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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Opinion: The importance of historical and paleoclimate aerosol radiative effects

Abstract. Estimating past aerosol radiative effects and their uncertainties is an important topic in climate science. Aerosol radiative effects propagate into large uncertainties in estimates of how present and future climate evolves with changing greenhouse gas emissions. A deeper understanding of how aerosols affected the atmospheric energy budget under past climates is hindered in part by a lack of relevant paleo-observations and in part because less attention has been paid to the problem. Because of the lack of information we do not seek here to determine the change in the radiative forcing due to aerosol changes but rather to estimate the uncertainties in those changes. Here we argue that current uncertainties from emission uncertainties (90 % confidence interval range spanning 2.8 W m−2) are just as large as model spread uncertainties (2.8 W m−2) in calculating preindustrial to present-day aerosol radiative effects. There are no estimates of radiative forcing for important aerosols such as wildfire and dust aerosols in most paleoclimate time periods. However, qualitative analysis of paleoclimate proxies suggests that changes in aerosols between different past climates are similar in magnitude to changes in aerosols between the preindustrial and present day; plus, there is the added uncertainty from the variability in aerosols and fires in the preindustrial. From the limited literature we crudely estimate a paleoclimate aerosol uncertainty for the Last Glacial Maximum relative to preindustrial of 4.8 W m−2, and we estimate the uncertainty in the aerosol feedback in the natural Earth system over the paleoclimate (Last Glacial Maximum to preindustrial) to be about 3.2 W m−2 K−1. In order to more accurately assess the uncertainty in historical aerosol radiative effects, we propose a new model intercomparison project, which would include multiple plausible emission scenarios tested across a range of state-of-the-art climate models over the historical period. These emission scenarios would then be compared to the available independent aerosol observations to constrain which are most probable. In addition, future efforts should work to characterize and constrain paleo-aerosol forcings and uncertainties. Careful propagation of aerosol uncertainties in the literature is required to ensure an accurate quantification of uncertainties in projections of future climate changes.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging the signature of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO 2 for model benchmarking

Spatial and temporal variations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) reflect large-scale net carbon exchange between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Soil heterotrophic respiration (HR) is one of the component fluxes that drive this net exchange, but, given observational limitations, it is difficult to quantify this flux or to evaluate global-scale model simulations thereof. Here, we show that atmospheric CO 2 can provide a useful constraint on large-scale patterns of soil heterotrophic respiration. We analyze three soil model configurations (CASA-CNP, MIMICS, and CORPSE) that simulate HR fluxes within a biogeochemical test bed that provides each model with identical net primary productivity (NPP) and climate forcings. We subsequently quantify the effects of variation in simulated terrestrial carbon fluxes (NPP and HR from the three soil test-bed models) on atmospheric CO 2 distributions using a three-dimensional atmospheric tracer transport model. Our results show that atmospheric CO 2 observations can be used to identify deficiencies in model simulations of the seasonal cycle and interannual variability in HR relative to NPP. In particular, the two models that explicitly simulated microbial processes (MIMICS and CORPSE) were more variable than observations at interannual timescales and showed a stronger-than-observed temperature sensitivity. Our results prompt future research directions to use atmospheric CO 2 , in combination with additional constraints on terrestrial productivity or soil carbon stocks, for evaluating HR fluxes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

ORBIT: Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability

Earth system predictability is challenged by the complexity of environmental dynamics and the multitude of variables involved. Current AI foundation models, although advanced by leveraging large and heterogeneous data, are often constrained by their size and data integration, limiting their effectiveness in addressing the full range of Earth system prediction challenges. To overcome these limitations, we introduce the Oak Ridge Base Foundation Model for Earth System Predictability (ORBIT), an advanced vision transformer model that scales up to 113 billion parameters using a novel hybrid tensor-data orthogonal parallelism technique. As the largest model of its kind, ORBIT surpasses the current climate AI foundation model size by a thousandfold. Performance scaling tests conducted on the Frontier supercomputer have demonstrated that ORBIT achieves 684 petaFLOPS to 1.6 exaFLOPS sustained throughput, with scaling efficiency maintained at 41% to 85% across 49,152 AMD GPUs. These breakthroughs establish new advances in AI-driven climate modeling and demonstrate promise to significantly improve the Earth system predictability.

