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At least 37 records · Page 2

Physically-Derived Dynamical Cores in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

The algorithm chosen to represent the advection in atmospheric models is often used as the primary attribute to classify the model. Meteorological models are generally classified as spectral or grid point, with the term grid point implying discretization using finite differences. These traditional approaches have a number of shortcomings that render them non-physical. That is, they provide approximate solutions to the conservation equations that do not obey the fundamental laws of physics. The most commonly discussed shortcomings are overshoots and undershoots which manifest themselves most overtly in the constituent continuity equation. For this reason many climate models have special algorithms to model water vapor advection. This talk focuses on the development of an atmospheric general circulation model which uses a consistent physically-based advection algorithm in all aspects of the model formulation. The shallow-water model is generalized to three dimensions and combined with the physics parameterizations of NCAR's Community Climate Model. The scientific motivation for the development is to increase the integrity of the underlying fluid dynamics so that the physics terms can be more effectively isolated, examined, and improved. The expected benefits of the new model are discussed and results from the initial integrations will be presented.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Physically-Derived Dynamical Cores in Atmospheric General Circulation Models

The algorithm chosen to represent the advection in atmospheric models is often used as the primary attribute to classify the model. Meteorological models are generally classified as spectral or grid point, with the term grid point implying discretization using finite differences. These traditional approaches have a number of shortcomings that render them non-physical. That is, they provide approximate solutions to the conservation equations that do not obey the fundamental laws of physics. The most commonly discussed shortcomings are overshoots and undershoots which manifest themselves most overtly in the constituent continuity equation. For this reason many climate models have special algorithms to model water vapor advection. This talk focuses on the development of an atmospheric general circulation model which uses a consistent physically-based advection algorithm in all aspects of the model formulation. The shallow-water model of Lin and Rood (QJRMS, 1997) is generalized to three dimensions and combined with the physics parameterizations of NCAR's Community Climate Model. The scientific motivation for the development is to increase the integrity of the underlying fluid dynamics so that the physics terms can be more effectively isolated, examined, and improved. The expected benefits of the new model are discussed and results from the initial integrations will be presented.

Rood, Richard B.↗

Thundercloud electrification models in atmospheric electricity and meteorology

A survey is presented of presently-available theoretical models. The models are classified into three main groups: (1) convection models, (2) precipitation models, and (3) general models. The strengths and weaknesses of the models, their dimensionalities and degrees of sophistication, the nature of their inputs and outputs, and the various specific charging mechanisms treated by them, are considered. In results obtained to date, the convection models predict no significant electrification enhancement based on conductivity gradients and convection alone, with the assumed air circulation patterns. Results of the precipitation models show that the initial electrification can occur rapidly and stably through noninductive collision mechanisms involving ice, and breakdown-strength electric fields can relatively easily be achieved subsequently through the collisional-inductive mechanism. A critical difficulty of the collision mechanisms is imprecise knowledge of relaxation times versus contact times, which can easily lead to overestimates of electrification. The general model results tend to support those of the precipitation models in emphasizing the high potential effectiveness of the collisional-inductive mechanism.

Parker, L. W.↗

Spatio-temporal contextual classification based on Markov random field model

A contextural classifier based on a Markov random field model, which can utilize both spatial and temporal contexts, is investigated. Spatial and temporal neighbors are defined, and the class assignment of each pixel is assumed to be dependent only on the measurement vectors of itself and those of its spatial and temporal neighbors according to the Markov random field property. Only interpixel class dependency context is used in the classification. The joint prior probability of the classes of each pixel and its spatial and temporal neighbors are modeled by a Gibbs random field. The classification is performed in a recursive manner. Experiments with multi-temporal Thematic Mapper data show promising results.

Jeon, Byeungwoo↗

Incorporating spatial context into statistical classification of multidimensional image data

Compound decision theory is employed to develop a general statistical model for classifying image data using spatial context. The classification algorithm developed from this model exploits the tendency of certain ground-cover classes to occur more frequently in some spatial contexts than in others. A key input to this contextural classifier is a quantitative characterization of this tendency: the context function. Several methods for estimating the context function are explored, and two complementary methods are recommended. The contextural classifier is shown to produce substantial improvements in classification accuracy compared to the accuracy produced by a non-contextural uniform-priors maximum likelihood classifier when these methods of estimating the context function are used. An approximate algorithm, which cuts computational requirements by over one-half, is presented. The search for an optimal implementation is furthered by an exploration of the relative merits of using spectral classes or information classes for classification and/or context function estimation.

