Climate & National Security: A perspective from Sandia National Laboratory .
Abstract not provided.
Bull, Diana↗
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Energy Climate & Infrastructure Security FY14 Strategic Plan.
Abstract not provided.
Heinrichs, Todd D.↗
Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations
The resilience of defense infrastructure systems to a changing climate is critical for national security. Climate induced recurrent flooding is already impacting over 20 U.S. Air Force installations, underscoring the urgency of revisiting precipitation standards and stormwater infrastructure design. Despite growing scientific knowledge and an expanding set of tools for updating outdated precipitation standards based on the assumption of climate stationarity, the adoption of climate informed analyses remain limited in practice. This study utilizes an existing framework to update Intensity (or Depth)-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves using an ensemble of future climate projections. Change factors in precipitation estimates are derived and applied to six USAF installations across the U.S. The analysis is further extended to evaluate the implications of climate-informed DDFs on stormwater infrastructure performance and flood analysis at Tyndall AFB. Results indicate that the current design precipitation estimates are likely to become obsolete in all six USAF bases by the end of the century. The wide range of change factors across 32 GCM ensembles highlights the need to integrate uncertainty and evolving scientific data into infrastructure planning. The study also finds that the impacts of a changing climate vary spatially and temporally, emphasizing the value of localized analysis for infrastructure decision-making. The work advances ongoing DoD and societal efforts to implement adaptation strategies aimed at enhancing infrastructure resilience.
Intensity-duration-frequency curves↗
Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System
Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns.
Climate↗
Conditional multi-step attribution for climate forcings
SAND2025-11608O Conditional multi-step attribution for climate forcings and its associated dataset present a framework for attributing a climate impacts, such as stratospheric warming or surface cooling, to a specific magnitude of climate forcing, such as stratospheric aerosol injection. The objective is to improve on existing methods that struggle to attribute highly noisy climate signals. This has potential broader use in climate security applications to identify and understand geoengineering and climate tipping point effects. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.
Swiler, Laura↗
Marine Microalgae: Climate, Energy, and Food Security from the Sea
Climate, energy, and food security are three of the greatest challenges society faces this century. Solutions for mitigating the effects of climate change often conflict with solutions for ensuring society’s future energy and food requirements. For example, BioEnergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) has been proposed as an important method for achieving negative CO2 emissions later this century while simultaneously producing renewable energy on a global scale. However, BECCS has many negative environmental consequences for land, nutrient, and water use as well as biodiversity and food production. In contrast, large-scale industrial cultivation of marine microalgae can provide society with a more environmentally favorable approach for meeting the climate goals agreed to at the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, producing the liquid hydrocarbon fuels required by the global transportation sector, and supplying much of the protein necessary to feed a global population approaching 10 billion people.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Data for Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year–1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year–1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.
Field Data↗
Climate vs Energy Security: Quantifying the Trade-offs of BECCS Deployment and Overcoming Opportunity Costs on Set-Aside Land
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) sits at the nexus of the climate and energy security. We evaluated trade-offs between scenarios that support climate stabilization (negative emissions and net climate benefit) or energy security (ethanol production). Our spatially explicit model indicates that the foregone climate benefit from abandoned cropland (opportunity cost) increased carbon emissions per unit of energy produced by 14–36%, making geologic carbon capture and storage necessary to achieve negative emissions from any given energy crop. The toll of opportunity costs on the climate benefit of BECCS from set-aside land was offset through the spatial allocation of crops based on their individual biophysical constraints. Dedicated energy crops consistently outperformed mixed grasslands. We estimate that BECCS allocation to land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) could capture up to 9 Tg C year –1 from the atmosphere, deliver up to 16 Tg CE year –1 in emissions savings, and meet up to 10% of the US energy statutory targets, but contributions varied substantially as the priority shifted from climate stabilization to energy provision. Furthermore, our results indicate a significant potential to integrate energy security targets into sustainable pathways to climate stabilization but underpin the trade-offs of divergent policy-driven agendas.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Climate and National Security Briefing
This presentation is briefing for potential sponsors of LANL work relating to climate and national security impacts.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research
The literature on climate change's impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in "think tanks," government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation tech-nology choices but find less evidence of climate change's direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organi-zations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security.
