Results for “cloud radiative effects” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2026

Examining Cloud Feedback Components in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM)

Cloud feedback remains the main source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity estimated by global climate models (GCMs), largely because subgrid cloud responses are parameterized in GCMs due to their coarse resolution. Here, this study examines cloud feedback in the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud-Resolving Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km) through a pair of 1-yr atmosphere-only simulations with control and +4-K sea surface temperature perturbations. SCREAM 3 km produces a positive cloud feedback that falls within but at the upper end of the range of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) models and expert judgment. The positive cloud feedback arises from positive contributions from both high- and low-level clouds, with increases in high-cloud altitude and decreases in low-cloud amount and optical depth playing key roles. The stronger-than-CMIP-average feedback is mainly attributable to the high-cloud altitude feedback, owing to cloud tops rising nearly isothermally in SCREAM 3 km. The positive low-cloud amount feedback is weaker in SCREAM than in GCMs because estimated inversion strength (EIS) increases more dramatically with warming. A coarser 12-km resolution version of SCREAM exhibits a weaker positive cloud feedback than SCREAM 3 km, mainly because its low-cloud-radiative flux is more sensitive to EIS, leading to a stronger negative low-cloud amount feedback. With this process-level assessment of cloud feedback, this study reveals where SCREAM aligns with and diverges from conventional GCMs and expert assessment, providing insights to inform further model improvement and future expert assessment.

Cloud radiative effects↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July, August, and September, 2022

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A). This dataset includes the data in June, July, August, and September; the last year of the data is 2022.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for the whole year, from 2014 to 2015

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July, August, from 2000 to 2024

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

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DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for March, April and May, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for June, July and August, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for December, January and February, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

{node_som_ml,synop_wea_reg}↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synoptic Weather Regime Classifications for September, October and November, from 2000 to 2025

The synoptic weather regime classification has become a highly demanded product for the ARM site in recent years. This type of regime classification has shown applications in various studies and topics, including aerosol-cloud interactions, land-atmosphere interactions, and cloud radiative effects. The VAP employs an unsupervised machine learning method, Self-organizing map (SOM), to classify weather regimes for each day of the AMF campaigns and fixed sites, using ERA5 data. This idea is mainly based on our published study for TRACER in Wang et al. (2022, JGR-A).

node_som_ml↗

DOE OSTI2025

A new method for diagnosing effective radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions in climate models

Aerosol–cloud interactions (ACIs) are a leading source of uncertainty in estimates of the historical effective radiative forcing (ERF). One reason for this uncertainty is the difficulty in estimating the ERF from aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) in climate models, which typically requires multiple calls to the radiation code. Most commonly used methods also cannot disentangle the contributions from different processes to ERFaci. Here, we develop a new, computationally efficient method for estimating the shortwave (SW) ERFaci from liquid clouds using histograms of monthly averaged cloud fraction partitioned by cloud droplet effective radius (r e ) and liquid water path (LWP). Multiplying the histograms with SW cloud radiative kernels gives the total SW ERFaci from liquid clouds, which can be decomposed into contributions from the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and cloud fraction (CF) adjustments. We test the method with data from five CMIP6-era models, using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite instrument simulator to generate the histograms. Our method gives similar total SW ERFaci estimates to other established methods in regions of prevalent liquid cloud and indicates that the Twomey effect, LWP adjustments, and CF adjustments have contributed -0.34 ± 0.23, -0.22 ± 0.13, and -0.09 ± 0.11 W m -2 , respectively, to the effective radiative forcing of the climate since 1850 in the ensemble mean (95 % confidence). These results demonstrate that widespread adoption of a MODIS r e –LWP joint histogram diagnostic would allow the SW ERFaci and its components to be quickly and accurately diagnosed from climate model outputs, a crucial step for reducing uncertainty in the historical ERF.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?

Accurate prediction of future climate change hinges upon the ability of Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate clouds and their radiative effects. Even if an ESM can simulate the correct clouds, a systematic error in the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds (and, thus, cloud radiative effect) can exist if the clouds are simulated at the incorrect time of day. In this work, we develop an analytical model connecting diurnal cloud biases to emergent mean state radiative biases. With the use of satellite observations, we demonstrate that there are errors in the time of day that clouds are occurring in ESMs that would cause bias in shortwave cloud radiative effect (SWCRE) that is greater than 45% of the total SWCRE bias, but such errors in the cloud diurnal cycle are masked by other compensating errors, indicating that these ESMs are getting the right answer for the wrong reasons.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimation of the radiation budget during MOSAiC based on ground-based and satellite remote sensing observations

