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DOE OSTI2025

High resolution characterization of soil dissolved organic matter with FTICR-MS (Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry) from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014 and 2018)

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metagenome-assembled genomes from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014-2021)

The pathways of carbon transport and loss through and from soils—soil organic matter (SOM) depolymerization to dissolved organic carbon and mineralization to carbon dioxide (CO2)—are fundamentally driven by microbial activity, which is strongly regulated by environmental conditions. As part of LBNL (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory) TES (Terrestrial Ecosystem Science) Belowground Biogeochemistry Science Focus Area (SFA), we have established a novel whole-soil long-term warming experiment at the University of California (UC) Blodgett Forest Research Station (Sierra Nevada) in 2014, where we study the role of biogeochemical, microbial and geochemical process interactions in SOM decomposition and stabilization.Here, we present metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) for the bacterial and archaeal community from soil depth profiles collected from 2014 to 2021 from three paired control and warming plots. We collected soil samples across a range of depth profiles (spanning surface to 90 cm deep) from three paired control and warming plots from a temperate mixed forest in Northern California. Each paired plot had been subjected to experimental warming since June 2014 to simulate a predicted climate change scenario for northern California. 101 soil metagenomes were sequenced at JGI (Joint Genome Institute) and UCSF (University of California San Francisco) Center for Advanced Technology and can be found under the JGI (Joint Genome Institute) GOLD (Genomes Online Database) Sequencing project Gs0151586 and NCBI (National Center for Biotechnology Information) Projects PRJNA1225762 and PRJEB39497. Metagenomes were assembled using JGI (Joint Genome Institute) Metagenome Workflow (10.1128/mSystems.00804-20). For each metagenome, the assembled contigs were binned into genomes using 3 binning algorithms (cocacola, metabat, and maxbin) and the resulting bins were consolidated using dastool. The consolidated bins from all metagenomes were pooled, filtered by completeness (>50%) and contamination (<25%), and dereplicated at 99% ANI (average nucleotide identity) using dRep (https://github.com/MrOlm/drep).The dataset includes a zip file of 2321 MAG (Metagenome Assembled Genome) fasta files, the accession numbers for the underlying metagenomes, and a csv file with MAG (Metagenome Assembled Genome) quality metrics and taxonomic classification (GTDB -Genome Taxonomy Database-RS220). This dataset also includes a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata and a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. A sample metadata file (samples.csv) that contains site information has also been included.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

1H-NMR characterization of soil dissolved organic matter from soil samples in control and warming plots in Blodgett Forest, CA (2014 and 2018)

1H-NMR (nucleic magnetic resonance) spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate-driven succession in marine microbiome biodiversity and biogeochemical function

Abstract Seasonal and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warming result in similar ocean changes as predicted with climate change. Climate-driven environmental cycles have strong impacts on microbiome diversity, but impacts on microbiome function are poorly understood. Here we quantify changes in microbial genomic diversity and functioning over 11 years covering seasonal and ENSO cycles at a coastal site in the southern California Current. We observe seasonal oscillations between large-genome lineages during cold, nutrient rich conditions in winter and spring versus small-genome lineages, including Prochlorococcus and Pelagibacter , in summer and fall. Parallel interannual changes separate communities depending on ENSO condition. Biodiversity shifts translate into clear oscillations in microbiome functional potential. Ocean warming induced an ecosystem with less iron but more macronutrient stress genes, depressed organic carbon degradation potential and biomass, and elevated carbon-to-nutrient biomass ratios. The consistent microbial response observed across time-scales points towards large climate-driven changes in marine ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles.

Larkin, Alyse A. (ORCID:0000000344660791)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Future tree mortality is impossible to observe, but a new model reveals why tropical tree traits matter more than climate change variability for predicting hydraulic failure

This article is a Commentary on Robbins et al . (2024), 244 : 2239–2250 .