Wang, Xiao↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coastal-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) Science Plan

Understanding the mechanisms governing the urban atmospheric environment is critical for informing urban populations regarding the impacts of climate change and associated mitigation and adaptation measures. Earth system (climate and weather) models have not yet been adapted to provide accurate predictions of climate and weather variability within cities, nor do they provide well-tested representations of the impacts of urban systems on the atmospheric environment. These limitations are largely due to limited field data available for testing and development of these models. We will deploy the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s first Mobile Facility (AMF1) to the mid-Atlantic region surrounding the city of Baltimore for the Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE). This deployment will create a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network including Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments – rural, urban, and bay. CoURAGE investigators will study the interactions among the Earth’s surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, aerosols and atmospheric composition, clouds, radiation, and precipitation at each site, and examine how the spatial gradients across the region interact to create the climate conditions in Baltimore. This study will determine the degree to which Baltimore’s atmospheric environment depends on interactive feedbacks in the atmospheric system and the degree to which conditions in Baltimore depend on the surrounding environment. Some topics of interest include how urban land management exacerbates heat waves, the impact of regional mesoscale winds (nocturnal jet, bay breeze) on urban air pollution and cloud cover, and the impact of the urban heat island and aerosol production on heavy precipitation events. Understanding this integrated coast-urban-rural system quantitatively and with good accuracy and precision is critical to informing climate adaptation and mitigation efforts in the city of Baltimore. The understanding gained should be applicable to many similar coastal, mid-latitude urban centers. Another important objective of CoURAGE is to improve the representation of the climate of coastal cities in Earth systems models (ESMs). CoURAGE investigators will use the observations to test current ESMs, identify weaknesses and work towards improved simulations of this complex environment. The ARM core facility will be deployed in the city of Baltimore, complementing the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE urban integrated field laboratory (UIFL). Ancillary sites will be deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore, and to the southern end of Kent Island within Chesapeake Bay. The fourth node will be a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland by Howard University and the Maryland Department of the Environment. Measurements will be conducted for one year, starting in December of 2024. There will be two intensive operational periods (IOPs), one in summer and one in winter, when the ancillary sites will be enhanced with additional balloon launches, tethered balloon system (TBS) operation, and added atmospheric composition measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Multi-Model Framework for Assessing Long- and Short-Term Climate Influences on the Electric Grid

Climate change influences many aspects of the electric grid, but prior work and industry practices often ignore the potential effects of changing climate, or they only consider a single effect or individual effects in isolation. Challenges vary with each grid and include adapting to long-term trends such as changing temperature and precipitation or shorter-term events such as drought or storms that could increase in frequency or intensity. Here we present a multi-model framework designed to analyze the effects of long and short-term climate impacts in combination. This framework couples capacity expansion and production cost models with hydrologic models and future climate scenario data to analyze alternative climate and energy futures at high spatial, temporal, and process resolutions. Furthermore, we constructed and evaluated the results of a suite of simulated scenarios exploring climate impacts on capacity investment and stress-tested the resulting future infrastructures using hourly dispatch modeling under alternative drought and load conditions. We demonstrate the approach through a case study of the U.S. Western Interconnection, where climate impacts depend on interactions between temperature-induced load, water availability for hydropower, technology competitiveness, and demand flexibility. Changes in 2038 generating capacity range from -8.5-16.6 GW, and changes in 2038 transmission capacity range from -1-2 GW. Capacity increases are driven by higher load from higher temperatures, while capacity reductions can be achieved in scenarios with higher future hydropower availability and increased demand flexibility. Scenarios requiring additional capacity cost an additional $\$5$-$\$17$ billion (discounted) from 2018 to 2038; however, scenarios with capacity reductions cost $\$1$-$\$18$ billion less. Stress tests on four 2038 infrastructures demonstrated that the identified systems were able to serve at least 99.999% of load and 99.96% of reserves. However, drought and unexpected high-load conditions can result in reduced capacity to respond to contingency events we did not model. Although these results are system and scenario specific, they highlight the importance of considering multiple climate change impacts simultaneously in long-term planning efforts and demonstrate a multi-model, multiscale approach that can be flexibly applied to any system and set of climate change concerns.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Benchmark estimate of the effect of anthropogenic emissions on the ocean surface

