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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2

NPP Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Predicted Sensor Performance Calibration and Preliminary Data Product Performance

Continuation of the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) Climate Data Record (CDR) has been identified as critical in the 2007 NRC Decadal Survey, the Global Climate Observing System WCRP report, and in an assessment titled Impacts of NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on Joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals. In response, NASA, NOAA and NPOESS agreed in early 2008 to fly the final existing CERES Flight Model (FM-5) on the NPP spacecraft for launch in 2010. Future opportunities for ERB CDR continuity consist of procuring an additional CERES Sensor with modest performance upgrades for flight on the NPOESS C1 spacecraft in 2013, followed by a new CERES follow-on sensor for flight in 2018 on the NPOESS C3 spacecraft. While science goals remain unchanged for the long-term ERB Climate Data Record, it is now understood that the task of achieving these goals is more difficult for two reasons. The first is an increased understanding of the dynamics of the Earth/atmosphere system which demonstrates that rigorous separation of natural variability from anthropogenic change on decadal time scales requires higher accuracy and stability than originally envisioned. Secondly, future implementation scenarios involve less redundancy in flight hardware (1 vs. 2 orbits and operational sensors) resulting in higher risk of loss of continuity and reduced number of independent observations to characterize performance of individual sensors. Although EOS CERES CDR's realize a factor of 2 to 4 improvement in accuracy and stability over previous ERBE CDR's, future sensors will require an additional factor of 2 improvement to answer rigorously the science questions moving forward. Modest investments, defined through the CERES Science Team s 30-year operational history of the EOS CERES sensors, in onboard calibration hardware and pre-flight calibration and test program will ensure meeting these goals while reducing costs in re-processing scientific datasets. The CERES FM-5 pre-flight radiometric characterization program benefited from the 30-year operational experience of the CERES EOS sensors, as well as a stronger emphasis of radiometric characterization in the Statement of Work with the sensor provider. Improvements to the pre-flight program included increased spectral, spatial, and temporal sampling under vacuum conditions as well as additional tests to characterize the primary and transfer standards in the calibration facility. Future work will include collaboration with NIST to further enhance the understanding of the radiometric performance of this equipment prior to flight. The current effort summarizes these improvements to the CERES FM-5 pre-flight sensor characterization program, as well as modifications to inflight calibration procedures and operational tasking. In addition, an estimate of the impacts to the system level accuracy and traceability is presented.

Priestly, Kory↗

Strategizing emission cuts in China to mitigate short-term warming from clean air policies

Aerosol-cloud interactions remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in estimates of anthropogenic climate forcing. Reducing aerosols to achieve air quality improvement and climate goals can cause unintended warming due to the weakening of aerosol cooling. Here we investigate the climate impacts of spatially optimized sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) emission reduction under a carbon-neutral pathway in China. We find that targeting reduction in highly polluted regions in China significantly suppresses the rise in effective radiative forcing due to aerosol-cloud interactions (ERF aci ) during 2020–2060. Owing to the nonlinear aerosol-cloud interaction, the optimized emission reduction strategy limits the regional average increase in ERF aci of more than 0.89 W m −2 to less than 0.13 W m −2 in the short-term future during 2020–2040 and weakens the ERF aci increase by two-thirds in 2060 over China. These findings demonstrate the critical role of targeted emission control in mitigating short-term climate risks while pursuing air quality goals.

Zhu, Yitong [Nanjing Univ. of Information Science ↗

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗

Model-Based Systems Analysis and Engineering for the Sustainable Flight National Partnership

NASA is committed to supporting the U.S. climate goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from the aviation sector by 2050, as outlined in the U.S. 2021 Aviation Climate Action Plan. Through the Sustainable Flight National Partnership (SFNP), NASA is leading federal agencies and industry partners to accelerate the development of technologies capable of supporting the nation's aviation sustainability goals for products targeting an entry-into-service of 2035. To support the SFNP, NASA is developing a Model-Based Systems Analysis & Engineering (MBSA&E) framework which will serve to digitally integrate the work across numerous projects and demonstrations to the systems-level for relevant vision vehicle concepts. This presentation summarizes the MBSA&E motivation, development efforts, and future work.

