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34 records · Page 2

HLA-Clus: HLA class I clustering based on 3D structure

In a previous paper, we classified populated HLA class I alleles into supertypes and subtypes based on the similarity of 3D landscape of peptide binding grooves, using newly defined structure distance metric and hierarchical clustering approach. Compared to other approaches, our method achieves higher correlation with peptide binding specificity, intra-cluster similarity (cohesion), and robustness. Here we introduce HLA-Clus, a Python package for clustering HLA Class I alleles using the method we developed recently and describe additional features including a new nearest neighbor clustering method that facilitates clustering based on user-defined criteria. The HLA-Clus pipeline includes three stages: First, HLA Class I structural models are coarse grained and transformed into clouds of labeled points. Second, similarities between alleles are determined using a newly defined structure distance metric that accounts for spatial and physicochemical similarities. Finally, alleles are clustered via hierarchical or nearest-neighbor approaches. We also interfaced HLA-Clus with the peptide:HLA affinity predictor MHCnuggets. By using the nearest neighbor clustering method to select optimal allele-specific deep learning models in MHCnuggets, the average accuracy of peptide binding prediction of rare alleles was improved. The HLA-Clus package offers a solution for characterizing the peptide binding specificities of a large number of HLA alleles. This method can be applied in HLA functional studies, such as the development of peptide affinity predictors, disease association studies, and HLA matching for grafting. HLA-Clus is freely available at our GitHub repository (https://github.com/yshen25/HLA-Clus).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols

We compare projections of the observed hemispherical mean surface temperature (HadCRUT4.6.0.0) and the ensemble mean of CMIP5 climate models' simulations on a set of standard regression model forcing variables. We find that the volcanic aerosol regression coefficients of the CMIP5 simulations are consistently significantly larger (by 40–49%) than the volcanic aerosol coefficients of the observed temperature. The probability that the observed differences are caused just by chance is much less than 0.01. The overestimate is due to the climate models' response to volcanic aerosol radiative forcing. The largest overestimate occurs in the winter season of each hemisphere. We hypothesize that the models' parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions within ice and mixed phase clouds is a likely source of this discrepancy. Furthermore, the models significantly underestimate the effect of solar variability on temperature for both hemispheres.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using machine learning to derive cloud condensation nuclei number concentrations from commonly available measurements

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) number concentrations are an important aspect of aerosol–cloud interactions and the subsequent climate effects; however, their measurements are very limited. We use a machine learning tool, random decision forests, to develop a random forest regression model (RFRM) to derive CCN at 0.4 % supersaturation ([CCN0.4]) from commonly available measurements. The RFRM is trained on the long-term simulations in a global size-resolved particle microphysics model. Using atmospheric state and composition variables as predictors, through associations of their variabilities, the RFRM is able to learn the underlying dependence of [CCN0.4] on these predictors, which are as follows: eight fractions of PM 2.5 (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3, secondary organic aerosol (SOA), black carbon (BC), primary organic carbon (POC), dust, and salt), seven gaseous species (NO x , NH 3 , O 3 , SO 2 , OH, isoprene, and monoterpene), and four meteorological variables (temperature (T), relative humidity (RH), precipitation, and solar radiation). The RFRM is highly robust: it has a median mean fractional bias (MFB) of 4.4 % with ≈96.33 % of the derived [CCN0.4] within a good agreement range of -60% 2.5 speciation (NH 4 , SO 4 , NO 3 , and organic carbon (OC)), NO x , O 3 , SO 2 , T, and RH, as well as [CCN0.4] are available. We modify, optimize, and retrain the developed RFRM to make predictions from 19 to 9 of these available predictors. This retrained RFRM (RFRM-ShortVars) shows a reduction in performance due to the unavailability and sparsity of measurements (predictors); it captures the [CCN0.4] variability and magnitude at SGP with ≈67.02 % of the derived values in the good agreement range. This work shows the potential of using the more commonly available measurements of PM 2.5 speciation to alleviate the sparsity of CCN number concentrations' measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Coding the Computing Continuum: Fluid Function Execution in Heterogeneous Computing Environments

Advances in network technologies have greatly decreased barriers to accessing physically distributed computers. This newfound accessibility coincides with increasing hardware specialization, creating exciting new opportunities to dispatch workloads to the best resource for a specific purpose, rather than those that are closest or most easily accessible. We present Delta, a service designed to intelligently schedule function-based workloads across a distributed set of heterogeneous computing resources. Delta implements an extensible architecture in which different predictors and scheduling algorithms can be integrated to provide dynamically evolving estimates of function execution times on different resources-estimates that can be used to determine the most appropriate location for execution. We describe predictors for function runtime, data transfer time, and cold-start resource provisioning and configuration delay; dynamic learning methods that update predictor models over time; and scheduling strategies that take into account both function and endpoint information. We show that these methods can halve workload makespan when compared with a strategy that selects the fastest resource, and decrease makespan by a factor of five when compared to a round robin strategy, when deployed on a heterogeneous testbed with resources ranging from a Raspberry Pi to a GPU node in an academic cloud.