Abstract Investigations into the role of anthropogenic emissions in the occurrence of extreme weather often use a method that compares simulations of atmospheric climate models run under a factual scenario of historical boundary conditions observed during the period of the event against simulations run under a counterfactual scenario of what those boundary conditions might naturally have been over that same period in the absence of anthropogenic emissions. A particular requirement for this experiment design is an accurate estimation of ocean surface boundary conditions for use by the counterfactual natural simulations. Here we use output from the CMIP5 multi‐climate‐model archive to develop a robust estimate of sea surface temperatures and sea ice conditions for use in counterfactual natural simulations, intended as a benchmark estimate to facilitate comparison across climate models and across studies. This development includes tests to ensure that the final estimate is stable from year‐to‐year and stable against other perturbations to the methodology, as well as consideration of the strengths and weaknesses in comparison to other available attributable warming estimates. While this estimate is tailored specifically for the International CLIVAR C20C+ Detection and Attribution Project, it can be used by related projects as well.

Stone, Dáithí A.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Skywalker v.2

SAND2022-2193 O Skywalker is a software library that facilitates the creation of test drivers for atmospheric parameterizations used in climate models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Overfelt, James↗
DOE OSTI2026

Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH)

This report documents the Transformative Efficiency and Automation in Modular Homes (TEAMH) project, which evaluates the integration of advanced building envelope technologies and automation-assisted modular construction to improve residential energy performance and construction efficiency. The study investigates high-performance insulation systems, including vacuum insulation panels (VIPs), combined with light gauge steel (LGS) modular construction and factory automation. Laboratory testing, whole-building energy modeling across multiple climate zones, and factory demonstrations were conducted to assess thermal performance, energy savings, and production efficiency. Results indicate that upgraded envelope assemblies can achieve up to ~50% heating and ~34% cooling energy savings relative to IECC 2018 code-compliant homes, while automation-assisted construction can reduce wall assembly time by 24%–46% compared to conventional wood framing. The findings demonstrate the potential for scalable, high-performance modular homes that deliver significant energy savings with competitive projected costs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska

Seasonal variations in high-latitude terrestrial carbon (C) fluxes are predominantly driven by air temperature and radiation. At present, high-latitude net C uptake is largest during the summer. Recent observations and modeling studies have demonstrated that ongoing and projected climate change will increase plant productivity, microbial respiration, and growing season lengths at high-latitudes, but impacts on high-latitude C cycle seasonality (and potential feedbacks to the climate system) remain uncertain. Here we use ecosys, a well-tested and process-rich mechanistic ecosystem model that we evaluate further in this study, to explore how climate warming under an RCP8.5 scenario will shift C cycle seasonality in Alaska throughout the 21st century. The model successfully reproduced recently reported large high-latitude C losses during the fall and winter and yet still predicts a high-latitude C sink, pointing to a resolution of the current conflict between process-model and observation-based estimates of high-latitude C balance. We find that warming will result in surprisingly large changes in net ecosystem exchange (NEE; defined as negative for uptake) seasonality, with spring net C uptake overtaking summer net C uptake by year 2100. This shift is driven by a factor of 3 relaxation of spring temperature limitation to plant productivity that results in earlier C uptake and a corresponding increase in magnitude of spring NEE from –19 to –144 gC m –2 season –1 by the end of the century. Although a similar relaxation of temperature limitation will occur in the fall, radiation limitation during those months will limit increases in C fixation. Additionally, warmer soil temperatures and increased carbon inputs from plants lead to combined fall and winter C losses (163 gC m –2 ) that are larger than summer net uptake (123 gC m –2 season –1 ) by year 2100. However, this increase in microbial activity leads to more rapid N cycling and increased plant N uptake during the fall and winter months that supports large increases in spring NPP. Due to the large increases in spring net C uptake, the high-latitude atmospheric C sink is projected to sustain throughout this century. Our analysis disentangles the effects of key environmental drivers of high-latitude seasonal C balances as climate changes over the 21st century.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changes in high-latitude surface energy balance driven by snowpack and vegetation dynamics under warmer climate

