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Dynamical evolution of the Oort cloud

New studies of the dynamical evolution of cometary orbits in the Oort cloud are made using a revised version of Weissman's (1982) Monte Carlo simulation model, which more accurately mimics the perturbation of comets by the giant planets. It is shown that perturbations by Saturn and Jupiter provide a substantial barrier to the diffusion of cometary perihelia into the inner solar system. Perturbations by Uranus and Neptune are rarely great enough to remove comets from the Oort cloud, but do serve to scatter the comets in the cloud in initial energy. The new model gives a population of 1.8 to 2.1 x 10 to the 12th comets for the present-day Oort cloud, and a mass of 7 to 8 earth masses. Perturbation of the Oort cloud by giant molecular clouds in the galaxy is discussed, as is evidence for a massive 'inner Oort cloud' internal to the observed one. The possibility of an unseen solar companion orbiting in the Oort cloud and causing periodic comet showers is shown to be dynamically plausible but unlikely, based on the observed cratering rate on the earth and moon.

Weissman, P. R.

Impact and Collisional Processes in the Solar System

In the past year, we have successfully developed the techniques necessary to conduct impact experiments on ice at very low temperatures. We employ the method of embedding gauges within a target to measure the shock wave and material properties. This means that our data are not model dependent; we directly measure the essential parameters needed for numerical simulations of impact cratering. Since then we have developed a new method for temperature control of icy targets that ensures temperature equilibrium throughout a porous target. Graduate student, Sarah Stewart-Mukhopadhyay, is leading the work on ices and porous materials as the main thrust of her thesis research. Our previous work has focused on icy materials with no porosity, and we propose to extend our research to include porous ice and porous ice-silicate mixtures. There is little shockwave data for porous ice, and none of the data was acquired under conditions applicable to the outer solar system. The solid ice Hugoniot is only defined for initial temperatures above -20 C. Our program uniquely measures the properties of ice at temperatures directly applicable to the solar system. Previous experiments were conducted at ambient temperatures soon after removing the target from a cold environment, usually just below freezing, or in a room just below freezing. Since ice has an extremely complicated phase diagram, it is important to conduct experiments at lower temperatures to determine the true outcome of impacts in the outer solar system. This research is complementary to other programs on icy materials. Our work focuses on the inherent material properties by measuring the shock wave directly; this complements the macroscopic observations and immediately provides the parameters necessary to extend this research to the gravity regime. Our numerical simulations of impacts in porous ice under very low gravity conditions, such as found on comets, show that the final crater size and shape is very dependent on the dynamic strength of the material.

Ahrens, Thomas J.

The Meteoroid Fluence at Mars Due to Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring)

Long-period comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will experience a close encounter with Mars on 2014 Oct 19. A collision between the comet and the planet has been ruled out, but the comet's coma may envelop Mars and its man-made satellites. By the time of the close encounter, five operational spacecraft will be present near Mars. Characterizing the coma is crucial for assessing the risk posed to these satellites by meteoroid impacts. We present an analytic model of cometary comae that describes the spatial and size distributions of cometary dust and meteoroids. This model correctly reproduces, to within an order of magnitude, the number of impacts recorded by Giotto near 1P/Halley [1] and by Stardust near comet 81P/Wild 2 [2]. Applied to Siding Spring, our model predicts a total particle fluence near Mars of 0.02 particles per square meter. In order to determine the degree to which Siding Spring's coma deviates from a sphere, we perform numerical simulations which take into account both gravitational effects and radiative forces. We take the entire dust component of the coma and tail continuum into account by simulating the ejection and evolution of dust particles from comet Siding Spring. The total number of particles simulated is essentially a free parameter and does not provide a check on the total fluence. Instead, these simulations illustrate the degree to which the coma of Siding Spring deviates from the perfect sphere described by our analytic model (see Figure). We conclude that our analytic model sacrifices less than an order of magnitude in accuracy by neglecting particle dynamics and radiation pressure and is thus adequate for order-of-magnitude fluence estimates. Comet properties may change unpredictably and therefore an analytic coma model that enables quick recalculation of the meteoroid fluence is highly desirable. NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office is monitoring comet Siding Spring and taking measurements of cometary brightness and dust production. We will discuss our coma model and nominal fluence taking the latest observations into account.

