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At least 37 records · Page 2

Enhancing New York City's Resilience to Sea Level Rise and Increased Coastal Flooding

The large population and major economic assets along New York City's extensive waterfront face exposure to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal flooding. The New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC), an advisory group of academic and private-sector experts, provides the city with scientific guidance on future climate risks. Here we highlight current NPCC research on sea level rise, coastal flooding, with some of the City's current and planned responses.Twentieth century SLR in New York City (2.8 cm/decade) exceeded the global average (1.2-1.9 cm/decade), underscoring a greater regional risk. In 2015, the NPCC projected a 2080s SLR of 46-99 cm relative to 2000-2004 (25th -75th percentile) at the Battery, with high-end SLR estimates (90th percentile) of 1.9 m by 2100. Growing evidence of potential instability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) suggests the possibility of even higher future sea levels. We therefore present a new low probability, yet high impact SLR scenario for New York City, which incorporates these ice sheet instabilities. The new SLR projections will be combined with coastal flood return period curves for the 100-year storm flood levels. Related ongoing research examines changes in storm characteristics, surge--sea level rise interactions, and mapping of neighborhoods at risk.Guided by NPCC findings, New York City undertakes programs to strengthen coastal defenses, tailored to specific neighborhood needs. NPCC in collaboration with the city, continues to investigate vulnerability to extreme climate events, such as inland floods and coastal storms, and to develop stronger links with community-based stakeholder groups. New York City's plans to enhance coastal urban resiliency stand as a model for other urban coastal centers as they prepare for climate change.

Gornitz, Vivien↗

NASA Disasters Program: A Partner for Coastal Disaster Response, Resiliency, and Risk Reduction

Summary: The NASA Applied Sciences: Disasters Program has kicked off a pilot project as “Mid-Atlantic Resiliency Demonstration Study, Communities at Intensive Risk” in FY17 and FY18; Efforts focus on a holistic, interdisciplinary approach to integrate a full suite of capabilities from numerical weather prediction, tide and surge modeling at high spatial resolution and urban/neighborhood scales, and remote sensing capabilities for water detection and depth estimation; Future efforts - Partner with Federal Agencies, academia professional societies to complement and augment ongoing work using Earth observations unique to NASA - Translate hazards to risk in order to understand local and regional impacts and minimize vulnerability.

Bell, Jordan↗

Report on Coastal Structure Integrated Wave Energy Converters (CSI-WECs)

This report investigates a largely underexplored, and underexploited, application for wave energy: coastal structure integrated wave energy converters (CSI-WECs). These WEC types have significant potential to rapidly advance the wave energy industry while addressing the challenges of coastal community resiliency and marine energy integration and application, and the urgent need for increased coastal protection. To further support the value proposition investigation of this work, three wave energy developers agreed to conduct an energy production analysis of their technology for the four sites identified. Additionally, a geographic information system-based tool was developed that supports efficient and comprehensive site assessment for optimal and high-value deployments.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Use of NASA Satellite Data in Aiding Mississippi Barrier Island Restoration Projects

