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Origin and Evolution of Short-period Comets

Comets are icy objects that orbitally evolve from the trans-Neptunian region into the inner solar system, where they are heated by solar radiation and become active due to the sublimation of water ice. Here we perform simulations in which cometary reservoirs are formed in the early solar system and evolved over 4.5 Gyr. The gravitational effects of Planet 9 (P9) are included in some simulations. Different models are considered for comets to be active, including a simple assumption that comets remain active for N{sub p}(q) perihelion passages with perihelion distance q<2.5 au. The orbital distribution and number of active comets produced in our model is compared to observations. The orbital distribution of ecliptic comets (ECs) is well reproduced in models with N{sub p}(2.5)≃500 and without P9. With P9, the inclination distribution of model ECs is wider than the observed one. We find that the known Halley-type comets (HTCs) have a nearly isotropic inclination distribution. The HTCs appear to be an extension of the population of returning Oort-cloud comets (OCCs) to shorter orbital periods. The inclination distribution of model HTCs becomes broader with increasing N{sub p}, but the existing data are not good enough to constrain N{sub p} from orbital fits. N{sub p}(2.5)>1000 is required to obtain a steady-state population of large active HTCs that is consistent with observations. To fit the ratio of the returning-to-new OCCs, by contrast, our model implies that N{sub p}(2.5)≲10, possibly because the detected long-period comets are smaller and much easier to disrupt than observed HTCs.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Water production in comets C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS) and C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) from observations with Soho/Swan

Comets C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS) and C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) were observed throughout their 2012-2013 apparitions with the Solar Wind Anisotropies (SWAN) all-sky hydrogen Lyα camera on board the Solar and Heliosphere Observatory (SOHO) satellite. SOHO has been in a halo orbit around the L1 Earth-Sun Lagrange point since early 1996 and has been observing the interplanetary medium and comets beginning with C/1996 B2 (Hyakutake). The global water production from these comets was determined from an analysis of the SWAN Lyα camera observations. Comet C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS), which reached its perihelion distance of 0.302 AU on 2013 March 10.17, was observed on 50 days between 2013 January 29 and April 30. Comet C/2012 F6 (Lemmon), which reached its perihelion distance of 0.731 AU on 2013 March 24.51, was observed on 109 days between 2012 November 29 and 2013 June 31. The maximum water production rates were ∼1 × 10{sup 30} molecules s{sup –1} for both comets. The activities of both comets were asymmetric about perihelion. C/2011 L4 (PanSTARRS) was more active before perihelion than after, but C/2012 F6 (Lemmon) was more active after perihelion than before.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

EVIDENCE FOR FRESH FROST LAYER ON THE BARE NUCLEUS OF COMET HALE-BOPP AT 32 AU DISTANCE

Here, we report that the activity of comet Hale-Bopp ceased between late 2007 and 2009 March, at about 28 AU distance from the Sun. At that time, the comet resided at a distance from the Sun that exceeded the freeze-out distance of regular comets by an order of magnitude. A Herschel Space Observatory PACS scan was taken in mid-2010, in the already inactive state of the nucleus. The albedo has been found to be surprisingly large (8.1% {+-} 0.9%), which exceeds the value known for any other comets. With re-reduction of archive Hubble Space Telescope images from 1995 and 1996, we confirm that the pre-perihelion albedo resembled that of an ordinary comet and was smaller by a factor of two than the post-activity albedo. Our further observations with the Very Large Telescope also confirmed that the albedo increased significantly by the end of the activity. We explain these observations by proposing gravitational redeposition of icy grains toward the end of the activity. This is plausible for such a massive body in a cold environment, where gas velocity is lowered to the range of the escape velocity. These observations also show that giant comets are not just the upscaled versions of the comets we know but can be affected by processes that are yet to be fully identified.