With rapid climate warming, expected changes in snowpack and vegetation will alter the seasonal surface albedo of high-latitude ecosystems. The extent to which these albedo changes may affect surface energy balances and thus soil temperatures is uncertain, but represents a potentially important component of ecosystem feedbacks to climate change. Here, we apply a well-tested process-rich ecosystem model, ecosys , to examine changes in seasonal surface albedo and soil temperature driven by climate-induced snowpack and vegetation changes across Alaska under a warmer twenty-first century climate. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change scenario, the modeled changes in surface albedo exhibited large seasonal and spatial variations. We found spring albedo decreases driven by increases in snow-free periods (>20 d) and an extended growing season length that resulted in greater gains in leaf area index (LAI) in most parts of Alaska. In contrast, we modeled increases in summer and winter albedo (despite modeled increases in LAI) across much of the boreal forest due to an increased proportion of aspen, which has a higher leaf albedo than the currently dominant black spruce. Modeled latent heat fluxes generally increase across the twenty-first century, particularly during the spring and summer. Overall, climate warming and changes in surface energy fluxes resulted in a 3.5 ± 0.50 °C increase in spatial- and annual-averaged top 10 cm surface soil temperatures across Alaskan ecosystems by the year 2100, with larger increases in tundra than boreal forest regions. We conclude that under warmer climates, seasonal variations in albedo and surface energy fluxes are particularly pronounced during the spring and summer, driven by changes in snowpack and vegetation dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven modeling to enhance municipal water demand estimates in response to dynamic climate conditions

Altered precipitation and temperature patterns from a changing climate will affect supply, demand, and overall municipal water system operations throughout the arid western U.S. While supply forecasts leverage hydrological models to connect climate influences with surface water availability, demand forecasts typically estimate water use independent of climate and other externalities. Stemming from an increased focus on seasonal water demand management, we use the Salt Lake City, Utah municipal water system as a test bed to assess model accuracy versus complexity trade-offs between simple climate-independent econometric-based models and complex climate-sensitive data-driven models to average to extreme wet and dry climate conditions—representative of a new climate normal. Here, the climate-independent model displayed low performance during extreme dry conditions with predictions exceeding 90% and 40% of the observed monthly and seasonal volumetric demands, respectively, which we attribute to insufficient model complexity. The climate-sensitive models displayed greater accuracy in all conditions, with an ordinary least squares model demonstrating a measurable reduction in prediction bias (3.4% vs. -27.3%) and RMSE (74.0 lpcd vs. 294 lpcd) compared to the climate-independent model. The climate-sensitive workflow increased model accuracy and characterized climate-demand interactions, demonstrating a novel tool to enhance water system management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ground Heat Flux Reconstruction Using Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification Machinery and Surrogate Modeling

Ground heat flux (G 0 ) is a key component of the land-surface energy balance of high-latitude regions. Despite its crucial role in controlling permafrost degradation due to global warming, G 0 is sparsely measured and not well represented in the outputs of global scale model simulation. In this study, an analytical heat transfer model is tested to reconstruct G 0 across seasons using soil temperature series from field measurements, Global Climate Model, and climate reanalysis outputs. The probability density functions of ground heat flux and of model parameters are inferred using available G 0 data (measured or modeled) for snow-free period as a reference. When observed G 0 is not available, a numerical model is applied using estimates of surface heat flux (dependent on parameters) as the top boundary condition. These estimates (and thus the corresponding parameters) are verified by comparing the distributions of simulated and measured soil temperature at several depths. Aided by state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification methods, the developed G 0 reconstruction approach provides novel means for assessing the probabilistic structure of the ground heat flux for regional permafrost change studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Model Inputs, Outputs, and Scripts associated with: “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin”

