Results for “competing risks” — Page 2

DOE OSTI2021

The interaction of the ITER first wall with magnetic perturbations

Mitigation of the multiple risks associated with disruptions and runaway electrons in tokamaks involves competing demands. Success requires that each risk be understood sufficiently that appropriate compromises can be made. Here the focus is on the interaction of short timescale magnetic-perturbations with the structure in ITER that is closest to the plasma, blanket modules covered by separated beryllium tiles. The effect of this tiled surface on the perturbations and on the forces on structures is subtle. Indeterminacy can be introduced by tile-to-tile shorting. A determinate subtlety is introduced because electrically separated tiles can act as a conducting surface for magnetic perturbations that have a normal component to the surface. A practical method for including this determinate subtlety into plasma simulations is developed. The shorter the timescales and the greater the localization, particularly in the toroidal direction, the more important the magnetic effects of the tiles become.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS1988

Probabilistic model for fracture mechanics service life analysis

The service longevity of complex propulsion systems, such as the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME), can be at risk from several competing failure modes. Conventional life assessment practice focuses upon the most severely life-limited feature of a given component, even though there may be other, less severe, potential failure locations. Primary, secondary, tertiary failure modes, as well as their associated probabilities, must also be considered. Futhermore, these probabilities are functions of accumulated service time. Thus a component may not always succumb to the most severe, or even the most probable failure mode. Propulsion system longevity must be assessed by considering simultaneously the actions of, and interactions among, life-limiting influences. These include, but are not limited to, high frequency fatigue (HFF), low cycle fatigue (LCF), and subsequent crack propagation, thermal and acoustic loadings, and the influence of less-than-ideal nondestructive evaluation (NDE). An outline is provided for a probabilistic model for service life analysis, and the progress towards its implementation is reported.

Annis, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2017

Design and Development of a 200-kW Turbo-Electric Distributed Propulsion Testbed

There a few NASA funded electric and hybrid electric projects from different NASA Centers, including the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center (AFRC) (Edwards, California). Each project identifies a specific technology gap that is currently inhibiting the growth and proliferation of relevant technologies in commercial aviation. This paper describes the design and development of a turbo-electric distributed propulsion (TeDP) hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) simulation bench, which is a test bed for discovering turbo-electric control, distributed electric control, power management control, and integration competencies while providing risk mitigation for future turbo-electric flying demonstrators.

propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2022

Habitat use by female desert tortoises suggests tradeoffs between resource use and risk avoidance

Animals may select habitat to maximize the benefits of foraging on growth and reproduction, while balancing competing factors like the risk of predation or mortality from other sources. Variation in the distribution of food resources may lead animals to forage at times or in places that carry greater predation risk, with individuals in poor quality habitats expected to take greater risks while foraging. We studied Mojave desert tortoises ( Gopherus agassizii ) in habitats with variable forage availability to determine if risk aversion in their selection of habitat relative was related to abundance of forage. As a measure of risk, we examined tortoise surface activity and mortality. We also compared tortoise body size and body condition between habitats with ample forage plants and those with less forage plants. Tortoises from low forage habitats selected areas where more annual plants were nutritious herbaceous flowering plants but did not favor areas of greater perennial shrub cover that could shelter them or their burrows. In contrast, tortoises occupying high forage habitats showed no preference for forage characteristics, but used burrows associated with more abundant and larger perennial shrubs. Tortoises in high forage habitats were larger and active above ground more often but did not have better body condition. Mortality was four times higher for females occupying low forage habitat than those in high forage habitat. Our results are consistent with the idea that tortoises may minimize mortality risk where food resources are high, but may accept some tradeoff of greater mortality risk in order to forage optimally when food resources are limiting.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