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Multi-fluid model of a sun-grazing comet in the rapidly ionizing, magnetized low corona

Two Sun-grazing comets were recently imaged in the low solar corona by space telescopes in unprecedented detail, revealing a wide range of new phenomena. This sparked growing interest in the interaction of comets with the coronal plasma and magnetic field and their diagnostic potential as solar probes. However, interpretation of such rich observational data requires profound understanding of relevant physical processes in an unexplored regime. Here advanced numerical modeling can provide critical clues. To this end, we present a prototype, multi-fluid, magnetohydrodynamic model of a steady-state comet in the low solar corona. These simulation results are compared with previously modeled comets in the solar wind environment. By inspecting their projection and column densities, we find a dominance of O{sup 6+} ions in the cometary tail, which can explain the observed extreme ultraviolet emission. The tail is found to be comparable to recent EUV images of these comets. In addition, the comet tail appears wider when the observer's line of sight is perpendicular rather than parallel to the local magnetic field. This is opposite to the trend in the interplanetary space permeated in the solar wind, because the ratio between dynamic pressure and magnetic pressure is an order of magnitude smaller than at 1 AU. On the other hand, we find that iron ions in the comet head build up to a density comparable to that of oxygen ions, but are unlikely to form a visible tail because of the shorter mean free paths of the neutrals.

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IMAGING OBSERVATIONS OF THE HYDROGEN COMA OF COMET 67P/CHURYUMOV–GERASIMENKO IN 2015 SEPTEMBER BY THE PROCYON/LAICA

The water production rate of a comet is one of the fundamental parameters necessary to understand cometary activity when a comet approaches the Sun within 2.5 au, because water is the most abundant icy material in the cometary nucleus. Wide-field imaging observations of the hydrogen Lyα emission in comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko were performed by the Lyman Alpha Imaging Camera (LAICA) on board the 50 kg class micro spacecraft, the Proximate Object Close Flyby with Optical Navigation (PROCYON), on UT 2015 September 7.40, 12.37, and 13.17 (corresponding to 25.31, 30.28, and 31.08 days after the perihelion passage of the comet, respectively). We derive the water production rates, Q{sub H{sub 2O}}, of the comet from Lyα images of the comet by using a 2D axi-symmetric Direct Simulation Monte-Carlo model of the atomic hydrogen coma; (1.46 ± 0.47) × 10{sup 28}, (1.24 ± 0.40) × 10{sup 28}, and (1.30 ± 0.42) × 10{sup 28} molecules s{sup −1} on 7.40, 12.37, and 13.17 September, respectively. These values are comparable to the values from in situ measurements by the Rosetta instruments in the 2015 apparition and the ground-based and space observations during the past apparitions. The comet did not show significant secular change in average water production rates just after the perihelion passage for the apparitions from 1982 to 2015. We emphasize that the measurements of absolute Q{sub H{sub 2O}} based on the wide field of view (e.g., by the LAICA/PROCYON) are so important to judge the soundness of the coma models used to infer Q{sub H{sub 2O}} based on in situ measurements by spacecraft, like the Rosetta.

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Finding Long Lost Lexell's Comet: The Fate of the First Discovered Near-Earth Object

Jupiter-family Comet D/1770 L1 (Lexell) was the first discovered Near-Earth Object (NEO) and passed the Earth on 1770 July 1 at a recorded distance of 0.015 au. The comet was subsequently lost due to unfavorable observing circumstances during its next apparition followed by a close encounter with Jupiter in 1779. Since then, the fate of D/Lexell has attracted interest from the scientific community, and now we revisit this long-standing question. We investigate the dynamical evolution of D/Lexell based on a set of orbits recalculated using the observations made by Charles Messier, the comet’s discoverer, and find that there is a 98% chance that D/Lexell remains in the solar system by the year of 2000. This finding remains valid even if a moderate non-gravitational effect is imposed. Messier’s observations also suggest that the comet is one of the largest known near-Earth comets, with a nucleus of ≳10 km in diameter. This implies that the comet should have been detected by contemporary NEO surveys regardless of its activity level if it has remained in the inner solar system. We identify asteroid 2010 JL{sub 33} as a possible descendant of D/Lexell, with a 0.8% probability of chance alignment, but a direct orbital linkage of the two bodies has not been successfully accomplished. We also use the recalculated orbit to investigate the meteors potentially originating from D/Lexell. While no associated meteors have been unambiguously detected, we show that meteor observations can be used to better constrain the orbit of D/Lexell despite the comet being long lost.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

