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At least 37 records · Page 2

Using High-Resolution NSRDB Data to Evaluate Cloud Mask Forecast from WRF-Solar EPS

Validating spatiotemporal distributions of cloud forecasts using numerical weather prediction (NWP) models is difficult as this requires high-quality cloud-property at significantly high spatial and temporal resolution over extended periods of time. Observations of cloud properties, such as cloud mask, cloud optical thickness, and cloud type, are vital for assessing the capability of NWP models to forecast various types of clouds. Using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB), this research evaluates ensemble cloud-mask predictions from the WRF-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). From the WRF-Solar EPS, day-ahead solar forecasts for the contiguous United States (CONUS) for 2018 are simulated. Given the NSRDB data is accessible at a resolution of 2 km, we can calculate the cloud fraction across the 9-km grid of WRF-Solar EPS. This allows us to spatially assess the cloud-mask forecasts using two methods against the high-resolution NSRDB: (a) considering all 2-km NSRDB clouds in the forecast domain (EMAll), and (b) using a minimum cloud fraction threshold of 50% to designate a pixel as cloudy (EMP50). The low-resolution cloud masks from WRF-Solar EPS are evaluated directly against the cloud-resolving scale gridded observations from NSRDB using EMAll. With EMP50, we presume that scenes with less than 50% cloud cover from the 2-km NSRDB are clear. Thus, this assessment approach allows for a fair comparison with WRF-Solar EPS resolved to a 9-km grid. A method of point-by-point verification is used to evaluate dichotomous (yes/no) cloud mask predictions against the NSRDB. For each pixel of model extent, cloud frequency and traditional metrics (e.g., probability of detection, false alarm rate, and hit rate, etc.) are computed and compared with satellite-derived data sets. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is computed to measure the present capability of WRF-Solar EPS in representing various types of clouds, which are categorized using three levels of cloud top height (CTH) and cloud optical depth (COD) across entire CONUS. Preliminary results show that the WRF-Solar EPS provides MCF values ranging from 9% to 46%, 16% to 33%, and 8% to 27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively, for three CTHs. The model produces MCFs ranging from 27% to 46%, 13% to 34%, and 8% to 19% for thin, medium-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively, for three CODs. The presentation will include a detailed description of the current outcomes as well as potential future extensions. The evaluation approach established in this study is readily extensible to the evaluation of cloud predictions from different ensemble NWP models. In addition, the findings of the suggested evaluation technique aid in identifying model weaknesses and will ultimately lead to advances in WRF-Solar EPS's skill in predicting clouds and solar irradiance.

cloud mask forecast↗

Tabulated Database of Closed-Loop Geothermal Systems Performance for Cloud-Based Technical and Economic Modeling of Heat Production and Electricity Generation: Preprint

To better understand the heat production, electricity generation performance and economic viability of closed loop geothermal systems in hot-dry-rock, the Closed Loop Geothermal Group, a consortium of several national labs and academic institutions has tabulated time-dependent numerical solutions and levelized cost results of two popular closed loop heat exchanger designs (u-tube and co-axial). The heat exchanger designs were evaluated for two working fluids (water and super-critical CO2) while varying seven continuous independent parameters of interest (i.e., mass flow rate, vertical depth, horizontal extent, borehole diameter, formation gradient, formation conductivity, and injection temperature). The corresponding numerical solutions (approximately 1.2 million per heat exchanger design) are stored as multi-dimensional HDF5 datasets and can be queried at off-grid points using multi-dimensional linear interpolation. A Python script was developed to query this database and estimate time-dependent electricity generation using an Organic Rankine cycle (for water) or direct turbine expansion cycle (for CO2) and perform a cost assessment. This document aims to give an overview of the HDF5 database file and highlights how to read, visualize, and query quantities of interest (e.g., levelized cost of electricity, levelized cost of heat) using the accompanying python scripts. Details regarding the capital, operation, and maintenance and levelized cost calculation using the TEA (techno-economic analysis) script are provided.

co-axial↗

Development of a Cloud-based Application to Enable a Scalable Risk-informed Predictive Maintenance Strategy at Nuclear Power Plants