Model Based Engineering↗

Assessing Climate Change-Induced Variability in Generation Potential and Droughts of Renewable Energy Systems in India

Solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy systems are crucial for decarbonizing the electricity sector and achieving climate goals. However, these systems are weather-dependent, and ignoring the potential changes in their generation levels due to climate change could compromise achieving climate targets and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the impact of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar PV systems in India for three future periods, 2030 (2021-2040), 2050 (2041-2060), and 2070 (2061-2080) compared to the baseline year 2000 (1991-2010), under three emission scenarios: SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585. Solar PV generation levels consistently decline (up to 10 %) across all regions and scenarios. Wind energy shows more pronounced variability (-20 % to 30 %). The South and Southeastern regions of India show improvements in wind potential across all scenarios and time periods. This study also investigated the projected changes in the generation droughts of both energy systems. For solar PV, drought days increase across most regions (exceeding 500 days under SSP370 across the 20-year period). In contrast, wind energy sees a reduction in drought days, especially in parts of South and Southeast India (declines exceeding 50 days across different scenarios). For both energy systems, the patterns of generation drought and generation potential are similar, and indicate that Western and Northern India may be less favorable for the future expansion of solar PV and wind energy, respectively. These results highlight the need to account for the potential impacts in future capacity planning.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Decarbonizing Hydrogen Production: Assessing A Net-Negative Pathway

Hydrogen is gaining prominence as a key factor in the world's transition to a cleaner energy future. The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s Global Hydrogen Review 2023 reports that the number of low-emission hydrogen production projects is increasing rapidly. The potential for growth in new applications such as heavy industry, transportation, and power generation is significant. The IEA urges more decisive action to spur demand for low-emission hydrogen to achieve climate goals. While hydrogen is produced through various industrial methods, each with its own advantages and disadvantages, low-carbon hydrogen is critical for mitigating climate change and is incentivized by the Clean Hydrogen Production Tax Credit (45V). To this end, we have evaluated a commercial technology that can produce low- or negative-carbon hydrogen via ethanol catalytic oxidative reforming. This study assessed life cycle greenhouse gas emissions (carbon intensity or CI) associated with the hydrogen production technology. A total of 24 scenarios were evaluated, encompassing (a) Gen1 versus Gen2 ethanol inputs, (b) carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) of upstream fermentation CO2, and (c) oxygen sourcing via air separation unit (ASU) versus purchased or on-site production of oxygen as a byproduct of hydrogen electrolysis with a proton exchange membrane (PEM). Key findings include that the base case CI for hydrogen production using Gen2 ethanol from corn stover is lower than Gen1 dry mill corn ethanol. The study also points out that the CI for hydrogen production using PEM-O2 is lower than that using ASU-O2, whether the PEM-O2 is produced on-site or off-site (importing). When sourcing oxygen from on-site PEM-O2, the Gen1 and Gen2 ethanol-derived hydrogen exhibit favorable net-negative CI values for all evaluated scenarios, especially if the upstream ethanol CCS is included. As a reference, the 45V regulatory threshold for generating clean hydrogen tax credits is a CI below 0.45 kg CO2e/kg hydrogen.

BIOMASS FUELS,HYDROGEN↗

What drives embodied carbon policy? A global perspective on adoption

Abstract Embodied carbon refers to the greenhouse gas emission associated with the lifecycle of buildings. Embodied carbon policies are critical for addressing the environmental impact of construction materials and advancing climate goals. Despite their importance, the adoption of embodied carbon policies has been limited globally, influenced by economic, environmental, institutional, and trade factors. This study employs structural equation modeling to analyze 37 countries, testing ten hypotheses across four categorical factors. The base model reveals the significant influence of environmental vulnerability and institutional frameworks on policy adoption, while robustness models confirm the critical role of trade dependencies and economic competitiveness in shaping national embodied carbon strategies. Findings underscore that countries with high climate vulnerability and strong institutional support are more likely to adopt embodied carbon policies. Conversely, trade-reliant nations face challenges balancing competitiveness and sustainability. Policy implications suggest the need for international collaboration to align trade policies with carbon reduction goals, targeted support for vulnerable nations, and the integration of embodied carbon considerations into existing climate frameworks. These results offer a roadmap for policymakers to design more effective and equitable embodied carbon policies, fostering global progress toward sustainable construction and decarbonization.

Hu, Ming (ORCID:0000000325831161)↗

The Net Zero World Initiative

The U.S. is committed to working with countries all over the globe to accelerate clean climate goals from ambition to action, and the Net Zero World Initiative is the latest example of our dedication. The Net Zero World Initiative is uniquely positioned to achieve rapid global energy decarbonization. It will partner with countries to help them implement climate ambition pledges and accelerate global transitions to net zero, resilient, and inclusive energy systems. The Net Zero World Initiative Will Harness Unique USG and Lab Assets in Partnership with Philanthropies. Scale-up and goals listed.

