6DOF CFD Surrogate Models Compared to Axisymmetric Missile Concept From Mach 0.60 to 3.95.
Abstract not provided.
Dreyer, Emily↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “comparative modeling”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Transport coefficient sensitivities in a semi-analytic model for magnetized liner inertial fusion
Performance of magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments is highly dependent on transport processes including magnetized heat flows and magnetic flux losses. Magnetohydrodynamic simulations used to model these experiments require a choice of model for the transport coefficients, which are the constants of proportionality relating driving terms, such as temperature gradients and currents, to the associated heat and magnetic field transport. The coefficients have been the subject of repeated recalculation using various methods throughout the years. Using a semi-analytic MagLIF model, we compare models for the transport coefficients. The choice of model modifies magnetic-flux losses caused by the Nernst thermoelectric effect and thermal conduction losses. We present simulated results from parameter scans conducted in order to compare the effects of the different models on parameters of interest in MagLIF. In some regions of parameter space, discrepancies of up to 38% are found in integrated quantities like the fusion yield. These results may serve as a guide for experimental validation of the various models, particularly as laser preheat energies and initial axial field strengths are increased on MagLIF experiments.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Graph-Based Similarity Metrics for Comparing Simulation Model Causal Structures
The causal structure of a simulation is a major determinant of both its character and behavior, yet most methods we use to compare simulations focus only on simulation outputs. We introduce a method that combines graphical representation with information theoretic metrics to quantitatively compare the causal structures of models. The method applies to agent-based simulations as well as system dynamics models and facilitates comparison within and between types. Comparing models based on their causal structures can illuminate differences in assumptions made by the models, allowing modelers to (1) better situate their models in the context of existing work, including highlighting novelty, (2) explicitly compare conceptual theory and assumptions to simulated theory and assumptions, and (3) investigate potential causal drivers of divergent behavior between models. We demonstrate the method by comparing two epidemiology models at different levels of aggregation.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Artificial ground reflector size and position effects on energy yield and economics of single‐axis‐tracked bifacial photovoltaics
Abstract Artificial ground reflectors improve bifacial energy yield by increasing both front and rear‐incident irradiance. Studies have demonstrated an increase in energy yield due to the addition of artificial reflectors; however, they have not addressed the effect of varying reflector dimensions and placement on system performance and the impact of these parameters on the reflectors' financial viability. We studied the effect of high albedo (70% reflective) artificial reflectors on single‐axis‐tracked bifacial photovoltaic systems through ray‐trace modeling and field measurements. In the field, we tested a range of reflector configurations by varying reflector size and placement and demonstrated that reflectors increased daily energy yield up to 6.2% relative to natural albedo for PERC modules. To confirm the accuracy of our model, we compared modeled and measured power and found a root mean square error (RMSE) of 5.4% on an hourly basis. We modeled a typical meteorological year in Golden, Colorado, to demonstrate the effects of artificial reflectors under a wide range of operating conditions. Seventy percent reflective material can increase total incident irradiance by 1.9%–8.6% and total energy yield by 0.9%–4.5% annually after clipping is considered with a DC–AC ratio of 1.2. Clipping has a significant effect on reflector impact and must be included when assessing reflector viability because it reduces reflector energy gain. We calculated a maximum viable cost for these improvements of up to $2.50–4.60/m 2 , including both material and installation, in Golden. We expanded our analysis to cover a latitude range of 32–48°N and demonstrated that higher‐latitude installations with lower energy yield and higher diffuse irradiance content can support higher reflector costs. In both modeling and field tests, and for all locations, the ideal placement of the reflectors was found to be directly underneath the module due to the optimized rear irradiance increase.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Functional Predictor Variables for the Leaching Potential of Arsenic and Selenium from Coal Fly Ash
The release of leachates from intact coal ash impoundments is a concern due to the enrichment and mobilization of toxic elements such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se). This study aims to explore the intrinsic properties of coal fly ash that correlate with the relative leachability of As and Se. We performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic regions. We assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition, and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, and Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Benthic Kinetic Energy in an Earth System Model and Observations