Bauer, M. E.↗

An overview of reliability growth models and their potential use for NASA applications

An overview is provided of reliability growth literature over the past 25 years. This includes a thorough literature review of different areas of the application of reliability growth such as design, prediction, tracking/management, and demonstration. Various reliability growth models use different bases on how they characterize growth. Different models are discussed. Also, the use is addressed of reliability growth models to NASA applications. This includes the application of these models to the space shuttle main engine. For potential NASA applications, we classify growth models in two groups, which are characterized.

Taneja, V. S.↗

Modeling for Battery Prognostics

For any battery-powered vehicles (be it unmanned aerial vehicles, small passenger aircraft, or assets in exoplanetary operations) to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it is critical to monitor battery health as well performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL). To fulfil these needs, it is important to capture the battery's inherent characteristics as well as operational knowledge in the form of models that can be used by monitoring, diagnostic, and prognostic algorithms. Several battery modeling methodologies have been developed in last few years as the understanding of underlying electrochemical mechanics has been advancing. The models can generally be classified as empirical models, electrochemical engineering models, multi-physics models, and molecular/atomist. Empirical models are based on fitting certain functions to past experimental data, without making use of any physicochemical principles. Electrical circuit equivalent models are an example of such empirical models. Electrochemical engineering models are typically continuum models that include electrochemical kinetics and transport phenomena. Each model has its advantages and disadvantages. The former type of model has the advantage of being computationally efficient, but has limited accuracy and robustness, due to the approximations used in developed model, and as a result of such approximations, cannot represent aging well. The latter type of model has the advantage of being very accurate, but is often computationally inefficient, having to solve complex sets of partial differential equations, and thus not suited well for online prognostic applications. In addition both multi-physics and atomist models are computationally expensive hence are even less suited to online application An electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries has been developed, that captures crucial electrochemical processes, captures effects of aging, is computationally efficient, and is of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of operational profiles. The model can be considered an electrochemical engineering model, but unlike most such models found in the literature, certain approximations are done that allow to retain computational efficiency for online implementation of the model. Although the focus here is on Li-ion batteries, the model is quite general and can be applied to different chemistries through a change of model parameter values. Progress on model development, providing model validation results and EOD prediction results is being presented.

Prognostics↗

Calibration or inverse regression: Which is appropriate for crop surveys using LANDSAT data?

Calibration and inverse regression estimators of crop proportions are investigated where the auxiliary variable is obtained from binary classification of multivariate LANDSAT data. The appropriate model relating classifier proportions and ground observed proportions for a given crop type is the calibration model. Under this model the inverse regression estimator is superior to the calibration estimator in estimating the crop acreage or proportion for a region of interest.

Chhikara, R. S.↗

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Predicting the Functional State of Protein Kinases Using Interpretable Graph Neural Networks

Kinases are a family of proteins that function as molecular switches, regulating several essential cellular activities such as cell proliferation. Dysfunctional kinases are implicated in several types of cancers and hence they are actively pursued as drug targets. Given the vast number of complex kinase structures that are available in the protein data bank (PDB), there is a necessity to develop methodologies that can identify structurally important moieties of the kinases in an automated fashion, for such techniques can be instrumental in identifying novel drug targets. In this work, we develop a graph neural network (GNN) based deep learning framework for classifying the functionally active and inactive states of a large set of eukaryotic protein kinases, making use of their 3D structure from the PDB. We show that GNN based machine learning models can classify protein states with an accuracy greater than 97%. We further use the GNN models to automatically identify regions of the kinases that are important for its function. For this purpose, Gradient-weighted Class Activation Mapping (Grad-CAM) was implemented on the protein graphs. Remarkably, Grad-CAM consistently identifies the highly conserved DFG motif as the most important part of the protein across the entire kinome, without any prior input. Other regions of the hydrophobic core such as the HRD motif were also identified by the interpretable GNN framework, consistent with the literature. We discuss the significance of each of these regions in detail.

Ashwin Ravichandran↗

Markov reliability models for digital flight control systems

The reliability of digital flight control systems can often be accurately predicted using Markov chain models. The cost of numerical solution depends on a model's size and stiffness. Acyclic Markov models, a useful special case, are particularly amenable to efficient numerical solution. Even in the general case, instantaneous coverage approximation allows the reduction of some cyclic models to more readily solvable acyclic models. After considering the solution of single-phase models, the discussion is extended to phased-mission models. Phased-mission reliability models are classified based on the state restoration behavior that occurs between mission phases. As an economical approach for the solution of such models, the mean failure rate solution method is introduced. A numerical example is used to show the influence of fault-model parameters and interphase behavior on system unreliability.

