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Managing Space Radiation Risks on Lunar and Mars Missions: Risk Assessment and Mitigation

Radiation-induced health risks are a primary concern for human exploration outside the Earth's magnetosphere, and require improved approaches to risk estimation and tools for mitigation including shielding and biological countermeasures. Solar proton events are the major concern for short-term lunar missions (<60 d), and for long-term missions (>60 d) such as Mars exploration, the exposures to the high energy and charge (HZE) ions that make-up the galactic cosmic rays are the major concern. Health risks from radiation exposure are chronic risks including carcinogenesis and degenerative tissue risks, central nervous system effects, and acute risk such as radiation sickness or early lethality. The current estimate is that a more than four-fold uncertainty exists in the projection of lifetime mortality risk from cosmic rays, which severely limits analysis of possible benefits of shielding or biological countermeasure designs. Uncertainties in risk projections are largely due to insufficient knowledge of HZE ion radiobiology, which has led NASA to develop a unique probabilistic approach to radiation protection. We review NASA's approach to radiation risk assessment including its impact on astronaut dose limits and application of the ALARA (As Low as Reasonably Achievable) principle. The recently opened NASA Space Radiation Laboratory (NSRL) provides the capability to simulate the cosmic rays in controlled ground-based experiments with biological and shielding models. We discuss how research at NSRL will lead to reductions in the uncertainties in risk projection models. In developing mission designs, the reduction of health risks and mission constraints including costs are competing concerns that need to be addressed through optimization procedures. Mitigating the risks from space radiation is a multi-factorial problem involving individual factors (age, gender, genetic makeup, and exposure history), operational factors (planetary destination, mission length, and period in the solar cycle), and shielding characteristics (materials, mass, and topology). We review optimization metrics for radiation protection including scenarios that integrate biophysics models of radiation risks, operational variables, and shielding design tools needed to assess exploration mission designs. We discuss the application of a crosscutting metric, based on probabilistic risk assessment, to lunar and Mars mission trade studies including the assessment of multi-factorial problems and the potential benefits of new radiation health research strategies or mitigation technologies.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗

Asteroid Crewed Segment Mission Lean Development

The next generation of human spaceflight missions presents numerous challenges to designers that must be addressed to produce a feasible concept. The specific challenges of designing an exploration mission utilizing the Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft to carry astronauts beyond earth orbit to explore an asteroid stored in a distant retrograde orbit around the moon will be addressed. Mission designers must carefully balance competing constraints including cost, schedule, risk, and numerous spacecraft performance metrics including launch mass, nominal landed mass, abort landed mass, mission duration, consumable limits and many others. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission will be described along with results from the concurrent mission design trades that led to its formulation. While the trades presented are specific to this mission, the integrated process is applicable to any potential future mission. The following trades were critical in the mission formulation and will be described in detail: 1) crew size, 2) mission duration, 3) trajectory design, 4) docking vs grapple, 5) extravehicular activity tasks, 6) launch mass and integrated vehicle performance, 7) contingency performance, 8) crew consumables including food, clothing, oxygen, nitrogen and water, and 9) mission risk. The additional Orion functionality required to perform the Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission and how it is incorporated while minimizing cost, schedule and mass impacts will be identified. Existing investments in the NASA technology portfolio were leveraged to provide the added functionality that will be beneficial to future exploration missions. Mission kits are utilized to augment Orion with the necessary functionality without introducing costly new requirements to the mature Orion spacecraft design effort. The Asteroid Redirect Crewed Mission provides an exciting early mission for the Orion and SLS while providing a stepping stone to even more ambitious missions in the future.

Gard, Joe↗

Behavioral Makers to Assess During Selection for Active and Non-Active Astronauts