This presentation discusses a NASA Stennis Space Center project in which NASA-supported satellite and aerial data is being used to aid state and federal agencies in restoring the Mississippi barrier islands. Led by the Applied Science and Technology Project Office (ASTPO), this project will produce geospatial information products from multiple NASA-supported data sources, including Landsat, ASTER, and MODIS satellite data as well as ATLAS multispectral, CAMS multispectral, AVIRIS hyperspectral, EAARL, and other aerial data. Project objectives include the development and testing of a regional sediment transport model and the monitoring of barrier island restoration efforts through remote sensing. Barrier islands provide invaluable benefits to the State of Mississippi, including buffering the mainland from storm surge impacts, providing habitats for valuable wildlife and fisheries habitat, offering accessible recreational opportunities, and preserving natural environments for educating the public about coastal ecosystems and cultural resources. Unfortunately, these highly valued natural areas are prone to damage from hurricanes. For example, Hurricane Camille in 1969 split Ship Island into East and West Ship Island. Hurricane Georges in 1998 caused additional land loss for the two Ship Islands. More recently, Hurricanes Ivan, Katrina, Rita, Gustav, and Ike impacted the Mississippi barrier islands. In particular, Hurricane Katrina caused major damage to island vegetation and landforms, killing island forest overstories, overwashing entire islands, and causing widespread erosion. In response, multiple state and federal agencies are working to restore damaged components of these barrier islands. Much of this work is being implemented through federally funded Coastal Impact Assessment and Mississippi Coastal Improvement programs. One restoration component involves the reestablishment of the island footprints to that in 1969. Our project will employ NASA remote sensing data and products to support these federally funded efforts on multiple fronts. Landsat and ASTER data is being analyzed to assess changes in barrier island land cover over the last 35 years. ASTER, SRTM, and EAARL terrain products and other NASA airborne imagery are being applied in assessing changes in barrier island geomorphology and geospatial extent. MODIS data is being examined as a tool for sediment transport modeling by supplying geospatial data that quantifies in-water sediment concentrations. MODIS satellite data is being assessed for monitoring changes in the spatial extent of individual barrier islands. Results thus far indicate that NASA data products are useful in assessing barrier island conditions and changes. This value is enhanced with additional historical geospatial data, commercial high resolution satellite data, other non-NASA aerial imagery, and field survey data. The project s products are relevant to the Gulf of Mexico Alliance priority issues, including coastal habitat conservation, restoration and coastal community resilience. Such products will be available to state and federal agencies involved with coastal restoration. Potential end-users of these products include the National Park Service, U.S. Geological Survey, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Environmental Protection Agency, Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality, and Mississippi Department of Marine Resources.

Giardino, Marco↗

A multi-algorithm approach for modeling coastal wetland eco-geomorphology

Coastal wetlands play an important role in the global water and biogeochemical cycles. Climate change makes it more difficult for these ecosystems to adapt to the fluctuation in sea levels and other environmental changes. Given the importance of eco-geomorphological processes for coastal wetland resilience, many eco-geomorphology models differing in complexity and numerical schemes have been developed in recent decades. However, their divergent estimates of the response of coastal wetlands to climate change indicate that substantial structural uncertainties exist in these models. To investigate the structural uncertainty of coastal wetland eco-geomorphology models, we developed a multi-algorithm model framework of eco-geomorphological processes, such as mineral accretion and organic matter accretion, within a single hydrodynamics model. The framework is designed to explore possible ways to represent coastal wetland eco-geomorphology in Earth system models and reduce the related uncertainties in global applications. We tested this model framework at three representative coastal wetland sites: two saltmarsh wetlands (Venice Lagoon and Plum Island Estuary) and a mangrove wetland (Hunter Estuary). Through the model–data comparison, we showed the importance of using a multi-algorithm ensemble approach for more robust predictions of the evolution of coastal wetlands. We also found that more observations of mineral and organic matter accretion at different elevations of coastal wetlands and evaluation of the coastal wetland models at different sites in diverse environments can help reduce the model uncertainty.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the resilience benefits of marine energy in microgrids

Marine energy resources could promote clean energy and resilience of coastal and island microgrids, and thus, these applications are a key future market for marine energy development. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper illustrates how inclusion of wave resources into energy resilience solutions can improve overall grid efficiency and sustainability, as well as maintain electricity supply during grid outages. The paper describes a case study evaluation of the potential to add wave energy to the Moloka'i grid as Hawaii strives to meet a 100% clean energy target. The Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience tool is used to simulate operation in off-grid conditions and size different combinations of wave, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, storage, and fuel resources required to meet resilience objectives. This research investigates how including wave resources in a microgrid contributes to reducing or eliminating biofuel generation, producing a zero-greenhouse gas emission profile in the latter case, and avoiding the over-sizing of PV and battery systems to accommodate periods of unavailability or high demand. Insight from this paper supports the value proposition of wave resources for future markets and informs the relationship between marine generators and microgrids or isolated grids.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Evaluating the resilience benefits of marine energy in microgrids