The benthic layer of the ocean is closely correlated with every upper layer above it. Close analysis of benthic layer stress can yield an accurate depiction of the state of the ocean, as well as the atmosphere above it. Through the use of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we took a look at how these features changed over time in a simulation spanning the historical period from 1958 to 2018 in the Arctic Ocean north of 60° N. Making use of E3SM’s regional refinement capability to place higher resolution in regions of interest, the E3SM-Arctic configuration has ~10 km resolution in the ocean and sea ice components in this region, coarsening up to ~60 km outside of the Arctic (Veneziani et al. 2022). In particular, we narrowly focused on the benthic kinetic energy levels, and how trends changed over time. To validate the fidelity of the E3SM model, we compared model current speed outputs over a 369-day period in the Bering Strait to actual recorded observations during this time period. Our analysis of the benthic kinetic energy mean, standard deviation, and trend throughout this time period can be used to characterize the effects of environmental impacts in the Arctic Ocean.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Characterization of Arsenic and Selenium in Coal Fly Ash to Improve Evaluations for Disposal and Reuse Potential (Final Technical Report)
Coal fly ash is a high volume waste material that is discarded in landfills and surface water impoundments across the U.S. and is also widely recycled for a variety of applications. The leaching of potential of contaminants of concern, such as arsenic (As) and selenium (Se), is often the driver of risk assessments for coal ash disposal and reuse. The extent of leachable As and Se depends on several factors related to environmental conditions and fly ash characteristics. Previous studies employed various methods to delineate the concentration, chemical form, and distribution of As and Se in fly ash materials. However, few studies have attempted to directly correlate these properties to mobilization parameters relevant to disposal and reuse. Instead, the coal residuals industries often rely upon standardized leaching protocols that can be laborious or involve hazardous chemicals. The goals of the project were to: 1) Develop and evaluate a characterization protocol that can be used to screen fly ash samples for leachability of As and Se; 2) Characterize As, Se, and associated constituents of fly ash particles at multiple length scales (nanometer to micrometer) to determine if elemental associations differ as a function of the resolution of characterization; and 3) Establish a predictive model for the chemical composition of coal ash produced annually at major U.S. coal fired power facilities on 50-year national coal supply records. For the first objective, we performed leaching experiments with 52 fly ash samples collected from 15 different U.S. power plants and representing coal feedstocks from the three major domestic coal regions. For this work, we assessed the mobilization potential of As and Se in fly ash based on standardized leaching protocols and performed multivariate and lasso regression analyses to explore correlations of leachable As and Se contents with characteristics such as major element contents, loss on ignition (LOI) and pH. The results of regression models indicated that major elements (Fe, Ca, Al) for a wide range of fly ashes can serve as predictor variables for the leaching potential of As, but not for Se. LOI and pH were not important predictive variables in the models. Both regression approaches resulted in relatively strong fits for leachable As (correlation coefficient R 2 = 0.78 for both models) compared to models for leachable Se (R 2 = 0.49). Overall, these results suggest that correlation models combined with on-site elemental analysis with portable analyzers may enable a screening method for leachable As in coal ash. For the second objective, we utilized nanoscale 2-D imaging (30-50 nm spot size) with the Hard X-ray Nanoprobe (HXN) in combination with microprobe X-ray capabilities (~5 µm resolution) to determine As and Se elemental associations in fly ash particles. Speciation of As and Se was also measured at the nano- to microscale with X-ray absorption spectroscopy. The enhanced resolution of HXN showed As and Se that were diffusely located around or comingled with Ca- and Fe-rich particles. The results also showed nanoparticles of Se attached to the surface of fly ash grains. Overall, a comparison of As and Se species across scales highlights the heterogeneity and complexity of chemical associations for these trace elements of concern in coal fly ash. For the final objective, we developed a predictive model for major element composition of coal ash in reserve at disposal sites of major U.S. coal fired power plants. This model was constructed from coal purchase records of 705 power stations from 1973-2022 and was trained on coal ash composition data showing that coal ash elemental composition is strongly associated with the source of feedstock coal. The model showed regional shifts in the major element contents of ash produced by power plants in the last 50 years, particularly for calcium and iron (expressed as %CaO and %Fe 2 O 3 ), as coal-fired power stations changed their source of coal over this time frame. Our approach enables an estimation of coal ash chemical composition that is stored in waste impoundments at individual power stations. Such information can help delineate the regional market potential for material applications that would utilize coal ash harvested from disposal sites across the U.S.