This data package is associated with the publication “Spatial microbial respiration variations in the hyporheic zones within the Columbia River Basin” published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences (Son et al. 2022) available at doi: 10.1029/2021JG006654. This data package includes the key model inputs/outputs of the river corridor model for the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and the model source codes, which were used in the manuscript. The model is a carbon-nitrogen-coupled river corridor model (RCM), and the model is used to quantify hyporheic zone (HZ) aerobic and anaerobic respiration at the NHDPLUS stream reach scales. The RCM used in this study combines empirical substrate models derived from observations and three microbially driven reactions to compute respiration of the HZ for each National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) reach within the CRB. The reactions in HZs of each NHD reach include anaerobic respiration and two-step anaerobic respiration via denitrification. Our HZ respiration estimates are limited to the lotic (or flowing) stream/river systems, and do not account for the respiration process in water column. Note that the RCM only simulates the HZ’s contribution to the dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the streams, and the CO2 emissions to the atmosphere are not modelled. The model computes at hourly timesteps because of the fast reaction rates. The key input data of the model are exchange flux, residence time, and stream solute (dissolved organic carbon (DOC), dissolved oxygen (DO), and nitrate concentrations). These inputs are constant over time and represent long-term averaged values.This modeling framework successfully quantified HZ respiration components over multiple scales. It revealed key mechanisms driving the spatial variation of HZ aerobic and anaerobic respiration in reaches with varying hydrologic and substrate conditions. Thus, this modeling study offers a testing hypothesis in different river system (e.g., climate and biomes) for the HZ respiration processes, and can be used as a sampling design tool for large-scale HZ experimental studies.This dataset contains five folders: (1) model_inputs, (2) model_outputs, (3) Rscripts, (4) figures, and (5) model_codes. It also contains a readme, file level metadata (FLMD), and data dictionary (dd). Please see the FLMD for a list of all the files contained in this data package and descriptions for each. The model_inputs folder contains the model inputs used to drive the model simulations. The model_outputs folder contains key model output files from the river corridor model. The Rscripts folder contains the Rscripts for pre- and post- processing model results. The figures folder contains the raw figures associated with the manuscript. The model_codes folder includes key model source codes/input files. All files are .jpg, .jpeg, .out, .e, .od, .dat, .sub, .F90, .0, .R, .sbx, .cpg, .sbn, .shx, .shp, .dbf, .prj, .tfw, .tif, .xml, .pdf, or .csv.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

A general spatial-temporal framework for short-term building temperature forecasting at arbitrary locations with crowdsourcing weather data

Weather forecasting has been a critical component to predict and control building energy consumption for better building energy management. Without accessibility to other data sources, the onsite observed temperatures or the airport temperatures are used in forecast models. In this paper, we present a novel approach by utilizing the crowdsourcing weather data from neighboring personal weather stations (PWS) to improve the weather forecast accuracy around buildings using a general spatial-temporal modeling framework. The final forecast is based on the ensemble of local forecasts for the target location using neighboring PWSs. Our approach is distinguished from existing literature in various aspects. First, we leverage the crowdsourcing weather data from PWS in addition to public data sources. In this way, the data is at much finer time resolution (e.g., at 5-minute frequency) and spatial resolution (e.g., arbitrary location vs grid). Second, our proposed model incorporates spatial-temporal correlation information of weather variables between the target building and a set of neighboring PWSs so that underlying correlations can be effectively captured to improve forecasting performance. Here, we demonstrate the performance of the proposed framework by comparing to the benchmark models on temperature forecasting for a building located at an arbitrary location at San Antonio, Texas, USA. In general, the proposed model framework equipped with machine learning technique such as Random Forest can improve forecasting by 50% compares with persistent model and has 90% chance to outperform airport forecast in short-term forecasting. In a real-time setting, the proposed model framework can provide more accurate temperature forecasting results compared with using airport temperature forecast for most forecast horizon. Moreover, we analyze the sensitivity of model parameters to gain insights on how crowdsourcing data from the neighboring personal weather stations impacts forecasting performance. Finally, we implement our model in other cities such as Syracuse and Chicago to test the model's performance in different landforms and climate types.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating and Improving Scale–Awareness of a Convective Parameterization Closure Using Cloud–Resolving Model Simulations of Convection

This study aims to evaluate a revised closure of the Zhang-McFarlane (ZM) scheme for deep convection and to further improve its scale awareness. Output from two cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations of both midlatitude organized (MC3E) and tropical unorganized (TWP-ICE) convection are used for the evaluation. By averaging the CRM output over different subdomain sizes from 64 km to 4 km, convection-associated fields are obtained to represent the fields at different horizontal resolutions of global climate models (GCMs). The convection parameterization closure is then tested using these fields. Results show that the cloud base mass flux M b determined from the closure has a relatively good relationship with CRM-simulated convection at coarse resolutions for both MC3E and TWP-ICE, but their correlation degrades at higher resolutions, especially when approaching the gray zone scale under 10 km. The fluctuation of CAPE consumption rate per unit cloud base mass flux for different convective events is found to be an important factor affecting the correlation. When averaged over the base domain, the cloud base mass flux determined by the closure is found to increase with decreasing subdomain size, implying that the closure is not scale-aware. To improve its scale-awareness, a modified closure is designed to alleviate the overprediction of convection at high GCM resolutions. Furthermore, results show that the modified closure has the scale-aware ability to suppress the overprediction problem at high GCM resolutions for both MC3E and TWP-ICE.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing Prior Emergent Constraints on Surface Albedo Feedback in CMIP6