INTRODUCTION: NASA and our international partners seek to stay ahead of the evolving nature of the astronaut role. Spaceflight comes with various risks to team and individual. NASA has worked with its international partners in developing selection guidelines for minimal behavioral competencies needed upon selection. Training should be provided on the remaining behavioral competencies required for spaceflight. We will provide an overview of the process of identifying competencies important to assess as part of a multi-method selection program for active and non-active astronauts. TOPIC: NASA, ESA, CSA, and JAXA agency representatives used their vast combined knowledge and experience to develop competency requirement standards that future selection programs should assess when selecting astronauts. The astronaut role is expanding to include astronauts whose purposes are quite varied. NASA and its international partners identified the need to identify what competencies are required for anyone who will be experiencing the incredible demands, risks, and unique circumstances associated with spaceflight. Competencies include those required for individual and team functioning within the isolated, confined, and extreme environment. This need grew out of greater commercialization of spaceflight and other budding spaceflight prospects. 1. Each agency rated previously defined spaceflight required competencies (not important 0, somewhat important .5, or extremely important 1) to assess during selection. We did this for short duration (<14 days) and for long duration (<14 days) missions as some competencies appear to become of greater importance with longer duration missions. 2. We rated competencies for non-active crew and revisited previous ratings for active crew. 3. We compared agency ratings for non-active/active and short-duration/long-duration requirements and discussed in ratings until consensus was reached. We will use ratings to compile selection standards for active and non-active astronauts. APPLICATION: Our working group has vast operational experience and knowledge of the risk factors present during spaceflight that can disrupt individual and team functioning. Selection is one of the most important countermeasures for mitigating risk to individual and team health and performance. Our work should inform future programs for selecting crewmembers for short- and long-duration spaceflight among active and non-active crews.

Alexa Baxley↗

An Approach to Critical Ablative TPS Capabilities Sustainment for Future NASA Missions

We plan to present an approach for NASA to maintain critical ablative TPS capabilities through small, sus-tained, smart and targeted investment. Historically, we have been pound foolish and penny wise for decades and paid very little attention to sustainability of abla-tive TPS and as a result, spent couple of decades in learning what we lost and inventing newer technology solutions. NASA’s ablative TPS history has been one of in-vesting in new and unique capabilities in anticipation of needs, and once flight proven, letting the capability atrophy due to lack of subsequent near-term mission needs [1]. When the need arises, NASA has resorted to two options: (1) revive the capability at considerable cost impact, or (2) develop an alternate capability with considerable schedule impact. Both these options have had considerable mission impact. The third alternate is to maintain proven capabilities in a cost effective manner. A risk informed decision process in terms of maintaining ablative TPS capabilities is feasible with planning and sustained support. Assured TPS availa-bility will allow the science community to propose competed missions with confidence and at a lower risk for selection. We submitted a white paper to the cur-rent Decadal Survey [2] on the need for and im-portance of sustainability. Since then, we have been formulating an executable cost effective strategy. The intent of this presentation is to outline the develop-ments since the submission of the white paper. NASA and DoD have had a working group related to critical technologies to periodically assess and make recommendations on at-risk items from a national need perspective. This inter-agency working group typically focuses on raw materials availability. While we agree that at-risk raw materials are important, fo-cus solely on them is not sufficient. Instead, we advo-cate for a broader focus that includes not only raw material but also industrial manufacturing and processing, and NASA expertise in design, testing and flight hardware certification. In this proposed presentation, we will give a brief overview of NASA’s ablative TPS history along with recent examples of atrophy to highlight case studies related to the PICA and Carbon-Phenolic TPS. We will present the rationale for sustaining PICA, HEEET and 3MDCP for future NASA missions. We will present an approach for how targeted small investments could lead to maintaining mission critical capabilities over long periods.

E Venkatapathy↗

Robotic Mars Sample Return: Risk Assessment and Analysis Report

A comparison of the risk associated with two alternative scenarios for a robotic Mars sample return mission was conducted. Two alternative mission scenarios were identified, the Jet Propulsion Lab (JPL) reference Mission and a mission proposed by Johnson Space Center (JSC). The JPL mission was characterized by two landers and an orbiter, and a Mars orbit rendezvous to retrieve the samples. The JSC mission (Direct/SEP) involves a solar electric propulsion (SEP) return to earth followed by a rendezvous with the space shuttle in earth orbit. A qualitative risk assessment to identify and characterize the risks, and a risk analysis to quantify the risks were conducted on these missions. Technical descriptions of the competing scenarios were developed in conjunction with NASA engineers and the sequence of events for each candidate mission was developed. Risk distributions associated with individual and combinations of events were consolidated using event tree analysis in conjunction with Monte Carlo techniques to develop probabilities of mission success for each of the various alternatives. The results were the probability of success of various end states for each candidate scenario. These end states ranged from complete success through various levels of partial success to complete failure. Overall probability of success for the Direct/SEP mission was determined to be 66% for the return of at least one sample and 58% for the JPL mission for the return of at least one sample cache. Values were also determined for intermediate events and end states as well as for the probability of violation of planetary protection. Overall mission planetary protection event probabilities of occurrence were determined to be 0.002% and 1.3% for the Direct/SEP and JPL Reference missions respectively.