Computing continuum↗

Updraft Width Modulates Ambient Atmospheric Controls on Convective Cloud Depth

Abstract The depth of convective clouds affects vertical transport of atmospheric constituents, influencing downstream weather and climate. Atmospheric controls on the maximum depth reached by moist convection are investigated with radar‐tracked convective cells tagged with sounding‐derived atmospheric parameters from a field campaign in central Argentina. Regression analyses show that narrow (<12‐km diameter) and wide (>16‐km diameter) cell depths respond to disparate factors, where cell areas are defined using composite reflectivity signatures. Undiluted lifted parcel indices including convective available potential energy (CAPE) and level of neutral buoyancy (LNB) are top predictors of wide cell maximum depth while mid‐tropospheric relative humidity is the top predictor of narrow cell maximum depth. Because narrow cells are more numerous than wide cells, the overall outcome of the full cell population does not strongly correlate with CAPE and LNB conditions. Tracked cells and atmospheric conditions in a simulation with 3‐km grid spacing covering the field campaign produce similar results to those observed. Narrow cells that are relatively deep have a cooler and moister mid‐troposphere with weaker free tropospheric subsidence, while relatively deep wide cells have much warmer and moister lower tropospheric conditions. These atmospheric differences are present 1 hr before cell initiation at both a fixed observing site and variable cell initiation locations. Simulated narrow cell maximum equivalent potential temperature decreases with height at a rate similar to the ambient vertical gradient, causing these cells to fall short of their LNB and supporting the view that entrainment‐driven dilution is a dominant control on their depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interpretable ensemble learning unveils main aerosol optical properties in predicting cloud condensation nuclei number concentration

Variations in cloud condensation nuclei number concentration (N CCN ) significantly influence cloud microphysics, yet direct N CCN measurements remain challenging. Here, we present an N CCN ensemble learning (NEL) model utilizing ensemble learning and interpretability analysis on aerosol optical parameters. Validated at two land sites, two ocean sites and one polar site within the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, the mean absolute percentage error range of the NEL model across different environments is from 12% to 36%, demonstrating high accuracy. Key findings reveal that aerosol optical parameters can serve as predictors for N CCN . Aerosol scattering and backscattering coefficients, absorption coefficient, backscatter fraction (BSF), and Ångström exponent (AE) are positively correlated with N CCN , while single scattering albedo shows negative correlations. N CCN prediction at land sites is highly sensitive to BSF, largely driven by the backscattering coefficient, as fine particles dominate in these sites. At ocean sites, N CCN prediction is more sensitive to AE, primarily influenced by the scattering coefficient, due to the higher proportion of larger particles. At the polar site, N CCN prediction shows sensitivity to both BSF and AE, mainly driven by the scattering coefficient, as polar sites are cleaner and contain larger particles. These differences reflect the variation in particle size and number concentration across different environments.

Atmospheric science↗

Size, shade, or shape? The contribution of galaxies of different types to the star formation history of the Universe from SDSS-IV MaNGA

ABSTRACT By fitting stellar populations to the fourth generation of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS-IV) Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey observations of ∼7000 suitably weighted individual galaxies, we reconstruct the star formation history of the Universe, which we find to be in reasonable agreement with previous studies. Dividing the galaxies by their present-day stellar mass, we demonstrate the downsizing phenomenon, whereby the more massive galaxies hosted the most star formation at earlier times. Further dividing the galaxy sample by colour and morphology, we find that a galaxy’s present-day colour tells us more about its historical contribution to the cosmic star formation history than its current morphology. We show that downsizing effects are greatest among galaxies currently in the blue cloud, but that the level of downsizing in galaxies of different morphologies depends quite sensitively on the morphological classification used, due largely to the difficulty in classifying the smaller low-mass galaxies from their ground-based images. Nevertheless, we find agreement that among galaxies with stellar masses $M_{\star } \gt 6\times 10^{9}\, \mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$, downsizing is most significant in spirals. However, there are complicating factors. For example, for more massive galaxies, we find that colour and morphology are predictors of the past star formation over a longer time-scale than in less massive systems. Presumably this effect is reflecting the longer period of evolution required to alter these larger galaxies’ physical properties, but shows that conclusions based on any single property do not tell the full story.