Light-water reactor operations and maintenance (O&M) costs are prohibitively high, thus contributing to the premature decommissioning of nuclear power plants (NPPs). This is partly due to how the equipment is monitored. In recent years, cloud computing has emerged as a dominant technology by virtue of its low costs, computing and storage adaptability, and ability to host applications over numerous types of virtual infrastructures. Cloud computing can be a cost-effective alternative to onsite storage and diagnostics. This paper conducts a techno-economic assessment of a provisional cloud deployment architecture for a NPP predictive monitoring (PdM) system. The cloud-based monitoring system would enable maintenance and diagnostics (M&D) analysts and other authorized plant users to remotely monitor equipment functionality so as to enable PdM practices and early detection of faults. The Microsoft Azure cloud platform is included in the proposed cloud architecture to provide data processing and storage, sensor device networking, and database management; however, this analysis could be extended to other cloud computing service providers as well. For the techno-economic assessment, technical feasibility is measured in terms of network performance metrics such as response time, latency, and throughput, whereas economic feasibility is measured in terms of operational costs and capital expenditures. Finally, this report covers certain regulatory and security aspects that may concern licensees looking to implement cloud computing. The report focuses on the integration of sensor database storage, the application of cloud resources to PdM, and the identification of technological and economic hurdles associated with moving to a cloud-computing-based architecture.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Machine learning in nuclear materials research

Nuclear materials are often demanded to function for extended time in extreme environments, including high radiation fluxes with associated transmutations, high temperature and temperature gradients, mechanical stresses, and corrosive coolants. They also have a wide range of microstructural and chemical makeups, resulting in multifaceted and often out-of-equilibrium interactions. Machine learning (ML) is increasingly being used to tackle these complex time-dependent interactions and aid researchers in developing models and making predictions, sometimes with better accuracy than traditional modeling that focuses on one or two parameters at a time. Conventional practices of acquiring new experimental data in nuclear materials research are often slow and expensive, limiting the opportunity for data-centric ML, but new methods are changing that paradigm. Here we review high-throughput computational and experimental data approaches, especially robotic experimentation and active learning that is based on Gaussian process and Bayesian optimization. We show ML examples in structural materials (e.g., reactor pressure vessel (RPV) alloys and radiation detecting scintillating materials) and highlight new techniques of high-throughput sample preparation and characterizations, and automated radiation/environmental exposures and real-time online diagnostics. Herein, this review suggests that ML models of material constitutive relations in plasticity, damage, and even electronic and optical responses to radiation are likely to become powerful tools as they develop. Finally, we speculate on how the recent trends of using natural language processing (NLP) to aid the collection and analysis of literature data, interpretable artificial intelligence (AI), and the use of streamlined scripting, database, workflow management, and cloud computing platforms that will soon make the utilization of ML techniques as commonplace as the spreadsheet curve-fitting practices of today.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Reducing Uncertainty of Fielded Photovoltaic Performance (Final Technical Report)

Improved analysis and reporting of photovoltaic (PV) field performance increases the certainty of owners and financiers that systems will perform as expected. Advanced module technologies (e.g., PERC, HJT, and bifacial) introduce new degradation mechanisms and performance characteristics. The FY19-21 Reducing Uncertainty project leveraged data from the ever-increasing PV fleet to develop models and understanding of the field performance of existing and new technologies. Specifically, we accomplished: report on field performance and degradation rates for high-efficiency silicon (HJT, PERC, IBC) and more conventional technologies; developed automated analysis techniques to quantify system performance (performance ratio, energy yield) and production shortfalls (soiling, degradation, availability); refined the RdTools software toolkit to bring standard, validated analysis techniques to bear on third-party data; analyzed and reported on large datasets including Treasury data and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory's Utility-Scale dataset to expand the high-quality degradation-rate histogram published previously; worked with industry partners and the DuraMAT data hub to enable private parties to share and aggregate PV production data anonymously, leveraging cloud-based data analysis infrastructure and publishing on US fleet-scale performance comprising over 7GW of operating systems. (https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html). Through our industry collaborations we have engaged in NDA-covered data transfer with twelve PV fleet owners as of January 2022, with more agreements in negotiation. Our scalable cloud-based time series database contains over 30 billion rows (20TB) of PV time series data, representing over 1700 commercial and utility-scale systems, and over 7.2 GW of DC capacity (Fig 1). Initial field performance results have been distributed in several public reports. Because our fleet composition and data quality methods are continually improving, annual updates to these results are published to our PV Fleet webpage [ https://www.nrel.gov/pv/fleet-performance-data-initiative.html ] and DuraMAT data hub [DOI: 10.21948/1842958]. Another existing dissemination channel used for observed soiling losses is a map we maintain for soiling losses. Additional products developed include a report detailing fleet-wide performance index, availability, startup loss and snow loss factors, a detailed report on the 1603 grant dataset comprising over 100,000 PV systems with failure and performance details and a utility-scale report coauthored with LBNL on 31 GW of system performance.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of a Scalable Risk-informed Predictive Maintenance Cloud-based Strategy at Nuclear Power Plants