Moorhead, A.

Computer modeling of large asteroid impacts into continental and oceanic sites: Atmospheric, cratering, and ejecta dynamics

Numerous impact cratering events have occurred on the Earth during the last several billion years that have seriously affected our planet and its atmosphere. The largest cratering events, which were caused by asteroids and comets with kinetic energies equivalent to tens of millions of megatons of TNT, have distributed substantial quantities of terrestrial and extraterrestrial material over much or all of the Earth. In order to study a large-scale impact event in detail, computer simulations were completed that model the passage of a 10 km-diameter asteroid through the Earth's atmosphere and the subsequent cratering and ejecta dynamics associated with impact of the asteroid into two different targets, i.e., an oceanic site and a continental site. The calcuations were designed to broadly represent giant impact events that have occurred on the Earth since its formation and specifically represent an impact cratering event proposed to have occurred at the end of Cretaceous time. Calculation of the passage of the asteroid through a U.S. Standard Atmosphere showed development of a strong bow shock that expanded radially outward. Behind the shock front was a region of highly shock compressed and intensely heated air. Behind the asteroid, rapid expansion of this shocked air created a large region of very low density that also expanded away from the impact area. Calculations of the cratering events in both the continental and oceanic targets were carried to 120 s. Despite geologic differences, impacts in both targets developed comparable dynamic flow fields, and by approx. 29 s similar-sized transient craters approx. 39 km deep and approx. 62 km across had formed. For all practical purposes, the atmosphere was nearly completely removed from the impact area for tens of seconds, i.e., air pressures were less than fractions of a bar out to ranges of over 50 km. Consequently, much of the asteroid and target materials were ejected upward into a near vacuum. Effects of secondary volcanism and return of the ocean over hot oceanic crater floor could also be expected to add substantial solid and vaporized material to the atmosphere, but these conditions were not studied.

Roddy, D. J.

Dynamic Finite Element Predictions for Mars Sample Return Cellular Impact Test #4

The nonlinear, transient dynamic finite element code, MSC.Dytran, was used to simulate an impact test of an energy absorbing Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) that will impact without a parachute. EEVOs are designed to return materials from asteroids, comets, or planets for laboratory analysis on Earth. The EEV concept uses an energy absorbing cellular structure designed to contain and limit the acceleration of space exploration samples during Earth impact. The spherical shaped cellular structure is composed of solid hexagonal and pentagonal foam-filled cells with hybrid graphite-epoxy/Kevlar cell walls. Space samples fit inside a smaller sphere at the center of the EEVOs cellular structure. Pre-test analytical predictions were compared with the test results from a bungee accelerator. The model used to represent the foam and the proper failure criteria for the cell walls were critical in predicting the impact loads of the cellular structure. It was determined that a FOAM1 model for the foam and a 20% failure strain criteria for the cell walls gave an accurate prediction of the acceleration pulse for cellular impact.

Fasanella, Edwin L.

Dynamics of long period comets

The appearance of Halley's Comet in 1985 to 1986 and the related emphasis on research on physical models of cometary nuclei, led to a more moderate pace for the dynamical studies of the Oort cloud and the motion of long-period comets this year. Specific areas studied included the dynamical evolution of cometary showers as a result of stars passages through the inner Oort cloud and the possible relationship to observed stepwise mass extinctions at geological boundaries, revised estimates for the total mass of comets in the Oort cloud as a result of lessons learned from the spacecraft encounters with Halley's Comet, and study of the possible dynamical sources for the short-period comets in the solar system as part of a wider study of physical processing of cometary nuclei prior to their becoming visible comets. The work on cometary showers used a Monte Carlo simulation of the evolution of cometary orbits under a combination of planetary, nongravitational, and stellar perturbations, and with physical removal by disruption, sublimation of all volatiles, and collision.