accelerate↗

Circular economy as a climate strategy: current knowledge and calls-to-action

Existing pledges and NDC targets, even if fully achieved, are still not sufficient to meet the Paris climate goals. Considerable additional strategies and actions are urgently needed to close the emission gap. Built environment, transport, food system, and clean energy are the most relevant sectors for circular economy strategies to deliver climate change mitigation benefits. Circular economy strategies can complement decarbonization measures to further reduce GHG emissions from material production, help lower emissions from operational energy use in the built environment and transport, and cut emissions from waste management. The largest potential GHG emissions reductions through circularity come from consumption side measures and product design measures. Circular economy strategies can support a sustainable clean energy transition, by helping relieve the mineral supply pressure, increasing supply chain resilience, preventing new waste challenges, accelerating the adoption of clean energy technologies, as well as maximizing their climate benefits. Furthermore, circular economy strategies can help enhance adaptation to climate change. Nine calls-to-action are put forward, for government, business, and civil society leaders to accelerate circular economy strategies with the highest potential for climate benefits, and for the research community to close critical knowledge gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

The Global Climate Action Partnership

The Global Climate Action Partnership (GCAP; formerly the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership) is a worldwide network that accelerates ambitious climate goals and advances implementation in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Our strategic approach emphasizes country-driven implementation actions to achieve resilient, just, and inclusive low-emission and net-zero economies. As an incubator for scalable knowledge and solutions, GCAP is leading the way to equitable, climate-resilient, low-emission development.

African Climate Action Partnership↗

Exploring acute weather resilience: Meeting resilience and renewable goals

We report the United States is affected by an average of almost seven severe weather events a year, often resulting in billions of dollars in physical and economic damages, a subset of which are related to grid outages. There is a need for power and energy system stakeholders to better understand and implement the strategies that help reduce net-economic and societal consequences associated with grid outages by improving the resilience of their systems. In addition, there are incentives to reduce emissions and meet climate goals, several pathways of which include resilient technologies. Including resilience constraints and metrics in energy system planning models may help inform the design of more resilient systems that are also more renewable and sustainable. This paper reviews qualitative definitions of resilience, quantitative approaches to resilience, recent examples of the inclusion of resilience in energy system models with respect to acute climatological threats, and the gaps in fully articulating resilience in current modeling tools. We then outline steps to effectively improve resilience considerations against such threats into energy sector modeling tools. Based on the findings, the authors propose a novel framework for energy system resilience assessment and future areas of research to bridge the current modeling gaps.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Global roll-out of comprehensive policy measures may aid in bridging emissions gap

Closing the emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries. They need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant, short-term measures informed by interactions with country experts. These good practice policies are rolled out globally between now and 2030 and combined with carbon pricing thereafter. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models. We show that the Bridge scenario closes two-thirds of the emissions gap between NDC and 2°C scenarios by 2030 and enables a pathway in line with the 2 °C goal when combined with the necessary long-term changes, i.e. more comprehensive pricing measures after 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 52%-88% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Clean Air as a Bonus for Achieving Energy-Related State Goals: A Review of Policies and Programs in 15 States

This report explores connections between six common areas for state action on energy-related issues — resilience, economic development, energy affordability, electrifying transportation, grid modernization, and using local resources — and reducing air emissions. Although clean air often is not a driver for such state actions, they nonetheless reduce a variety of emissions, including particulates, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide. The study spans 15 geographically diverse states: Arizona, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas and Utah. While these states have not adopted mandatory climate goals, they conduct a wide range of energy-related activities that reduce greenhouse gas emissions and other air pollutants as a side benefit.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Power Sector Transformation Pathways: Exploring Objectives, Factors, and Technology Innovations to Inform Power Sector Pathway Decisions

The power and heating sectors are responsible for around 30% of global CO2 emissions and this share is likely to grow as countries move towards electrification of the transportation and building sectors. Therefore, enabling forward-thinking, long term strategies in the power sector is a crucial area for international collaboration and support. The rapid transition of power systems toward modern, low-carbon pathways and technologies will be necessary to meet key climate goals while also enabling other critical objectives such as economic development, energy access, and energy system resiliency, among others. Many developed and developing countries are well-poised to champion power sector transformation (PST), however, further support is needed to identify pathways and implement critical near and long-term actions. To address this need, the Low Emission Development Strategies Global Partnership (LEDS GP) together with an expert team including Agora Energiewende, Energy Innovation, European Climate Foundation, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research , Prayas Energy Group and LEDS Latin America and Caribbean Platform, developed a framework identifying four key pathways that can be integrated and combined to support low-carbon PST. These four pathways are: (1) Distributed Energy Resource Revolution, (2) Bulk Power Transformation, (3) Transmission and Distribution Interactivity, and (4) Distributed Transactional Future. To support exploration of pathways, this study examines PST objectives and factors that may lead countries or jurisdictions to place a greater relative emphasis on certain pathways as well as a framework and complementary tool for considering the emphasis in a hands on manner. The report provides case studies on application of the approach to bring life to the topic. The case studies include Haiti, Kenya, Mexico, Southeast Asia, and the European Union, among others. The report also presents actions to-be-taken in the near-, medium- and long-term to support the realization of pathways and long-term transformation of the power sector. The report, together with a complementary spreadsheet tool developed under the effort, can be used to enable stakeholder engagement and visioning for the power sector over the long-term, taking into account key factors and potential innovations. It can also be used to understand and inform relevant analysis tools and models based on which pathways are emphasized, and to identify key actions in the near- and medium-term to avoid lock-in of carbon-intensive technologies.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