Lalk, Thomas R.↗

Risk Balance: A Key Tool for Mission Operations Assurance

The Mission Operations Assurance (MOA) discipline actively participates as a project member to achieve their common objective of full mission success while also providing an independent risk assessment to the Project Manager and Office of Safety and Mission Success staff. The cornerstone element of MOA is the independent assessment of the risks the project faces in executing its mission. Especially as the project approaches critical mission events, it becomes imperative to clearly identify and assess the risks the project faces. Quite often there are competing options for the project to select from in deciding how to execute the event. An example includes choices between proven but aging hardware components and unused but unproven components. Timing of the event with respect to visual or telecommunications visibility can be a consideration in the case of Earth reentry or hazardous maneuver events. It is in such situations that MOA is called upon for a risk balance assessment or risk trade study to support their recommendation to the Project Manager for a specific option to select. In the following paragraphs we consider two such assessments, one for the Stardust capsule Earth return and the other for the choice of telecommunications system configuration for the EPOXI flyby of the comet Hartley 2. We discuss the development of the trade space for each project's scenario and characterize the risks of each possible option. The risk characterization we consider includes a determination of the severity or consequence of each risk if realized and the likelihood of its occurrence. We then examine the assessment process to arrive at a MOA recommendation. Finally we review each flight project's decision process and the outcome of their decisions.

operations↗

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance (OSMA) defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain/component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IV&V enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

IV&V↗

Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness Strengthens Assurance of Fault Management Systems

As spaceflight systems increase in complexity, Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of software criticality, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance. Adverse conditions (ACs) and specific vulnerabilities encountered by safety- and mission-critical software systems have been identified through efforts to reduce the risk posture of software-intensive NASA missions. Acknowledgement of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine software system resiliency are important aspects of hazard analysis and FM. A key component of assuring FM is an assessment of how well software addresses susceptibility to failure through consideration of ACs. Focus on significant risk predicted through experienced analysis conducted at the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program enables the scoping of effective assurance strategies with regard to overall asset protection of complex spaceflight as well as ground systems. Research efforts sponsored by NASA's Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domaincomponent, causal fault, and other key characteristics. Vulnerability in off-nominal situations, architectural design weaknesses, and unexpected or undesirable system behaviors in reaction to faults are curtailed with the awareness of ACs and risk-significant scenarios modeled for analysts through this database. Integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV enables interfacing with other tools and datasets, technical support, and accessibility across the Agency. This paper discusses the development of an improved workflow process utilizing this database for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance that critical software systems will safely and securely protect against faults and respond to ACs in order to achieve successful missions.

Fault management↗

The Systems Engineering Process for Human Support Technology Development

Systems engineering is designing and optimizing systems. This paper reviews the systems engineering process and indicates how it can be applied in the development of advanced human support systems. Systems engineering develops the performance requirements, subsystem specifications, and detailed designs needed to construct a desired system. Systems design is difficult, requiring both art and science and balancing human and technical considerations. The essential systems engineering activity is trading off and compromising between competing objectives such as performance and cost, schedule and risk. Systems engineering is not a complete independent process. It usually supports a system development project. This review emphasizes the NASA project management process as described in NASA Procedural Requirement (NPR) 7120.5B. The process is a top down phased approach that includes the most fundamental activities of systems engineering - requirements definition, systems analysis, and design. NPR 7120.5B also requires projects to perform the engineering analyses needed to ensure that the system will operate correctly with regard to reliability, safety, risk, cost, and human factors. We review the system development project process, the standard systems engineering design methodology, and some of the specialized systems analysis techniques. We will discuss how they could apply to advanced human support systems development. The purpose of advanced systems development is not directly to supply human space flight hardware, but rather to provide superior candidate systems that will be selected for implementation by future missions. The most direct application of systems engineering is in guiding the development of prototype and flight experiment hardware. However, anticipatory systems engineering of possible future flight systems would be useful in identifying the most promising development projects.

Jones, Harry↗

The Analysis of Rush Orders Risk in Supply Chain: A Simulation Approach

Satisfying customers by delivering demands at agreed time, with competitive prices, and in satisfactory quality level are crucial requirements for supply chain survival. Incidence of risks in supply chain often causes sudden disruptions in the processes and consequently leads to customers losing their trust in a company's competence. Rush orders are considered to be one of the main types of supply chain risks due to their negative impact on the overall performance, Using integrated definition modeling approaches (i.e. IDEF0 & IDEF3) and simulation modeling technique, a comprehensive integrated model has been developed to assess rush order risks and examine two risk mitigation strategies. Detailed functions sequence and objects flow were conceptually modeled to reflect on macro and micro levels of the studied supply chain. Discrete event simulation models were then developed to assess and investigate the mitigation strategies of rush order risks, the objective of this is to minimize order cycle time and cost.