Peterken, Thomas↗

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Proxies of Present and Future Lightning in a Superparameterized Model

Abstract A superparameterized climate model is used to assess the global performance of several previously proposed proxies for lightning. In particular, predictors incorporating hydrometeor (ice, graupel) profiles and convective vertical velocities are compared to observations, then used to estimate changes in flash rates with global warming. The choice of microphysics parameterization is also investigated, with all predictors showing higher correlations with Lightning Imaging Sensor/Optical Transient Detector observations when using a 2‐moment scheme compared to a 1‐moment representation. All proxies generally agree in their response to warming over tropical land, with notable decreases in Africa, the Middle East, and northern South America, but disagree over oceans and the midlatitudes. The product of convective available potential energy and precipitation predicts increases over these latter areas, as do the 2‐moment ice‐based proxies, while those of the 1‐moment model tend to show decreases, highlighting the importance of cloud microphysics when using climate models to simulate lightning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Causally‐Informed Deep Learning to Improve Climate Models and Projections

Abstract Climate models are essential to understand and project climate change, yet long‐standing biases and uncertainties in their projections remain. This is largely associated with the representation of subgrid‐scale processes, particularly clouds and convection. Deep learning can learn these subgrid‐scale processes from computationally expensive storm‐resolving models while retaining many features at a fraction of computational cost. Yet, climate simulations with embedded neural network parameterizations are still challenging and highly depend on the deep learning solution. This is likely associated with spurious non‐physical correlations learned by the neural networks due to the complexity of the physical dynamical system. Here, we show that the combination of causality with deep learning helps removing spurious correlations and optimizing the neural network algorithm. To resolve this, we apply a causal discovery method to unveil causal drivers in the set of input predictors of atmospheric subgrid‐scale processes of a superparameterized climate model in which deep convection is explicitly resolved. The resulting causally‐informed neural networks are coupled to the climate model, hence, replacing the superparameterization and radiation scheme. We show that the climate simulations with causally‐informed neural network parameterizations retain many convection‐related properties and accurately generate the climate of the original high‐resolution climate model, while retaining similar generalization capabilities to unseen climates compared to the non‐causal approach. The combination of causal discovery and deep learning is a new and promising approach that leads to stable and more trustworthy climate simulations and paves the way toward more physically‐based causal deep learning approaches also in other scientific disciplines.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Reducing Southern Ocean Shortwave Radiation Errors in the ERA5 Reanalysis with Machine Learning and 25 Years of Surface Observations

Earth system models struggle to simulate clouds and their radiative effects over the Southern Ocean, partly due to a lack of measurements and targeted cloud microphysics knowledge. We have evaluated biases of downwelling shortwave radiation in the ERA5 climate reanalysis using 25 years (1995–2019) of summertime surface measurements, collected on the Research and Supply Vessel (RSV) Aurora Australis, the Research Vessel (R/V) Investigator, and at Macquarie Island. During October–March daylight hours, the ERA5 simulation of SW down exhibited large errors (mean bias = 54 W m -2 , mean absolute error = 82 W m -2 , root-mean-square error = 132 W m -2 , and R 2 = 0.71). To determine whether we could improve these statistics, we bypassed ERA5’s radiative transfer model for SW down with machine learning–based models using a number of ERA5’s gridscale meteorological variables as predictors. These models were trained and tested with the surface measurements of SW down using a 10-fold shuffle split. An extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) and a random forest–based model setup had the best performance relative to ERA5, both with a near complete reduction of the mean bias error, a decrease in the mean absolute error and root-mean-square error by 25% ± 3%, and an increase in the R 2 value of 5% ± 1% over the 10 splits. Large improvements occurred at higher latitudes and cyclone cold sectors, where ERA5 performed most poorly. We further interpret our methods using Shapley additive explanations. Our results indicate that data-driven techniques could have an important role in simulating surface radiation fluxes and in improving reanalysis products.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Wavelet Analysis of Properties of Marine Boundary Layer Mesoscale Cells Observed From AMSR–E

Marine boundary layer clouds tend to organize into closed or open mesoscale cellular convection (MCC). Here, two-dimensional wavelet analysis is applied for the first time to passive microwave retrievals of cloud water path (CWP), water vapor path (WVP), and rain rate (RR) from Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System in 2008 over the Northeast and Southeast Pacific, and the Southeast Atlantic subtropical stratocumulus to cumulus transition regions. The (co-)variability between CWP, WVP, and RR in 160 × 160 km 2 analysis boxes is partitioned between four mesoscale wavelength octaves (20, 40, 80, and 160 km). The cell scale is identified as the wavelength of the peak CWP variance. Together with a machine-learning classification of cell type, this allows the statistical characteristics of open and closed MCC of various scales, and its relation to WVP, RR, and potential environmental controlling factors to be analyzed across a very large set of cases. Here, the results show that the cell wavelength is most commonly 40–80 km. Cell-scale CWP perturbations are good predictors of the WVP and RR perturbations. For cells larger than 20 km, there is no obvious dependence of cell scale on the environmental controlling factors tested, suggesting that the cell scale may depend more on its historical evolution than the current environmental conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Survival of Snow in the Melting Layer: Relative Humidity Influence