Mackay, D. Scott↗

DOE OSTI2021

Influence of ontogenetic development, temperature, and pCO2 on otolith calcium carbonate polymorph composition in sturgeons

Changes to calcium carbonate (CaCO 3 ) biomineralization in aquatic organisms is among the many predicted effects of climate change. Because otolith (hearing/orientation structures in fish) CaCO 3 precipitation and polymorph composition are controlled by genetic and environmental factors, climate change may be predicted to affect the phenotypic plasticity of otoliths. We examined precipitation of otolith polymorphs (aragonite, vaterite, calcite) during early life history in two species of sturgeon, Lake Sturgeon, (Acipenser fulvescens) and White Sturgeon (A. transmontanus), using quantitative X-ray microdiffraction. Both species showed similar fluctuations in otolith polymorphs with a significant shift in the proportions of vaterite and aragonite in sagittal otoliths coinciding with the transition to fully exogenous feeding. We also examined the effect of the environment on otolith morphology and polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon larvae reared in varying temperature (16/22 °C) and pCO 2 (1000/2500 µatm) environments for 5 months. Fish raised in elevated temperature had significantly increased otolith size and precipitation of large single calcite crystals. Interestingly, pCO 2 had no statistically significant effect on size or polymorph composition of otoliths despite blood pH exhibiting a mild alkalosis, which is contrary to what has been observed in several studies on marine fishes. These results suggest climate change may influence otolith polymorph composition during early life history in Lake Sturgeon.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying the Effect of Climate Change on Midlatitude Subseasonal Prediction Skill Provided by the Tropics

Abstract Subseasonal timescales (∼2 weeks–2 months) are known for their lack of predictability, however, specific Earth system states known to have a strong influence on these timescales can be harnessed to improve prediction skill (known as “forecasts of opportunity”). As the climate continues warming, it is hypothesized these states may change and consequently, their importance for subseasonal prediction may also be impacted. Here, we examine changes to midlatitude subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics under anthropogenic warming using artificial neural networks to quantify skill. The network is tasked to predict the sign of the 500 hPa geopotential height for historical and future time periods in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 ‐ Large Ensemble across the Northern Hemisphere at a 3 week lead using tropical precipitation. We show prediction skill changes substantially in key midlatitude regions and these changes appear linked to changes in seasonal variability with the largest differences in accuracy occurring during forecasts of opportunity.

Mayer, Kirsten J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Predicting the effects of climate change on the cross-scale epidemiological dynamics of a fungal plant pathogen

The potential for climate change to exacerbate the burden of human infectious diseases is increasingly recognized, but its effects on infectious diseases of plants have received less attention. Understanding the impacts of climate on the epidemiological dynamics of plant pathogens is imperative, as these organisms play central roles in natural ecosystems and also pose a serious threat to agricultural production and food security. We use the fungal ‘flax rust’ pathogen (Melampsora lini) and its subalpine wildflower host Lewis flax (Linum lewisii) to investigate how climate change might affect the dynamics of fungal plant pathogen epidemics using a combination of empirical and modeling approaches. Our results suggest that climate change will initially slow transmission at both the within- and between-host scales. However, moderate resurgences in disease spread are predicted as warming progresses, especially if the rate of greenhouse gas emissions continues to increase at its current pace. These findings represent an important step towards building a holistic understanding of climate effects on plant infectious disease that encompasses demographic, epidemiological, and evolutionary processes. A core result is that neglecting processes at any one scale of plant pathogen transmission may bias projections of climate effects, as climate drivers have variable and cascading impacts on processes underlying transmission that occur at different scales.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

P-model v1.0: an optimality-based light use efficiency model for simulating ecosystem gross primary production