climate change↗
Data from: Nitrogen fertilization challenges the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels
Cellulosic biofuels are intended to improve future energy and climate security. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is commonly recommended to stimulate yields but can increase losses of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N2O) and other forms of reactive N, including nitrate. We measured soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching along a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) high resolution N-fertilizer gradient for three years post-establishment. Results revealed an exponential increase in annual N2O emissions that each year became stronger (R 2 > 0.9, P < 0.001) and deviated further from the fixed percentage assumed for IPCC Tier 1 emission factors. Concomitantly, switchgrass yields became less responsive each year to N fertilizer. Nitrate leaching (and calculated indirect N2O emissions) also increased exponentially in response to N inputs, but neither methane (CH4) uptake nor soil organic carbon changed detectably. Overall, N fertilizer inputs at rates greater than crop need curtailed the climate benefit of ethanol production almost two-fold, from a maximum mitigation capacity of −5.71 ± 0.22 Mg CO2e ha−1 yr−1 in switchgrass fertilized at 56 kg N ha−1 to only −2.97 ± 0.18 Mg CO2e ha−1 yr−1 in switchgrass fertilized at 196 kg N ha−1. Minimizing N fertilizer use will be an important strategy for fully realizing the climate benefits of cellulosic biofuel production.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Nitrogen fertilization challenges the climate benefit of cellulosic biofuels
Cellulosic biofuels are intended to improve future energy and climate security. Nitrogen (N) fertilizer is commonly recommended to stimulate yields but can increase losses of the greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and other forms of reactive N, including nitrate. We measured soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching along a switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) high resolution N-fertilizer gradient for three years post-establishment. Results revealed an exponential increase in annual N2O emissions that each year became stronger (R 2 > 0.9, P < 0.001) and deviated further from the fixed percentage assumed for IPCC Tier 1 emission factors. Concomitantly, switchgrass yields became less responsive each year to N fertilizer. Nitrate leaching (and calculated indirect N2O emissions) also increased exponentially in response to N inputs, but neither methane (CH4) uptake nor soil organic carbon changed detectably. Overall, N fertilizer inputs at rates greater than crop need curtailed the climate benefit of ethanol production almost two-fold, from a maximum mitigation capacity of–5.71 ± 0.22 Mg CO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 in switchgrass fertilized at 56 kgNha –1 to only –2.97 ± 0.18 MgCO 2 e ha –1 yr –1 in switchgrass fertilized at 196 kgNha –1 . In conclusion, minimizing N fertilizer use will be an important strategy for fully realizing the climate benefits of cellulosic biofuel production.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
Karst characterization in a semi-arid region using gravity, seismic, and resistivity geophysical techniques.
We proposed to customize emerging in situ geophysical monitoring technology to generate time-series data during sporadic rain events in a semi-arid region. Electrodes were to be connected to wireless \nodes" which can be left in the eld for many months. Embedded software would then increase sampling frequency during periods of rainfall. We hypothesized that this contrast between no-volume ow in karst passageways dur- ing dry periods and partial- or saturated-volume ow during a rain event is detectable by these Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) geophysical nodes, we call this a Wireless Resistivity Network (WRN). The development of new methodologies to characterize semi-arid karst hydrology is intended to augment Sandia National Laboratorys mission to lead e orts in energy technologies, waste disposal and climate security by helping to identify safe and secure regions and those that are at risk. Development and initial eld testing identi ed technological barriers to using WRNs for identifying semi-arid karst, exposing R&D which can be targeted in the future. Gravity, seismic, and resis- tivity surveys elucidated how each technique might e ectively be used to characterize semi-arid karst. This research brings to light the importance and challenges with char- acterizing semi-arid karst through a multi-method geophysical study. As there have been very few studies with this emphasis, this study has expanded the body of practical experience needed to protect the nations water and energy security interests.
