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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Preliminary verification of the MCNP perturbation and fixed-source tally sensitivity tools

Integral benchmark experiments are vital in the adjustment and validation of the nuclear data that govern predictive simulations across the nuclear community. The nuclear data sensitivity capabilities of the Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ®) transport code are currently limited; however, expanding sensitivity capabilities will allow benchmark experiments to be designed to resolve compensating errors and adjust nuclear data where previously prohibitively difficult. This paper provides details of a preliminary verification for the use of (i.) the recently revised perturbation and (ii.) developmental fixed-source sensitivity tools within MCNP to calculate sensitivities of tallied responses (such as current integrated over a surface, F1, and flux averaged over a cell, F4) to nuclear data in fixed-source simulations. Energy-binned and energy-integrated sensitivities calculated with these tools are compared against sensitivities calculated using a central-difference approximation. Here, the verification is completed for four configurations of a benchmarked system using a 4.5-kg plutonium sphere surrounded by varying amounts of copper and/or polyethylene. The results show that sensitivities calculated with the perturbation and fixed-source sensitivity tools agree with the central-difference-based approach.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Debunking common myths in coastal circulation modeling

Despite tremendous progress in algorithm development, computational efficiency and transition into operations over the past two decades, coastal modeling still lacks scientific rigor due to proliferation of many ‘gray’ areas related to various modeling choices made by modelers. Here, in this paper, we propose some guiding principles for the modeling community to improve performance, and we also debunk commonly held myths that make the coastal modeling lack rigor. Using our own experience in developing seamless cross-scale unstructured-grid based models for the past two decades, we describe in unprecedented detail the end-to-end modeling process (i.e., from digital elevation models (DEMs) to mesh generation to post analysis), and demonstrate that defensible modeling is within reach for any end user by following three guiding principles: (1) Bathymetry is a first order forcing in coastal domains and thus should be respected in all aspects of modeling; (2) Oceanographic processes are driven across multiple spatial scales and so models should enable appropriate resolution as needed; and (3) Model assessment should focus on physical processes. Through qualitative and quantitative model assessments, we demonstrate the fundamental role played by bathymetry/topography as embedded in DEMs in making the results defensible, which is unfortunately glossed over in many modeling studies. Focusing on process-based assessment simplifies the calibration process. A major conclusion of this work is that model developers and operators should maximize the scientific rigor for in silico oceanography by avoiding some common pitfalls that rely on error compensation at the expense of representation of physical system processes. We present some best practice procedures for defensive and trustworthy numerical modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power generation forecasting for solar plants based on Dynamic Bayesian networks by fusing multi-source information

A Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model for solar power generation forecasting in solar plants is proposed in this paper. The key idea is to fuse sensor data, operational indicators, meteorological data, lagged output power information, and model errors for more accurate short-term (e.g., hours) and mid-term (e.g., days to weeks) power generation forecasting. The proposed DBN augments automated data-driven structure learning with expert knowledge encoding using continuous and categorical data given constraints to represent causal relationships within a solar inverter system. Additionally, an error compensation mechanism is proposed to capture temporal fluctuation. The effectiveness of the DBN on solar power generation forecasting was evaluated by rolling window analysis with one-year testing data collected from a local solar plant. The proposed DBN is compared with four state-of-art methods including support-vector regression (SVR), k-nearest neighbors (kNN), artificial neural network (ANN), and long short-term memory (LSTM) models. The result show that the proposed DBN achieves better accuracy in general, and it is not as data-hungry as some neural network-based models. The proposed DBN is also shown to have robust and consistent forecasting power with different forecasting horizons. The accuracy is 92% - 95% from one hour to one week ahead forecasting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Habit–Dependent Vapor Growth Modulates Arctic Supercooled Water Occurrence

We present an analysis of long-term data collected at Utqiagvik, Alaska, to explore the impacts of cloud processes on the probability of finding supercooled water given cloud temperature, P(L|T), in the topmost unseeded liquid-bearing layers. P(L|T) has local minima at temperatures around –6°C and –15°C. Simulations using habit-evolving ice microphysics models suggest that these minima are the result of efficient vapor growth by non-isometric habits found at these temperatures. Here, we conclude that habit-dependent vapor growth of ice crystals modulates the macrophysical occurrence of supercooled water in polar clouds, the effect of which should be included in model parametrizations to avoid biases and/or error compensation. Our methodology is adaptable for spherical ice treatments implemented in models (example parametrizations provided), amenable for use with satellite measurements to give global impartial observational targets for model evaluations, and may allow empirical characterization of bulk responses to seeding and possibly secondary ice effects.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

How can a diverse set of integral and semi-integral measurements inform identification of discrepant nuclear data?