Management of Service Projects in Support of Space Flight Research

Goal:To provide human health and performance countermeasures, knowledge, technologies, and tools to enable safe, reliable, and productive human space exploration . [HRP-47051] Specific Objectives: 1) Develop capabilities, necessary countermeasures, and technologies in support of human space exploration, focusing on mitigating the highest risks to human health and performance. 2) Define and improve human spaceflight medical, environmental, and human factors standards. 3) Develop technologies that serve to reduce medical and environmental risks, to reduce human systems resource requirements (mass, volume, power, data, etc.) and to ensure effective human-system integration across exploration systems. 4) Ensure maintenance of Agency core competencies necessary to enable risk reduction in the following areas: A. Space medicine B. Physiological and behavioral effects of long duration spaceflight on the human body C. Space environmental effects, including radiation, on human health and performance D. Space "human factors" [HRP-47051]. Service projects can form integral parts of research-based project-focused programs to provide specialized functions. Traditional/classic project management methodologies and agile approaches are not mutually exclusive paradigms. Agile strategies can be combined with traditional methods and applied in the management of service projects functioning in changing environments. Creative collaborations afford a mechanism for mitigation of constrained resource limitations.

Love, J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Cascade Dielectrophoretic Separation for Selective Enrichment of Polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB)-Producing Cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803

Maintaining favorable biological productivities in photosynthetic biomanufacturing systems, especially when the risk of contamination with competing microbes is high, remains a challenge to achieve while maintaining economic feasibility. This study presents a dielectrophoresis (DEP)-based microfluidic approach for isolating a desired strain within a co-culture. The cyanobacterium Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 (a strain capable of producing the bioplastic precursor polyhydroxybutyrate, or PHB) was enriched from mixed cultures containing the competing cyanobacterium Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 (which does not naturally produce PHB). A DEP cascade electrode system was established to increase purification efficiency through sequential enrichment, which leveraged inherent differences in cell morphology and dielectric properties, to achieve the selective separation of these strains under physiological conditions. A substantial increase in the relative abundance of PHB-producing cells was assessed by optical microscopy and flow cytometry characterization, confirming more than five-fold reduction of the Synechococcus fraction in the refined cell mix. The presented electrokinetic platform offers a scalable and effective approach for selectively enhancing desired microbial components within microbial biomanufacturing systems, leading towards improved product yields.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks On Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Asteroid Crewed Segment Mission Lean Development

The next generation of human spaceflight missions presents numerous challenges to designers that must be addressed to produce a feasible concept. The specific challenges of designing an exploration mission utilizing the Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft to carry astronauts beyond earth orbit to explore an asteroid stored in a distant retrograde orbit around the moon will be addressed. Mission designers must carefully balance competing constraints including cost, schedule, risk, and numerous spacecraft performance metrics including launch mass, nominal landed mass, abort landed mass, mission duration, consumable limits and many others. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission will be described along with results from the concurrent mission design trades that led to its formulation. While the trades presented are specific to this mission, the integrated process is applicable to any potential future mission. The following trades were critical in the mission formulation and will be described in detail: 1) crew size, 2) mission duration, 3) trajectory design, 4) docking vs grapple, 5) extravehicular activity tasks, 6) launch mass and integrated vehicle performance, 7) contingency performance, 8) crew consumables including food, clothing, oxygen, nitrogen and water, and 9) mission risk. The additional Orion functionality required to perform the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission and how it is incorporated while minimizing cost, schedule and mass impacts will be identified. Existing investments in the NASA technology portfolio were leveraged to provide the added functionality that will be beneficial to future exploration missions. Mission kits are utilized to augment Orion with the necessary functionality without introducing costly new requirements to the mature Orion spacecraft design effort. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission provides an exciting early mission for the Orion and SLS while providing a stepping stone to even more ambitious missions in the future.