C/2010 U3 (Boattini): A Bizarre Comet Active at Record Heliocentric Distance

We present a photometric and dynamical study of comet C/2010 U3 (Boattini), which was seen active in prediscovery data as early as 2005 November at a new inbound record heliocentric distance of r {sub H} = 25.8 au. Two outburst events around 2009 and 2017 were observed. The coma and tail of the comet consist of dust grains of ~10 μm in radius, ejected protractedly at speeds ≲50 m s{sup -1} near the subsolar point, and are subjected to the Lorentz force, solar gravitation, and radiation pressure force all together. The prolonged activity indicates that sublimation of supervolatiles (e.g., CO, CO{sub 2}) is at play, causing a net mass-loss rate ≳1 kg s{sup -1}. To sustain the mass loss, the nucleus radius has to be ≳0.1 km. The color of the cometary dust, similar to other long-period comets, is redder than the solar colors, but we also observed potential color variations when the comet was at 10 < r {sub H} < 15 au, concurrent with the onset of crystallization of amorphous water ice, if at all. Using publicly available and our refined astrometric measurements, we estimated the precise trajectory of the comet and propagated it backward to its previous perihelion. We found that the comet visited the planetary region 1.96 ± 0.04 Myr ago, with barycentric perihelion distance q = 8.364 ± 0.004 au. Thus, C/2010 U3 (Boattini) is almost certainly a dynamically old comet from the Oort cloud, and the observed activity cannot be caused by retained heat from the previous apparition.

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Orbital Deflection of Comets by Directed Energy

Cometary impacts pose a long-term hazard to life on Earth. Impact mitigation techniques have been studied extensively, but they tend to focus on asteroid diversion. Typical asteroid interdiction schemes involve spacecraft physically intercepting the target, a task feasible only for targets identified decades in advance and in a narrow range of orbits—criteria unlikely to be satisfied by a threatening comet. Comets, however, are naturally perturbed from purely gravitational trajectories via solar heating of their surfaces, which activates sublimation-driven jets. Artificial heating of a comet, such as by a laser, may supplement natural heating by the Sun to purposefully manipulate its path and thereby avoid an impact. Deflection effectiveness depends on the comet’s heating response, which varies dramatically depending on factors including nucleus size, orbit, and dynamical history. These factors are incorporated into a numerical orbital model to assess the effectiveness and feasibility of using high-powered laser arrays in Earth orbit and on the ground for comet deflection. Simulation results suggest that a diffraction-limited 500 m orbital or terrestrial laser array operating at 10 GW for 1% of each day over 1 yr is sufficient to fully avert the impact of a typical 500 m diameter comet with primary nongravitational parameter A {sub 1} = 2 × 10{sup −8} au day{sup −2}. Strategies to avoid comet fragmentation during deflection are also discussed.

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Lyα Observations of Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) Using MAVEN IUVS Echelle

The close approach of comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) to Mars in 2014 October provided a unique opportunity to observe a dynamically new Oort cloud comet with potential for interaction with a planet’s atmosphere. The water-originating hydrogen coma of the comet extended to over 20 million km from the nucleus. Determining the properties of this coma contributes to characterizing the comet’s water content and production rate. The present study analyzes a unique data set of high spectral resolution UV observations of comet C/2013 A1 Siding Spring measured by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution spacecraft. The Siding Spring observations capture Lyα emissions from the Martian corona, the interplanetary medium, as well as the cometary H and D reservoirs. The isolated cometary spectra are analyzed to reveal a velocity distribution of H atoms that are consistent with model estimates of H{sub 2}O photodissociated H emissions and of OH photodissociated H emissions, Doppler shifted from the main comet H emission line center by 18 km s{sup −1} and 8 km s{sup −1}, respectively. The variations in comet H brightness with distance from the nucleus are used to constrain cometary water production to a rate of 0.5 × 10{sup 28} molecules s{sup −1} at a time when Siding Spring was at 1.5 au, pre-perihelion.