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
Unsupervised Process Anomaly Detection and Identification Using the Leave-One-Variable-Out Approach
Automated anomaly detection and identification can signal equipment issues and pinpoint causes in large-scale industrial systems. For systems with limited failure history, unsupervised machine learning methods can be utilized as they do not require past failures. This study introduces the leave-one-variable-out (LOVO) model, which masks one variable at a time to predict the others, learning underlying process correlations. Detection performance was assessed with synthetic and experimental data, while identification performance used only synthetic data due to its ability to generate labeled anomaly types. For detection using synthetic data, the LOVO model generally outperformed comparative models; while using experimental data, the comparative methods outperformed the LOVO model. However, the comparative methods required selecting a latent size, and these conclusions pertain to using the optimal size. In practice, it would not be feasible to always select the optimal value, and incorrect selections impacted performance. In contrast, the LOVO model does not require a latent space. For identification using synthetic data, the LOVO model was slightly outperformed in interpretability and repeatability but still demonstrated impressive results. These outcomes suggest that the LOVO model is an effective model and may be more easily implemented without the challenging tuning process of selecting a latent size.
46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
Coupled Gas-Exchange Model for C4 Leaves Comparing Stomatal Conductance Models
Plant simulation models are abstractions of plant physiological processes that are useful for investigating the responses of plants to changes in the environment. Because photosynthesis and transpiration are fundamental processes that drive plant growth and water relations, a leaf gas-exchange model that couples their interdependent relationship through stomatal control is a prerequisite for explanatory plant simulation models. Here, we present a coupled gas-exchange model for C4 leaves incorporating two widely used stomatal conductance submodels: Ball–Berry and Medlyn models. The output variables of the model includes steady-state values of CO2 assimilation rate, transpiration rate, stomatal conductance, leaf temperature, internal CO2 concentrations, and other leaf gas-exchange attributes in response to light, temperature, CO2, humidity, leaf nitrogen, and leaf water status. We test the model behavior and sensitivity, and discuss its applications and limitations. The model was implemented in Julia programming language using a novel modeling framework. Our testing and analyses indicate that the model behavior is reasonably sensitive and reliable in a wide range of environmental conditions. The behavior of the two model variants differing in stomatal conductance submodels deviated substantially from each other in low humidity conditions. The model was capable of replicating the behavior of transgenic C4 leaves under moderate temperatures as found in the literature. The coupled model, however, underestimated stomatal conductance in very high temperatures. This is likely an inherent limitation of the coupling approaches using Ball–Berry type models in which photosynthesis and stomatal conductance are recursively linked as an input of the other.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Experiment-modeling studies comparing energy dissipation in the DIII-D SAS and SAS-VW divertors
Recent DIII-D experiments on Small Angle Slot (SAS) divertors have confirmed that a combination of divertor closure and target shaping can enhance cooling across the divertor target and increase energy dissipation, but with significant dependence on B T (toroidal magnetic field) direction. In these novel divertors, the roles of closure, target shaping, drifts, and scale lengths are all interconnected in optimizing dissipation, with the separatrix electron density n eSEP being the key parameter associated with the level of dissipation/detachment. After modifying the original flat-targeted graphite SAS to include a V shape with a tungsten coating on the outer side of the divertor (SAS-VW), matched series of discharges were run to compare to detailed SOLPS-ITER modeling. Experimentally, when run as designed with the outer strike point at the slot vertex, SAS-VW requires nearly identical n eSEP for detachment as the original SAS, with little difference in dissipation for the new geometry. This is in contrast to (1) earlier modeling predictions that a small change of the SAS geometry to a V shape should enhance dissipation at the same n eSEP for magnetic configurations having better H-mode access (ion B × ∇B drift directed into the divertor), and (2) despite the achievement of significantly higher (2-7x) neutral pressures and compression in the SAS-VW slot. Comparisons of experimental density scans to the most recent SOLPS-ITER modeling with ExB drifts show reasonable agreement for dissipation/detachment onset when using separatrix density as the independent parameter. In order to help understand the discrepancy in modeled vs actual performance for the new configuration, additional measurements varying gas injection location and impurity injection were undertaken. In-slot D 2 gas fueling is more effective (5–22 %) in promoting detachment, in accord with modeling. In-slot impurity injection (N 2 or Ne) can yield 30 % lower core Z eff and 15 % less confinement degradation after detachment compared to main chamber puffing, as well as relatively lower tungsten leakage from the divertor. Modeling can also reproduce the improved detachment seen as the strike point moves inboard of the slot vertex. While we can explain the effects of the most important parameters causing energy dissipation in these slot divertors, it remains that many aspects of their behavior cannot be accurately modeled using state-of-art codes such as SOLPS-ITER. This is of concern for future model-driven designs utilizing similar V-shaped geometries.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning
This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.
Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗
A mouse pancreatic organoid model to compare PD-L1 blocking antibodies
Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have changed the therapeutic landscape for cancer patients, but diabetes, a rare, severe immune-related endocrinopathy, is linked to ICI therapy. It is unclear whether glycosylation of ICIs may play a role in the development of this adverse event and how the physiological effects of different ICIs on pancreatic cells should be evaluated. We used a mouse pancreatic organoid model to compare three PD-L1 blocking antibodies in the presence or absence of IFNγ using a metabolic bioanalyzer. Modulation of ICI glycosylation altered its metabolic effects on mouse pancreatic organoids, suggesting that this model could be used to monitor and compare ICIs and to study the mechanisms underlying the development of IC-mediated diabetes.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Comparing Numerical Models of the TALOS Wave Energy Converter
In this study, we present the development of a numerical model of the TALOS Wave Energy Converter (WEC) in WEC-Sim and compare it with existing numerical in-house models from Lancaster and results from DNV's Sesam code. The objective of this work is to validate the performance of the TALOS WEC using WEC-Sim and compare the results with those obtained from other numerical models. The TALOS WEC is a promising technology for the generation of clean, renewable energy from ocean waves. The development of a reliable numerical model for the TALOS WEC is crucial for its design and optimization. To achieve this, we have implemented the TALOS WEC in WEC-Sim and compared the results to in-house models from Lancaster and to results from DNV's Sesam code. Our results show good agreement with the results from Lancaster and DNV, demonstrating the accuracy and reliability of the numerical model developed in WEC-Sim. This work advances the field of wave energy conversion by providing a verified numerical model of the TALOS WEC, which can be used for further optimization and design studies.
CFD↗
The Critical Role Of Conversion Cost And Comparative Advantage In Modeling Agricultural Land Use Change
The difference in land use modeling approaches is an important uncertain factor in evaluating future climate scenarios in global economic models. We compare five widely used land use modeling approaches: constrained optimization, constant elasticity of transformation (CET), the additive form of constant elasticity of transformation (ACET), logit, and Ricardian. We demonstrate that the approaches differ not only by the extent of parameter uses but also by the definition of conversion cost and the consideration of comparative advantage implied by land heterogeneity. We develop a generalized hybrid approach that incorporates ACET/logit and Ricardian to account for both conversion cost and comparative advantage. We use this hybrid approach to estimate future climate impacts on agriculture. We find a welfare loss of about 0.38–0.46% of the global GDP. We demonstrate that ignoring land heterogeneity or land conversion costs underestimates climate impacts on agricultural production and welfare.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Effects of stratification on overshooting and waves atop the convective core of M ⊙ main-sequence stars
As a massive star evolves along the main sequence, its core contracts, leaving behind a stable stratification in helium. We simulate two-dimensional convection in the core at three different stages of evolution of a $5\,\mathrm{ M}_{\odot }$ star, with three different stratifications in helium atop the core. We study the propagation of internal gravity waves in the stably stratified envelope, along with the overshooting length of convective plumes above the convective boundary. We find that the stratification in helium in evolved stars hinders radial motions and effectively shields the radiative envelope against plume penetration. This prevents convective overshooting from being an efficient mixing process in the radiative envelope. In addition, internal gravity waves are less excited in evolved models compared to the zero-age-main-sequence model, and are also more damped in the stratified region above the core. As a result, the wave power is several orders of magnitude lower in mid- and terminal-main-sequence models compared to zero-age-main-sequence stars.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Dynamic energy system modeling using hybrid physics-based and machine learning encoder–decoder models