Weissman, Paul R.

Dynamics of cometary dust

This paper summarizes recent progress in our understanding of the morphological diversity of dust comets. This diversity is a product of dust emission from discrete active areas on the nucleus surface and provides information on the comet's rotation state and source function. Advances in computer simulations of dust coma morphology are described and the diagnostic properties of various dusty features are emphasized. Also addressed are some of the issues of dust tail morphology and particle fragmentation. Finally, lessons learnt from investigations of the dust population of comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 are discussed and implications for physical studies of the comet's collision with Jupiter are identified.

comets

Comet Hitchhiker: NIAC Phase 1 Final Report

Summary of Activities-Developed the Comet Hitchhiker concept, which is to hitch rides on small bodies (asteroids and comets) using a tethered spacecraft. (Section 2)-Identified five scientifically important missions that would be enabled or significantly benefited by the Comet Hitchhiker concept.The five mission concepts are: KBO rendezvous, Centaur rendezvous, Trojan rendezvous, Damocloid rendezvous, and Main asteroid belt tour to rendezvous with multiple (10) objects. (Section 3)-Derived the Space Hitchhike Equation, or "the rocket equation for hitchhiker", which relates the specific strength of tether, mass ratio, and V. (Section 4.1)-Performed in-depth feasibility analysis of the critical components of the concept through: Finite-element simulations of tether and spacecraft dynamics, as shown in Figure 1 (Section 4.4); Supercomputer simulations of the hypervelocity impact of harpoon on a small body, as shown in Figure 2. (Section 6)-Performed public outreach activities including the collaboration with a concept artist of the Museum of Science Fiction, exposure to media, and public presentations. (Section 8)

Deep Space

Impact Test and Simulation of Energy Absorbing Concepts for Earth Entry Vehicles

Nonlinear dynamic finite element simulations have been performed to aid in the design of an energy absorbing concept for a highly reliable passive Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) that will directly impact the Earth without a parachute. EEV's are designed to return materials from asteroids, comets, or planets for laboratory analysis on Earth. The EEV concept uses an energy absorbing cellular structure designed to contain and limit the acceleration of space exploration samples during Earth impact. The spherical shaped cellular structure is composed of solid hexagonal and pentagonal foam-filled cells with hybrid graphite- epoxy/Kevlar cell walls. Space samples fit inside a smaller sphere at the center of the EEV's cellular structure. Comparisons of analytical predictions using MSC,Dytran with test results obtained from impact tests performed at NASA Langley Research Center were made for three impact velocities ranging from 32 to 40 m/s. Acceleration and deformation results compared well with the test results. These finite element models will be useful for parametric studies of off-nominal impact conditions.

Billings, Marcus D.

Mass-loading and parallel magnetized shocks

Recent observations at comets Giacobini-Zinner and Halley suggest that simple nonreacting gas dynamics or MHD is an inappropriate description for the bow shock. The thickness of the observed (sub)shock implies that mass-loading is an important dynamical process within the shock itself, thereby requiring that the Rankine-Hugoniot conditions possess source terms. This leads to shocks with properties similar to those of combustion shocks. The paper considers parallel magnetized shocks subjected to mass-loading, describes some properties which distinguish them from classical MHD parallel shocks, and establishes the existence of a new kind of MHD compound shock. These results will be of importance both to observations and numerical simulations of the comet-solar wind interaction.

Zank, G. P.