The fact that light-water reactor operation and maintenance costs are prohibitively expensive and contribute to the premature decommissioning of nuclear power plants is partly due to how the equipment is monitored. In recent years, cloud computing has emerged as a dominant technology, as its low cost, computing and storage adaptability, and ability to host applications across numerous virtual infrastructures potentially make it a cost-effective alternative to onsite storage and diagnostics. In this paper, a technological assessment is carried out on a provisional cloud deployment architecture for a nuclear power plant predictive monitoring system. This cloud-based monitoring system would enable maintenance and diagnostic analysts and other authorized plant users to remotely monitor equipment functionality, thus enabling early fault detection and effective predictive maintenance practices. To provide data processing and storage, sensor device networking, and database management, the Microsoft Azure cloud platform is utilized as part of the proposed cloud architecture; however, this analysis could be extended to other cloud computing service providers as well. The focus of this paper is on application of cloud resources for enabling predictive maintenance, identification of technological hurdles associated with moving to a cloud-computing-based architecture, and potential benefits from moving to a centralized cloud system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

SU-E-P-05: Electronic Brachytherapy: A Physics Perspective On Field Implementation

Purpose: We want to summarize our experience implementing a successful program of electronic brachytherapy at several dermatology clinics with the help of a cloud based software to help us define the key program parameters and capture physics QA aspects. Optimally developed software helps the physicist in peer review and qualify the physical parameters. Methods: Using the XOFT™ Axxent™ electronic brachytherapy system in conjunction with a cloud-based software, a process was setup to capture and record treatments. It was implemented initially at about 10 sites in California. For dosimetric purposes, the software facilitated storage of the physics parameters of surface applicators used in treatment and other source calibration parameters. In addition, the patient prescription, pathology and other setup considerations were input by radiation oncologist and the therapist. This facilitated physics planning of the treatment parameters and also independent check of the dwell time. From 2013–2014, nearly1500 such calculation were completed by a group of physicists. A total of 800 patients with multiple lesions have been treated successfully during this period. The treatment log files have been uploaded and documented in the software which facilitated physics peer review of treatments per the standards in place by AAPM and ACR. Results: The program model was implemented successfully at multiple sites. The cloud based software allowed for proper peer review and compliance of the program at 10 clinical sites. Dosimtery was done on 800 patients and executed in a timely fashion to suit the clinical needs. Accumulated physics data in the software from the clinics allows for robust analysis and future development. Conclusion: Electronic brachytherapy implementation experience from a quality assurance perspective was greatly enhanced by using a cloud based software. The comprehensive database will pave the way for future developments to yield superior physics outcomes.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluation of WRF-Solar Cloud Forecast Using the NSRDB: Preprint

Cloud forecast is a crucial component in predicting solar irradiance from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Assessing cloud properties from the NWP models requires significant work due to the need for high-quality data, spatial analysis covering model extent, and detailed analysis of model performance for different types of clouds. This study presents an evaluation of the WRF-Solar cloud forecast using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). We propose an evaluation framework applied to a single model prediction as well as ensemble-based forecasts. Various cloud detection metrics are calculated when comparing with the satellite-derived dataset. The mismatched clouds from the WRF-Solar model are quantified using nine cloud types classified by cloud top height and cloud optical depth. The results based on the WRF-Solar forecasts covering the entire U.S. for the full year of 2018 shows mismatched cloud frequency in the range of 8% - 46% for thick and high-level (deep convective) to thin and low-level (cumulus) clouds.

cloud mask forecast↗

A Toolkit for ARB to Integrate Custom Databases and Externally Built Phylogenies

Researchers are perpetually amassing biological sequence data. The computational approaches employed by ecologists for organizing this data (e.g. alignment, phylogeny, etc.) typically scale nonlinearly in execution time with the size of the dataset. This often serves as a bottleneck for processing experimental data since many molecular studies are characterized by massive datasets. To keep up with experimental data demands, ecologists are forced to choose between continually upgrading expensive in-house computer hardware or outsourcing the most demanding computations to the cloud. Outsourcing is attractive since it is the least expensive option, but does not necessarily allow direct user interaction with the data for exploratory analysis. Desktop analytical tools such as ARB are indispensable for this purpose, but they do not necessarily offer a convenient solution for the coordination and integration of datasets between local and outsourced destinations. Therefore, researchers are currently left with an undesirable tradeoff between computational throughput and analytical capability. To mitigate this tradeoff we introduce a software package to leverage the utility of the interactive exploratory tools offered by ARB with the computational throughput of cloud-based resources. Our pipeline serves as middleware between the desktop and the cloud allowing researchers to form local custom databases containing sequences and metadata from multiple resources and a method for linking data outsourced for computation back to the local database. Furthermore, a tutorial implementation of the toolkit is provided in the supporting information, S1 Tutorial.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Evaluating WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask forecast using the NSRDB