Three model configurations are presented for multi-step time series predictions of the heat absorbed by the water and steam in a thermal power plant. The models predict over horizons of 2, 4, and 6 steps into the future, where each step is a 5-minute increment. The evaluated models are a pure machine learning model, a novel hybrid machine learning and physics-based model, and the hybrid model with an incomplete dataset. The hybrid model deconstructs the machine learning into individual boiler heat absorption units: economizer, water wall, superheater, and reheater. Each configuration uses a gated recurrent unit (GRU) or a GRU-based encoder–decoder as the deep learning architecture. Mean squared error is used to evaluate the models compared to target values. The encoder–decoder architecture is over 11% more accurate than the GRU only models. The hybrid model with the incomplete dataset highlights the importance of the manipulated variables to the system. The hybrid model, compared to the pure machine learning model, is over 10% more accurate on average over 20 iterations of each model. Automatic differentiation is applied to the hybrid model to perform a local sensitivity analysis to identify the most impactful of the 72 manipulated variables on the heat absorbed in the boiler. The models and sensitivity analyses are used in a discussion about optimizing the thermal power plant.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Does the leaf economic spectrum hold within plant functional types? A Bayesian multivariate trait meta-analysis
The leaf economic spectrum is a widely-studied axis of plant trait variability that defines a trade-off between leaf longevity and productivity. While this has been investigated at the global scale, where it is robust, and at local scales, where deviations from it are common, it has received less attention at the intermediate scale of PFTs. We investigated whether global leaf economic relationships are also present within the scale of plant functional types (PFTs) commonly used by Earth System models, and the extent to which this global-PFT hierarchy can be used to constrain trait estimates. We developed a hierarchical multivariate Bayesian model that assumes separate means and covariance structures within and across PFTs and fit this model to seven leaf traits from the TRY database related to leaf longevity, morphology, biochemistry, and photosynthetic metabolism. Although patterns of trait covariation were generally consistent with the leaf economic spectrum, we found three approximate tiers to this consistency. Relationships among morphological and biochemical traits (SLA, N, P) were the most robust within and across PFTs, suggesting that covariation in these traits is driven by universal leaf construction trade-offs and stoichiometry. Relationships among metabolic traits (R_d, V_{c,max}, J_max) were slightly less consistent, reflecting in part their much sparser sampling (especially for high-latitude PFTs), but also pointing to more flexible plasticity in plant metabolistm. Finally, relationships involving leaf lifespan were the least consistent, indicating that leaf economic relationships related to leaf lifespan are dominated by across-PFT differences and that within-PFT variation in leaf lifespan is more complex and idiosyncratic. Across all traits, these covariance were an important source of information, as evidenced by the improved imputation accuracy and reduced predictive uncertainty in multivariate models compared to univariate models. Ultimately, our study reaffirms the value of studying not just individual traits but the multivariate trait space and the utility of hierarchical modeling for studying the scale dependence of trait relationships.
biodiversity, ecological modeling, ecology, leaf b↗
Molecular Dynamics Simulations of Supercritical Carbon Dioxide and Water using TraPPE and SWM4-NDP Force Fields
The increased levels of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions due to the combustion of fossil fuels and the consequential impact on global climate change have made CO 2 capture, storage, and utilization a significant area of focus for current research. In most electrochemical CO 2 applications, water is used as a proton donor due to its high availability and mobility and use as a polar solvent. Additionally, supercritical CO 2 is a promising avenue for electrochemical applications due to its unique chemical and physical properties. Consequently, understanding the interactions between water and supercritical CO 2 is of great importance for future electrochemical applications. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is a powerful tool that enables atomistic-resolution dynamics of molecular systems, which can complement and guide future experimental investigations. This study employed atomistic MD to study the cosolubilities, codiffusivities, and structure of supercritical CO 2 and water systems, with a polarizable water model (SWM4-NDP) and a nonpolarizable CO 2 model (TraPPE). Additionally, ab initio MD simulations were used to better understand how atomistic polarizable/nonpolarizable models compare to explicit modeling of electron densities. The polarizable water model exhibited substantial improvement in water-associated properties. In conclusion, we anticipate the development of a compatible polarizable CO 2 model to yield similar improvement, providing a pathway for realizing novel high-pressure electrochemical systems.
25 ENERGY STORAGE↗