Nuclear data are used for a variety of applications, including criticality safety, reactor performance, and material safeguards. Despite the breadth of use-cases, the effective neutron multiplication factor, keff, of ICSBEP critical assemblies are primarily used for nuclear data validation; these are sensitive to specific energy regions and nuclides and are unable to uniquely constrain nuclear data. As a consequence, general-purpose nuclear data libraries, such as ENDF/B-VIII.0, may have deficiencies that, while not apparent in criticality applications, negatively impact other applications, such as non-destructive analysis of special nuclear material and neutron diagnosed subcritical experiments. Recent work by the Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data (EUCLID) project developed a machine learning tool, RAFIEKI, which uses random forests and the SHAP metric to determine which nuclear data contribute most to predicted bias between measured and simulated responses (e.g. keff). This paper contrasts RAFIEKI analysis applied to keff only against RAFIEKI analysis with keff paired with either LLNL pulsed sphere measurements or subcritical benchmarks. Two examples show that a) including pulsed sphere measurements substantially increases 9Be nuclear data importance to bias between 2 and 15 MeV, and b) including subcritical benchmarks has the potential for disentangling compensating errors between 240Pu (n,el) and (n,il) cross-sections between 0.1 and 10 MeV. These results show that RAFIEKI analysis applied to response sets that include, but go beyond, keff can aid nuclear data evaluators in identifying issues in nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters

Accurately predicting the criticality of an experiment before interacting with the experimental components is very important for criticality safety. Radiation transport software can be utilized to calculate the effective neutron multiplication factor of a nuclear system. Because of the integral nature of the effective neutron multiplication factor, the value calculated contains various sources of nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The sensitivity analysis and data assimilation technique presented in this paper exhibit one possible method of identifying and reducing the effective neutron multiplication factor nuclear-data induced uncertainty. The results presented in this work show that it is possible to use relative sensitivity coefficients of the prompt neutron decay constant and the effective delayed neutron fraction to 239 Pu nuclear data to reduce nuclear-data induced uncertainties in the effective neutron multiplication factor. This work has been utilized by members of the Los Alamos National Laboratory project EUCLID (Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data) for optimally designing a new experiment, which will be used to reduce compensating errors in 239 Pu nuclear data.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Jezebel Reactivity Coefficients and Sensitivity Analysis

Nuclear data validation is often performed today using criticality measurements. The gold standard for criticality measurements is the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiment Project (ICSBEP). The validation specifically focuses on the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$). $K_{eff}$ is a relatively easy parameter to infer and has reduced uncertainty due to being at or above critical. However, while $k_{eff}$ is the most documented parameter and its uncertainties and sensitivities have been evaluated in great detail, it cannot be used as a standalone metric to determine inaccuracies in nuclear data (e.g., cross section data, PFNS, nu), which is based on theory, physics, and differential measurements. The Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in nuclear Data (EUCLID) project aims to identify compensating errors in specific isotope nuclear data by optimally designing experiments that are, or are not sensitive to a suite of measurement parameters beyond $k_{eff}$. By identifying parameters that are sensitive to each other, oppositely sensitive, or have substantial magnitude differences in sensitivity, experiments can be designed to constrain questionable nuclear data. One sensitivity that is of particular interest to this project includes the sensitivity of reactivity coefficients. Reactivity coefficients compare reactivity, which is related to $k_{eff}$ at two different states therefore being sensitive to small changes in the system. The most common type of reactivity coefficient measurements is comparison to void for a small sample within the assembly. It is key that the sample sizes are small enough to not affect the flux of the full system. Reactivity coefficients were evaluated for many early experiments to better understand transport corrected cross sections. In fact, ICSBEP includes reactivity coefficient results as “Supplemental Measurements” in appendices for a handful of older benchmarks. One of those benchmarks is Jezebel, the bare Pu critical assembly. This paper compares new simulations of reactivity coefficients for Jezebel, and explores the sensitivity of reactivity coefficients to small changes in nuclear data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Verification of Flux Sensitivity Estimates Using the MCNP Tally Perturbation Tool