Mahfouz, Amr↗

Directed Research in Bone Discipline: Refining Previous Research Observations for Space Medicine

Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry bone mass density, as a sole index, is an insufficient surrogate for fracture; Clinical Practice Guidelines using bone mass density (both World Health Organization and FRAX) are not specific for complicated subjects such as young, healthy persons following prolonged exposure to skeletal unloading (i.e. an attribute of spaceflight); Research data suggest that spaceflight induces changes to astronaut bones that could be profound, possibly irreversible and unlike age-related bone loss on Earth.; There is a need to objectively assess factors across human physiology that are also influenced by spaceflight (e.g., muscle) that contribute to fracture risk. Some of these objective assessments may require innovative technologies, analyses and modeling.; Astronauts are also exposed to novel situations that may overload their bones highlighting a need integrate biomechanics of physical activities into risk assessments.; As we accumulate data, which reflects the biomechanical competence of bone under specific mechanically-loaded scenarios (even activities of daily living), BONE expects Bone Fracture Module to be more sensitive and/or have less uncertainty in its assessments of fracture probability.; Fracture probability drives the requirement for countermeasures. Level of evidence will unlikely be obtained; hence, the Bone Research and Clinical Advisory Panel (like a Data Safety Monitoring Board) will provide the recommendations.

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

Ares Project Technology Assessment: Approach and Tools

Technology assessments provide a status of the development maturity of specific technologies. Along with benefit analysis, the risks the project assumes can be quantified. Normally due to budget constraints, the competing technologies are prioritized and decisions are made which ones to fund. A detailed technology development plan is produced for the selected technologies to provide a roadmap to reach the desired maturity by the project s critical design review. Technology assessments can be conducted for both technology only tasks or for product development programs. This paper is primarily biased toward the product development programs. The paper discusses the Ares Project s approach to technology assessment. System benefit analysis, risk assessment, technology prioritization, and technology readiness assessment are addressed. A description of the technology readiness level tool being used is provided.

Hueter, Uwe↗

Assurance of Fault Management: Risk-Significant Adverse Condition Awareness

Fault Management (FM) systems are ranked high in risk-based assessment of criticality within flight software, emphasizing the importance of establishing highly competent domain expertise to provide assurance for NASA projects, especially as spaceflight systems continue to increase in complexity. Insight into specific characteristics of FM architectures seen embedded within safety- and mission-critical software systems analyzed by the NASA Independent Verification Validation (IVV) Program has been enhanced with an FM Technical Reference (TR) suite. Benefits are aimed beyond the IVV community to those that seek ways to efficiently and effectively provide software assurance to reduce the FM risk posture of NASA and other space missions. The identification of particular FM architectures, visibility, and associated IVV techniques provides a TR suite that enables greater assurance that critical software systems will adequately protect against faults and respond to adverse conditions. The role FM has with regard to overall asset protection of flight software systems is being addressed with the development of an adverse condition (AC) database encompassing flight software vulnerabilities.Identification of potential off-nominal conditions and analysis to determine how a system responds to these conditions are important aspects of hazard analysis and fault management. Understanding what ACs the mission may face, and ensuring they are prevented or addressed is the responsibility of the assurance team, which necessarily should have insight into ACs beyond those defined by the project itself. Research efforts sponsored by NASAs Office of Safety and Mission Assurance defined terminology, categorized data fields, and designed a baseline repository that centralizes and compiles a comprehensive listing of ACs and correlated data relevant across many NASA missions. This prototype tool helps projects improve analysis by tracking ACs, and allowing queries based on project, mission type, domain component, causal fault, and other key characteristics. The repository has a firm structure, initial collection of data, and an interface established for informational queries, with plans for integration within the Enterprise Architecture at NASA IVV, enabling support and accessibility across the Agency. The development of an improved workflow process for adaptive, risk-informed FM assurance is currently underway.