Mcgough, John↗

Navigating Team Dynamics: Automated Detection of Micro-Behaviors Between Team Members Through Longitudinal Interaction Data

The success in future long term space exploration missions will depend on the cooperation, coordination, and mutual understanding among the crew members. Micro-behaviors are momentary, subtle linguistic and paralinguistic indicators of thinking and feeling toward another member of the team (Cortina et al., 2001; Smith & Griffiths, 2022) that can significantly impact team dynamics and influence the overall team performance (Paromita & Chaspari, 2024). Due to their interactive nature, micro-behaviors have a sender (i.e., the team member expressing the micro-behavior) and a target (the team member impacted by the micro-behavior). Detection of these behaviors can assist in avoiding possible conflict among crew members and promoting the overall team success. Our prior research focused on an initial proof of concept of machine learning (ML) models and natural language processing (NLP) techniques that were used for automatically detect micro-behaviors among crew members of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) Campaigns 4 and 5 missions (Paromita et al., 2023). Results underscored the importance of incorporating contextual information in the ML models in the form of sentiment analysis, type of task, and dyadic interaction among team members. Here, we expand the scope of our prior work in two ways. First, we assess ML/NLP methods on new behavioral annotations coded using an adapted version of Smith & Griffins (2022) theoretical framework in terms of Violation (i.e., presence of valenced behavior, uplifting/positive or discouraging/negative), Intensity (i.e., force of behavior in terms of how uplifting or discouraging is the behavior), and Intent (i.e., motive of the behavior in terms of whether it was deliberate or unintentional). Second, we expand the design of the ML model to preserve information about the role of each team member within the occurrence of the micro-behavior (in contrast to the previous model that only considered the sender and the target without determining the team member role). This allows to consider all team members' contributions in the conversation and model long-term dependencies in the dialogue. Our experiments for this study are conducted on data from 5 teams of the NASA HERA C4 (NASA grant NNX16AQ48G (PI: Bell)). Conversations were extracted from the 1.5 hour Team Interaction Battery (TIB) task that occurred 5 times in-mission per crew. This resulted in a total of 13,058 conversational turns (i.e., 17.8% uplifting, 3.3% discouraging, 75.76% neutral, 3.14% nulls). Our findings with the revised behavioral coding and ML/NLP models indicate a 43.66% macro F1-score (i.e., 38.29% precision (P), 50.8% recall (R)) for a dialog state-tracking model that includes information from the sender only, and a 40.9% F1-score (i.e., 38.7% P, 43.36% R) for the same model that includes information from both the sender and the target of the micro-behavior. These are significantly higher compared to simple random forest models that classify behaviors strictly based on speech content and do not consider iterative team dynamics, achieving a 36.07% F1-score (i.e., 39.04% R, 33.53% P). Our findings demonstrate potential ways to leverage large conversational datasets to better capture complex team dynamics. We will discuss future directions including proposed models that can incorporate additional mission days and tasks beyond the TIB for objectively quantifying team behavior at high temporal resolution in space exploration missions.

Projna Paromita↗

Preliminary analysis of the JAPE ground vehicle test data with an artificial neural network classifier

Remotely sensing and classifying military vehicles in a battlefield environment have been the source of much research over the past 20 years. The ability to know where threat vehicles are located is an obvious advantage to military personnel. In the past active methods of ground vehicle detection such as radar have been used, but with the advancement of technology to locate these active sensors, passive sensors are preferred. Passive sensors detect acoustic emissions, seismic movement, electromagnetic radiation, etc., produced by the target and use this information to describe it. Deriving the mathematical models to classify vehicles in this manner has been, and is, quite complex and not always reliable. However, with the resurgence of artificial neural network (ANN) research in the past few years, developing models for this work may be a thing of the past. Preliminary results from an ANN analysis to the tank signatures recorded at the Joint Acoustic Propagation Experiment (JAPE) at the US Army White Sands Missile Range, NM, in July 1991, are presented.

Larsen, Nathan F.↗

Research activities at the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition

The main research activities at the Center for Modeling of Turbulence and Transition (CMOTT) are described. The research objective of CMOTT is to improve and/or develop turbulence and transition models for propulsion systems. The flows of interest in propulsion systems can be both compressible and incompressible, three dimensional, bounded by complex wall geometries, chemically reacting, and involve 'bypass' transition. The most relevant turbulence and transition models for the above flows are one- and two-equation eddy viscosity models, Reynolds stress algebraic- and transport-equation models, pdf models, and multiple-scale models. All these models are classified as one-point closure schemes since only one-point (in time and space) turbulent correlations, such as second moments (Reynolds stresses and turbulent heat fluxes) and third moments, are involved. In computational fluid dynamics, all turbulent quantities are one-point correlations. Therefore, the study of one-point turbulent closure schemes is the focus of our turbulence research. However, other research, such as the renormalization group theory, the direct interaction approximation method, and numerical simulations are also pursued to support the development of turbulence modeling.