Nuclear data is commonly used in applications such as nuclear nonproliferation, safeguards, and criticality safety. More specifically, nuclear data is used in predictive simulation codes like the Monte-Carlo N-Particle (MCNP ® ) transport code, Serpent, and similar radiation transport codes. The improvement of nuclear data enables more precise and accurate simulations, which result in higher fidelity designs and reduced operational/procedural costs. Therefore, the improvement of nuclear data is of paramount importance across the nuclear community. Nuclear data is improved and validated through integral benchmark experiments. The design of benchmark experiments is an extensive process; therefore, these experiments are often optimized on multiple characteristics, including sensitivity to the nuclear data, during the design process. Sensitivity is a measure of how much a quantity changes due to changes in independent variables such as experimental configuration. An experimental design that has a larger sensitivity to the nuclear data of interest will have a larger impact on the accuracy and precision of the validated data. Past integral benchmark experiments have primarily used the effective multiplication factor ($k_{eff}$) as the predominant measured quantity; however, experiments designed with other quantities in mind would be able to optimize on validating different areas of the nuclear data. A primary goal of the EUCLID project is to design, constrain, and reduce compensating errors in experiments focused on quantities other than $k_{eff}$ to better validate nuclear data across the board. Currently, there is a capability in MCNP to easily calculate the sensitivity of $k_{eff}$ to specific nuclear data of numerous reactions types and isotopes (KSEN card); however, the sensitivity of other quantities must be estimated in more strenuous manners. For example, the perturbation feature (PERT card) of MCNP can be used to estimate first-order sensitivities of some response in fixed source simulations. A recent announcement revealed that the first- and second-order perturbation features in previous releases of MCNP contained a bug. It was identified that particles were being scored into the wrong energy bin. The bug is in the most recent public release (MCNP6.2); however, a patch has been added to the most up to date version (MCNP6.2.2) that has not been released publicly. A direct comparison of the PERT card results for an F4 (neutron flux averaged over a cell) tally before and after the patch are shown in figure 1. All simulations used in the sensitivity estimates in this report were performed with MCNP6.2.2. This work verifies the patched MCNP perturbation tool by comparing first order sensitivities made using the PERT card to estimates made using manual perturbation of the compact ENDF (ACE) files.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Impact of Changes in ENDF/B-VII.1 and ENDF/B-VIII.0 235U Nuclear Data Indicated by NDSE Studies on LLNL Pulsed Sphere Simulations

A recent journal article by J.A. Gomez et al. measured gamma-ray die-off curves of three subcritical static highly-enriched uranium (HEU) assemblies driven by an external neutron source with a new detector system. This new detector system was developed for being used in dynamically driven subcritical assemblies as part of the Neutron Diagnosed Subcritical Experiments (NDSE) program. Simulations of these die-off curves with various nuclear data and comparison to experimental data indicated that a decrease of the ENDF/B-VII.1 235 U(n,inl) cross section by a factor 0.8 and 0.85 for ENDF/B-VIII.0 would lead to better predictions of experimental data. Here, we test the proposed changes with another type of measurement response, namely neutron-leakage spectra emitted in LLNL pulsed sphere measurements. These spheres were pulsed by 14-MeV neutrons produced via the D+T reaction in their center. The proposed changes in nuclear data have a distinctly smaller impact on predicting pulsed-sphere neutron-leakage spectra than for the die-off curves; they lead to a worsened prediction of the inelastic valley of LLNL pulsed-sphere neutron spectra indicating that the proposed change could constitute a compensating error. Changes in the inelastic angular distributions along with the cross section might be worthwhile to study

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Verification of Revised and Upcoming Nuclear Data Sensitivity MCNP Features [Poster]

Nuclear data is ubiquitous across nuclear applications. Improved nuclear data means more accurate simulations. Past focus on k eff caused compensating error and areas of unvalidated nuclear data. Sensitivity can be used to optimize experiments to focus on specific areas. Sensitivity capabilities must be expanded and improved to design multivariate experiments focused on nuclear data needs.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

EUCLID: Experiments Underpinned by Computational Learning for Improvements in Nuclear Data [Slides]

EUCLID will design validation experiments optimized to resolve compensating errors and adjust nuclear data to experiments. A big part of the success of the EUCLID proposal was due to previous work supported by NCSP (MCNP, nuclear data, and NCERC capabilities). The work performed under EUCLID will similarly benefit the NCSP mission. It will lead to new MCNP capabilities, improved nuclear data and nuclear data capabilities, and new methodology and tools that will have large impact on future NCERC experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Data Assimilation using Non-invasive Monte Carlo Sensitivity Analysis of Reactor Kinetics Parameters [Slides]