Terrestrial photosynthesis is the basis for vegetation growth and drives the land carbon cycle. Accurately simulating gross primary production (GPP, ecosystem-level apparent photosynthesis) is key for satellite monitoring and Earth system model predictions under climate change. While robust models exist for describing leaf-level photosynthesis, predictions diverge due to uncertain photosynthetic traits and parameters which vary on multiple spatial and temporal scales. Here, we describe and evaluate a GPP (photosynthesis per unit ground area) model, the P-model, that combines the Farquhar–von Caemmerer–Berry model for C 3 photosynthesis with an optimality principle for the carbon assimilation–transpiration trade-off, and predicts a multi-day average light use efficiency (LUE) for any climate and C 3 vegetation type. The model builds on the theory developed in Prentice et al. (2014) and Wang et al. (2017a) and is extended to include low temperature effects on the intrinsic quantum yield and an empirical soil moisture stress factor. The model is forced with site-level data of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) and meteorological data and is evaluated against GPP estimates from a globally distributed network of ecosystem flux measurements. Although the P-model requires relatively few inputs, the R 2 for predicted versus observed GPP based on the full model setup is 0.75 (8 d mean, 126 sites) – similar to comparable satellite-data-driven GPP models but without predefined vegetation-type-specific parameters. The R 2 is reduced to 0.70 when not accounting for the reduction in quantum yield at low temperatures and effects of low soil moisture on LUE. The R 2 for the P-model-predicted LUE is 0.32 (means by site) and 0.48 (means by vegetation type). Applying this model for global-scale simulations yields a total global GPP of 106–122 Pg C yr –1 (mean of 2001–2011), depending on the fAPAR forcing data. The P-model provides a simple but powerful method for predicting – rather than prescribing – light use efficiency and simulating terrestrial photosynthesis across a wide range of conditions. The model is available as an R package (rpmodel).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Spatial Models for Projecting Corn Yields

Climate change is predicted to impact corn yields. Previous studies analyzing these impacts differ in data and modeling approaches and, consequently, corn yield projections. We analyze the impacts of climate change on corn yields using two statistical models with different approaches for dealing with county-level effects. The first model, which is novel to modeling corn yields, uses a computationally efficient spatial basis function approach. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate both parametric and climate model structural uncertainty. We find that the statistical models have similar predictive abilities, but the spatial basis function model is faster and hence potentially a useful tool for crop yield projections. We also explore how different gridded temperature datasets affect the statistical model fit and performance. Compared to the dataset with only weather station data, we find that the dataset composed of satellite and weather station data results in a model with a magnified relationship between temperature and corn yields. For all statistical models, we observe a relationship between temperature and corn yields that is broadly similar to previous studies. We use downscaled and bias-corrected CMIP5 climate model projections to obtain detrended corn yield projections for 2020–2049 and 2069–2098. In both periods, we project a decrease in the mean corn yield production, reinforcing the findings of other studies. However, the magnitude of the decrease and the associated uncertainties we obtain differ from previous studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The predictive power of phylogeny on growth rates in soil bacterial communities

Abstract Predicting ecosystem function is critical to assess and mitigate the impacts of climate change. Quantitative predictions of microbially mediated ecosystem processes are typically uninformed by microbial biodiversity. Yet new tools allow the measurement of taxon-specific traits within natural microbial communities. There is mounting evidence of a phylogenetic signal in these traits, which may support prediction and microbiome management frameworks. We investigated phylogeny-based trait prediction using bacterial growth rates from soil communities in Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems. Here we show that phylogeny predicts growth rates of soil bacteria, explaining an average of 31%, and up to 58%, of the variation within ecosystems. Despite limited overlap in community composition across these ecosystems, shared nodes in the phylogeny enabled ancestral trait reconstruction and cross-ecosystem predictions. Phylogenetic relationships could explain up to 38% (averaging 14%) of the variation in growth rates across the highly disparate ecosystems studied. Our results suggest that shared evolutionary history contributes to similarity in the relative growth rates of related bacteria in the wild, allowing phylogeny-based predictions to explain a substantial amount of the variation in taxon-specific functional traits, within and across ecosystems.