An accurate representation of the radiation budget is essential for investigating the impact of clouds on the climate system, especially in the Arctic, an environment highly sensitive to complex and rapid environmental changes. In this study, we analyse a unique dataset of observations from the central Arctic made during the MOSAiC (Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate) expedition in conjunction with state-of-the-art satellite products from CERES (Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System) to investigate the radiative effect of clouds and radiative closure at the surface and the top of the atmosphere (TOA). We perform a series of radiative transfer simulations using derived cloud macro- and microphysical properties as inputs to the simulations for the entire MOSAiC period, comparing our results to collocated satellite products and ice-floe observations. The radiative closure biases were generally within the instrumental uncertainty, indicating that the simulations are sufficiently accurate to reproduce the radiation budget during MOSAiC. Comparisons of the simulated radiation budget relative to CERES show similar values in the terrestrial flux but relatively large differences in the solar flux, which are attributed to a lower surface albedo and a possible underestimation of atmospheric opacity by CERES. While the simulation results were consistent with the observations, more detailed analyses reveal an overestimation of simulated cloud opacity for cases involving geometrically thick ice clouds. In the annual mean, we found that, during the MOSAiC expedition, the presence of clouds leads to a loss of 5.2 W m −2 of the atmosphere–surface system to space, while the surface gains 25.0 W m −2 and the atmosphere is cooled by 30.2 W m −2 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Meteorological drivers of the low-cloud radiative feedback pattern effect and its uncertainty

The radiative feedback pattern effect remains a large source of uncertainty for both projections of future trends and interpretations of past trends in global temperature. The pattern effect is defined as the difference in feedbacks between transient and long-term simulations, and past work shows that is primarily attributed to changes in the marine low-cloud radiative feedback. Here we use low cloud meteorological kernels to map out both the primary cloud controlling factors through which changing surface temperature patterns drive changes in low-cloud feedback, as well as the sources of model spread. We find that the pattern effect is almost entirely driven by changes in estimated inversion strength (EIS) in the Southern Hemisphere, particularly in the South East Pacific and Southern Ocean. In both past and future simulations, inter-model spread is primarily caused by model differences in the sensitivity of low clouds to the environmental conditions, rather than differences in the simulated evolution of environmental conditions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Droplet collection efficiencies inferred from satellite retrievals constrain effective radiative forcing of aerosol–cloud interactions

Abstract. Process-oriented observational constraints for the anthropogenic effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) are highly desirable because the uncertainty associated with ERFaci poses a significant challenge to climate prediction. The contoured frequency by optical depth diagram (CFODD) analysis supports the evaluation of model representation of cloud liquid-to-rain conversion processes because the slope of a CFODD, generated from joint MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-CloudSat cloud retrievals, provides an estimate of cloud droplet collection efficiency in single-layer warm liquid clouds. Here, we present an updated CFODD analysis as an observational constraint on the ERFaci due to warm rain processes and apply it to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). A series of sensitivity experiments shows that E3SMv2 droplet collection efficiencies and ERFaci are highly sensitive to autoconversion, i.e., the rate of mass transfer from cloud liquid to rain, yielding a strong correlation between the CFODD slope and the shortwave component of ERFaci (ERFaciSW; Pearson's R=-0.91). E3SMv2's CFODD slope (0.20 ± 0.04) is in agreement with observations (0.20 ± 0.03). The strong sensitivity of ERFaciSW to the CFODD slope provides a useful constraint on highly uncertain warm rain processes, whereby ERFaciSW, constrained by MODIS-CloudSat, is estimated by calculating the intercept of the linear association between the ERFaciSW and the CFODD slopes, using the MODIS-CloudSat CFODD slope as a reference.

Beall, Charlotte M. (ORCID:0000000311370835)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Prescribing the aerosol effective radiative forcing in the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model v1

Aerosol effective radiative forcing critically influences climate projections but remains poorly constrained. Using the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) v1 configuration, we assess the sensitivity of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenic aerosol changes using a simplified prescribed aerosol scheme (SPA) derived from E3SM v3. Nudged simulations at 3 and 12 km horizontal grid spacings reveal a more negative aerosol forcing than the reference 100 km E3SM v3 whence the SPA properties are derived. The resulting globally averaged aerosol forcing signal is largely due to aerosol–cloud interactions and exhibits little overall resolution sensitivity, while hints of resolution sensitivity appear regionally between the 3 and 12 km runs. While the default SPA scheme overestimates cloud droplet dependence on aerosols, parameterization adjustments in the activation process reconcile forcing estimates with the reference model. Our results demonstrate the ability to use a prescribed aerosol scheme to hold aerosol forcing to a desired strength across resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aitken Mode Aerosols Buffer Decoupled Mid‐Latitude Boundary Layer Clouds Against Precipitation Depletion

Aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions are a leading source of uncertainty in estimating climate sensitivity. Remote marine boundary layers where accumulation mode (~100–400 nm diameter) aerosol concentrations are relatively low are very susceptible to aerosol changes. These regions also experience heightened Aitken mode aerosol (~10–100 nm) concentrations associated with ocean biology. Aitken aerosols may significantly influence cloud properties and evolution by replenishing cloud condensation nuclei and droplet number lost through precipitation (i.e., Aitken buffering). We use a large-eddy simulation with an Aitken-mode enabled microphysics scheme to examine the role of Aitken buffering in a mid-latitude decoupled boundary layer cloud regime observed on 15 July 2017 during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic flight campaign: cumulus rising into stratocumulus under elevated Aitken concentrations (~100–200 mg -1 ). In situ measurements are used to constrain and evaluate this case study. Our simulation accurately captures observed aerosol-cloud-precipitation interactions and reveals time-evolving processes driving regime development and evolution. Aitken activation into the accumulation mode in the cumulus layer provides a reservoir for turbulence and convection to carry accumulation aerosols into the drizzling stratocumulus layer above. Further Aitken activation occurs aloft in the stratocumulus layer. Together, these activation events buffer this cloud regime against precipitation removal, reducing cloud break-up and associated increases in heterogeneity. We examine cloud evolution sensitivity to initial aerosol conditions. With halved accumulation number, Aitken aerosols restore accumulation concentrations, maintain droplet number similar to original values, and prevent cloud break-up. Without Aitken aerosols, precipitation-driven cloud break-up occurs rapidly. In this regime, Aitken buffering sustains brighter, more homogeneous clouds for longer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Pivotal Role of Cloud‐Planetary Boundary Layer Coupling to Explain Contrasting Aerosol‐Cloud Relationships

The radiative effect of aerosol on cloud albedo via altering cloud droplet effective radius (r e ) is a major uncertainty in the Earth's climate system. Remote sensing studies have reported either negative or positive relationships between re and aerosol number concentration (N a ) or other aerosol proxies. However, there are much fewer in situ observational evidences and physical explanation remains elusive for the contrasting N a -r e relationships. Here we quantify the N a -r e relationship by using in situ aircraft measurements, together with a re decomposition method. Our analysis reveals that the cloud-planetary boundary layer (PBL) coupling plays a pivotal role on the N a -r e relationship. Quantitative r e decomposition indicates that the contrasting N a -r e relationships in two cloud-PBL coupling regimes result from different balances of four distinct aspects. The widely recognized number effect may be outweighed by the joint effects of the remaining three that have been rarely investigated and largely ignored in N a -r e parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Clouds in GFDL's AM4.0 With Different Microphysical Parameterizations Using the Satellite Simulator Package COSP

We evaluate cloud simulations using satellite simulators against multiple observational data sets. These simulators have been run within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (AM4.0), as well as an alternative configuration where a fully two‐moment Morrison‐Gettelman cloud microphysical parameterization with prognostic precipitation (MG2) is applied, denoted as AM4‐MG2. The modeled cloud spatial distributions, vertical profiles, phase partitioning, cloud‐to‐precipitation transitions, and radiative effects compare reasonably well with satellite observations. Model biases include the under‐prediction of total and low‐level clouds, especially optically thin/intermediate clouds with cloud optical depth of less than 23, but the over‐prediction of thick clouds, indicating “too few, too bright” biases. These biases counteract each other, and give rise to reasonable estimates of cloud radiative effects. The underestimate of low‐level clouds is associated with too early and too frequent drizzle/precipitation formation. The precipitation bias is improved in AM4‐MG2, where the autoconversion scheme initiates the precipitation more realistically. There also exist discrepancies between models and observations for midlevel and high‐level clouds. Additional biases include the underestimate of liquid cloud fraction and the overestimate of ice cloud fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

The impact of cloud microphysics and ice nucleation on Southern Ocean clouds assessed with single-column modeling and instrument simulators

Abstract. Supercooled liquid clouds are common at higher latitudes (especially over the Southern Ocean) and are critical for constraining climate projections. We take advantage of the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) to perform an analysis of observed and simulated cloud processes over the Southern Ocean in a region and season dominated by supercooled liquid clouds. Using a single-column version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS), we compare two different cloud microphysical schemes to ground-based observations of cloud, precipitation, and radiation over a 2.5-month period (1 January–17 March 2017). Both schemes are able to reproduce aspects of the cloud and radiation observations during MICRE to within the uncertainty of the data when the thermodynamic profile is prescribed with relaxation. There are differences in water mass and representation of reflectivity between the schemes. A sensitivity study of the cloud microphysics schemes, one a bulk one-moment scheme and the other a two-moment scheme with prediction of mass and number, indicates that several key processes create differences between the schemes. Surface radiative fluxes and total water path are highly sensitive to the formation and fall speed of precipitation. The prediction of hydrometeor number with the two-moment scheme yields a better comparison with observed reflectivity and radiative fluxes, despite predicting higher liquid water contents than observed. With the two-moment scheme, we are also able to test the sensitivity of the results to the input of liquid cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN). The cloud properties and resulting radiative effects are found to be sensitive to the CCN and IN concentrations. More CCN and IN increase liquid and ice water paths, respectively. Thus, both the dynamic environment and aerosols, integrated through the cloud microphysics, are important for properly representing Southern Ocean cloud radiative effects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