Sensitivity coefficients of prompt neutron decay constant (α) and effective delayed neutron fraction (β eff ) to Pu-239 nuclear data were calculated using a newly available tool (ACEtk). Uncertainty calculations showed the following trends: (1) The prompt neutron decay constant can be used to reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239(n,f) and (2) the effective delayed neutron fraction can be used to effectively reduce nuclear data-induced uncertainty in Pu-239 total fission $\tilde{v}$. Sensitivity/uncertainty analysis can be used to determine optimal experiment/detector setup to identify compensating errors in nuclear data. Upcoming work includes investigating other nuclide-reaction pairs and response sensitivities, such as Δ$\rho$, neutron leakage spectra, and reaction rate measurements to constrain nuclear data of interest.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improvements of Nuclear Data Evaluations for Lead Isotopes in Support of Next Generation Lead-Cooled Fast Systems

The neutron evaluation of the isotopes that comprise natural lead were undertaken as a part of DOE-NEUP Project #19-16739. The goal of the project was to update the neutron cross sections to account for new differential measurements and incorporate the most up-to-date physics. Shortcomings in the lead cross sections was made known by several independent reports. The work performed here repeated the simulation of all the “benchmark” validation systems and concluded that the major issue is the scattering cross sections in the major lead isotopes above 100 keV. Re-evaluation of 206,207,208 Pb included both the resolved resonance region and fast region evaluations of the cross sections. Combined these regions cover energies from thermal to 20 MeV. The most drastic improvement is the resolved resonance region evaluation of 208 Pb which is now extended from 1.0 to 1.5 MeV. Parameterization of these resonances in the R-matrix provides a superior reconstruction of not only the experimental cross section but also the scattering distributions via the Blatt-Biedenharn formalism. Fast region evaluations of the three major isotopes were done to include new inelastic experimental data from the neutron Time-of-Flight facility at CERN. The culmination of all the changes to the cross section is a drastic improvement in the scattering kernel as shown in Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (RPI) Quasi-Differential scattering measurements and improved prediction of keff for fast integral experiments. Alongside the new cross sections, new nuclear data covariance (uncertainties) have been computed and are included in the evaluation. Little is changed in the magnitude of the uncertainties but the correlations within the covariance display non-trivial changes. The new evaluations of 206,207,208 Pb have been submitted to the National Nuclear Data Center to be included in the ENDF/B-VIII.1 library. While the cross sections have been updated extensively, knowledge and modeling of the cross sections between 1.0 and 3.0 MeV for the isotopes remain a challenge. Most notably is the double differential elastic cross section for 208 Pb and 206 Pb. New quasi-differential measurements for pure samples of these two nuclei would go a long way in reducing compensating errors in the evaluations. Qualitatively, the project has produced a prosperous collaboration between the nuclear data group at RPI with staff scientists at Brookhaven National Laboratory, Naval Nuclear Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Sandia National Laboratories. Quantitatively this is reflected in seven conference presentations, at least one journal submission, and one doctoral thesis.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

EUCLID Experiment: Design, Execution, and Early Results [Slides]

This presentation covers design, execution, and early results for the EUCLID experiment. Unresolved compensating errors for Pu-239 and the Joint uncertainty problems are discussed. Various tools and design implementations are discussed along with upcoming work. Additional slides compare EUCLID calculations to experiment for several nuclear data libraries. ENDF/B-VIII.1β2 is named e81b2.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the Variation and Covariation of Cloud Microphysical Properties and Implications for Simulation of Subgrid-scale Warm-Rain Processes in Earth System Models (Final DOE-ASR Report)

Warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds constitute an important component in the global climate system, and precipitation plays a central role in controlling the water budget, radiative effects, and lifetime of these MBL clouds. Unfortunately, because of the relatively coarse effective grid resolution of the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs), the variety of cloud microphysical processes occurring inside an ESM grid cell are often oversimplified or unconstrained by observations. For example, the warm rain processes (e.g., autoconversion and accretion) are usually parameterized as nonlinear functions of grid-mean cloud properties. Because of the nonlinear nature of these functions, neglecting variability within the ESM grid volume can lead to substantial biases in precipitation production, cloud cover, and surface radiative fluxes. In state-of-the art ESMs, the influence of subgrid-scale variability is represented as an enhancement factor (EF) coefficient to the autoconversion, and accretion rates calculated from the model variables. However, EF is typically taken to be a constant or even used as a knob to tune model cloud properties to match observations, an ad hoc approach that may yield a desired cloud outcome yet introduce compensating errors. In this project, we used the combination of in situ cloud microphysics measurements from the ACE-ENA field campaign and large-eddy simulations (LES) to characterize and understand subgrid-scale variations and co-variations of cloud microphysical properties and use the results to evaluate and improve the representation of subgrid warm-rain processes in ESMs, in particular the EF used to tune the autoconversion and accretion processes. In this final report, we summarize our research activities and main findings in Section 2, provide a list of publications (Section 3) and presentations (Section 4) resulted from our research, and briefly discuss the student activities supported by this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shedding light on the 239Pu fission source term with new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling

In the last decade, there has been a renaissance of fission research resulting in new high-precision experiments and advanced fission modeling. For instance, the Chi-Nu and CEA teams supplied, for the first time, the 239 Pu prompt fission neutron spectrum (PFNS) for broad ranges of incident and outgoing neutron energies. The CEA team also measured 239 Pu average prompt neutron multiplicities, ν ̄ p , with lower statistical uncertainties and a technique significantly different than the one used in the past. The NIFFTE collaboration provided 239 Pu( n ,f)/ 235 U( n ,f) cross section shape ratios with uncertainties below 1% utilizing a novel detector type. Advanced fission event generators were developed, among them CGMF, FIFRELIN, FREYA, and GEF, which calculate post-scission fission observables in a correlated manner. These new experimental data and more consistent fission models change the evaluated PFNS, ν ̄ p , and ( n ,f) cross sections, some only modestly, compared to ENDF/B-VIII.0. In turn, the individual new nuclear data distinctly change simulated effective neutron multiplication factors of fast critical assemblies, but their combined impact is small, while affecting the prediction of LLNL pulsed sphere neutron leakage spectra and reaction rates only within experimental uncertainties. Also, the parameters obtained from fitting to ν ̄ p reproduce various post-scission fission observables within the uncertainties of experimental data. This indicates that new differential experiments and consistent fission modeling reduce compensating errors present in ENDF/B-VIII.0.

fission cross section↗
DOE OSTI2023

Influences of Cloud Microphysics on the Components of Solar Irradiance in the WRF-Solar Model

An accurate forecast of Global Horizontal solar Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) in cloudy conditions remains a major challenge in the solar energy industry. This study focuses on the impact of cloud microphysics on GHI and its partition into DNI and Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model specifically designed for solar radiation applications (WRF-Solar) and seven microphysical schemes. Three stratocumulus (Sc) and five shallow cumulus (Cu) cases are simulated and evaluated against measurements at the US Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility, Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Results show that different microphysical schemes lead to spreads in simulated solar irradiance components up to 75% and 350% from their ensemble means in the Cu and Sc cases, respectively. The Cu cases have smaller microphysical sensitivity due to a limited cloud fraction and smaller domain-averaged cloud water mixing ratio compared to Sc cases. Cloud properties also influence the partition of GHI into DNI and DHI, and the model simulates better GHI than DNI and DHI due to a non-physical error compensation between DNI and DHI. The microphysical schemes that produce more accurate liquid water paths and effective radii of cloud droplets have a better overall performance.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Development of aerosol activation in the double-moment Unified Model and evaluation with CLARIFY measurements

Representing the number and mass of cloud and aerosol particles independently in a climate, weather prediction or air quality model is important in order to simulate aerosol direct and indirect effects on radiation balance. Here we introduce the first configuration of the UK Met Office Unified Model in which both cloud and aerosol particles have “double-moment” representations with prognostic number and mass. The GLObal Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) aerosol microphysics scheme, already used in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 (HadGEM3) climate configuration, is coupled to the Cloud AeroSol Interacting Microphysics (CASIM) cloud microphysics scheme. We demonstrate the performance of the new configuration in high-resolution simulations of a case study defined from the CLARIFY aircraft campaign in 2017 near Ascension Island in the tropical southern Atlantic. We improve the physical basis of the activation scheme by representing the effect of existing cloud droplets on the activation of new aerosol, and we also discuss the effect of unresolved vertical velocities. We show that neglect of these two competing effects in previous studies led to compensating errors but realistic droplet concentrations. While these changes lead only to a modest improvement in model performance, they reinforce our confidence in the ability of the model microphysics code to simulate the aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions it was designed to represent. Capturing these interactions accurately is critical to simulating aerosol effects on climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