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Whole-core comet solutions to a 3-dimensional PWR benchmark problem with gadolinium

A pressurized water reactor (PWR) benchmark problem with gadolinium was used to determine the accuracy and computational efficiency of the coarse mesh radiation transport method COMET. The benchmark problem contains 193 square fuel assemblies. The COMET solution (eigenvalue, assembly averaged and fuel pin averaged fission density distributions) was compared with those obtained from the corresponding Monte Carlo reference solution using the same 2-group material cross section library. The comparison showed that both the core eigenvalue and fission density distribution averaged over each assembly and fuel pin predicated by COMET agree very well with the corresponding MCNP reference solution if the incident flux response expansion used in COMET is truncated at 2nd order in the two spatial and the two angular variables. The benchmark calculations indicate that COMET has Monte Carlo accuracy. In, particular, the eigenvalue difference between the codes ranged from 17 pcm to 35 pcm, being within 2 standard deviations of the calculational uncertainty. The mean flux weighted relative differences in the assembly and fuel pin fission densities were 0.47% and 0.65%, respectively. It was also found that COMET's full (whole) core computational speed is 30,000 times faster than MCNP in which only 1/8 of the core is modeled. It is estimated that COMET would have been about over 6 orders of magnitude faster than MCNP if the full core were also modeled in MCNP. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DISAPPEARANCE OF COMET C/2010 X1 (ELENIN): GONE WITH A WHIMPER, NOT A BANG

We examine the rise and sudden demise of comet C/2010 X1 (Elenin) on its approach to perihelion. Discovered inbound at 4.2 AU, this long-period comet was predicted to become very bright when near perihelion, at 0.48 AU on 2011 September 10. Observations starting 2011 February (heliocentric distance ∼3.5 AU) indeed show the comet to brighten by about 11 mag, with most of the increase occurring inside 1 AU from the Sun. The peak brightness reached m{sub R} = 6 on UT 2011 August 12.95 ± 0.50, when at ∼0.83 AU from the Sun. Thereafter, the comet faded even as the heliocentric distance continued to decrease. We find that most of the surge in brightness in mid-August resulted from dust-particle forward scattering, not from a sudden increase in the activity. A much smaller (∼3 mag) brightening began on UT 2011 August 18 ± 1 (heliocentric distance 0.74 AU), reached a maximum on UT 2011 August 30 ± 1 (at 0.56 AU), and reflects the true breakup of the nucleus. This second peak was matched by a change in the morphology from centrally condensed to diffuse. The estimated cross section of the nucleus when at 1 AU inbound was ∼1 km{sup 2}, corresponding to an equal-area circle of radius 0.6 km. Observations were taken after the second peak using the Canada–France–Hawaii 3.6 m telescope to search for surviving fragments of the nucleus. None were found to a limiting red magnitude r′ = 24.4, corresponding to radii ≲40 m (red geometric albedo = 0.04 assumed). The brightening, the progressive elongation of the debris cloud, and the absence of a central condensation in data taken after UT 2011 August 30 are consistent with disintegration of the nucleus into a power law size distribution of fragments with index q = 3.3 ± 0.2 combined with the action of radiation pressure. In such a distribution, the largest particles contain most of the mass while the smallest particles dominate the scattering cross section and apparent brightness. We speculate about physical processes that might cause nucleus disruption in a comet when still 0.7 AU from the Sun. Tidal stresses and devolatilization of the nucleus by sublimation are both negligible at this distance. However, the torque caused by mass loss, even at the very low rates measured in comet Elenin, is potentially large enough to be responsible by driving the nucleus to rotational instability.

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An early look of comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring): Breathtaker or nightmare?