An overview of the Energy Modeling Forum 33rd study: Assessing large-scale global bioenergy deployment for managing climate change

Previous studies have projected a significant role for bioenergy in decarbonizing the global economy and helping realize international climate goals such as limiting global average warming to 2°C or 1.5°C. However, with significant variability in bioenergy results and significant concerns about potential environmental and social implications, greater transparency and dedicated assessment of the underlying modeling and results and more detailed understanding of the potential role of bioenergy are needed. Stanford University’s Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) initiated a 33rd study (EMF-33) to explore the viability of large-scale bioenergy as part of a comprehensive climate management strategy. This special issue presents the papers of the EMF-33 study—a multi-year inter-model comparison project designed to understand and assess global, long-run, biomass supply and bioenergy deployment potentials and related uncertainties. Using a novel scenario design with independent biomass supply and bioenergy demand protocols, EMF-33 separately elucidates and explores the modeling of biomass feedstock supplies and bioenergy technologies and their deployment—revealing, comparing, and assessing the modeling that is suggesting that bioenergy could be a key climate containment strategy. This introduction provides an overview of the EMF-33 study design and the overview, thematic, and individual modeling team papers and types of insights that make up this special issue. By providing enhanced transparency and new detailed insights, we hope to inform policy dialogue about the potential role of bioenergy and facilitate new research.

Rose, Steven K.↗

Roads to Removal: Options for Carbon Dioxide Removal in the United States

Our analysis shows it is feasible for the United States to remove a staggering amount of CO 2 from the air—this will be critical to becoming carbon neutral by 2050. Our comprehensive, first-of-its-kind, county-resolution analysis indicates that our country can accomplish this goal by relying on demonstrated technology, natural resources, and workforces we already have. Additionally, ongoing technology development can lower costs, shorten timelines, and deliver new solutions. Our analysis evaluated how we can use forests, cropland soils, and waste biomass, along with purpose-built machines, to get us to net-zero. Further, we considered community impacts and identified locations where certain solutions could be uniquely beneficial or potentially counterproductive. Our findings enable decisionmakers to weigh both opportunities and constraints and to decide what roads to use to meet our national climate goal for net-zero CO 2 emissions.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Stranded asset implications of the Paris Agreement in Latin America and the Caribbean

Achieving the Paris Agreement's near-term goals (Nationally Determined Contributions, NDCs) and long-term temperature targets could result in pre-mature retirement, or stranding, of carbon-intensive assets before the end of their useful lifetime. We use an integrated assessment model to quantify the implications of the Paris Agreement for stranded assets in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), a developing region with the least carbon-intensive power sector in the world. We find that meeting the Paris goals results in stranding of 37-90 billion and investment of 1.9-2.6 trillion worth of power sector capital (2021-2050) across a range of future scenarios. Strengthening the NDCs could reduce stranding costs by 27-40%. Additionally, while politically shielding power plants from pre-mature retirement or increasing the role of other sectors (e.g. land-use) could also reduce power sector stranding, such actions could make mitigation more expensive and negatively impact society. For example, we find that avoiding stranded assets in the power sector increases food prices 13%, suggesting implications for food security in LAC. Our analysis demonstrates that climate goals are relevant for investment decisions even in developing countries with low emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated assessment modeling of a zero-emissions global transportation sector

Currently responsible for over one fifth of carbon emissions worldwide, the transportation sector will need to undergo a substantial technological transition to ensure compatibility with global climate goals. Few studies have modeled strategies to achieve zero emissions across all transportation modes, including aviation and shipping, alongside an integrated analysis of feedbacks on other sectors and environmental systems. Here, we use a global integrated assessment model to evaluate deep decarbonization scenarios for the transportation sector consistent with maintaining end-of-century warming below 1.5 °C, considering varied timelines for fossil fuel phase-out and implementation of advanced alternative technologies. We highlight the leading low carbon technologies for each transportation mode, finding that electrification contributes most to decarbonization across the sector. Biofuels and hydrogen are particularly important for aviation and shipping. Our most ambitious scenario eliminates transportation emissions by mid-century, contributing substantially to achieving climate targets but requiring rapid technological shifts with integrated impacts on fuel demands and availability and upstream energy transitions.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