Shih, Tsan-Hsing↗

An Integrated Model of Models for Global Flood Alerting

A dramatic increase in frequency of minor to major flooding since 2000 has caused significant damage to infrastructure and economic losses across the world. To mitigate and recover from these losses, actions have been taken to build resilient communities and infrastructures. Situational awareness in near real-time is essential to ensure community resilience and enhance response and recovery efforts. Several hydrologic and hydraulic flood models are available at various spatial and temporal resolutions at regional to global scale. Given the global coverage of two operational flood models - GloFAS (Global Flood Awareness System) and GFMS (Global Flood Monitoring System), the first component of this project first focuses on integrating the outputs from these two models to classify flood severity and send alerts based on potential for impacts similar to the USGS PAGER (used for severity alerting and impact analysis for earthquakes). The second component of the project focuses on using flood outputs derived from earth observation data to validate, update and add additional exposure and impact products to flood alerts. The flood impacts and severity information will be disseminated as alerts and maps through the DisasterAWARE platform, operated by the Pacific Disaster Center (PDC), that provides global multi-hazard alerting and Situational Awareness information to the emergency management community and public. In this presentation, the following objectives will be covered: (i) the effective integration of the flood models, (ii) accuracy of the flood model outputs (flood extent and depth) for specific flood events both in the United States and globally in comparison with each other and earth observation data.

Glasscoe, Margaret↗

Algorithmic Detection of Elemental Biosignatures

Machine learning models that classify a sample as indicative or non-indicative of life could play an important role in life-detection missions. Their predictions result from agnostic algorithms and thereby add redundancy to judgements resulting from human expertise. Additionally, their important features can reveal the most informative measurements within the operational constraints of a life-detection mission. The Ladder of Life Detection (Neveu 2018) identifies the need for an understanding of how combinations of multiple biosignatures affect overall confidence. The present work provides a starting point to answer this need, and future work will expand the data types to obtain even more predictive combinations of features. Elemental abundance was chosen as a starting set of features due to its availability in diverse sample types, which are needed to train a generalizable model. A standardized dataset was collected, including 35 non-indicative, e.g., lunar rock, basalt; 19 indicative mixed, e.g., seawater, agricultural soil; 46 indicative non-alive, e.g., coal, chalk; and 10 indicative alive, e.g., biofilm, bacteria. This dataset could be valuable for complementary biosignature research. The samples were standardized to the same limit of detection of a simulated mission scenario. Four classification models were used: k-nearest neighbors (KNN), logistic regression (LR), linear support vector machines (SVM), and Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB). To obtain feature importances, KNN was run on three principal components of the training data and LR and SVM were run with L1 and L2 regularization. The performances and feature importances of the six model variants on 40:60 train to validation ratios were assessed with Monte Carlo simulations. ROC AUC and mean accuracy scores ranged between 82% - 94%, with sensitivity greater than specificity. For indicative of life predictors, all models had C and Ca as strong and Cl as medium; a majority of models had N, K, and P as medium. For non-indicative of life predictors, all models had Si as strong, and a majority of models had Mg, Al, and Ti as medium. Varied elements were Fe (slightly non-indicative), H (slightly indicative), O (widely varied), Na, Mn, and S. These results serve as a proof of concept and suggest important elemental signals beyond merely the CHNOPS of Earth-based life.

Algorithmic↗

Extinction and backscatter measurements of Antarctic PSC's, 1987: Implications for particle and vapor removal

The temperature dependence is examined of optical properties measured in the Antarctic during 1987 at the 70 mb level (near 18 km), a level chosen to correlate the results with in situ measurements made from the NASA-Ames ER-2 aircraft during the 1987 Airborne Antarctic Ozone Experiment (AAOE). The data set consists of extinction measurements by Sam 2 inside the Antarctic polar vortex from May to October 1987; and backscatter measurements by the UV-DIAL (Ultraviolet Differential Absorption Lidar) system aboard the Ames DC-8 aircraft during selected AAOE flights. Observed trends are compared with results from a revised version of Pole and McCormick's model to classify the PSC observations by Type (1 or 2) and infer the temporal behavior of the ambient aerosol and ambient vapor mixing ratios. The sample figures show monthly ensembles of the 70-mb Sam 2 extinction ratio (the ratio of aerosol or PSC extinction to molecule extinction) as a function of NMC temperature at the beginning (June) and (October) of the 1987 Antarctic winter. Both ensembles show two rather distinct clusters of points: one oriented in the near vertical direction which depicts the change with temperature of the ambient aerosol extinction ratio; and a second cluster oriented in the near horizontal direction whose position on the vertical scale marks a change in particle phase (i.e., PSC formation) and whose length (the extinction enhancement related to that of the ambient aerosol) is an indicator of PSC type.

Poole, L. R.↗