This study quantifies how far snow can fall into the melting layer (ML) before all snow has melted by examining a combination of in-situ observations from aircraft measurements in Lagrangian spiral descents from above through the ML and descents and ascents into the ML, as well as an extensive database of NOAA surface observer reports during the past 50 years. The airborne data contain information on the particle phase (solid, mixed, or liquid), population size distributions and shapes, along with temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity. A wide range of temperatures and ambient relative humidities are used for both the airborne and ground-based data. It is shown that an ice bulb temperature of 0°C, together with the air temperature and pressure (altitude), are good first order predictors of the highest temperature snowflakes can survive in the melting layer before completely melting. Particle size is also important, as is whether the particles are graupel or hail. If the relative humidity is too low, the particles will sublimate completely as they fall into the melting layer. Snow as warm as +7°C is observed from aircraft measurements and surface observations. Snow pellets survive to even warmer temperatures. Relationships are developed to represent the primary findings.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global ocean dimethyl sulfide climatology estimated from observations and an artificial neural network

Marine dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is important to climate due to the ability of DMS to alter Earth's radiation budget. Knowledge of the global-scale distribution, seasonal variability, and sea-to-air flux of DMS is needed in order to improve understanding of atmospheric sulfur, aerosol/cloud dynamics, and albedo. Here we examine the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) to extrapolate available DMS measurements to the global ocean and produce a global climatology with monthly temporal resolution. A global database of 82 996 ship-based DMS measurements in surface waters was used along with a suite of environmental parameters consisting of latitude–longitude coordinates, time of day, time of year, solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, salinity, nitrate, phosphate, and silicate. Linear regressions of DMS against the environmental parameters show that on a global-scale mixed layer depth and solar radiation are the strongest predictors of DMS. These parameters capture ~9 % and ~7 % of the raw DMS data variance, respectively. Multilinear regression can capture more of the raw data variance (~39 %) but strongly underestimates DMS in high-concentration regions. In contrast, the artificial neural network captures ~66 % of the raw data variance in our database. Like prior climatologies our results show a strong seasonal cycle in surface ocean DMS with the highest concentrations and sea-to-air fluxes in the high-latitude summertime oceans. We estimate a lower global sea-to-air DMS flux (20.12±0.43 Tg S yr –1 ) than the prior estimate based on a map interpolation method when the same gas transfer velocity parameterization is used. Our sensitivity test results show that DMS concentration does not change unidirectionally with each of the environmental parameters, which emphasizes the interactions among these parameters. The ANN model suggests that the flux of DMS from the ocean to the atmosphere will increase with global warming. Given that larger DMS fluxes induce greater cloud albedo, this corresponds to a negative climate feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Production of ice-nucleating particles (INPs) by fast-growing phytoplankton

Sea spray aerosol contains ice-nucleating particles (INPs), which affect the formation and proper ties of clouds. Here, we show that aerosols emitted from fast-growing marine phytoplankton produce effective immersion INPs, which nucleate at temperatures significantly warmer than the atmospheric homogeneous freezing (-38.0 °C) of pure water. Aerosol sampled over phytoplankton cultures grown in a Marine Aerosol Ref erence Tank (MART) induced nucleation and freezing at temperatures as high as -15.0 °C during exponential phytoplankton growth. This was observed in monospecific cultures representative of two major groups of phy toplankton, namely a cyanobacterium (Synechococcus elongatus) and a diatom (Thalassiosira weissflogii). Ice nucleation occurred at colder temperatures (-28.5 °C and below), which were not different from the freezing temperatures of procedural blanks, when the cultures were in the stationary or death phases of growth. Ice nucleation at warmer temperatures was associated with relatively high values of the maximum quantum yield of photosystem II ( Φ PSII ), an indicator of the physiological status of phytoplankton. High values of Φ PSII indicate the presence of cells with efficient photochemistry and greater potential for photosynthesis. For comparison, field measurements in the North Atlantic Ocean showed that high net growth rates of natural phytoplankton assemblages were associated with marine aerosol that acted as effective immersion INPs at relatively warm temperatures. Data were collected over 4 d at a sampling station maintained in the same water mass as the water column stabilized after deep mixing by a storm. Phytoplankton biomass and net phytoplankton growth rate (0.56 d -1 ) were greatest over the 24 h preceding the warmest mean ice nucleation temperature (-25.5 °C). Collectively, our laboratory and field observations indicate that phytoplankton physiological status is a useful predictor of effective INPs and more reliable than biomass or taxonomic affiliation. Ocean regions associated with fast phytoplankton growth, such as the North Atlantic during the annual spring bloom, may be significant sources of atmospheric INPs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