The dynamically new comet, C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring), is to make a close approach to Mars on 2014 October 19 at 18:30 UT at a distance of 40 ± 1 Martian radii. Such an extremely rare event offers a precious opportunity for the spacecrafts on Mars to closely study a dynamically new comet itself as well as the planet-comet interaction. Meanwhile, the high-speed meteoroids released from C/Siding Spring also pose a threat to physically damage the spacecrafts. Here we present our observations and modeling results of C/Siding Spring to characterize the comet and assess the risk posed to the spacecrafts on Mars. We find that the optical tail of C/Siding Spring is dominated by larger particles at the time of the observation. Synchrone simulation suggests that the comet was already active in late 2012 when it was more than 7 AU from the Sun. By parameterizing the dust activity with a semi-analytic model, we find that the ejection speed of C/Siding Spring is comparable to comets such as the target of the Rosetta mission, 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. Under a nominal situation, the simulated dust cone will miss the planet by about 20 Martian radii. At the extreme ends of uncertainties, the simulated dust cone will engulf Mars, but the meteoric influx at Mars is still comparable to the nominal sporadic influx, seemly indicating that an intense and enduring meteoroid bombardment due to C/Siding Spring is unlikely. Further simulation also suggests that gravitational disruption of the dust tail may be significant enough to be observable at Earth.

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Physical properties of asteroids in comet-like orbits in infrared asteroid survey catalogs

We investigated the population of asteroids in comet-like orbits using available asteroid size and albedo catalogs of data taken with the Infrared Astronomical Satellite, AKARI, and the Wide-field Infrared Survey Explorer on the basis of their orbital properties (i.e., the Tisserand parameter with respect to Jupiter, T{sub J}, and the aphelion distance, Q). We found that (1) there are 123 asteroids in comet-like orbits by our criteria (i.e., Q > 4.5 AU and T{sub J} < 3), (2) 80% of them have low albedo, p{sub v} < 0.1, consistent with comet nuclei, (3) the low-albedo objects among them have a size distribution shallower than that of active comet nuclei, that is, the power index of the cumulative size distribution is around 1.1, and (4) unexpectedly, a considerable number (i.e., 25 by our criteria) of asteroids in comet-like orbits have high albedo, p{sub v} > 0.1. We noticed that such high-albedo objects mostly consist of small (D < 3 km) bodies distributed in near-Earth space (with perihelion distance of q < 1.3 AU). We suggest that such high-albedo, small objects were susceptible to the Yarkovsky effect and drifted into comet-like orbits via chaotic resonances with planets.

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The global morphology of the solar wind interaction with comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko

The forthcoming Rosetta-Philae mission to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko provides a novel opportunity to observe the variable nature of the solar wind interaction with a comet over an extended range of heliocentric distance. We use a simple analytical one-dimensional MHD model to estimate the sizes of the two most prominent features in the global structure of the solar wind interaction with a comet. When the heliocentric distance of the comet reaches d ≤ 1.51 AU, we expect a sharp shock to be observed, whose size would increase monotonically as the comet approaches the Sun, reaching a value ≅ 15, 000 km at perihelion (d ≅ 1.29 AU). Upstream of the shock, we expect the velocity-space distribution of the picked up cometary ions to be essentially gyrotropic. A well-defined ionopause is predicted when d ≤1.61 AU, though its size is expected to be only ≅25 km at perihelion, and it is expected to be susceptible to the 'flute' instability due to its small size. Consequently, we expect the magnetic field to penetrate all the way to the surface of the nucleus. We conclude with a brief discussion of the response of the comet's plasma environment to fast temporal variations in the solar wind.

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MULTI-WAVELENGTH OBSERVATIONS OF COMET C/2011 L4 (PAN-STARRS)

The dynamically new comet C/2011 L4 (Pan-STARRS) is one of the brightest comets observed since the great comet C/1995 O1 (Hale-Bopp). Here, we present our multi-wavelength observations of C/2011 L4 during its in-bound passage to the inner solar system. A strong absorption band of water ice at 2.0 μm was detected in the near-infrared spectra, obtained with the 8 m Gemini-North and 3 m Infrared Telescope Facility Telescopes. The companion 1.5 μm band of water ice, however, was not observed. Spectral modeling shows that the absence of the 1.5 μm feature can be explained by the presence of sub-micron-sized fine ice grains. No gas lines (i.e., CN, HCN, or CO) were observed pre-perihelion in either the optical or the submillimeter. We derived 3σ upper limits for the CN and CO production rates. The comet exhibited a very strong continuum in the optical and its slope seemed to become redder as the comet approached the Sun. Our observations suggest that C/2011 L4 is an unusually dust-rich comet with a dust-to-gas mass ratio >4.