Walkup, Jeth (ORCID:0000000279082963)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data from: "Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine"

This archive contains data used to support conclusions drawn in “Ecophysiological variation in two provenances of Pinus flexilis seedlings across an elevation gradient from forest to alpine”, by Reinhardt et al., 2011. Data were collected over one summer season in plots within the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE), before climate manipulations began. The experiment was located on Niwot Ridge, in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains. This data package includes five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, five Microsoft Excel (.xlsx) files, one .pdf file, and two types of geospatial files: keyhole markup language (.kml), and ESRI shapefiles (.shp). .csv files can be opened using any simple text-editing software (such as Notepad and TextEdit), R, and Microsoft Excel. .xlsx files can only be opened using Microsoft Excel. The .pdf file can be opened using Adobe Acrobat Reader or any other compatible file viewing software. The .kml file can be opened using Google Earth and Google Maps, and shapefiles can be opened using any software compatible with the file type, such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite and QGIS.Data archived contain gas exchange and plant physiology measurements, non-structural carbohydrate data, among others. Geospatial files are also provided for additional locational context. The files and their contents in this data package are summarized under "Data Summary" in the included Data User's Guide. All files (excluding geospatial) are available in both Microsoft Excel and in .csv format, and are indicated in the Data Summary list as well.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Climate change is predicted to cause upward shifts in forest tree distributions, which will require seedling recruitment beyond current forest boundaries. However, predicting the likelihood of successful plant establishment beyond current species’ ranges under changing climate is complicated by the interaction of genetic and environmental controls on seedling establishment. To determine how genetics and climate may interact to affect seedling establishment, we transplanted recently germinated seedlings from high- and low-elevation provenances (HI and LO, respectively) of Pinus flexilis in common gardens arrayed along an elevation and canopy gradient from subalpine forest into the alpine zone and examined differences in physiology and morphology between provenances and among sites. Plant dry mass, projected leaf area and shoot:root ratios were 12–40% greater in LO compared with HI seedlings at each elevation. There were no significant changes in these variables among sites except for decreased dry mass of LO seedlings in the alpine site. Photosynthesis, carbon balance (photosynthesis/respiration) and conductance increased >2× with elevation for both provenances, and were 35–77% greater in LO seedlings compared with HI seedlings. There were no differences in dark-adapted chlorophyll fluorescence (Fv/Fm) among sites or between provenances. Our results suggest that for P. flexilis seedlings, provenances selected for above-ground growth may outperform those selected for stress resistance in the absence of harsh climatic conditions, even well above the species’ range limits in the alpine zone. This indicates that forest genetics may be important to understanding and managing species’ range adjustments due to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal acclimation of stem respiration implies a weaker carbon-climate feedback

The efflux of carbon dioxide (CO2) from woody stems, a proxy for stem respiration, is a critical carbon flux from ecosystems to the atmosphere, which increases with temperature on short timescales. However, plants acclimate their respiratory response to temperature on longer timescales, potentially weakening the carbon-climate feedback. The magnitude of this acclimation is uncertain despite its importance for predicting future climate change. We develop an optimality-based theory dynamically linking stem respiration with leaf water supply to predict its thermal acclimation. We show that the theory accurately reproduces observations of spatial and seasonal change. We estimate the global value for current annual stem CO2 efflux as 27.4 ± 5.9 PgC. By 2100, incorporating thermal acclimation reduces projected stem respiration without considering acclimation by 24 to 46%, thus reducing land ecosystem carbon emissions.

Zhang, Han↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Simulating environmentally-sensitive tree recruitment in vegetation demographic models

Vegetation demographic models (VDMs) endeavor to predict how global forests will respond to climate change. This requires simulating which trees, if any, are able to recruit under changing environmental conditions. We present a new recruitment scheme for VDMs in which functional-type-specific recruitment rates are sensitive to light, soil moisture and the productivity of reproductive trees. We evaluate the scheme by predicting tree recruitment for four tropical tree functional types under varying meteorology and canopy structure at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We compare predictions to those of a current VDM, quantitative observations and ecological expectations. We find that the scheme improves the magnitude and rank order of recruitment rates among functional types and captures recruitment limitations in response to variable understory light, soil moisture and precipitation regimes. Furthermore, our results indicate that adopting this framework will improve VDM capacity to predict functional-type-specific tree recruitment in response to climate change, thereby improving predictions of future forest distribution, composition and function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Amplified Mesoscale and Submesoscale Variability and Increased Concentration of Precipitation under Global Warming over Western North America