Barnhart, Kevin Scott↗
Community Conversation [Slides]
Our employees are the reason we kept up so much vital work during the pandemic. LANL is responsible for important R&D work for the nation and our scope is growing. COVID has taught us there are many ways to leverage technology to work effectively. Our researchers are making important contributions to nuclear security, climate change, environmental remediation, and fuel cell technology. LANL played a key leadership role in the pandemic by identifying mutations, predicting spread, and providing decision support. LANL has exciting news and changes on the horizon.
96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
CERES: CRISPR Engineering for the Rapid Enhancement of Strains
Previous strain development efforts for cyanobacteria have failed to achieve the necessary productivities needed to support economic biofuel production. We proposed to develop CRISPR Engineering for Rapid Enhancement of Strains (CERES). We developed genetic and computational tools to enable future high-throughput screening of CRISPR interference (CRISPRi) libraries in the cyanobacterium Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002, including: (1) Operon- SEQer: an ensemble of algorithms for predicting operon pairs using RNA-seq data, (2) experimental characterization and machine learning prediction of gRNA design rules for CRISPRi, and (3) a shuttle vector for gene expression. These tools lay the foundation for CRISPR library screening to develop cyanobacterial strains that are optimized for growth or metabolite production under a wide range of environmental conditions. The optimization of cyanobacterial strains will directly advance U.S. energy and climate security by enabling domestic biofuel production while simultaneously mitigating atmospheric greenhouse gases through photoautotrophic fixation of carbon dioxide.
09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
UT Austin's 2022 Sandia Day (Summary Report)
On March 30th and 31st, 2022, the University of Texas at Austin (UT) Office of the Vice President for Research (OVPR) hosted Sandia National Laboratories (Sandia) for “Sandia Day at UT Austin” to understand the status of the strategic partnership and explore opportunities for partnership growth. The event brought together more than 115 UT and Sandia participants including executive leadership, researchers, faculty, staff, and students. Sandia Day primarily consisted of a half-day leadership meeting, a research poster session and networking event, and three break-out sessions focused on strategic priority areas: Microelectronics, Energy and Climate Security, and High-Performance and Edge Computing. Appendix A contains the full Sandia Day agenda. Additional meetings and workshops (adjunct meetings) were held in conjunction with Sandia Day to maximize partnership exploration. Adjunct meetings were Hypersonics, Decarbonization, Disinformation, and Battery Workshops. A summary of Sandia Day events, sessions, and meetings follows.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes
Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.
Variability↗
Gray Wave of the Great Transformation: A Satellite View of Urbanization, Climate, and Food Security
Land cover change driven by human activity is profoundly affecting Earth's natural systems with impacts ranging from a loss of biological productivity to changes in atmospheric chemistry and regional and global climate. This change has been so pervasive and progressed so rapidly, compared to natural processes, scientists refer to it as 'the great transformation'. Urbanization or the 'gray wave' of this transformation is being increasingly recognized as an important process in global climate change. A hallmark of our success as a species, large urban conglomerates do in fact alter their environments so profoundly that the local climate, atmospheric composition, and the basic ecology of the landscape are affected in ways that have consequences to human health and economic well-being. Fortunately we have incredible new tools to observe and understand these processes in ways that can be used to plan and develop enjoyable and sustainable urban places. A suite of Earth observing satellites is making it possible to study the interactions between urbanization, biological processes, and the atmosphere including weather and climate. Using these Earth Observatories we are learning how urban heat islands form and potentially ameliorate them, how urbanization can affect rainfall, pollution, surface water recharge at the local level, and climate and food security globally.
Imhoff, Marc L.↗