Improving the accuracy of day-ahead solar forecasts using numerical weather prediction models requires improving the forecasting of cloud occurrence and properties. Validating cloud forecasts is challenging because this requires evaluating different types of clouds over a wide variety of regions. This study analyzes the cloud occurrence (or cloud mask) over the contiguous United States (CONUS), predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar Ensemble Prediction System (WRF-Solar EPS), to identify the strengths and limitations of the model in reproducing cloud fields. To enable the in-depth analysis of cloud mask forecasts covering CONUS, we use satellite observations from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Two evaluation methods are implemented to consider all clouds and partially removed clouds from the 2-km NSRDB in evaluating the 9-km WRF-Solar EPS cloud mask. Cloud detection metrics as well as the frequency of cloud occurrence are used to quantify the monthly performance of WRF-Solar EPS. Mismatched cloud frequency (MCF) is used to assess the model's capability to predict different types of clouds, which are classified using three levels of cloud optical depth (COD) and cloud top height (CTH). The day-ahead forecasts covering the full year of 2018 demonstrate that WRF-Solar EPS produces MCFs ranging from 27%-46%, 13%-34%, and 8%-19% for thin, mid-thickness, and thick clouds, respectively. For three CTH levels, the model shows MCFs ranging from 19%-46%, 16%-33%, and 8%-27% for low-level, middle-level, and high-level clouds, respectively. This comprehensive characterization of model performance helps identify model weakness and will eventually lead to improvements in cloud and solar radiation forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Streamlining and Transparently Automating Complex Waste Determinations at Los Alamos National Laboratory - 17286

Environmental programs at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) generate a large amount of sampling activities that can result in waste that needs to be characterized and properly disposed. Since 2011, sampling results are managed in the cloud-based Environmental Information Management (EIM) database, which contains over 16 million current and historical data records. In many cases, the database's analytical records are used to characterize and dispose waste from environmental operations. Three factors contribute to streamlining of the waste disposition operations: (1) if possible, use of the existing analytical data for waste characterization to avoid additional laboratory analysis; (2) reduction in time spent on data evaluation for various waste acceptance criteria; and (3) choice of the proper and least expensive disposal alternative. Use of the existing analytical data, when allowed by law, creates some paradoxical problems: when chemical analysis is requested with the purpose of characterizing waste, it creates only 100 to 400 analytical records. However, use of exiting analytical data at LANL may lead to evaluation of tens of thousands of analytical records, with many records for each single analyte. This occurs because data were collected for environmental characterization and not waste characterization. To streamline data analysis for waste disposition using existing data, LANL has created a Waste Data Summary (WDS) module in the site's EIM database. Recognizing that waste determination is performed by groups outside the environmental program at LANL, the WDS allows for logically guided data selection for a specific waste determination (solids, liquids, radiological, etc.) and reduces potentially thousands of rows of data into simple formatted data reports that are easy to comprehend and process. This allows the waste evaluators to review data using multiple approaches to make their own determination on the most appropriate disposal method. There are four basic principles of WDS operation: (1) The highest detected analytical result is evaluated for the selected samples (or the lowest undetected result if there are no detected results); (2) All approved disposal pathways are evaluated; (3) Any failures of the Waste Acceptance Criteria are visibly highlighted to focus the attention of the evaluator; and (4) The decision of the disposal path is left to the trained waste evaluator (WDS does not choose or suggest any disposal paths). The summary results are presented as the set of short data reports. These reports can be divided into two groups: general comparison reports and disposal pathway specific forms. The general comparison forms show all Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) analytes with pass/fail evaluation and with preference for toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) results (or 20x rule) for solid samples, the potential RCRA hazard codes assignment for detected analytes, and all rad results. The detected chemical and radioactivity results are compared to the background values and to Soil Screening and Soil Action limits (SSL/SAL limits). Disposal pathway specific forms follow Waste Acceptance Criteria requirements for all disposal pathways available at LANL. The programming of the WDS tries to maximize existing data by analyte substitutions (like using gross alpha for necessary alpha emitting isotopes) or by making calculations when analytical results do not agree with legal requirements (like total chlordane in the RCRA regulations, which is most often analyzed and reported as individual isomers). All forms may be annotated by the waste evaluator to provide additional information to support decision making. Upon final decision of a disposal path, the complete dataset used in the evaluation and the WDS forms with annotations is 'frozen' as an un-editable PDF export to document the data used in the waste disposal determination. The streamlined process results in less work for waste evaluators and reduces overall labor and analytical costs. By comparison, a full review of a 10,000 record parent dataset may take a waste evaluator over a week to review, whereas with the WDS module, the task can be accomplished in less than one hour with clear, reproducible results. These results can be reviewed and checked at any time by quality assurance personnel, thus ensuring transparency in the decision making process. LANL believes this approach has broad applicability to other sites where waste determination is based on review of existing data collected for more generalized environmental purposes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