researchers had not expected to detect water turbidity patterns in band 7 (800 to 1100 nanometers).

Erb, R. B.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward Statistical Real-Time Power Fault Detection

We propose statistical fault detection methodology based on high-frequency data streams that are becoming available in modern power grids. Our approach can be treated as an online (sequential) change point monitoring methodology. However, due to the mostly unexplored and very nonstandard structure of high-frequency power grid streaming data, substantial new statistical development is required to make this methodology practically applicable. The paper includes development of scalar detectors based on multichannel data streams, determination of data-driven alarm thresholds and investigation of the performance and robustness of the new tools. Due to a reasonably large database of faults, we can calculate frequencies of false and correct fault signals, and recommend implementations that optimize these empirical success rates.

bolted faults↗