Terrestrial impact rates for long and short-period comets

The present calculations of terrestrial impact rates for longand short-period comets crossing the earth's orbit respectively yield probabilities of 2.2 x 10 to the -9th/perihelion passage (with a probable velocity of 56.6 km/sec), and 6.6 x 10 to the -9th/perihelion passage (probable velocity, 28.9 km/sec). The total cratering rate from both long- and short-period comets is about 15 percent of the observed rate derived from known terrestrial astroblemes, although there is substantial uncertainty in both estimates. The estimated cratering rate from earth-crossing asteroids given by Shoemaker et al. (1979) is about twice the observed rate, and Monte Carlo simulations of the dynamical evolution of the Oort (1950) cloud yield cometary flux rate estimates for the early solar system of the order of 200 times the current flux.

Weissman, P. R.

Synoptic observations of near surface processes of an insolated ice-dust body under space conditions: The case of KOSI 9 and 10

The recent experiments of the Comet Simulation Project, KOSI 9 and KOSI 10, for the first time yielded synoptic results of physically correlated phenomena near the surface of insolated porous ice dust mixtures (90% H2O, 10% olivine, 0.1% fine dispersed carbon, sample mean density 0.40 +/- 0.001 g/cm(sup 3)) under space conditions. Correlations were observed e.g. between (1) grain size of emitted dust and dust mantle formation; (2) surface avalanches and local surface temperature; and (3) lateral variations of the surface temperature and the thickness of the dust mantle at the end of the experiment. The dynamic surface processes and the observed structural parameters of the dust mantle and the emitted mineral residues are discussed in view of real comets.

Thiel, K.

A disturbance of the ion tail of Comet Halley and the heliospheric structure as observed by Sakigake

In order to study the interaction between the solar wind measured by Sakigake and ion tail disturbances of comet Halley, more than 500 photographs of the comet taken on the ground during this apparition are surveyed. The focus of the present study is the December 31, 1985, event, when various types of disturbances occurred, including an outstanding disconnection event (DE)-like knot. Analysis of the Sakigake/IMF data reveals that comet Halley did not encounter the heliospheric neutral sheet on that day, demanding a new explanation for the DE-like event, different from the Niedner-Brandt model. During this event the comet encountered a high-speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole tongue of the sun. The event can be explained by a dynamic pressure model, according to which the DE-like plasmoid was caused by a sudden increase in the dynamic pressure of the solar wind. A result of the simulation work by Ogino is found to support this interpretation.

Saito, T.

Dynamic Finite Element Predictions for Mars Sample Return Cellular Impact Test #4

The nonlinear finite element program MSC.Dytran was used to predict the impact pulse for (he drop test of an energy absorbing cellular structure. This pre-test simulation was performed to aid in the design of an energy absorbing concept for a highly reliable passive Earth Entry Vehicle (EEV) that will directly impact the Earth without a parachute. In addition, a goal of the simulation was to bound the acceleration pulse produced and delivered to the simulated space cargo container. EEV's are designed to return materials from asteroids, comets, or planets for laboratory analysis on Earth. The EEV concept uses an energy absorbing cellular structure designed to contain and limit the acceleration of space exploration samples during Earth impact. The spherical shaped cellular structure is composed of solid hexagonal and pentagonal foam-filled cells with hybrid graphite-epoxy/Kevlar cell walls. Space samples fit inside a smaller sphere at the enter of the EEV's cellular structure. The material models and failure criteria were varied to determine their effect on the resulting acceleration pulse. Pre-test analytical predictions using MSC.Dytran were compared with the test results obtained from impact test #4 using bungee accelerator located at the NASA Langley Research Center Impact Dynamics Research Facility. The material model used to represent the foam and the proper failure criteria for the cell walls were critical in predicting the impact loads of the cellular structure. It was determined that a FOAMI model for the foam and a 20% failure strain criteria for the cell walls gave an accurate prediction of the acceleration pulse for drop test #4.

Fasanella, Edwin L.