An emergent constraint (EC) is a popular model evaluation technique, which offers the potential to reduce intermodel variability in projections of climate change. Two examples have previously been laid out for future surface albedo feedbacks (SAF) stemming from loss of Northern Hemisphere (NH) snow cover (SAF snow ) and sea ice (SAF ice ). These processes also have a modern-day analog that occurs each year as snow and sea ice retreat from their seasonal maxima, which is strongly correlated with future SAF across an ensemble of climate models. The newly released CMIP6 ensemble offers the chance to test prior constraints through out-of-sample verification, an important examination of EC robustness. Here, we show that the SAF snow EC is equally strong in CMIP6 as it was in past generations, while the SAF ice EC is also shown to exist in CMIP6, but with different, slightly weaker characteristics. We find that the CMIP6 mean NH SAF exhibits a global feedback of 0.25 ± 0.05 W m -2 K -1 , or ~61% of the total global albedo feedback, largely in line with prior generations despite its increased climate sensitivity. Additionally, the NH SAF can be broken down into similar contributions from snow and sea ice over the twenty-first century in CMIP6. Crucially, intermodel variability in seasonal SAF snow and SAF ice is largely unchanged from CMIP5 because of poor outlier simulations of snow cover, surface albedo, and sea ice thickness. These outliers act to mask the noted improvement from many models when it comes to SAF ice , and to a lesser extent SAF snow .

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simple Hybrid Sea Ice Nudging Method for Improving Control Over Partitioning of Sea Ice Concentration and Thickness

Abstract To assess the effect of ocean‐atmosphere coupling in the climate response to forced sea ice loss, the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project protocol includes centennial coupled atmosphere‐ocean general circulation model simulations with imposed sea ice loss. The protocol, which specifies sea ice concentration and thickness distribution targets, does not prescribe a method for achieving them. Although different methods for imposing sea ice loss (or growth) in models have been documented, testing of the method‐dependence of the resulting climate responses has been limited. Achieving the targeted sea ice state has proven to be challenging using the so‐called ghost‐flux nudging method, which induces ice melt from below, as this method does not constrain the partitioning between thickness and concentration. We propose, describe and test a simple method that combines the advantages of direct sea ice nudging and ghost‐flux nudging. The hybrid nudging method better captures the partitioning between thickness and concentration while conserving total water content. We document how this novel sea ice constraining method reaches specific targets, enhances surface turbulent heat flux responses to sea ice loss, and induces tropospheric warming for both polar regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Data Imbalance, Uncertainty Quantification, and Transfer Learning in Data‐Driven Parameterizations: Lessons From the Emulation of Gravity Wave Momentum Transport in WACCM

Abstract Neural networks (NNs) are increasingly used for data‐driven subgrid‐scale parameterizations in weather and climate models. While NNs are powerful tools for learning complex non‐linear relationships from data, there are several challenges in using them for parameterizations. Three of these challenges are (a) data imbalance related to learning rare, often large‐amplitude, samples; (b) uncertainty quantification (UQ) of the predictions to provide an accuracy indicator; and (c) generalization to other climates, for example, those with different radiative forcings. Here, we examine the performance of methods for addressing these challenges using NN‐based emulators of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) physics‐based gravity wave (GW) parameterizations as a test case. WACCM has complex, state‐of‐the‐art parameterizations for orography‐, convection‐, and front‐driven GWs. Convection‐ and orography‐driven GWs have significant data imbalance due to the absence of convection or orography in most grid points. We address data imbalance using resampling and/or weighted loss functions, enabling the successful emulation of parameterizations for all three sources. We demonstrate that three UQ methods (Bayesian NNs, variational auto‐encoders, and dropouts) provide ensemble spreads that correspond to accuracy during testing, offering criteria for identifying when an NN gives inaccurate predictions. Finally, we show that the accuracy of these NNs decreases for a warmer climate (4 × CO 2 ). However, their performance is significantly improved by applying transfer learning, for example, re‐training only one layer using ∼1% new data from the warmer climate. The findings of this study offer insights for developing reliable and generalizable data‐driven parameterizations for various processes, including (but not limited to) GWs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