Abstract Cold-season precipitation statistics in simulations from the storm-resolving WRF Model at 6-km and 1-h resolution over western North America are analyzed. Pseudo–global warming future simulations for the 2041–80 period, constrained by GCMs under the RCP8.5 scenario, are compared to the 1981–2020 historical simulation. The analysis focuses on the dynamical properties of precipitation time series at subdaily scales and on the morphology of storms. The statistical distribution of precipitation intensities in each pixel of the simulation domain is characterized through nonparametric statistical indicators: frequency of wet hours, mean wet-hour precipitation intensity, and Gini coefficient as a measure of the temporal concentration of the precipitation volume. Additionally, the temporal and spatial Fourier power spectra of precipitation time series and precipitation fields are analyzed. The half-power period (HPP) and half-power wavelength (HPW) are defined as spectral measures of the characteristic scales of precipitation’s temporal and spatial patterns. The results show statistically significant increases in the mean wet-hour precipitation intensity and in the Gini coefficient in 99% of the pixels, indicating that the seasonal precipitation volume becomes more concentrated within a smaller number of hours with higher precipitation intensity. The statistics of change in the frequency of wet hours are more contrasted across the simulation domain. The changes are also reflected in the power spectra, which show the spatial and temporal variability increasing proportionally more with finer spatial and temporal scales and the HPW and HPP decreasing. These projected changes are expected to have consequences, not only in terms of hydrologic impacts but also in terms of the predictability of precipitation patterns. Significance Statement The precipitation characteristics of winter storms over the western United States and southwestern Canada are analyzed in future climate simulations for the 2041–80 period. As compared to present-day climate, the most intense parts of the storms are projected to produce a higher rainfall volume, with increased concentration over smaller areas and shorter time intervals. The propensity of rainfall intensity to vary rapidly over time will be enhanced in the future according to the simulations. These model predictions imply an increased risk of rapid flooding in small basins. They also suggest that predicting several hours ahead the time and location at which a storm will produce maximum rainfall may become more challenging in the future.

Climate change↗

DOE OSTI2024

A mixture of grass–legume cover crop species may ameliorate water stress in a changing climate

Climate change models predict increasing precipitation variability in the mid-latitude regions of Earth, generating a need to reduce the negative impacts of these changes on crop production. Despite considerable research on how cover crops support agriculture in a changing climate, understanding is limited of how climate change influences the growth of cover crops. We investigated the early development of two common cover crop species—crimson clover (Trifolium incarnatum) and rye (Secale cereale)—and hypothesized that growing them in the mixture would ameliorate stress from drought or waterlogging. This hypothesis was tested in a 25-day greenhouse experiment, where the two factors (species number and water stress) were fully crossed in randomized blocks, and plant responses were quantified through survival, growth rate, biomass production and root morphology. Water stress negatively influenced the early growth of these two species in contrasting ways: crimson clover was susceptible to drought while rye performed poorly under waterlogging. Per-plant biomass in rye was always greater in mixture than in monoculture, while per-plant biomass of crimson clover was greater in mixture under drought. Both species grew longer roots in mixture than in monoculture under drought, and total biomass of mixtures did not differ significantly from the more-productive monoculture (rye) in any water condition. In the face of increasingly variable precipitation, growing crimson clover and rye together has potential to ameliorate water stress, a possibility that should be further investigated in field experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality

To mitigate climate warming, many countries have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in the mid-21 st century. Here, we assess the global impacts of changing greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) following a carbon neutrality pathway on climate and extreme weather events individually using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The results suggest that the future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weathers toward carbon neutrality and aerosol impacts far outweigh those of GHGs and tropospheric O 3 . It reverses the knowledge that the changing GHGs dominate the future climate changes as predicted in the middle of the road pathway. Therefore, substantial reductions in GHGs and tropospheric O 3 are necessary to reach the 1.5 °C warming target and mitigate the harmful effects of concomitant aerosol reductions on climate and extreme weather events under carbon neutrality in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