Software Verification & Validation↗

Intravenous Fluid Generation Mini (IVGEN Mini) Summary and Related Research

This paper assists the ongoing effort to support NASA Glenn’s mission and its Human Research Program (HRP) core competency by investigating a technology demonstration to mitigate human health and performance risks during space exploration. Crew health and performance are critical to successful human exploration beyond low Earth orbit. Four hundred forty-two medical conditions have been identified and may present and require treatment during long-duration space exploration missions. One hundred fifteen out of four hundred forty-two identified medical conditions would require medical fluid treatment, generating a need for an on-demand or continuous supply of medical fluid. Intravenous Fluid Generation Mini (IVGEN Mini) is a technology demonstration designed to demonstrate a water purification and pharmaceutical mixing system that can make intravenous (IV) fluid in microgravity and builds on the success of the original Intravenous Fluid Generation for Exploration Missions (IVGEN) experiment, which flew on the ISS in March 2010. IVGEN Mini seeks to increase the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and the overall function of the original IVGEN experiment to reduce the dependence of a needed medical consumable and streamline the size of the device and process to generate IV fluid IVGEN Mini is funded by the Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) directorate via the Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) as a part of their mission to advance exploration medical technologies to benefit the overall health and safety of crews for beyond low Earth orbit space missions. This paper discusses a collection of related research topics such as microgravity fluid mixing and studying past efforts of IV fluid usage in extreme environments to aid IVGEN Mini project scientists in developing the IVGEN Mini technology.

iv generation↗

Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS) Parts Risk and Reliability User and Application Guide

All COTS parts are not created equal. Because they are not created equal, the notion that one can force the commercial industry to follow a set of military specifications and standards, along with the certifications, audits and qualification commitments that go with them, is unrealistic for the sale of a few parts. The part technologies that are Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) certified or Military Specification (MS) qualified, are several generations behind the state-of-the-art high-performance parts that are required for the compact, higher performing systems for the next generation of spacecraft and instruments. The majority of the part suppliers are focused on the portion of the market that is producing high-tech commercial products and systems. To that end, in order to compete in the high performance and leading edge advanced technological systems, an alternative approach to risk assessment and reliability prediction must be considered.

White, Mark↗

Progress in Measurement of Carbon Dioxide Using a Broadband LIDAR

Innovative active system using advanced source technology development will enable precise daytime or nighttime measurements of column CO2. Directly responds to NRC DS ASCENDS mission. Number of lasers is reduced compared to competing technologies which reduces the complexity of sensor and thus the cost and risk of failure. Knowledge gained from previously developed passive sensor decreases the risk and cost of the present lidar system development. The instrument can play a significant role as an intercomparison instrument for OCO (Orbiting Carbon Observatory) if it is rebuilt and launched as well as other laser based instruments under development for participation in ASCENDS. It can play a role as an airborne instrument in its own right in addressing the problems of scale arising from differences between point observations by the existing ground based CO2 network and wider area measurements obtained by satellites. Developed 2.0 micron broadband system as well and will compare performance of both systems to choose optimal approach for ASCENDS. Have begun development of approach that uses array detectors instead of APD. This approach will have lower noise than APD and may simplify design of the detector optical train.

Heaps, William S.↗

Ablative TPS Sustainment to Enable NASA's Future Robotic Missions

Since 1960s NASA’s missions have spanned the entire solar system, from Apollo to Jupiter entry ~50 km/s. Ablative TPS has been critical to the success. NASA’s missions will continue to be innovative, one-of-a kind and at the same time, competed mission selection process requires technology readiness to be high to ensure cost and risks are better understood. If missions require new TPS technology, it takes a decade and significant resources to develop them. Competitive proposal tend to use existing ablative TPS. Sustainability of ablative TPS is then essential. This talk will focus on approaches to address the future challenges.

Ethiraj Venkatapathy↗

Developing Compelling and Science-Focused Mission Concepts for NASA Competed Mission Proposals

Since the mid 1990s, NASA has used a competitive selection process to initiate new mission concepts. These competed missions are motivated by high-value science with low implementation and cost risks. Selectable mission concepts require highly focused science approaches—delivering high quality science “on a budget.” Prospective Principal Investigators (PIs) need to convince NASA that the science they are proposing is both compelling and has high programmatic value. Unfortunately, many of these PIs are not trained in the communication skills needed for “selling” a mission concept to stakeholders. This requires a proposal that presents an investigation in an accessible, relatable, authentic, and believable way. It is the onus of the proposing PI to convince NASA of the value of their particular science concept in a competitive environment, addressing any pre-conceived notions reviewers might have about the concept’s value, complexities, urgency, and other impediments to understanding.The importance of this can be seen in the NASA-sponsored PI Launchpad (Nov 2019 & Jun 2021)1 which was designed to help early career scientists understand the skills, methods, processes, and resources needed to develop compelling science mission concepts; as well as in JPL’s update to their concept maturity model (Jan 2020) which included the addition of Story and Strategy dimensions. This paper provides guidance to assist prospective PIs in developing compelling, science-focused mission concepts. It will provide direction for communicating concepts more clearly to make science objectives more relatable to both reviewers and a broader audience, improving the probability of selection.

Ziemer, John↗