Marine energy resources could promote clean energy and resilience of coastal and island microgrids, and thus, these applications are a key future market for marine energy development. To demonstrate these benefits, this paper illustrates how inclusion of wave resources into energy resilience solutions can improve overall grid efficiency and sustainability, as well as maintain electricity supply during grid outages. The paper describes a case study evaluation of the potential to add wave energy to the Moloka’i grid as Hawaii strives to meet a 100% clean energy target. The Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience tool is used to simulate operation in off- grid conditions and size different combinations of wave, solar photovoltaic (PV), wind, storage, and fuel resources required to meet resilience objectives. This research in- vestigates how including wave resources in a microgrid contributes to reducing biofuel generation, producing a zero-greenhouse gas emission profile, and avoiding the over-sizing of PV and battery systems to accommodate periods of unavailability or high demand. Insight from this paper supports the value proposition of wave resources for future markets and informs the relationship between marine generators and microgrids or isolated grids.

Newman, Sarah F.↗

Unlocking America's Abundant Marine Energy Resources

NREL Marine Energy One-Pager: A resource designed for use during NREL campus visits - especially with high-profile guests - as well as at events in Washington, D.C., when engaging with the new administration, and for displays at WPTO or lab booths. The U.S. holds vast untapped marine energy resources - wave, tidal, river, and ocean currents - that can strengthen grid resilience, support coastal communities, and advance energy independence. NREL leads innovation in this space through advanced modeling tools, patented technologies, and world-class testing facilities. NREL's simulation platforms, like OpenFAST and SAM, help reduce development time and risk. Patented devices such as PKelp and FlexWEC demonstrate flexible, resilient approaches to energy capture. At Flatirons Campus, NREL offers motion simulation, structural testing, wave tanks, and megawatt-scale microgrid emulation via the ARIES platform. These capabilities help developers refine and validate devices before in-water trials. With upcoming open-water testing at PacWave and strong partnerships, NREL is accelerating the path to commercialization - positioning the U.S. as a global leader in marine energy innovation.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Attaining freshwater and estuarine-water soil saturation in an ecosystem-scale coastal flooding experiment

Abstract Coastal upland forests are facing widespread mortality as sea-level rise accelerates and precipitation and storm regimes change. The loss of coastal forests has significant implications for the coastal carbon cycle; yet, predicting mortality likelihood is difficult due to our limited understanding of disturbance impacts on coastal forests. The manipulative, ecosystem-scale Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m 2 ), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Transient saturation (5 h) of the entire soil rooting zone (0–30 cm) across a 2000 m 2 coastal forest was attained by delivering 300 m 3 of water through a spatially distributed irrigation network at a rate just above the soil infiltration rate. Our water delivery approach also elevated the water table (typically ~ 2 m belowground) and achieved extensive, low-level inundation (~ 8 cm standing water). A TEMPEST simulation approximated a 15-cm rainfall event and based on historic records, was of comparable intensity to a 10-year storm for the area. This characterization was supported by showing that Hurricane Ida’s (~ 5 cm rainfall) hydrologic impacts were shorter (40% lower duration) and less expansive (80% less coverage) than those generated through experimental manipulation. Future work will apply TEMPEST treatments to evaluate coastal forest resilience to changing hydrologic disturbance regimes and identify conditions that initiate ecosystem state transitions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Long-term drought promotes invasive species by reducing wildfire severity