A spacecraft attitude and articulation control system design for the Comet Halley intercept mission

An attitude and articulation control system design for the Comet Halley 1986 intercept mission is presented. A spacecraft dynamics model consisting of five hinge-connected rigid bodies is used to analyze the spacecraft attitude and articulation control system performance. Inertial and optical information are combined to generate scan platform pointing commands. The comprehensive spacecraft model has been developed into a digital computer simulation program, which provides performance characteristics and insight pertaining to the control and dynamics of a Halley Intercept spacecraft. It is shown that scan platform pointing error has a maximum value of 1.8 milliradians during the four minute closest approach interval. It is also shown that the jitter or scan platform pointing rate error would have a maximum value of 2.5 milliradians/second for the nominal 1000 km closest approach distance trajectory and associated environment model.

Key, R. W.

Dynamics of the Trans-Neptune Region: Apsidal Waves in the Kuiper Belt

The role of apsidal density waves propagating in a primordial trans-Neptune disk (i.e., Kuiper belt) is investigated. It is shown that Neptune launches apsidal waves at its secular resonance near 40 AU that propagate radially outward, deeper into the particle disk. The wavelength of apsidal waves is considerably longer than waves that might be launched at Lindblad resonances, because the pattern speed, g(sub s), resulting from the apsis precession of Neptune is much slower than its mean motion, Omega(sub s). If the early Kuiper belt had a sufficient surface density, sigma, the disk's wave response to Neptune's secular perturbation would have spread the disturbing torque radially over a collective scale lambda(sub *) approx. = r(2(mu)(sub d)Omega/ absolute value of r dg/dr)(sup 1/2), where mu(sub d)equivalent pi(sigma)r(exp 2)/(1 solar mass) and Omega(r) and g(r) are respectively the mean motion and precession frequency of the disk particles. This results in considerably smaller eccentricities at resonance than had the disk particles been treated as noninteracting test particles. Consequently, particles are less apt to be excited into planet-crossing orbits, implying that the erosion timescales reported by earlier test-particle simulations of the Kuiper belt may be underestimated. It is also shown that the torque the disk exerts upon the planet (due to its gravitational attraction for the disk's spiral wave pattern) damps the planet's eccentricity and further inhibits the planet's ability to erode the disk. Key words: celestial mechanics, stellar dynamics - comets: general minor planets, asteroids

Ward, William R.

Surface Contact Model for Comets and Asteroids

A contact force model was developed for use in touch and go (TAG) surface sampling simulations on small celestial bodies such as comets and asteroids. In TAG scenarios, a spacecraft descending toward the surface of a small body comes into contact with the surface for a short duration of time, collects material samples with a sampler device, and then ascends to leave the surface. The surface contact required 6-DOF (degrees of freedom) dynamics models due to coupling of the attitude and translation dynamics during the contact. The model described here is for contact scenarios that utilize a rotating brush wheel sampler (BWS) to collect surface material. The model includes stiffness and damping of the surface material during BWS vertical motion, lateral friction from the BWS dragging across the surface, and lateral shear from the rotating BWS scooping the surface material. This model is useful for any mission to asteroids or comets that incorporates surface sampling operations.

Blackmore, Lars James C.

G-DYN Multibody Dynamics Engine

G-DYN is a multi-body dynamic simulation software engine that automatically assembles and integrates equations of motion for arbitrarily connected multibody dynamic systems. The algorithm behind G-DYN is based on a primal-dual formulation of the dynamics that captures the position and velocity vectors (primal variables) of each body and the interaction forces (dual variables) between bodies, which are particularly useful for control and estimation analysis and synthesis. It also takes full advantage of the spare matrix structure resulting from the system dynamics to numerically integrate the equations of motion efficiently. Furthermore, the dynamic model for each body can easily be replaced without re-deriving the overall equations of motion, and the assembly of the equations of motion is done automatically. G-DYN proved an essential software tool in the simulation of spacecraft systems used for small celestial body surface sampling, specifically in simulating touch-and-go (TAG) maneuvers of a robotic sampling system from a comet and asteroid. It is used extensively in validating mission concepts for small body sample return, such as Comet Odyssey and Galahad New Frontiers proposals.

Acikmese, Behcet