Gard, Joe↗

DOE OSTI2023

Changing temperature profiles and the risk of dengue outbreaks

As temperatures change worldwide, the pattern and competency of disease vectors will change, altering the global distribution of both the burden of infectious disease and the risk of the emergence of those diseases into new regions. To evaluate the risk of potential summer dengue outbreaks triggered by infected travelers under various climate scenarios, we develop an SEIR-type model, run numerical simulations, and conduct sensitivity analyses under a range of temperature profiles. Our model extends existing theoretical frameworks for studying dengue dynamics by introducing temperature dependence of two key parameters: the mosquito extrinsic incubation period and the lifespan of mosquitoes, which empirical data suggests are both highly temperature dependent. We find that changing temperature significantly alters dengue risk in an inverted U-shape, with temperatures in the range 27-31°C producing the highest risk. As temperatures increase beyond 31°C, the determinants of dengue risk begin to shift from mosquito biting rate and carrying capacity to the duration of the human infectious period, suggesting that changing temperatures not only alter dengue risk but also the potential efficacy of control measures. To illustrate the role of spatial and temporal temperature heterogeneity, we select five US cities where the primary dengue vector, the mosquito Aedes aegypti , has been observed, and which have had dengue cases in the past: Los Angeles, Houston, Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix. Our analysis suggests that an increase of 3°C leads to an approximate doubling of the risk of dengue in Los Angeles and Houston, but a reduction of risk in Miami, Brownsville, and Phoenix due to extreme heat.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Behavioral Makers to Assess During Selection for Active and Non-Active Astronauts

INTRODUCTION: NASA and our international partners seek to stay ahead of the evolving nature of the astronaut role. Spaceflight comes with various risks to team and individual. NASA has worked with its international partners in developing selection guidelines for minimal behavioral competencies needed upon selection. Training should be provided on the remaining behavioral competencies required for spaceflight. We will provide an overview of the process of identifying competencies important to assess as part of a multi-method selection program for active and non-active astronauts. TOPIC: NASA, ESA, CSA, and JAXA agency representatives used their vast combined knowledge and experience to develop competency requirement standards that future selection programs should assess when selecting astronauts. The astronaut role is expanding to include astronauts whose purposes are quite varied. NASA and its international partners identified the need to identify what competencies are required for anyone who will be experiencing the incredible demands, risks, and unique circumstances associated with spaceflight. Competencies include those required for individual and team functioning within the isolated, confined, and extreme environment. This need grew out of greater commercialization of spaceflight and other budding spaceflight prospects. 1. Each agency rated previously defined spaceflight required competencies (not important 0, somewhat important .5, or extremely important 1) to assess during selection. We did this for short duration (<14 days) and for long duration (<14 days) missions as some competencies appear to become of greater importance with longer duration missions. 2. We rated competencies for non-active crew and revisited previous ratings for active crew. 3. We compared agency ratings for non-active/active and short-duration/long-duration requirements and discussed in ratings until consensus was reached. We will use ratings to compile selection standards for active and non-active astronauts. APPLICATION: Our working group has vast operational experience and knowledge of the risk factors present during spaceflight that can disrupt individual and team functioning. Selection is one of the most important countermeasures for mitigating risk to individual and team health and performance. Our work should inform future programs for selecting crewmembers for short- and long-duration spaceflight among active and non-active crews.

Alexa Baxley↗

DOE OSTI2023

Cyber-CHAMP White Paper

Cyber-CHAMP white paper intern school assignment. Worldwide there is a tremendous shortfall in the cybersecurity workforce. By 2021, researchers have forecasted a deficit of 3.5 million cyber professionals. As workforce capabilities diminished, the world's cybersecurity threats have continued to multiply. Industrial control systems (ICSs) and their operational technology (OT) components became more vulnerable to attack and compromise. When an ICS is compromised, attackers can cause widespread impacts on national security, public health, and safety. This capacity makes ICSs attractive targets, with 90% of surveyed OT organizations reporting a damaging cyberattack in the last two years. To address the risk to ICSs, personnel must be competent in operational best practices and the latest threats. While frameworks for information technology (IT) cybersecurity education have been developed, educational standards for OT cybersecurity are nonexistent.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Approach to Critical Ablative TPS Capabilities Sustainment for Future NASA Missions