Anthropogenic climate change has increased the frequency of drought, wildfire, and invasions of non-native species. Although high-severity fires linked to drought can inhibit recovery of native vegetation in forested ecosystems, it remains unclear how drought impacts the recovery of other plant communities following wildfire. We leveraged an existing rainfall manipulation experiment to test the hypothesis that reduced precipitation, fuel load, and fire severity convert plant community composition from native shrubs to invasive grasses in a Southern California coastal sage scrub system. We measured community composition before and after the 2020 Silverado wildfire in plots with three rainfall treatments. Drought reduced fuel load and vegetation cover, which reduced fire severity. Native shrubs had greater prefire cover in added water plots compared to reduced water plots. Native cover was lower and invasive cover was higher in postfire reduced water plots compared to postfire added and ambient water plots. Our results demonstrate the importance of fuel load on fire severity and plant community composition on an ecosystem scale. Management should focus on reducing fire frequency and removing invasive species to maintain the resilience of coastal sage scrub communities facing drought. In these communities, controlled burns are not recommended as they promote invasive plants.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Research and Development Pathways for Powering the Blue Economy with Marine Renewable Energy

As marine renewable energy technology is adapted or designed for Blue Economy end-uses, challenges unique to operation at sea and in remote coastal areas must be addressed to meet demands distinct from utility grid electricity generation. Foundational research and development with this end goal is conducted to broadly enable the initiative of Powering the Blue Economy. Determination of distinct R&D topics is informed by pathways including an engineering design customer-driven approach and feedback from the creation and administration of prize competitions in the Blue Economy technology space. Critical research outcomes, such as determining the performance of small wave energy converters and benchmarking the reliability for power systems at sea, are among the goals of ten foundational R&D projects currently underway.

customer discovery↗

Short-term experimental flooding impacts soil biogeochemistry but not aboveground vegetation in a coastal forest

Rising sea levels and intensifying storms increase flooding pressure on coastal forests, triggering tree mortality, ecosystem transitions, and changes to the coastal carbon cycle. However, the mechanisms that drive coastal forest mortality remain elusive due to the complex interplay between belowground and aboveground processes during flooding disturbances and limitations of observations typically reported in coastal forest mortality studies. We used an ecosystem-scale manipulation to simulate hurricane-level flooding of a coastal forest and explore the individual and interactive impacts of inundation and salinity. Monitoring real-time soil conditions and tree physiological responses, we observed consistent impacts on soil biogeochemistry aligned with belowground drivers of tree mortality, but no consistent responses in aboveground vegetation immediately following flooding. Our findings provide empirically based insight into the earliest stages of a hypothesized forest mortality spiral and offer critical benchmarks for predicting coastal forest resilience in the face of accelerating climate change.

coastal forests↗

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

Hydrological Control on Soil Redox Condition and Carbon Loss of Coastal Wetland Under Sea-Level Rise

Coastal wetlands are critical carbon sinks with their biogeochemical and ecological functioning shaped by dynamic hydrological conditions that are increasingly influenced by climate change. A key unresolved question is how hydrologic flow, vegetation response, and rising sea levels interact to regulate soil redox condition and carbon loss in coastal wetlands. Using a field-tested hydrological–biogeochemical–ecological modeling framework, we reveal how the interplay between terrestrial groundwater discharge and tidal fluctuations generates complex groundwater flow patterns at the terrestrial–aquatic interface, and how these patterns modulate soil redox conditions, in turn influencing soil organic matter decomposition and carbon loss. Notably, rising sea levels suppress soil CO2 emissions while reducing lateral dissolved carbon losses, thereby enhancing litter carbon sequestration under anoxic conditions. As vegetation responds to sea-level rise and carbon inputs diminish, litter carbon subsequently declines. These findings underscore a critical hydrological control on carbon cycling, advancing our understanding of coastal ecosystem resilience in a warming world.