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THE INNER COMA OF COMET C/2012 S1 (ISON) AT 0.53 AU AND 0.35 AU FROM THE SUN

Using long-slit spectroscopy at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility, we extracted H{sub 2}O production rates and spatial profiles of gas rotational temperature and molecular column abundance in comet C/2012 S1 ISON, observed at heliocentric distances of 0.53 and 0.35 AU. These measurements uniquely probed the physical environment in the inner collisional coma of this comet during its first (and last) approach to the Sun since being emplaced in the Oort Cloud some 4.5 billion years ago. Our observations revealed a comet evolving on various timescales, both over hours and days. At 0.35 AU, ISON showed a considerable decrease in water production rate in less than 2 hr, likely declining from a major outburst. Our measured temperature spatial distributions reflect the competition between the processes that cause heating and cooling in the coma, and also provide insight about the prevalent mechanism(s) of releasing gas-phase H{sub 2}O. The observed temperatures suggest that the comet was likely ejecting icy material continuously, which sublimated in the coma and heated the ambient gas, augmenting fast H-atoms produced by H{sub 2}O photolysis. ISON adds to the very limited sample of comets for which spatial-spectral studies of water temperatures have been conducted. These studies are now feasible and can be extended to comets having a variety of gas production rates. Continued synergy of such observations with both space missions like Rosetta and with physical models is strongly encouraged in order to gain a deeper understanding of the processes in the inner collisional zone of the cometary coma.

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THE PRE-PERIHELION ACTIVITY OF DYNAMICALLY NEW COMET C/2013 A1 (SIDING SPRING) AND ITS CLOSE ENCOUNTER WITH MARS

We used the UltraViolet-Optical Telescope on board Swift to systematically follow the dynamically new comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) on its approach to the Sun. The comet was observed from a heliocentric distance of 4.5 AU pre-perihelion to its perihelion at 1.4 AU. From our observations, we estimate that the water production rate during closest approach to Mars was 1.5 ± 0.3 × 10{sup 28} molecules s{sup −1}, that peak gas delivery rates where between 4.5 and 8.8 kg s{sup −1}, and that in total between 3.1 and 5.4 × 10{sup 4} kg cometary gas was delivered to the planet. Seasonal and evolutionary effects on the nucleus govern the pre-perihelion activity of comet Siding Spring. The sudden increase of its water production between 2.46 and 2.06 AU suggests the onset of the sublimation of icy grains in the coma, likely driven by CO{sub 2}. As the comet got closer to the Sun, the relative contribution of the nucleus’ water production increased, while CO{sub 2} production rates decreased. The changes in the comet’s activity can be explained by a depletion of CO{sub 2}, but the comet’s high mass loss rate suggests they may reflect primordial heterogeneities in the nucleus.

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MOLECULAR OXYGEN IN OORT CLOUD COMET 1P/HALLEY

Recently, the ROSINA mass spectrometer suite on board the European Space Agency's Rosetta spacecraft discovered an abundant amount of molecular oxygen, O{sub 2}, in the coma of Jupiter family comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko of O{sub 2}/H{sub 2}O = 3.80 ± 0.85%. It could be shown that O{sub 2} is indeed a parent species and that the derived abundances point to a primordial origin. Crucial questions are whether the O{sub 2} abundance is peculiar to comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko or Jupiter family comets in general, and also whether Oort cloud comets such as comet 1P/Halley contain similar amounts of molecular oxygen. We investigated mass spectra obtained by the Neutral Mass Spectrometer instrument during the flyby by the European Space Agency's Giotto probe of comet 1P/Halley. Our investigation indicates that a production rate of O{sub 2} of 3.7 ± 1.7% with respect to water is indeed compatible with the obtained Halley data and therefore that O{sub 2} might be a rather common and abundant parent species.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