We plan to present an approach for NASA to maintain critical ablative TPS capabilities through small, sus-tained, smart and targeted investment. Historically, we have been pound foolish and penny wise for decades and paid very little attention to sustainability of abla-tive TPS and as a result, spent couple of decades in learning what we lost and inventing newer technology solutions. NASA’s ablative TPS history has been one of in-vesting in new and unique capabilities in anticipation of needs, and once flight proven, letting the capability atrophy due to lack of subsequent near-term mission needs [1]. When the need arises, NASA has resorted to two options: (1) revive the capability at considerable cost impact, or (2) develop an alternate capability with considerable schedule impact. Both these options have had considerable mission impact. The third alternate is to maintain proven capabilities in a cost effective manner. A risk informed decision process in terms of maintaining ablative TPS capabilities is feasible with planning and sustained support. Assured TPS availa-bility will allow the science community to propose competed missions with confidence and at a lower risk for selection. We submitted a white paper to the cur-rent Decadal Survey [2] on the need for and im-portance of sustainability. Since then, we have been formulating an executable cost effective strategy. The intent of this presentation is to outline the develop-ments since the submission of the white paper. NASA and DoD have had a working group related to critical technologies to periodically assess and make recommendations on at-risk items from a national need perspective. This inter-agency working group typically focuses on raw materials availability. While we agree that at-risk raw materials are important, fo-cus solely on them is not sufficient. Instead, we advo-cate for a broader focus that includes not only raw material but also industrial manufacturing and processing, and NASA expertise in design, testing and flight hardware certification. In this proposed presentation, we will give a brief overview of NASA’s ablative TPS history along with recent examples of atrophy to highlight case studies related to the PICA and Carbon-Phenolic TPS. We will present the rationale for sustaining PICA, HEEET and 3MDCP for future NASA missions. We will present an approach for how targeted small investments could lead to maintaining mission critical capabilities over long periods.

E Venkatapathy↗

NASA NTRS2003

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Lalk, Thomas R.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Risk Balance: A Key Tool for Mission Operations Assurance

The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager and Office of Safety and Mission Success staff. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. Quite often there are competing options for the project to select from in deciding how to execute the event. An example includes choices between proven but aging hardware components and unused but unproven components. Timing of the event with respect to visual or telecommunications visibility can be a consideration in the case of Earth reentry or hazardous maneuver events. It is in such situations that MOA is called upon for a risk balance assessment or risk trade study to support their recommendation to the Project Manager for a specific option to select. In the following paragraphs we consider two such assessments, one for the Stardust capsule Earth return and the other for the choice of telecommunications system configuration for the EPOXI flyby of the comet Hartley 2. We discuss the development of the trade space for each project's scenario and characterize the risks of each possible option. The risk characterization we consider includes a determination of the severity or consequence of each risk if realized and the likelihood of its occurrence. We then examine the assessment process to arrive at a MOA recommendation. Finally we review each flight project's decision process and the outcome of their decisions.

operations↗

DOE OSTI2020

Gen IV Education and Training Working Group Webinars’ Initiative

Collaboration and support among national laboratories, industry, universities, and research and development organizations are vital to not only maintain a skilled and competent nuclear workforce but also to avert the risk of human resource shortages. As stated in a recent IAEA paper [1], the world nuclear electrical generating capacity is projected to increase to 554 GW(e) by 2030 and up to 874 GW(e) by 2050 (Fig. 1). This represents a 42% increase over current levels by 2030 and a doubling of the current capacity by 2050. To promote Education and Training (E&T) on Gen IV reactor systems and other nuclear related topics of interest, the Gen IV Education and Training Working Group (ETWG) identifies and advertises training courses; engages collaboration with other international education and training organizations; delivers webinars dedicated to Gen IV systems; and maintains a modern social medium platform to exchange information and ideas on Gen IV R&D topics, as well as on related GIF education and training activities. At the end of June 2020, the GIF ETWG has produced, podcasted and posted forty-one webinars covering the six Gen IV systems and various subjects addressing e.g. the economics of the nuclear fuel cycle, sustainability aspects of Gen IV systems, nuclear fuels and materials challenges, the thorium fuel cycle, energy conversion systems, and lessons learned for knowledge management and preservation. This paper describes the development of these webinars from the initial concept to its full realization, with future webinars planned in 2021, addressing topics such as materials and fuels performance for advanced reactors, small modular reactor.

Paviet, Patricia D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