Chen, Kewei [ORNL] (ORCID:000000032580514X)↗

Accelerated sea-level rise is suppressing CO 2 stimulation of tidal marsh productivity: A 33-year study

Accelerating relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is threatening coastal wetlands. However, rising CO 2 concentrations may also stimulate carbon sequestration and vertical accretion, counterbalancing RSLR. A coastal wetland dominated by a C 3 plant species was exposed to ambient and elevated levels of CO 2 in situ from 1987 to 2019 during which time ambient CO 2 concentration increased 18% and sea level rose 23 cm. Plant production did not increase in response to gradually rising ambient CO 2 concentration during this period. Elevated CO 2 increased shoot production relative to ambient CO 2 for the first two decades, but from 2005 to 2019, elevated CO 2 stimulation of production was diminished. The decline coincided with increases in relative sea level above a threshold that hindered root productivity. While elevated CO 2 stimulation of elevation gain has the potential to moderate the negative impacts of RSLR on tidal wetland productivity, benefits for coastal wetland resilience will diminish in the long term as rates of RSLR accelerate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrated Renewable Energy Systems

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates the Department of Energy’s (DOE) only dedicated marine laboratory at the PNNL-Sequim campus. PNNL is leading research in the blue economy and marine energy applications and building collaboration between DOE and multiple partners in the state of Washington and beyond. With Washington State support, the Integrated Renewable Energy System (IRES) demonstration testbed proposed here will advance research by developing and testing renewable energy production, management, and use for multiple marine applications (e.g., ocean observations, underwater vehicles, aquaculture). It will also advance energy resiliency for coastal communities by developing an integrated renewable energy test platform that will model how multiple renewable energy resources could power shoreline businesses or communities (Figure 1). The test bed will demonstrate how different renewable systems can be integrated to reduce carbon emissions and contribute to a net zero emissions site and provide lessons, controls, and protocols that will help to expand energy options for shoreline and maritime businesses. The integrated system is expected to serve as a test bed for shoreline power and ocean energy technologies for years to come.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC) System: Resource Assessment and Techno-Economic Evaluation in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico's hot, humid climate drives a high and persistent demand for cooling, straining an aging and fuel-dependent energy grid while increasing peak electricity loads. Much of this challenge stems from inefficient air-conditioning systems operating in buildings without passive cooling design, making cooling both costly and vulnerable to disruption - especially during hurricanes. To address these issues, researchers evaluated a new alternative called Geologic Seawater Air Conditioning (GeoSWAC), which uses inland wells connected to naturally cold, deep seawater. By avoiding long offshore pipelines and energy-intensive refrigeration cycles, GeoSWAC can cut electricity use by 75-90%, reduce environmental impacts, and operate more reliably during power outages. A case study at the University of Puerto Rico's Rio Piedras campus found that GeoSWAC could deliver significantly lower levelized costs of cooling, reduced operational expenses, and improved water conservation compared to the campus's existing chilled-water plant. The system offers key advantages - including access to a constant cold heat sink, low pumping requirements, and enhanced resilience - for coastal regions such as Puerto Rico, the broader Caribbean, and Florida. However, its effectiveness depends heavily on site-specific geological conditions, such as subsurface connectivity and aquifer characteristics, which require detailed investigation. Future research should refine hydrogeological models, conduct performance and economic analyses, and address regulatory and permitting frameworks to support broader adoption of this promising technology.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Achieving Sustainability Goals for Urban Coasts in the US Northeast: Research Needs and Challenges

In the wake of Hurricane Sandy and other recent extreme events, urban coastal communities in the northeast region of the United States are beginning or stepping up efforts to integrate climate adaptation and resilience into long-term coastal planning. Natural and nature-based shoreline strategies have emerged as essential components of coastal resilience and are frequently cited by practitioners, scientists, and the public for the wide range of ecosystem services they can provide. However, there is limited quantitative information associating particular urban shoreline design strategies with specific levels of ecosystem service provision, and research on this issue is not always aligned with decision context and decision-maker needs. Engagement between the research community, local government officials and sustainability practitioners, and the non-profit and private sectors can help bridge these gaps. A workshop to bring together these groups discussed research gaps and challenges in integrating ecosystem services into urban sustainability planning in the urban northeast corridor. Many themes surfaced repeatedly throughout workshop deliberations, including the challenges associated with ecosystem service valuation, the transferability of research and case studies within and outside the region, and the opportunity for urban coastal areas to be a focal point for education and outreach efforts related to ecosystem services.

urban coasts↗